Scooby1974
Footballguy
Hold up. You mean, Kupp is better than these jokers and I'm JUST NOW HEARING THIS!?!?
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WR Puka Nacua LAR (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Drake Hater
Footballguy
Does this guy do analysis like this on other defenses as well?
Faust
MVP
His Twitter feed is full of this type of analysis
Put me in the camp that most players can't handle getting tackled 10 to 15 times a game. That's like RB usage, granted less violent collisions.
A guy who catches 120 passes is taking approximately double the tackles as a guy who catches 60 passes. Does that double the injury risk? I would say so.
I think he's a sell high. Especially with Cooper Kupp coming back. I think he's doing the kid a favor because Stafford will throw to this kid until he doesn't get up. It's just a lot of catches. Similar to Michael Thomas, I think those few HIGH VOLUME seasons shortened his prime and destroyed his lower body.
A guy who catches 120 passes is taking approximately double the tackles as a guy who catches 60 passes. Does that double the injury risk? I would say so.
I think he's a sell high. Especially with Cooper Kupp coming back. I think he's doing the kid a favor because Stafford will throw to this kid until he doesn't get up. It's just a lot of catches. Similar to Michael Thomas, I think those few HIGH VOLUME seasons shortened his prime and destroyed his lower body.
I grabbed Puka off waivers after Week 1. Figured he is either a Frisman Jackson or a Anquan Boldin. Kid is Boldin easily. I recall one highlight where he got knocked out of bounds near the goal line. That would have been big points for a long TD. May have had other plays called back due to penalty or similar so this kid could easily be the #1 WR over Jefferson and Hill in most leagues. Cupp's return can only help him since he is getting the top attention right now from defenses. He also plays on the outside so its not like he is just filling a role for Cupp while he is out. Plus...we think Cupp is going to stay healthy after this hammy/nerve issue? Nah
RenegadeRoy
Footballguy
Correct. I feel like people consistently miss this detail. They see Rams #1 and think it's Kupp's spot. It's not. Puka and Kupp play different roles.
Puka is going to be the old Woods role when Kupp returns. Tutu has the most to lose (and is possibly benefitting more from defenses now focusing on Puka, which will flip to Puka's benefit once Kupp is back). Another thing to consider is Tutu has been on the team since 2021 and was never really a world beater in that time.
I will take the guy catching 120 passes with 2x the injury risk over the guy catching 60 passes.
I will take the guy catching 120 passes with 2x the injury risk over the guy catching 60 passes.
It's the right move because there's no guarantee the bottom falls out short term. It's more of a long-term concern. Like Kupp's historic season, even if he's injury prone during the rest of his playing days... he was a league winner the year of his insane volume.
"I don't need him to produce 5 years from now. I need him to produce now." But also, keep in mind you're more likely going to need to handcuff / have depth behind these high volume cats. I am a huge believer in wear and tear. Catching 10 passes a game is cool until all those hits add up just in time for him to get hurt for fantasy playoffs.
It could be coincidence, but I think Cooper Kupp put 2-3 years of wear on his body during his historic season. He's only 30 but all that wear and injury puts him at like 32-33 in my book.
eighsse2
Footballguy
Not to mention, it would likely be more like squaring the likelihood that he does not get injured. Not the same as doubling. Though, given the fact that each catch is additional wear, it could be somewhere between what I said and double. Not any kind of expert on medicine.I will take the guy catching 120 passes with 2x the injury risk over the guy catching 60 passes.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
That ball was underthrown - he didn’t trip, he had to come back for it and slid awkwardly to the ground to make the catch. Woulda been an easy 6 with a better throw.
Not to mention, it would likely be more like squaring the likelihood that he does not get injured. Not the same as doubling. Though, given the fact that each catch is additional wear, it could be somewhere between what I said and double. Not any kind of expert on medicine.I will take the guy catching 120 passes with 2x the injury risk over the guy catching 60 passes.
I just figured that if I bought 2 lottery tickets instead of 1, that doubles my chance.
Each tackle doesn't have a fixed rate of potential injury, so that is not a direct correlation. However, the "opportunity" for injury is approximately double.
It's the difference of a guy getting gently pushed out of bounds vs blown up over the middle that makes any type of distinction tough, but in my book if I touch the ball twice as much as you, I have twice as much opportunity to get hurt. The rest would come down to body composition, toughness, etc.
For instance, my likelihood of getting injured on 1 catch is more likely than any of these guys getting tackled on 500 catches and then it scales from there. Lbs.
You'd need some kind of supercomputer to quantify it.
eighsse2
Footballguy
All makes sense. I guess all I can say is, mathematically, suppose we do have the "probability of survival without significant injury" p(1), p(2), ... pNot to mention, it would likely be more like squaring the likelihood that he does not get injured. Not the same as doubling. Though, given the fact that each catch is additional wear, it could be somewhere between what I said and double. Not any kind of expert on medicine.I will take the guy catching 120 passes with 2x the injury risk over the guy catching 60 passes.
I just figured that if I bought 2 lottery tickets instead of 1, that doubles my chance.
Each tackle doesn't have a fixed rate of potential injury, so that is not a direct correlation. However, the "opportunity" for injury is approximately double.
It's the difference of a guy getting gently pushed out of bounds vs blown up over the middle that makes any type of distinction tough, but in my book if I touch the ball twice as much as you, I have twice as much opportunity to get hurt. The rest would come down to body composition, toughness, etc.
For instance, my likelihood of getting injured on 1 catch is more likely than any of these guys getting tackled on 500 catches and then it scales from there. Lbs.
You'd need some kind of supercomputer to quantify it.
for each individual play (we don't know those numbers, but we know they exist). The probability that he does not get injured in those n plays is p(1)*p(2)*...*p.If you suppose the plays overall have a geometrical mean of 1/200 probability of injury (making that number up), then for 60 plays, the probability of survival is around 74% (i.e., 26% injury). For 120 plays, probability of survival is around 55% (i.e., 45% injury). Even if what I'm saying is right, that's not far off from double anyway in this somewhat realistic model
(Sorry to get off topic, always enjoy an opportunity to do some math when it's within the scope that I actually understand.)Eta: I guess an n in ( ) becomes a
The Future Champs
Footballguy
9/163/1 on 10 targets. OK, lets see a show of hands of managers who cashed out early.
dickey moe
Fingerpicker
This kid just has it. STUD
BlackCrowes
Footballguy
JamboTaylor
Footballguy
He’s not going anywhere
taylormeetstheismann
Footballguy
Not me! What day!
OU#1
Footballguy
titusbramble
Footballguy
My team last year was two girls one Kupp, changed it this year to two girls one Jefferson on account of a change of the primary receiver
Ilov80s
Footballguy
The real test will be once Kupp returns but it sure seems kind of undeniable now
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Verdict: legit.
There’s no putting this genie back in the bottle. Kupp will hurt Tutu. Puka = Woods 2.0
So excited about his future, fr.
There’s no putting this genie back in the bottle. Kupp will hurt Tutu. Puka = Woods 2.0
So excited about his future, fr.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
But Kupp plays the slot. Puka plays outside. Kupp drawing coverage could even (gasp) make Puka better.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Could be but the offense is about to add a guy who usually gets like 8-16 targets a game. Those will come at someone’s expense, right?
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Perhaps but we don’t know yet, it remains to be seen how it plays out
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Tutu plays the slot. It only makes sense. But you’re right. We don’t know, know. We think we know.
taylormeetstheismann
Footballguy
Puka Nacua no longer just looks promising. He’s looks like a WR1. Might end up ROY. Could be a league winner for a team with a good draft that added him via waivers.
packdog
Footballguy
higher than the ones offered last week just like the weeks before. i have a lot of puka. no one is offering enough for me to let go. people trying to trade for him prolly think kupp's potential return is a good reason to not pay alot. maybe right or wrong but it means it's not enough.
jerry jones
Footballguy
I feel like I’m playing against children…picked up on waivers Puka week 1, and followed that up with Achane the next. Gonna be tough to beat me
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Banger
Footballguy
The allure of the unknown upside…
Phantom Knight
Footballguy
I sat him for Aiyuk at the last minute. (sigh)
kupcho1
Footballguy
ProstheticRGK
Footballguy
This kid is the NUTZ! that is all
dipandglide
Footballguy
I doubt a mid-1st gets it done
I'd wait for Kupp to return to buy high or wait altogether. It's ambitious to try and buy high on guys like Puka or Achane right now.
Yeah. At this point you'd need to offer multiple firsts. Borderline untradeable. No guarantee either of those first turn into half of what Puka is doing.
"Oh, I don't want a younger, better Cooper Kupp."
dipandglide
Footballguy
I can't disagree. I've bailed early on ASB, Ekeler, Diggs, and I'm sure others too early over the years.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Puka Nacua is currently outpacing the two best receiving yard seasons in NFL history through 4 games
- ('23) Puka Nacua - 501 Rec Yds
- ('21) Cooper Kupp - 431
- ('12) Calvin Johnson - 423
Largent
Footballguy
Stafford is a king maker
packdog
Footballguy
The allure of proven upside
Junior McSpiffy
Footballguy
Rams fan, BYU fan, you better believe I spent my last pick on Puka and then laughed as everyone scrambled for the waiver wire week one only to find the cupboard bare.
Navin Johnson
Footballguy
He wasn't drafted in either of my leagues, although one is a short bench league. 12x18 with 10 starters I got him off waivers before week 1.
