dipandglide
Footballguy
A lot of people were dancing on this guy's grave. You love to see people shut up the haters.
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WR Quentin Johnston, LAC (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter greenmountaingoat
- Start date
Smack Tripper
Footballguy
THIS is a big part of the faith I had in him, I believe Harbaugh coaching these guys up, you can see he's playing with confidence right now. Love to see it.x.com
x.com
More concerning thing at this point is Justin Herbert not being able to stay on the field. Quentin looks primed for a big jump from his rookie year otherwisex.com
TampaMike19
Footballguy
I mean the passing volume has been abysmal and yesterday's matchup was bad. He did deliver on a blown coverage TD but he did what he was supposed to do.
And if the Chargers keep using him like an athlete and less like a traditional alpha x receiver then why does that matter? Maybe they feel they have another Deebo on their hands and that is amazing for fantasy. There are also not that many difference makers at WR on this team yet. Maybe McConkey becomes a PPR monster but he's still young.
jm192
Footballguy
But the whole "The passing volume is bad" excuse for him:
Do we think it's going to get significantly better? Hebert is averaging just over 21 attempts per game. They won their 1st 2 games. Not a lot of volume. They lost yesterday. Not a lot of volume. We've seen both sides of the coin.
The narrative of the off-season was that Harbaugh would run the ball and win with defense. I actually thought it was way overstated. Through 3 games, I've been wrong.
I don't understand the Deebo comparison? Deebo gets a significant amount of rushing volume that adds to his value. QJ has 0 rushes so far. I don't think they're trying to make him the next DEebo.
ilianawindfae
Footballguy
I don't think there's anything flukey about a 6 ft 3 guy catching touchdowns. He's the Chargers best RZ option and Justin Herbert throws a lot of touchdowns.
He's better this year and his primary competition for targets from last year are gone. Dude eats up single coverage or has been through 3 games.
jm192
Footballguy
3 TDs in 3 games is fluke. 3 TD's on 13 targets is a fluke.
He'll have some TD's. He won't keep up this pace.
TVT 0 N S T A
Footballguy
His endzone targets have kept him afloat but I am still practicing my eulogy.
ilianawindfae
Footballguy
I don't think it's a fluke. He fits the definition of a red zone threat. He's 6 ft 3, he's supposed to be catching a bunch of touchdowns.
That's why you draft guys like that, fade routes and single coverage. If he was 5 ft 11, I'd be with the fluke angle, but he is literally the best red zone option on the team.
Why would Herbert stop throwing it to him in the end zone if he keeps catching them? I think he's just getting started, but that's just me. Not sure who else is a better option to throw to in the red zone than your athletic freak 6 ft 3 receiver. He's going to continue to score touchdowns because he will continue to see more redzone targets than everyone else on the team.
jm192
Footballguy
You don't think 3 TD's in 3 games is a fluke? So you think he'll have 17 touchdowns?
You don't think 3 TD's on 13 targets is a fluke? So you think he'll score a touchdown about once every 4 times he touches the ball?
Both seems a little far fetched, no?
ilianawindfae
Footballguy
I think he will be a guy who can score 0.6 touchdowns per game. That's to say he will score touchdowns in 60% of the games he plays in.
That gets him around 10-12TD. In which case, he will inevitably score touchdowns in back to back games at some point and even have games where he scores multiple touchdowns.
I don't think the target rate is a fluke on account of his usage is to get targets in the endzone. They will continue to target him in the endzone because it's working.
Similar to Alexander Mattison. He has 7 carries the last two weeks and 2 TD. Why? Because he gets goalline carries, so it's not flukey when he scores in back-to-back weeks because he is featured in the redzone the same way the Chargers feature Johnston in the redzone.
Again, if this was a shorter player, sure, but it would seem to me that the Chargers gameplan is to have Johnston lead the team in endzone / redzone targets and if that continues, then I would expect him to continue to score touchdowns.
On other parts of the field, the targets go to McConkey, but the deep shots and endzone looks have been going to Quentin and he's been making plays. A smart coach might consider giving him more targets of that nature.
I like players who score touchdowns!!
shadrap
Footballguy
I'm more worried about Herbert & his bad wheel. without him Johnson is screwed. actually the whole team is.
ilianawindfae
Footballguy
Agreed, without Herbert this entire conversation is a non-starter.
jm192
Footballguy
Me: His TD rate of 1 TD per game is not sustainable
I think he will be a guy who can score 0.6 touchdowns per game. That's to say he will score touchdowns in 60% of the games he plays in.
That gets him around 10-12TD. In which case, he will inevitably score touchdowns in back to back games at some point and even have games where he scores multiple touchdowns.
I don't think the target rate is a fluke on account of his usage is to get targets in the endzone. They will continue to target him in the endzone because it's working.
Similar to Alexander Mattison. He has 7 carries the last two weeks and 2 TD. Why? Because he gets goalline carries, so it's not flukey when he scores in back-to-back weeks because he is featured in the redzone the same way the Chargers feature Johnston in the redzone.
Again, if this was a shorter player, sure, but it would seem to me that the Chargers gameplan is to have Johnston lead the team in endzone / redzone targets and if that continues, then I would expect him to continue to score touchdowns.
On other parts of the field, the targets go to McConkey, but the deep shots and endzone looks have been going to Quentin and he's been making plays. A smart coach might consider giving him more targets of that nature.
I like players who score touchdowns!!
You: Yes it is
Me: No it's not
You: I think his TD rate will come down to 0.6 TD's per game.
It seems we agree that he is current performance is not sustainable.
ilianawindfae
Footballguy
Me: His TD rate of 1 TD per game is not sustainable
I think he will be a guy who can score 0.6 touchdowns per game. That's to say he will score touchdowns in 60% of the games he plays in.
That gets him around 10-12TD. In which case, he will inevitably score touchdowns in back to back games at some point and even have games where he scores multiple touchdowns.
I don't think the target rate is a fluke on account of his usage is to get targets in the endzone. They will continue to target him in the endzone because it's working.
Similar to Alexander Mattison. He has 7 carries the last two weeks and 2 TD. Why? Because he gets goalline carries, so it's not flukey when he scores in back-to-back weeks because he is featured in the redzone the same way the Chargers feature Johnston in the redzone.
Again, if this was a shorter player, sure, but it would seem to me that the Chargers gameplan is to have Johnston lead the team in endzone / redzone targets and if that continues, then I would expect him to continue to score touchdowns.
On other parts of the field, the targets go to McConkey, but the deep shots and endzone looks have been going to Quentin and he's been making plays. A smart coach might consider giving him more targets of that nature.
I like players who score touchdowns!!
You: Yes it is
Me: No it's not
You: I think his TD rate will come down to 0.6 TD's per game.
It seems we agree that he is current performance is not sustainable.
When did I ever say he is going to score 1TD per game? You said it was flukey. All I indicated is that I didn't think it was a fluke and that I'm not surprised that the 6 ft 3 first round WR is catching a lot of touchdowns. That's his usage and archetype. They drafted him to lead their team in receiving touchdowns and replace Keenan Allen.
The same way I'm not surprised when James Cook scores long touchdown runs, his usage and archetype suggest that's exactly what we should expect.
If you're arguing he's not going to score 17 TD, then I agree with you, lol, but that's not the conversation I was trying to have.
jm192
Footballguy
But you're arguing with something I'm not saying.Me: His TD rate of 1 TD per game is not sustainable
I think he will be a guy who can score 0.6 touchdowns per game. That's to say he will score touchdowns in 60% of the games he plays in.
That gets him around 10-12TD. In which case, he will inevitably score touchdowns in back to back games at some point and even have games where he scores multiple touchdowns.
I don't think the target rate is a fluke on account of his usage is to get targets in the endzone. They will continue to target him in the endzone because it's working.
Similar to Alexander Mattison. He has 7 carries the last two weeks and 2 TD. Why? Because he gets goalline carries, so it's not flukey when he scores in back-to-back weeks because he is featured in the redzone the same way the Chargers feature Johnston in the redzone.
Again, if this was a shorter player, sure, but it would seem to me that the Chargers gameplan is to have Johnston lead the team in endzone / redzone targets and if that continues, then I would expect him to continue to score touchdowns.
On other parts of the field, the targets go to McConkey, but the deep shots and endzone looks have been going to Quentin and he's been making plays. A smart coach might consider giving him more targets of that nature.
I like players who score touchdowns!!
You: Yes it is
Me: No it's not
You: I think his TD rate will come down to 0.6 TD's per game.
It seems we agree that he is current performance is not sustainable.
When did I ever say he is going to score 1TD per game? You said it was flukey. All I indicated that I'm not surprised that the 6 ft 3 first round WR is catching a lot of touchdowns. That's his usage and archetype.
The same way I'm not surprised when James Cook scores long touchdown runs, his usage and archetype suggest that's exactly what we should expect.
If you're arguing he's not going to score 17 TD, then I agree with you, lol, but that's not the conversation I was trying to have.
6'3 guys catch TD's. Yes sir. No doubt. We agree. You seem to be arguing with this point of it. But make no mistake, I agree with you.
I said his current production is fluky and not sustainable. And you're even posting saying those numbers will come down.
6'3 guys don't catch 1 TD per game. We seem to agree.
6'3 guys don't catch 1 TD every 3 touches. We seem to agree.
So I'm NOT saying that he can't catch more touchdowns. I am saying he won't catch a touchdown every game and he won't maintain this unholy TD rate.
For those reasons, I would sell high (or at least shop him) while he's at these numbers that don't seem sustainable.
When he goes a couple of games without a TD, the shine will be back off the diamond.
ilianawindfae
Footballguy
But you're arguing with something I'm not saying.Me: His TD rate of 1 TD per game is not sustainable
I think he will be a guy who can score 0.6 touchdowns per game. That's to say he will score touchdowns in 60% of the games he plays in.
That gets him around 10-12TD. In which case, he will inevitably score touchdowns in back to back games at some point and even have games where he scores multiple touchdowns.
I don't think the target rate is a fluke on account of his usage is to get targets in the endzone. They will continue to target him in the endzone because it's working.
Similar to Alexander Mattison. He has 7 carries the last two weeks and 2 TD. Why? Because he gets goalline carries, so it's not flukey when he scores in back-to-back weeks because he is featured in the redzone the same way the Chargers feature Johnston in the redzone.
Again, if this was a shorter player, sure, but it would seem to me that the Chargers gameplan is to have Johnston lead the team in endzone / redzone targets and if that continues, then I would expect him to continue to score touchdowns.
On other parts of the field, the targets go to McConkey, but the deep shots and endzone looks have been going to Quentin and he's been making plays. A smart coach might consider giving him more targets of that nature.
I like players who score touchdowns!!
You: Yes it is
Me: No it's not
You: I think his TD rate will come down to 0.6 TD's per game.
It seems we agree that he is current performance is not sustainable.
When did I ever say he is going to score 1TD per game? You said it was flukey. All I indicated that I'm not surprised that the 6 ft 3 first round WR is catching a lot of touchdowns. That's his usage and archetype.
The same way I'm not surprised when James Cook scores long touchdown runs, his usage and archetype suggest that's exactly what we should expect.
If you're arguing he's not going to score 17 TD, then I agree with you, lol, but that's not the conversation I was trying to have.
6'3 guys catch TD's. Yes sir. No doubt. We agree. You seem to be arguing with this point of it. But make no mistake, I agree with you.
I said his current production is fluky and not sustainable. And you're even posting saying those numbers will come down.
6'3 guys don't catch 1 TD per game. We seem to agree.
6'3 guys don't catch 1 TD every 3 touches. We seem to agree.
So I'm NOT saying that he can't catch more touchdowns. I am saying he won't catch a touchdown every game and he won't maintain this unholy TD rate.
For those reasons, I would sell high (or at least shop him) while he's at these numbers that don't seem sustainable.
When he goes a couple of games without a TD, the shine will be back off the diamond.
I get what you're saying, but I don't think you're going to find anyone on these boards that thinks he's going to score 17TD, so that distinction doesn't really need to be made.
That's like assuming Andy Dalton would throw for 300 yards and 3TD every game. Probably not, but based on his usage I wouldn't be surprised if he did it again. I don't think him doing it was a fluke.
What distinction are you trying to make though? Only 7 players scored 10 or more receiving touchdowns last year and only 5 hit that mark in the year before. He has 14 games to get 7 more.
Why would I want to trade a player with upside to reach a mark that only 5-7 players reach a year? He doesn't need to score 17TD to still score more touchdowns than 90% of his competition.
You might want to sell high on a 2nd year first round breakout WR who has the potential to score 10+ touchdowns, but that's not my management style.
I like players who score touchdowns and currently he's tied for the most in the NFL.
Even 10TD would have tied for the 5th most receiving TD last season. We'll have to agree to disagree, but I don't even know who I'd want to trade him for, he's looked great.
800 to 900 yards with 10-12TD is in reach, imo, and I don't think you'll be able to trade him for anyone who provides that kind of upside. We can review at mid-season if you'd like.
You can believe he is not a fluke AND not keep up the pace. It isn't one or the other.
Agree 100%But you're arguing with something I'm not saying.Me: His TD rate of 1 TD per game is not sustainable
I think he will be a guy who can score 0.6 touchdowns per game. That's to say he will score touchdowns in 60% of the games he plays in.
That gets him around 10-12TD. In which case, he will inevitably score touchdowns in back to back games at some point and even have games where he scores multiple touchdowns.
I don't think the target rate is a fluke on account of his usage is to get targets in the endzone. They will continue to target him in the endzone because it's working.
Similar to Alexander Mattison. He has 7 carries the last two weeks and 2 TD. Why? Because he gets goalline carries, so it's not flukey when he scores in back-to-back weeks because he is featured in the redzone the same way the Chargers feature Johnston in the redzone.
Again, if this was a shorter player, sure, but it would seem to me that the Chargers gameplan is to have Johnston lead the team in endzone / redzone targets and if that continues, then I would expect him to continue to score touchdowns.
On other parts of the field, the targets go to McConkey, but the deep shots and endzone looks have been going to Quentin and he's been making plays. A smart coach might consider giving him more targets of that nature.
I like players who score touchdowns!!
You: Yes it is
Me: No it's not
You: I think his TD rate will come down to 0.6 TD's per game.
It seems we agree that he is current performance is not sustainable.
When did I ever say he is going to score 1TD per game? You said it was flukey. All I indicated that I'm not surprised that the 6 ft 3 first round WR is catching a lot of touchdowns. That's his usage and archetype.
The same way I'm not surprised when James Cook scores long touchdown runs, his usage and archetype suggest that's exactly what we should expect.
If you're arguing he's not going to score 17 TD, then I agree with you, lol, but that's not the conversation I was trying to have.
6'3 guys catch TD's. Yes sir. No doubt. We agree. You seem to be arguing with this point of it. But make no mistake, I agree with you.
I said his current production is fluky and not sustainable. And you're even posting saying those numbers will come down.
6'3 guys don't catch 1 TD per game. We seem to agree.
6'3 guys don't catch 1 TD every 3 touches. We seem to agree.
So I'm NOT saying that he can't catch more touchdowns. I am saying he won't catch a touchdown every game and he won't maintain this unholy TD rate.
For those reasons, I would sell high (or at least shop him) while he's at these numbers that don't seem sustainable.
When he goes a couple of games without a TD, the shine will be back off the diamond.
I get what you're saying, but I don't think you're going to find anyone on these boards that thinks he's going to score 17TD, so that distinction doesn't really need to be made.
That's like assuming Andy Dalton would throw for 300 yards and 3TD every game. Probably not, but based on his usage I wouldn't be surprised if he did it again. I don't think him doing it was a fluke.
What distinction are you trying to make though? Only 7 players scored 10 or more receiving touchdowns last year and only 5 hit that mark in the year before. He has 14 games to get 7 more.
Why would I want to trade a player with upside to reach a mark that only 5-7 players reach a year? He doesn't need to score 17TD to still score more touchdowns than 90% of his competition.
You might want to sell high on a 2nd year first round breakout WR who has the potential to score 10+ touchdowns, but that's not my management style.
I like players who score touchdowns and currently he's tied for the most in the NFL.
Even 10TD would have tied for the 5th most receiving TD last season. We'll have to agree to disagree, but I don't even know who I'd want to trade him for, he's looked great.
800 to 900 yards with 10-12TD is in reach, imo, and I don't think you'll be able to trade him for anyone who provides that kind of upside. We can review at mid-season if you'd like.
The potential is there for him to be the #1 WR with a great QB and a running game to support drives and scoring opportunites.
Double digit TD's are absolutely possible.
jm192
Footballguy
My original post/point was that the TD production is a fluke. And I stand by that.
If we can agree the TD pace is a fluke, I'm not sure what is really left. 3 catches for 43 yards per game isn't exactly something to write home about.
Based on what we've seen so far--if he doesn't score, he's not a very good play. Maybe the volume increases, but so far the off-season narrative of Harbaugh wants to run it as much as possible seems to be ringing true.
jm192
Footballguy
My management style is to chase volume. My management style is to identify guys who have overperformed based on unsustainable factors and try to sell. 20 years in, and I still believe TD's are the hardest thing to predict. But volume, touches, yards, etc. are much more reliable. So far, QJ doesn't win in those areas. So I worry that if/when the TD's regress, he's going to be frustrating to own.But you're arguing with something I'm not saying.Me: His TD rate of 1 TD per game is not sustainable
I think he will be a guy who can score 0.6 touchdowns per game. That's to say he will score touchdowns in 60% of the games he plays in.
That gets him around 10-12TD. In which case, he will inevitably score touchdowns in back to back games at some point and even have games where he scores multiple touchdowns.
I don't think the target rate is a fluke on account of his usage is to get targets in the endzone. They will continue to target him in the endzone because it's working.
Similar to Alexander Mattison. He has 7 carries the last two weeks and 2 TD. Why? Because he gets goalline carries, so it's not flukey when he scores in back-to-back weeks because he is featured in the redzone the same way the Chargers feature Johnston in the redzone.
Again, if this was a shorter player, sure, but it would seem to me that the Chargers gameplan is to have Johnston lead the team in endzone / redzone targets and if that continues, then I would expect him to continue to score touchdowns.
On other parts of the field, the targets go to McConkey, but the deep shots and endzone looks have been going to Quentin and he's been making plays. A smart coach might consider giving him more targets of that nature.
I like players who score touchdowns!!
You: Yes it is
Me: No it's not
You: I think his TD rate will come down to 0.6 TD's per game.
It seems we agree that he is current performance is not sustainable.
When did I ever say he is going to score 1TD per game? You said it was flukey. All I indicated that I'm not surprised that the 6 ft 3 first round WR is catching a lot of touchdowns. That's his usage and archetype.
The same way I'm not surprised when James Cook scores long touchdown runs, his usage and archetype suggest that's exactly what we should expect.
If you're arguing he's not going to score 17 TD, then I agree with you, lol, but that's not the conversation I was trying to have.
6'3 guys catch TD's. Yes sir. No doubt. We agree. You seem to be arguing with this point of it. But make no mistake, I agree with you.
I said his current production is fluky and not sustainable. And you're even posting saying those numbers will come down.
6'3 guys don't catch 1 TD per game. We seem to agree.
6'3 guys don't catch 1 TD every 3 touches. We seem to agree.
So I'm NOT saying that he can't catch more touchdowns. I am saying he won't catch a touchdown every game and he won't maintain this unholy TD rate.
For those reasons, I would sell high (or at least shop him) while he's at these numbers that don't seem sustainable.
When he goes a couple of games without a TD, the shine will be back off the diamond.
I get what you're saying, but I don't think you're going to find anyone on these boards that thinks he's going to score 17TD, so that distinction doesn't really need to be made.
That's like assuming Andy Dalton would throw for 300 yards and 3TD every game. Probably not, but based on his usage I wouldn't be surprised if he did it again. I don't think him doing it was a fluke.
What distinction are you trying to make though? Only 7 players scored 10 or more receiving touchdowns last year and only 5 hit that mark in the year before. He has 14 games to get 7 more.
Why would I want to trade a player with upside to reach a mark that only 5-7 players reach a year? He doesn't need to score 17TD to still score more touchdowns than 90% of his competition.
You might want to sell high on a 2nd year first round breakout WR who has the potential to score 10+ touchdowns, but that's not my management style.
I like players who score touchdowns and currently he's tied for the most in the NFL.
Even 10TD would have tied for the 5th most receiving TD last season. We'll have to agree to disagree, but I don't even know who I'd want to trade him for, he's looked great.
800 to 900 yards with 10-12TD is in reach, imo, and I don't think you'll be able to trade him for anyone who provides that kind of upside. We can review at mid-season if you'd like.
ATB
Footballguy
I think the key is to identify the way the offense wants to operate. They want to run the ball. But they won't have that luxury against most teams, imo. Thus far, they've played the Raiders, Panthers, and Steelers. All teams we would have guessed would not be high-powered offenses before the season and haven't proven to be.My management style is to chase volume. My management style is to identify guys who have overperformed based on unsustainable factors and try to sell. 20 years in, and I still believe TD's are the hardest thing to predict. But volume, touches, yards, etc. are much more reliable. So far, QJ doesn't win in those areas. So I worry that if/when the TD's regress, he's going to be frustrating to own.But you're arguing with something I'm not saying.Me: His TD rate of 1 TD per game is not sustainable
I think he will be a guy who can score 0.6 touchdowns per game. That's to say he will score touchdowns in 60% of the games he plays in.
That gets him around 10-12TD. In which case, he will inevitably score touchdowns in back to back games at some point and even have games where he scores multiple touchdowns.
I don't think the target rate is a fluke on account of his usage is to get targets in the endzone. They will continue to target him in the endzone because it's working.
Similar to Alexander Mattison. He has 7 carries the last two weeks and 2 TD. Why? Because he gets goalline carries, so it's not flukey when he scores in back-to-back weeks because he is featured in the redzone the same way the Chargers feature Johnston in the redzone.
Again, if this was a shorter player, sure, but it would seem to me that the Chargers gameplan is to have Johnston lead the team in endzone / redzone targets and if that continues, then I would expect him to continue to score touchdowns.
On other parts of the field, the targets go to McConkey, but the deep shots and endzone looks have been going to Quentin and he's been making plays. A smart coach might consider giving him more targets of that nature.
I like players who score touchdowns!!
You: Yes it is
Me: No it's not
You: I think his TD rate will come down to 0.6 TD's per game.
It seems we agree that he is current performance is not sustainable.
When did I ever say he is going to score 1TD per game? You said it was flukey. All I indicated that I'm not surprised that the 6 ft 3 first round WR is catching a lot of touchdowns. That's his usage and archetype.
The same way I'm not surprised when James Cook scores long touchdown runs, his usage and archetype suggest that's exactly what we should expect.
If you're arguing he's not going to score 17 TD, then I agree with you, lol, but that's not the conversation I was trying to have.
6'3 guys catch TD's. Yes sir. No doubt. We agree. You seem to be arguing with this point of it. But make no mistake, I agree with you.
I said his current production is fluky and not sustainable. And you're even posting saying those numbers will come down.
6'3 guys don't catch 1 TD per game. We seem to agree.
6'3 guys don't catch 1 TD every 3 touches. We seem to agree.
So I'm NOT saying that he can't catch more touchdowns. I am saying he won't catch a touchdown every game and he won't maintain this unholy TD rate.
For those reasons, I would sell high (or at least shop him) while he's at these numbers that don't seem sustainable.
When he goes a couple of games without a TD, the shine will be back off the diamond.
I get what you're saying, but I don't think you're going to find anyone on these boards that thinks he's going to score 17TD, so that distinction doesn't really need to be made.
That's like assuming Andy Dalton would throw for 300 yards and 3TD every game. Probably not, but based on his usage I wouldn't be surprised if he did it again. I don't think him doing it was a fluke.
What distinction are you trying to make though? Only 7 players scored 10 or more receiving touchdowns last year and only 5 hit that mark in the year before. He has 14 games to get 7 more.
Why would I want to trade a player with upside to reach a mark that only 5-7 players reach a year? He doesn't need to score 17TD to still score more touchdowns than 90% of his competition.
You might want to sell high on a 2nd year first round breakout WR who has the potential to score 10+ touchdowns, but that's not my management style.
I like players who score touchdowns and currently he's tied for the most in the NFL.
Even 10TD would have tied for the 5th most receiving TD last season. We'll have to agree to disagree, but I don't even know who I'd want to trade him for, he's looked great.
800 to 900 yards with 10-12TD is in reach, imo, and I don't think you'll be able to trade him for anyone who provides that kind of upside. We can review at mid-season if you'd like.
Next up, they have the Chiefs. Gotta guess they're forced to throw in that one.
Then after the BYE, they have Broncos... probably won't have to throw a ton to be competitive.
Then the Cards, gotta throw most likely.
Saints, gotta throw.
Browns... who knows? Do they figure out their offense by then? Do they move away from Watson? Either way, really good defense probably means Chargers can't run it all day. Throw.
Titans... hard to run on. Gotta throw.
Bengals. Gotta throw it.
Ravens. Gotta throw it.
Falcons. Gotta throw it.
Chiefs again. Gotta throw.
Buccaneers. Gotta throw most likely.
Broncos. Meh.
Patriots. Who knows by then? Probably not a big passing day.
All that to say... I think he may be matchup dependent, but he's still the guy they'll look for in the RZ when they need to. Good guy to own on the right weeks.
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dipandglide
Footballguy
Guys who don't get volume have low floors. QJ won't be different, but free is free. He's been paying off in my best ball and start 11+ leagues.
dipandglide
Footballguy
There are few volume hogs. You keep talking about volume as if the Charges have been full strength. Herbert has been injured for the majority of the season. It's not wise to write off a guy producing on low volume when the high volume conditions you seek haven't been presented yet. QJ and McConkey offer a lot of upside if the volume comes.My management style is to chase volume. My management style is to identify guys who have overperformed based on unsustainable factors and try to sell. 20 years in, and I still believe TD's are the hardest thing to predict. But volume, touches, yards, etc. are much more reliable. So far, QJ doesn't win in those areas. So I worry that if/when the TD's regress, he's going to be frustrating to own.But you're arguing with something I'm not saying.Me: His TD rate of 1 TD per game is not sustainable
I think he will be a guy who can score 0.6 touchdowns per game. That's to say he will score touchdowns in 60% of the games he plays in.
That gets him around 10-12TD. In which case, he will inevitably score touchdowns in back to back games at some point and even have games where he scores multiple touchdowns.
I don't think the target rate is a fluke on account of his usage is to get targets in the endzone. They will continue to target him in the endzone because it's working.
Similar to Alexander Mattison. He has 7 carries the last two weeks and 2 TD. Why? Because he gets goalline carries, so it's not flukey when he scores in back-to-back weeks because he is featured in the redzone the same way the Chargers feature Johnston in the redzone.
Again, if this was a shorter player, sure, but it would seem to me that the Chargers gameplan is to have Johnston lead the team in endzone / redzone targets and if that continues, then I would expect him to continue to score touchdowns.
On other parts of the field, the targets go to McConkey, but the deep shots and endzone looks have been going to Quentin and he's been making plays. A smart coach might consider giving him more targets of that nature.
I like players who score touchdowns!!
You: Yes it is
Me: No it's not
You: I think his TD rate will come down to 0.6 TD's per game.
It seems we agree that he is current performance is not sustainable.
When did I ever say he is going to score 1TD per game? You said it was flukey. All I indicated that I'm not surprised that the 6 ft 3 first round WR is catching a lot of touchdowns. That's his usage and archetype.
The same way I'm not surprised when James Cook scores long touchdown runs, his usage and archetype suggest that's exactly what we should expect.
If you're arguing he's not going to score 17 TD, then I agree with you, lol, but that's not the conversation I was trying to have.
6'3 guys catch TD's. Yes sir. No doubt. We agree. You seem to be arguing with this point of it. But make no mistake, I agree with you.
I said his current production is fluky and not sustainable. And you're even posting saying those numbers will come down.
6'3 guys don't catch 1 TD per game. We seem to agree.
6'3 guys don't catch 1 TD every 3 touches. We seem to agree.
So I'm NOT saying that he can't catch more touchdowns. I am saying he won't catch a touchdown every game and he won't maintain this unholy TD rate.
For those reasons, I would sell high (or at least shop him) while he's at these numbers that don't seem sustainable.
When he goes a couple of games without a TD, the shine will be back off the diamond.
I get what you're saying, but I don't think you're going to find anyone on these boards that thinks he's going to score 17TD, so that distinction doesn't really need to be made.
That's like assuming Andy Dalton would throw for 300 yards and 3TD every game. Probably not, but based on his usage I wouldn't be surprised if he did it again. I don't think him doing it was a fluke.
What distinction are you trying to make though? Only 7 players scored 10 or more receiving touchdowns last year and only 5 hit that mark in the year before. He has 14 games to get 7 more.
Why would I want to trade a player with upside to reach a mark that only 5-7 players reach a year? He doesn't need to score 17TD to still score more touchdowns than 90% of his competition.
You might want to sell high on a 2nd year first round breakout WR who has the potential to score 10+ touchdowns, but that's not my management style.
I like players who score touchdowns and currently he's tied for the most in the NFL.
Even 10TD would have tied for the 5th most receiving TD last season. We'll have to agree to disagree, but I don't even know who I'd want to trade him for, he's looked great.
800 to 900 yards with 10-12TD is in reach, imo, and I don't think you'll be able to trade him for anyone who provides that kind of upside. We can review at mid-season if you'd like.
QJ was being drafted for nothing in redraft and sold as a throw-in in dynasty trades. Free is free and allows you more room to be wrong. I'll take a swing on these types ALL DAY.
jm192
Footballguy
There’s a canyon between volume hogs and 4.33 targets per game.There are few volume hogs. You keep talking about volume as if the Charges have been full strength. Herbert has been injured for the majority of the season. It's not wise to write off a guy producing on low volume when the high volume conditions you seek haven't been presented yet. QJ and McConkey offer a lot of upside if the volume comes.My management style is to chase volume. My management style is to identify guys who have overperformed based on unsustainable factors and try to sell. 20 years in, and I still believe TD's are the hardest thing to predict. But volume, touches, yards, etc. are much more reliable. So far, QJ doesn't win in those areas. So I worry that if/when the TD's regress, he's going to be frustrating to own.But you're arguing with something I'm not saying.Me: His TD rate of 1 TD per game is not sustainable
I think he will be a guy who can score 0.6 touchdowns per game. That's to say he will score touchdowns in 60% of the games he plays in.
That gets him around 10-12TD. In which case, he will inevitably score touchdowns in back to back games at some point and even have games where he scores multiple touchdowns.
I don't think the target rate is a fluke on account of his usage is to get targets in the endzone. They will continue to target him in the endzone because it's working.
Similar to Alexander Mattison. He has 7 carries the last two weeks and 2 TD. Why? Because he gets goalline carries, so it's not flukey when he scores in back-to-back weeks because he is featured in the redzone the same way the Chargers feature Johnston in the redzone.
Again, if this was a shorter player, sure, but it would seem to me that the Chargers gameplan is to have Johnston lead the team in endzone / redzone targets and if that continues, then I would expect him to continue to score touchdowns.
On other parts of the field, the targets go to McConkey, but the deep shots and endzone looks have been going to Quentin and he's been making plays. A smart coach might consider giving him more targets of that nature.
I like players who score touchdowns!!
You: Yes it is
Me: No it's not
You: I think his TD rate will come down to 0.6 TD's per game.
It seems we agree that he is current performance is not sustainable.
When did I ever say he is going to score 1TD per game? You said it was flukey. All I indicated that I'm not surprised that the 6 ft 3 first round WR is catching a lot of touchdowns. That's his usage and archetype.
The same way I'm not surprised when James Cook scores long touchdown runs, his usage and archetype suggest that's exactly what we should expect.
If you're arguing he's not going to score 17 TD, then I agree with you, lol, but that's not the conversation I was trying to have.
6'3 guys catch TD's. Yes sir. No doubt. We agree. You seem to be arguing with this point of it. But make no mistake, I agree with you.
I said his current production is fluky and not sustainable. And you're even posting saying those numbers will come down.
6'3 guys don't catch 1 TD per game. We seem to agree.
6'3 guys don't catch 1 TD every 3 touches. We seem to agree.
So I'm NOT saying that he can't catch more touchdowns. I am saying he won't catch a touchdown every game and he won't maintain this unholy TD rate.
For those reasons, I would sell high (or at least shop him) while he's at these numbers that don't seem sustainable.
When he goes a couple of games without a TD, the shine will be back off the diamond.
I get what you're saying, but I don't think you're going to find anyone on these boards that thinks he's going to score 17TD, so that distinction doesn't really need to be made.
That's like assuming Andy Dalton would throw for 300 yards and 3TD every game. Probably not, but based on his usage I wouldn't be surprised if he did it again. I don't think him doing it was a fluke.
What distinction are you trying to make though? Only 7 players scored 10 or more receiving touchdowns last year and only 5 hit that mark in the year before. He has 14 games to get 7 more.
Why would I want to trade a player with upside to reach a mark that only 5-7 players reach a year? He doesn't need to score 17TD to still score more touchdowns than 90% of his competition.
You might want to sell high on a 2nd year first round breakout WR who has the potential to score 10+ touchdowns, but that's not my management style.
I like players who score touchdowns and currently he's tied for the most in the NFL.
Even 10TD would have tied for the 5th most receiving TD last season. We'll have to agree to disagree, but I don't even know who I'd want to trade him for, he's looked great.
800 to 900 yards with 10-12TD is in reach, imo, and I don't think you'll be able to trade him for anyone who provides that kind of upside. We can review at mid-season if you'd like.
QJ was being drafted for nothing in redraft and sold as a throw-in in dynasty trades. Free is free and allows you more room to be wrong. I'll take a swing on these types ALL DAY.
We’re 3 games in and haven’t seen high passing volume. All off-season everyone said this will be a low volume passing offense.
Now you’re telling me “just wait, it’s coming”???
Tau837
Footballguy
"Sell high"... for what? What do you think a seller gets for him today, given everything you have posted as your perspective on him... as if the other owners don't know these things? IMO it is very likely a better risk/reward bet in redraft to keep him than to trade him for what I expect you would be able to get in trade. Even moreso in dynasty.
Tau837
Footballguy
Exactly.
The Chargers are averaging 22.0 passing attempts per game. The team that was last in the league in passing attempts last season averaged 28.9. Harbaugh's 49ers teams averaged 28.0 passing attempts per regular season game in his 4 seasons as head coach... with Smith and Kaepernick at QB, a far cry from Herbert.
It is also worth noting that Herbert was injured in training camp and missed a good amount of practice time, so it was reasonable to believe he could get off to a slow start.
A TD per game is a fluke. But double digits is not out of the question. Especially when you consider where you drafted him, if at all.
Nobody is comparing him to JJ, Chase or Lamb. Those guys demand targets. That's what you seem to be comparing him to.
Nobody expects him to be their #1 WR. But you won't take a guy who could end up with 75 catches, 1,000 yards/- and 10 TD's as your #3??
Yeah, pretty much. Statistics show they will have to pass more as the season goes on.There’s a canyon between volume hogs and 4.33 targets per game.There are few volume hogs. You keep talking about volume as if the Charges have been full strength. Herbert has been injured for the majority of the season. It's not wise to write off a guy producing on low volume when the high volume conditions you seek haven't been presented yet. QJ and McConkey offer a lot of upside if the volume comes.My management style is to chase volume. My management style is to identify guys who have overperformed based on unsustainable factors and try to sell. 20 years in, and I still believe TD's are the hardest thing to predict. But volume, touches, yards, etc. are much more reliable. So far, QJ doesn't win in those areas. So I worry that if/when the TD's regress, he's going to be frustrating to own.But you're arguing with something I'm not saying.Me: His TD rate of 1 TD per game is not sustainable
I think he will be a guy who can score 0.6 touchdowns per game. That's to say he will score touchdowns in 60% of the games he plays in.
That gets him around 10-12TD. In which case, he will inevitably score touchdowns in back to back games at some point and even have games where he scores multiple touchdowns.
I don't think the target rate is a fluke on account of his usage is to get targets in the endzone. They will continue to target him in the endzone because it's working.
Similar to Alexander Mattison. He has 7 carries the last two weeks and 2 TD. Why? Because he gets goalline carries, so it's not flukey when he scores in back-to-back weeks because he is featured in the redzone the same way the Chargers feature Johnston in the redzone.
Again, if this was a shorter player, sure, but it would seem to me that the Chargers gameplan is to have Johnston lead the team in endzone / redzone targets and if that continues, then I would expect him to continue to score touchdowns.
On other parts of the field, the targets go to McConkey, but the deep shots and endzone looks have been going to Quentin and he's been making plays. A smart coach might consider giving him more targets of that nature.
I like players who score touchdowns!!
You: Yes it is
Me: No it's not
You: I think his TD rate will come down to 0.6 TD's per game.
It seems we agree that he is current performance is not sustainable.
When did I ever say he is going to score 1TD per game? You said it was flukey. All I indicated that I'm not surprised that the 6 ft 3 first round WR is catching a lot of touchdowns. That's his usage and archetype.
The same way I'm not surprised when James Cook scores long touchdown runs, his usage and archetype suggest that's exactly what we should expect.
If you're arguing he's not going to score 17 TD, then I agree with you, lol, but that's not the conversation I was trying to have.
6'3 guys catch TD's. Yes sir. No doubt. We agree. You seem to be arguing with this point of it. But make no mistake, I agree with you.
I said his current production is fluky and not sustainable. And you're even posting saying those numbers will come down.
6'3 guys don't catch 1 TD per game. We seem to agree.
6'3 guys don't catch 1 TD every 3 touches. We seem to agree.
So I'm NOT saying that he can't catch more touchdowns. I am saying he won't catch a touchdown every game and he won't maintain this unholy TD rate.
For those reasons, I would sell high (or at least shop him) while he's at these numbers that don't seem sustainable.
When he goes a couple of games without a TD, the shine will be back off the diamond.
I get what you're saying, but I don't think you're going to find anyone on these boards that thinks he's going to score 17TD, so that distinction doesn't really need to be made.
That's like assuming Andy Dalton would throw for 300 yards and 3TD every game. Probably not, but based on his usage I wouldn't be surprised if he did it again. I don't think him doing it was a fluke.
What distinction are you trying to make though? Only 7 players scored 10 or more receiving touchdowns last year and only 5 hit that mark in the year before. He has 14 games to get 7 more.
Why would I want to trade a player with upside to reach a mark that only 5-7 players reach a year? He doesn't need to score 17TD to still score more touchdowns than 90% of his competition.
You might want to sell high on a 2nd year first round breakout WR who has the potential to score 10+ touchdowns, but that's not my management style.
I like players who score touchdowns and currently he's tied for the most in the NFL.
Even 10TD would have tied for the 5th most receiving TD last season. We'll have to agree to disagree, but I don't even know who I'd want to trade him for, he's looked great.
800 to 900 yards with 10-12TD is in reach, imo, and I don't think you'll be able to trade him for anyone who provides that kind of upside. We can review at mid-season if you'd like.
QJ was being drafted for nothing in redraft and sold as a throw-in in dynasty trades. Free is free and allows you more room to be wrong. I'll take a swing on these types ALL DAY.
We’re 3 games in and haven’t seen high passing volume. All off-season everyone said this will be a low volume passing offense.
Now you’re telling me “just wait, it’s coming”???
zamboni
Footballguy
Agree with this. No one is expecting him to become a WR1/2, but I think last year is (understandably) stuck in a lot of people's minds and are discounting the possibility that this is a 1st round pick who may just be finally getting it a year later.
TampaMike19
Footballguy
Not only this but he has that week winning ceiling from a flex player that we all could use.
Again, it's about usage. As long as the guy is used creatively he will deliver for fantasy. He's used in the Red zone...He will average .6 TD's a game in this manner. Sutton had 10 last year.
A lot of times we get caught up in some of the traditional WR metrics but this guy is being used like a WR/hybrid athlete in the Deebo and C Patt mold and has room to grow as a receiver. There is no one like him on the Chargers roster.
Correct. #1 WR's on ANY team have value. Well, except if Bryce Young is the QB.
jm192
Footballguy
Again, I keep seeing the Deebo/hybrid thing thrown out. He doesn't have a single rushing attempt. When I think of "the Deebo Hybrid," I think of a guy that is also getting rushing attempts.
If you're telling me that his volume doesn't matter because "He's a hybrid like Deebo," then I would think the volume is being made up for with rushing attempts. It is not.
TheDirtyWord
Footballguy
Why is THIS player so polarizing?
ATB
Footballguy
This has come to mean a guy with great YAC ability who isn't necessarily a "win contested catches on go-routes" kinda guy. Not a WR/RB hybrid. Just a get-the-ball-in-his-hands-and-see-what-he-can-make-happen guy.
Because he was sooooo bad last year.
massraider
Footballguy
Because he was one of those guys that wasn't polarizing before the draft. Every content creator that fantasy owners pay attention to were crapping all over him. Honestly, it was out and out mean.
Go back to the first few pages, and you can see why he is NOW polarizing, because a bunch of people might be wrong. And I am not talking about the posters, I am talking about the people they got their opinion from. I mean, it's not like everyone in the first 10 pages watched a bunch of TCU. We all read other people, and tag along.
Matt Harmon is out here whispering that QJ is playing well. Why? Because he is making a joke of the fact that the fantasy world decided before the season last year he was trash, then during a lost season with a garbage coach (no one gave QJ a pass, by the way) it was confirmed.
Now, when QJ has the audacity to play well, at the advanced age of 22 years old we get posts about how he won't score 17 TDs a season. HAHA, suck on that QJ!!!!!, You ain't scoring a TD a game, punk!!
Try and imagine what the Ladd McConkey thread would look like if he had three TDs in three games. Can you picture that in your mind? OK, now while imagining that, realize that QJ and Ladd are the same age, both born in 2001.
Not sure what the debate is here.
I know it's a low volume pass offense, but you have J. Herbert throwing the ball, a non stupid HC, and what looks to be a #1 WR with a great pedigree.
I could care less about his past. At low cost, he's currently acting as my WR5 with upside for WR2/3 later in the year.
Not every player is a league winner.
I know it's a low volume pass offense, but you have J. Herbert throwing the ball, a non stupid HC, and what looks to be a #1 WR with a great pedigree.
I could care less about his past. At low cost, he's currently acting as my WR5 with upside for WR2/3 later in the year.
Not every player is a league winner.
The saying is "I couldn't care less"
Gee, thanks for this post. Super informative.
Well you learned something, right?
jm192
Footballguy
Not quite.
My main point was his volume is nothing and he'll struggle to maintain production with the volume we've seen. His current value is inflated due to the 3 TD's. I think the smart play is to capitalize on that and send some offers.
It was never "LOL HE'S NOT GOOD ENOUGH TO SCORE 17 TD'S. It was simply, when the TD's go away, 3 catches for 43 yards isn't really helping you. I think he comps really well to Gabe Davis.
Gabe Davis at 22 years old caught 4 Touchdowns in a single game from Josh Allen. Everyone decided he's going to be the next big thing. There were people in this message board predicting double digit TD's. I remember some people talking like maybe he'll outscore Diggs.
He spent the next few years being a boom/bust TD dependent play. I guess I'd rather have that than Elijah Moore.
QJ may get you 10/12 TD's. He may get you 7. And THE VOLUME is not there to make up for the non-TD weeks.
For those reasons, I personally would try to sell high on QJ. But some people are the polar opposite of me "He's got 12 TD upside, are you kidding me?!" I don't see it happening, but by all means, keep him. I'm tired of arguing with people about low volume TD dependent players. Enjoy him.
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Is the beat a dead horse emoji still available?
We get it. You're worried about his volume. Go ahead and trade him then. Sheesh.
jm192
Footballguy
It's a message board.
I present my point. Someone responds with theirs. I respond to that.
Feel free to stop checking the thread if that bothers you. There's also an ignore button if my posting bothers you so badly.
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massraider
Footballguy
If the TD regression is obvious and inevitable to you, as it is to me, why is the possibility of regression resulting in more volume not even possible to you?
You may think Herbert will only throw the ball 20 times a game. But history says that he will throw it more than that.
And in terms of targtets, it is QJ, Ladd, and no one else that anyone is concerned about. I don't see how QJ gets less than 5 targets a game, and will probably average more.
jm192
Footballguy
FWIW
It's never been a declaration of "He can't succeed."
I said I would sell high because the volume is a concern. Maybe it does improve. Does it improve significantly? You said 5--that puts us at 85 on the year. That's Gabe Davis territory. Most people haven't been super comfortable putting Gabe into their lineups the last few years.
But we're 17.6% through the season. I think we have SOME idea of how much the Chargers want to pass the ball. Will they pass it more in some games? Of course. Will they have several games where they throw it 20-22 times per game like they have so far? I sure think so.
