WR Terry McLaurin, WAS (2 Viewers)

[oldmanhawkins]

It’s a contract extension, not a lifetime achievement award.

I dunno why, but this made me laugh really hard this morning. Probably because it's harsh, but it's also just flat out true. Paying Terry for sticking it out through Snyder years and all around terribleness is a feel good thought, but not really how businesses operate. Imagine the GM letting that quote rip in a presser though... oh man would it do numbers on social media.

I’m a SF Giants fan. They were the masters of the “reward for past performance” contracts. Every one of those burned them bad.

It’s just a bad way to do business.

The Eagles have done this for core players. Kelce, Cox, more recently, Saquan. They've also shown that if you aren't a core player they'll ship you out and replace you in a heartbeat like CJGJ. I think it is only a bad business decision if you fail to identify your core players.

 

[Willie Mays Hayes]

He has far more leverage than some of you believe. They have playoff aspirations and he is a huge part of it.
Outside of Daniels, he is their top weapon and it's not even close. Run game is below average. Ertz is old old old and Deebo is a shell of himself.

I am in total alignment with this take. If Terry gets an additional 2 years of contract term and more guaranteed money then this will have been worth it. It is likely the last time in his NFL career where he’ll have leverage. Why not use it before it is permanently gone?

 

[rockaction]

I honestly don't think the Sutton comparison is a good one. Not even close to me. That's my football eye and not my fantasy one. McLaurin and Sutton are close in age, granted. They were born twenty-five days apart. Both are going to be 30 very soon. But measuring their performance tells a tale of differing talents. While I don't think stats tell the whole story about football prowess year-in and year-out we can try it regardless.

A caveat to everyone before we delve into the statistics: there's so much happening in football that doesn’t involve the individual player you're trying to measure that you can't really isolate any one statistic and say, "This is it." If you could easily compare receivers, then I'd say to go ahead and look at certain descriptive statistics, but identifying which ones tell an accurate story is often a fool’s errand leading to a conclusion that is fool’s gold.

That said, we can try to see some things—like significant disparities or patterns that tell us about the players’ comparative talents or, in this case, one strikingly disparate facet of their games that when looked at it in conjunction with the other statistics is solid evidence of one player being superior to the other, not only in that facet of the game but also overall. Here, as you’ll see below, Terry McLaurin’s YAC (yards after catch) and other key stats are evidence of him being a much different and also better overall receiver than Courtland Sutton.

Here we go:

Terry McLaurin (hereinafter "Terry") has played 97 games to Courtland Sutton's 98, which is very similar. But Terry started all those games, whereas Sutton did not, which skews the stats but is a mark in Terry's favor. He won a starting job out of training camp as a rookie and started right away, never looking back.

Here are some career comparisons: Terry's career receiving yards total 6379 while Sutton has 5340 yards, giving Terry the advantage by 1,039. Terry has 81 more receptions than Sutton, 460 to 379. Terry has 80 more targets than Sutton, 726-646. He has a catch rate that is 4.7% higher than Sutton's, (63.4% to 58.7%), although Sutton's aDOT is .7 yards higher (13.0 to Terry's 12.3). Terry's drop rate is a minuscule 3.3% to Sutton's 6.2%. Terry's quarterback's passer rating when targeting Terry is over 100.3 while Sutton's QB's passer rating when targeting Sutton is 88.4. Terry has 900 more YAC with 2048 while Sutton sits at 1144. In addition, Terry has a very good +/- xYAC (average YAC greater or less than the expected YAC) of about 2 yards, while Sutton hovers around 0 yards or even negative yards.

Terry's cumulative AV, or Approximate Value, a stat developed by FBG's own Doug Drinen (not sure if he's still here), is 53 and Sutton's is 43, which is a ten-point difference. His weighted AV is 47 to Sutton's 39 for a nine-point difference.

-Terry has been to two Pro Bowls, one in 2022 and one in 2024, and was Second Team All-Pro in 2024. He was on the All-Rookie team in 2019, and he has been honored by being named as one of the NFL's top 100 players in 2023 (#94) and 2024 (#97)
-Sutton has been to the Pro Bowl once (2019)

Here's the source for those.

Courtland Sutton vs. Terry McLaurin: Head-to-Head Stats Comparison | Stathead.com

Compare Players: Check out the head-to-head stats of Courtland Sutton and Terry McLaurin including their awards, honors, championships, playoff and regular season stats, and much more on Stathead.com

stathead.com

Here are their receptions each year for 2019-2024, minus 2020 because Sutton only played one game before his season ended in an injury. It should be noted that Terry had 87 in 2020, the most in his career. In 2018, Sutton had 42. In 2020, Sutton had 3 before getting hurt in the first or second game of the season. I'm using six seasons (2019-2024) to look at a comparable five-year stretch of actual football.

2019 McLaurin/Sutton 58/74 receptions
2021 McLaurin/Sutton 77/58
2022 McLaurin/Sutton 77/64
2023 McLaurin/Sutton 79/59
2024 McLaurin/Sutton 82/81

Source: Pro Football Reference (links to 2024 but you can adjust the year)

2024 NFL Advanced Receiving | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Check out the 2024 NFL Advanced Receiving Stats and more on Pro-football-reference.com

www.pro-football-reference.com

As far as a percentage of each player’s team's targets, since McLaurin has been in the league (and without 2020), these are McLaurin's and Sutton's target shares and total targets over the past six years:

2019 McLaurin/Sutton 20.0% to 25.8% target share and 93 to 124 total targets
2021 McLaurin/Sutton 24.3% to 18.9% and 130 to 98
2022 McLaurin/Sutton 22.6% to 20.1% and 120 to 109
2023 McLaurin/Sutton 22.0% to 18.9% and 132 to 90
2024 McLaurin/Sutton 23.2% to 24.6% and 117 to 135

In 2020, Terry had a target share of 25.4% and 134 total targets, both career highs.

Here's the source for that (it links to 2019, but you can adjust the year)

2019 Advanced Wide Receiver Stats | NFL Metrics | FantasyPros

View 2019 Advanced Wide Receiver Stats including Yards After Catch, Average Depth of Targets, Catchable Passes, and more. See how WRs perform across the NFL's key metrics.

www.fantasypros.com

In sum, it looks like Terry's AV is significantly better, and he has 1,000 more receiving yards in a shorter career because he has 900 more yards after the catch. His catch rate is about 5 points better, and his drop rate is about 3 points better. His QB’s rating when he is targeted is 12 points better, and he has more targets over the six years measured above (2019-2024) with a better average percentage of his team's targets in that same timespan. He has more receptions during the five measured years above.

The stats do paint a picture here, and they clearly show Terry as a better runner after the catch by a significant amount. There’s your difference in these guys, and our eyes can see it (mine can). Terry is shorter, shiftier and better in the open field. Sutton is average to below-average in that aspect of the game.

The entire statistical comparison of performance provides enough evidence to me that I think we can say that it doesn't seem like they’re interchangeable in talent nor does there seem to be a close comparison regarding overall value. Although some categories are close (air yard market share, total air yards, and age), Terry McLaurin has been significantly better at nearly everything statistics can measure than Courtland Sutton. I’d expect to see a salary commensurate with these numbers, and with Sutton's new deal and their talent disparity in mind, I'd expect to see a new deal for Terry that is comparatively larger by a decent amount. We'll see if the NFL agrees.

(I used NFL Next Gen Stats to draw those conclusions about air yards and +/- x YAC.)

eta* Terry should use this if they try and use Sutton as a comparison to set a market value for his contract. That would be funny (and rule).

I ain’t reading all that.
I’m happy for u tho
Or sorry that happened

TL,DR: Sutton's a bad comp by any measurement but age and Terry will get much more than he did.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

This thread took off like a rocket ship
I didn't know so many folks were this passionate about Terry McLaurin

 

[rockaction]

This thread took off like a rocket ship
I didn't know so many folks were this passionate about Terry McLaurin

I had insomnia and was bored to tears. I made sure that nearly every word in that essay was the right one and the syntax and grammar were also tight. I even kept formatting the thing. It was not about Scary Terry. This is about writing OCD.

I'm only saying this because I played a long part in the past twenty-four hours. Not a well-read role, but a long one.

 

[TheWinz]

Per Rotoworld

The Athletic’s Nicki Jhabvala reports “All indications to this point have been that the Commanders are not interested in trading Terry McLaurin.”

The Commanders’ WR1 officially requested a trade on Thursday as he and the team remain in a stalemate over a contract extension for the veteran receiver. According to Jhabvala, “several teams” called the Commanders prior to his trade request on Thursday to inquire about McLaurin’s availability, but “were told the team will not trade him.” McLaurin will turn 30 shortly after the season starts, which is reportedly the biggest point of contention regarding his contract and the average annual value he hopes to receive on his new deal. Where things go from here is anybody’s guess, but we’ve seen players in the past request a trade only to stay with their current team on a new deal. Brandon Aiyuk, Tee Higgins, and Myles Garrett all made trade requests within the past year, only to receive deals. Things aren’t great between the Commanders and McLaurin, a contract resolution still seems more likely than a trade despite his request.

 

[farfromforgotten]

This thread took off like a rocket ship
I didn't know so many folks were this passionate about Terry McLaurin

Maybe it’s easier to come to the defense of a guy that seemingly keeps his head down and shows up to work everyday when it comes to situations like this?

I’m all for players getting as much money as they can while they can, few leave the game as healthy as when they came into it. The NFL is a giant and the owners aren’t strapped for cash. I haven’t chimed in this thread until now but I also never said a word about Aiyuk last year. If the players are helping my team win than what else do I care? Terry helps the Commanders win. Bottom line.

 

[Chaka]

It’s a contract extension, not a lifetime achievement award.

I dunno why, but this made me laugh really hard this morning. Probably because it's harsh, but it's also just flat out true. Paying Terry for sticking it out through Snyder years and all around terribleness is a feel good thought, but not really how businesses operate. Imagine the GM letting that quote rip in a presser though... oh man would it do numbers on social media.

I’m a SF Giants fan. They were the masters of the “reward for past performance” contracts. Every one of those burned them bad.

It’s just a bad way to do business.

I find this to be a poor argument. There is zero indication that McLaurin has tailed off or began to tail off last year. He's 30 (29 & 10 months actually) not dead and he had a great season for the Commodores last year, once again being the sole and primary focus of defensive passing game plans. It's foolish to go cheap when they have a QB on a rookie deal and no one in house to replace McLaurin's production.

McLaurin 2024 comprehensive highlight reel this dude ain't slowing down.

Pay the man!

 

[ffmail4me]

Terry is what the NFL should want from its star players. Opposite of a deva, never does anything to embarrass himself, his team, or the NFL, and is a great ambassador off the field. So many alpha WRs come with baggage, yet he has none. He has earned a big day and deserves a raise. He reminds me of a faster Art Monk, another Washington great who never complained and was considered a great teammate and gentleman on and off the field.

 

[JohnnyU]

I think since Jaylin Lane is better than Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson, they won’t miss McLaurin.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

It’s a contract extension, not a lifetime achievement award.

I dunno why, but this made me laugh really hard this morning. Probably because it's harsh, but it's also just flat out true. Paying Terry for sticking it out through Snyder years and all around terribleness is a feel good thought, but not really how businesses operate. Imagine the GM letting that quote rip in a presser though... oh man would it do numbers on social media.

I read it wrong and it made me laugh: It's a contract extension, not a Lifetime romcom.

 

[Buckna]

"Mike Evans, who owns a much longer streak of 1,000-yard campaigns, hit free agency in advance of his age-31 season in 2024 and landed only a two-year deal worth $41 million. Adjusting for the rise in the salary cap, that would be the equivalent of $22.4 million per year in 2025 money.

Calvin Ridley, who was one year younger than Evans when he hit free agency in 2024, signed with the Titans for four years and $92 million, averaging $23 million per season. Throwing out the unguaranteed portions, his contract is more realistically a two-year, $48 million pact, which would be worth $26.2 million per year in the current cap landscape. Players past their third contracts -- like Adams ($22 million per season), Stefon Diggs ($21.2 million), and Cooper Kupp ($15 million) -- all failed to land more than Ridley in average salary this offseason, even with the cap increase. All three are 31 or older.

McLaurin's case also took a hit this week when Broncos wideout Courtland Sutton, who turns 30 in October, signed an extension in a similar price range. Sutton's deal was a four-year, $92 million pact, averaging $23 million. The full details aren't available, but it doesn't look to offer much in the way of significant long-term guarantees; according to ESPN's Adam Schefter, Sutton was guaranteed the $14 million he was already set to receive in 2025 and got $27 million more in guarantees on the extension, suggesting he is really looking at a two-year, $41 million pact. In other words, that's essentially what Evans received last year."

ESPN article on the whole debacle

I think Terry is worth more than he's currently making. I also don't think he deserves $33mil a year. Or even close to that tbh. As far as DK, I more or less side with their take on this too.

"The two big differences have nothing to do with their on-field production. One is age: Metcalf is more than two years younger than McLaurin, having entered the league as a 21-year-old. The other is leverage. When the Steelers decided to trade a second-round pick for Metcalf, he had the leverage to ask for a significant extension as part of that deal, since Pittsburgh wouldn't have been inclined to trade a significant pick for such a talented player and then lose him for nothing the following year in free agency." Terry doesn't have that leverage.

$25-28mil a year seems to be the range, if not on the high side of that range. And I can't find the source now, so it might not even be true, but I had read the Commanders offered him a $27mil a year deal and that was what prompted this most recent trade request. If that is true, I would be pretty much off my "feeling bad for Terry" stance.

Don't agree with that ESPN article at all. Terry is significantly better than Sutton or Ridley (I mean, c'mon, no comparison there with one 1K season before he signed, injuries and a gambling suspension.) And significantly healthier than Kupp or Diggs. Evans also never hit Free Agency, he signed a widely acknowledged club friendly extension to stay with Tampa.

 

[Faust]

Terry McLaurin trade request: Should the Commanders pay up?

 

[Smack Tripper]

He's on my do not draft list

These holdouts always mess things up

Question is how much do we knock down Jayden

 

[Chaka]

I think since Jaylin Lane is better than Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson, they won’t miss McLaurin.

Man, you devy guys...

 

[Chaka]

He's on my do not draft list

These holdouts always mess things up

Question is how much do we knock down Jayden

Yeah, that Ja'Marr Chase holdout last year killed what could have been a promising season.

 

[menobrown]

He's on my do not draft list

These holdouts always mess things up

Question is how much do we knock down Jayden

I never think in terms of DND lists but even if he was signed tomorrow I'm so much lower then consensus on him I've known all off-season the only way I'd ever really even consider drafting him is if I was in a BB league in a national tournament and wanted a stack with Daniels.

I could not move Daniels lower then 3. I have felt like between him, Lamar and Allen it was splitting hairs and this would be that hair that would make the decision easier for me if I was in position to choose from the group is really the impact it would have for me on Jayden.

 

[pinkstapler]

It’s a contract extension, not a lifetime achievement award.

I dunno why, but this made me laugh really hard this morning. Probably because it's harsh, but it's also just flat out true. Paying Terry for sticking it out through Snyder years and all around terribleness is a feel good thought, but not really how businesses operate. Imagine the GM letting that quote rip in a presser though... oh man would it do numbers on social media.

I’m a SF Giants fan. They were the masters of the “reward for past performance” contracts. Every one of those burned them bad.

It’s just a bad way to do business.

I find this to be a poor argument. There is zero indication that McLaurin has tailed off or began to tail off last year. He's 30 (29 & 10 months actually) not dead and he had a great season for the Commodores last year, once again being the sole and primary focus of defensive passing game plans. It's foolish to go cheap when they have a QB on a rookie deal and no one in house to replace McLaurin's production.

McLaurin 2024 comprehensive highlight reel this dude ain't slowing down.

Pay the man!

I think the majority of us are all on the same page tbh; what it's really coming down to is what he wants vs what the Commanders have offered. And I think we don't have great answers on either of those things. If the speculation on his want of $33mil a year is true, I would say that's too high. Or at the very least, the Commanders should work the contract to their advantage where he gets his $33mil a year as an average, but the guarantees are more in line with what other comparable receivers his age and talent level have gotten with outs baked into the contract starting in 2027.

 

[JohnnyU]

He's on my do not draft list

These holdouts always mess things up

Question is how much do we knock down Jayden

Yeah, that Ja'Marr Chase holdout last year killed what could have been a promising season.

I wouldn’t use Chase and McLaurin in the same breath.

 

[pinkstapler]

"Mike Evans, who owns a much longer streak of 1,000-yard campaigns, hit free agency in advance of his age-31 season in 2024 and landed only a two-year deal worth $41 million. Adjusting for the rise in the salary cap, that would be the equivalent of $22.4 million per year in 2025 money.

Calvin Ridley, who was one year younger than Evans when he hit free agency in 2024, signed with the Titans for four years and $92 million, averaging $23 million per season. Throwing out the unguaranteed portions, his contract is more realistically a two-year, $48 million pact, which would be worth $26.2 million per year in the current cap landscape. Players past their third contracts -- like Adams ($22 million per season), Stefon Diggs ($21.2 million), and Cooper Kupp ($15 million) -- all failed to land more than Ridley in average salary this offseason, even with the cap increase. All three are 31 or older.

McLaurin's case also took a hit this week when Broncos wideout Courtland Sutton, who turns 30 in October, signed an extension in a similar price range. Sutton's deal was a four-year, $92 million pact, averaging $23 million. The full details aren't available, but it doesn't look to offer much in the way of significant long-term guarantees; according to ESPN's Adam Schefter, Sutton was guaranteed the $14 million he was already set to receive in 2025 and got $27 million more in guarantees on the extension, suggesting he is really looking at a two-year, $41 million pact. In other words, that's essentially what Evans received last year."

ESPN article on the whole debacle

I think Terry is worth more than he's currently making. I also don't think he deserves $33mil a year. Or even close to that tbh. As far as DK, I more or less side with their take on this too.

"The two big differences have nothing to do with their on-field production. One is age: Metcalf is more than two years younger than McLaurin, having entered the league as a 21-year-old. The other is leverage. When the Steelers decided to trade a second-round pick for Metcalf, he had the leverage to ask for a significant extension as part of that deal, since Pittsburgh wouldn't have been inclined to trade a significant pick for such a talented player and then lose him for nothing the following year in free agency." Terry doesn't have that leverage.

$25-28mil a year seems to be the range, if not on the high side of that range. And I can't find the source now, so it might not even be true, but I had read the Commanders offered him a $27mil a year deal and that was what prompted this most recent trade request. If that is true, I would be pretty much off my "feeling bad for Terry" stance.

Don't agree with that ESPN article at all. Terry is significantly better than Sutton or Ridley (I mean, c'mon, no comparison there with one 1K season before he signed, injuries and a gambling suspension.) And significantly healthier than Kupp or Diggs. Evans also never hit Free Agency, he signed a widely acknowledged club friendly extension to stay with Tampa.

I don't think Terry is significantly better than Ridley. Better? Sure. $33mil vs $23mil better, no, not at all. And I think Diggs IS significantly better than Terry, more than enough to compensate for the fact he's had one significant injury over a decade of playing at a WR1 level.

 

[Chaka]

It’s a contract extension, not a lifetime achievement award.

I dunno why, but this made me laugh really hard this morning. Probably because it's harsh, but it's also just flat out true. Paying Terry for sticking it out through Snyder years and all around terribleness is a feel good thought, but not really how businesses operate. Imagine the GM letting that quote rip in a presser though... oh man would it do numbers on social media.

I’m a SF Giants fan. They were the masters of the “reward for past performance” contracts. Every one of those burned them bad.

It’s just a bad way to do business.

I find this to be a poor argument. There is zero indication that McLaurin has tailed off or began to tail off last year. He's 30 (29 & 10 months actually) not dead and he had a great season for the Commodores last year, once again being the sole and primary focus of defensive passing game plans. It's foolish to go cheap when they have a QB on a rookie deal and no one in house to replace McLaurin's production.

McLaurin 2024 comprehensive highlight reel this dude ain't slowing down.

Pay the man!

I think the majority of us are all on the same page tbh; what it's really coming down to is what he wants vs what the Commanders have offered. And I think we don't have great answers on either of those things. If the speculation on his want of $33mil a year is true, I would say that's too high. Or at the very least, the Commanders should work the contract to their advantage where he gets his $33mil a year as an average, but the guarantees are more in line with what other comparable receivers his age and talent level have gotten with outs baked into the contract starting in 2027.

I consider this to be easily the most likely outcome. Like I said above, I imagine the practical guarantee will probably be closer to $27-$28 mil. Probably with a team out after one or two years.

 

[pinkstapler]

It’s a contract extension, not a lifetime achievement award.

I dunno why, but this made me laugh really hard this morning. Probably because it's harsh, but it's also just flat out true. Paying Terry for sticking it out through Snyder years and all around terribleness is a feel good thought, but not really how businesses operate. Imagine the GM letting that quote rip in a presser though... oh man would it do numbers on social media.

I’m a SF Giants fan. They were the masters of the “reward for past performance” contracts. Every one of those burned them bad.

It’s just a bad way to do business.

I find this to be a poor argument. There is zero indication that McLaurin has tailed off or began to tail off last year. He's 30 (29 & 10 months actually) not dead and he had a great season for the Commodores last year, once again being the sole and primary focus of defensive passing game plans. It's foolish to go cheap when they have a QB on a rookie deal and no one in house to replace McLaurin's production.

McLaurin 2024 comprehensive highlight reel this dude ain't slowing down.

Pay the man!

I think the majority of us are all on the same page tbh; what it's really coming down to is what he wants vs what the Commanders have offered. And I think we don't have great answers on either of those things. If the speculation on his want of $33mil a year is true, I would say that's too high. Or at the very least, the Commanders should work the contract to their advantage where he gets his $33mil a year as an average, but the guarantees are more in line with what other comparable receivers his age and talent level have gotten with outs baked into the contract starting in 2027.

I consider this to be easily the most likely outcome. Like I said above, I imagine the practical guarantee will probably be closer to $27-$28 mil. Probably with a team out after one or two years.

Def. no expert on all things WR contracts (though I did stay at a Holiday Inn last night) and I think that is fair. It's a slight bump over what the other guys got which we can write off on the emotional factors of being an exemplary teammate, a fan favorite, riding out the storm with the team, etc. It's hard to believe he wouldn't take that. Which is why I'm struggling to find the source that said the Commanders offered him that; I'm doubting that part is true. Or if they did, maybe the guarantees were doo doo.

 

[JohnnyU]

It’s a contract extension, not a lifetime achievement award.

I dunno why, but this made me laugh really hard this morning. Probably because it's harsh, but it's also just flat out true. Paying Terry for sticking it out through Snyder years and all around terribleness is a feel good thought, but not really how businesses operate. Imagine the GM letting that quote rip in a presser though... oh man would it do numbers on social media.

I’m a SF Giants fan. They were the masters of the “reward for past performance” contracts. Every one of those burned them bad.

It’s just a bad way to do business.

I find this to be a poor argument. There is zero indication that McLaurin has tailed off or began to tail off last year. He's 30 (29 & 10 months actually) not dead and he had a great season for the Commodores last year, once again being the sole and primary focus of defensive passing game plans. It's foolish to go cheap when they have a QB on a rookie deal and no one in house to replace McLaurin's production.

McLaurin 2024 comprehensive highlight reel this dude ain't slowing down.

Pay the man!

I think the majority of us are all on the same page tbh; what it's really coming down to is what he wants vs what the Commanders have offered. And I think we don't have great answers on either of those things. If the speculation on his want of $33mil a year is true, I would say that's too high. Or at the very least, the Commanders should work the contract to their advantage where he gets his $33mil a year as an average, but the guarantees are more in line with what other comparable receivers his age and talent level have gotten with outs baked into the contract starting in 2027.

I consider this to be easily the most likely outcome. Like I said above, I imagine the practical guarantee will probably be closer to $27-$28 mil. Probably with a team out after one or two years.

Def. no expert on all things WR contracts (though I did stay at a Holiday Inn last night) and I think that is fair. It's a slight bump over what the other guys got which we can write off on the emotional factors of being an exemplary teammate, a fan favorite, riding out the storm with the team, etc. It's hard to believe he wouldn't take that. Which is why I'm struggling to find the source that said the Commanders offered him that; I'm doubting that part is true. Or if they did, maybe the guarantees were doo doo.

It’s Holiday Inn Express. Get it right.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Terry McLaurin trade request: Should the Commanders pay up?

Good find Faust, hope everyone reads it, covers all the angles and echos some of the points I brought up about how the FO is looking at all this

 

[pinkstapler]

It’s a contract extension, not a lifetime achievement award.

I dunno why, but this made me laugh really hard this morning. Probably because it's harsh, but it's also just flat out true. Paying Terry for sticking it out through Snyder years and all around terribleness is a feel good thought, but not really how businesses operate. Imagine the GM letting that quote rip in a presser though... oh man would it do numbers on social media.

I’m a SF Giants fan. They were the masters of the “reward for past performance” contracts. Every one of those burned them bad.

It’s just a bad way to do business.

I find this to be a poor argument. There is zero indication that McLaurin has tailed off or began to tail off last year. He's 30 (29 & 10 months actually) not dead and he had a great season for the Commodores last year, once again being the sole and primary focus of defensive passing game plans. It's foolish to go cheap when they have a QB on a rookie deal and no one in house to replace McLaurin's production.

McLaurin 2024 comprehensive highlight reel this dude ain't slowing down.

Pay the man!

I think the majority of us are all on the same page tbh; what it's really coming down to is what he wants vs what the Commanders have offered. And I think we don't have great answers on either of those things. If the speculation on his want of $33mil a year is true, I would say that's too high. Or at the very least, the Commanders should work the contract to their advantage where he gets his $33mil a year as an average, but the guarantees are more in line with what other comparable receivers his age and talent level have gotten with outs baked into the contract starting in 2027.

I consider this to be easily the most likely outcome. Like I said above, I imagine the practical guarantee will probably be closer to $27-$28 mil. Probably with a team out after one or two years.

Def. no expert on all things WR contracts (though I did stay at a Holiday Inn last night) and I think that is fair. It's a slight bump over what the other guys got which we can write off on the emotional factors of being an exemplary teammate, a fan favorite, riding out the storm with the team, etc. It's hard to believe he wouldn't take that. Which is why I'm struggling to find the source that said the Commanders offered him that; I'm doubting that part is true. Or if they did, maybe the guarantees were doo doo.

It’s Holiday Inn Express. Get it right.

I got it right. I prefer my Holiday Inn's like I prefer my women; full service with a wide range of amenities.

 

[Chaka]

It’s a contract extension, not a lifetime achievement award.

I dunno why, but this made me laugh really hard this morning. Probably because it's harsh, but it's also just flat out true. Paying Terry for sticking it out through Snyder years and all around terribleness is a feel good thought, but not really how businesses operate. Imagine the GM letting that quote rip in a presser though... oh man would it do numbers on social media.

I’m a SF Giants fan. They were the masters of the “reward for past performance” contracts. Every one of those burned them bad.

It’s just a bad way to do business.

I find this to be a poor argument. There is zero indication that McLaurin has tailed off or began to tail off last year. He's 30 (29 & 10 months actually) not dead and he had a great season for the Commodores last year, once again being the sole and primary focus of defensive passing game plans. It's foolish to go cheap when they have a QB on a rookie deal and no one in house to replace McLaurin's production.

McLaurin 2024 comprehensive highlight reel this dude ain't slowing down.

Pay the man!

I think the majority of us are all on the same page tbh; what it's really coming down to is what he wants vs what the Commanders have offered. And I think we don't have great answers on either of those things. If the speculation on his want of $33mil a year is true, I would say that's too high. Or at the very least, the Commanders should work the contract to their advantage where he gets his $33mil a year as an average, but the guarantees are more in line with what other comparable receivers his age and talent level have gotten with outs baked into the contract starting in 2027.

I consider this to be easily the most likely outcome. Like I said above, I imagine the practical guarantee will probably be closer to $27-$28 mil. Probably with a team out after one or two years.

Def. no expert on all things WR contracts (though I did stay at a Holiday Inn last night) and I think that is fair. It's a slight bump over what the other guys got which we can write off on the emotional factors of being an exemplary teammate, a fan favorite, riding out the storm with the team, etc. It's hard to believe he wouldn't take that. Which is why I'm struggling to find the source that said the Commanders offered him that; I'm doubting that part is true. Or if they did, maybe the guarantees were doo doo.

Well, I do consider McLaurin, in 2025 and for his career, to be a better WR than Sutton & Ridley. I wouldn't be surprised if he was better than DK in 2025 too. DK has pretty much been all sizzle and no steak. He had a great season in 2020 but that's forever ago, on the whole McLaurin has easily matched him on their careers.

But DK is two years younger and because of his measurables entering the league there is always that feeling with him that he could put up 1,500 yards and 15 TDs by accident. So, I do understand his contract somewhat.

 

[pinkstapler]

Def. no expert on all things WR contracts (though I did stay at a Holiday Inn last night) and I think that is fair. It's a slight bump over what the other guys got which we can write off on the emotional factors of being an exemplary teammate, a fan favorite, riding out the storm with the team, etc. It's hard to believe he wouldn't take that. Which is why I'm struggling to find the source that said the Commanders offered him that; I'm doubting that part is true. Or if they did, maybe the guarantees were doo doo.

Well, I do consider McLaurin, in 2025 and for his career, to be a better WR than Sutton & Ridley. I wouldn't be surprised if he was better than DK in 2025 too. DK has pretty much been all sizzle and no steak. He had a great season in 2020 but that's forever ago, on the whole McLaurin has easily matched him on their careers.

But DK is two years younger and because of his measurables entering the league there is always that feeling with him that he could put up 1,500 yards and 15 TDs by accident. So, I do understand his contract somewhat.

I can't argue with that. I may not be in the majority, but as a Steelers fan as soon as I started hearing the trade rumors/hold out stuff I couldn't help but wish we picked up Terry instead of DK. I think he fits Arthur Smith, and even more so Aaron Rodgers, better than Metcalf. Plus I just like him more as a rooting fan.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

It’s a contract extension, not a lifetime achievement award.

I dunno why, but this made me laugh really hard this morning. Probably because it's harsh, but it's also just flat out true. Paying Terry for sticking it out through Snyder years and all around terribleness is a feel good thought, but not really how businesses operate. Imagine the GM letting that quote rip in a presser though... oh man would it do numbers on social media.

I’m a SF Giants fan. They were the masters of the “reward for past performance” contracts. Every one of those burned them bad.

It’s just a bad way to do business.

I find this to be a poor argument. There is zero indication that McLaurin has tailed off or began to tail off last year. He's 30 (29 & 10 months actually) not dead and he had a great season for the Commodores last year, once again being the sole and primary focus of defensive passing game plans. It's foolish to go cheap when they have a QB on a rookie deal and no one in house to replace McLaurin's production.

McLaurin 2024 comprehensive highlight reel this dude ain't slowing down.

Pay the man!

I think the majority of us are all on the same page tbh; what it's really coming down to is what he wants vs what the Commanders have offered. And I think we don't have great answers on either of those things. If the speculation on his want of $33mil a year is true, I would say that's too high. Or at the very least, the Commanders should work the contract to their advantage where he gets his $33mil a year as an average, but the guarantees are more in line with what other comparable receivers his age and talent level have gotten with outs baked into the contract starting in 2027.

I consider this to be easily the most likely outcome. Like I said above, I imagine the practical guarantee will probably be closer to $27-$28 mil. Probably with a team out after one or two years.

Def. no expert on all things WR contracts (though I did stay at a Holiday Inn last night) and I think that is fair. It's a slight bump over what the other guys got which we can write off on the emotional factors of being an exemplary teammate, a fan favorite, riding out the storm with the team, etc. It's hard to believe he wouldn't take that. Which is why I'm struggling to find the source that said the Commanders offered him that; I'm doubting that part is true. Or if they did, maybe the guarantees were doo doo.

It’s Holiday Inn Express. Get it right.

I got it right. I prefer my Holiday Inn's like I prefer my women; full service with a wide range of amenities.

Not cheap, dirty, & available?

Huh

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Def. no expert on all things WR contracts (though I did stay at a Holiday Inn last night) and I think that is fair. It's a slight bump over what the other guys got which we can write off on the emotional factors of being an exemplary teammate, a fan favorite, riding out the storm with the team, etc. It's hard to believe he wouldn't take that. Which is why I'm struggling to find the source that said the Commanders offered him that; I'm doubting that part is true. Or if they did, maybe the guarantees were doo doo.

Well, I do consider McLaurin, in 2025 and for his career, to be a better WR than Sutton & Ridley. I wouldn't be surprised if he was better than DK in 2025 too. DK has pretty much been all sizzle and no steak. He had a great season in 2020 but that's forever ago, on the whole McLaurin has easily matched him on their careers.

But DK is two years younger and because of his measurables entering the league there is always that feeling with him that he could put up 1,500 yards and 15 TDs by accident. So, I do understand his contract somewhat.

I can't argue with that. I may not be in the majority, but as a Steelers fan as soon as I started hearing the trade rumors/hold out stuff I couldn't help but wish we picked up Terry instead of DK. I think he fits Arthur Smith, and even more so Aaron Rodgers, better than Metcalf. Plus I just like him more as a rooting fan.

Let me just say, being tagged in the middle of a convo between you & @Chaka is doing wonders for my notifications, boy howdy!

 

[Chaka]

Def. no expert on all things WR contracts (though I did stay at a Holiday Inn last night) and I think that is fair. It's a slight bump over what the other guys got which we can write off on the emotional factors of being an exemplary teammate, a fan favorite, riding out the storm with the team, etc. It's hard to believe he wouldn't take that. Which is why I'm struggling to find the source that said the Commanders offered him that; I'm doubting that part is true. Or if they did, maybe the guarantees were doo doo.

Well, I do consider McLaurin, in 2025 and for his career, to be a better WR than Sutton & Ridley. I wouldn't be surprised if he was better than DK in 2025 too. DK has pretty much been all sizzle and no steak. He had a great season in 2020 but that's forever ago, on the whole McLaurin has easily matched him on their careers.

But DK is two years younger and because of his measurables entering the league there is always that feeling with him that he could put up 1,500 yards and 15 TDs by accident. So, I do understand his contract somewhat.

I can't argue with that. I may not be in the majority, but as a Steelers fan as soon as I started hearing the trade rumors/hold out stuff I couldn't help but wish we picked up Terry instead of DK. I think he fits Arthur Smith, and even more so Aaron Rodgers, better than Metcalf. Plus I just like him more as a rooting fan.

Let me just say, being tagged in the middle of a convo between you & @Chaka is doing wonders for my notifications, boy howdy!

We just know how you like to feel included.

 

[JohnnyU]

Def. no expert on all things WR contracts (though I did stay at a Holiday Inn last night) and I think that is fair. It's a slight bump over what the other guys got which we can write off on the emotional factors of being an exemplary teammate, a fan favorite, riding out the storm with the team, etc. It's hard to believe he wouldn't take that. Which is why I'm struggling to find the source that said the Commanders offered him that; I'm doubting that part is true. Or if they did, maybe the guarantees were doo doo.

Well, I do consider McLaurin, in 2025 and for his career, to be a better WR than Sutton & Ridley. I wouldn't be surprised if he was better than DK in 2025 too. DK has pretty much been all sizzle and no steak. He had a great season in 2020 but that's forever ago, on the whole McLaurin has easily matched him on their careers.

But DK is two years younger and because of his measurables entering the league there is always that feeling with him that he could put up 1,500 yards and 15 TDs by accident. So, I do understand his contract somewhat.

I can't argue with that. I may not be in the majority, but as a Steelers fan as soon as I started hearing the trade rumors/hold out stuff I couldn't help but wish we picked up Terry instead of DK. I think he fits Arthur Smith, and even more so Aaron Rodgers, better than Metcalf. Plus I just like him more as a rooting fan.

Let me just say, being tagged in the middle of a convo between you & @Chaka is doing wonders for my notifications, boy howdy!

We just know how you like to feel included.

It’s his dopamine rush

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Def. no expert on all things WR contracts (though I did stay at a Holiday Inn last night) and I think that is fair. It's a slight bump over what the other guys got which we can write off on the emotional factors of being an exemplary teammate, a fan favorite, riding out the storm with the team, etc. It's hard to believe he wouldn't take that. Which is why I'm struggling to find the source that said the Commanders offered him that; I'm doubting that part is true. Or if they did, maybe the guarantees were doo doo.

Well, I do consider McLaurin, in 2025 and for his career, to be a better WR than Sutton & Ridley. I wouldn't be surprised if he was better than DK in 2025 too. DK has pretty much been all sizzle and no steak. He had a great season in 2020 but that's forever ago, on the whole McLaurin has easily matched him on their careers.

But DK is two years younger and because of his measurables entering the league there is always that feeling with him that he could put up 1,500 yards and 15 TDs by accident. So, I do understand his contract somewhat.

I can't argue with that. I may not be in the majority, but as a Steelers fan as soon as I started hearing the trade rumors/hold out stuff I couldn't help but wish we picked up Terry instead of DK. I think he fits Arthur Smith, and even more so Aaron Rodgers, better than Metcalf. Plus I just like him more as a rooting fan.

Let me just say, being tagged in the middle of a convo between you & @Chaka is doing wonders for my notifications, boy howdy!

We just know how you like to feel included.

It’s his dopamine rush

Hey, it’s better than cutting.

I just wanna feel something!

 

[fatness]

This thread took off like a rocket ship
I didn't know so many folks were this passionate about Terry McLaurin

If you think it's busy now, wait until McLaurin starts calling himself Bill.

 

[pinkstapler]

This thread took off like a rocket ship
I didn't know so many folks were this passionate about Terry McLaurin

If you think it's busy now, wait until McLaurin starts calling himself Bill.

Looks more like a Thurston to me.

 

[nittanylion]

DC City Council, moments ago, voted 9-3 in favor of the RFK Stadium Bill (final vote coming in September) , apparently *they're* not phased by the McL situation!

 

[Da Franchise]

Sutton is a much better comp.

I actually totally forgot about his recent extension and you are right, that's a lot better comp.

Same age, probably same ask. Both dudes in a situation as a primary target with a young QB. Almost identical.

They're not in the same situation at all. Sutton has never been "the guy" outside of his sophomore season he's just been "their best guy"

@Terpman22 numbers, shortened:

2019 Haskins/McCoy/Keenum less than 2900 years passing(net) -
919 receiving yards as a rookie, accounting for over 28.6% of all yards receiving for the year.

2020: Haskins/Alex Smtih/Kyle Allen/Heinicke
29.4% 84/1118/4 sophomore campaign

2021: Heinicke was the guy this year no other QB had more than 209 yards passing this year
28.1%, 77/1053/5

2022: Let’s trade for Carson Wentz! But basically Heinicke and Wentz split the starts this year, and Heinicke outplays Wentz in every efficiency metric,
Terry? 77/1191 accounting for over 31%!

2023: Sam Howell is the guy but he throws 3900 yards and 21 TDS as well as the same amount of INTs, most sacked QB in the NFL and the Commanders win only 4 games. While unlucky, they are lucky enough to be so bad that the only team worse than them is the Chicago Bears, who famously passed on drafting Jalen Carter twice in this season’s draft.
Terry? 1002 yards on 79 catches but only 24 % of yards this season.

2024: JD5: We see it we know it so no need to break it down but the stats.
Career high 13 tds with finally a real QB, previous high: 5. Still over 28% of all receiving yards.

Going back to Sutton- during his career Sutton has one year over 1000 yards, one year of over 70 receptions, and has four years with 4 or less TDs before 10 and 8 in the previous two years respectively.

Point being - put some respect on Terry's name. The man deserves much more than Sutton.

I have respect all over his name and have been wearing it on my back on Sundays for the last six years.

They are 1 month apart in age and had similar seasons last year. Terry has had better career so far and is also just a better player. There’s no direct age/ability/contract comp for Terry so we have to piece it together. Sutton/Higgins/Metcalf seems like the best combo. Take pieces of each deal.

I have no doubt the team would gladly give him $28m-$30m for two years. Thats a sizable raise and rewards him for what he means to the team. It’s reasonable and probably even generous. Until Terry comes back to earth though they can’t negotiate.

 

[Da Franchise]

Oh and a really good argument I heard today that I have to agree with- every team in his own division has a better WR1 and you could even argue he’s closer to a couple WR2s than those above him.

Lamb, AJB, Nabers, DeVonta, Pickens…

You can’t give Jefferson money for that. It’s insane.

 

[LawFitz]

I hate the way contracts are reported. DK Metcalf is not getting $33 MM per year. He had one year remaining on his last deal when he signed his new one, which added four additional years and a total of $132 MM additional dollars, which is where that number comes from.

But the reality is the new deal is for five years, and a total of $150 MM, at $30 MM per. But even that isn't real.

Here's the real deal... It's a two-year guarantee which pays DK $35 MM in 2025 and $25 MM in 2026 for a total of $60 MM guaranteed at $30 MM per.

After that, it's series of one year team options over three years paying DK the following with team outs each and every year at very reasonable dead cap hits, if they choose:

2027: $26.5 MM
2028: $28 MM
2029: $35.5 MM (age 32)

Odds aren't high that DK will see a penny of that $36 MM in 2029. So it's really a two year deal at $30 MM per in 2025-26, then two more years (with team options for outs) for $27.25 MM per in 2027-28.

That's the real deal, and TMC's new deal should be something similar, especially given his age. No way he should be asking for $33 MM per unless that's a fugazi figure like it is for DKM.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/player/_/id/29100/dk-metcalf/contract/cash

 

[Chaka]

Oh and a really good argument I heard today that I have to agree with- every team in his own division has a better WR1 and you could even argue he’s closer to a couple WR2s than those above him.

Lamb, AJB, Nabers, DeVonta, Pickens…

You can’t give Jefferson money for that. It’s insane.

Whoa whoa whoa slow down there Tiger

Lamb, AJB, Target Dependent, Hasn't Been, Not Yet Diva Potential Future AB.

No one will argue Lamb or AJB. I also get that people love those tasty underpants Olympics measurables, but Terry's per game metrics easily stack against those other jokers and none of them have been nearly as consistently productive as Terry.

And, even if you allow those last three as "better" the point that is clearly missing is there is no one close to any of those guys behind McLaurin in Washington and they're not going to find one of those guys on, or after, 8/1/25.

They need to give him his "three year, $90 mil" deal with an actual guarantee around $56 mil.

 

[Da Franchise]

Oh and a really good argument I heard today that I have to agree with- every team in his own division has a better WR1 and you could even argue he’s closer to a couple WR2s than those above him.

Lamb, AJB, Nabers, DeVonta, Pickens…

You can’t give Jefferson money for that. It’s insane.

Whoa whoa whoa slow down there Tiger

Lamb, AJB, Target Dependent, Hasn't Been, Not Yet Diva Potential Future AB.

No one will argue Lamb or AJB. I also get that people love those tasty underpants Olympics measurables, but Terry's per game metrics easily stack against those other jokers and none of them have been nearly as consistently productive as Terry.

And, even if you allow those last three as "better" the point that is clearly missing is there is no one close to any of those guys behind McLaurin in Washington and they're not going to find one of those guys on, or after, 8/1/25.

They need to give him his "three year, $90 mil" deal with an actual guarantee around $56 mil.

Every team in the league would take Nabers over Terry.

I said he’s closer to DeVonta and Pickens than those above him.

Also I suggested giving him more money than that.

 

[rockaction]

Here's the real deal... It's a two-year guarantee which pays DK $35 MM in 2025 and $25 MM in 2026 for a total of $60 MM guaranteed at $30 MM per.

We disagree often but this is spot-on with how you're looking at it. If you have $70M guaranteed cash with a $10M signing bonus and two guaranteed years at $30M, and then one-year team options for three consecutive at $30M a pop then you ARE NOT MAKING (note the emphasis there) $160M over 5 years. You're at 2 years for a guaranteed $70M with $10M up front, which means you have a 2-year, $35M annual average for that total guarantee of $70M deal with team options. This kind of reporting lets you know who went journalism school and whined about social justice (or learned how to obtain access and kiss ***) and who really knows contracts and is somebody to read. The rest is just garbage.

 

[Chaka]

Oh and a really good argument I heard today that I have to agree with- every team in his own division has a better WR1 and you could even argue he’s closer to a couple WR2s than those above him.

Lamb, AJB, Nabers, DeVonta, Pickens…

You can’t give Jefferson money for that. It’s insane.

Whoa whoa whoa slow down there Tiger

Lamb, AJB, Target Dependent, Hasn't Been, Not Yet Diva Potential Future AB.

No one will argue Lamb or AJB. I also get that people love those tasty underpants Olympics measurables, but Terry's per game metrics easily stack against those other jokers and none of them have been nearly as consistently productive as Terry.

And, even if you allow those last three as "better" the point that is clearly missing is there is no one close to any of those guys behind McLaurin in Washington and they're not going to find one of those guys on, or after, 8/1/25.

They need to give him his "three year, $90 mil" deal with an actual guarantee around $56 mil.

Every team in the league would take Nabers over Terry.

Sure, of course they would. He's 22 years old with a great college pedigree, I would probably take him over Terry.

It doesn't make him better.

I think he's the real deal but let's see who he turns into. He had a monster 1,200 yard season as a rookie but he had an insane 170 targets. His overall metrics were pretty mid.

I think better QB play will turn him into an All-Pro but Terry has had as bad a QB roster for his career as anyone and he never had a y/r below 12.7 y/r, Malik was at 11 y/r last year, or a yards/target of 7.1 (Terry's average over six seasons is 8.8 with a low of 7.6) or an ADOT of 9.1 (12.3 avg & 9.7 low).

Again Terry has had as poor a roster of QBs throwing to him as anyone.

I must reiterate that I probably choose Nabers over McLaurin, but Terry is being terribly underrated by the world.

And, the bottom line is Washington has nothing close to him on the roster. They need to pay him if they want to vie for a championship while Daniels is on his rookie deal.

 

[Da Franchise]

Oh and a really good argument I heard today that I have to agree with- every team in his own division has a better WR1 and you could even argue he’s closer to a couple WR2s than those above him.

Lamb, AJB, Nabers, DeVonta, Pickens…

You can’t give Jefferson money for that. It’s insane.

Whoa whoa whoa slow down there Tiger

Lamb, AJB, Target Dependent, Hasn't Been, Not Yet Diva Potential Future AB.

No one will argue Lamb or AJB. I also get that people love those tasty underpants Olympics measurables, but Terry's per game metrics easily stack against those other jokers and none of them have been nearly as consistently productive as Terry.

And, even if you allow those last three as "better" the point that is clearly missing is there is no one close to any of those guys behind McLaurin in Washington and they're not going to find one of those guys on, or after, 8/1/25.

They need to give him his "three year, $90 mil" deal with an actual guarantee around $56 mil.

Every team in the league would take Nabers over Terry.

Sure, of course they would. He's 22 years old with a great college pedigree, I would probably take him over Terry.

It doesn't make him better.

I think he's the real deal but let's see who he turns into. He had a monster 1,200 yard season as a rookie but he had an insane 170 targets. His overall metrics were pretty mid.

I think better QB play will turn him into an All-Pro but Terry has had as bad a QB roster for his career as anyone and he never had a y/r below 12.7, Malik was at 11 last year, or a yards/target of 7.1 (Terry's average over six seasons is 8.8 with a low of 7.6) or an ADOT of 9.1 (12.3 avg & 9.7 low).

Again Terry has had as poor a roster of QBs throwing to him as anyone.

I must reiterate that I probably choose Nabers over McLaurin, but Terry is being terribly underrated by the world.

And, the bottom line is Washington has nothing close to him on the roster. They need to pay him if they want to vie for a championship while Daniels is on his rookie deal.

Oh so age matters? This is the difficulty in extending Terry. (Nevermind that Nabers is actually a freak and already better anyway)

I have been touting Terry as underrated for years. Since he was a rookie. He deserves to be paid top 5-10 even though he’s more like top 10-20 in reality. All of a sudden everyone realizes it to the point he’s now being overrated.

A lot of people seem to be missing the simple truth. Washington wants to pay him. They’re almost certainly willing to go to $28M and maybe even $30M but they can’t start there because they won’t have anything left to concede when the negotiations start. Terry’s starting at Jefferson money. He’s drunk. When he and his moron agent decide to sober up, he’ll get paid.

And, the *actual* bottom line is Terry is under contract for this year and can be tagged next year. He can either 1) play or 2) not play and lose tens of millions of dollars, not accrue a year toward free agency, only to have the same choice all over again next year for his reward.

And despite those facts, Washington still wants to give him a very generous payday anyway.

 

[rockaction]

I was confused by Chaka's post, so I re-did it for everybody. I deleted his quote on accident.

Terry's average depth of target, aDOT, is 12.3 for his career. His aDOT was 13.4 last year. His worst aDOT was 9.7 in 2020 and every other year is at least above 11.5.

Terry's receiving yards per target, Y/T, (which is not average depth of target nor air yards before catch) is 8.8 yards for his career. His worst season of Y/T was 7.6 yards (2020) like you're talking about. Last year's Y/T was 9.4 yards.

Terry's average yards before the catch per reception, YBC/R, (or average air yards per catch—I think they're synonymous) is 9.4 yards for his career and last year it was 9.8 yards. His low YBC/R was 7.4 yards in 2002.

Nabers' aDOT is 9.1 his receiving yards per target is 7.1 and his average yards before the catch per reception (air yards before catch) is 6.8.

2024​	Receptions​	Yards​	Targets​	Catch Rate​	aDOT​	Y/T​	YBC/R (yards before catch/reception)​	YAC/R​	QB Rating When Targeted​
Terry McLaurin​	82​	1096​	118​	70.1​	13.4​	9.4​	9.8​	3.6​	133.0​
Malik Nabers​	109​	1204​	170​	64.1​	9.1​	7.1​	6.8​	4.2​	93.8​
Courtland Sutton​	81​	1081​	135​	60​	13.2​	8.0​	11.1​	2.2​	86.7​
Calvin Ridley​	64​	1017​	120​	53.3​	15.3​	8.5​	10.5​	3.6​	79.1​
D.K. Metcalf​	66​	992​	108​	61.1​	13.1​	9.2​	11.0​	4.0​	99​
Mike Evans​	74​	1004​	110​	67.3​	11.6​	9.1​	10.5​	3.1​	110.6​

​

Career​	Receptions​	Yards​	Targets​	Catch Rate​	aDOT​	Y/T​	YBC/R (air yards/reception)​	YAC/R​	QB Rating When Targeted​
Terry McLaurin​	460​	6379​	726​	63.4​	12.3​	8.8​	9.4​	4.5​	100.3​
Malik Nabers​	109​	1096​	170​	64.1​	9.1​	7.1​	6.8​	4.2​	93.8​
Courtland Sutton​	379​	5340​	646​	54.5​	13.0​	8.3​	11.1​	3.0​	88.4​
Calvin Ridley​	388​	5375​	636​	61.0​	13.2​	8.5​	10.5​	3.3​	98.0​
D.K. Metcalf​	438​	6324​	726​	60.3​	12.7​	8.7​	10.3​	4.1​	100.9​
Mike Evans ('19-'04)​	441​	6581​	714​	62​	13.1​	9.21​	11.4​	3.52​	106.8​

​

Conclusion: Evans is underpaid. So is Terry.

Source: Pro Football Reference.

 

[ProstheticRGK]

Thank god for rock’s insomnia.

 

[farfromforgotten]

Oh and a really good argument I heard today that I have to agree with- every team in his own division has a better WR1 and you could even argue he’s closer to a couple WR2s than those above him.

Lamb, AJB, Nabers, DeVonta, Pickens…

You can’t give Jefferson money for that. It’s insane.

Whoa whoa whoa slow down there Tiger

Lamb, AJB, Target Dependent, Hasn't Been, Not Yet Diva Potential Future AB.

No one will argue Lamb or AJB. I also get that people love those tasty underpants Olympics measurables, but Terry's per game metrics easily stack against those other jokers and none of them have been nearly as consistently productive as Terry.

And, even if you allow those last three as "better" the point that is clearly missing is there is no one close to any of those guys behind McLaurin in Washington and they're not going to find one of those guys on, or after, 8/1/25.

They need to give him his "three year, $90 mil" deal with an actual guarantee around $56 mil.

Every team in the league would take Nabers over Terry.

Sure, of course they would. He's 22 years old with a great college pedigree, I would probably take him over Terry.

It doesn't make him better.

I think he's the real deal but let's see who he turns into. He had a monster 1,200 yard season as a rookie but he had an insane 170 targets. His overall metrics were pretty mid.

I think better QB play will turn him into an All-Pro but Terry has had as bad a QB roster for his career as anyone and he never had a y/r below 12.7, Malik was at 11 last year, or a yards/target of 7.1 (Terry's average over six seasons is 8.8 with a low of 7.6) or an ADOT of 9.1 (12.3 avg & 9.7 low).

Again Terry has had as poor a roster of QBs throwing to him as anyone.

I must reiterate that I probably choose Nabers over McLaurin, but Terry is being terribly underrated by the world.

And, the bottom line is Washington has nothing close to him on the roster. They need to pay him if they want to vie for a championship while Daniels is on his rookie deal.

Oh so age matters? This is the difficulty in extending Terry. (Nevermind that Nabers is actually a freak and already better anyway)

I have been touting Terry as underrated for years. Since he was a rookie. He deserves to be paid top 5-10 even though he’s more like top 10-20 in reality. All of a sudden everyone realizes it to the point he’s now being overrated.

A lot of people seem to be missing the simple truth. Washington wants to pay him. They’re almost certainly willing to go to $28M and maybe even $30M but they can’t start there because they won’t have anything left to concede when the negotiations start. Terry’s starting at Jefferson money. He’s drunk. When he and his moron agent decide to sober up, he’ll get paid.

And, the *actual* bottom line is Terry is under contract for this year and can be tagged next year. He can either 1) play or 2) not play and lose tens of millions of dollars, not accrue a year toward free agency, only to have the same choice all over again next year for his reward.

And despite those facts, Washington still wants to give him a very generous payday anyway.

Step off your pedestal for a moment. I think most people who are wise about football have realized that Terry has been underrated for quite some time now. This isn’t some breaking news. He’s just easy to not talk about because he’s not one to make a scene. Why is it okay for the organization to not start there but an issue for him to do so? I think that “he and his moron agent” know that he’s not going to get Jefferson money but what’s the real harm of starting higher and working his way down at this point? He wants one more big payday. They realize that the Commanders are riding high after last season and that there’s no way they go into this season with Deebo and Ertz as the top options in their receiving game.

Aiyuk is a bit younger but I seem to remember quite a few people saying he was wrong to hold out for his extension last year and that 49ers would hang more in the 28 per range (maybe even lower? I can’t remember the exact details now) when all was said and done. And this is a team with CMc, Deebo, and Kittle on the roster already and knowing that their former rookie QB was going to need his first big payday soon. He still ended up getting a 4/120 contract.

 

[rzrback77]

Just my opinion here and I am just an NFL fan without access to any inside info.

Football is a team game and most NFL fans love their team and want them to be better and win more often. But, in today’s NFL most players focus first and foremost on themselves. Terry (and his agent) want their money. He is nearing the downhill slide and now is the best time to get it.

Washington’s owner and GM are just trying not to overpay for a player, getting close to the end. It has been discussed Terry has no perfect comps and NFL team execs don’t want to over commit.

Terry has already made more money than. He ever needs, but this is likely his last chance at maximizing. Both groups need each other and Washington is best fit for Terry.

I suspect they meet in the middle a week or maybe two from now, Terry adding a little guaranteed and Washington not overpaying and pleasing their fans who are so excited about their team this year.

 

[Da Franchise]

Oh and a really good argument I heard today that I have to agree with- every team in his own division has a better WR1 and you could even argue he’s closer to a couple WR2s than those above him.

Lamb, AJB, Nabers, DeVonta, Pickens…

You can’t give Jefferson money for that. It’s insane.

Whoa whoa whoa slow down there Tiger

Lamb, AJB, Target Dependent, Hasn't Been, Not Yet Diva Potential Future AB.

No one will argue Lamb or AJB. I also get that people love those tasty underpants Olympics measurables, but Terry's per game metrics easily stack against those other jokers and none of them have been nearly as consistently productive as Terry.

And, even if you allow those last three as "better" the point that is clearly missing is there is no one close to any of those guys behind McLaurin in Washington and they're not going to find one of those guys on, or after, 8/1/25.

They need to give him his "three year, $90 mil" deal with an actual guarantee around $56 mil.

Every team in the league would take Nabers over Terry.

Sure, of course they would. He's 22 years old with a great college pedigree, I would probably take him over Terry.

It doesn't make him better.

I think he's the real deal but let's see who he turns into. He had a monster 1,200 yard season as a rookie but he had an insane 170 targets. His overall metrics were pretty mid.

I think better QB play will turn him into an All-Pro but Terry has had as bad a QB roster for his career as anyone and he never had a y/r below 12.7, Malik was at 11 last year, or a yards/target of 7.1 (Terry's average over six seasons is 8.8 with a low of 7.6) or an ADOT of 9.1 (12.3 avg & 9.7 low).

Again Terry has had as poor a roster of QBs throwing to him as anyone.

I must reiterate that I probably choose Nabers over McLaurin, but Terry is being terribly underrated by the world.

And, the bottom line is Washington has nothing close to him on the roster. They need to pay him if they want to vie for a championship while Daniels is on his rookie deal.

Oh so age matters? This is the difficulty in extending Terry. (Nevermind that Nabers is actually a freak and already better anyway)

I have been touting Terry as underrated for years. Since he was a rookie. He deserves to be paid top 5-10 even though he’s more like top 10-20 in reality. All of a sudden everyone realizes it to the point he’s now being overrated.

A lot of people seem to be missing the simple truth. Washington wants to pay him. They’re almost certainly willing to go to $28M and maybe even $30M but they can’t start there because they won’t have anything left to concede when the negotiations start. Terry’s starting at Jefferson money. He’s drunk. When he and his moron agent decide to sober up, he’ll get paid.

And, the *actual* bottom line is Terry is under contract for this year and can be tagged next year. He can either 1) play or 2) not play and lose tens of millions of dollars, not accrue a year toward free agency, only to have the same choice all over again next year for his reward.

And despite those facts, Washington still wants to give him a very generous payday anyway.

Step off your pedestal for a moment. I think most people who are wise about football have realized that Terry has been underrated for quite some time now. This isn’t some breaking news. He’s just easy to not talk about because he’s not one to make a scene. Why is it okay for the organization to not start there but an issue for him to do so? I think that “he and his moron agent” know that he’s not going to get Jefferson money but what’s the real harm of starting higher and working his way down at this point? He wants one more big payday. They realize that the Commanders are riding high after last season and that there’s no way they go into this season with Deebo and Ertz as the top options in their receiving game.

Aiyuk is a bit younger but I seem to remember quite a few people saying he was wrong to hold out for his extension last year and that 49ers would hang more in the 28 per range (maybe even lower? I can’t remember the exact details now) when all was said and done. And this is a team with CMc, Deebo, and Kittle on the roster already and knowing that their former rookie QB was going to need his first big payday soon. He still ended up getting a 4/120 contract.

Why can’t he start at $35m? For the same reason you can’t list your $1M house at $1.5M. It’s a non-starter. You have to be tethered to reality when beginning a negotiation. Washington would have to open insultingly low.

The point I was making about his agent is that he has very few other clients and Terry is the only one that is remotely high profile. He’s getting bad advice from someone who doesn’t know what they’re doing. That’s like listing your $1M home with a realtor that doesn’t do any business and letting them put it on the market at $1.5M.

Aiyuk’s negotiation couldn’t be more different than this one and doesn’t forward the conversation.

Yes, Washington needs him this year. Good thing for them he’s under contract and either has to play or forfeit a ton of money. And they still want to pay him and get something done. If his side was being reasonable, this would already be finished. When he comes back to earth there’s about $60M waiting for him.

 

[Chaka]

Sure, of course they would. He's 22 years old with a great college pedigree, I would probably take him over Terry.

It doesn't make him better.

I think he's the real deal but let's see who he turns into. He had a monster 1,200 yard season as a rookie but he had an insane 170 targets. His overall metrics were pretty mid.

I think better QB play will turn him into an All-Pro but Terry has had as bad a QB roster for his career as anyone and he never had a y/r below 12.7 y/r, Malik was at 11 y/r last year, or a yards/target of 7.1 (Terry's average over six seasons is 8.8 with a low of 7.6) or an ADOT of 9.1 (12.3 avg & 9.7 low).

Again Terry has had as poor a roster of QBs throwing to him as anyone.

I must reiterate that I probably choose Nabers over McLaurin, but Terry is being terribly underrated by the world.

And, the bottom line is Washington has nothing close to him on the roster. They need to pay him if they want to vie for a championship while Daniels is on his rookie deal.

I was confused by this, so I re-did for everybody.

Terry's average depth of target, aDOT, is 12.3 for his career. His aDOT was 13.4 last year. His worst aDOT was 9.7 in 2020 and every other year is at least above 11.5.

Terry's receiving yards per target, Y/T, (which is not average depth of target nor air yards before catch) is 8.8 yards for his career. His worst season of Y/T was 7.6 yards (2020) like you're talking about. Last year's Y/T was 9.4 yards.

Terry's average yards before the catch per reception, YBC/R, (or average air yards per catch—I think they're synonymous) is 9.4 yards for his career and last year it was 9.8 yards. His low YBC/R was 7.4 yards in 2002.

Nabers' aDOT is 9.1 (there we go! Your presentation really confused me) his receiving yards per target is 7.1 and his average yards before the catch per reception (air yards before catch) is 6.8.

2024​	Receptions​	Yards​	Targets​	Catch Rate​	aDOT​	Y/T​	YBC/R (yards before catch/reception)​	YAC/R​
Terry McLaurin​	82​	1096​	118​	70.1​	13.4​	9.4​	9.8​	3.6​
Malik Nabers​	109​	1204​	170​	64.1​	9.1​	7.1​	6.8​	4.2​
Courtland Sutton​	81​	1081​	135​	60​	13.2​	8.0​	11.1​	2.2​
Calvin Ridley​	64​	1017​	120​	53.3​	15.3​	8.5​	10.5​	3.6​
D.K. Metcalf​	66​	992​	108​	61.1​	13.1​	9.2​	11.0​	4.0​
Mike Evans​	74​	1004​	110​	67.3​	11.6​	9.1​	10.5​	3.1​

Career​	Receptions​	Yards​	Targets​	Catch Rate​	aDOT​	Y/T​	YBC/R (air yards/reception)​	YAC/R​
Terry McLaurin​	460​	6379​	726​	63.4​	12.3​	8.8​	9.4​	4.5​
Malik Nabers​	109​	1096​	170​	64.1​	9.1​	7.1​	6.8​	4.2​
Courtland Sutton​	379​	5340​	646​	54.5​	13.0​	8.3​	11.1​	3.0​
Calvin Ridley​	388​	5375​	636​	61.0​	13.2​	8.5​	10.5​	3.3​
D.K. Metcalf​	438​	6324​	726​	60.3​	12.7​	8.7​	10.3​	4.1​
Mike Evans ('19-'04)​	441​	6581​	714​	62​	13.1​	9.21​	11.4​	3.52​

Conclusion: Evans is underpaid. So is Terry.

As for the career numbers, here is some context. McLaurin has played since 2019. Ridley since 2018 but missed a year due to suspension. Metcalf has been in the league since 2019. Sutton has been in the league since 2018 but lost a year to injury. That should help keep their careers all in context and it's why I only used from 2019-2024 for Evans. That gives us six years of recent performance for each player.

Source: Pro Football Reference.

Yeah, that's what I said.

 

[Chaka]

Oh and a really good argument I heard today that I have to agree with- every team in his own division has a better WR1 and you could even argue he’s closer to a couple WR2s than those above him.

Lamb, AJB, Nabers, DeVonta, Pickens…

You can’t give Jefferson money for that. It’s insane.

Whoa whoa whoa slow down there Tiger

Lamb, AJB, Target Dependent, Hasn't Been, Not Yet Diva Potential Future AB.

No one will argue Lamb or AJB. I also get that people love those tasty underpants Olympics measurables, but Terry's per game metrics easily stack against those other jokers and none of them have been nearly as consistently productive as Terry.

And, even if you allow those last three as "better" the point that is clearly missing is there is no one close to any of those guys behind McLaurin in Washington and they're not going to find one of those guys on, or after, 8/1/25.

They need to give him his "three year, $90 mil" deal with an actual guarantee around $56 mil.

Every team in the league would take Nabers over Terry.

Sure, of course they would. He's 22 years old with a great college pedigree, I would probably take him over Terry.

It doesn't make him better.

I think he's the real deal but let's see who he turns into. He had a monster 1,200 yard season as a rookie but he had an insane 170 targets. His overall metrics were pretty mid.

I think better QB play will turn him into an All-Pro but Terry has had as bad a QB roster for his career as anyone and he never had a y/r below 12.7, Malik was at 11 last year, or a yards/target of 7.1 (Terry's average over six seasons is 8.8 with a low of 7.6) or an ADOT of 9.1 (12.3 avg & 9.7 low).

Again Terry has had as poor a roster of QBs throwing to him as anyone.

I must reiterate that I probably choose Nabers over McLaurin, but Terry is being terribly underrated by the world.

And, the bottom line is Washington has nothing close to him on the roster. They need to pay him if they want to vie for a championship while Daniels is on his rookie deal.

Oh so age matters? This is the difficulty in extending Terry. (Nevermind that Nabers is actually a freak and already better anyway)

I have been touting Terry as underrated for years. Since he was a rookie. He deserves to be paid top 5-10 even though he’s more like top 10-20 in reality. All of a sudden everyone realizes it to the point he’s now being overrated.

A lot of people seem to be missing the simple truth. Washington wants to pay him. They’re almost certainly willing to go to $28M and maybe even $30M but they can’t start there because they won’t have anything left to concede when the negotiations start. Terry’s starting at Jefferson money. He’s drunk. When he and his moron agent decide to sober up, he’ll get paid.

And, the *actual* bottom line is Terry is under contract for this year and can be tagged next year. He can either 1) play or 2) not play and lose tens of millions of dollars, not accrue a year toward free agency, only to have the same choice all over again next year for his reward.

And despite those facts, Washington still wants to give him a very generous payday anyway.

Step off your pedestal for a moment. I think most people who are wise about football have realized that Terry has been underrated for quite some time now. This isn’t some breaking news. He’s just easy to not talk about because he’s not one to make a scene. Why is it okay for the organization to not start there but an issue for him to do so? I think that “he and his moron agent” know that he’s not going to get Jefferson money but what’s the real harm of starting higher and working his way down at this point? He wants one more big payday. They realize that the Commanders are riding high after last season and that there’s no way they go into this season with Deebo and Ertz as the top options in their receiving game.

Aiyuk is a bit younger but I seem to remember quite a few people saying he was wrong to hold out for his extension last year and that 49ers would hang more in the 28 per range (maybe even lower? I can’t remember the exact details now) when all was said and done. And this is a team with CMc, Deebo, and Kittle on the roster already and knowing that their former rookie QB was going to need his first big payday soon. He still ended up getting a 4/120 contract.

Why can’t he start at $35m? For the same reason you can’t list your $1M house at $1.5M. It’s a non-starter. You have to be tethered to reality when beginning a negotiation. Washington would have to open insultingly low.

The point I was making about his agent is that he has very few other clients and Terry is the only one that is remotely high profile. He’s getting bad advice from someone who doesn’t know what they’re doing.

Aiyuk’s negotiation couldn’t be more different than this one.

Yes, Washington needs him this year. Good thing for them he’s under contract and either has to play or forfeit a ton of money. And they still want to pay him and get something done. If his side was being reasonable, this would already be finished. When he comes back to earth there’s about $60M waiting for him.

Do we know what advice he is getting? Have there been "leaks" other than the one to Schefter?

What is the bar for a holdout being bad advice or good advice? Is it dependent on an agents roster of clients? Is Parsons getting bad advice or good advice?