fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Finished the season with 92 receptions 1137 yards 9 TDs and thats with missing a game. Not bad.
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WR Michael Thomas, Free Agent (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Mr. Irrelevant
- Start date
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Looks a lot like Colston's stats in his prime
GoBirds
Footballguy
Pretty excited to hang on to as a keeper, hope he keeps role as #1 but Cook/Snead make me a little nervous.
grateful zed
Footballguy
love this guy.
Pwingles
Footballguy
just an update
I did follow thru on this attempt. still only own him where i drafted him :(
bostonfred
Footballguy
The cooks trade is about the strongest signal the team could send that they feel Thomas is ready to be a number one.
Brees averages over 650 pass attempts a year for the last 7 years and only went under once. He had 627 attempts in 2015, and 673 in 2016.
Thomas had 121 targets last year and caught an absurdly high number of them - 92. That's hard to replicate. But he only averaged a little over 12 yards a catch, and his targets should go up because it's his second year and he just took over the number one role.
Cooks had 117 targets. It looks like he will be replaced by Ginn, who hasn't reached 100 targets in his career.
He's also their best red zone target. His 9 touchdowns as a rookie isn't an anomaly - it was expected because their other guys are surfs. And Cooks was a better red zone option than Ginn.
So I would expect his catch percentage to go down a little, his yards per catch to go up a little, and his targets to go up a little. I'd say somewhere in the range of 140 targets, 95 catches, 1300 yards and 10 touchdowns is possible.
I don't think he had any real chance of leading the league in targets - Brees spreads the ball around too much - and it's hard to project anyone to catch over 75% of targets.
I do think he could exceed those numbers this year but I don't expect him to do too much more. I also don't expect him to do too much less. He might struggle against number one corners, but he was already facing number one corners - his style is different enough from Cooks that you don't put your number one guy on one and number two on the other, you put your speedy guy on cooks and your big guy on Thomas. And Ginn will ask draw that speedy guy. You worry about double coverage, but Brees spreads the ball around too well to consistently double one guy.
So for the next couple years, I think 95/1300/10 type numbers are fairly likely, with a range of 85 to 100, 1150 to 1400, and 7 to 12. That puts him just behind the very elite receivers and clearly in the top 10, knocking on top 5.
After that - it's really dependent on qb. I like that the saints are looking to groom someone behind Brees, that their defense is horrible and their record is mediocre. Chances are good that the saints will have earlier picks to get their developmental guy and that they won't have much of a defense by the time Brees retires. The next qb might not throw 650 times a year, but Thomas's target volume may actually go up with a new qb since he's clearly entrenched as the number one guy for the foreseeable future.
All in all I think he's a bargain in the early second of dynasty start ups and probably should go somewhere in the 8 to 10 range.
Brees averages over 650 pass attempts a year for the last 7 years and only went under once. He had 627 attempts in 2015, and 673 in 2016.
Thomas had 121 targets last year and caught an absurdly high number of them - 92. That's hard to replicate. But he only averaged a little over 12 yards a catch, and his targets should go up because it's his second year and he just took over the number one role.
Cooks had 117 targets. It looks like he will be replaced by Ginn, who hasn't reached 100 targets in his career.
He's also their best red zone target. His 9 touchdowns as a rookie isn't an anomaly - it was expected because their other guys are surfs. And Cooks was a better red zone option than Ginn.
So I would expect his catch percentage to go down a little, his yards per catch to go up a little, and his targets to go up a little. I'd say somewhere in the range of 140 targets, 95 catches, 1300 yards and 10 touchdowns is possible.
I don't think he had any real chance of leading the league in targets - Brees spreads the ball around too much - and it's hard to project anyone to catch over 75% of targets.
I do think he could exceed those numbers this year but I don't expect him to do too much more. I also don't expect him to do too much less. He might struggle against number one corners, but he was already facing number one corners - his style is different enough from Cooks that you don't put your number one guy on one and number two on the other, you put your speedy guy on cooks and your big guy on Thomas. And Ginn will ask draw that speedy guy. You worry about double coverage, but Brees spreads the ball around too well to consistently double one guy.
So for the next couple years, I think 95/1300/10 type numbers are fairly likely, with a range of 85 to 100, 1150 to 1400, and 7 to 12. That puts him just behind the very elite receivers and clearly in the top 10, knocking on top 5.
After that - it's really dependent on qb. I like that the saints are looking to groom someone behind Brees, that their defense is horrible and their record is mediocre. Chances are good that the saints will have earlier picks to get their developmental guy and that they won't have much of a defense by the time Brees retires. The next qb might not throw 650 times a year, but Thomas's target volume may actually go up with a new qb since he's clearly entrenched as the number one guy for the foreseeable future.
All in all I think he's a bargain in the early second of dynasty start ups and probably should go somewhere in the 8 to 10 range.
In terms of his value I've made a trade for Thomas this off-season, traded him away in another league and in a third league faced the most difficult trade decision I've ever had in my life that involved dealing him away and ended up holding.
When I traded for him it was before the Cooks trade. I gave Jordan Howard and 2.1.
I dealt him before the Cooks trade was official but at that point knew it was going down and dealt him and 2.9 for 1.4, 1.11 and 2.4.
I'd give reasons for those trades but not a trade thread, just giving you idea of some trades involving him that I've done.
About 2-3 weeks ago I wrested heavily with dealing Thomas and 1.2 for Elliot and eventually walked away. I will add for sake of comparing value that I would have done that deal if I could have subbed in AJ Green for Thomas and FWIW AJ placed 9th in that player ranking poll. Also in that poll Thomas came in at 2.5 before the trade.
I agreed with most of what Bostonfred had to say in post one or two up from this one. Summary is what he wrote in one line which is this: I do think he could exceed those numbers this year but I don't expect him to do too much more.
Adding to that last line in PPR leagues he put up 17.25 a game last year. I don't see a big jump, I don't see him as a 20PPG type of guy in an offense that spreads it around so I'm not anticipating him have a meteoric type jump. Cooks only drew 117 targets so it's not like he was some bit Alpha target hog that left and I believe he absolutely helped open up the field and make life a little easier on Thomas so not sure how much his departure really helps. Also this team has been super TE friendly until they got Fleenered and that was the lowest targets to TE's for this team since 2007. Now Thomas might have a little something to do with that but this team is a team that averaged 162 targets a game to their TE's the previous 7 seasons and that dropped to 109 last year. And the TE targets were not based so much on Graham, they threw it to TE's over 150 times the year before and year after Graham.
This is a team that also likes throwing the RB's a lot and they did that last season but 8th most out of Payton's 11 years. LIkely due to no one like Sproles, Reggie or even Pierre but I got a feeling they address that in this draft.
So to me I see increased usage but not maybe as much as others and seems close to impossible he can maintain such a high efficiency.
In terms of his long term value the concern is how long does he have with an elite playing Brees and how he'll respond post-Brees. Honestly I never factored this much into my decision to trade for him or trade him away because I just have no idea. Brees is great, Payton is a offensive genius, but it's possible another QB or system he could get a larger target share. I have no way of knowing how that goes so nothing I factored.
When I traded for him it was before the Cooks trade. I gave Jordan Howard and 2.1.
I dealt him before the Cooks trade was official but at that point knew it was going down and dealt him and 2.9 for 1.4, 1.11 and 2.4.
I'd give reasons for those trades but not a trade thread, just giving you idea of some trades involving him that I've done.
About 2-3 weeks ago I wrested heavily with dealing Thomas and 1.2 for Elliot and eventually walked away. I will add for sake of comparing value that I would have done that deal if I could have subbed in AJ Green for Thomas and FWIW AJ placed 9th in that player ranking poll. Also in that poll Thomas came in at 2.5 before the trade.
I agreed with most of what Bostonfred had to say in post one or two up from this one. Summary is what he wrote in one line which is this: I do think he could exceed those numbers this year but I don't expect him to do too much more.
Adding to that last line in PPR leagues he put up 17.25 a game last year. I don't see a big jump, I don't see him as a 20PPG type of guy in an offense that spreads it around so I'm not anticipating him have a meteoric type jump. Cooks only drew 117 targets so it's not like he was some bit Alpha target hog that left and I believe he absolutely helped open up the field and make life a little easier on Thomas so not sure how much his departure really helps. Also this team has been super TE friendly until they got Fleenered and that was the lowest targets to TE's for this team since 2007. Now Thomas might have a little something to do with that but this team is a team that averaged 162 targets a game to their TE's the previous 7 seasons and that dropped to 109 last year. And the TE targets were not based so much on Graham, they threw it to TE's over 150 times the year before and year after Graham.
This is a team that also likes throwing the RB's a lot and they did that last season but 8th most out of Payton's 11 years. LIkely due to no one like Sproles, Reggie or even Pierre but I got a feeling they address that in this draft.
So to me I see increased usage but not maybe as much as others and seems close to impossible he can maintain such a high efficiency.
In terms of his long term value the concern is how long does he have with an elite playing Brees and how he'll respond post-Brees. Honestly I never factored this much into my decision to trade for him or trade him away because I just have no idea. Brees is great, Payton is a offensive genius, but it's possible another QB or system he could get a larger target share. I have no way of knowing how that goes so nothing I factored.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Agreed with both of these as well as most everything else in your post.
I've done a pretty big 180 on Thomas the last month or so. It's just hard to imagine him not gaining value from now to this point next year. I have a dynasty startup this year and am really trying to trade into that early 2nd area to nab him. Only problem is there are lots of pretty good looking players there (Gurley, Howard, top rookie) but I think Thomas would be the guy I go after at this point.
https://www.thefantasyfootballers.com/articles/whats-tape-michael-thomas/
Success (as defined by Matt Harmon) on literally every type of route in the tree last season. I'd wager that's the first time that's ever been done (at least on his volume of touches) by a rookie WR.
I was moderately high on the guy as a rookie ... but if you'd told me that going into his sophomore season he'd be worth first-round consideration in PPR, I'd have had you locked up. But with Cooks out of the picture, is that really such crazy talk?
Success (as defined by Matt Harmon) on literally every type of route in the tree last season. I'd wager that's the first time that's ever been done (at least on his volume of touches) by a rookie WR.
I was moderately high on the guy as a rookie ... but if you'd told me that going into his sophomore season he'd be worth first-round consideration in PPR, I'd have had you locked up. But with Cooks out of the picture, is that really such crazy talk?
Dez
Footballguy
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
bostonfred
Footballguy
Oh, but I'm sure if we went back through your history all your likes or dislikes would have been right. A n opinion months before the draft before his landing spot was known, but I'm sure he would have lit it up if he'd ended up with the Browns or Rams right? Walk on.
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First of all, yes I was wrong on Thomas.
Second, criticism from a guy who didn't voice his opinion one way or the other on the player makes me laugh. For all we know you may have hated Thomas, but since you didn't voice an opinion other than to come on and rip others opinions, we'll never know.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
You just refuse to get it. It's not the message, it's the delivery. You continually paint yourself as a target yet you're offended when people take shots. Either lighten up or grow a thicker skin
steelers1080
Footballguy
I really liked Thomas as a rookie for a stupid reason. I watched that show Game Changers and watched him catch passes and run routes and thought he looked darn good.
That said, I think he's reached Overrated status. Some people talk about him as a 1st round pick in a dynasty startup. He could be that good, but he's had 1 year of production, and Cooks was taking most of the heat. I wouldn't buy in at his current price. I'd bet he's not a top 10 fantasy WR at the end of the season, whether it's due to coverage shifts or Brees breaking down.
That said, I think he's reached Overrated status. Some people talk about him as a 1st round pick in a dynasty startup. He could be that good, but he's had 1 year of production, and Cooks was taking most of the heat. I wouldn't buy in at his current price. I'd bet he's not a top 10 fantasy WR at the end of the season, whether it's due to coverage shifts or Brees breaking down.
I agree with the last post.
Thomas had an excellent rookie year, will continue to see robust target volume, and make plenty of plays, but- with Cooks out of the picture, Thomas is likely to be the focus of opposing defenses in the passing game, with perhaps more double teams/bracket coverage, thus I'm not convinced he will produce at a WR1 rate going forward.
Bottom line for me- I'd love to have him but don't see myself pulling the trigger on him in round #1. I would posit that, even in a dynasty start up, Thomas going in the top 15 picks is too high.
Thomas had an excellent rookie year, will continue to see robust target volume, and make plenty of plays, but- with Cooks out of the picture, Thomas is likely to be the focus of opposing defenses in the passing game, with perhaps more double teams/bracket coverage, thus I'm not convinced he will produce at a WR1 rate going forward.
Bottom line for me- I'd love to have him but don't see myself pulling the trigger on him in round #1. I would posit that, even in a dynasty start up, Thomas going in the top 15 picks is too high.
So, I'm looking at projections (myFBG) and everyone seems to have this guy in the 50/700/5 range.
I'm looking and each staffer has Travis Benjamin with more projected points than Michael Thomas.
I then read this article about overvalued WRs expecting to see him, and he's not there, not even once: http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=2017juneovervaluedwr
So I check the redraft rankings and he's WR8.
Does MyFBG think there's a different Michael Thomas on my roster?
@Joe Bryant
(someone tag him for me please)
I'm looking and each staffer has Travis Benjamin with more projected points than Michael Thomas.
I then read this article about overvalued WRs expecting to see him, and he's not there, not even once: http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=2017juneovervaluedwr
So I check the redraft rankings and he's WR8.
Does MyFBG think there's a different Michael Thomas on my roster?
@Joe Bryant
(someone tag him for me please)
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JoeSteeler
Footballguy
here are the projections from his player page
2017PROJ-Dodds 92 1187 8
2017PROJ-Henry 95 1200 9
2017PROJ-Wood 93 1250 8
2017PROJ-Tremblay 86 1084 7
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Bronco Billy
Footballguy
Sounds like projections for the Rams' Michael Thomas, not the Saints one. Did you load the correct guy?
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
>>ESPN fantasy analyst Mike Clay has correctly pointed out that the target share for the Saints’ top wide receiver in the 11 years since Payton and Brees arrived -- 20 percent, 23, 19, 20, 20, 17, 20, 18, 16, 20 and 19 -- is a “nearly unheard of level of consistency.”<<
- Nice stat. Something has to give with Cooks gone though. Start dividing those extra targets up and Thomas will get some.
Mavis
Footballguy
He went 92/1137/9 as a Rookie who wasnt the #1 target when OBJ was the #1 target as a rookie. Weak projections with very little effort and reach at all from the above. The virtually see him not doing any better without Cooks and a year older as the #1 on a team which we just saw the targets for their #1 is outrageously consistent. He was WR 10 in my league last year. The upside from that makes him a Top 5 dyno WR.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Nobody does real projections. They just cheat and adjust their projections to match where they want the players to be ranked.
jtd13
Footballguy
His efficiency was crazy high last year. Part of that is playing with Brees, but I would bet on it coming down some with the extra attention. That said, even if NO sticks with their previous pattern of around 20-22% target share for the top guy, that still allows for another 1-2 targets/game for Thomas. That should cover any drop in efficiency next year, so last years numbers or a bit better seem like reasonable expectations.
Mavis
Footballguy
Part of fantasy football value is who is throwing the WR the ball. Would Hopkins be ranked so low if he had Brady throwing to him?
I love when people say things like this like they are inventing the wheel. Hey, if he didnt have hands, he couldnt catch and if he didnt have legs, he couldnt run. State the obvious where we can, you know?
Mavis
Footballguy
This is true, people may also just put what they think others expect to see too. A lot of society, including projections in fantasy, is doing what the others expect to see to keep credibility, when the real credibility is being right on your projections after the fact, not what people hope to see before the fact. And heaven forbid you make a person who makes bad predictions own it, you are considered the bad person not the person who makes bad predictions. Whats more, is all the projections are always inaccurate and yet people still go back to the well.
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bostonfred
Footballguy
Don't forget that his efficiency numbers were already really high. It's hard to project someone to catch 75% of their targets. His yards per catch might go up, but not appreciably - he's not going to be running 9 routes all day. And he's not likely to lead the league in targets - no receiver in New Orleans has put up huge target volume. You can project more touchdowns, but that's just guessing.
So I'd say the stat projections are about right. He shouldn't go up or down too much from last year, not because I'm being conservative or trying to look right, but because that's about where he should end up. Seems like a safe pick to be very good.
Mavis
Footballguy
He should be a roughly 250 pointer and no, not sensitivity just smart alic stuff man. Are people always so sensitive to a little jest when speaking? Does everything have to be so dang uptight around here? Not everyone in life is going to talk like they have no personality when talking about a game.jtd13 said:
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jtd13
Footballguy
Not uptight. I am posting on a message board, talking about a game derived from another game, 3 months before any of those games happen. There is so little to get uptight about here
Just seemed like you went on the defense after reading the first line of my post and missed the whole point of the post.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
He's close. It's a matter of personal opinion:need2know said:
DJ, Bell, Zeke, McCoy, Brown, Julio, OBJ, AJ, and Evans are all locks for the 1st. So for you have several guys competing for the final 3 spots: Hilton, Jordy, Dez, Thomas, Gordon, Howard, Murray, Freeman. So it's just a matter of preference there. The first is too early for me, but I can understand the logic in it.
need2know
Footballguy
Be sweet to pair him with another wr from the above group. Seems like he's a great Rd 2 pick
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Unless I get a shot at a top 3 RB, I'm going WR/WR with the hopes of getting 2 of the guys mentioned.
need2know
Footballguy
owned Thomas a ton last year but my gut is telling me to avoid at his price for some reason....nothing really to base it on other than sometimes I don't think it is great for a guy who had a nice year to lose other pieces around him and all of a sudden become "the man"....some guys just don't respond the same...some guys seem to play better when they aren't "the guy"....I'm not sold on the automatic knee jerk reaction of bumping a guy up in the rankings when they lose pieces around them (Thomas/Cooks.....Hill/Maclin)....I generally like to see a guy put up the stats of a #1 when they are the #1 before drafting them as such....guys like Hilton/Nelson etc have shown that they can produce in that role and I feel more comfortable with pulling the trigger on them....
Brown-Beckham-Julio-Evans-Green-Nelson.....and then I start thinking about Thomas with guys like Hilton....and Hilton's history of production as the #1 may give him the edge for me
Brown-Beckham-Julio-Evans-Green-Nelson.....and then I start thinking about Thomas with guys like Hilton....and Hilton's history of production as the #1 may give him the edge for me
need2know
Footballguy
Andrew luck actually throwing a football sometime this year would make me feel better about hilton
beerbuff
Footballguy
Last year in PPR he was the 7th highest scoring WR in PPG at 17.31 points, Behind Antonio 20.49, Jordy 19.17, Evans 18.76, OBJ 18.66, AJ 18.64 and Julio at 18.56. Cooks was only a couple of points away at 15.39, it is a pretty safe assumption to make that Ginn won't do as well as Cooks which even could add a couple of more ppg for Thomas. IMHO he is a pretty safe late round 1 pick who should be right in the mix to be a top 5 WR this year.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Thomas is very safe. It is hard to imagine a lead WR in a Saints offense not being a weekly starter. However, I question if his ceiling is anything higher than we saw last year. While the Saints have had the most prolific fantasy offense for a decade, they don't produce great WR1 seasons. The 2 best Saints WR seasons in recent history were actually before Brees came (Joe Horn twice). Colston finished among WR rankings: 15, 8, 11, 36, 14, 20, 11, 11, 28. Cooks finished 58, 12, 8. Thomas was 9 last year. (I am using stats reference so I believe these are non ppr).
So, while I don't doubt that Thomas has more talent than Colston, is he more talented than Cooks? How will he do without Cooks to take attention away? Can he break the decade long trend of WR scoring we have seen in New Orleans?
themitch
Footballguy
New Orleans has had a large number of weapons for a long time. Graham was getting 80-90 receptions a year from 2011-2014, as well as splitting the rest with Colston, Cooks, etc. Thomas is the clear cut #1 on this team, and Coby Fleener is not going to command the targets that Graham did. Ginn and Snead should be serviceable 2a and 2b targets, and Brees should be able to keep defenses honest by spreading the ball around. Thomas should match or exceed last year, barring injury.
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