I wonder how often a big game for a rookie’s debut translates into a quality FF starter during their first year?
I remember Anquan Boldin’s 10 catches for 217 yard in his first game in 2003 and how he had a great season. I passed on him at the time.
So I asked chatGPT to search for all rookie WRs with eight or more catches in their first game and got seven instances including one from a RB.
As of my last update in January 2022, several rookie wide receivers had 8 or more receptions in their NFL debuts. Here are some of them:
- Earl Cooper (1980) - San Francisco 49ers: 12 receptions. (Note: While Cooper was primarily a running back, he caught these passes in his debut.)
- Anquan Boldin (2003) - Arizona Cardinals: 10 receptions.
- Terry McLaurin (2019) - Washington Redskins: 9 receptions.
- DeAndre Hopkins (2013) - Houston Texans: 8 receptions.
- Kenny Golladay (2017) - Detroit Lions: 8 receptions.
- Michael Thomas (2016) - New Orleans Saints: 8 receptions.
- Eddie Royal (2008) - Denver Broncos: 8 receptions.
Here are their rookie stats…
- Earl Cooper (1980, San Francisco 49ers):
- Receptions: 83
- Receiving Yards: 567
- Receiving Touchdowns: 4 (Note: These stats blend receiving with his primary role as a running back)
- Anquan Boldin (2003, Arizona Cardinals):
- Receptions: 101
- Receiving Yards: 1,377
- Receiving Touchdowns: 8
- Terry McLaurin (2019, Washington Redskins):
- Receptions: 58
- Receiving Yards: 919
- Receiving Touchdowns: 7
- DeAndre Hopkins (2013, Houston Texans):
- Receptions: 52
- Receiving Yards: 802
- Receiving Touchdowns: 2
- Kenny Golladay (2017, Detroit Lions):
- Receptions: 28
- Receiving Yards: 477
- Receiving Touchdowns: 3
- Michael Thomas (2016, New Orleans Saints):
- Receptions: 92
- Receiving Yards: 1,137
- Receiving Touchdowns: 9
- Eddie Royal (2008, Denver Broncos):
- Receptions: 91
- Receiving Yards: 980
- Receiving Touchdowns: 5
From purely a statistical perspective, presuming this is a good sample and the right cutoff of eight catches in a rookie debut, then it could be argued that there is a reasonable possibility that Nacua will put up comparable numbers to his predecessors. IF I accept this argument (and I do), then it looks like Nacua is a pretty good bet to pickup on waivers.
So the next question is…how much to bid out of $100 in a FAAB waiver system?