What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

Your outlook on A Jones vs AJ Dillon (1 Viewer)

The Dude

Footballguy
Talk of them being 1A and 1B
Talk of each catching 50 passes

What's your take on the value/outlook of each compared to the other?
Where do you have them each ranked at RB?
Thoughts on drafting both in right rounds - and thoughts on starting both (1RB/1Flex)

Thanks
 

Shrek

Having a great season
Dillon is my choice this year. I'm reminded of that quote that says something like "If you're in love with two people, choose the second, because if you really loved the first one, you wouldn't have fallen for the second". It just feels like they want an excuse to give more to Dillon.
 

Biabreakable

Footballguy
I think both of them are quality RB but I sense that the coaches speak, comments from Rodgers, the perceived lack of receiver options and narratives that have built on that may be overly optimistic. I guess we will see.

While it makes sense for Dillon to get goal line opportunities due to his size and powerful running style Aaron Jones has an exceptional success rate in that role in the past so Im not sure about that.

Also Rodgers has a history of throwing a lot in goal line situations.

While I think they are both worth having I have been seeing more value in targeting Tonyan and Watkins.
 

Scooby1974

Footballguy
These guys both go pretty high for a 50/50 split. I too think the value may be in Tonyan and the rook WRs.

That said, I have Dillon and I'm hopeful he can get some more run.
 

Dark Matter

Footballguy
I ended up with them both on a couple of teams as DIllon dropped to far not to take him at that value. As stated in the OP, Jones as RB2 Dillon in the Flex. Going to be the modern day tandem of Taylor/Hornung! LFG!
 

Deamon

Footballguy
Talk of them being 1A and 1B
Talk of each catching 50 passes

What's your take on the value/outlook of each compared to the other?
Where do you have them each ranked at RB?
Thoughts on drafting both in right rounds - and thoughts on starting both (1RB/1Flex)

Thanks
Good topic. My 2 cents:

I think Jones could lead the packers in receptions this year. I think Dillon will lead the Packers in TDs this year.

In PPR it makes sense that Jones is still a good value at his ADP, and Dillon is a good value at his ADP.

In Standard, Jones is just an ok value at his ADP, and Dillon his a great value at his ADP.

I did something crazy and drafted them both last night, and am actually pretty excited about it. Jones mid 2nd, Dillon mid 4th. (Also went Chase+Higgins rounds 1 and 3... LOL will be a fun one)
 

Deamon

Footballguy
The thing is, if you have both... they might not both pan out to be value, but it's safe and has an incredibly high ceiling if one goes down. If one goes down, sure you have to slide someone else into your starting line up, but the other just instantly became a top 5 RB.
 

The Dude

Footballguy
I did something crazy and drafted them both last night, and am actually pretty excited about it. Jones mid 2nd, Dillon mid 4th. (Also went Chase+Higgins rounds 1 and 3... LOL will be a fun one)

I did the same with Jones in 2nd about at his ADP
Dillon in 5th was great value I couldn't pass on

But I am a little wary on it. Had both in the lineup but swapped Dillon out for Bateman
 

Deamon

Footballguy
I did the same with Jones in 2nd about at his ADP
Dillon in 5th was great value I couldn't pass on

But I am a little wary on it. Had both in the lineup but swapped Dillon out for Bateman
I mean of course it depends on your settings... is it standard or PPR and who is your other RB?
 

Deamon

Footballguy
Not sure about that but in 2011 Kamara and Ingram finished top 10 at RB while both with Saints
Think you meant 2017, but I stand corrected, looking at 2018 and 2019 ADP, both years Ingram was still being taken round 4/5 (Kamara round 1)
 

SoBeDad

Footballguy
They had similar stats for "and one" and "inside the 5 TD rate."

Jones was 7/9 (78%) and 4/8 (50%).
Dillon was 10/11 (91%) and 4/11 (36%).

Dillon is underrated as a receiver, catching 34 of 37 passes at 8.5 per pass play. I still think Jones is better as a receiver.

Courtesty of Fantasy Football Index.
 

Deamon

Footballguy
They had similar stats for "and one" and "inside the 5 TD rate."

Jones was 7/9 (78%) and 4/8 (50%).
Dillon was 10/11 (91%) and 4/11 (36%).

Dillon is underrated as a receiver.
He is, yes. But with the absolute **** show at WR in GB this year, they could potentially just make Jones a pseudo receiver which would mean a more traditional RB role for Dillon.
 

Gally

Footballguy
I like both of them to get you value based on where they are going. They are far and away the two best offensive pieces the Packers have (besides Rodgers of course). I see both of them being used a lot. In a PPR Jones is a great value at his late-ish 2rd ADP. I got him in that spot if he was still there. I also loved Dillon at his later ADP. I was able to get him in the 6/7 round in drafts a couple weeks ago but the problem lately has become someone being in on him and "reaching" in the 4th round to get him. I believe he will justify that draft spot when all is said and done but it sucks that you have to take him there.
 
They had similar stats for "and one" and "inside the 5 TD rate."

Jones was 7/9 (78%) and 4/8 (50%).
Dillon was 10/11 (91%) and 4/11 (36%).

Dillon is underrated as a receiver.
He is, yes. But with the absolute **** show at WR in GB this year, they could potentially just make Jones a pseudo receiver which would mean a more traditional RB role for Dillon.
Agree with this. The last time we saw the Packers in a game that mattered, Rodgers only trusted two guys to make plays in the passing game - Jones and Adams. Lazard has never been reliable and isn’t practicing again today actually. Think they’ll use Jones however they need to. He’ll catch a ton of passes this year. I don’t see any downside to him. Dillon usage will also be high.

If either gets injured, the other is gold. Both solid value either way. Rodgers will make plays. Opportunities will be there.
 

Gally

Footballguy
Both being overdrafted, in particular Dillon.
I think Dillon is getting close to that but still a value. Jones I think is in a sweet spot for PPR at the end of the second and early 3rd so good value there. If he crept up to the end of round 1 then I would say overdrafted.
 

Deamon

Footballguy
I think Dillon is getting close to that but still a value. Jones I think is in a sweet spot for PPR at the end of the second and early 3rd so good value there. If he crept up to the end of round 1 then I would say overdrafted.
Ya I've seen Jones between picks 15-20 in all my drafts. Pretty consistant.

Still not sure how Dillon being drafted BELOW where he finished last year, could be overdrafted
 

The Dude

Footballguy
Not sure about that but in 2011 Kamara and Ingram finished top 10 at RB while both with Saints
Think you meant 2017, but I stand corrected, looking at 2018 and 2019 ADP, both years Ingram was still being taken round 4/5 (Kamara round 1)

RIght I should have said since 2011they were the only pair to do it - but how many teams have had the 2 deep RB quality to make it work?

half ppr league for me
 

mphtrilogy

Footballguy
with the drop in talent, I have to believe they want the best players on the field as much as possible, two rb sets and split wide outs from Jones who has great hands should be used a lot in the passing game imho... interesting to watch this develop this year... Dallas with Pollard/Elliot is pretty similar with the loss of Cooper, but GB seems more willing to get Dillon legit meaningful reps and he's a young powerful back and looks primed to rock this year
 

Scooby1974

Footballguy
They had similar stats for "and one" and "inside the 5 TD rate."

Jones was 7/9 (78%) and 4/8 (50%).
Dillon was 10/11 (91%) and 4/11 (36%).

Dillon is underrated as a receiver.
He is, yes. But with the absolute **** show at WR in GB this year, they could potentially just make Jones a pseudo receiver which would mean a more traditional RB role for Dillon.
I'm hoping this is the way GB goes. Get Jones out in space and Dillon in the backfield. But also throw it deep 4 times for TD's to Christian Watson...after I pick him up.
 

TripItUp

Footballguy
Both being overdrafted, in particular Dillon.
I think Dillon is getting close to that but still a value. Jones I think is in a sweet spot for PPR at the end of the second and early 3rd so good value there. If he crept up to the end of round 1 then I would say overdrafted.

I'll elaborate a little, pretty busy at work today...

It feels like both are being drafted at their ceiling and the timeshare is a huge part of that. You win fantasy leagues typically by not drafting players at their ceiling. In the early rounds I'm not a proponent of the argument "if the other guys gets injured then he'll be huge" mentality...it's extremely lazy IMHO.

At both of their ADPs there are just other players I'd rather have because I believe in their ceilings more.

I have Jones in some best balls but I have zero shares of Dillon in any format. The great part is we get to see who is right.
 

Sasgaard

Footballguy
I think one of them needs to be injured for the other one to be really a factor. Do we really want to start on a weekly basis either one of them knowing their share 50/50 the backfield in most weeks and on any given week, one of them can get more touches than the other? it's too much of a gamble for me as long as they are both healthy. Now, if one get injured, the remaining one is an automatic must start.
 

TampaMike19

Footballguy
Dillon is Ingram, Jones is Kamara. Prefer Jones in every format since targets are crazy more valuable than runs. Dillon is best used to punish defenders- Jones is best used in space. Hopefully LaFleur sees that .
 

Leroy Hoard

Footballguy
I think one of them needs to be injured for the other one to be really a factor. Do we really want to start on a weekly basis either one of them knowing their share 50/50 the backfield in most weeks and on any given week, one of them can get more touches than the other? it's too much of a gamble for me as long as they are both healthy. Now, if one get injured, the remaining one is an automatic must start.
A big enough pie can feed more than one. The GB running game figures to be a big pie.
 

Deamon

Footballguy
I think one of them needs to be injured for the other one to be really a factor. Do we really want to start on a weekly basis either one of them knowing their share 50/50 the backfield in most weeks and on any given week, one of them can get more touches than the other? it's too much of a gamble for me as long as they are both healthy. Now, if one get injured, the remaining one is an automatic must start.
Last year they finished as an RB1 (RB7) and as an RB2 (RB20) and they both played together every game except 1.

Not sure your point here.... are you suggesting the same thing couldn't happen this year?

Even if they drop in production this year, Jones' RB11 and Dillon' RB22 ADPS will both be good values.
 

Gally

Footballguy
I think one of them needs to be injured for the other one to be really a factor. Do we really want to start on a weekly basis either one of them knowing their share 50/50 the backfield in most weeks and on any given week, one of them can get more touches than the other? it's too much of a gamble for me as long as they are both healthy. Now, if one get injured, the remaining one is an automatic must start.
I disagree with this. I think they both can be a factor even if they are both healthy. Look at last year. They both were a factor and played all but I think 1 week together. I see GB relying even more on them with no Adams as these are their two best playmakers. I think their floors are high with the upside of top 5 if there is an injury.
 

Gally

Footballguy
It feels like both are being drafted at their ceiling and the timeshare is a huge part of that. You win fantasy leagues typically by not drafting players at their ceiling. In the early rounds I'm not a proponent of the argument "if the other guys gets injured then he'll be huge" mentality...it's extremely lazy IMHO.
I think they were both being drafted at either their mid point or lesser (Dillon is moving up too much to be a great value). I think there is room from them to return value at their current ADP's even without an injury. The injury part just gives a path to even more value. I like both even without an injury.
 

BassNBrew

IBL Representative
Not sure about that but in 2011 Kamara and Ingram finished top 10 at RB while both with Saints
Think you meant 2017, but I stand corrected, looking at 2018 and 2019 ADP, both years Ingram was still being taken round 4/5 (Kamara round 1)

RIght I should have said since 2011they were the only pair to do it - but how many teams have had the 2 deep RB quality to make it work?

half ppr league for me

DeAngelo Williams / James Stewart​

Chubb / Hunt
 

jvdesigns2002

Footballguy
I think both have the potential to deliver nice value if they can stay healthy. The Packers lost Adams and while they did get a couple rookie wr’s—it will take time for Rodgers to develop chemistry with them. I think the Packers will have to show a larger commitment to the rushing game—and I do think they will pass to their rb’s a decent amount. I think that if neither get hurt—Jones could be a top 10-12 rb (which is right where he’s going) and I think Dillon is probably a back end RB2–(top 20ish)—which is right around where he is getting drafted RB22. However, out of the two —If I had to draft one—I’d go with Dillon. I like other options where Jones is getting drafted. Also—there is less room for profit on Jones in my opinion. With Dillon—there is room for profit. If Jones were to get hurt—Dillon instantly becomes a top 10-12 back—and possibly a top 5-7 back.
 
Have we EVER seen 2 rbs from the same team going in the first 5 rounds of fantasy?
My first thought was Ingram and Kamara 2018 and sure enough in one of my drafts Kamara went in the 1st and Ingram in the 5th.

2017 Ingram/Kamara is the ideal outcome for Jones/Dillon. It’s a stretch goal but it’s at least in the range of possible outcomes.

I drafted them both in a league this year.
 

Jamesinaz

Footballguy
I agree with the assessment of the two players. I like both. But Jones was taken in the 3.1 slot of my 12 team redraft non-PPR league. My first two picks were Chase and Chubb. When Dillon slid to the 6th round I took him with 6.3. My RBs are not the strength of the team so he helped a lot there. I am banking on (Praying?) Mitchell staying healthy and Chubb/Mitchell/Dillon holding down the fort.
 

TampaMike19

Footballguy
Not a single person talks about what if Aj Dillon goes down- what happens to Jones stock? It’s always the other way around when people talk about Aaron Jones going down lol
 

Dacomish

Footballguy
I like them both, and have Dillon. The main reason I went for Dillon is Lambeau in Nov/Dec/Jan is brutal and Dillon will thrive on that cold weather running game - Imagine Dillon and those monster quads churning away on that frozen tundra.....that's just mental!
 

DocHolliday

Footballguy
Dillon is Ingram, Jones is Kamara. Prefer Jones in every format since targets are crazy more valuable than runs. Dillon is best used to punish defenders- Jones is best used in space. Hopefully LaFleur sees that .
I think Jones is in for a monster year and is going to deliver in PPR leagues. Dillon will do fine but Jones should see many more touches.
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Top