KellysHeroes
Footballguy
pretty sure Doobs role will decrease, Watson is basically gone; Reed seems to be the only WR that will have a role next to Golden
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WR Matthew Golden, GB (2 Viewers)
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joey
Footballguy
From your above posts, and from my previous post….I'm rooting for UNlucky.
Ray Barboni
Footballguy
Heard an interesting take the other day on a podcast - might’ve been the football guys pod? I dunno.
But one of the concerns was the “crowded” WR room in GB. The one dude put it pretty nicely when he said “ if Golden hits, the rest of the WR’s on that team won’t matter”
So true, and a great way to think about it when drafting Golden. No, he’s not your prototypical “alpha WR” … but if he’s commanding the targets in an upcoming offense? Well worth it.
Hell I don’t think the packers have drafted a WR in the 1st round in over 20yrs
But one of the concerns was the “crowded” WR room in GB. The one dude put it pretty nicely when he said “ if Golden hits, the rest of the WR’s on that team won’t matter”
So true, and a great way to think about it when drafting Golden. No, he’s not your prototypical “alpha WR” … but if he’s commanding the targets in an upcoming offense? Well worth it.
Hell I don’t think the packers have drafted a WR in the 1st round in over 20yrs
Snoopy
Footballguy
Javon Walker 2002.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
It’s a case where it’s crowded because other than Reed, the other guys aren’t good (or with Watson not reliable). It seems GB would be wise to try and focus the passing game in on Reed, Golden and the TEs. My worry for fantasy team is even if Golden is good, he’s better for the offense than he is for statistical production.
Ray Barboni
Footballguy
Sure .. but like I said, or the podcast man said - if Golden hits? I highly doubt there much value in any of the ancillary WR’s.
Ideally, it would be Golden, Reed, Kraft and then the RB’s.
Watson, Wicks, Melton, Musgrave would all be depth for them.
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
This kid is just getting disrespected as I landed him with the 13th pick in 2 drafts. He ran 4.29 and reminds me a lot of Brandon Cooks, not worried about the "crowded" WR room.... GB knows what they're doing and if they didn't feel they had a problem there they certainly wouldn't have used a mid 1st to take a WR. Kid should emerge by mid-season
osubuckeyeman
Footballguy
I took him at 1.11 in a 1QB dynasty ppr performance scoring, if that helps anyone considering selecting him.
sushinsky4tsar
Footballguy
Welcome aboard, Golden.
Just took him at 2.2 in FFPC 1QB TEP league.
From many of the comments in here, it sounds like I should’ve waited to grab him with my 4th round pick
Good value there. I'm debating using the 1.12 if he's available, but will definitely be on board if a 1st round WR falls to my 2.3.
As it pertains to 1.12, really trying to figure out if the TEs offer any more than a marginal upgrade to Kraft or Kincaid in a non-TEP. I think it's probably just more of the same but leaning slightly towards Loveland over Golden for now.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
WR56 in redraft leagues according to Fantasy Pros
-Christian Watson is likely OUT for 2025 or am I misinformed? Do you think Green Bay is banking on Watson? I don't
I have him completely off my list after the ligament tears late last season
-Jayden Reed
He is WR46 at FP right now,
64/790/8TDs and 55/850/6TDs his first couple seasons in the NFL. On avg, he plays about 59% of the snaps, some weeks it's 55 and others it might be 63.
Reed is the Slot Wide Receiver, a pretty darn good one but slot nonetheless.
-Let's take a brief look at the outside WRs, Watson is on the shelf, let's see here, oh yes Romeo Doubs let's have a closer look.
Facts: Doubs 59/670/8TDs in 2023, last year he got into arguments with coaches and front office from my POV as an NFL fan and I would be surprised if he were to stay with the team
At the least, I don't see him in the Packers long term plans. When you look at his body of work, it's kind of weak and it's not like other teams are knocking on the Packers door for trades.
600 yds and 4 TD spread over 12 starts doesn't help his cause from last year either, no way Green Bay is satisfied here
-Back to Golden, he's already being penciled in as one of the starting outside WRs and I think very quickly he will rise to WR1 status, even as a rookie which isn't common
But in recent years we have seen some stellar rookie numbers posted and it's not uncommon to see rookie WRs get more and more involved.
Weeks 7-11 and Week 17, Watson as a rookie WR in Green Bay saw over 85-90% of the offensive snaps in those games and posted good numbers so don't overlook Golden
Even in redraft leagues I like his upside almost as much as. I like Egbuka in Tampa Bay, might even say Golden will post better numbers in redraft leagues
Golden is young and still improving, a true Junior last year when he posted almost 1,000 yds and 9 TDs
Packers have a strong plan for him and I expect WR3 level numbers from him as a rookie
60+/900/6-8 TDs as a rookie
-Christian Watson is likely OUT for 2025 or am I misinformed? Do you think Green Bay is banking on Watson? I don't
I have him completely off my list after the ligament tears late last season
-Jayden Reed
He is WR46 at FP right now,
64/790/8TDs and 55/850/6TDs his first couple seasons in the NFL. On avg, he plays about 59% of the snaps, some weeks it's 55 and others it might be 63.
Reed is the Slot Wide Receiver, a pretty darn good one but slot nonetheless.
-Let's take a brief look at the outside WRs, Watson is on the shelf, let's see here, oh yes Romeo Doubs let's have a closer look.
Facts: Doubs 59/670/8TDs in 2023, last year he got into arguments with coaches and front office from my POV as an NFL fan and I would be surprised if he were to stay with the team
At the least, I don't see him in the Packers long term plans. When you look at his body of work, it's kind of weak and it's not like other teams are knocking on the Packers door for trades.
600 yds and 4 TD spread over 12 starts doesn't help his cause from last year either, no way Green Bay is satisfied here
-Back to Golden, he's already being penciled in as one of the starting outside WRs and I think very quickly he will rise to WR1 status, even as a rookie which isn't common
But in recent years we have seen some stellar rookie numbers posted and it's not uncommon to see rookie WRs get more and more involved.
Weeks 7-11 and Week 17, Watson as a rookie WR in Green Bay saw over 85-90% of the offensive snaps in those games and posted good numbers so don't overlook Golden
Even in redraft leagues I like his upside almost as much as. I like Egbuka in Tampa Bay, might even say Golden will post better numbers in redraft leagues
Golden is young and still improving, a true Junior last year when he posted almost 1,000 yds and 9 TDs
Packers have a strong plan for him and I expect WR3 level numbers from him as a rookie
60+/900/6-8 TDs as a rookie
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pinkstapler
Footballguy
I think those are fair expectations so long as he establishes himself as the leader of the pack in that room; but I'd agree that's also a fair expectation to have considering his draft capital and the role he played in college. He seems like their direct replacement to Watson, as no other WR on that team was really a field stretcher proficient at those deep routes and with the speed to really attack NFL secondaries.
My concerns are more the passing offense in general. They were 30th in passing attempts last year; the rest of their numbers being middle of the pack instead of bottom speak to a very high efficiency. But I worry it may also be a signal for some regression unless they up those attempts a bit. That could be a safe bet too though considering their investment in two more WRs and even their work horse back calling for the team to get a real WR1. He might not want 300+ rushing attempts again haha.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
I felt Jacobs was value at his ADP last year, this year I feel he is sky high and the Packers have a 2nd round RB from the '24 Draft, Marshawn Lloyd who is going to see touches
I also think they want to see if Love is truly worth that contract or not before the QB class next season.
They did go 11-6 and Love fought thru injuries, the Packers had to load up at WR to take away any excuses.
Wicks had the most targets of any receiver last season, that will not happen again
Wicks-Doubs-Reed-Kraft all had between 70-76 targets, I believe that will change a lot this season
The Packers need for one outside WR to emerge and I think Golden is prime to be that in 2025, not a sure bet but he is going to get 1st crack at it
Reed and Kraft will continue to work the Slot and middle of the field, Kraft is prime for a big Year 3 after 700/7TD a year ago.
That could also shake things up and force coverages that will open up the outside slots where Golden can exploit.
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joey
Footballguy
Seeing that your league is non-TEP, and you already have Kincaid and Kraft, I go with the first round WR at 1.12.Welcome aboard, Golden.
Just took him at 2.2 in FFPC 1QB TEP league.
From many of the comments in here, it sounds like I should’ve waited to grab him with my 4th round pick
Good value there. I'm debating using the 1.12 if he's available, but will definitely be on board if a 1st round WR falls to my 2.3.
As it pertains to 1.12, really trying to figure out if the TEs offer any more than a marginal upgrade to Kraft or Kincaid in a non-TEP. I think it's probably just more of the same but leaning slightly towards Loveland over Golden for now.
ETA: fwiw, Golden went at 1.12 in our SharkPool FFPC 1QB TEP league.
If you got him anywhere from #10 on (assuming dynasty draft) I think you got a steal. Very easy path to being the #1 in GB.
Max Power
Footballguy
Took at #14 overall. Surprised Skattabo went before him even.
I'm hoping the #1 in GB turns out to be more consistent than it has been. I still own Reed in that same league as well and he's been difficult to own. I missed out on his huge week 1 and he was basically a low end WR3 the rest of the year with half a dozen duds mixed in. Every single GB WR has multiple weeks a year they completely disappear and I hate that rollercoaster.
I'm not a massive believer in his talent to be a true #1 either. Hopefully I'm wrong.
Boston
Footballguy
The key will be for him to turn into the #1 WR in Green Bay...all the Packer WRs are or have been intriguing but for various reasons they have not been able to get to that next level and from a fantasy perspective it has been very frustrating...I think Green Bay using a #1 on him is a pretty big statement that they believe he has the ability to turn into their #1...for where he is going in a lot of rookie drafts he is well-worth the investment.
I think the Green Bay #1 issue has been more about the players than anything else. I think all of Reed, Doubs, Watson, Wicks are best suited to be #3 types.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
x.com
x.com
x.com
The Draft Room
This is an elite separator with savvy route-running, impressive ball-tracking, and sneaky contested-catch ability
x.com
@TommyK_NFLDraft
Positives
Good releases at the LOS to beat press.
Negatives
Noticeably disrupted against contact and jams when he can't separate cleanly.
x.com
NFL Draft Files
Matthew Golden put the nation on notice with a 4.29 yard 40 yard dash…
But how’s the tape? Well…
elite separator
Stefon Diggs typa player.
Jacob Gibbs
Texas WR Matthew Golden
Disappointing stats
Open often
He's dangerous as a mover and already has refinement to his route tree necessary to create massive separation wins (vs. Georgia)
Reel Analytics
Texas WR Matthew Golden finds space and makes a play!
This clip highlights his ability to create separation and get open. His IGA Score® of 73.4 ranks in the 73rd percentile among WRs, reflecting his in-game athleticism and playmaking ability.
#IGAScore #NFLDraft
The blurb that came out today suggested he wasn't very good against man coverage. I had not heard anything to suggest as such until today. There was nothing but consistent drumbeats about his elite route running. Now, I understand he may be better vs zone, but is 68.5% really such a bad thing? The words "creates easy separation" are everywhere throughout his scouting reports. I sort of assume that implies more than just zone. If it's an area to work on, fine, what WR couldn't work on their skills vs man coverage? Doesn't seem like a weakness so much as not his greatest strength. And there is a difference. He looks like he has all the tools he needs to perform against man coverage but as with all rookies that will be a rite of passage. Anyway just wanted to point out *nobody* has said he is bad against man coverage. What is Harmon's threshold there? 70% shhhhhht
pinkstapler
Footballguy
In general, I believe Harmon considers the thresholds for upside 70% for man, 75% for press, 80% for zone. I might have press and man flipped though TBH. More importantly though, these grades are not equivalent across the three coverages types, and the TLDR of that is 1% point in man grade is worth about 1.5-1.75 (150%-175%) the value of the same increase in zone scoring. So while a percentage point or two might seem insignificant, it's not, especially when looking at his man coverage ratings. A ~5% point grade difference is basically the difference between league average and the elite tier. And in general, he views man success rates as the most important (having the most correlation) with success, and ultimately much more important for outside WRs/what we would consider WR1s. To come right back against that though, slot WRs have been capable of still being WR1s. ARSB scored a 71.6% against man in his 2024 season. So a 3% difference from Golden; but to reiterate those 3% points are the difference between 67th percentile for ARSB to Goldens 44th percentile.x.com
x.com
The Draft Room
This is an elite separator with savvy route-running, impressive ball-tracking, and sneaky contested-catch abilityx.com
@TommyK_NFLDraft
Positives
Negatives
x.com
NFL Draft Files
Matthew Golden put the nation on notice with a 4.29 yard 40 yard dash…
But how’s the tape? Well…
Stefon Diggs typa player.Jacob Gibbs
Texas WR Matthew Golden
Disappointing stats
Open often
He's dangerous as a mover and already has refinement to his route tree necessary to create massive separation wins (vs. GeorgiaReel Analytics
This clip highlights his ability to create separation and get open. His IGA Score® of 73.4 ranks in the 73rd percentile among WRs, reflecting his in-game athleticism and playmaking ability.
#IGAScore #NFLDraftThe blurb that came out today suggested he wasn't very good against man coverage. I had not heard anything to suggest as such until today. There was nothing but consistent drumbeats about his elite route running. Now, I understand he may be better vs zone, but is 68.5% really such a bad thing? The words "creates easy separation" are everywhere throughout his scouting reports. I sort of assume that implies more than just zone. If it's an area to work on, fine, what WR couldn't work on their skills vs man coverage? Doesn't seem like a weakness so much as not his greatest strength. And there is a difference. He looks like he has all the tools he needs to perform against man coverage but as with all rookies that will be a rite of passage. Anyway just wanted to point out *nobody* has said he is bad against man coverage. What is Harmon's threshold there? 70% shhhhhht
For Golden specifically, I would guess he would agree with your statement "Doesn't seem like a weakness so much as not his greatest strength". From his Golden profile: "All that said, Golden isn’t a total slouch against man coverage at all. His 68.5% success rate vs. man coverage is a perfectly fine result. For comparison’s sake, along the small and fast but can play some real wide receiver archetype, his success rate vs. man coverage puts him just between the prospect scores of Tank Dell (68.7%) and Xavier Worthy (68.4%)."
And IMO, he would be the first to tell you the scores they give people coming out of college are just doing the best with the information they have, as there are so many other factors that weigh in. Not only is college vs pros very different, but one college team vs another tends to also be MUCH more different than any NFL team vs another NFL team. Just much more variation and impacting factors in college. So really, his rookie year scores will be multiplicatively more telling than these college ones.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Good post. I would add, and this is an AND not a BUT, that those couple % point differences are also not necessarily statistically significantly different. I don't mean in terms of what the difference represents, I agree with your take and understanding of how those small gaps are actually much bigger than they appear. I agree with that.In general, I believe Harmon considers the thresholds for upside 70% for man, 75% for press, 80% for zone. I might have press and man flipped though TBH. More importantly though, these grades are not equivalent across the three coverages types, and the TLDR of that is 1% point in man grade is worth about 1.5-1.75 (150%-175%) the value of the same increase in zone scoring. So while a percentage point or two might seem insignificant, it's not, especially when looking at his man coverage ratings. A ~5% point grade difference is basically the difference between league average and the elite tier. And in general, he views man success rates as the most important (having the most correlation) with success, and ultimately much more important for outside WRs/what we would consider WR1s. To come right back against that though, slot WRs have been capable of still being WR1s. ARSB scored a 71.6% against man in his 2024 season. So a 3% difference from Golden; but to reiterate those 3% points are the difference between 67th percentile for ARSB to Goldens 44th percentile.x.com
x.com
The Draft Room
This is an elite separator with savvy route-running, impressive ball-tracking, and sneaky contested-catch abilityx.com
@TommyK_NFLDraft
Positives
Negatives
x.com
NFL Draft Files
Matthew Golden put the nation on notice with a 4.29 yard 40 yard dash…
But how’s the tape? Well…
Stefon Diggs typa player.Jacob Gibbs
Texas WR Matthew Golden
Disappointing stats
Open often
He's dangerous as a mover and already has refinement to his route tree necessary to create massive separation wins (vs. GeorgiaReel Analytics
This clip highlights his ability to create separation and get open. His IGA Score® of 73.4 ranks in the 73rd percentile among WRs, reflecting his in-game athleticism and playmaking ability.
#IGAScore #NFLDraftThe blurb that came out today suggested he wasn't very good against man coverage. I had not heard anything to suggest as such until today. There was nothing but consistent drumbeats about his elite route running. Now, I understand he may be better vs zone, but is 68.5% really such a bad thing? The words "creates easy separation" are everywhere throughout his scouting reports. I sort of assume that implies more than just zone. If it's an area to work on, fine, what WR couldn't work on their skills vs man coverage? Doesn't seem like a weakness so much as not his greatest strength. And there is a difference. He looks like he has all the tools he needs to perform against man coverage but as with all rookies that will be a rite of passage. Anyway just wanted to point out *nobody* has said he is bad against man coverage. What is Harmon's threshold there? 70% shhhhhht
For Golden specifically, I would guess he would agree with your statement "Doesn't seem like a weakness so much as not his greatest strength". From his Golden profile: "All that said, Golden isn’t a total slouch against man coverage at all. His 68.5% success rate vs. man coverage is a perfectly fine result. For comparison’s sake, along the small and fast but can play some real wide receiver archetype, his success rate vs. man coverage puts him just between the prospect scores of Tank Dell (68.7%) and Xavier Worthy (68.4%)."
And IMO, he would be the first to tell you the scores they give people coming out of college are just doing the best with the information they have, as there are so many other factors that weigh in. Not only is college vs pros very different, but one college team vs another tends to also be MUCH more different than any NFL team vs another NFL team. Just much more variation and impacting factors in college. So really, his rookie year scores will be multiplicatively more telling than these college ones.
I also would say that in medicine or nuclear science or rocketry, that those hard thresholds should be hard thresholds period. But in fantasy football, I think we can be just a little bit more pliable.
I'm not saying Harmon was/is erroneous in any way, rather that this is a difficult thing to get into quantifiable useful form, and that dude has done more to move that concept forward than any other three people in the industry. In practical terms though, the difference between 68.5 and 70.0 is maybe one or two catches in a career college sample as small as Goldens, to his detractors' point. Or one or two more routes won. It just isn't significant enough to bump anyone into or out of a scouting tier. And it is significantly more noisy data than say the medicine or nuclear analogies. So to say one WR came back with a score of 68.5 and another came back with 70.0 is still good process, but that gap isn't necessarily statistically different given the confidence% of Harmon's collection process. Which is high. But much less than 100% confidence probably less than 80%. Again, in terms of the precision of the data collection, not what the results represent.
Now that said, if he really is below that threshold in reality then it is something to consider, but for me it's about checking boxes and the preponderance of evidence. The success vs. man box is a really big one, but he is more than close enough for me. As for the landing spot, IDK what to make of it. I feel like there is going to be a third Packer WR that gets left out and probably deserves more. I think they're a much better corps than people give credit. Am assuming Christian Watson is long gone when I say that.
massraider
Footballguy
It's as messy a situation as there is.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I don't think it's as messy as most. Romeo Doubs is on the last year of his contract and has been a problem in the locker room already. Watson is in his final year, has underwhelmed and been plagued by injuries. Neither guy likely has a future with the team and could lose their role or even roster spot this season. Wicks has been given chances but he's not done much with them.
My guess is they use rotation of Wicks, Doubs and Watson at X depending if they want size or someone to threaten the defense with their vertical speed. Reed will mostly play from the slot and gets a diet version of ARSB, Deebo usage. Golden gets the flanker role.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Golden has actually fallen now to WR70 on FP, if you scroll up to May 11, I jumped on Golden when he was going as WR56
I play in a lot of 10-team redrafts, WR70 likely wouldn't even be drafted
I will be targeting him on every team at that price
I expect him to rise a lot when camps open and it becomes clear he is going to start outside for the Packers
I am not coming off my projections from my previous post
I play in a lot of 10-team redrafts, WR70 likely wouldn't even be drafted
I will be targeting him on every team at that price
I expect him to rise a lot when camps open and it becomes clear he is going to start outside for the Packers
I am not coming off my projections from my previous post
pinkstapler
Footballguy
100% agree with this and he's backed it up too. I believe his sample size for full profiles is 8 games. But depending on how many times he faced man coverage across those 8 games, sometimes 2-3 more successful routes (or failed routes) will jump your score a full percentage point or more. You see the same thing to an ever larger extent with his route tree success breakdowns. A guy might be in the yellow on the corner route, but if he ran even one more of those routes across the sample and won that route, it would have bumped them up into the green tier.
It's all just more info to add into the full profile. I love Harmon's stuff bc it's been among the more predictable data I've worked with; but it still isn't making or breaking my decisions (and I don't think he'd say it should for anyone). I still love watching film; and I don't really do data stuff myself other than pull it from sources and spreadsheet it just so I can see all my info in one spot. And there are film guys who do almost 0 data driven research who I put up there with Harmon's RP data in my own personal weighted scale of what I find to be positively predictive.
Looking at everything on Golden I found myself leaning more towards a WR2 with potential upside for WR1 that will depend slightly on him improving in some areas; but more than anything IMO it will depend on usage and opportunity. I didn't love his work against press coverage on film and found that to be a concern more so than success against man. So it makes me just hope the Packers play him a decent amount from the slot (say 30% or more), and also move him around the formation (esp flanker off the line) getting him good releases and putting him in position to not have to beat an opponents CB1 pressing him on the line on 90% of his routes. I think it'll be the difference between him looking like a Jordan Addison or looking like a Chris Olave. But to points you and other posters have made, considering where his ADP in rookie start ups has been falling to, hard to not say he's still a great value pick with either of those outcomes. Hopefully Stenavich has a really solid gameplan because it feels to me the past few seasons the way they employ their WRs is a little.... aimless I guess might be the word. IMO it's been hard to identify what exactly they are even trying to do, and that it changes several times over the course of the season. Similarly, Jordan Love hasn't exactly been a model of consistency. Those two things def worry me more than Golden himself.
And I'm also a Jayden Reed-stan haha, so I do still believe he's the best WR on the team, but if the team doesn't believe that it's a moot point. At this rate I hope he either gets traded/released to another team. Or they refocus the offense and narrow their scope to just build around Golden, Reed, and Jacobs with maybe some Tucker Kraft sprinkled in. Not to say the other guys aren't good or have their own upside, but IMO they gotta tailor the offense to a specific skill position group, get them the majority of the practice reps, and give them the 85%+ snap count to perform. Enough with the revolving door. I think if you pluck Reed and Golden off this team and give them to Ben Johnson or Sean McVay they could both be putting up WR1/high end WR2 fantasy numbers.
