WR Quentin Johnston, LAC (1 Viewer)

[Jail]

Maybe I just have Quentin-Johnston-owner-colored glasses, but I always like a guy who was considered an elite prospect coming into the NFL even if he has a bad year or two. I know I know, Laquon is on the phone to speak with me, and N'Keal is waiting on hold. But still.

He's a great prospect that still has issues with catching and tracking the ball at times that leads to inconsistencies. He improved a lot last year after a horrible year 1. Did he hit his ceiling last year? Maybe, but he also might keep improving. I don't own him myself but someone I'm keeping my eye on and may send an offer if it looks like he could be the #2 this year.

Anyone who's writing him off should have a very short leash on Marvin Harrison Jr next year, for instance. Johnston's catch percentage in his rookie season was better than Harrison's in his rookie season, and he increased that significantly in Johnston's second season. The point being, I doubt most people are remotely close to writing off Harrison. So why write off Johnston yet?

Not really a good comparison. MHJ is going to be the primary read on a lot of targets. QJ will be the primary read on a short number of plays on an offense that wants to run more. And he’s got a lot more competition for targets coming in.

But I agree that there is a world where he can put up similar numbers as last year . If Williams gets hurt and if Harris comes along slowly. Maybe he can. With Williams already on the injury list and Harris a hold out. Certainly possible

 

[eighsse2]

Maybe I just have Quentin-Johnston-owner-colored glasses, but I always like a guy who was considered an elite prospect coming into the NFL even if he has a bad year or two. I know I know, Laquon is on the phone to speak with me, and N'Keal is waiting on hold. But still.

He's a great prospect that still has issues with catching and tracking the ball at times that leads to inconsistencies. He improved a lot last year after a horrible year 1. Did he hit his ceiling last year? Maybe, but he also might keep improving. I don't own him myself but someone I'm keeping my eye on and may send an offer if it looks like he could be the #2 this year.

Anyone who's writing him off should have a very short leash on Marvin Harrison Jr next year, for instance. Johnston's catch percentage in his rookie season was better than Harrison's in his rookie season, and he increased that significantly in Johnston's second season. The point being, I doubt most people are remotely close to writing off Harrison. So why write off Johnston yet?

Not really a good comparison. MHJ is going to be the primary read on a lot of targets. QJ will be the primary read on a short number of plays on an offense that wants to run more. And he’s got a lot more competition for targets coming in.

But I agree that there is a world where he can put up similar numbers as last year . If Williams gets hurt and if Harris comes along slowly. Maybe he can. With Williams already on the injury list and Harris a hold out. Certainly possible

If we're talking 2025 only, yeah I agree. But long-term, opportunity windows open and close every year.

 

[Jail]

Maybe I just have Quentin-Johnston-owner-colored glasses, but I always like a guy who was considered an elite prospect coming into the NFL even if he has a bad year or two. I know I know, Laquon is on the phone to speak with me, and N'Keal is waiting on hold. But still.

He's a great prospect that still has issues with catching and tracking the ball at times that leads to inconsistencies. He improved a lot last year after a horrible year 1. Did he hit his ceiling last year? Maybe, but he also might keep improving. I don't own him myself but someone I'm keeping my eye on and may send an offer if it looks like he could be the #2 this year.

Anyone who's writing him off should have a very short leash on Marvin Harrison Jr next year, for instance. Johnston's catch percentage in his rookie season was better than Harrison's in his rookie season, and he increased that significantly in Johnston's second season. The point being, I doubt most people are remotely close to writing off Harrison. So why write off Johnston yet?

Not really a good comparison. MHJ is going to be the primary read on a lot of targets. QJ will be the primary read on a short number of plays on an offense that wants to run more. And he’s got a lot more competition for targets coming in.

But I agree that there is a world where he can put up similar numbers as last year . If Williams gets hurt and if Harris comes along slowly. Maybe he can. With Williams already on the injury list and Harris a hold out. Certainly possible

If we're talking 2025 only, yeah I agree. But long-term, opportunity windows open and close every year.

Yeah for sure. Anything is possible.

The LAC have a lot of needs, so it does give me pause that they used a third round pick on a WR. If they had confidence that QJ could improve I don’t think they would have done that.

 

[Tau837]

Maybe I just have Quentin-Johnston-owner-colored glasses, but I always like a guy who was considered an elite prospect coming into the NFL even if he has a bad year or two. I know I know, Laquon is on the phone to speak with me, and N'Keal is waiting on hold. But still.

He's a great prospect that still has issues with catching and tracking the ball at times that leads to inconsistencies. He improved a lot last year after a horrible year 1. Did he hit his ceiling last year? Maybe, but he also might keep improving. I don't own him myself but someone I'm keeping my eye on and may send an offer if it looks like he could be the #2 this year.

Anyone who's writing him off should have a very short leash on Marvin Harrison Jr next year, for instance. Johnston's catch percentage in his rookie season was better than Harrison's in his rookie season, and he increased that significantly in Johnston's second season. The point being, I doubt most people are remotely close to writing off Harrison. So why write off Johnston yet?

Not really a good comparison. MHJ is going to be the primary read on a lot of targets. QJ will be the primary read on a short number of plays on an offense that wants to run more. And he’s got a lot more competition for targets coming in.

But I agree that there is a world where he can put up similar numbers as last year . If Williams gets hurt and if Harris comes along slowly. Maybe he can. With Williams already on the injury list and Harris a hold out. Certainly possible

If we're talking 2025 only, yeah I agree. But long-term, opportunity windows open and close every year.

Yeah for sure. Anything is possible.

The LAC have a lot of needs, so it does give me pause that they used a third round pick on a WR. If they had confidence that QJ could improve I don’t think they would have done that.

Even more to your point, they used 2nd and 5th round picks on WR.

 

[Chaka]

Mike Williams is always hurt

This is simply not true.

• 2017 - played 10 of 16 possible games -- opened the season on PUP due to herniated disk in his back; despite missing most of training cap due to the injury, he played in 10 of 11 games starting in week 6
• 2018 - played 18 of 18 possible games
• 2019 - played 15 of 16 possible games
• 2020 - played 15 of 16 possible games
• 2021 - played 16 of 17 possible games
• 2022 - played 13 of 18 possible games
• 2023 - played 3 of 17 possible games -- tore ACL in week 3
• 2024 - played 19 of 19 possible games

Starting in 2018, other than the games missed to his 2023 ACL injury, he played in 99 of 107 games over 7 seasons. If you think this injury history is predictive of future injury, I will agree to disagree with you.

He started 67 of those games. They both have a catch rate around 60%.
Williams did have 2 good years at over 1k yards. Williams was a maddening week to week player as a what the heck flex. Will Johnson be that, perhaps, but worth giving a shot for another year if you have the roster space and he is available at a point in the draft that reflects his uncertainty.
The camp "talk" has QJ as an improving player. Risk/reward (Luck) is a big part of FF.

My whole point on this has been that I expect Johnston's snaps and thus opportunity are going to go down this year, barring injuries to others. Even though I expect the quality of his play to be as good as or better than 2024, I doubt he will reach 75% of his 2024 numbers.

He had 91 targets last year and 8 TDs. I would expect the TDs to come down BUT, they don't really have another guy that can be a big red zone threat if Williams is out. Ladd will get his but after that who do they have? Everyone wants Tre Harris to be the guy but like any rookie I will believe it when I see it.

QJ _could_ end up the #2 target in this offence. I'm not saying he's going to be great or anything but by just being available in this offense he could get close to 100 targets again. Just something to keep your eye on. Don't write anyone off or you miss out on opportunity.

If Harris signs and balls out in camp and takes over the #2 spot then so be it but even then QJ is the #3. I was not a big QJ fan when he came out, especially after his first season but I will admit he took steps to improve. I will keep an open mind here as the #2 passing option here could be worth while down the stretch (if QJ can be consistent).

Do they have better red zone targets compared to last season? Of course. They added Williams, a known quality red zone target. Same for TE Conklin. THey drafted Harris, though it remains to be seen how good he will be in the red zone... I would expect him to be a solid option. They also improved their running game, which could translate to more drives ending in rushing TDs.

I will be very surprised if Johnston gets anything close to 100 targets. I'll project 70 targets for now, barring injuries.

Williams hasn't really been relevant inside the 10 since 2018 when he caught 6 of 9 balls with 6 TDs.

In the last six seasons he has 29 targets, 7 receptions and 4 TDs (21-5-4 with Herbert).

MW will probably get a few jump ball opportunities but so will QJ (6-4-4 in 32 games inside the 10). Neither are precise route runners because they lack short area quickness (QJ has more but I question his ability to read defenses down tight).

I don't see any Charger outside of Ladd with his Davante/Amon Ra Lite precision route running being relevant inside the 10. Everything else in that area, IMO will be a mixed bag of scheming randos open.

 

[Tau837]

Mike Williams is always hurt

This is simply not true.

• 2017 - played 10 of 16 possible games -- opened the season on PUP due to herniated disk in his back; despite missing most of training cap due to the injury, he played in 10 of 11 games starting in week 6
• 2018 - played 18 of 18 possible games
• 2019 - played 15 of 16 possible games
• 2020 - played 15 of 16 possible games
• 2021 - played 16 of 17 possible games
• 2022 - played 13 of 18 possible games
• 2023 - played 3 of 17 possible games -- tore ACL in week 3
• 2024 - played 19 of 19 possible games

Starting in 2018, other than the games missed to his 2023 ACL injury, he played in 99 of 107 games over 7 seasons. If you think this injury history is predictive of future injury, I will agree to disagree with you.

He started 67 of those games. They both have a catch rate around 60%.
Williams did have 2 good years at over 1k yards. Williams was a maddening week to week player as a what the heck flex. Will Johnson be that, perhaps, but worth giving a shot for another year if you have the roster space and he is available at a point in the draft that reflects his uncertainty.
The camp "talk" has QJ as an improving player. Risk/reward (Luck) is a big part of FF.

My whole point on this has been that I expect Johnston's snaps and thus opportunity are going to go down this year, barring injuries to others. Even though I expect the quality of his play to be as good as or better than 2024, I doubt he will reach 75% of his 2024 numbers.

He had 91 targets last year and 8 TDs. I would expect the TDs to come down BUT, they don't really have another guy that can be a big red zone threat if Williams is out. Ladd will get his but after that who do they have? Everyone wants Tre Harris to be the guy but like any rookie I will believe it when I see it.

QJ _could_ end up the #2 target in this offence. I'm not saying he's going to be great or anything but by just being available in this offense he could get close to 100 targets again. Just something to keep your eye on. Don't write anyone off or you miss out on opportunity.

If Harris signs and balls out in camp and takes over the #2 spot then so be it but even then QJ is the #3. I was not a big QJ fan when he came out, especially after his first season but I will admit he took steps to improve. I will keep an open mind here as the #2 passing option here could be worth while down the stretch (if QJ can be consistent).

Do they have better red zone targets compared to last season? Of course. They added Williams, a known quality red zone target. Same for TE Conklin. THey drafted Harris, though it remains to be seen how good he will be in the red zone... I would expect him to be a solid option. They also improved their running game, which could translate to more drives ending in rushing TDs.

I will be very surprised if Johnston gets anything close to 100 targets. I'll project 70 targets for now, barring injuries.

Williams hasn't really been relevant inside the 10 since 2018 when he caught 6 of 9 balls with 6 TDs.

In the last six seasons he has 29 targets, 7 receptions and 4 TDs (21-5-4 with Herbert).

MW will probably get a few jump ball opportunities but so will QJ (6-4-4 in 32 games inside the 10). Neither are precise route runners because they lack short area quickness (QJ has more but I question his ability to read defenses down tight).

I don't see any Charger outside of Ladd with his Davante/Amon Ra Lite precision route running being relevant inside the 10. Everything else in that area, IMO will be a mixed bag of scheming randos open.

The discussion was about red zone targets, not targets inside the 10. If both are healthy, I'm happy to predict that Williams will have more red zone targets than Johnston this season.

 

[Chaka]

Mike Williams is always hurt

This is simply not true.

• 2017 - played 10 of 16 possible games -- opened the season on PUP due to herniated disk in his back; despite missing most of training cap due to the injury, he played in 10 of 11 games starting in week 6
• 2018 - played 18 of 18 possible games
• 2019 - played 15 of 16 possible games
• 2020 - played 15 of 16 possible games
• 2021 - played 16 of 17 possible games
• 2022 - played 13 of 18 possible games
• 2023 - played 3 of 17 possible games -- tore ACL in week 3
• 2024 - played 19 of 19 possible games

Starting in 2018, other than the games missed to his 2023 ACL injury, he played in 99 of 107 games over 7 seasons. If you think this injury history is predictive of future injury, I will agree to disagree with you.

He started 67 of those games. They both have a catch rate around 60%.
Williams did have 2 good years at over 1k yards. Williams was a maddening week to week player as a what the heck flex. Will Johnson be that, perhaps, but worth giving a shot for another year if you have the roster space and he is available at a point in the draft that reflects his uncertainty.
The camp "talk" has QJ as an improving player. Risk/reward (Luck) is a big part of FF.

My whole point on this has been that I expect Johnston's snaps and thus opportunity are going to go down this year, barring injuries to others. Even though I expect the quality of his play to be as good as or better than 2024, I doubt he will reach 75% of his 2024 numbers.

He had 91 targets last year and 8 TDs. I would expect the TDs to come down BUT, they don't really have another guy that can be a big red zone threat if Williams is out. Ladd will get his but after that who do they have? Everyone wants Tre Harris to be the guy but like any rookie I will believe it when I see it.

QJ _could_ end up the #2 target in this offence. I'm not saying he's going to be great or anything but by just being available in this offense he could get close to 100 targets again. Just something to keep your eye on. Don't write anyone off or you miss out on opportunity.

If Harris signs and balls out in camp and takes over the #2 spot then so be it but even then QJ is the #3. I was not a big QJ fan when he came out, especially after his first season but I will admit he took steps to improve. I will keep an open mind here as the #2 passing option here could be worth while down the stretch (if QJ can be consistent).

Do they have better red zone targets compared to last season? Of course. They added Williams, a known quality red zone target. Same for TE Conklin. THey drafted Harris, though it remains to be seen how good he will be in the red zone... I would expect him to be a solid option. They also improved their running game, which could translate to more drives ending in rushing TDs.

I will be very surprised if Johnston gets anything close to 100 targets. I'll project 70 targets for now, barring injuries.

Williams hasn't really been relevant inside the 10 since 2018 when he caught 6 of 9 balls with 6 TDs.

In the last six seasons he has 29 targets, 7 receptions and 4 TDs (21-5-4 with Herbert).

MW will probably get a few jump ball opportunities but so will QJ (6-4-4 in 32 games inside the 10). Neither are precise route runners because they lack short area quickness (QJ has more but I question his ability to read defenses down tight).

I don't see any Charger outside of Ladd with his Davante/Amon Ra Lite precision route running being relevant inside the 10. Everything else in that area, IMO will be a mixed bag of scheming randos open.

The discussion was about red zone targets, not targets inside the 10. If both are healthy, I'm happy to predict that Williams will have more red zone targets than Johnston this season.

You keep hanging your hat on the condition of Williams being healthy. There is a reason for that.

I wasn't comparing QJ to Williams inside the 10. I posted their numbers because I don't think either will be major factors in that area.

Inside the 20 QJ has 19 targets, 11 receptions and 6 TDs over his first two seasons. He was 11-7-4 last year.

In 2022 Williams went 13-9-4 and in 2021 he went 19-7-4

In his two other seasons with Herbert 2020 & 2023 (3 games) he was 12-1-1

I don't have a table comparing efficiency among all WRs inside the RZ but it doesn't seem like Williams and Herbert have any kind of special connection inside the RZ, the 10 or, really anywhere else on the field.

I agree with your assessment of their relative ranks within the offense, if everyone is healthy (I really think we should say "Able to suit up" not "healthy"), mostly because Williams should be more trusted as a veteran by the coaching staff. I presume he is a better blocker in the run game too but I really don't know.

But even if they are all healthy I don't think Williams has some kind of stranglehold on his position in the offense. He's an old 31 (almost). Both Harris and Johnston could push Williams into a lesser role of for no other reason than they are able to handle more snaps.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

I remember last year, QJ was like WR68 or something during draft season. Just seemed odd that a previous years 1st round WR selection had literally no support. He wound up as a WR3 level player along the likes of George Pickens/Rashod Bateman.

And then I look at Underdog ADP and he's still like WR62. In a game where 3rd year WR breakouts are coveted.

Seems an odd community bias.

 

[Chaka]

I remember last year, QJ was like WR68 or something during draft season. Just seemed odd that a previous years 1st round WR selection had literally no support. He wound up as a WR3 level player along the likes of George Pickens/Rashod Bateman.

And then I look at Underdog ADP and he's still like WR62. In a game where 3rd year WR breakouts are coveted.

Seems an odd community bias.

I think the 3rd year breakout belief has really gone away at this point. With the tightening of defensive rules to open the passing and year round training, mini camps, OTAs etc we have seen so many WRs get going in year one that the expectation is if they haven't broken out by year two then there is something wrong with the player.

Also, in QJ's specific case I think a whole lot of people felt he was way too raw and that the Chargers overdrafted him by a good margin.

Personally I am a little bullish on QJ but I absolutely see him as a risk at any draft price. @Tau837 clearly has a better grasp on the Charger offense than, probably anyone else in here, and I am inclined to believe his take that, in a perfect world for the Chargers QJ would be the Z WR and, at best the #3 target. Where I diverge from that is I am not a big believer in Mike Williams anymore and I don't assume that a rookie 2nd round WR (Harris) will be better than QJ who, unquestionably has all the physical tools to be successful in the NFL.

 

[Big Nate]

I remember last year, QJ was like WR68 or something during draft season. Just seemed odd that a previous years 1st round WR selection had literally no support. He wound up as a WR3 level player along the likes of George Pickens/Rashod Bateman.

And then I look at Underdog ADP and he's still like WR62. In a game where 3rd year WR breakouts are coveted.

Seems an odd community bias.

I think the 3rd year breakout belief has really gone away at this point. With the tightening of defensive rules to open the passing and year round training, mini camps, OTAs etc we have seen so many WRs get going in year one that the expectation is if they haven't broken out by year two then there is something wrong with the player.

Also, in QJ's specific case I think a whole lot of people felt he was way too raw and that the Chargers overdrafted him by a good margin.

Personally I am a little bullish on QJ but I absolutely see him as a risk at any draft price. @Tau837 clearly has a better grasp on the Charger offense than, probably anyone else in here, and I am inclined to believe his take that, in a perfect world for the Chargers QJ would be the Z WR and, at best the #3 target. Where I diverge from that is I am not a big believer in Mike Williams anymore and I don't assume that a rookie 2nd round WR (Harris) will be better than QJ who, unquestionably has all the physical tools to be successful in the NFL.

To add to this, Mike Williams is already (still?) injured and on the PUP. He can be activated still but this is not good if he's already injured heading into camp. If Williams can't stay on the field (or even get on it) it bolds well for QJ - even if Harris signs and gets into camp.

At WR69 value QJ is a great dart throw at the end of your draft for a player with upside. If he's doing nothing after week 1 or 2 you can cut him with no risk due to his low ADP. He's one of those type of players I like to draft at the end of drafts. Upside and a guy you can cut easily if needed if he isn't doing much.

 

[warpig33]

Maybe I just have Quentin-Johnston-owner-colored glasses, but I always like a guy who was considered an elite prospect coming into the NFL even if he has a bad year or two. I know I know, Laquon is on the phone to speak with me, and N'Keal is waiting on hold. But still.

He's a great prospect that still has issues with catching and tracking the ball at times that leads to inconsistencies. He improved a lot last year after a horrible year 1. Did he hit his ceiling last year? Maybe, but he also might keep improving. I don't own him myself but someone I'm keeping my eye on and may send an offer if it looks like he could be the #2 this year.

Anyone who's writing him off should have a very short leash on Marvin Harrison Jr next year, for instance. Johnston's catch percentage in his rookie season was better than Harrison's in his rookie season, and he increased that significantly in Johnston's second season. The point being, I doubt most people are remotely close to writing off Harrison. So why write off Johnston yet?

Not really a good comparison. MHJ is going to be the primary read on a lot of targets. QJ will be the primary read on a short number of plays on an offense that wants to run more. And he’s got a lot more competition for targets coming in.

But I agree that there is a world where he can put up similar numbers as last year . If Williams gets hurt and if Harris comes along slowly. Maybe he can. With Williams already on the injury list and Harris a hold out. Certainly possible

If Williams gets hurt

As IF that is ever in doubt with Williams. Is he EVER healthy?

"Chargers general manager Joe Hortiz said, WR Mike Williams “is dealing with a minor injury he suffered in the spring.

The report comes from The Athletic’s Daniel Popper, who gave no further details on the matter. Williams is unlikely to be a reliable fantasy option this year, in his age-30 season. Pending good health, he will haul in a few deep passes from time to time, though."

 

[Ilov80s]

I remember last year, QJ was like WR68 or something during draft season. Just seemed odd that a previous years 1st round WR selection had literally no support. He wound up as a WR3 level player along the likes of George Pickens/Rashod Bateman.

And then I look at Underdog ADP and he's still like WR62. In a game where 3rd year WR breakouts are coveted.

Seems an odd community bias.

There are 5 things at play here IMO

1. The fantasy community was always kind of bearish on QJ. He had a lot of markers for a guy who was overdrafted and overrated.
2. QJ looked awful as a rookie. Like hands of stone and clueless bad.
3. The Chargers followed QJ up with 2 consecutive 2nd round WR picks. One of which, has already looked far better than QJ ever has. And a 1st round RB. They looked at QJ and this offense and said, we need foundational skill players. Which seems to indicate they don't see QJ that way. Harris seems to have a lot of overlap in his game with QJ.
4. People don't expect a Harbaugh/Roman offense to be very pass heavy.
5. I think the 3rd year WR breakout is dead. WRs are breaking out Y1 and Y2 now. I think it's a mix of less physical play allowed from DBs, the massive increase in 7 v 7, HS and college passing games has greatly increased the reps and skill of young WRs and the NFL has more WR friendly passing concepts now (emphaiszing the slot, getting WRs in motion, rub concepts, etc).

 

[munchkin420]

Neither Williams or QJ has a significantly high cap hit, Williams @ 3 mil and QJ at 3.9 mil.
LM is the best offensive player to draft on the Chargers with Hampton and Herbert being the other players worth a more confident draft spot with likely return on investment.

I remember last year, QJ was like WR68 or something during draft season. Just seemed odd that a previous years 1st round WR selection had literally no support. He wound up as a WR3 level player along the likes of George Pickens/Rashod Bateman.

And then I look at Underdog ADP and he's still like WR62. In a game where 3rd year WR breakouts are coveted.

Seems an odd community bias.

I think the 3rd year breakout belief has really gone away at this point. With the tightening of defensive rules to open the passing and year round training, mini camps, OTAs etc we have seen so many WRs get going in year one that the expectation is if they haven't broken out by year two then there is something wrong with the player.

Also, in QJ's specific case I think a whole lot of people felt he was way too raw and that the Chargers overdrafted him by a good margin.

Personally I am a little bullish on QJ but I absolutely see him as a risk at any draft price. @Tau837 clearly has a better grasp on the Charger offense than, probably anyone else in here, and I am inclined to believe his take that, in a perfect world for the Chargers QJ would be the Z WR and, at best the #3 target. Where I diverge from that is I am not a big believer in Mike Williams anymore and I don't assume that a rookie 2nd round WR (Harris) will be better than QJ who, unquestionably has all the physical tools to be successful in the NFL.

To add to this, Mike Williams is already (still?) injured and on the PUP. He can be activated still but this is not good if he's already injured heading into camp. If Williams can't stay on the field (or even get on it) it bolds well for QJ - even if Harris signs and gets into camp.

At WR69 value QJ is a great dart throw at the end of your draft for a player with upside. If he's doing nothing after week 1 or 2 you can cut him with no risk due to his low ADP. He's one of those type of players I like to draft at the end of drafts. Upside and a guy you can cut easily if needed if he isn't doing much.

The bottom line is value vs risk. QJ as a late round what the heck is ok by me. Even in dynasty he would be worth a shot depending on roster size and team constructions. There are just so many variables.
Cut him, keep him, don't think he should be breaking too many hearts.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

I remember last year, QJ was like WR68 or something during draft season. Just seemed odd that a previous years 1st round WR selection had literally no support. He wound up as a WR3 level player along the likes of George Pickens/Rashod Bateman.

And then I look at Underdog ADP and he's still like WR62. In a game where 3rd year WR breakouts are coveted.

Seems an odd community bias.

There are 5 things at play here IMO

1. The fantasy community was always kind of bearish on QJ. He had a lot of markers for a guy who was overdrafted and overrated.
2. QJ looked awful as a rookie. Like hands of stone and clueless bad.
3. The Chargers followed QJ up with 2 consecutive 2nd round WR picks. One of which, has already looked far better than QJ ever has. And a 1st round RB. They looked at QJ and this offense and said, we need foundational skill players. Which seems to indicate they don't see QJ that way. Harris seems to have a lot of overlap in his game with QJ.
4. People don't expect a Harbaugh/Roman offense to be very pass heavy.
5. I think the 3rd year WR breakout is dead. WRs are breaking out Y1 and Y2 now. I think it's a mix of less physical play allowed from DBs, the massive increase in 7 v 7, HS and college passing games has greatly increased the reps and skill of young WRs and the NFL has more WR friendly passing concepts now (emphaiszing the slot, getting WRs in motion, rub concepts, etc).

I mean there are examples of 3rd year breakouts still so long as progress had continued to be shown: Drake London, Nico Collins, Jameson Williams. It's by no means an 'end all' but as it relates to QJ, he's pretty much being drafted this year where he was last year and his Year 2 was >>> Year 1.

As for replenishing the WR room, I mean - they had nothing after Keenan Allen was gone last year. Of course they prioritized acquiring more talent. And as Ladd/QJ & Herbert got their sea legs underneath them, the passing output and leaning on Herbert became a 2nd half of the season theme.

What it feels like to me simply is an FF bias because there was that collective opinion that 'he sucked then and he'll continue to suck because we're gonna die on that hill'...and there is more skin in that eval than not. And once you get to WR40, these are dart throws anyway for the most part.

 

[jm192]

I remember last year, QJ was like WR68 or something during draft season. Just seemed odd that a previous years 1st round WR selection had literally no support. He wound up as a WR3 level player along the likes of George Pickens/Rashod Bateman.

And then I look at Underdog ADP and he's still like WR62. In a game where 3rd year WR breakouts are coveted.

Seems an odd community bias.

There are 5 things at play here IMO

1. The fantasy community was always kind of bearish on QJ. He had a lot of markers for a guy who was overdrafted and overrated.
2. QJ looked awful as a rookie. Like hands of stone and clueless bad.
3. The Chargers followed QJ up with 2 consecutive 2nd round WR picks. One of which, has already looked far better than QJ ever has. And a 1st round RB. They looked at QJ and this offense and said, we need foundational skill players. Which seems to indicate they don't see QJ that way. Harris seems to have a lot of overlap in his game with QJ.
4. People don't expect a Harbaugh/Roman offense to be very pass heavy.
5. I think the 3rd year WR breakout is dead. WRs are breaking out Y1 and Y2 now. I think it's a mix of less physical play allowed from DBs, the massive increase in 7 v 7, HS and college passing games has greatly increased the reps and skill of young WRs and the NFL has more WR friendly passing concepts now (emphaiszing the slot, getting WRs in motion, rub concepts, etc).

I mean there are examples of 3rd year breakouts still so long as progress had continued to be shown: Drake London, Nico Collins, Jameson Williams. It's by no means an 'end all' but as it relates to QJ, he's pretty much being drafted this year where he was last year and his Year 2 was >>> Year 1.

As for replenishing the WR room, I mean - they had nothing after Keenan Allen was gone last year. Of course they prioritized acquiring more talent. And as Ladd/QJ & Herbert got their sea legs underneath them, the passing output and leaning on Herbert became a 2nd half of the season theme.

What it feels like to me simply is an FF bias because there was that collective opinion that 'he sucked then and he'll continue to suck because we're gonna die on that hill'...and there is more skin in that eval than not. And once you get to WR40, these are dart throws anyway for the most part.

This is key to the discussion.

FBG has Williams ranked at WR61. That's a WR6 in 12 team leagues.

There's a point in WR rankings where I'm less interested in what you'll probably do and more interested in what you can do if things break correctly for you. QJ's 17 game pace would have finished around 800 yards and 9 TD's as a sophomore WR.

I think the most likely outcome is Tre Harris is better than QJ. I'm a big fan of Harris.

But Harris is currently holding out. How long does that last? How does it impact Harris? If he continues to hold out--is he going to be behind to start the season? There's a world in which QJ is the 2nd best WR on the team this year. And at WR61--the price is right. For me.

 

[joey]

lol. Mike Williams retiring.

 

[taylormeetstheismann]

QJ is 23 years old. This continues to give me a reasonable measure of hope that he can continue to improve and adjust to starting in the NFL.

 

[warpig33]

lol. Mike Williams retiring.

Will he really be missed? Bump Ladd, QJ, Omarion, and whoever plays TE.

 

[Chaka]

Honestly, sorry to see him go. I drafted him in 2021 and he started off on such a tear through the first five games (1,600-20 TD pace) before tweaking his knee/ankle and that was pretty much it (1,000 yard, 5 TD pace over his last 11 games). When he was on he was hard to stop and he was fun to watch.

 

[jm192]

Well.

Now we can stop arguing whether or not his 300 yards will stand in the way of the younger WR's.

 

[JohnnyU]

Well.

Now we can stop arguing whether or not his 300 yards will stand in the way of the younger WR's.

Quentin usually stands in the way of Quentin.

 

[Ilov80s]

I remember last year, QJ was like WR68 or something during draft season. Just seemed odd that a previous years 1st round WR selection had literally no support. He wound up as a WR3 level player along the likes of George Pickens/Rashod Bateman.

And then I look at Underdog ADP and he's still like WR62. In a game where 3rd year WR breakouts are coveted.

Seems an odd community bias.

There are 5 things at play here IMO

1. The fantasy community was always kind of bearish on QJ. He had a lot of markers for a guy who was overdrafted and overrated.
2. QJ looked awful as a rookie. Like hands of stone and clueless bad.
3. The Chargers followed QJ up with 2 consecutive 2nd round WR picks. One of which, has already looked far better than QJ ever has. And a 1st round RB. They looked at QJ and this offense and said, we need foundational skill players. Which seems to indicate they don't see QJ that way. Harris seems to have a lot of overlap in his game with QJ.
4. People don't expect a Harbaugh/Roman offense to be very pass heavy.
5. I think the 3rd year WR breakout is dead. WRs are breaking out Y1 and Y2 now. I think it's a mix of less physical play allowed from DBs, the massive increase in 7 v 7, HS and college passing games has greatly increased the reps and skill of young WRs and the NFL has more WR friendly passing concepts now (emphaiszing the slot, getting WRs in motion, rub concepts, etc).

I mean there are examples of 3rd year breakouts still so long as progress had continued to be shown: Drake London, Nico Collins, Jameson Williams. It's by no means an 'end all' but as it relates to QJ, he's pretty much being drafted this year where he was last year and his Year 2 was >>> Year 1.

As for replenishing the WR room, I mean - they had nothing after Keenan Allen was gone last year. Of course they prioritized acquiring more talent. And as Ladd/QJ & Herbert got their sea legs underneath them, the passing output and leaning on Herbert became a 2nd half of the season theme.

What it feels like to me simply is an FF bias because there was that collective opinion that 'he sucked then and he'll continue to suck because we're gonna die on that hill'...and there is more skin in that eval than not. And once you get to WR40, these are dart throws anyway for the most part.

What you say makes sense and ofc at his draft range, why not? There is little risk.

I will say this about the Nico, London, Jamo comps as 3rd year breakouts.

1. Nico was a 3rd round pick who was pretty inexperienced. He only got playing time 2 years at Michigan and it was a pretty archaic passing offense. He was mostly just asked to run go balls, they had very poor QB play. It makes sense he needed time and wasn't a top priority to get on the field.

2. Jamo was a 1st round pick but had injuries and the suspension hurdles to overcome Y1 and Y2.

3. Given what the Atlanta passing game was Y1 and Y2, I would say Drake London broke out Y1.

 

[Big Nate]

lol. Mike Williams retiring.

QJ will have more targets than Williams confirmed.

/bump in value

 

[Big Nate]

I remember last year, QJ was like WR68 or something during draft season. Just seemed odd that a previous years 1st round WR selection had literally no support. He wound up as a WR3 level player along the likes of George Pickens/Rashod Bateman.

And then I look at Underdog ADP and he's still like WR62. In a game where 3rd year WR breakouts are coveted.

Seems an odd community bias.

There are 5 things at play here IMO

1. The fantasy community was always kind of bearish on QJ. He had a lot of markers for a guy who was overdrafted and overrated.
2. QJ looked awful as a rookie. Like hands of stone and clueless bad.
3. The Chargers followed QJ up with 2 consecutive 2nd round WR picks. One of which, has already looked far better than QJ ever has. And a 1st round RB. They looked at QJ and this offense and said, we need foundational skill players. Which seems to indicate they don't see QJ that way. Harris seems to have a lot of overlap in his game with QJ.
4. People don't expect a Harbaugh/Roman offense to be very pass heavy.
5. I think the 3rd year WR breakout is dead. WRs are breaking out Y1 and Y2 now. I think it's a mix of less physical play allowed from DBs, the massive increase in 7 v 7, HS and college passing games has greatly increased the reps and skill of young WRs and the NFL has more WR friendly passing concepts now (emphaiszing the slot, getting WRs in motion, rub concepts, etc).

I mean there are examples of 3rd year breakouts still so long as progress had continued to be shown: Drake London, Nico Collins, Jameson Williams. It's by no means an 'end all' but as it relates to QJ, he's pretty much being drafted this year where he was last year and his Year 2 was >>> Year 1.

As for replenishing the WR room, I mean - they had nothing after Keenan Allen was gone last year. Of course they prioritized acquiring more talent. And as Ladd/QJ & Herbert got their sea legs underneath them, the passing output and leaning on Herbert became a 2nd half of the season theme.

What it feels like to me simply is an FF bias because there was that collective opinion that 'he sucked then and he'll continue to suck because we're gonna die on that hill'...and there is more skin in that eval than not. And once you get to WR40, these are dart throws anyway for the most part.

What you say makes sense and ofc at his draft range, why not? There is little risk.

I will say this about the Nico, London, Jamo comps as 3rd year breakouts.

1. Nico was a 3rd round pick who was pretty inexperienced. He only got playing time 2 years at Michigan and it was a pretty archaic passing offense. He was mostly just asked to run go balls, they had very poor QB play. It makes sense he needed time and wasn't a top priority to get on the field.

2. Jamo was a 1st round pick but had injuries and the suspension hurdles to overcome Y1 and Y2.

3. Given what the Atlanta passing game was Y1 and Y2, I would say Drake London broke out Y1.

My thoughts on this is Nico, London and Jamo were all more talented from a route running and tracking perspective. QJ does get good separation but can get lost tracking the ball. He did improve last year.

All three have/had their own issues and can't be compared IMO other than "breaking out" at their own pace.

QJs issues are probably the biggest and hardest to fix but he did show improvement in that area so who knows where he is at. I'm not sure it will ever truly be fixed but there is hope. He might go down as the next MVS or Christian Watson if he can't fix the tracking and catching issue. But if he can he can be the guy we always hoped they would be come. I do think QJ is much better with the ball in his hands once he does make the catch.

 

[Biabreakable]

Mike Williams is always hurt

This is simply not true.

2017 - played 10 of 16 possible games -- opened the season on PUP due to herniated disk in his back; played in 10 of 11 games starting in week 6
2018 - played 18 of 18 possible games
2019 - played 15 of 16 possible games
2020 - played 15 of 16 possible games
2021 - played 16 of 17 possible games
2022 - played 13 of 18 possible games
2023 - played 3 of 17 possible games -- tore ACL in week 3
2024 - played 19 of 19 possible games

Starting in 2018, other than the games missed to his 2023 ACL injury, he played in 99 of 107 games over 7 seasons. If you think this injury history is predictive of future injury, I will agree to disagree with you.

If you take the typical "[so-and-so] is always injured" thing and exaggerate the quantity of players to the same proportion that the injury frequency is exaggerated, it would probably just become "All the players are always injured. No one actually plays in any NFL games."

And their old right away too.

Add up all the reasons to not draft players and go to your draft with like 6 or so players who don't have any of those reasons and watch them get drafted before you.

 

[Tau837]

Also, in QJ's specific case I think a whole lot of people felt he was way too raw and that the Chargers overdrafted him by a good margin.

People may feel that way, but he was fairly unanimously regarded as a 1st round pick and one of the top WRs in the 2023 draft. Here is a post I wrote after that draft: 2023 Draft Rankings/Discussion.

IMO the real problem is that it was known that he needed to be used in a certain way to maximize his skillset, and the Chargers did not use him that way. Even with Williams retiring, I still think the Chargers would be better off if they could use Johnston at Z rather than X, because it is a better fit for his skillset.

 

[taylormeetstheismann]

Here is a post I wrote after that draft: 2023 Draft Rankings/Discussion.

Very cool! I like the analysis.

I’d like to think a young player like QJ will get at least a little better with another year of coaching and experience. The departure of Mike Williams can only help Johnston.

 

[Scoresman]

What am I missing about QJ being bad? 91/711/8 is not bad on paper for a team's WR2, but I dont watch Charger games.

 

[munchkin420]

QJ knows what he needs to improve on and seems to be working at it. Hopefully he gets to a place where he can better help the team.
Williams had a pretty good career. He has a lot of his life ahead of him and the means to make a positive impact.
Life moves on and FBG's forums will be a good place to have fruitful, if often frustrating, discussions.

 

[eighsse2]

What am I missing about QJ being bad? 91/711/8 is not bad on paper for a team's WR2, but I dont watch Charger games.

91 is the targets, it was 55 receptions (maybe you knew that, but usually that stat line means receptions, I think). But still yeah it's not atrocious for a young guy who has room to grow his game.

 

[Jail]

Well.

Now we can stop arguing whether or not his 300 yards will stand in the way of the younger WR's.

Quentin usually stands in the way of Quentin.

Yeah this is definitely the biggest issue. He’ll be in perfect position to make a great play and yet the bigger the moment the more likely he seems to get the yips. I don’t know if players can ever move past this?

What we do know is that the LAC took a WR in round 2 just one year after taking another Wr in round 2 last year.

This year is when QJ should be really coming into his prime. 3rd year in the league, 2nd in the same system. And yet they passed up on a lot of interior OL and DL players that were really a bigger need for them if they could count on QJ. Instead they took WR in round 2 and again in round 5. And they brought in Williams. That doesn’t speak to confidence in QJ.

Hopefully he can get past his issues. I suspect the LAC have sufficient doubts.

 

[Faust]

Eric Smith
Big day for #Chargers WR Quentin Johnston so far.

He’s caught 2 TDs (58 and 25 yards), both from Justin Herbert.

https://x.com/eric_l_smith/status/1947361641206845646?s=61

 

[Tau837]

Even with Williams retiring, I still think the Chargers would be better off if they could use Johnston at Z rather than X, because it is a better fit for his skillset.

I just got around to reading Matt Harmon's 2024 profile of Johnston at Reception Perception. It is pretty negative. I have been saying all offseason that Johnston needs to be moved to Z, and that will hurt Johnston's opportunities and fantasy production. Harmon agrees:

Maybe there’s another step of growth to take here but that’s going to have to come with a move out of the X-receiver spot on a permanent basis, which would almost guarantee his snaps and route participation face severe cuts. That’s probably not a bad thing for the Chargers offense.

...my bet is that if he remains in the Chargers’ rotation, he needs to lose his job to Harris at X-receiver and come on the field in three-receiver sets as the flanker, specializing in YAC-based routes. The goal is a lower target total but higher-yield looks going forward.

 

[JohnnyU]

Burks2

 

[Faust]

Chargers WR Quentin Johnston carted off after big hit

 

[eighsse2]

0 catches on 2 targets and a concussion ... I thought I was convinced that he was going to make my dynasty cut. Now I don't know. But, dropping him would only free up the #45 rookie draft pick, so ... why would I even do that.

 

[Faust]

Underdog NFL
Quentin Johnston cleared concussion protocol.

https://x.com/underdognfl/status/1962577038763503779?s=61

 

[Uncle Leo]

2/2 with a TD. Not a bad start, eh?

 

[Faust]

Scott Barrett
Los Angeles Chargers Receivers
[Last 5 Quarters of Regular Season Football]

Ladd McConkey: 6 catches, 104 yards, 0 TD
Quentin Johnston: 15 catches, 224 yards, 1 TD

https://x.com/scottbarrettdfb/status/1964122587413270666?s=61

 

[Uncle Leo]

Ladd and Keenan have 12 targets combined. Q has 2.

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

The Big Q
2 TD

 

[Uncle Leo]

What a great game for Q. Should have 3 TDs if that one was not dropped/defended.

 

[Down Under]

Ladd and Keenan have 12 targets combined. Q has 2.

Q has way more than 2. So far, the #1 pickup in redrafts.

 

[Uncle Leo]

Ladd and Keenan have 12 targets combined. Q has 2.

Q has way more than 2. So far, the #1 pickup in redrafts.

You are right. I just dropped Kirk for him.

 

[BespokeJort]

Arguably a sell opportunity given he’s pretty clearly the wr3 but great game for the kid. This offense looks like it might be a little more wide open than anticipated; the play may have been Herbert

 

[Down Under]

Ladd and Keenan have 12 targets combined. Q has 2.

Q has way more than 2. So far, the #1 pickup in redrafts.

You are right. I just dropped Kirk for him.

You were able to pick Q up even though he his playing in the game?

 

[KellysHeroes]

I think some of you might have to admit your wrong about this kid

 

[Uncle Leo]

Ladd and Keenan have 12 targets combined. Q has 2.

Q has way more than 2. So far, the #1 pickup in redrafts.

You are right. I just dropped Kirk for him.

You were able to pick Q up even though he his playing in the game?

Yeah, for some reason the FA period closes at 1 PM on Sunday. Long time league and we are allowed to add players during games on Thursday to Saturday.

 

[Down Under]

Ladd and Keenan have 12 targets combined. Q has 2.

Q has way more than 2. So far, the #1 pickup in redrafts.

You are right. I just dropped Kirk for him.

You were able to pick Q up even though he his playing in the game?

Yeah, for some reason the FA period closes at 1 PM on Sunday. Long time league and we are allowed to add players during games on ThuKrsday to Saturday.

Lucky you!

 

[The Frankman]

Quentin Johnston caught 5-of-7 targets for 79 yards and two touchdowns in the Chargers’ Week 1 win over the Chiefs.

Johnston got on the board in the first quarter with a short touchdown catch from five yards out. His second touchdown came in the fourth quarter and ultimately iced the game. Johnston turned things around after a dreadful rookie season with eight touchdowns in 2024. Though he appears to be third in the pecking order for targets behind Ladd McConkey and Keenan Allen, his nose for the end zone is undeniable. Johnston will be in the FLEX mix for his Week 2 matchup with the Raiders.
- Rotoworld