I thought a lot about this and I am not sure you are right. But I am not numbers enough inclined to figure it out
You purchase 4 annual passes every year and go to the parks every year. That has to add up to more than someone who goes once every 3-4 years. Even if you are a DVC member
I am not a DVC member and have gone every year since 2008. I can not see how they dont make more on us, who continue to come back because we saw the value. Im not ready to jump ship, but the value is slowly declining
while we will never really know, there are few things that point in that direction.
In 2018, Walt Disney World was the most visited vacation resort in the world, with an average annual attendance of more than 58 million. (
source 3rd paragraph down) I picked 2018 b/c it was before the lockdowns.
To try and break down repeat vs casual guests, first let's look at DVC, which many would consider make up a good chunk of the repeat guests. There are 3,550 DVC rooms on property (WDW Only
source), figure average of 3-4 guests per room, and if every room is booked, thats 14,200 guests on property at any day. Multiply that by 365 (again assuming every DVC room is sold out every day to 4 people) that only 5,183,00 guests per year via DVC. (as if 5mil guests is "only")
that still leaves 53 million guests remaining.
Locals are a part of it but not nearly as large of a percentage as Disneyland
The WDW resort has over 30,000 rooms and there are an additional 10,000 in the surrounding hotels resorts (
source). Again, using the 4 guests per room average, thats 160,000 guests per day. Even if you split that 50/50 repeat to 1st timers, you are looking at 60,000 1st time guests a day, or 29 million.
So what do casual guests do that repeat guests don't? Given that we know the systems well enough and have growing children that eventually move out of the "princess mode"
• Bibbity bobbpity boutique and all the trimmings
• Desert parties: Once you've seen the fireworks 10x, paying for that perfect view is less important
• Dining plan: Even as a big fan my first few trips, its pretty much proven that the DDP makes WDW money (or else why would they offer it). Causal guests almost always over plan when it comes to food and will almost always leave credits behind.
• "Gotta have it" merch like Balloons and glow toys: Every time I walk down main st I wonder why there are still so many ballon vendors. Who is buying this crap, esp when they are such a pain to carry around? Causal park goers.
• Merch is a toss up: Hard core fans favor the higher ticket/smaller margin merch like decorations for their homes, jackets they dont mind wearing at home b/c they are hard core fans. Casual guests will buy the high margin stuff like sweatshirts with the date on them, mickey ears, etc.
• Snacks/water: casual guests dont anticipate the daily drain on them and are generally not prepared vs seasoned guests who know to ship cases of water or have it delivered to the resort.
• Ponchos: huge, high margin money maker. After a few trips you are carrying your own poncho with you.
I'm sure these may seem like small items but x that out over 30 million unsuspecting families per year and it equals a ton of revenue.
And my 50/50 numbers above are just a guess, I found this (
here) while researching
A couple of years ago I was talking to some high-level managers, specifically asking why they did not do the Haunted Mansion Holiday or Small World Holiday overlays at WDW as they do at DLR. The response was that at DLR about 70% of the Guests are repeat, while at WDW about 70% are first-time visitors and they do not want to have the down-time problem twice a year on the switchovers since for so many people it will be their only visit ever.
Time is money there. 
