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WR Michael Thomas, Free Agent (1 Viewer)

Something is wrong here that transcends a physical injury. It just doesn't pass the sniff test and hasn't for awhile.

 
I've been holding him in hopes that he comes back and gives my team a shot in the arm come playoff time.  I was questioning how much real value he'd have in a Winston offense but now that he's out I have to wonder if he has any real value.  Not looking good IMO.

 
Is the party over before it’s even started? How dire is the downgrade from Jameis to Hill for his prospects? I think it’s pretty bad. Starting to wonder what I should do with him moving forward. 
Maybe the smart move is to move him before the great unveiling. I have a feeling this is going to be a big disappointment. Terrible development for those of us who drafted and held all this time. 

 
Johnny Utah #9 said:
How dire is the downgrade from Jameis to Hill for his prospects?
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Seems like it would be dire, right? But the few game sample size last year was not so bad especially if you contextualize one of the games and the situation.

The situation was Michael Thomas was still bothered by his ankle. And one of the games was the Kendal Hinton QB game for Denver so the Saints gameplan was ultra conservative.

12/11/9/104/0

11/9/105/0

8/8/84/0

Those are targets, receptions, yards and TD's for the 3 non-Denver games. It's solid even without a TD and it's also consistent.

The Denver game he had 6/4/50/0. Taysom was 9/16/78/0 in a game the Saints won 31-3.

Strangely enough his previous two games with Brees were both were he combined for 7/78/0. Might have been due to trying to return from the injury but he actually sort of came alive when Taysom got in as unlikely as that seems. Then he was done for the year in what was Taysom's last start.

I am however getting more pessimistic on his timeline return. I'm not even hearing confidence of when a timeline for his practice period to open up is coming soon.

 
menobrown said:
Seems like it would be dire, right? But the few game sample size last year was not so bad especially if you contextualize one of the games and the situation.

The situation was Michael Thomas was still bothered by his ankle. And one of the games was the Kendal Hinton QB game for Denver so the Saints gameplan was ultra conservative.

12/11/9/104/0

11/9/105/0

8/8/84/0

Those are targets, receptions, yards and TD's for the 3 non-Denver games. It's solid even without a TD and it's also consistent.

The Denver game he had 6/4/50/0. Taysom was 9/16/78/0 in a game the Saints won 31-3.

Strangely enough his previous two games with Brees were both were he combined for 7/78/0. Might have been due to trying to return from the injury but he actually sort of came alive when Taysom got in as unlikely as that seems. Then he was done for the year in what was Taysom's last start.

I am however getting more pessimistic on his timeline return. I'm not even hearing confidence of when a timeline for his practice period to open up is coming soon.
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Great post. Thanks for this. Yes, the return date is also a big issue. The fact that nobody is putting even the practice timeline out there is concerning. The one positive is that at least his lack of playing doesn’t appear like it would be related to bad blood. He was out there cheering the team on, etc. He just needs to get healthy, and hopefully before his usefulness for the fantasy season is over.

 
menobrown said:
Seems like it would be dire, right? But the few game sample size last year was not so bad especially if you contextualize one of the games and the situation.

The situation was Michael Thomas was still bothered by his ankle. And one of the games was the Kendal Hinton QB game for Denver so the Saints gameplan was ultra conservative.

12/11/9/104/0

11/9/105/0

8/8/84/0

Those are targets, receptions, yards and TD's for the 3 non-Denver games. It's solid even without a TD and it's also consistent.

The Denver game he had 6/4/50/0. Taysom was 9/16/78/0 in a game the Saints won 31-3.

Strangely enough his previous two games with Brees were both were he combined for 7/78/0. Might have been due to trying to return from the injury but he actually sort of came alive when Taysom got in as unlikely as that seems. Then he was done for the year in what was Taysom's last start.

I am however getting more pessimistic on his timeline return. I'm not even hearing confidence of when a timeline for his practice period to open up is coming soon.
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Yes, excellent Post! Thank you.

 
Ian Rapoport @RapSheet

FROM @GMFB: #Saints WR Michael Thomas has a new issue with his ankle that necessitated an appointment with a specialist recently, sources say. His return date off the PUP list is unpredictable. This is why New Orleans tried to trade for a WR yesterday.
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https://twitter.com/rapsheet/status/1455875919051202571 (VIDEO)
 

EDIT:

Michael Thomas (ankle) is seeing a specialist and his return in "unpredictable". 

Thomas has a new issue with his ankle, which prompted a visit to a specialist. The issue also led to the Saints trying to trade for a wide receiver before the deadline. Thomas' timeline for returning from the PUP list is unknown, but it's clearly not imminent. Even when Thomas does return he'll be catching passes from Taysom Hill, following Jameis Winston's ACL injury. It's looking like 2021 will be a lost fantasy season for Thomas. The 28 year is under contract for three more seasons with the Saints, and his 2022 salary fully guarantees in March.
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Ugh, when I saw today's news I got strong 2017 Andrew Luck vibes. I remember I drafted him that year figuring he'd be out the first few weeks (IIRC, they didn't even put him on IR). About halfway through the season we heard something about a setback. That was enough for me to bail on him, and he ended up never coming back that season.

The big difference with Thomas is that, while 2017 ended up being a lost year for the Colts, the Saints will probably remain in playoff hunt and could really use him down the stretch. So they have a strong disincentive to shut him down. Of course, we don't know what's going on with his relationship with the team, their future plans for him, etc. All that is pure Category 2, as they say on Harris Football.

If I knew he was unlikely to come back I'd drop him in a second and use my IR spot on Jeff Wilson. But I can't bring myself to pull the trigger until I learn more about this latest news.

 
OOF
 

Ian Rapoport @RapSheet · 3m

And now, #Saints WR Michael Thomas makes the announcement. He’s out for the season.
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https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/1455895926174883840

EDIT:
 

Michael Thomas (ankle) released a statement that he is out for the 2021 season.

News broke early Wednesday morning that Thomas had seen a specialist for a new injury to his ankle. Thomas indicated in his statement that this setback will cause him to miss the rest of the 2021 season. Thomas was utterly dominant in 2019, but will make his return a full two years removed from that spectacular season. Thomas turns 29 in March, and with Jameis Winton unlikely to be the Saints' starter in 2022, it's unclear who Thomas will be catching passes from in his attempt to recapture his elite form. Thomas' salary fully guarantees on the third day of the 2022 league year, in March. This will likely keep him in New Orleans, but it's not entirely out of the question that he's played his last snap as a Saint.
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4th&inches said:
In a similar situation myself; in a Keeper league and can keep him next year for an 8th round pick...debating if it's worth holding or drop to free up my IR spot 
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I would keep him in your IR. But then again I don’t know how you would use your IR. He’s probably worth an 8th round pick. Wonder if he will be on the Saint next season. Could have a good qb landing spot. 

 
was looking up his contract situation and I see this verbiage on sportrac:

Potential Out: 2022, 3 yr, $45,448,043; $22,700,000 dead cap
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anyone familiar with his contract know what this means exactly? They can trade him with 22.7M dead cap money and the new team takes on the 3yr 45M contract from there? the timing of this announcement is fishy, with both the Winston injury and trade deadline having just passed. i know there was news they made up, but we assuming it's a done deal that he's a Saint next year?

 
Pigskin Fanatic said:
was looking up his contract situation and I see this verbiage on sportrac:

Potential Out: 2022, 3 yr, $45,448,043; $22,700,000 dead cap
Click to expand...


anyone familiar with his contract know what this means exactly?
Click to expand...
Look at the 2022 line item under the "Potential Out" line. Compare the values in the "Cap Hit" and "Dead Cap" columns. EDIT: See Spotrac page here.

The 2022 offseason will be the first in which the Saints can save some cap by cutting Thomas outright. His 2022 cap hit if retained is $24,700,000, and $22,700,000 if he's cut. That's a lot of dead cap, but the Saints do still save $2 million in cap space by moving on from Thomas.

The flip side, of course, is that $2 million is not going to fetch a WR of Thomas's (former?) caliber. But then ... if Thomas is now washed ... ? Tough decision for the team.

 
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The Athletic's Katherine Terrell said "a lot of signs have shown [the Saints] don’t have any intention" of trading Michael Thomas this offseason. 

New head coach Dennis Allen's supportive words for Thomas and the mercurial wideout's "positive" interactions with a teammate he fought in practice point to him returning to New Orleans for the 2022 season. He's missed most of the past two seasons with a lingering ankle issue after a monster 2019 campaign in which he led the NFL in receptions and receiving yards. NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reported last week that Thomas is expected back with the team. The Saints, once again in salary cap hell, would save a mere $2 million by dealing Thomas before June 1. His fantasy prospects will hinge on who the Saints start at QB next season. 

SOURCE: The Athletic 

Feb 18, 2022, 10:29 AM ET
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Saints WR Michael Thomas agreed to a restructured contract.

The Saints, who have the worst cap situation in the league, had Thomas convert $14.6 million of his salary into a signing bonus. They also cleared $18.2 million with restructuring RT Ryan Ramczyk's deal. The moves create a total of $26.2 million in cap savings for the Saints.

RELATED: 

Ryan Ramczyk

SOURCE: ESPN

Feb 26, 2022, 10:56 AM ET
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Curious to everyone's value of him in dynasty. I was offered him and 1.10 for Waddle and it was an instant reject with no counter from me. He just feels like Zeke value wise, you guys agree or am I undervaluing him? 

 
ffmail4me said:
Curious to everyone's value of him in dynasty. I was offered him and 1.10 for Waddle and it was an instant reject with no counter from me. He just feels like Zeke value wise, you guys agree or am I undervaluing him? 
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Right now zeke may be worth more. 
but if the saints manage to land a decent  QB that changes quick.
He’s firmly a hold for me as even asking for a first seems a reach.  The one team I have him is solid everywhere but WR so that makes it harder to deal. I guess depending on need you might try for a player like Hockensen or Damien Harris. Frankly, anyone who would give that probably already has him. 

 
-OZ- said:
Right now zeke may be worth more. 
but if the saints manage to land a decent  QB that changes quick.
He’s firmly a hold for me as even asking for a first seems a reach.  The one team I have him is solid everywhere but WR so that makes it harder to deal. I guess depending on need you might try for a player like Hockensen or Damien Harris. Frankly, anyone who would give that probably already has him. 
Click to expand...


Wow, I would not trade MT for Hockenson or Harris if you even have a shot this year (and I love Harris). I don't see any advantage to trading him now. His floor is baked in. Watch him have a good game to show he's back and he'll be a top 15/top 10 weekly option again. Always a chance he's lost a step but I think he has much more value to gain than lose right now.

 
-OZ- said:
Right now zeke may be worth more. 
but if the saints manage to land a decent  QB that changes quick.
 
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I don't think it's close to be honest and I see it the other way. Thomas should have a solid 2-3 prime years coming up, Zeke is close to baked.

As for the QB I'll go back to a point I kept hammering home all of last off-season but we never got to see it put to the test. MT has 8-9 games of Teddy B and Taysom to show he does not need much at QB. Frankly if you can ball as a WR with Taysom you can ball with anyone.

 
Apple Juice said:
Wow, I would not trade MT for Hockenson or Harris if you even have a shot this year (and I love Harris). I don't see any advantage to trading him now. His floor is baked in. Watch him have a good game to show he's back and he'll be a top 15/top 10 weekly option again. Always a chance he's lost a step but I think he has much more value to gain than lose right now.
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Like I said, he’s a a hold for me. Essentially for the reasons you wrote. But there’s more going on with him than the physical injury.  I guess his Tweet shows he’s trying. 

menobrown said:
I don't think it's close to be honest and I see it the other way. Thomas should have a solid 2-3 prime years coming up, Zeke is close to baked.

As for the QB I'll go back to a point I kept hammering home all of last off-season but we never got to see it put to the test. MT has 8-9 games of Teddy B and Taysom to show he does not need much at QB. Frankly if you can ball as a WR with Taysom you can ball with anyone.
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🤷 you should probably look to acquire MT in your leagues then.  I just have zero faith in him coming fully back.

 
Saints head coach Dennis Allen said "a few hurdles" remain in Michael Thomas' return from his ankle injury. 

"There's still a few hurdles that we've got to climb, with any of our guys that had any injuries they're trying to get back from," Allen said of Thomas, who has played seven games over the past two seasons as he battles a lingering ankle injury. "We drafted Chris Olave in the first round ... getting Mike back, it's almost like we had two first round draft choices." Thomas, who agreed to a restructure of his contract, will certainly stay with the Saints in 2022. Whether he's ready for training camp is another issue entirely. If he misses any time this season, Olave would likely be the Saints' No. 1 wideout. 

SOURCE: Katherine Terrell on Twitter 

May 6, 2022, 11:46 AM ET
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How is it possible that he’s not even ready to begin on-field rehab at this point?  Are they using leeches and bloodletting? Trying to exercise humors with a priest? 

:stares in 21st century medicine:

”saints coach Dennis Allen says Michael Thomas is "doing well in his rehab" but is not ready to return to the field.

Thomas missed all of the 2021 season and a significant portion of 2020 due to an ankle injury. When asked about the likelihood that Thomas would be ready for training camp, Allen responded "that's certainly our plan." Thomas' outlook for the 2022 season is a difficult one to predict given his recent injury struggles and the length of time it has taken him to return to the field. Even if healthy, he will see some of his workload eaten into by rookie wide receiver Chris Olave, and veteran free agent signing Jarvis Landry.”

If I’m a Thomas owner, I’m officially concerned at this point. 

 
menobrown said:
Started shopping him a few days ago when I came across some info that was like a punch in the gut to my hopes for him.

I regret not being more aggressive about it before this blurb broke.
Click to expand...
I’ve been wondering if his delay in seeking treatment caused it to heal wrong. I’ve heard of such things happening before.

Hope you can find a taker at a decent return. 

 
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