Chaka
Footballguy
McLaurin's 2025 salary is $19.65 mil
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WR Terry McLaurin, WAS (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Faust
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Da Franchise
Footballguy
To me Sutton took a light deal and DK got overpaid. Give him the Higgins deal. Terry can say “he’s not a number 1 WR” and Peters can say “he’s way younger”. Good compromise.
And I would bet a lot of money the team would give him that deal right now. Problem is from all indications both nationally and locally Terry is not even remotely close to that in his ask. And if true he’s being incredibly unreasonable. They need him to come down first to even start negotiating.
I think he’s a better player than you do but bottom line he will be 31 when this extension kicks in. He’s a contested catch merchant that relies heavily on speed and that’s probably not going to age well.
If he won’t make a real concession so we can start negotiations, I’m calling his bluff. If he wants to pull a Leveon that’s his business, but I’m not trading him for less than a 1st and no one is going to pay that. Sure it hurts the team but so does paying him $35M when he’s 33 and putting up 700 yard seasons.
The only trade that makes any kind of sense to me is to deal him for Tyreek. I recall he asked out earlier and it died down. Would need to understand why his cap number is so high next year first and figure out how to lessen it. Could see that as a win/win and it’s really far-fetched, but that’s the only kinda deal I’d do where it keeps odds of winning this year equal or better. Otherwise, sorry bro not happening.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
That's what I'm saying, he's set to make about $20M and while I understand he is underpaid a little bit, this is not an egregious gap IMHO
Nobody is gonna walk away from $20M and then enter free agency
Plus a young up and coming QB entering his 2nd season that made him look better than he's ever looked at any point in his career
-I don't do it this way often and I'm very supportive of good players like Terry, he's a leader and a professional, I'm not going to take a swipe at him for wanting a trade
I actually think it took a lot for him to come out and request this from the organization
But he's a playing a bad hand right now and has very little leverage.
Holding out isn't gonna help him either
Bottom line...you'll play for $20M and you'll like it daggumit
Not a lot of mercy here
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
And another thing, McLaurin is super reliable but he's not a game changer
Jayden Daniels on the other hand, game changer
Washington is probably about 18-20 months away from having to back the truck up for Daniels unless he majorly regresses, look what TLaw got in Jax, Dak in Dallas
You're fooling yourself if you think Washington wants to commit big dollars to an aging veteran WR
At best they would want to do another 2-3 year deal they can get out of in as little as 1 more season
Put your GM shoes on here, what would you do?
Jayden Daniels on the other hand, game changer
Washington is probably about 18-20 months away from having to back the truck up for Daniels unless he majorly regresses, look what TLaw got in Jax, Dak in Dallas
You're fooling yourself if you think Washington wants to commit big dollars to an aging veteran WR
At best they would want to do another 2-3 year deal they can get out of in as little as 1 more season
Put your GM shoes on here, what would you do?
RenegadeRoy
Footballguy
I don't understand how people see this as Terry being a problem and not ownership. The dude was the only thing bringing fans into the stadium for years. Put up 1000 yard seasons with wack QBs. Good team guy from all I've seen. Now he's gelling with your new all star QB and wants to get paid... but management refuses? Blame the guys holding the purse, not the guy doing the work.
Terpman22
Footballguy
Recency bias.
Dude was on a team that had 29 wins in 5 years. Didn’t say a thing right? Seems like a team player.
Looks around the league and on his own team seeing “lesser guys” get paid more.
NOW, now that team has had success (set multiple NFL records for futility in a championships game but that’s a different convo) and he wants to paid accordingly as being one of the KEY if not THE key contributor of a terrible team for his entire career and it’s funny how quick fans turn on players.
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Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Nobody is blaming TM but put yourself in the FO shoes
This team overall was not that great last season, they got a lot out of their roster with the aid of a rookie QB that took the league by storm/surprise
They went to an NFCC last year, lot of pressure on the FO to push them to the Super Bowl
Anyone think they are actually a Super Bowl team right now?
They have a lot of areas they are going to need to be better in to get where they want with a QB like Daniels
I think there's a decent chance they regress a bit as a team this year and miss the Playoffs all together
What then?
The team needs to keep their options open going into 2026, the clock is ticking on Daniels rookie deal, you must understand it's not about placing blame
oldmanhawkins
Footballguy
I see the same thing and form the opposite conclusion. Washington isn’t paying the QB right now so heLL yeah they should be surrounding the kid with as much talent as they can so he can grow into the best version of himself. If that means paying the super reliable WR1 3years/90 million with 60ish guaranteed and an out just in time to pay Daniels…yes I’d give the man his $$$
Terpman22
Footballguy
Right? Like LOL why trade for Deebo AND pick up his entire salary for 2025 if you’re not going all in?
Chaka
Footballguy
3 years, $85 mil, $54-$56 guaranteed at signing.
Chaka
Footballguy
They picked up one year on Deebo at $15.5 mil guarantee ($17.5 mil total).
BLOCKED_PUNT
Footballguy
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Do tell because i really don't see it
-Look what the Bengals did to Chase and Higgins
Chase had to play Year 4 of his rookie deal, he should have had that signing bonus at the stroke of midnight after Year 3
Higgins had to play on the franchise tag which is decent money but had he gotten seriously hurt would have jeopardized him ever getting a deal
Meanwhile McLaurin is making close to $20M this year, it's not chump change
Next year he will be turning 31 in Sept of the 2026 season, that would be the first year of his new extended contract
Anything Washington does right now won't help in terms of 2025 so i don't see the leverage at the moment
TripItUp
Footballguy
Redskins think they can contend this year and there isn't much after McLaurin at the WR position. He's underpaid and ownership has money...this isn't the Bengals.
Seems like this deal gets done. I'd bet on it.
BLOCKED_PUNT
Footballguy
As a Jaylin Lane owner, I selfishly want a trade but for the team its prob best to try and keep him.
Da Franchise
Footballguy
Oh.
BLOCKED_PUNT
Footballguy
its more like 24 and a half but I'm not that great at math
Terpman22
Footballguy
Do you believe Deebo, if cut this offseason, would get $15M AAV on any contract or even close, considering he has avgd roughly 55/730 the last 3 years?
My point is the Commanders are all in this year and they desperately wanted/needed a WR2 opposite TMac (do they call him this I dunno) which is WHY IMO they traded for him and were willing to pay more than his market should at this point bc yadda yadda chasing a Super Bowl in this super small tiny sliver of a Super Bowl window with the oldest roster in football by a large margin.
Chaka
Footballguy
You can't simply extract his receiving numbers and pretend that tells the story of Deebo's skill set. He has averaged 929 & 7 in 43 games played the last three years (1,102 & 8.3 prorated to 17 games.
$15 mil puts him just ahead of Khalil Shakir and Darnell Mooney and just behind Cooper Kupp. So, yeah I think he would get that.
fatness
Footballguy
If you watch all their games last year you'll see he's certainly been a game changer.
If he doesn't play for them this year watch how their passing game struggles at critical times.
I think he'll sign a new deal this year but not until 1-3 days before the first regular season game.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
I'm simply basing it on this link
Terry McLaurin Contract Details, Salary Cap Charges, Bonus Money, and Contract History | Over The Cap
Terry McLaurin contract and salary cap details, including signing bonus, guaranteed salary, dead money, roster bonuses, and contract history
overthecap.com
Ask around I'm not good at math either
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
I like to hear from the fans who watch all their games, you're a well documented Wash fan, I believe you
Harjiran
Footballguy
I think Washington fans want to see Scary Terry get paid after watching him suffer through so many inept seasons with little supporting talent or competent coaching. I understand the reasoning the new FO seems to be operating under - older WR wanting to get paid, probably not a major part of the team's future, still a good player but not wanting to break the bank for him - however buying some goodwill with fans such as myself might turn out to be a good investment. Three years at $30 mil/year doesn't seem unreasonable and McLaurin is still one of the better WRs in the league. Fans want to see him on the field catching passes from Daniels - so pay the man. The alternative is letting him walk and finding a cheaper replacement, and that might be a bitter pill for fans to swallow.
Terpman22
Footballguy
I think the biggest takeaway from this is just an absolute indictment against the Bengals organization and how they run things. Everyone knows the Brown family is notoriously cheap. Feel using the way they do business vs a guy that literally owns multiple sports teams across multiple professional sports leagues isn’t a real comparison.
As an Eagles fan, I’ve really sort of admired the way Terry has gone about his business. Redskin? Sure. Washington Football team for 2 years? Sure. Commanders? Hell why not!
Now yall making me go stat research and defend Terry and the fact he had to play under that dog crap owner his whole career
2019 Haskins/McCoy/Keenum less than 2900 years passing(net) - 919 receiving yards as a rookie, accounting for over 28.6% of all yards receiving for the year.
2020: Haskins/Alex Smtih/Kyle Allen/Heinicke
29.4% 84/1118/4 sophomore campaign
2021: Heinicke was the guy this year no other QB had more than 209 yards passing this year
28.1%, 77/1053/5
2022: Let’s trade for Carson Wentz! But basically Heinicke and Wentz split the starts this year, and Heinicke outplays Wentz in every efficiency metric,
Terry? 77/1191 accounting for over 31%!
2023: Sam Howell is the guy but he throws 3900 yards and 21 TDS as well as the same amount of INTs, most sacked QB in the NFL and the Commanders win only 4 games. While unlucky, they are lucky enough to be so bad that the only team worse than them is the Chicago Bears, who famously passed on drafting Jalen Carter twice in this season’s draft.
Terry? 1002 yards on 79 catches but only 24 % of yards this season.
2024: JD5: We see it we know it so no need to break it down but the stats.
Career high 13 tds with finally a real QB, previous high: 5. Still over 28% of all receiving yards.
He has way more leverage than some folks think.
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Terpman22
Footballguy
I can however extract those numbers and project how I see him fitting into a Kliff Kingsbury offensive scheme that rarely gives a WR a chance to carry the ball. I guess then it would come down if a person believes Deebo is so dynamic and this will alter a coach like KK into implementing such a “dynamic” player into their offense. I just am not that person.
And then we could also talk about how well Kyle Shanahan coaches offense compared to KK as well, but that would be pointless.
Long way of saying “Good Luck if Deebo is your #1 when you won’t pay or have to trade Terry McLaurin” I guess.
fatness
Footballguy
@Terpman22 numbers, shortened:
2019 Haskins/McCoy/Keenum less than 2900 years passing(net) -
919 receiving yards as a rookie, accounting for over 28.6% of all yards receiving for the year.
2020: Haskins/Alex Smtih/Kyle Allen/Heinicke
29.4% 84/1118/4 sophomore campaign
2021: Heinicke was the guy this year no other QB had more than 209 yards passing this year
28.1%, 77/1053/5
2022: Let’s trade for Carson Wentz! But basically Heinicke and Wentz split the starts this year, and Heinicke outplays Wentz in every efficiency metric,
Terry? 77/1191 accounting for over 31%!
2023: Sam Howell is the guy but he throws 3900 yards and 21 TDS as well as the same amount of INTs, most sacked QB in the NFL and the Commanders win only 4 games. While unlucky, they are lucky enough to be so bad that the only team worse than them is the Chicago Bears, who famously passed on drafting Jalen Carter twice in this season’s draft.
Terry? 1002 yards on 79 catches but only 24 % of yards this season.
2024: JD5: We see it we know it so no need to break it down but the stats.
Career high 13 tds with finally a real QB, previous high: 5. Still over 28% of all receiving yards.
2019 Haskins/McCoy/Keenum less than 2900 years passing(net) -
919 receiving yards as a rookie, accounting for over 28.6% of all yards receiving for the year.
2020: Haskins/Alex Smtih/Kyle Allen/Heinicke
29.4% 84/1118/4 sophomore campaign
2021: Heinicke was the guy this year no other QB had more than 209 yards passing this year
28.1%, 77/1053/5
2022: Let’s trade for Carson Wentz! But basically Heinicke and Wentz split the starts this year, and Heinicke outplays Wentz in every efficiency metric,
Terry? 77/1191 accounting for over 31%!
2023: Sam Howell is the guy but he throws 3900 yards and 21 TDS as well as the same amount of INTs, most sacked QB in the NFL and the Commanders win only 4 games. While unlucky, they are lucky enough to be so bad that the only team worse than them is the Chicago Bears, who famously passed on drafting Jalen Carter twice in this season’s draft.
Terry? 1002 yards on 79 catches but only 24 % of yards this season.
2024: JD5: We see it we know it so no need to break it down but the stats.
Career high 13 tds with finally a real QB, previous high: 5. Still over 28% of all receiving yards.
wgoldsph
Footballguy
They're not in the same situation at all. Sutton has never been "the guy" outside of his sophomore season he's just been "their best guy"
Going back to Sutton- during his career Sutton has one year over 1000 yards, one year of over 70 receptions, and has four years with 4 or less TDs before 10 and 8 in the previous two years respectively.
Point being - put some respect on Terry's name. The man deserves much more than Sutton.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
It’s a contract extension, not a lifetime achievement award.
I know Terry better than Sutton. Hell, Sutton know Terry better than Sutton career-wise.
But this is a business and contract-wise it’s a great comp. All due respect to Mr Terry.
rockaction
Footballguy
I honestly don't think the Sutton comparison is a good one. Not even close to me. That's my football eye and not my fantasy one. McLaurin and Sutton are close in age, granted. They were born twenty-five days apart. Both are going to be 30 very soon. But measuring their performance tells a tale of differing talents. While I don't think stats tell the whole story about football prowess year-in and year-out we can try it regardless.
A caveat to everyone before we delve into the statistics: there's so much happening in football that doesn’t involve the individual player you're trying to measure that you can't really isolate any one statistic and say, "This is it." If you could easily compare receivers, then I'd say to go ahead and look at certain descriptive statistics, but identifying which ones tell an accurate story is often a fool’s errand leading to a conclusion that is fool’s gold.
That said, we can try to see some things—like significant disparities or patterns that tell us about the players’ comparative talents or, in this case, one strikingly disparate facet of their games that when looked at it in conjunction with the other statistics is solid evidence of one player being superior to the other, not only in that facet of the game but also overall. Here, as you’ll see below, Terry McLaurin’s YAC (yards after catch) and other key stats are evidence of him being a much different and also better overall receiver than Courtland Sutton.
Here we go:
Terry McLaurin (hereinafter "Terry") has played 97 games to Courtland Sutton's 98, which is very similar. But Terry started all those games, whereas Sutton did not, which skews the stats but is a mark in Terry's favor. He won a starting job out of training camp as a rookie and started right away, never looking back.
Here are some career comparisons: Terry's career receiving yards total 6379 while Sutton has 5340 yards, giving Terry the advantage by 1,039. Terry has 81 more receptions than Sutton, 460 to 379. Terry has 80 more targets than Sutton, 726-646. He has a catch rate that is 4.7% higher than Sutton's, (63.4% to 58.7%), although Sutton's aDOT is .7 yards higher (13.0 to Terry's 12.3). Terry's drop rate is a minuscule 3.3% to Sutton's 6.2%. Terry's quarterback's passer rating when targeting Terry is over 100.3 while Sutton's QB's passer rating when targeting Sutton is 88.4. Terry has 900 more YAC with 2048 while Sutton sits at 1144. In addition, Terry has a very good +/- xYAC (average YAC greater or less than the expected YAC) of about 2 yards, while Sutton hovers around 0 yards or even negative yards.
Terry's cumulative AV, or Approximate Value, a stat developed by FBG's own Doug Drinen (not sure if he's still here), is 53 and Sutton's is 43, which is a ten-point difference. His weighted AV is 47 to Sutton's 39 for a nine-point difference.
-Terry has been to two Pro Bowls, one in 2022 and one in 2024, and was Second Team All-Pro in 2024. He was on the All-Rookie team in 2019, and he has been honored by being named as one of the NFL's top 100 players in 2023 (#94) and 2024 (#97)
-Sutton has been to the Pro Bowl once (2019)
Here's the source for those.
stathead.com
Here are their receptions each year for 2019-2024, minus 2020 because Sutton only played one game before his season ended in an injury. It should be noted that Terry had 87 in 2020, the most in his career. In 2018, Sutton had 42. In 2020, Sutton had 3 before getting hurt in the first or second game of the season. I'm using six seasons (2019-2024) to look at a comparable five-year stretch of actual football.
2019 McLaurin/Sutton 58/74 receptions
2021 McLaurin/Sutton 77/58
2022 McLaurin/Sutton 77/64
2023 McLaurin/Sutton 79/59
2024 McLaurin/Sutton 82/81
Source: Pro Football Reference (links to 2024 but you can adjust the year)
www.pro-football-reference.com
As far as a percentage of each player’s team's targets, since McLaurin has been in the league (and without 2020), these are McLaurin's and Sutton's target shares and total targets over the past six years:
2019 McLaurin/Sutton 20.0% to 25.8% target share and 93 to 124 total targets
2021 McLaurin/Sutton 24.3% to 18.9% and 130 to 98
2022 McLaurin/Sutton 22.6% to 20.1% and 120 to 109
2023 McLaurin/Sutton 22.0% to 18.9% and 132 to 90
2024 McLaurin/Sutton 23.2% to 24.6% and 117 to 135
In 2020, Terry had a target share of 25.4% and 134 total targets, both career highs.
Here's the source for that (it links to 2019, but you can adjust the year)
www.fantasypros.com
In sum, it looks like Terry's AV is significantly better, and he has 1,000 more receiving yards in a shorter career because he has 900 more yards after the catch. His catch rate is about 5 points better, and his drop rate is about 3 points better. His QB’s rating when he is targeted is 12 points better, and he has more targets over the six years measured above (2019-2024) with a better average percentage of his team's targets in that same timespan. He has more receptions during the five measured years above.
The stats do paint a picture here, and they clearly show Terry as a better runner after the catch by a significant amount. There’s your difference in these guys, and our eyes can see it (mine can). Terry is shorter, shiftier and better in the open field. Sutton is average to below-average in that aspect of the game.
The entire statistical comparison of performance provides enough evidence to me that I think we can say that it doesn't seem like they’re interchangeable in talent nor does there seem to be a close comparison regarding overall value. Although some categories are close (air yard market share, total air yards, and age), Terry McLaurin has been significantly better at nearly everything statistics can measure than Courtland Sutton. I’d expect to see a salary commensurate with these numbers, and with Sutton's new deal and their talent disparity in mind, I'd expect to see a new deal for Terry that is comparatively larger by a decent amount. We'll see if the NFL agrees.
(I used NFL Next Gen Stats to draw those conclusions about air yards and +/- x YAC.)
eta* Terry should use this if they try and use Sutton as a comparison to set a market value for his contract. That would be funny (and rule).
A caveat to everyone before we delve into the statistics: there's so much happening in football that doesn’t involve the individual player you're trying to measure that you can't really isolate any one statistic and say, "This is it." If you could easily compare receivers, then I'd say to go ahead and look at certain descriptive statistics, but identifying which ones tell an accurate story is often a fool’s errand leading to a conclusion that is fool’s gold.
That said, we can try to see some things—like significant disparities or patterns that tell us about the players’ comparative talents or, in this case, one strikingly disparate facet of their games that when looked at it in conjunction with the other statistics is solid evidence of one player being superior to the other, not only in that facet of the game but also overall. Here, as you’ll see below, Terry McLaurin’s YAC (yards after catch) and other key stats are evidence of him being a much different and also better overall receiver than Courtland Sutton.
Here we go:
Terry McLaurin (hereinafter "Terry") has played 97 games to Courtland Sutton's 98, which is very similar. But Terry started all those games, whereas Sutton did not, which skews the stats but is a mark in Terry's favor. He won a starting job out of training camp as a rookie and started right away, never looking back.
Here are some career comparisons: Terry's career receiving yards total 6379 while Sutton has 5340 yards, giving Terry the advantage by 1,039. Terry has 81 more receptions than Sutton, 460 to 379. Terry has 80 more targets than Sutton, 726-646. He has a catch rate that is 4.7% higher than Sutton's, (63.4% to 58.7%), although Sutton's aDOT is .7 yards higher (13.0 to Terry's 12.3). Terry's drop rate is a minuscule 3.3% to Sutton's 6.2%. Terry's quarterback's passer rating when targeting Terry is over 100.3 while Sutton's QB's passer rating when targeting Sutton is 88.4. Terry has 900 more YAC with 2048 while Sutton sits at 1144. In addition, Terry has a very good +/- xYAC (average YAC greater or less than the expected YAC) of about 2 yards, while Sutton hovers around 0 yards or even negative yards.
Terry's cumulative AV, or Approximate Value, a stat developed by FBG's own Doug Drinen (not sure if he's still here), is 53 and Sutton's is 43, which is a ten-point difference. His weighted AV is 47 to Sutton's 39 for a nine-point difference.
-Terry has been to two Pro Bowls, one in 2022 and one in 2024, and was Second Team All-Pro in 2024. He was on the All-Rookie team in 2019, and he has been honored by being named as one of the NFL's top 100 players in 2023 (#94) and 2024 (#97)
-Sutton has been to the Pro Bowl once (2019)
Here's the source for those.
Courtland Sutton vs. Terry McLaurin: Head-to-Head Stats Comparison | Stathead.com
Compare Players: Check out the head-to-head stats of Courtland Sutton and Terry McLaurin including their awards, honors, championships, playoff and regular season stats, and much more on Stathead.com
stathead.com
Here are their receptions each year for 2019-2024, minus 2020 because Sutton only played one game before his season ended in an injury. It should be noted that Terry had 87 in 2020, the most in his career. In 2018, Sutton had 42. In 2020, Sutton had 3 before getting hurt in the first or second game of the season. I'm using six seasons (2019-2024) to look at a comparable five-year stretch of actual football.
2019 McLaurin/Sutton 58/74 receptions
2021 McLaurin/Sutton 77/58
2022 McLaurin/Sutton 77/64
2023 McLaurin/Sutton 79/59
2024 McLaurin/Sutton 82/81
Source: Pro Football Reference (links to 2024 but you can adjust the year)
2024 NFL Advanced Receiving | Pro-Football-Reference.com
Check out the 2024 NFL Advanced Receiving Stats and more on Pro-football-reference.com
www.pro-football-reference.com
As far as a percentage of each player’s team's targets, since McLaurin has been in the league (and without 2020), these are McLaurin's and Sutton's target shares and total targets over the past six years:
2019 McLaurin/Sutton 20.0% to 25.8% target share and 93 to 124 total targets
2021 McLaurin/Sutton 24.3% to 18.9% and 130 to 98
2022 McLaurin/Sutton 22.6% to 20.1% and 120 to 109
2023 McLaurin/Sutton 22.0% to 18.9% and 132 to 90
2024 McLaurin/Sutton 23.2% to 24.6% and 117 to 135
In 2020, Terry had a target share of 25.4% and 134 total targets, both career highs.
Here's the source for that (it links to 2019, but you can adjust the year)
2019 Advanced Wide Receiver Stats | NFL Metrics | FantasyPros
View 2019 Advanced Wide Receiver Stats including Yards After Catch, Average Depth of Targets, Catchable Passes, and more. See how WRs perform across the NFL's key metrics.
www.fantasypros.com
In sum, it looks like Terry's AV is significantly better, and he has 1,000 more receiving yards in a shorter career because he has 900 more yards after the catch. His catch rate is about 5 points better, and his drop rate is about 3 points better. His QB’s rating when he is targeted is 12 points better, and he has more targets over the six years measured above (2019-2024) with a better average percentage of his team's targets in that same timespan. He has more receptions during the five measured years above.
The stats do paint a picture here, and they clearly show Terry as a better runner after the catch by a significant amount. There’s your difference in these guys, and our eyes can see it (mine can). Terry is shorter, shiftier and better in the open field. Sutton is average to below-average in that aspect of the game.
The entire statistical comparison of performance provides enough evidence to me that I think we can say that it doesn't seem like they’re interchangeable in talent nor does there seem to be a close comparison regarding overall value. Although some categories are close (air yard market share, total air yards, and age), Terry McLaurin has been significantly better at nearly everything statistics can measure than Courtland Sutton. I’d expect to see a salary commensurate with these numbers, and with Sutton's new deal and their talent disparity in mind, I'd expect to see a new deal for Terry that is comparatively larger by a decent amount. We'll see if the NFL agrees.
(I used NFL Next Gen Stats to draw those conclusions about air yards and +/- x YAC.)
eta* Terry should use this if they try and use Sutton as a comparison to set a market value for his contract. That would be funny (and rule).
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-OZ-
Footballguy
On the surface the 49ers seems ideal.
Not sure what it would take, and contenders don’t usually trade their top receiver (chiefs aside).
zamboni
Footballguy
I agree that I doubt a trade happens given that the team is on the rise and McLaurin is their best receiving option - and just a very good football player.
No doubt the Commanders know his value, and McLaurin knows that they know this. Can't blame a guy for trying to use any leverage he can get when he knows that on the verge of 30, this may be his last big contract. His value is indeed probably being a bit inflated - although probably more so by the fantasy community than the Commanders - by his outsized 13 TD season.
At the end of the day, I think both sides come to terms with a contract extension before the season ends. Nothing too outrageous, but enough to satisfy both sides.
No doubt the Commanders know his value, and McLaurin knows that they know this. Can't blame a guy for trying to use any leverage he can get when he knows that on the verge of 30, this may be his last big contract. His value is indeed probably being a bit inflated - although probably more so by the fantasy community than the Commanders - by his outsized 13 TD season.
At the end of the day, I think both sides come to terms with a contract extension before the season ends. Nothing too outrageous, but enough to satisfy both sides.
Uruk-Hai
Footballguy
McLaurin can hold out and Washington will almost certainly be worse. That's his leverage, other than some PR stuff. The downside to this is watching his bank account shrink. And, if it goes all season, he's gained nothing because he'll be in the same boat in 2026.
Washington holds more cards, but they are also at risk. If they trade him, they will not get equal value back because McLaurin's not gonna all of a sudden forget he wants an extension with the team he gets traded to. Other teams know this and will offer accordingly. Plus, they aren't as good without him as they are with him.
Anyway, I think all of the drama is a little overblown. We've seen this dance enough over recent years to know that this is just another step in the process.
Washington holds more cards, but they are also at risk. If they trade him, they will not get equal value back because McLaurin's not gonna all of a sudden forget he wants an extension with the team he gets traded to. Other teams know this and will offer accordingly. Plus, they aren't as good without him as they are with him.
Anyway, I think all of the drama is a little overblown. We've seen this dance enough over recent years to know that this is just another step in the process.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
wgoldsph
Footballguy
One of the things I love about this forum is I can poorly argue a point and someone will back me up later with actual information.I honestly don't think the Sutton comp is a good one. Not even close to me. That's my football eye and not my fantasy one. They're close in age, granted. They were born twenty-five days apart. Both are going to be 30 very soon. But measuring their performance tells a tale of differing talents. While I don't think stats tell the whole story about football prowess year-in and year-out we can try it regardless.
A caveat to everyone before we delve in: there's so much happening in football that isn't about the individual player you're trying to measure that you can't really isolate any one statistic and say, "This is it." If you could with receivers, I'd say to do it, but it’s sort of a fool’s errand. But we can try to see some things—like significant disparities or patterns that tell us about the players’ talent or, in this case, facet of the game that is so different that it shows one player to be superior to the other in a particular way or in an overall sense. In this case, as you’ll see below, Terry McLaurin’s YAC (yards after catch) and other statistics are evidence of him being a much different and also better overall receiver than Courtland Sutton.
Here we go:
Terry McLaurin (hereinafter "Terry") has played 97 games to Courtland Sutton's 98, which is very similar. But Terry started all those games, whereas Sutton did not, which skews the stats but is a mark in Terry's favor. He won a starting job out of training camp as a rookie and started right away, never looking back.
Here are some career comparisons: Terry's career receiving yards total 6379 while Sutton has 5340 yards, giving Terry the advantage by 1,039. Terry has 81 more receptions than Sutton, 460 to 379. Terry has 80 more targets than Sutton, 726-646. He has a catch rate that is 4.7% higher than Sutton's, (63.4% to 58.7%), although Sutton's aDOT is .7 yards higher (13.0 to Terry's 12.3). Terry's drop rate is a minuscule 3.3% to Sutton's 6.2%. Terry's quarterback's passer rating when targeting Terry is over 100.3, Sutton's QB's passer rating when targeting Sutton is 88.4. Terry has 900 more YAC with 2048 while Sutton sits around 1144. In addition, he has a very good +/- xYAC (average YAC greater or less than the expected YAC) of 2 yards, while Sutton hovers around 0 yards or even negative yards.
Terry's cumulative AV, or Approximate Value, a stat developed by FBG's own Doug Drinen (Not sure if he's still here), is 53 and Sutton's is 43, a ten-point difference. His weighted AV is 47 to Sutton's 39 for a nine-point difference.
-Terry has been to two Pro Bowls, one in 2022 and one in 2024, and was Second Team All-Pro in 2024. He was on the All-Rookie team in 2019, and he has been honored by being named as one of the NFL's top 100 players in 2023 (#94) and 2024 (#97)
-Sutton has been to the Pro Bowl once (2019)
Here's the source for those.
Courtland Sutton vs. Terry McLaurin: Head-to-Head Stats Comparison | Stathead.com
Compare Players: Check out the head-to-head stats of Courtland Sutton and Terry McLaurin including their awards, honors, championships, playoff and regular season stats, and much more on Stathead.com
Here are their receptions each year for 2019-2024, minus 2020 because Sutton only played one game before his season ended in an injury. It should be noted that Terry had 87 in 2020, the most in his career. In 2018, Sutton had 42. In 2020, Sutton had 3 before getting hurt in the first or second game of the season. I'm using these six years to look at a comparable timeframe.
2019 McLaurin/Sutton 58/74 receptions
2021 McLaurin/Sutton 77/58
2022 McLaurin/Sutton 77/64
2023 McLaurin/Sutton 79/59
2024 McLaurin/Sutton 82/81
Source: Pro Football Reference (links to 2024 but you can adjust the year)
2024 NFL Advanced Receiving | Pro-Football-Reference.com
Check out the 2024 NFL Advanced Receiving Stats and more on Pro-football-reference.com
As far as a percentage of each player’s team's targets, since McLaurin has been in the league (and without 2020), these are McLaurin's and Sutton's target shares and total targets over the past six years:
2019 McLaurin/Sutton 20.0% to 25.8% target share and 93 to 124 total targets
2021 McLaurin/Sutton 24.3% to 18.9% and 130 to 98
2022 McLaurin/Sutton 22.6% to 20.1% and 120 to 109
2023 McLaurin/Sutton 22.0% to 18.9% and 132 to 90
2024 McLaurin/Sutton 23.2% to 24.6% and 117 to 135
In 2020, Terry had a target share of 25.4% and 134 total targets, both career highs.
Here's the source for that (it links to 2019, but you can adjust the year)
2019 Advanced Wide Receiver Stats | NFL Metrics | FantasyPros
View 2019 Advanced Wide Receiver Stats including Yards After Catch, Average Depth of Targets, Catchable Passes, and more. See how WRs perform across the NFL's key metrics.
In sum, it looks like Terry's AV is significantly better, and he has 1,000 more receiving yards in a shorter career because he has 900 more yards after the catch. His catch rate is about 5 points better, and his drop rate is about 3 points better. His QB’s rating when he is targeted is 12 points better, and he has more targets over the six years measured above (2019-2024) with a better average percentage of his team's targets in that same timespan. He has more receptions during the five measured years above.
The stats do paint a picture here, and they clearly show Terry as a better runner after the catch by a significant amount. There’s your difference in these guys, and our eyes can see it (mine can). Terry is shorter, shiftier and better in the open field. Sutton is average to below-average in that aspect of the game.
The entire statistical comparison of performance provides enough evidence to me that I think we can say that it doesn't seem like they’re interchangeable in talent nor does there seem to be a close comparison regarding overall value. Although some categories are close (air yard market share, total air yards, and age), Terry McLaurin has been significantly better at nearly everything statistics can measure than Courtland Sutton. I’d expect to see a salary commensurate with these numbers, and with Sutton's new deal and their talent disparity in mind, I'd expect to see one that is comparatively larger by a decent amount. We'll see if the NFL agrees.
(I used NFL Next Gen Stats to draw those conclusions about air yards and +/- x YAC.)
eta* Terry should use this if they try and use Sutton as a comparison to set a market value for his contract. That would be funny (and rule).
Yogibear
Footballguy
It only makes sense for him to go San Francisco. I can definitely see the chemistry he would have with Brock Purdy. And it only makes sense since the Commanders got Deebo earlier this year. You can't have two No. 1 receivers on the same team at the same time. Too many egos. I think he and Brandon Aiyuk would make a great receiver tandem, since Aiyuk is more of a No. 2 wideout. Just imagine if the 49ers got Terry McLaurin than they would definitely be more of a favorite to win the Super Bowl. Plus, they got George Kittle at tight end. Who does Washington have at tight end? Zach Ertz? He hasn't been great in years. So, it only makes sense for Terry McLaurin to go to the 49ers before the season. Am I right?
markrc99
Footballguy
This definitely speaks to me. I don't know the exact circumstance, but it's typical that a player playing in the last year of a contract is playing without any of it guaranteed. He hasn't earned something better than that? He's an asset on & off the field & in that locker room! He deserves nothing less than what DK Metcalf got. Disclosure: this player is a mid-round keeper candidate on all three of my teams.
We know the team did shop DT Daron Payne, (their highest salaried player) prior to the draft. But they have the money & cap space, have no idea what they're doing. We know the team did shop DT Daron Payne, (their highest salaried player) prior to the draft. He's the guy they're paying who hasn't been a difference-maker. The player willing to lump the coal w/o a deal is Brian Robinson jr. To me his 3-down skillset is underrated.
Certainly seems they're moving on from him. Jacory Croskey-Merritt, a.k.a. Bill, doesn't really feature that low anchor, wide base trait I like. But he's a late round, long-shot target of mine.
pinkstapler
Footballguy
I dunno why, but this made me laugh really hard this morning. Probably because it's harsh, but it's also just flat out true. Paying Terry for sticking it out through Snyder years and all around terribleness is a feel good thought, but not really how businesses operate. Imagine the GM letting that quote rip in a presser though... oh man would it do numbers on social media.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Doubt this ends any other way than him being in a WAS jersey when the season starts, but would love to see him in a Chargers uniform if it continues to escalate.
ffmail4me
Footballguy
I do think management needs to think about what this says to his teammates and future free agents. Terry has been the model citizen and face of the franchise. He balled out last year and now they don’t seem to want to pay him what he’s worth. Not a good look and I’m sure that’s somewhat deflating for his teammates as well.
Insein
Footballguy
Exactly. This isn't an isolated contract based on a guys age and productivity. This is your alpha WR who showed what he can do with a good QB finally after years of loyalty. You might as well put up a sign that says "we only want mercenaries".
pinkstapler
Footballguy
"Mike Evans, who owns a much longer streak of 1,000-yard campaigns, hit free agency in advance of his age-31 season in 2024 and landed only a two-year deal worth $41 million. Adjusting for the rise in the salary cap, that would be the equivalent of $22.4 million per year in 2025 money.
Calvin Ridley, who was one year younger than Evans when he hit free agency in 2024, signed with the Titans for four years and $92 million, averaging $23 million per season. Throwing out the unguaranteed portions, his contract is more realistically a two-year, $48 million pact, which would be worth $26.2 million per year in the current cap landscape. Players past their third contracts -- like Adams ($22 million per season), Stefon Diggs ($21.2 million), and Cooper Kupp ($15 million) -- all failed to land more than Ridley in average salary this offseason, even with the cap increase. All three are 31 or older.
McLaurin's case also took a hit this week when Broncos wideout Courtland Sutton, who turns 30 in October, signed an extension in a similar price range. Sutton's deal was a four-year, $92 million pact, averaging $23 million. The full details aren't available, but it doesn't look to offer much in the way of significant long-term guarantees; according to ESPN's Adam Schefter, Sutton was guaranteed the $14 million he was already set to receive in 2025 and got $27 million more in guarantees on the extension, suggesting he is really looking at a two-year, $41 million pact. In other words, that's essentially what Evans received last year."
ESPN article on the whole debacle
I think Terry is worth more than he's currently making. I also don't think he deserves $33mil a year. Or even close to that tbh. As far as DK, I more or less side with their take on this too.
"The two big differences have nothing to do with their on-field production. One is age: Metcalf is more than two years younger than McLaurin, having entered the league as a 21-year-old. The other is leverage. When the Steelers decided to trade a second-round pick for Metcalf, he had the leverage to ask for a significant extension as part of that deal, since Pittsburgh wouldn't have been inclined to trade a significant pick for such a talented player and then lose him for nothing the following year in free agency." Terry doesn't have that leverage.
$25-28mil a year seems to be the range, if not on the high side of that range. And I can't find the source now, so it might not even be true, but I had read the Commanders offered him a $27mil a year deal and that was what prompted this most recent trade request. If that is true, I would be pretty much off my "feeling bad for Terry" stance.
Calvin Ridley, who was one year younger than Evans when he hit free agency in 2024, signed with the Titans for four years and $92 million, averaging $23 million per season. Throwing out the unguaranteed portions, his contract is more realistically a two-year, $48 million pact, which would be worth $26.2 million per year in the current cap landscape. Players past their third contracts -- like Adams ($22 million per season), Stefon Diggs ($21.2 million), and Cooper Kupp ($15 million) -- all failed to land more than Ridley in average salary this offseason, even with the cap increase. All three are 31 or older.
McLaurin's case also took a hit this week when Broncos wideout Courtland Sutton, who turns 30 in October, signed an extension in a similar price range. Sutton's deal was a four-year, $92 million pact, averaging $23 million. The full details aren't available, but it doesn't look to offer much in the way of significant long-term guarantees; according to ESPN's Adam Schefter, Sutton was guaranteed the $14 million he was already set to receive in 2025 and got $27 million more in guarantees on the extension, suggesting he is really looking at a two-year, $41 million pact. In other words, that's essentially what Evans received last year."
ESPN article on the whole debacle
I think Terry is worth more than he's currently making. I also don't think he deserves $33mil a year. Or even close to that tbh. As far as DK, I more or less side with their take on this too.
"The two big differences have nothing to do with their on-field production. One is age: Metcalf is more than two years younger than McLaurin, having entered the league as a 21-year-old. The other is leverage. When the Steelers decided to trade a second-round pick for Metcalf, he had the leverage to ask for a significant extension as part of that deal, since Pittsburgh wouldn't have been inclined to trade a significant pick for such a talented player and then lose him for nothing the following year in free agency." Terry doesn't have that leverage.
$25-28mil a year seems to be the range, if not on the high side of that range. And I can't find the source now, so it might not even be true, but I had read the Commanders offered him a $27mil a year deal and that was what prompted this most recent trade request. If that is true, I would be pretty much off my "feeling bad for Terry" stance.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
If that was the case, I would agree as that seems pretty reasonable for his age and production. These typically work out in the end and I would guess they come to an agreement soon.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I ain’t reading all that.I honestly don't think the Sutton comparison is a good one. Not even close to me. That's my football eye and not my fantasy one. McLaurin and Sutton are close in age, granted. They were born twenty-five days apart. Both are going to be 30 very soon. But measuring their performance tells a tale of differing talents. While I don't think stats tell the whole story about football prowess year-in and year-out we can try it regardless.
A caveat to everyone before we delve into the statistics: there's so much happening in football that doesn’t involve the individual player you're trying to measure that you can't really isolate any one statistic and say, "This is it." If you could easily compare receivers, then I'd say to go ahead and look at certain descriptive statistics, but identifying which ones tell an accurate story is often a fool’s errand leading to a conclusion that is fool’s gold.
That said, we can try to see some things—like significant disparities or patterns that tell us about the players’ comparative talents or, in this case, one strikingly disparate facet of their games that when looked at it in conjunction with the other statistics is solid evidence of one player being superior to the other, not only in that facet of the game but also overall. Here, as you’ll see below, Terry McLaurin’s YAC (yards after catch) and other key stats are evidence of him being a much different and also better overall receiver than Courtland Sutton.
Here we go:
Terry McLaurin (hereinafter "Terry") has played 97 games to Courtland Sutton's 98, which is very similar. But Terry started all those games, whereas Sutton did not, which skews the stats but is a mark in Terry's favor. He won a starting job out of training camp as a rookie and started right away, never looking back.
Here are some career comparisons: Terry's career receiving yards total 6379 while Sutton has 5340 yards, giving Terry the advantage by 1,039. Terry has 81 more receptions than Sutton, 460 to 379. Terry has 80 more targets than Sutton, 726-646. He has a catch rate that is 4.7% higher than Sutton's, (63.4% to 58.7%), although Sutton's aDOT is .7 yards higher (13.0 to Terry's 12.3). Terry's drop rate is a minuscule 3.3% to Sutton's 6.2%. Terry's quarterback's passer rating when targeting Terry is over 100.3 while Sutton's QB's passer rating when targeting Sutton is 88.4. Terry has 900 more YAC with 2048 while Sutton sits at 1144. In addition, Terry has a very good +/- xYAC (average YAC greater or less than the expected YAC) of about 2 yards, while Sutton hovers around 0 yards or even negative yards.
Terry's cumulative AV, or Approximate Value, a stat developed by FBG's own Doug Drinen (not sure if he's still here), is 53 and Sutton's is 43, which is a ten-point difference. His weighted AV is 47 to Sutton's 39 for a nine-point difference.
-Terry has been to two Pro Bowls, one in 2022 and one in 2024, and was Second Team All-Pro in 2024. He was on the All-Rookie team in 2019, and he has been honored by being named as one of the NFL's top 100 players in 2023 (#94) and 2024 (#97)
-Sutton has been to the Pro Bowl once (2019)
Here's the source for those.
Courtland Sutton vs. Terry McLaurin: Head-to-Head Stats Comparison | Stathead.com
Compare Players: Check out the head-to-head stats of Courtland Sutton and Terry McLaurin including their awards, honors, championships, playoff and regular season stats, and much more on Stathead.com
Here are their receptions each year for 2019-2024, minus 2020 because Sutton only played one game before his season ended in an injury. It should be noted that Terry had 87 in 2020, the most in his career. In 2018, Sutton had 42. In 2020, Sutton had 3 before getting hurt in the first or second game of the season. I'm using six seasons (2019-2024) to look at a comparable five-year stretch of actual football.
2019 McLaurin/Sutton 58/74 receptions
2021 McLaurin/Sutton 77/58
2022 McLaurin/Sutton 77/64
2023 McLaurin/Sutton 79/59
2024 McLaurin/Sutton 82/81
Source: Pro Football Reference (links to 2024 but you can adjust the year)
2024 NFL Advanced Receiving | Pro-Football-Reference.com
Check out the 2024 NFL Advanced Receiving Stats and more on Pro-football-reference.com
As far as a percentage of each player’s team's targets, since McLaurin has been in the league (and without 2020), these are McLaurin's and Sutton's target shares and total targets over the past six years:
2019 McLaurin/Sutton 20.0% to 25.8% target share and 93 to 124 total targets
2021 McLaurin/Sutton 24.3% to 18.9% and 130 to 98
2022 McLaurin/Sutton 22.6% to 20.1% and 120 to 109
2023 McLaurin/Sutton 22.0% to 18.9% and 132 to 90
2024 McLaurin/Sutton 23.2% to 24.6% and 117 to 135
In 2020, Terry had a target share of 25.4% and 134 total targets, both career highs.
Here's the source for that (it links to 2019, but you can adjust the year)
2019 Advanced Wide Receiver Stats | NFL Metrics | FantasyPros
View 2019 Advanced Wide Receiver Stats including Yards After Catch, Average Depth of Targets, Catchable Passes, and more. See how WRs perform across the NFL's key metrics.
In sum, it looks like Terry's AV is significantly better, and he has 1,000 more receiving yards in a shorter career because he has 900 more yards after the catch. His catch rate is about 5 points better, and his drop rate is about 3 points better. His QB’s rating when he is targeted is 12 points better, and he has more targets over the six years measured above (2019-2024) with a better average percentage of his team's targets in that same timespan. He has more receptions during the five measured years above.
The stats do paint a picture here, and they clearly show Terry as a better runner after the catch by a significant amount. There’s your difference in these guys, and our eyes can see it (mine can). Terry is shorter, shiftier and better in the open field. Sutton is average to below-average in that aspect of the game.
The entire statistical comparison of performance provides enough evidence to me that I think we can say that it doesn't seem like they’re interchangeable in talent nor does there seem to be a close comparison regarding overall value. Although some categories are close (air yard market share, total air yards, and age), Terry McLaurin has been significantly better at nearly everything statistics can measure than Courtland Sutton. I’d expect to see a salary commensurate with these numbers, and with Sutton's new deal and their talent disparity in mind, I'd expect to see a new deal for Terry that is comparatively larger by a decent amount. We'll see if the NFL agrees.
(I used NFL Next Gen Stats to draw those conclusions about air yards and +/- x YAC.)
eta* Terry should use this if they try and use Sutton as a comparison to set a market value for his contract. That would be funny (and rule).
I’m happy for u tho
Or sorry that happened
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I’m a SF Giants fan. They were the masters of the “reward for past performance” contracts. Every one of those burned them bad.
It’s just a bad way to do business.
