You're losing, fourth and one at the 25, 2:30 left, 1 timeout (1 Viewer)

[CalBear]

Spin-off of the down by 15 thread:

Time is running out. You have the ball on the opponent's 25, fourth and one with 2:30 left in the game. You have one timeout left. Assume both teams are league-average.

Three different scenarios: You're down by 7, 8, or 9 points. What choice do you make in each of those scenarios? What is your reasoning?

 

[FreeBaGeL]

The first two are easy. There are two ways you can get the ball 1st and 10 at the 24 yard line with a reasonable amount of time left.

1) Force a 3 and out and drive ~45 yards in about 35 seconds.

2) Gain one yard.

The chances of #2 are much higher than #1. The tradeoff that you're only playing for a tie instead of a win (which doesn't even account for the chance that you miss the field goal) doesn't even come close to making up for it.

As for #3, you have to score a touchdown eventually anyway and only needing a FG as compared to a TD on your last drive (which will likely take place with under a minute left and no timeouts) is a HUGE difference. It's worth risking the 4th and 1 for.

 

[Warrior]

wtf is the score?

 

[CalBear]

wtf is the score?

You're down by 7, 8, or 9. It has been an average game, not a particularly defensive or offensive one. If you must put numbers on it, your opponent has 28 and you have 19, 20, or 21. [but I don't think it really matters.]

 

[footballnerd]

1st two you go for it. last you kick

Favre would go for the 25 yd jugular

 

[bigmarc27]

Go for it

Go for it

Field Goal

 

[footballnerd]

anyone care to explain why they voted to go for it on #3?

 

[10tihwj]

You clearly go for it down 7 or 8. I can't think of a single appreciable reason not to go for it there. Of course I'm in the camp that would probably go for it in that scenario more often than not anyway.

As to the 9 points, it's hard to justify going for it. The only justifiable thoughts (and I'd still kick the FG) are that your FG kicker isn't clutch, is hurt, or is in a slump.

There's just so much bad there. If you go for it and you get it, you're going to run off time trying to score the TD, will need to onside kick the ball to try and get the FG and now require everything to go right in order to win.

If you kick the FG and then kick deep, you can probably force the opponent to run two plays before the 2:00 warning and you virtually eliminate the pass play from their arsenal because an incomplete pass in this situation gives you way too much time to work with at the end of the game.

 

[Anarchy99]

anyone care to explain why they voted to go for it on #3?

I am torn which way to vote on #3. The reason you would go for it is that you would need to get fewer total yards to still have a shot at a FG later.If you kick the FG and make it, try an onside kick and recover, you have roughly 60 yards to go for a TD.If you go for it and make it and continue on for a TD that's 25 yards. Recovering an onside kick at your own 40, you would only need 20 more yards to get into deep feel goal range. That would be a total of 45 yards altogether. Granted, that would be a low percentage FG. Clearly if you wanted to kick from the 25 then the total yardage needed would be the same.The other potential option is that if you make it and can score a TD before the two minute warning, you could potentially hold the other team to a 3 and out and still get the ball back even if you didn't try or recover an onside kick and would thus have another option or chance to regain the ball to make a last gasp FG.

 

[Doug Drinen]

I just popped in to give a quick vote for:

DO NOT USE THE TIMEOUT TO "TALK IT OVER"!!!!!!

 

[SWC]

1st two you go for it. last you kickFavre would go for the 25 yd jugular

And it would be an interception after which he would wiener text four sideline reporters.

 

[ffgamer]

I just popped in to give a quick vote forO NOT USE THE TIMEOUT TO "TALK IT OVER"!!!!!!

 

[rick6668]

Down by 8, it depends if you will make the 2pt conv. If you will, you should go for it, if you won't you should kick the FG.

Too bad you didn't go for 2 when you scored your last TD so you'd already know.

 

[CalBear]

Down by 8, it depends if you will make the 2pt conv. If you will, you should go for it, if you won't you should kick the FG.Too bad you didn't go for 2 when you scored your last TD so you'd already know.

That was, of course, the point of this thread.

 

[westbrook36]

1+2 you clearly go for it. 3 is tempting to go for it, because your at the 25, but having the clock against you, needing two scores, you kick the fg.

 

[gradin123]

A lot of Variables. The answer isn't always the same. Quality of kicker? Weather? How good is your offense? How good is the defense you are up against? If you kick the field goal and then kickoff normally are you confident your D can get a 3 and out?

Generally though I would go for it because it is only 4th and 1. Yes you need 2 scores but getting the TD out of the way first would be a huge plus and the chances of converting on 4th and 1 are very good.

Also, a 43 yard field goal is far from a chip shot.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Down by 8, it depends if you will make the 2pt conv. If you will, you should go for it, if you won't you should kick the FG.Too bad you didn't go for 2 when you scored your last TD so you'd already know.

That was, of course, the point of this thread.

You are a wise man.

 

[cheese]

Going with the majority here. GO GO KICK

 

[H.K.]

Down by 8, it depends if you will make the 2pt conv. If you will, you should go for it, if you won't you should kick the FG.Too bad you didn't go for 2 when you scored your last TD so you'd already know.

That was, of course, the point of this thread.

You are a wise man.

That is why SP coaches are the best. They know ahead of time whether or not they will convert the 2 point conversion.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

Down by 8, it depends if you will make the 2pt conv. If you will, you should go for it, if you won't you should kick the FG.Too bad you didn't go for 2 when you scored your last TD so you'd already know.

That was, of course, the point of this thread.

You are a wise man.

That is why SP coaches are the best. They know ahead of time whether or not they will convert the 2 point conversion.

You need an air traffic controller to direct all the things going over your head.

 

[JKL]

Yeah, but the defense also knows what you need too, depending on the score, so they can actually dictate to you what decision you must make. It's a wash since both sides know.

 

[H.K.]

Down by 8, it depends if you will make the 2pt conv. If you will, you should go for it, if you won't you should kick the FG.

Too bad you didn't go for 2 when you scored your last TD so you'd already know.

That was, of course, the point of this thread.

You are a wise man.

That is why SP coaches are the best. They know ahead of time whether or not they will convert the 2 point conversion.

You need an air traffic controller to direct all the things going over your head.

No, but I would need ESP to know if I'll make the 2 pointer when I am down by 8.

 

[CalBear]

No, but I would need ESP to know if I'll make the 2 pointer when I am down by 8.

Exactly, which is why when you're down 15 and just scored a TD, you go for 2, so you know what to do when you're in this situation later.

 

[The Iguana]

I think you go for it in all 3. The first 2 are relatively obvious. The 3rd one maybe not so much.

In the 3rd one if you kick the field goal then you have 2 options... onside kick or kick away. If you are going to onside kick, then you might as well go for the TD now rather than wait until later. Since you are way you are going to have to recover the onside kick then use the field position to to get the first down and score the TD early. Then you need fewer yards after the onside to kick the field goal.

If you are going to kick away then best case scenario (barring a muffed/fumbled kickoff), you are getting the ball at your 20ish with about 1:15 left on the clock, no timeouts and need a TD to score.

Now, if it's 4th and 5 or something similar/longer then getting the 1st down becomes less and less likely and kicking the FG is the way to go. Depending on how long a 4th down you have, kicking a FG may be the right move when down 7 or 8 as well.

 

[H.K.]

No, but I would need ESP to know if I'll make the 2 pointer when I am down by 8.

Exactly, which is why when you're down 15 and just scored a TD, you go for 2, so you know what to do when you're in this situation later.

If you are attempting to carry this over from the other thread, then you must have known ahead of time what would have transpired from the 7 minute mark to the 2:30 mark to be be down by this margin at this point. Knowing the future does offer quite the advantage.

 

[The Iguana]

i apparently don't speak english very well today.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

That is why SP coaches are the best. They know ahead of time whether or not they will convert the 2 point conversion.

You need an air traffic controller to direct all the things going over your head.

No, but I would need ESP to know if I'll make the 2 pointer when I am down by 8.

No one but you has suggested that anyone would know whether or not a 2-pt conversion is successful before they attempt it. In fact, that's exactly the point.

 

[H.K.]

That is why SP coaches are the best. They know ahead of time whether or not they will convert the 2 point conversion.

You need an air traffic controller to direct all the things going over your head.

No, but I would need ESP to know if I'll make the 2 pointer when I am down by 8.

No one but you has suggested that anyone would know whether or not a 2-pt conversion is successful before they attempt it. In fact, that's exactly the point.

Down by 8, it depends if you will make the 2pt conv. If you will, you should go for it, if you won't you should kick the FG.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

Down by 8, it depends if you will make the 2pt conv. If you will, you should go for it, if you won't you should kick the FG.

Yes, that's exactly the point that went over your head. He's not saying you'd ever know in advance - the point he's making is quite the opposite, actually.

 

[H.K.]

Down by 8, it depends if you will make the 2pt conv. If you will, you should go for it, if you won't you should kick the FG.

Yes, that's exactly the point that went over your head. He's not saying you'd ever know in advance - the point he's making is quite the opposite, actually.

1) No, it did not go over my head because that is not how it is worded nor how it was presented based on this thread's specific scenario.2) Trying to justify a decision made at the 7 minute mark because you knew there would be no change to the margin in the score at the 2:30 mark is still claiming to know the future before it happens.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

Down by 8, it depends if you will make the 2pt conv. If you will, you should go for it, if you won't you should kick the FG.

Yes, that's exactly the point that went over your head. He's not saying you'd ever know in advance - the point he's making is quite the opposite, actually.

1) No, it did not go over my head because that is not how it is worded nor how it was presented based on this thread's specific scenario.

2) Trying to justify a decision made at the 7 minute mark because you knew there would be no change to the margin in the score at the 2:30 mark is still claiming to know the future before it happens.

Again, no one has claimed any kind of ability to know any future events. You're refuting an argument that no one has made.

 

[DawnBTVS]

Voted Go For It on all 3.

Even down by 9, you risk missing the field goal and giving them time to force you to use up your timeout, hit the 2:00, and run out the clock. Which case you would still need 9 points if you stopped them after the 2:00. Best case, I make the FG and kick deep, stop them, and try for a TD drive. It's a lot harder trying to score a TD on your final drive than kicking a FG.

I want to win the game, not play not to lose. Worst case, I get stuffed and the above scenario occurs anyway. Best case, I get the 1st down and eventually a TD. If I can score before the 2:00, that gives me 2 timeouts to work with allowing me to kick deep and hope I stop them defensively.

 

[puckalicious]

I haven't checked the odds in awhile (Advanced NFL Stats), but I thought that the expected points of attempting a 42yd FG is less than the expected points when trying to convert a 4th & 1 ?

If so, then there is no reason to ever go for the field goal, regardless of score.

 

[killrobotkill]

I'd go for it down by 9 too. You have to get two scores to win, and one of those scores has to be a touchdown. If you're 25 yards away and only have to get one yard next play, this is probably the best chance you'll have to get that touchdown. 4th and 1 is a pretty high percentage play anyway (I think I read an 80% conversion rate somewhere).

Besides, you're going to need one more possession with probably < 1:00 left. In a hurry-up drive like that, it gives you a lot more options if you're only playing for a FG than if you're forced to score a TD there.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

I haven't checked the odds in awhile (Advanced NFL Stats), but I thought that the expected points of attempting a 42yd FG is less than the expected points when trying to convert a 4th & 1 ?If so, then there is no reason to ever go for the field goal, regardless of score.

You have to look at those stats in context, though. If you're down by two with three seconds left, attempting the FG is definitely the right play. Expected points doesn't tell the whole story (which is why sometimes it's the right play to go for 2, even though the expected points on a 2-point conversion is lower than the expected points on a PAT). If you're down by 9 with 2:30 left to play, going for it there on 4th down might have more (time-independent) expected points, but it doesn't mean it's the right call. It does you no good to score a TD on that possession if it takes 2:30 to do it.

 

[puckalicious]

I haven't checked the odds in awhile (Advanced NFL Stats), but I thought that the expected points of attempting a 42yd FG is less than the expected points when trying to convert a 4th & 1 ?If so, then there is no reason to ever go for the field goal, regardless of score.

You have to look at those stats in context, though. If you're down by two with three seconds left, attempting the FG is definitely the right play. Expected points doesn't tell the whole story (which is why sometimes it's the right play to go for 2, even though the expected points on a 2-point conversion is lower than the expected points on a PAT). If you're down by 9 with 2:30 left to play, going for it there on 4th down might have more (time-independent) expected points, but it doesn't mean it's the right call. It does you no good to score a TD on that possession if it takes 2:30 to do it.

In regards to the game clock, of course. I didn't say regardless of time left. If you can't score a TD from the opposing 25 in 2:30, what makes you think you can do it from your own 20 after having kicked a FG, and forced a 3-and-out, and received a punt? You need a TD no matter what, and I'm pretty sure the odds of getting it from 4th&1 at the opossing 25 is better than getting it from 1st&10 at your own 20 with less than 2 minutes, probably less than 1 minute.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

I haven't checked the odds in awhile (Advanced NFL Stats), but I thought that the expected points of attempting a 42yd FG is less than the expected points when trying to convert a 4th & 1 ?If so, then there is no reason to ever go for the field goal, regardless of score.

You have to look at those stats in context, though. If you're down by two with three seconds left, attempting the FG is definitely the right play. Expected points doesn't tell the whole story (which is why sometimes it's the right play to go for 2, even though the expected points on a 2-point conversion is lower than the expected points on a PAT). If you're down by 9 with 2:30 left to play, going for it there on 4th down might have more (time-independent) expected points, but it doesn't mean it's the right call. It does you no good to score a TD on that possession if it takes 2:30 to do it.

In regards to the game clock, of course. I didn't say regardless of time left. If you can't score a TD from the opposing 25 in 2:30, what makes you think you can do it from your own 20 after having kicked a FG, and forced a 3-and-out, and received a punt? You need a TD no matter what, and I'm pretty sure the odds of getting it from 4th&1 at the opossing 25 is better than getting it from 1st&10 at your own 20 with less than 2 minutes, probably less than 1 minute.

Oh, I'm not necessarily disputing that you should go for it on the 4th down at the 25. You might be right, I haven't even really thought about it much. I was just providing a counterpoint to the comment, "there is no reason to ever go for the field goal, regardless of score." That's not necessarily true, and it seemed like you were basing that comment on expected points.

 

[H.K.]

2) Trying to justify a decision made at the 7 minute mark because you knew there would be no change to the margin in the score at the 2:30 mark is still claiming to know the future before it happens.

Again, no one has claimed any kind of ability to know any future events. You're refuting an argument that no one has made.

It's all over the place as a carry over from the other thread.

Too bad you didn't go for 2 when you scored your last TD so you'd already know.

Exactly, which is why when you're down 15 and just scored a TD, you go for 2, so you know what to do when you're in this situation later.

Must be nice to know ahead of time the margin will stay constant and the opposition doesn't kick a field goal in the interim, or there are no other changes to the score.Time for me to spit out the hook and swim away, though.

 

[Warhogs]

I said go for it in all cases. I understand the argument for kicking the FG in scenario 3 but you still need a TD and I would rather take my chances in converting a 4th and 1 at this point rather then trying to get the ball back and having to drive into the endzone at that point.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

Must be nice to know ahead of time the margin will stay constant and the opposition doesn't kick a field goal in the interim, or there are no other changes to the score.

Sure, your opponent might kick a field goal. Or they might score a TD. Or they might fumble the ensuing kickoff and you pick it up and return it for a TD, but then get the PAT blocked. Or any number of other possible scenarios could occur. No one has claimed to know that any of those things will or won't happen. If you're trying to make the point that the potential for finding yourself down by 12 points is the reason you wouldn't risk going for 2 when down by 15, then just say so. Don't attribute ridiculous non-arguments to others and then pretend to refute them.

 

[puckalicious]

I haven't checked the odds in awhile (Advanced NFL Stats), but I thought that the expected points of attempting a 42yd FG is less than the expected points when trying to convert a 4th & 1 ?If so, then there is no reason to ever go for the field goal, regardless of score.

You have to look at those stats in context, though. If you're down by two with three seconds left, attempting the FG is definitely the right play. Expected points doesn't tell the whole story (which is why sometimes it's the right play to go for 2, even though the expected points on a 2-point conversion is lower than the expected points on a PAT). If you're down by 9 with 2:30 left to play, going for it there on 4th down might have more (time-independent) expected points, but it doesn't mean it's the right call. It does you no good to score a TD on that possession if it takes 2:30 to do it.

In regards to the game clock, of course. I didn't say regardless of time left. If you can't score a TD from the opposing 25 in 2:30, what makes you think you can do it from your own 20 after having kicked a FG, and forced a 3-and-out, and received a punt? You need a TD no matter what, and I'm pretty sure the odds of getting it from 4th&1 at the opossing 25 is better than getting it from 1st&10 at your own 20 with less than 2 minutes, probably less than 1 minute.

Oh, I'm not necessarily disputing that you should go for it on the 4th down at the 25. You might be right, I haven't even really thought about it much. I was just providing a counterpoint to the comment, "there is no reason to ever go for the field goal, regardless of score." That's not necessarily true, and it seemed like you were basing that comment on expected points.

Right, see your point. I didn't clarify that my comment was in respect to this thread's assumptions.

 

[H.K.]

Must be nice to know ahead of time the margin will stay constant and the opposition doesn't kick a field goal in the interim, or there are no other changes to the score.

Sure, your opponent might kick a field goal. Or they might score a TD. Or they might fumble the ensuing kickoff and you pick it up and return it for a TD, but then get the PAT blocked. Or any number of other possible scenarios could occur. No one has claimed to know that any of those things will or won't happen. If you're trying to make the point that the potential for finding yourself down by 12 points is the reason you wouldn't risk going for 2 when down by 15, then just say so. Don't attribute ridiculous non-arguments to others and then pretend to refute them.

X

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

Must be nice to know ahead of time the margin will stay constant and the opposition doesn't kick a field goal in the interim, or there are no other changes to the score.

Sure, your opponent might kick a field goal. Or they might score a TD. Or they might fumble the ensuing kickoff and you pick it up and return it for a TD, but then get the PAT blocked. Or any number of other possible scenarios could occur. No one has claimed to know that any of those things will or won't happen. If you're trying to make the point that the potential for finding yourself down by 12 points is the reason you wouldn't risk going for 2 when down by 15, then just say so. Don't attribute ridiculous non-arguments to others and then pretend to refute them.

X

I assume you have a link?

 

[H.K.]

Must be nice to know ahead of time the margin will stay constant and the opposition doesn't kick a field goal in the interim, or there are no other changes to the score.

Sure, your opponent might kick a field goal. Or they might score a TD. Or they might fumble the ensuing kickoff and you pick it up and return it for a TD, but then get the PAT blocked. Or any number of other possible scenarios could occur. No one has claimed to know that any of those things will or won't happen. If you're trying to make the point that the potential for finding yourself down by 12 points is the reason you wouldn't risk going for 2 when down by 15, then just say so. Don't attribute ridiculous non-arguments to others and then pretend to refute them.

X

I assume you have a link?

You're in it.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

Must be nice to know ahead of time the margin will stay constant and the opposition doesn't kick a field goal in the interim, or there are no other changes to the score.

Sure, your opponent might kick a field goal. Or they might score a TD. Or they might fumble the ensuing kickoff and you pick it up and return it for a TD, but then get the PAT blocked. Or any number of other possible scenarios could occur. No one has claimed to know that any of those things will or won't happen. If you're trying to make the point that the potential for finding yourself down by 12 points is the reason you wouldn't risk going for 2 when down by 15, then just say so. Don't attribute ridiculous non-arguments to others and then pretend to refute them.

X

I assume you have a link?

You're in it.

You're not very good at this.

 

[H.K.]

You're not very good at this.

Careful now, behave yourself.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

You're not very good at this.

Careful now, behave yourself.

 

[renesauz]

The odds of a two point conversion are higher then an on-side kick recovery. You go for it down 8.

Down nine, you go for it only if your kicker has been sucky. A 42 yard FG is no gimme if he's been shaky. BUt if he's solid, you have to kick it since you'll need a FG at some point anyway.

 

[THE SNOWMAN]

Your at their 25 .. who knows if you will get that close again .. I say go for it.

 

[RhymesMcJuice]

As for #3, you have to score a touchdown eventually anyway and only needing a FG as compared to a TD on your last drive (which will likely take place with under a minute left and no timeouts) is a HUGE difference. It's worth risking the 4th and 1 for.

I see this happen too often that a team goes for it in this situation and they run out the clock trying to get the TD. Usually they make a play that ends up in bounds and short of the GL and the team has to burn a TO.Also, if the 4th and 1 fails, the game is over and I prefer to keep the team in it until the end.The right call IMO is to kick the FG since there are a lot of ways to get a TD once you get the ball back even with no TO's.