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WR Michael Pittman, IND (1 Viewer)

menobrown said:
None of what you are saying here sways a single thing in my thought process.

I don't want a red zone target. I don't play non-PPR fantasy. I want a guy with some volume.  Mike Williams scored 10 TD's in 2018 in 2018 and just about every single one of them was on my bench because I can't trust someone getting that volume.  I referenced VJAX already, he was Rivers #1 WR for years and got about 5 targets a game from time he became a full time starter until end of his time.

I drafted Pittman a few times because I do believe in the talent. I'm not so enamored of the situation.
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Not only is the landing spot not great (it's not bad either) because of the competition for targets but we don't know if Rivers will even be back after this season. 

 
massraider said:
Vincent Jackson was a monster, 6'5", 230. Pittman isn't nearly that big, which is not a negative. 
Closer to Dwayne Bowe to me. 220 lbs, runs 4.5-4.6.

There's a pretty distinct line around 1.12-1.13 to me, I cannot see ranking many more players than that over Pittman.
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Based on combine VJAX has him by about 1.5" and 15 pounds. Whether or not that constitutes nearly as big is I guess open to interpretation but for sure VJAX is bigger.

I've said this before in here this thread, and others, but Pittman's height/weight, 40, and vertical are almost dead on similar as Mike Evans.

And lastly funny you mention 1.12/1.13 because I mentioned I drafted him twice and that's exactly were I drafted him both times. But fwiw he was and is my 10th ranked player.

 
I actually have a well above-par grade on Pittman's situation. I'd even call it outstanding.

Really nothing to do with Rivers. They did take a pretty nice QB prospect in Eason, but it's more to do with Reich/Ballard.

 
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Every team has big plans for the player they draft. Think we're splitting hairs though. He's a good prospect in a ok now/good or great situation later. I wouldn't feel bad drafting him around where he's going. I just see a few more hurdles than you guys see. So there's more uncertainty in the situation for me. 

 
To be clear, I'm talking dynasty. Hilton is essentially a non-issue for me (as it relates to my dynasty evaluation of Pittman).

 
Perhaps people aren't focusing enough on the coaching. Frank Reich is considered a pretty creative offensive mind. He also wants to sling it around. He has also said he expects Rivers to play more than 1 season, and said he thinks Pittman might be the best WR in this class. So there is a lot to like about his situation, even if Rivers only plays a year or two. A former QB isn't going to settle for crappy QB play. He probably took the job because of Luck..and he brought in Rivers and drafted a QB. I just took Pittman at 2.2 in one of my 12 team PPR dynasty leagues over Mims and Aiyuk and feel pretty good with that decision. 

 
It's going to be funny when Rivers ignores him the next two years. He'll be running wide open across the middle and Rivers will force it to a double covered T.Y. 

 
ffmail4me said:
Perhaps people aren't focusing enough on the coaching. Frank Reich is considered a pretty creative offensive mind. He also wants to sling it around. He has also said he expects Rivers to play more than 1 season, and said he thinks Pittman might be the best WR in this class. So there is a lot to like about his situation, even if Rivers only plays a year or two. A former QB isn't going to settle for crappy QB play. He probably took the job because of Luck..and he brought in Rivers and drafted a QB. I just took Pittman at 2.2 in one of my 12 team PPR dynasty leagues over Mims and Aiyuk and feel pretty good with that decision. 
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What is he supposed to say?

"Glad you asked Chris.  I think we'll be lucky to get 13 games from Rivers, he's pretty damn old but we figured what the hell $25M for 13 games is like paying $32 for 16 games and that's what Russell Wilson gets."

"Matthew Pittman?  Yeah he's ok.  We had him ranked WR7 and got him as the 8th guy off the board so we're pretty stoked.  The guy we were really hoping for though was Tee Higgins and we got our hearts ripped out when he went a pick ahead of us.  We'll make it work with Pittston though".

 
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Dr. BD said:
I'm not terribly high on Pittman's profile. He had a late breakout age, and is not an early declare, but is in a fairly good situation with Hilton presumably moving on. But haven't we been here before, just 12 months ago? Everyone was drooling over the Colts' 2nd round, non early declare WR, with a poor breakout age (also with a poor dominator rating)? I like Pittman better than that guy, but Pittman's profile is still not promising toward becoming a fantasy WR1 or 2. I'll take him early 2nd as many of the WRs in that tier/ADP don't have great profiles, and he has one of the best situations of all of them.
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I've been looking at Pittman in this regard for some time now. I'm a big believer in the early declaration/early breakout rule even compared to Draft position it comes out on top more times than not. Like all things it's just a few pieces of puzzle (Huge pieces but pieces nonetheless) so with that being said I wanted to go back and re-examine Pittman in light of what we know.

His Freshman year: The Trojans ran with Max Browne at the beginning of the year and he killed everyone’s productivity including JuJu Smith-Schuster who struggled early on. They started the year 1-3 (getting totally embarrassed by Alabama 52-6 in week one. The coaches tried a few different rotations with the more veteran receivers, then they switched to Sam Darnold but Pittman Jr. was still missing for another almost full year.

His Sophomore year: An ankle injury derailed what should have been a fast start to his sophomore campaign. Pittman Jr. leaped over the top of his own teammate in practice, but came down and twisted his ankle pretty severely. It was so bad that he couldn’t play even near 100% until October of that season. It took Pittman some time to get healthy and prove himself, but by December he worked his way into starting snaps, finishing the year with 10 catches and 215 yards in the last two games against Stanford and Ohio State.

His Junior and Senior year: This was quite a different story though, he had finally established his dominance as a lead option thanks to his ability to simply stay healthy. As a junior Pittman showed he could be a deep threat and YAC monster. As a senior he showed development in his route tree and knack to be a target vacuum racking up 101 receptions in just 13 games!

Pittman’s career market share comes in just under 29%, so he falls in line with most college receivers (78% of them). His final season receiving yards total easily eclipsed 933 yards, so he doesn’t fall in the “doomed” category for receivers. But, given he logged more than 4.8 receptions per game and will be 23 by the end of his first NFL season things don’t look great after all. Pittman falls into a tier of receivers that hit around 6% of the time. *Nervous Face Emoji*

This does not mean that Pittman can’t hit. It simply means that Pittman’s profile is truly strange for a receiver prospect that many believe could still very well “hit” at the next level. And given the context that led to his slow start we may want to give him the benefit of the doubt from a production standpoint (at least slightly).

Personally, I'm on the fence, if he was completely healthy, had a "decent" QB then he'd probably be a HARD PASS but I believe the jury is still out on this one a "wait and see" approach is what I'm taking.

Tex

 
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BigTex said:
Based on what? What do you see?

Tex
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Pittman has been working with former Bengal T. J. Houshmandzadeh in Cali for the last month. I combined his glowing review of Michael Pittman as a trusted and proven trainer of WRs along with what I see on with my own eyeballs.

As a local Indy guy myself, I may be influenced by all the excitement the pick has generated but I just don't see the same potential from Higgins. 

 
I believe maturity really matters in the NFL, especially for rookies coming into the league. I know the Redskins talked about how mature and professional McLaurin was coming into camp last year and what a year he had, despite a pretty bad offensive line and QB play.  

 
Ranking the situations for the NFL's 2020 rookie wide receivers

Excerpt:

1. MICHAEL PITTMAN JR., INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Look at every receiver who has had success with Philip Rivers over his career and the body types he targets most:

Keenan Allen (6-foot-2, 211 pounds)

Tyrell Williams (6-foot-4, 205 pounds)

Malcom Floyd (6-foot-5, 225 pounds)

Vincent Jackson (6-foot-5, 230 pounds)

Michael Pittman Jr.* (6-foot-4, 223 pounds)

While it could very well be a coincidence, the fact remains that Rivers has had a ton of success with bigger-bodied wideouts. The Colts didn’t have anything resembling Pittman’s skillset on the roster before drafting him, so he slides immediately into the possession role that Rivers covets.
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Local sports talk radio had T. J. Houshmandzadeh on a few days ago and he said his training philosophy was that it's more important how fast a WR can decelerate or stop than how fast he can run. 

Apparently Pittman has really bought in to his program and is impressing. Obviously grain of salt and all, but these kind of early reports are encouraging.

 
Dr. BD said:
What if, with their #1 in the NFL 110 million in cap space, they go out and sign one of Allen Robinson, Keenan Allen, JuJu, Kupp, Golladay, Godwin? Going out to sign a big name makes more sense than drafting a WR early or going with the status quo sans Hilton if they honestly expect to resign Rivers (or another QB) and go for a win now window...
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Perhaps, but I think Colts fans are going to be pleasantly surprised by how much Pittman will mean to that offense.  I honestly believe he will have somewhere around 9 to 10 TDs this year (non-shortened season).

 
Dr. BD said:
IND also just seems like a likely team to spend some cash on a wr next offseason 
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The Colts could add another high end WR in next year's draft, but I look for them to draft a CB in round 1, but if a stud WR is there they might pull the trigger.  Let's not forget Hilton will be 31 next year and set to hit the market in 2021.  By 2021 we're probably looking at Pittman and another highly drafted WR (say Rashod Bateman, Rondale Moore, Devonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle, or Justyn Ross.  Ja'Marr Chase would be fantastic but the Colts probably won't be drafting high enough.  I suppose they could add a veteran, but Ballard in general likes to build through the draft.  Ballard has really done well since coming to Indy.  He started by taking safety Malik Hooker from Ohio St. in the 1st in 2017, then with offensive lineman in 2018 by taking Quentin Nelson and Braden Smith and inherited 1st rd pick center Ryan Kelly from 2016, then drafted Leonard in the 2nd round of 2018,  defensive end Turray in the 2nd rd of 2018.  In 2019 they concentrated on defense by taking  cornerback Rock Ya-Sin and linebacker Ben Banogu in the 2nd round and linebacker Bobby Okerreke in the 3rd.  Then this year they added stud DL Deforest Buckner via trade and went offense after that by drafting Pittman and Taylor in the 2nd.   Next year I know they will want to add a CB and possibly another WR if a good one is available.  The big question is whether Jacob Eason is their future QB.  If they feel he isn't and one drops to them in the first, they might not be able to pass on him, even if they need a CB or WR.  If there is one position Ballard could add a very good veteran is at QB in 2022.  I look for Rivers to be with the Colts for at least two years unless the wheels come off in 2020.  I wouldn't want them to draft any QB in 2021 not named Lawrence or Fields and that isn't going to happen given their probable draft position, unless they can work some kind of trade (not likely). Eason will have to show plenty for them not to add a top end veteran QB by 2022 or sooner.

 
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JohnnyU said:
Perhaps, but I think Colts fans are going to be pleasantly surprised by how much Pittman will mean to that offense.  I honestly believe he will have somewhere around 9 to 10 TDs this year (non-shortened season).
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In the 1st year? Even with Hilton still on the team and Taylor getting Bell Cow type carries?

Tex

 
JohnnyU said:
The Colts could add another high end WR in next year's draft, but I look for them to draft a CB in round 1, but if a stud WR is there they might pull the trigger.  Let's not forget Hilton will be 31 next year and set to hit the market in 2021.  By 2021 we're probably looking at Pittman and another highly drafted WR (say Rashod Bateman, Rondale Moore, Devonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle, or Justyn Ross.  Ja'Marr Chase would be fantastic but the Colts probably won't be drafting high enough.  I suppose they could add a veteran, but Ballard in general likes to build through the draft.  Ballard has really done well since coming to Indy.  He started by taking safety Malik Hooker from Ohio St. in the 1st in 2017, then with offensive lineman in 2018 by taking Quentin Nelson and Braden Smith and inherited 1st rd pick center Ryan Kelly from 2016, then drafted Leonard in the 2nd round of 2018,  defensive end Turray in the 2nd rd of 2018.  In 2019 they concentrated on defense by taking  cornerback Rock Ya-Sin and linebacker Ben Banogu in the 2nd round and linebacker Bobby Okerreke in the 3rd.  Then this year they added stud DL Deforest Buckner via trade and went offense after that by drafting Pittman and Taylor in the 2nd.   Next year I know they will want to add a CB and possibly another WR if a good one is available.  The big question is whether Jacob Eason is their future QB.  If they feel he isn't and one drops to them in the first, they might not be able to pass on him, even if they need a CB or WR.  If there is one position Ballard could add a very good veteran is at QB in 2022.  I look for Rivers to be with the Colts for at least two years unless the wheels come off in 2020.  I wouldn't want them to draft any QB in 2021 not named Lawrence or Fields and that isn't going to happen given their probable draft position, unless they can work some kind of trade (not likely). Eason will have to show plenty for them not to add a top end veteran QB by 2022 or sooner.
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Gotcha!

Tex

 
Dr. BD said:
I see a scenario he could be a redzone kind of guy too. I just feel like weve been through this "future colts wr1" just 12 months ago, drooling over the landing spot, just to be disappointed or see plans change for the Colts.  

IND also just seems like a likely team to spend some cash on a wr next offseason 
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I never took Campbell as a serious threat for that role, but I'm sure some did. I agree they will be looking for more WRs, though. Sure seems like Pittman is the perfect casting for that big X role, though. I took him everywhere, including a startup I did in early March, and have got a lot of trade offers. Garbage stuff, but people are definitely sniffing.

 
Took Pittman at 1.12 in FFPC rookie draft 3 weeks ago over Higgins, Aiyuk and Mims. 
Hoping all the positive statements in this thread turn out to be true and I’ll conveniently forget about the negative statements. 

signed,

Mr Confirmation Bias

 
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barackdhouse said:
I never took Campbell as a serious threat for that role, but I'm sure some did. I agree they will be looking for more WRs, though. Sure seems like Pittman is the perfect casting for that big X role, though. I took him everywhere, including a startup I did in early March, and have got a lot of trade offers. Garbage stuff, but people are definitely sniffing.
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Not sure we should judge Campbell after an injury riddled rookie year. Not saying he is great but wouldn't write the book on him yet either. In fact seems like a great buy low as prices seem like rock bottom. 

 
King of the Jungle said:
Not sure we should judge Campbell after an injury riddled rookie year. Not saying he is great but wouldn't write the book on him yet either. In fact seems like a great buy low as prices seem like rock bottom. 
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I believe Campbell will be a fine WR3 for the Colts and will benefit from having a healthy Hilton and Pittman.

 
Colts signed second-round WR Michael Pittman to a four-year contract. 

A big body with 4.52 speed, Pittman primarily lined up outside for USC and won on vertical routes -- PFF credits an absurd 36% of his receiving yards to go routes. On tape, he was physical throughout the route and came down with many contested catches, dropping only five of 254 career targets. Pittman also was effective underneath with underrated YAC ability because he’s a tough tackle given his size and competitiveness. The Colts have already compared Pittman to outside dynamo Vincent Jackson, and said he will be their starting "X" receiver opposite speedster T.Y. Hilton. Pittman is well worth a late-round flier in re-draft leagues. 

Jun 15, 2020, 7:23 PM ET
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BigTex said:
I have Pittman at #7 right behind Brandon.

Tex
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I am also a big believer in the junior declare/early breakout line of thought; but historically speaking, 20 year old breakouts have at least some track record of success, especially when they come in relatively polished like Pittman and played at a school with a WR room crowded with NFL level talent. 21 year old breakouts on the other hand have an awful track record. There are a few successes here and there, but that alone makes Pittman a much better bet than Aiyuk to me.

Hit Rates (hit defined as 200 PPR points within first 3 seasons) From the Draft Network:

18-year-old breakouts: 38.5 percent

19-year-old breakouts: 31.3 percent

20-year-old breakouts: 20 percent

21-year-old breakouts: 8.9 percent

Then throw in that Aiyuk is going to a spread it out offense where the WR1 is a TE and the WR2 was just drafted last year--where his role has a 750 yard ceiling or so, and I don't think it's that close

 
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KChusker said:
I am also a big believer in the junior declare/early breakout line of thought; but historically speaking, 20 year old breakouts have at least some track record of success, especially when they come in relatively polished like Pittman and played at a school with a WR room crowded with NFL level talent. 21 year old breakouts on the other hand have an awful track record. There are a few successes here and there, but that alone makes Pittman a much better bet than Aiyuk to me.

Hit Rates (hit defined as 200 PPR points within first 3 seasons) From the Draft Network:

18-year-old breakouts: 38.5 percent

19-year-old breakouts: 31.3 percent

20-year-old breakouts: 20 percent

21-year-old breakouts: 8.9 percent

Then throw in that Aiyuk is going to a spread it out offense where the WR1 is a TE and the WR2 was just drafted last year--where his role has a 750 yard ceiling or so, and I don't think it's that close
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I've updated my ranking since that post, I'm a believer in that breakout age theory which had an effect on my ranking.

Tex

 
Indianapolis Colts Scouting: Chris McGaha Talks Jacob Eason, Michael Pittman Jr.

Excerpt:

Owner Jim Irsay compared Pittman to retired Colts great Reggie Wayne. McGaha was asked if that is a fair comparison.

“You know I didn’t scout Reggie coming out,” McGaha said. “I watched Reggie live on TV, just like you guys did. I don’t know if I can compare the two like that. I saw Reggie at practice. I just know Michael is a big kid, he’s a reliable target, he’s a physical player, he’s fast, he’s a guy that kind of plays above the rim. He kind of brings an element that we were missing to our wideout room, you know, that big-body presence. I’m really excited about Michael. He’s a kid that I went to USC, I’ve been going there for the last two years now, I’ve been watching Michael a lot up close and personal, watching him play live too. I told this to Chris (Ballard), he’s somebody that watching him in practice I never saw him lose a one-on-one rep. I know that might sound crazy, but it’s true. The coaches at USC, they’re great, they let you stay for the entire practice. So I would really dial in when it was one-on-one time, just to watch him compete, to see what kind of competitor he is. I’m not just kind of saying this, I never saw him lose a one-on-one rep the times I was there for practice. I think that just speaks to his competitiveness.

"He wasn’t a guy, too, that would maybe win a rep and let you know about it. He kind of went about his business. He would win the rep, then jog back to the huddle. I’m really excited about what he can do on really all four downs. … He’s a kid that played special teams all four years. He got his start at USC on special teams as a freshman. He won his spot as a sophomore, beat out an upperclassman as a sophomore, and then kind of just improved from there. I think there’s a lot, a lot, a lot of upside to Michael Pittman.”
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The Athletic's Zak Keefer reports second-round rookie Michael Pittman is "building a quick rapport" with Philip Rivers. 

Per Keefer, it's "not hard to see Pittman becoming one of Rivers’ favorite red-zone targets from the start." Keefer reports 6-foot-4 Pittman has seen a steady diet of first-team reps through the early days of Colts camp. Pittman will be competing for looks with injury-recovered sophomore Parris Campbell behind T.Y. Hilton, but he is the kind of wideout Rivers has had success with in the past. Pittman is well worth a late-round flier in fantasy drafts. 

SOURCE: The Athletic 

Aug 18, 2020, 5:58 PM ET
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Philip Rivers On Building Rapport With Receivers, Balancing 'Aggressive Or Stupid' In Passing Game

Excerpt:

» Rivers can appreciate the rookie ups and downs being experienced by wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr.: The Colts selected Pittman Jr. in the second round of this year's NFL Draft, confident he not only had the potential to be an explosive playmaker within their offense, but also knowing he had a passion for the game and that level of intelligence needed to survive at the next level.

But this has been an unprecedented year for NFL rookies; the COVID-19 pandemic took away their on-field time with their new teams this offseason, meaning their first real exposure to the coaching staff on the field would have to come during training camp.

So, in that sense, Pittman Jr. and his rookie teammates are virtually brand new to the Colts' system. While he's been thrown into the fire throughout the first few days of training camp, Rivers likes what he's seen out of the USC product so far, and can even see clear improvement the last couple days especially.

"Each and every day he's going to improve, and there may be some bumps in the road throughout these next three, four weeks throughout the season; there may be some hiccups here and there, but he seems determined to get better every day," Rivers said. "And I think he's put together, to me, now the last two practices back-to-back where you're starting to see that."

From Sirianni, who has a background both playing receiver and coaching the position, to Rivers and the rest of the quarterbacks themselves, the Colts expect a lot out of their wideouts.

"We demand a lot of them, as well, as far as all the little, little, little details that make a difference in a completion or conversion of a third down or something to go or something not go" Rivers said. "So there's a lot asked of them, and I think Michael has done a heck of a job, you know, soaking it all in, realizing there's gonna be some bumps a little bit in the road."
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The Athletic’s Zak Keefer reports the Colts believe Michael Pittman is “ready to contribute.”

Pittman has been getting first-team reps with T.Y. Hilton (hamstring) limited. He’s still working on his timing with Philip Rivers, but the camp reports on him have been positive. Pittman has a clear path to targets behind Hilton and Parris Campbell. There’s some 2018 Mike Williams to Pittman as a red-zone threat for Rivers.

SOURCE: The Athletic

Aug 21, 2020, 7:18 PM ET
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