Diggs is a 31 year old diva recovering from a torn ACL, and NE knew this. NE staff still chose to give him lots of guaranteed $$. They must think he still has gas in the tank, and even if he misses a few games to start the season, if/when healthy, my guess is he will see about 7.5 targets per game. Yes, I know the low targets per game numbers for NE players for the last few years. But if Jakobi Meyers can get 7.4 per game in 2021 with Mac Jones, or Kendrick Bourne can get 6.9 per game with a combo of Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe, surely a player of Diggs caliber can get 7.5 with 2nd year QB Drake Maye, right?Well, it was recently reported that he’s likely to miss 4 games.Current WR rankings from a few sites
FBG - WR33
ESPN - WR44
Fantasypros - WR45
Yahoo - WR46
Diggs has been a target hog on all 3 teams he's been on
MIN - 8.5 targets per start
BUF - 9.9 targets per start
HOU - 8.0 targets per start
Over the last 4 seasons (since the NFL went to 17 games), the average WR45 has 80 targets. Diggs will either have to miss a decent amount of games or be reduced to a 5 target per game guy to finish around WR45.
So what’s a 13 game Diggs look like as the WR1 (?) of the Patriots?
I roster him in 1 league. I was offered a 4th and 5th for him and declined it. I look at him like I look at Mike Williams in his return to the Chargers. Break glass in case of emergency bench depth.
In a perfect world I’ll never have to start either of them. But they’re better than “roster cloggers”. BYE week dart throws / WR6-7 types. They’re nice to roster when you have a need, but you’re really hoping they come out the gate hot so you can flip em to another team.
Neither is a dude I would target in dynasty unless they’re cheap. I did just give up a 31 y/o S in IDP for Mike Williams. He’ll likely die on my roster. And that’s ok, so long as I get a game out of him when I have 2 WR with hammy tweaks & 1 on the BYE.
I agree with the WR44-46 rankings. WR33 seems wildly optimistic, but I’m all-in if that happens. Immediately flip him to WR-needy team before he hurts [insert body part here]. He is the starting X WR for Herbert’s LAC. I can definitely see a hot early start bumping his value. You just have to hold your breath that every catch won’t be his last.
13 games, 98 targets, 65 catches, 720 yards, 5 TD's = certainly a starter-worthy WR3 when he's on the field.