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WR/TE N'Keal Harry - MIN (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter Interseptopus
- Start date
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Harry wasn’t planning on doing the 3 cone or short shuttle at his pro day but did when asked. No official time released but this guy had him at 6.89 for the 3 cone which would have basically been top 5 for the WR class.
https://twitter.com/brettkollmann/status/1111303279378481157?s=21
https://twitter.com/brettkollmann/status/1111303279378481157?s=21
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Gandalf
Footballguy
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ffmail4me
Footballguy
barackdhouse
Footballguy
^^^^^^At least the 4th time I've seen him listed at 6'0" in a blurb. Google says 6'4". Combine measured 6'2".
rockaction
Footballguy
That's exactly what I was thinking. I thought he was 6'4". He measured 6'2" at the combine? That's gotta hurt his stock a bit.
eta* He did, indeed measure 6'2" according to NFL.com's NFL Draft and Combine Profile.
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Ilov80s
Footballguy
His measurables at the combine did nothing but help him IMO. I don't think there is even really an advantage in being 6'4" vs 6'2". If you are in that range and weight 220+ then you have prototypical NFL WR size. Who knows why so many places keep getting his heigh wrong. Maybe they are thinking of AJ Brown?
rockaction
Footballguy
You might be very right. My premise was that I think if your speed was in question, your height is a factor. But he ran a 4.53. Brown, at 6'0", ran a 4.49. So I don't know. A lot of teams are looking at N'Keal Harry as one of their top choices, and they have all his film, so there's that. I don't know his three-cone or anything like that, as I really just started looking at WRs a little while ago.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Right 4.53 isn’t slow. It’s 53rd percentile for an NFL WR and when we factor in his size, it’s a 90th percentile speed score. There aren’t very many WRs in the NFL with his combo of size and speed. He didn’t do the 3 cone at the combine but he did at his pro day and it was really good. I posted about it earlier in the thread. At this point the only knock on Harry I hear is that he doesn’t separate and he was used a lot out of the slot in college. He didn’t separate but produced 3000 yards and 26 TDs in 3 years- including his true freshman season. He was 18 and the #1 WR against Washington (who I believe had 3 or 4 DBs drafted in the first two rounds on that defense) and he had 114 of the 230 ASU passing yards. I am always going to trust production and measurables over more subjective film analysis.
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Ilov80s
Footballguy
Just to give an idea how widely subjective film grinding can be, look no further than Hakeem Butler:
Lance Zurlein has him at WR14
Greg Cosell comped him to AJ Green
Matt Waldman said he’s one of the best prospects he’s ever watched
Daniel Jeremiah has him outside of the top 50.
It is wild how far flung these opinions are.
Lance Zurlein has him at WR14
Greg Cosell comped him to AJ Green
Matt Waldman said he’s one of the best prospects he’s ever watched
Daniel Jeremiah has him outside of the top 50.
It is wild how far flung these opinions are.
rockaction
Footballguy
Yeah, they're crazy. But Butler is probably an interesting outlier to prove your point. He's almost 6'6" but ran a 4.48, putting him in the top 98 percent of all receivers when factoring in height. His arms are long. His hands are huge. His drop rate is through the roof, though. It, according to the fine work of our own ZWK, is 13.4%, by far the worst of all the top prospects in the draft. That's what scares people about him. As are his double catches (catches where he bobbles and then catches). There's huge questions about his catching ability but not his physical skills otherwise. That might be causing the varied opinions, though that happens with all these guys.
eta* And he's 23.5 years old, so he's older.
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Ilov80s
Footballguy
The part that scares me the most with him is why is a guy who’s basically Superman taking 4 years to become such a dominant player? Redshirted, 9 catches, tied for 3rd on the team with receptions and then huge 4th year. Its not like he was at Ohio State or some other crowded elite program. He was at Iowa Stare. It just makes me nervous when an uber athlete struggles to make an impact for so long.
To tie this back into Harry- N’keal is the opposite scenario where he became the WR1 the moment he stepped onto campus.
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rockaction
Footballguy
So you really look at production and where the gaps between physical talent and actual production happen. That's really interesting. Another thing to consider. I like it.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I haven’t looked at the data myself but I do believe from experts I trust that breakout age is one of the more predictive factors for evaluating prospects.It makes sense when you think about the physical and mental development that happens from 18-24. For example Butler is 6 months older than JuJu. While Butler was the 3rd leading WR on his Iowa State team in 2017, JuJu was putting up 900/7 for the Pittsburgh Steelers and scoring a TD in the NFL playoffs. It’s an extreme example but I think it highlights why age is so significant.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
I read at DFL that breakout age >21 years correlates with a 10% hit rate. Here are rookie wrs with a breakout age >21yo:
Hakeem Butler
Deebo Samuel
Anthony Johnson
Riley Ridley
Emanuel Hall
Marquise Brown
Penny Hart
Paris Campbell
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Zyphros
Footballguy
I know for Deebo, Ridley, and Campbell you can explain that away a little bit with injuries and offense they were under, not so sure about the others though.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
I believe the hit rate was starting greater than 50% of their career games. I could be wrong. I am trying to find out the answer to your 2nd question
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Zyphros
Footballguy
Interseptopus
Footballguy
however marquis brown also had a 26.2% dominator rating. paired with his late breakout age he does not project as a future fantasy wr1
Gandalf
Footballguy
Interseptopus
Footballguy
been reading up on a lot of correlation metrics and Brown does not fair well at all. Officially avoiding completely.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Yep. Awesome hands and a knack for tracking down the ball.
Most of those highlights were deep balls, where he didnt get separation. Definitely a concern of mine. Great catches nonetheless. But seeing him not being able to separate from some of those scrawny DBs caught my attention as well
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Ilov80s
Footballguy
Interseptopus
Footballguy
I think he will be very good and I'd be happy to draft him. I just wish there was more of a route tree on his highlights
I have a feeling(fear I guess) that Harry's role will be as a big slot WR, ala Marques Colston, because of the lack of separation. So he'll mostly be making contested catches by design between LB's and S's.
I don't have Harry as a top-5 WR(probably 7-10 range) on my board talent wise, but its close enough, that landing spot could change his ranking for me.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
The drop rate being so high may be part of the reason he wasn't more productive earlier on in his college career.
The thing about drops is that if can affect the QB and coaches confidence in going to that player, especially on 3rd down. Coaches are control freaks, so dropping the ball a lot in practice is going to affect how they game plan and call plays.
Reading between the lines I do get the sense that the coach is saying Hakeem Butler needed to become more consistent, and that he improved each year he was with the team, but consistency was something he still needed to work on. He might not be talking about just Butlers catch technique, but that is definitely part of what he is talking about.
What is interesting to me in relation to the drop rate is that Noah Fant tied Butler for the highest and yet no one talks about Fant having trouble with catching the ball. Fant is being talked about as a top 10 draft pick recently. Pinch me as I think silly season is in full swing now.
None of this is related to Harry who has excellent hands. That is his main strength in my view. Harry has really good body control to adjust to the ball in flight, he uses this to shield defenders from the ball. He has very good spatial awareness. This is how he wins contested catches, because he is in control and making it hard for the defender.
I think both players are tier one prospects. Butler is a lot more risk, the upside is pretty great as well though.
I see Hakeem Buitler as a similar player to Plaxico Burress, while Harry is more like Larry Fitzgerald or Chris Carter in play style. I doubt either will have careers as good as these comps, but thats the upside I think.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Harry sounds a little like Corey Davis. Strong hands and maybe not the quickest out of breaks. If that is the case landing spot will play a larger roll in FF success.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Somewhere between Corey Davis-lite and Jalen Strong-plus.
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Why is a big slot Colston role bad? I know Colston ended up with Brees but he also had 6 1000 yard seasons and averaged 7 TDs a season for a 10 year career. Is the big slot WR role a bad role?
Its bad because most teams don't feature or even have that role. I firmly believe Colston without Brees, is a mediocre NFL WR, like say, Devin Funchess. If Harry ends up in Green Bay, or Kansas City, or perhaps even Indy, I'll be higher on him, because those are teams that can take advantage, but if he doesn't, its really hard for me to see him as a top-5 WR in this class, because I don't trust his ability to separate on the outside.
If I were doing an NFL big board, and in charge of every team's draft, Harry would probably be a late 2nd, or early 3rd round pick for me. I simply don't see a high ceiling at all. Comparsions to Dez Bryant and Michael Thomas seem outlandish to me. The Jeffery/Robinson comps are closer to what I think his upside is. The viewing of Harry vs Arcega-Whiteside is really interesting to me. I'm very aware that I'm in the minority, but I fail to see how JJAW isn't the better prospect. They are roughly the same size, and JJAW has better speed, hands, and route running. Harry has better RAC. Harry has a lower floor and a lower ceiling in my eyes.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
1. Why do you think Colston would have been mediocre? He went to small school but other than that, he was a hell of a prospect.
2. JJ is a really good prospect and he showed Harry like speed at the combine. Harry is a year younger which is nice for dynasty. Ultimately, I agree these guys are both great prospects. I put JJ, Nkeal, AJ Brown and Isabella into my top 4 of the class. Saying that Harry best comps to Allen Robinson and Alshon is fine by me. Those guys have had good careers disrupted by injury. Since injury is random and there is no reason to think Harry has any extra injury risk, I would be excited to draft 21 year old injury free Alshon Jeffrey or Allen Robinson in round 1. To me that sounds like a cornerstone of a dynasty team.
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Was Colston a great prospect? He had a nice combine, but small school couldn't have been the only reason he went in round 7. I just don't think he'd have been put in great position to succeed anywhere else compared to New Orleans. Frankly, he wasn't really even that great in New Orleans. Sure, he had 6 1,000 yard seasons, but his QB was breaking yardage records left and right. During Colston's career, there were 7 5,000 yard passing seasons, and 4 were by Brees. Despite that, Colston peaked with 1,202 yards, and never made a single all-pro or pro bowl.
Swap out Harry for Metcalf and we have the same other top 4 WR's. I kind of view the WR's as follows:
Metcalf=High ceiling, low floor...AJ Brown=High ceiling, medium floor....Arcega-Whiteside=High ceiling, high floor....Isabella=High ceiling, high floor....Harry=Low ceiling, medium floor.....Hollywood=Medium ceiling, medium floor.....Butler=Medium ceiling, medium floor.....Samuel=Low ceiling, medium floor....Campbell=Low ceiling, medium floor....Hall=low ceiling, medium floor. So I have Harry 7th, though closer to 10th than 6th. That said I'd still be ok taking him in round 1 of a rookie draft, but that is more because I think this RB class is a pile of manure, and anybody taking one in the top-4 is just asking to be Biff Tannen.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Colston run down:
Size 6'5" 225 with 88th percentile legnth arms...basically the biggest WR possible
Athleticism 4.5 40 96th percentile speed score, good burst, lower level agility
Dominated in college: Yep, hit the mark at 35% of passing offnse
Breakout age: 19.3 which is great
He's a textbook example of a great WR prospect
ZWK
Footballguy
I doubt the textbook would feature an FCS receiver.
And if it did, they would pick someone a little more dominant. Colston wasn't even clearly the best receiver on his team. Here are the top 6 receiving seasons by a Hofstra player, 2003-2005:
Devale Ellis 2004: 74/1067/13
Marques Colston 2005: 70/975/5
Devale Ellis 2005: 74/943/5
Charles Sullivan 2004: 68/938/7
Marques Colston 2003: 51/910/7
Ricky Bryant 2003: 60/897/3
2003 was Colston's junior year, then he missed 2004 with an injury, and 2005 was his redshirt senior year before entering the 2006 NFL draft.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Not intended to be a slam on Harry either. I actually like Strong and still think if he gets his head straight he can still have an impact at the NFL level. I am just not sure Harry is the type of WR that comes in and dominates right away wherever he is drafted. He has some really good characteristics and would love him to be paired up with a QB that has experience who is willing to throw it up and let him come down with it.
