jtd13
Footballguy
Johnston was inconsistent on jump balls but was good down the field in college. He had a well above average adot.
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WR Quentin Johnston, LAC (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter greenmountaingoat
- Start date
Biabreakable
Footballguy
While Johnsons snap counts doubled from previous games to 50% snap counts for TE Stone Smartt 40% and Tre McKitty 35% also increased.
TE Donald Parhams snaps which had been 50% the previous 3 games dropped to 23% so I am guessing he was hurt and McKitty replaced him.
Gerald Everett played 69% of the snaps, slightly higher than the 67% he had in week one.
What I am seeing here is increaed use of TEs in the absence of Mike Williams although Johnsons snaps have increased as well.
Palmers snaps increased to 86% which is similar to the playing time that Mike Williams was on the field not counting game 3 where he was injured and Palmer was playing about 60% of the snap prior to Mike Williams was out while Johnsons snaps only increased to 50%
Its still an improvement in playing time for Johnson which is a good sign, that just needs to be tempered a bit because of the increased playing time for the TEs with Williams out as well.
Eta - I fixed an unintentional error here thats been quoted. His snap counts were 50% not 60% I just fat fingered that while in haste.
TE Donald Parhams snaps which had been 50% the previous 3 games dropped to 23% so I am guessing he was hurt and McKitty replaced him.
Gerald Everett played 69% of the snaps, slightly higher than the 67% he had in week one.
What I am seeing here is increaed use of TEs in the absence of Mike Williams although Johnsons snaps have increased as well.
Palmers snaps increased to 86% which is similar to the playing time that Mike Williams was on the field not counting game 3 where he was injured and Palmer was playing about 60% of the snap prior to Mike Williams was out while Johnsons snaps only increased to 50%
Its still an improvement in playing time for Johnson which is a good sign, that just needs to be tempered a bit because of the increased playing time for the TEs with Williams out as well.
Eta - I fixed an unintentional error here thats been quoted. His snap counts were 50% not 60% I just fat fingered that while in haste.
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Chaka
Footballguy
FarFromHome
Footballguy
This. I think for redraft leagues he is a drop. Appeared to have no intention of even trying to game plan him in. The sloooooow route with him is clear
stubby
Footballguy
I agree that it's definitely Palmer for now, but by week 10 or so, it will be QJ, IMO.
Tau837
Footballguy
OU#1
Footballguy
Looks like Palmer is the #2 WR (for now) and I’m debating on dropping QJ in a keep 2 player league (can keep him as a 9th for two more years). He just looks like the prototypical Rookie WR that needs more time and his usage has to improve 4-5 fold to be FFB relevant. It may happen later in the year but short benches and looming bye weeks might force the hand.
ZADO
Footballguy
nope
Black and Gold
Footballguy
I'm still bullish in dynasty. I didn't watch the entire game last night but what I watched, I saw at least twice where Johnston had 2 steps in the defender and Herbert couldn't get him the ball. Herbert was throwing very quickly last night to avoid the Dallas pass rush.
Of course no one’s dropping him. He was a first round rookie pick. Don’t you remember how long people hung onto Laquon Treadwell and Jalen Reagor?
Judge Smails
Footballguy
Was at the game. Wasn’t in much and when he did created zero separation. Expected way more from him. Didn’t pass the eye test
pretty common, those 3 were kinda a toss up, i saw a lot of rookie rankings w/ Quentin ahead of the other two.
Black and Gold
Footballguy
Last night's game plan was set up for the intermediate routes. Allen was peppered. Until the Chargers Oline looks better, that's all Herbert has time for.
EBF
Footballguy
My take on him entering the season:
I'm not a huge fan and don't have him on any dynasty rosters (I'm not even in any dynasty leagues anymore).
Maybe he's just the Reagor or Treadwell of this draft. A non-starter bust. I was not high on him at TCU, which you can see in my earlier posts here.
However, I think if you watched him play in college, he never looked like a guy who was going to be NFL-ready from the jump. Game is very rough around the edges. Needs to add muscle and work on the nuances of route running. I think a slow start was baked in, irrespective of Williams going down. I also think Josh Palmer is a pretty decent WR, so it's not like QJ is losing usage to a total scrub.
I'm not a believer, but if you bought already, I don't know that you should be panicking. This is probably a 2-3 year investment before you'll know what you have, for better or worse.
I'm not a huge fan and don't have him on any dynasty rosters (I'm not even in any dynasty leagues anymore).
Maybe he's just the Reagor or Treadwell of this draft. A non-starter bust. I was not high on him at TCU, which you can see in my earlier posts here.
However, I think if you watched him play in college, he never looked like a guy who was going to be NFL-ready from the jump. Game is very rough around the edges. Needs to add muscle and work on the nuances of route running. I think a slow start was baked in, irrespective of Williams going down. I also think Josh Palmer is a pretty decent WR, so it's not like QJ is losing usage to a total scrub.
I'm not a believer, but if you bought already, I don't know that you should be panicking. This is probably a 2-3 year investment before you'll know what you have, for better or worse.
Not giving up on QJ yet. I think it's just a rookie thing and they're easing him in. How else would they know what they got in him without giving him real opportunities? Especially with the draft capital. His snap count is really low and never been targeted more than 3 times. Can't really call him a bust yet with what he's been given. Reagor in his rookie year averaged 6 targets and over 70 percent of snaps. Give that to QJ and let's see what he does with it.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Boy IDK. They're a team with legit SB aspirations, Mike Williams went down and they don't think this guy can help them now or that he is worth developing at the moment in the hopes he can help them later. That's... not good. My most positive rose colored glasses line of thinking I can come up with is that Brandon Staley is still super inexperienced and there is an art to developing someone who isn't ready today. They have to get reps to get better and it's hard to give reps to someone you're less than 100% on. Too many red flags and I regret drafting this guy.
There is not much 'rookie thing' anymore. Great wrs typically come in and perform nowadays. He is in one of the more high powered offenses and can't do anything? Every other rookie wr is out there doing things
Ardbeg4ever
Footballguy
Yeah, I don't understand how analysts like Pat Fitzmaurice (who is very good) and Derek Brown (no so much) continually list this guy as a top free agent add (even this week).
Biabreakable
Footballguy
These are not the examples to use as a reason to hang on to him.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
A pretty long time ago there used to be a trend about the 3rd year being a break out season for WR. Then also a long time ago this was for the most part debunked as the 2nd season was when we saw most WR breaking out statistically if they did at all.
The college game has changed a lot since then as has the NFL. These WR get a lot more action and a chance to develop and show their worth in college now than they used to.
Surely the Chargers know this as much as any of us do and they decided to take this guy in the first round. It also seems to me, but correct me if I am wrong that many of their high WR picks have not developed right away. Injuries may have been part of that lack of early development in regard to Mike Williams, but that does seem like an ongoing trend.
That said who are some examples of highly drafted WR picks that did nothing much as rookies yet ended up being good performers later on in their careers?
I am sure there must be some but no one off the top of my head immediately comes to mind.
The college game has changed a lot since then as has the NFL. These WR get a lot more action and a chance to develop and show their worth in college now than they used to.
Surely the Chargers know this as much as any of us do and they decided to take this guy in the first round. It also seems to me, but correct me if I am wrong that many of their high WR picks have not developed right away. Injuries may have been part of that lack of early development in regard to Mike Williams, but that does seem like an ongoing trend.
That said who are some examples of highly drafted WR picks that did nothing much as rookies yet ended up being good performers later on in their careers?
I am sure there must be some but no one off the top of my head immediately comes to mind.
eighsse2
Footballguy
After searching a dozen names off the top of my head, the only one I found that had a similar first several games (very low snap %, few targets) was Tyreek Hill. As for production during that span, Tyreek had similarly low yardage, but unlike Johnston, he did catch the vast majority of balls thrown his way, and a couple for touchdowns.
eighsse2
Footballguy
Additionally, pre-Williams injury, I would say "He's just in an unfortunate situation for now with two stars ahead of him, but they're aging; give it time." But with Williams out, it's Josh Palmer doubling his snap count? That isn't a good sign for the future. But, the post-Williams-injury sample size is very small. Need to see a little flash very soon.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Yeah I was curious and so I read a few articles about 3rd year WR break out.
It always depends on what you call a break out or not. These other authors I read using different criteria for that.
What I did find out is that most of the WR are breaking out either year one or year two. Something like 64 to 70% of them depending on thresholds one uses for that.
But there are some that dont break out until year 3 to year 5. The other 30% or so of them here. Im pretty sure data being used for this gets clouded by injuries derailing some of those early seasons too.
One high profile WR I found that I would say didnt break out until year 3 is Davante Adams. Maybe there are some mitigating circumstances as a part of that. He only played 13 games his second season. Was Rodgers injured in one of those two years as well? Not sure atm. But okay there is one who became a star later in his career. There must be a few more looking at the last 10 years or so.
The 2014 WR class being so good is where a lot of this shifted towards earlier WR break outs being somewhat normalized. What a great WR class that was.
Anyhow he is rookie. I dont think you can turn the page here until the end of the 2024 season at the earliest, but yeah he isnt off to a good start.
Eta - Rogers was fine in Adams 2nd season. So that wasnt a factor here. Something one does have to look at though when considering when these WR break out or not. Its not all just the WR that can prevent that.
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eighsse2
Footballguy
However, to continue the comparison with Tyreek Hill, Hill was being dwarfed in snaps by the WR2 Chris Conley, and on similar ground at best with the WR3 Albert Wilson and the TE2 Demetrius Harris. Getting beaten out by Keenan Allen and Josh Palmer doesn't sound so awful now.
karl.Racki
Footballguy
I am not ready to call him a bust. IMO his ceiling this year was low. He was drafted by a team with a lot of weapons that were going to be in front of him.
That said, I did drop him, but I am in a redraft,. If I was in a dynasty league, I would stash him. I get dropping him for immediate help.
BoltNlava
Footballguy
Chargers "Charger". That's all you need to know. Cheap *** coach every freaking time (except coach Coryell a man before his time). Spanos is a on the cheap owner who will not deliver a WC during his rein. Even if Williams is usable or even salvageable ...you got a head coach who is in waaay above his head. I'd say it's like Marvin Mims usage but that is just payton's huberis.
not so sure about that first part, i got laughed at in preseason when I suggested Palmer was ahead of him, and now Williams is out for the year
Black and Gold
Footballguy
Good find. Confirmed what I saw. He ran plenty of "go routes". With the Dallas pressure, the ball was gone before his route even started.
Put Johnston in Allen's role for a game a we'll see what he does.
In redraft, sure...I have my doubts that he'll be anything this year.
Dynasty, I'm buying everywhere.
Wigglytuff's Gruff
Footballguy
My takeaway from that, is the Chargers O-line is not giving the team much of a chance for WR routes to develop.
cdclopper
Footballguy
Good find!? I made it.
Rookiefever
Footballguy
I always thought he would take some time develop. His college tape was a mixed bag for sure. Good buy low candidate imo.
Palmer will always be under rated imo. Guy does his job pretty well and I’d bet he’ll be in the league a long time. Definitely not a superstar but a reliable nfl wr.
Palmer will always be under rated imo. Guy does his job pretty well and I’d bet he’ll be in the league a long time. Definitely not a superstar but a reliable nfl wr.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Since Williams’ injury, his snap counts increased to 50% & 47%. He has been targeted on 9.3% of his routes run (4/43) in those two games.
In redraft he’s not even a bye week filler rn.
In redraft he’s not even a bye week filler rn.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Nope, he’s got a long long way to go. I’m not sure he ever gets there.
TwinTurbo
Footballguy
My observations
Lots of go routes where he is not going to be targeted and he runs like it
He did show some burst on a couple routes but overall he looks slow and unpolished.
