What I have done is what I usually do. I pulled a lot of resources and information together such as these 19 scouting service rankings and averaged them. To form a sort of ADP based on scout and media sources who will undoubtedly tell us how teams did not get good value for their picks when they draft them outside of where they have them ranked, while also telling us how teams got steals because they were able to draft players later than they have them ranked. They will grade the drafts much the same as how they ranked players prior to the draft with some exceptions. So in this sense while the ADP will most certainly change post NFL draft, the pundits will continue to sing the same tune just the second verse of what we have been hearing from them the past few months leading up to the draft.
At the same time as rankings get compared, debated and refined, a consensus does form. So to evaluate this I took all of these draft rankings and averaged them into a form of average draft position. I think this can be improved with mock draft information and polls, but that data is somewhat sparse pre nfl draft, so the rankings seem like the best place to look for what the average FF owner may have read and thinks about players in this draft class.
Not all of these scouting services are equal. Tick was telling me he likes to do this with only a few rankings that he trusts more than others, or to give those he trusts more weight in the average. I agree with him for making a ranking of your big board. However I think using many scouting services is the way to go to find what most of your competition will be thinking for their big boards/average draft position. I eliminated players who were not ranked in the top 25 on at least 10 of the 19 rankings that I used. So I recognize this list is a bit short and few of the outlier players may still be relevant. Post Nfl draft if any of these players are drafted fairly high into a good position for opportunity I will add them to the list of draftable players but for now I will only list the guys who were ranked top 25 by at least 10 of the 19 I used.
So here is the average ranking from the 19 scouting services I compiled in order of how they were ranked on average-
Lacy
Franklin
Bernard
Ball
Ellington
Bell
Michael
Randle
Gillislee
Taylor
Lattimore
Stacy
Davis
I just wanted to note that Joseph Randle is often ranked in the top 10 on many of these 19 lists yet I have hardly heard any talk about him around here. I wonder why that is?
I consider this stand alone for an idea of when your competition may be looking to draft specific players, now I want to transform this into something closer to my big board.
I want to give some consideration to player performance in college. I will be the first person to tell you that comparing college performance between players is rarely an apple to apple comparison. So many teams are of unequal talent level and many of the games are one sided, this is part of why I do not like college football, and why I think it is very difficult to evaluate a players performance at the college level, because so many of these variables are very lopsided. So from that perspective a player who does very well from a smaller school (less supporting talent) against top level talent is more impressive to me than a player from a elite team running rough shod over a much weaker team.
Now this could be a topic onto itself, as far as how to best evaluate college performance, and how much consideration one should give to it when evaluating rookie prospects and ranking them. I do not have a good answer for this and I am curious what others ideas might be, but I really like the work that ZWK did that measures rookie prospect performance in college and ranks them by that information, using some pretty well thought out measurements of the college performance. So I wanted to include this objective evaluation (except for the lack of level playing between college teams and conferences) of college performance and give that similar weight to the average scouting ranking, though not quite as much.
The third part of this is taking into consideration the combine measurables, which are an apples to apples objective comparison that shows not only a players natural talent and ability but also how well they prepare to achieve a goal in their performance, which can translate into work ethic and ability to develop new skills with coaching. This should be the smallest part of the combined evaluation, but with many similar prospects in this draft class this is the type of thing that can make a difference enough to rank the higher performing players over some of the others.
So what I did is use the combined ranking from ZWKs thread
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=678724#entry15376922 post 15 and reranked these 13 players by their performance ranking. I then combined the ADP data with this performance ranking for the 13 players which after the adjustment leaves them ranked this
Lacy
Franklin
Bernard
Michael
Bell
Ball
Ellington
Stacy
Davis
Randle
Lattimore
Gillislee
Taylor
My final ranking pre-nfl draft ranking for these 13 RB-
Lacy
Bernard
Michael
Stacy
Franklin
Bell
Ellington
Davis
Lattimore
Ball
Randle
Gillislee
Taylor