WR Nico Collins, HOU (1 Viewer)

[massraider]

Let's see here.......

talented crazypants who wore out his welcome in BUF, and turns 31 in November

165 pound mosquito who broke his leg, and then got shot in the leg.

The 6'4" 215 pound stud who's only one year older than Dell.



Yeah, this is a tough case to crack.

 

[efactor]

Texans gave up a 2nd rounder from Minnesota for Diggs for a reason. He’s still really good. Plus, Stroud loves him some Tank Dell. I think people expecting Collins to be an alpha this year are going to be disappointed. Ball will be spread around. Plus, while it’s a one year contract currently, he could easily be resigned if everybody plays nice this year.

 

[opensourcebeer]

Let's see here.......

talented crazypants who wore out his welcome in BUF, and turns 31 in November

165 pound mosquito who broke his leg, and then got shot in the leg.

The 6'4" 215 pound stud who's only one year older than Dell.



Yeah, this is a tough case to crack.

I'm choosing this narrative. Poor man's Julio.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Texans gave up a 2nd rounder from Minnesota for Diggs for a reason. He’s still really good. Plus, Stroud loves him some Tank Dell. I think people expecting Collins to be an alpha this year are going to be disappointed. Ball will be spread around. Plus, while it’s a one year contract currently, he could easily be resigned if everybody plays nice this year.

I don’t disagree with any of this. My beef is with anyone suggesting that Diggs will get 140+ targets this year. He’s not in Buffalo anymore.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Let's see here.......

talented crazypants who wore out his welcome in BUF, and turns 31 in November

165 pound mosquito who broke his leg, and then got shot in the leg.

The 6'4" 215 pound stud who's only one year older than Dell.



Yeah, this is a tough case to crack.

I'm choosing this narrative. Poor man's Julio.

Same.

 

[Faust]

Matt Harmon

Just how good was Nico Collins in isolation last season? His #ReceptionPerception success rates put him in some truly exceptional high-end WR1 company.

x.com

x.com

 

[Faust]

How Texans' Nico Collins plans to top breakout 2023 season

 

[BobbyLayne]

Matt Harmon

Just how good was Nico Collins in isolation last season? His #ReceptionPerception success rates put him in some truly exceptional high-end WR1 company.

x.com

x.com

This needs more love. 94th and 96th percentile puts him on an elite list; here is the full list of WR who scored this high in Reception Perception at least once in their careers.

• Stevie Johnson
• Justin Jefferson
• Tyreek Hill
• DeVante Adams
• A.J. Brown
• Stefon Diggs
• Allen Robinson
• Antonio Brown
• Tyler Lockett
• Odell Beckham Jr

 

[Jayded]

Folks underestimating Tank Dell is probably to your own detriment. The Texans added Mixon as well, who's going to steal share from Dell/Collins along with Diggs. I like what the Texans did in re-signing Collins to not-exactly WR1 money because I expect there will not really be one true alpha. It will be between Diggs and Collins as to who is that consistent floor WR on the Texans this coming year; my money being on Collins.

I think Dell might end up being the winner of these moves. He now draws the 3rd secondary defender and good luck to the rest of the league with that. He'll be more volatile, but he might equal Collins in yards but likely exceed him in TDs.

 

[jm192]

Folks underestimating Tank Dell is probably to your own detriment. The Texans added Mixon as well, who's going to steal share from Dell/Collins along with Diggs. I like what the Texans did in re-signing Collins to not-exactly WR1 money because I expect there will not really be one true alpha. It will be between Diggs and Collins as to who is that consistent floor WR on the Texans this coming year; my money being on Collins.

I think Dell might end up being the winner of these moves. He now draws the 3rd secondary defender and good luck to the rest of the league with that. He'll be more volatile, but he might equal Collins in yards but likely exceed him in TDs.

I'll say, after reading the Dell thread, I flipped Dell and Diggs. I think the 2nd half of last year was a warning shot for Diggs. I think he'll be a fine 3rd option in a very good passing game. But he won't be the same guy we've seen. I think Dell is probably 1A or 1B to Nico.

That being said, logically, the 6'4 guy that balled out last year would seem like the favorite to lead the team in receiving TD's.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Folks underestimating Tank Dell is probably to your own detriment. The Texans added Mixon as well, who's going to steal share from Dell/Collins along with Diggs. I like what the Texans did in re-signing Collins to not-exactly WR1 money because I expect there will not really be one true alpha. It will be between Diggs and Collins as to who is that consistent floor WR on the Texans this coming year; my money being on Collins.

I think Dell might end up being the winner of these moves. He now draws the 3rd secondary defender and good luck to the rest of the league with that. He'll be more volatile, but he might equal Collins in yards but likely exceed him in TDs.

I'll say, after reading the Dell thread, I flipped Dell and Diggs. I think the 2nd half of last year was a warning shot for Diggs. I think he'll be a fine 3rd option in a very good passing game. But he won't be the same guy we've seen. I think Dell is probably 1A or 1B to Nico.

That being said, logically, the 6'4 guy that balled out last year would seem like the favorite to lead the team in receiving TD's.

I love Dell. Neither of the two incumbents played more than 27% in the Slot, Diggs was at 40% last year. I'm expecting the guys who CJ Stroud already has a rapport with will dominate 2 receivers sets and Diggs will be mostly the Slot guy in 11 formations.

Houston was 25th in 11 personnel on 1st down (39%), 2nd lowest in 12 personnel (9%), 4th in 21 personnel (29%), 8th in 22 personnel, 28th in 3 TE, 4th in 4 WR Empty sets (19%).

4 WR - 19%
3 WR - 39%
2 WR - 38%
1 WR or 0 WR - 4%

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

That being said, logically, the 6'4 guy that balled out last year would seem like the favorite to lead the team in receiving TD's.

Occam’s razor territory. Clearly a connection with Stroud. I don’t think it was a fluke and I don’t think Diggs arrival did anything but make Nico more affordable.

Dell is good, but they have such different skill sets.

 

[menobrown]

Folks underestimating Tank Dell is probably to your own detriment. The Texans added Mixon as well, who's going to steal share from Dell/Collins along with Diggs. I like what the Texans did in re-signing Collins to not-exactly WR1 money because I expect there will not really be one true alpha

x.com

twitter.com

 

[Jayded]

That being said, logically, the 6'4 guy that balled out last year would seem like the favorite to lead the team in receiving TD's.

Occam’s razor territory. Clearly a connection with Stroud. I don’t think it was a fluke and I don’t think Diggs arrival did anything but make Nico more affordable.

Dell is good, but they have such different skill sets.

I mostly point to TDs last year too. Dell had 7 in 11 games before injury. Collins had 8 in 15 games. So Dell was more likely to score and now draws weaker defense than last year.

Another log on the fire : Metchie has apparently been lighting up camp too. Texans are going to spread it out so just cautioning folks who feel it’s clear he’ll get to 1500 yards. We’d love it as fans, but many mouths to feed plus healthy and additional options makes me think that’s ambitious.

 

[crushedspirit]

Folks underestimating Tank Dell is probably to your own detriment. The Texans added Mixon as well, who's going to steal share from Dell/Collins along with Diggs. I like what the Texans did in re-signing Collins to not-exactly WR1 money because I expect there will not really be one true alpha

x.com

twitter.com

Nico feasts regardless of who's lined up in the slot or at flanker. The other guys need Nico lined up at X to draw coverage, and therein lies the major difference between them all. Dude is an Alpha X WR not sure what some are watching. Matt Harmon explains it better than I can.

Sure his targets might decrease with all the other options, but I'll still wager he finishes tops on the team yet again.

 

[rschroeder1]

That being said, logically, the 6'4 guy that balled out last year would seem like the favorite to lead the team in receiving TD's.

Occam’s razor territory. Clearly a connection with Stroud. I don’t think it was a fluke and I don’t think Diggs arrival did anything but make Nico more affordable.

Dell is good, but they have such different skill sets.

I mostly point to TDs last year too. Dell had 7 in 11 games before injury. Collins had 8 in 15 games. So Dell was more likely to score and now draws weaker defense than last year.

Another log on the fire : Metchie has apparently been lighting up camp too. Texans are going to spread it out so just cautioning folks who feel it’s clear he’ll get to 1500 yards. We’d love it as fans, but many mouths to feed plus healthy and additional options makes me think that’s ambitious.

You're not accounting for variance; by every metric that examines what leads to TD, Collins had the superior season last year.

Since both played less than 10 snaps in the games they were injured in, let's use sample sizes of 10 games for Dell and 14 for Collins. Collins did start one game with Case Keenum at QB, though Collins did catch a TD in that game, so it seems reasonable to include that game in the sample.

2023 stats

Targets
Collins: 7.8/G
Dell: 7.5/G

Receptions
Collins: 5.7/G
Dell: 4.7/G

Yards per reception
Collins: 16.21
Dell: 15.09

Yards per target
Collins: 11.9
Dell: 9.45

Red zone opportunities, 17 game pace

Dell
Inside 20
13. 6 targets, 8.5 catches, 5.1 TD

Inside 10
5.4 targets, 3.4 catches, 3.4 TD

Collins
Inside 20
18.2 targets, 10.8 catches, 7.2 TD

Inside 10
10.8 targets, 6.1 catches, 4.8 TD

If we're trying to predict TD outcomes based on last year's stats, Collins wins via regular game stats. Surely, having more targets and more catches means greater opportunity to score. LIkewise, deeper targets and longer catches.

Red zone stats are clearly in Collins' favor.

 

[Major]

That being said, logically, the 6'4 guy that balled out last year would seem like the favorite to lead the team in receiving TD's.

Occam’s razor territory. Clearly a connection with Stroud. I don’t think it was a fluke and I don’t think Diggs arrival did anything but make Nico more affordable.

Dell is good, but they have such different skill sets.

I mostly point to TDs last year too. Dell had 7 in 11 games before injury. Collins had 8 in 15 games. So Dell was more likely to score and now draws weaker defense than last year.

Yep. I think Dell is the most undervalued of the three especially with leagues who reward long TDs. I think he's going to feast just hoping he stays healthy.

 

[Jayded]

That being said, logically, the 6'4 guy that balled out last year would seem like the favorite to lead the team in receiving TD's.

Occam’s razor territory. Clearly a connection with Stroud. I don’t think it was a fluke and I don’t think Diggs arrival did anything but make Nico more affordable.

Dell is good, but they have such different skill sets.

I mostly point to TDs last year too. Dell had 7 in 11 games before injury. Collins had 8 in 15 games. So Dell was more likely to score and now draws weaker defense than last year.

Another log on the fire : Metchie has apparently been lighting up camp too. Texans are going to spread it out so just cautioning folks who feel it’s clear he’ll get to 1500 yards. We’d love it as fans, but many mouths to feed plus healthy and additional options makes me think that’s ambitious.

You're not accounting for variance; by every metric that examines what leads to TD, Collins had the superior season last year.

Since both played less than 10 snaps in the games they were injured in, let's use sample sizes of 10 games for Dell and 14 for Collins. Collins did start one game with Case Keenum at QB, though Collins did catch a TD in that game, so it seems reasonable to include that game in the sample.

2023 stats

Targets
Collins: 7.8/G
Dell: 7.5/G

Receptions
Collins: 5.7/G
Dell: 4.7/G

Yards per reception
Collins: 16.21
Dell: 15.09

Yards per target
Collins: 11.9
Dell: 9.45

Red zone opportunities, 17 game pace

Dell
Inside 20
13. 6 targets, 8.5 catches, 5.1 TD

Inside 10
5.4 targets, 3.4 catches, 3.4 TD

Collins
Inside 20
18.2 targets, 10.8 catches, 7.2 TD

Inside 10
10.8 targets, 6.1 catches, 4.8 TD

If we're trying to predict TD outcomes based on last year's stats, Collins wins via regular game stats. Surely, having more targets and more catches means greater opportunity to score. LIkewise, deeper targets and longer catches.

Red zone stats are clearly in Collins' favor.

Appreciate the situational stats and it makes sense what you're saying. I'll throw a few others Items into consideration as I also think the situation of how the year played out needs to play into consideration.

Weeks 1-8, Stroud was a mid-teens QB as a rookie getting his feet under him. During those weeks, this is what Dell and Collins looked like as both were playing:

• Collins : 33 catches, 577 yards, 3 TDs
• Dell : 22 catches, 340 yards, 2 TDs

Weeks 9-12, Stroud starts to break out and hit his stride (3rd quarter of the season as teams refer to it and track)

• Collins : 17 catches, 223 yards, 2 TDs
• Dell : 25 catches, 369 yards, 5 TDs

Weeks 13-Playoffs, Dell was hurt and out and Nico really shined as WR1 with injuries and all piling up around him and Stroud getting red hot

• Collins : 41 catches, 661 yards, 4 TDs
• Dell : No stats

So, I do think it was a bit of a tale of 3 parts of the season. Stroud seemed to rely more on Collins early on as he was getting his feet under him and both Stroud and Tank showed rookie growing pains the first half of the season where Nico was showing the beginning of his emergence as a 3rd year player. That 3rd quarter of the season, Stroud/Dellt struck lightning and Dell had a TD in every game. Then Dell got hurt and Nico became the clear cut WR1 for Stroud.

Stroud has a good problem on his hands seeing two guys he trusts above and adding Diggs to the mix. What'll be interesting is if Dell having experience now and being healthy again looks more like Weeks 9-12 or more in line with weeks 1-8 coming into next season.

 

[rschroeder1]

That being said, logically, the 6'4 guy that balled out last year would seem like the favorite to lead the team in receiving TD's.

Occam’s razor territory. Clearly a connection with Stroud. I don’t think it was a fluke and I don’t think Diggs arrival did anything but make Nico more affordable.

Dell is good, but they have such different skill sets.

I mostly point to TDs last year too. Dell had 7 in 11 games before injury. Collins had 8 in 15 games. So Dell was more likely to score and now draws weaker defense than last year.

Another log on the fire : Metchie has apparently been lighting up camp too. Texans are going to spread it out so just cautioning folks who feel it’s clear he’ll get to 1500 yards. We’d love it as fans, but many mouths to feed plus healthy and additional options makes me think that’s ambitious.

You're not accounting for variance; by every metric that examines what leads to TD, Collins had the superior season last year.

Since both played less than 10 snaps in the games they were injured in, let's use sample sizes of 10 games for Dell and 14 for Collins. Collins did start one game with Case Keenum at QB, though Collins did catch a TD in that game, so it seems reasonable to include that game in the sample.

2023 stats

Targets
Collins: 7.8/G
Dell: 7.5/G

Receptions
Collins: 5.7/G
Dell: 4.7/G

Yards per reception
Collins: 16.21
Dell: 15.09

Yards per target
Collins: 11.9
Dell: 9.45

Red zone opportunities, 17 game pace

Dell
Inside 20
13. 6 targets, 8.5 catches, 5.1 TD

Inside 10
5.4 targets, 3.4 catches, 3.4 TD

Collins
Inside 20
18.2 targets, 10.8 catches, 7.2 TD

Inside 10
10.8 targets, 6.1 catches, 4.8 TD

If we're trying to predict TD outcomes based on last year's stats, Collins wins via regular game stats. Surely, having more targets and more catches means greater opportunity to score. LIkewise, deeper targets and longer catches.

Red zone stats are clearly in Collins' favor.

Appreciate the situational stats and it makes sense what you're saying. I'll throw a few others Items into consideration as I also think the situation of how the year played out needs to play into consideration.

Weeks 1-8, Stroud was a mid-teens QB as a rookie getting his feet under him. During those weeks, this is what Dell and Collins looked like as both were playing:

• Collins : 33 catches, 577 yards, 3 TDs
• Dell : 22 catches, 340 yards, 2 TDs

Weeks 9-12, Stroud starts to break out and hit his stride (3rd quarter of the season as teams refer to it and track)

• Collins : 17 catches, 223 yards, 2 TDs
• Dell : 25 catches, 369 yards, 5 TDs

Weeks 13-Playoffs, Dell was hurt and out and Nico really shined as WR1 with injuries and all piling up around him and Stroud getting red hot

• Collins : 41 catches, 661 yards, 4 TDs
• Dell : No stats

So, I do think it was a bit of a tale of 3 parts of the season. Stroud seemed to rely more on Collins early on as he was getting his feet under him and both Stroud and Tank showed rookie growing pains the first half of the season where Nico was showing the beginning of his emergence as a 3rd year player. That 3rd quarter of the season, Stroud/Dellt struck lightning and Dell had a TD in every game. Then Dell got hurt and Nico became the clear cut WR1 for Stroud.

Stroud has a good problem on his hands seeing two guys he trusts above and adding Diggs to the mix. What'll be interesting is if Dell having experience now and being healthy again looks more like Weeks 9-12 or more in line with weeks 1-8 coming into next season.

There are a lot of variables here, so it's fair to say that last season may not be a benchmark of seasons to come. That said, a four-game sample is once again bringing variance into play.

Collins didn't play in Week 10, a game in which Dell earned 14 targets. Dell had a great Week 10, but the leading receiver in yards for the Texans was actually Noah Brown (Dell 2 TD, Brown 1 TD). Likewise, Brown led Texans receivers in yards in Week 9 as well. Here's where such small sample sizes get weird - if we're going to determine that as Stroud and Dell both matured, that Stroud preferred Dell over Collins, wouldn't we have to reasonably conclude that as Stroud matured, he preferred Noah Brown the most?

If we truly want to evaluate small samples, the reasonable conclusions here are:

- Dell had some excellent real-life and fantasy games in the four-game sample, but in those games there was literally another player posting excellent fantasy and real-life statistics.
- Likewise, there basically isn't a game where Dell assumed the mantle as "the guy." In fairness, he was a rookie, and that's asking a lot. But we can only forecast a dominant role for him, whereas we have seen Collins function as the clear #1 in this offense.

I have no doubt there will be some quiet weeks for Collins with three quality receivers, but there is ample evidence to support the notion this offense can support multiple high-level fantasy receivers on a week-to-week basis.

 

[jm192]

After a lot of great back and forth in all the threads, I think I've settled on

Nico: WR13
Dell: WR26
Diggs: WR34

I previously had Nico at 19, Diggs at 26, and Dell somewhere in the 30's. I think Diggs gave us a warning shot in the 2nd half of last year. I think he'll be the 3rd best WR on this team. He'll also help open things up for the other 2. Defenses still gotta respect him.

I think Nico is unique in that he's the one sure fire outside WR. Dell and Diggs could both play some slot interchangeably. I also think the TD upside is just the highest with Nico.

I'll probably do more moving around between now and Draft time, but the moves probably get less dramatic.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

After a lot of great back and forth in all the threads, I think I've settled on

Nico: WR13
Dell: WR26
Diggs: WR34

I previously had Nico at 19, Diggs at 26, and Dell somewhere in the 30's. I think Diggs gave us a warning shot in the 2nd half of last year. I think he'll be the 3rd best WR on this team. He'll also help open things up for the other 2. Defenses still gotta respect him.

I think Nico is unique in that he's the one sure fire outside WR. Dell and Diggs could both play some slot interchangeably. I also think the TD upside is just the highest with Nico.

I'll probably do more moving around between now and Draft time, but the moves probably get less dramatic.

I don’t mind this evaluation.

I’d also suggest with the recent Metchie buzz that if Metchie becomes impactful, at 5’11 he’s more likely to hurt Diggs & Dell’s targets/production than Nico.

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

I strongly suspect that on any given week, 1 of Collins, Diggs, Dell, Metchie, or Woods will post strong games. These guys will likely all be best ball values. However, I'm concerned that Stroud's maturation will mean the ball will get spread around to the best matchup of the week and none of these guys will be a consistent traditional FF WR1.

 

[BobbyLayne]

I strongly suspect that on any given week, 1 of Collins, Diggs, Dell, Metchie, or Woods will post strong games. These guys will likely all be best ball values. However, I'm concerned that Stroud's maturation will mean the ball will get spread around to the best matchup of the week and none of these guys will be a consistent traditional FF WR1.

Don’t think Woods will make the 53-man. He's set to account for the third-largest cap hit on the roster at $9.7 million. Ideally, they could trade him and save $6.5 million, but releasing him outright would still save $5 million ($4.7m dead cap.)

Noah Brown is 4 years younger and had some monster games last year. I think Xavier Hutchinson showed enough promise they won’t risk trying to stash him on the practice squad but who knows - last two spots comes down to him, Brown or Ben Skoronek.

They kept 5 last year bc Brown was hurt at the start of ye season, likely keeping 6 this year. If they only keep 3 TE (Jordan, Schultz, Stover) they could keep Skowronek as a FB/H-back/TE, but they paid next to nothing to acquire him. My take:

Nico Collins, Tank Dell, Stefon Diggs, Noah Brown, John Metchie III, Xavier Hutchinson/Ben Skowronek

 

[Major]

I strongly suspect that on any given week, 1 of Collins, Diggs, Dell, Metchie, or Woods will post strong games. These guys will likely all be best ball values. However, I'm concerned that Stroud's maturation will mean the ball will get spread around to the best matchup of the week and none of these guys will be a consistent traditional FF WR1.

I don't trust Metchie at all even with all the off season hype. Collins, Dell, Diggs and Brown are your guys for fantasy.

 

[Dez]

I haven't been keeping up, is he still a thing?

Strange that @JohnnyU did not make an appearance in this thread in 2023 when Nico was blowing up. Funny how people are left for dead after 1 or 2 years. I remember thinking I totally blew it drafting Hopkins over Patterson in a rookie draft when Patterson got all the hype year 2 and everyone was down on Hopkins. Sometimes you have to be patient.

 

[Major]

It does if they don’t have a qb

You have no idea who their QB will be.

We can expect it to be a mess in 2020. But unless they are Jets level of long term incompetence, bad teams support fantasy players, especially WRs, all the time.

His ADP is surrounded by Kenny Gainwell, Pat Freirmuth, Amari Rodgers, Josh Palmer, Chuba Hubbard. I can make a great argument for Amari Rodgers over him, but I can make a beter argument for Collins over the rest of those names. I will take the shot on WR1 potential in the late 2nd/early 3rd.

 

[JohnnyU]

It does if they don’t have a qb

You have no idea who their QB will be.

We can expect it to be a mess in 2020. But unless they are Jets level of long term incompetence, bad teams support fantasy players, especially WRs, all the time.

His ADP is surrounded by Kenny Gainwell, Pat Freirmuth, Amari Rodgers, Josh Palmer, Chuba Hubbard. I can make a great argument for Amari Rodgers over him, but I can make a beter argument for Collins over the rest of those names. I will take the shot on WR1 potential in the late 2nd/early 3rd.

Well, those are some older posts. I'm glad to see players breakout and others get drafted to help situations, but predicting these things are hard and we can only hope to get lucky.

 

[massraider]

It does if they don’t have a qb

You have no idea who their QB will be.

We can expect it to be a mess in 2020. But unless they are Jets level of long term incompetence, bad teams support fantasy players, especially WRs, all the time.

His ADP is surrounded by Kenny Gainwell, Pat Freirmuth, Amari Rodgers, Josh Palmer, Chuba Hubbard. I can make a great argument for Amari Rodgers over him, but I can make a beter argument for Collins over the rest of those names. I will take the shot on WR1 potential in the late 2nd/early 3rd.

Well, those are some older posts. I'm glad to see players breakout and others get drafted to help situations, but predicting these things are hard and we can only hope to get lucky.

For sure. I do however fully support @Major , and anyone else really, digging up my old takes that turned out correct.

 

[JohnnyU]

It does if they don’t have a qb

You have no idea who their QB will be.

We can expect it to be a mess in 2020. But unless they are Jets level of long term incompetence, bad teams support fantasy players, especially WRs, all the time.

His ADP is surrounded by Kenny Gainwell, Pat Freirmuth, Amari Rodgers, Josh Palmer, Chuba Hubbard. I can make a great argument for Amari Rodgers over him, but I can make a beter argument for Collins over the rest of those names. I will take the shot on WR1 potential in the late 2nd/early 3rd.

Well, those are some older posts. I'm glad to see players breakout and others get drafted to help situations, but predicting these things are hard and we can only hope to get lucky.

For sure. I do however fully support @Major , and anyone else really, digging up my old takes that turned out correct.

Drafting Stroud was a game changer. Love the guy.

 

[Major]

It does if they don’t have a qb

You have no idea who their QB will be.

We can expect it to be a mess in 2020. But unless they are Jets level of long term incompetence, bad teams support fantasy players, especially WRs, all the time.

His ADP is surrounded by Kenny Gainwell, Pat Freirmuth, Amari Rodgers, Josh Palmer, Chuba Hubbard. I can make a great argument for Amari Rodgers over him, but I can make a beter argument for Collins over the rest of those names. I will take the shot on WR1 potential in the late 2nd/early 3rd.

Well, those are some older posts. I'm glad to see players breakout and others get drafted to help situations, but predicting these things are hard and we can only hope to get lucky.

For sure. I do however fully support @Major , and anyone else really, digging up my old takes that turned out correct.

Drafting Stroud was a game changer. Love the guy.

Exactly. As Massraider tried to tell you earlier during all your anti Nico rants "You have no idea who their QB will be".

 

[JohnnyU]

It does if they don’t have a qb

You have no idea who their QB will be.

We can expect it to be a mess in 2020. But unless they are Jets level of long term incompetence, bad teams support fantasy players, especially WRs, all the time.

His ADP is surrounded by Kenny Gainwell, Pat Freirmuth, Amari Rodgers, Josh Palmer, Chuba Hubbard. I can make a great argument for Amari Rodgers over him, but I can make a beter argument for Collins over the rest of those names. I will take the shot on WR1 potential in the late 2nd/early 3rd.

Well, those are some older posts. I'm glad to see players breakout and others get drafted to help situations, but predicting these things are hard and we can only hope to get lucky.

For sure. I do however fully support @Major , and anyone else really, digging up my old takes that turned out correct.

Drafting Stroud was a game changer. Love the guy.

Exactly. As Massraider tried to tell you earlier during all your anti Nico rants "You have no idea who their QB will be".

True, we didn't know who their QB would be and drafting Stroud was good for all their skill players. I'm glad to see it all come together for them, because I became a fan of OSU when I married into a buckeye family 27 years ago. Having said that, as a Colts fan, I hate that it was Houston who got him.

 

[Bozeman Bruiser]

It does if they don’t have a qb

You have no idea who their QB will be.

We can expect it to be a mess in 2020. But unless they are Jets level of long term incompetence, bad teams support fantasy players, especially WRs, all the time.

His ADP is surrounded by Kenny Gainwell, Pat Freirmuth, Amari Rodgers, Josh Palmer, Chuba Hubbard. I can make a great argument for Amari Rodgers over him, but I can make a beter argument for Collins over the rest of those names. I will take the shot on WR1 potential in the late 2nd/early 3rd.

Well, those are some older posts. I'm glad to see players breakout and others get drafted to help situations, but predicting these things are hard and we can only hope to get lucky.

For sure. I do however fully support @Major , and anyone else really, digging up my old takes that turned out correct.

WR Nathaniel “Tank” Dell, HOU

Texans WR Tank Dell Is 'Joy To Coach'

forums.footballguys.com

He's adorable, and it's a cute name, but I am trying to win fantasy titles.

No, I have a weight minimum, just like the NFL.

What player that size has ever hit major ROI?

Someone bigger than a hamster

I think Dell is most likely a roster clogger. Good enough to keep, not good enough to win you anything. He holds that roster spot, and that's one more spot I cannot pick up that UDFA RB flavor of the month, or whatever. Churning the end of the roster has value, and Dell needs to be Jarvis Landry level of targets (IMO) because he's not going to be a regular red zone threat.

And that is just page 2.

I remember your posts about Tank last season and thinking he must have made love to your mom or something. After reading this thread it all makes sense, you were already all in on Nico.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I remember your posts about Tank last season and thinking he must have made love to your mom or something. After reading this thread it all makes sense, you were already all in on Nico.

Not sure how this advances the discussion.

 

[smbkrypt24]

I remember your posts about Tank last season and thinking he must have made love to your mom or something. After reading this thread it all makes sense, you were already all in on Nico.

Not sure how this advances the discussion.

Well if true, that would be crucial information.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Well if true, that would be crucial information.

And hey, good for his mom. She must be smokin hot to land an NFL player. No judgement on the spring/fall romance.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Nico’s ADP last year was WR60.

Who has the potential to vastly outperform their ADP this year?

• Curtis Samuel
• Khalil Shakir
• Jameson Williams
• Hollywood Brown
• Zay Flowers
• Coleman, Odunze, Thomas or another rookie (besides Nabers or MHJ who should smash)

 

[massraider]

I remember your posts about Tank last season and thinking he must have made love to your mom or something. After reading this thread it all makes sense, you were already all in on Nico.

Dell vs Nico for me was always playing the odds.

A guy that size needs to be a dramatic outlier to be a consistent dynasty difference maker. I mean, year in, year out, starter. He needs to be an outlier to be a fantasy WR3, and an insane outlier to be a fantasy WR1.

So as long as there are guys who fit that profile I will always lean that way. I can live with missing out on a Devonta Smith, because I wanna make sure I don't miss out on an AJ Brown.

Sometimes you wind up with Cedric Tillman instead of Tank Dell, but then sometimes you wind up with Puka Nacua.

 

[Rockchild]

I think the addition of Bobby Slowik plays a big role in the success of all the Texans offensive players.

 

[Major]

I think the addition of Bobby Slowik plays a big role in the success of all the Texans offensive players.

As a Texans fan, I never want him to leave. Not sure how much longer they can hold on to him until he's offered a HC spot elsewhere.

 

[Faust]

Jonathan M Alexander
To be 6-4 and this agile is actually kind of crazy.

Derek Stingley once told me, big receivers tend be slow with their hips, you can predict where they make their moves.

Nico Collins is the opposite. He has the ability to make people miss

x.com

x.com

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Jonathan M Alexander
To be 6-4 and this agile is actually kind of crazy.

Derek Stingley once told me, big receivers tend be slow with their hips, you can predict where they make their moves.

Nico Collins is the opposite. He has the ability to make people miss

x.com

x.com

I remember an article saying the same thing about tall CBs, the reason there aren't more of them is because they usually can't flex their hips as well as a shorter CB.

 

[travdogg]

Jonathan M Alexander
To be 6-4 and this agile is actually kind of crazy.

Derek Stingley once told me, big receivers tend be slow with their hips, you can predict where they make their moves.

Nico Collins is the opposite. He has the ability to make people miss

x.com

x.com

I remember an article saying the same thing about tall CBs, the reason there aren't more of them is because they usually can't flex their hips as well as a shorter CB.

Taller guys typically succeed more in certain schemes. For example, Richard Sherman and Nnamdi Asomugha were elite CBs in zone heavy schemes, when they switched teams to different defenses, they weren't the same, and potentially unrelated both started getting injured.

I think there needs to be a push more using more tall WRs as big slots ala Marques Colston. Collins is athletic enough where he doesn't need to, but I think a lot of younger bigger WRs could use the more WR friendly roles. Keon Coleman comes to mind as someone who should be used like that. I think it would benefit Drake London as well, but the Falcons often us Kyle Pitts that way so its a tad redundant.

I'm getting higher on Nico as the offseason goes on. I was kinda putting all 3 Texans WRs as equals when the Diggs trade happened, but I'm starting to come around to the Diggs might just be the #3 way of thinking. Still loving the Dell value more, but much like in Philly, I'm happy to draft both Collins/Dell.

 

[Scoresman]

This is how I have the HOU WRs projected right now.

Diggs 125/81 934 yards 8 TD
Collins 125/88 1,155 yards 8 TD
Dell 102/63 954 yards 8 TD

 

[Alex P Keaton]

This is how I have the HOU WRs projected right now.

Diggs 125/81 934 yards 8 TD
Collins 125/88 1,155 yards 8 TD
Dell 102/63 954 yards 8 TD

Mine aren’t dissimilar

Diggs: 119/81 for 971 yds and 7 TDs
Collins: 115/77 for 1076 yds and 8 TDs
Dell: 94/58 for 899 yds and 5 TDs

Dell’s TD rate was an outlier last year and it’s hard to see that continuing. Of course, it could happen.

 

[travdogg]

This is how I have the HOU WRs projected right now.

Diggs 125/81 934 yards 8 TD
Collins 125/88 1,155 yards 8 TD
Dell 102/63 954 yards 8 TD

Mine aren’t dissimilar

Diggs: 119/81 for 971 yds and 7 TDs
Collins: 115/77 for 1076 yds and 8 TDs
Dell: 94/58 for 899 yds and 5 TDs

Dell’s TD rate was an outlier last year and it’s hard to see that continuing. Of course, it could happen.

At the moment I've got:

Diggs: 80-900-5
Collins: 80-1200-7
Dell: 70-1000-6
Schultz: 60-600-5
Mixon: 30-200-1, well below his Bengals numbers, but I'm expecting a monopoly on carries so like 1100-7 on the ground.

Figure about 4600-29 from Stroud, with maybe 1-3 rush TDs.

I don't see Metchie/Brown doing much without an injury.

 

[Grid71]

It does if they don’t have a qb

You have no idea who their QB will be.

We can expect it to be a mess in 2020. But unless they are Jets level of long term incompetence, bad teams support fantasy players, especially WRs, all the time.

His ADP is surrounded by Kenny Gainwell, Pat Freirmuth, Amari Rodgers, Josh Palmer, Chuba Hubbard. I can make a great argument for Amari Rodgers over him, but I can make a beter argument for Collins over the rest of those names. I will take the shot on WR1 potential in the late 2nd/early 3rd.

Well, those are some older posts. I'm glad to see players breakout and others get drafted to help situations, but predicting these things are hard and we can only hope to get lucky.

For sure. I do however fully support @Major , and anyone else really, digging up my old takes that turned out correct.

WR Nathaniel “Tank” Dell, HOU

Texans WR Tank Dell Is 'Joy To Coach'

forums.footballguys.com

He's adorable, and it's a cute name, but I am trying to win fantasy titles.

No, I have a weight minimum, just like the NFL.

What player that size has ever hit major ROI?

Someone bigger than a hamster

I think Dell is most likely a roster clogger. Good enough to keep, not good enough to win you anything. He holds that roster spot, and that's one more spot I cannot pick up that UDFA RB flavor of the month, or whatever. Churning the end of the roster has value, and Dell needs to be Jarvis Landry level of targets (IMO) because he's not going to be a regular red zone threat.

And that is just page 2.

I remember your posts about Tank last season and thinking he must have made love to your mom or something. After reading this thread it all makes sense, you were already all in on Nico.

I've never missed on a player either. Please delete the Trey Lance thread... thank you in advance.

 

[kyoun1e]

Quiet in here.

Feel like he's undervalued. True X in a high powered offense.

Would rather have him in the 3rd vs. pretty much every WR in the second round.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Quiet in here.

Feel like he's undervalued. True X in a high powered offense.

Would rather have him in the 3rd vs. pretty much every WR in the second round.

I made him a key piece coming back when I dealt Mahomes last offseason.

I love the dude. He’s definitely underrated. Should be a 2nd round pick, and he’s mid 3rd.

 

[SoBeDad]

Quiet in here.

Feel like he's undervalued. True X in a high powered offense.

Would rather have him in the 3rd vs. pretty much every WR in the second round.

Only 2 drops with 80 catches, a top 2 drop rate among high volume WRs. Plus, their best RZ WR. But Tank Dell and Diggs aren't chopped liver, especially Dell if healthy. Dell isn't a bad consolation prize in this offense.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Only 2 drops with 80 catches, a top 2 drop rate among high volume WRs. Plus, their best RZ WR. But Tank Dell and Diggs aren't chopped liver, especially Dell if healthy. Dell isn't a bad consolation prize in this offense.

IMO Diggs & a healthy Dell will only make it harder for defenses to cover Nico. He did a lot of his damage after the catch, too.

Totally agree, and Dell is among my favorite redraft targets if I miss Nico early. Heck, I might even take him if I draft Nico early.