For all Stillers fans excited to be facing Plummer (1 Viewer)

SSOG · Jan 16, 2006

This was posted before last weeks games on nfl.com, but I feel like now is a good time to bring it back up, since it's so relevant to this week's games. I've seen several people comment on being excited about facing Plummer... but if you're a Steelers fan, he's your worst nightmare in the playoffs.

The link.

The upshoot- Plummer was one of three playoff QBs to throw for double-digit TDs against the blitz this season (Manning and Brady). Plummer was sacked fewer times per blitz than any other postseason QB this season. Jake Plummer was the only QB in the playoffs that didn't throw a single INT against the blitz... ALL SEASON LONG.

Oh, and Pittsburgh leads the league in blitzes, calling a blitz nearly 20 times a game.

Just something to think about before declaring how excited you are to be facing Plummer. Personally, I'd be more excited about facing a running game that regularly shuts down when facing the 3-4 (well, except for Ron Dayne, that is).

Bloom · Jan 16, 2006

The statistical difference between Indy and Denver's success at stopping the blitz is insignificant. If your argument was correct, then the Steelers would not have consistently gotten to Manning today.

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Team          Blitzes called against                Sacks              Intercepted           RatioDenver                    174                        10                   0                1:17.4Indianapolis             162                        10                    1                 1:14.7

**** Lebeau's inventive blitzes toppled the #2 team, with less than one blitz against per game and one INT over the course of the season separating Plummer and Manning. Lebeau will once again come up with blitzes that the OC hasn't seen before for next week's game. If the #2 team vs. the blitz couldnt adjust protection to stop them, the #1 team is certainly at risk.

hofer · Jan 16, 2006

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The statistical difference between Indy and Denver's success at stopping the blitz is insignificant. If your argument was correct, then the Steelers would not have consistently gotten to Manning today.

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Team Blitzes called against Sacks Intercepted RatioDenver 174 10 0 1:17.4Indianapolis 162 10 1 1:14.7

**** Lebeau's inventive blitzes toppled the #2 team, with less than one blitz against per game and one INT over the course of the season separating Plummer and Manning. Lebeau will once again come up with blitzes that the OC hasn't seen before for next week's game. If the #2 team vs. the blitz couldnt adjust protection to stop them, the #1 team is certainly at risk.

well the number 3 defenders against the blitz couldn't stop Denver's blitz so what about the number 7 team (Pittsburgh). Theoretically they will do worse. That argument works both ways.

Frenchy Fuqua · Jan 16, 2006

Manning had the best passer rating vs. the blitz of any QB in the NFL, didn't matter today. Nothing against Jake Plummer but he's a better match-up for the Steelers than the past 3 QBs they have seen in the AFC Championship (Tom Brady twice & John Elway).

Bloom · Jan 16, 2006

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The statistical difference between Indy and Denver's success at stopping the blitz is insignificant. If your argument was correct, then the Steelers would not have consistently gotten to Manning today.

Code:

Team Blitzes called against Sacks Intercepted RatioDenver 174 10 0 1:17.4Indianapolis 162 10 1 1:14.7

**** Lebeau's inventive blitzes toppled the #2 team, with less than one blitz against per game and one INT over the course of the season separating Plummer and Manning. Lebeau will once again come up with blitzes that the OC hasn't seen before for next week's game. If the #2 team vs. the blitz couldnt adjust protection to stop them, the #1 team is certainly at risk.

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well the number 3 defenders against the blitz couldn't stop Denver's blitz so what about the number 7 team (Pittsburgh). Theoretically they will do worse. That argument works both ways.

I would never dispute that the Steelers could have trouble with Denver's blitzes. Dwight Freeney gave us fits today, although he's more of a classic end rusher than a blitzer, but the point is the same, pressure can disrupt our passing offense, and Denver can bring it. SSOG was trying to say Plummer was the Steelers "worst nightmare" because of his success vs. the blitz this year. Manning was just as successful and stifled by the blitz for most of the day. The Steelers got 5 sacks, today, equalling half of the total Indy gave up on the blitz all season - the same total Denver gave up.

Bloom · Jan 16, 2006

Manning had the best passer rating vs. the blitz of any QB in the NFL, didn't matter today. Nothing against Jake Plummer but he's a better match-up for the Steelers than the past 3 QBs they have seen in the AFC Championship (Tom Brady twice & John Elway).

SSOG · Jan 16, 2006

The statistical difference between Indy and Denver's success at stopping the blitz is insignificant. If your argument was correct, then the Steelers would not have consistently gotten to Manning today.

Team Blitzes called against Sacks Intercepted RatioDenver 174 10 0 1:17.4Indianapolis 162 10 1 1:14.7Dick Lebeau's inventive blitzes toppled the #2 team, with less than one blitz against per game and one INT over the course of the season separating Plummer and Manning. Lebeau will once again come up with blitzes that the OC hasn't seen before for next week's game. If the #2 team vs. the blitz couldnt adjust protection to stop them, the #1 team is certainly at risk.

No, it's true that Pittsburgh should be better than average at blitzing Plummer... I simply said that Plummer is the best suited QB in the playoffs to look the blitz in the face and pick it apart. Especially since there are stylistic difference between Manning and Plummer- Manning's line gets better protection, but Manning's unable to compensate when protection breaks down. Plummer's a lot more like Roethlisberger in that he scrambles, he avoids pressure, he buys time, and he throws very well on the run.That said, I wouldn't say that Plummer and Manning's numbers were comparable on the blitz, because you aren't accounting for the TDs. Manning threw 28 TDs this season. 13, or 46%, came against the blitz. Plummer threw 18 TDs, 11 of which (61%) came against the blitz. Plummer seems to elevate his game more against the blitz, while with Manning it's a case of constant excellence, blitz or no blitz. So blitzing Plummer might actually make Denver's offense MORE dangerous.

Anyway, like I said, the whole point of this post wasn't to say that Pittsburgh would be helpless against Plummer, I was just saying that nobody is better suited to burn up Pitt's defense than Plummer. Not saying that he WILL, only that he's uniquely suited to do so, and Steelers fans shouldn't be licking their chops to get a crack at him.

infantsam · Jan 16, 2006

The statistical difference between Indy and Denver's success at stopping the blitz is insignificant. If your argument was correct, then the Steelers would not have consistently gotten to Manning today.

Team Blitzes called against Sacks Intercepted RatioDenver 174 10 0 1:17.4Indianapolis 162 10 1 1:14.7Dick Lebeau's inventive blitzes toppled the #2 team, with less than one blitz against per game and one INT over the course of the season separating Plummer and Manning. Lebeau will once again come up with blitzes that the OC hasn't seen before for next week's game. If the #2 team vs. the blitz couldnt adjust protection to stop them, the #1 team is certainly at risk.

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No, it's true that Pittsburgh should be better than average at blitzing Plummer... I simply said that Plummer is the best suited QB in the playoffs to look the blitz in the face and pick it apart. Especially since there are stylistic difference between Manning and Plummer- Manning's line gets better protection, but Manning's unable to compensate when protection breaks down. Plummer's a lot more like Roethlisberger in that he scrambles, he avoids pressure, he buys time, and he throws very well on the run.That said, I wouldn't say that Plummer and Manning's numbers were comparable on the blitz, because you aren't accounting for the TDs. Manning threw 28 TDs this season. 13, or 46%, came against the blitz. Plummer threw 18 TDs, 11 of which (61%) came against the blitz. Plummer seems to elevate his game more against the blitz, while with Manning it's a case of constant excellence, blitz or no blitz. So blitzing Plummer might actually make Denver's offense MORE dangerous.

Anyway, like I said, the whole point of this post wasn't to say that Pittsburgh would be helpless against Plummer, I was just saying that nobody is better suited to burn up Pitt's defense than Plummer. Not saying that he WILL, only that he's uniquely suited to do so, and Steelers fans shouldn't be licking their chops to get a crack at him.

I'd say it's more about the game plan than anything.Using TP up the middle to hold the RB and allow Porter/Farrior to get straight to Manning from the outside was outstanding

Denvers WR"S arent' in the same class as Indy but Jake has shown great consistency in not screwing things up this year.

Denver will score some points - Pitts D will have a big play. Can Pitt O score?

FUBAR · Jan 16, 2006

Don't worry, the Steeler D will stop the run and Plummer won't be able to beat them.Ben will have another nice game in Denver, and we'll have two teams in the Super Bowl who won 3 road games in the playoffs.

Sheriff66 · Jan 16, 2006

Can Pitt O score?

NAH, 29 Pts. a game in the last 7 games, Steelers can't score... :no:

Me & My Uncle · Jan 16, 2006

Plummer does not equal ManningComparing the two is just wrongThis is a run-first team, unlike the ColtsRunning IS the best way to beat a blitzShutting down the run may be doable with the 3-4BUT, JAKE IS THE BEST MOBILE PASSER IN THE NFL! The reason he is good against the blitz is that he can square his hips and throw with fantastic accuracy. That Rod Smith TD looked easy, but only because Jake could not have handed the ball to him any better than that pass into tight coverage with traffic in all directions.I have much respect for Jake's game right now and winning in Mile High in this game will be SO TOUGH. That said -- GO STEELERS!!!!

infantsam · Jan 16, 2006

Can Pitt O score?

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NAH, 29 Pts. a game in the last 7 games, Steelers can't score...

its a fair questionI would assume Champ blankets Hines -

Can Randle El/Wilson/Miller have a good game - probably yes.

I think Pitt will need an early lead to win - and if they maek some of th errors they made yesterday (not many but they were costly) theey won't get lucky.

either way it should be a great game between 2 teams that earned their spot - and there are no 'mouthy annoying TO types' really so that is even cooler

go stillers!

Cookiemonster · Jan 16, 2006

So, who exactly determines which play is a blitz, and who's counting? If you go by what the announcers (dumbashes) say, nearly every Pitt play is a blitz 'cause they don't know what to call it when someone other than the front 4 (which Pitt doesn't even have most of the time) rushes the QB. Pitt blitzed more against Indy than any other team all year 'cause if you can disguise your blitz, Peyton panicks. Just 'cause a LB and a SS are rushing the QB doesn't make it a blitz if you are dropping the other 3 LBs and a DE. It's called a 'zone blitz' but generally only 4 players are coming. Sometimes 3, sometimes 5. Very rarely (other than vs. Colts) does LeBeau send 6 or more pass rushers. If its a 'man' cover scheme most people also count one more blitzer when the RB stays in to block 'cause the 'man' on the RB gets a 'hot blitz' since his 'man' is not running a route. All your stats may be true, but I was curious where the idea that Pitt blitzes more than other teams came from.

Cookiemonster · Jan 16, 2006

Oh, and Pittsburgh leads the league in blitzes, calling a blitz nearly 20 times a game.

Just wondering who was counting 'cause I'd be surprised if Pitt called 20 blitzes (5 or more pass rushers) in ANY game this season other than yesterday. I understand its an "NFL.com" site, but that doesn't mean I trust them to know what they're talking about. Hell, the guy counting could have been a backup TE on his H.S. team that has never faced a 3-4 and thinks every time a LB is coming its a blitz.

SSOG · Jan 16, 2006

So, who exactly determines which play is a blitz, and who's counting? If you go by what the announcers (dumbashes) say, nearly every Pitt play is a blitz 'cause they don't know what to call it when someone other than the front 4 (which Pitt doesn't even have most of the time) rushes the QB. Pitt blitzed more against Indy than any other team all year 'cause if you can disguise your blitz, Peyton panicks. Just 'cause a LB and a SS are rushing the QB doesn't make it a blitz if you are dropping the other 3 LBs and a DE. It's called a 'zone blitz' but generally only 4 players are coming. Sometimes 3, sometimes 5. Very rarely (other than vs. Colts) does LeBeau send 6 or more pass rushers. If its a 'man' cover scheme most people also count one more blitzer when the RB stays in to block 'cause the 'man' on the RB gets a 'hot blitz' since his 'man' is not running a route.

All your stats may be true, but I was curious where the idea that Pitt blitzes more than other teams came from.

I understand what a blitz is. I'm assuming that Stats, Inc understands what a blitz is, too, and that's where these numbers are from.From what I've seen, Pittsburgh sends 5 rushers more than any other team in the league. I'd call Denver a bigger-blitzing team, since they're more likely to send 6, 7, or even 8 guys, but Pittsburgh blitzes a ton. There's a reason why they're called "Blitzburgh", and there's a reason why their DBs had 9 sacks between them during the regular season. That's 20% of the team's total sack figure coming from the secondary. And for every sack, there are numerous other DB blitzes that don't result in a sack.

redman · Jan 16, 2006

What about the so-called "zone blitz" (which BTW Lebeau had a hand in creating)? While you can rush more than 4 with a zone blitz, I've seen defensive plays called "zone blitzes" when they rush 4 but one lineman backs off into a shallow zone and someone else takes his place rushing the QB. :popcorn:

SSOG · Jan 16, 2006

What about the so-called "zone blitz" (which BTW Lebeau had a hand in creating)? While you can rush more than 4 with a zone blitz, I've seen defensive plays called "zone blitzes" when they rush 4 but one lineman backs off into a shallow zone and someone else takes his place rushing the QB.

Again, I don't know how Stats, Inc counts blitzes, but the fact that 20% of Pittsburgh's sacks come FROM THEIR SECONDARY, I would say that it's very likely that Pittsburgh calls a lot of TRUE blitzes. Usually, a DB doesn't come in on a zone-blitz.

da5exx · Jan 16, 2006

Using TP up the middle

Cornholio says, "Are you threatening me?" Sorry guys, I couldn't resist. That is too funny. Whew, my side hurts.

Chewyguru · Jan 19, 2006

Again, I don't know how Stats, Inc counts blitzes, but the fact that 20% of Pittsburgh's sacks come FROM THEIR SECONDARY, I would say that it's very likely that Pittsburgh calls a lot of TRUE blitzes. Usually, a DB doesn't come in on a zone-blitz.

Would have been more acurate if you replaced "secondary" with safeties. The corner can blitz and the DE can cover the slant. Don't know if Pittsburgh does that though.

Seems like Denver likes to bring Lynch.

I think Denver and Pittsburgh seemed to be running very similar blitzes last week. Crowding the line with 7-8 and dropping different people back.

Cookiemonster · Jan 19, 2006

Majority of the hits I remember seeing on Manning were only 4 man rushes. They just came from different places and were unaccounted for. Just 'cause you trust someone else to count your stats, then use those stats in an argument involving other stats...I'll watch 'em play and decide for myself. Plummer HAS improved. He is now good. He is not great, or even very good. He will avoid more sacks than Manning. He will also miss picking up a few more rushers than manning. I predicted 5 sacks against Manning. I see 4 on the low side for Plummer. Steelers also had their hands on 3 picks, only holding one, getting credit for none. I see three being caught this time. What do your stats tell you will happen. Just for ***** and giggles, you post you predictions, and we'll revisit this topic after the weekend. What to you say SSOG?

SSOG · Jan 19, 2006

Oh, and Pittsburgh leads the league in blitzes, calling a blitz nearly 20 times a game.

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Just wondering who was counting 'cause I'd be surprised if Pitt called 20 blitzes (5 or more pass rushers) in ANY game this season other than yesterday. I understand its an "NFL.com" site, but that doesn't mean I trust them to know what they're talking about. Hell, the guy counting could have been a backup TE on his H.S. team that has never faced a 3-4 and thinks every time a LB is coming its a blitz.

It has been verified. The blitz numbers presented in that article are ONLY on plays when five Pittsburgh Steelers crossed the line of scrimmage. So if Pitt just rushes 1 LB, that didn't count as a blitz. If they rushed 2 LBs and dropped a DE into coverage, that also wasn't a blitz. Only if FIVE PLAYERS rushed the QB was it counted as a blitz... and Pitt still averaged about 20 a game.

Majority of the hits I remember seeing on Manning were only 4 man rushes. They just came from different places and were unaccounted for. Just 'cause you trust someone else to count your stats, then use those stats in an argument involving other stats...

I'll watch 'em play and decide for myself. Plummer HAS improved. He is now good. He is not great, or even very good. He will avoid more sacks than Manning. He will also miss picking up a few more rushers than manning. I predicted 5 sacks against Manning. I see 4 on the low side for Plummer. Steelers also had their hands on 3 picks, only holding one, getting credit for none. I see three being caught this time. What do your stats tell you will happen. Just for ***** and giggles, you post you predictions, and we'll revisit this topic after the weekend. What to you say SSOG?

Sure thing. First off, no way is 4 the "low side" for Plummer. Pitt isn't even averaging 4 sacks a game over their last 6 games, and Plummer's one of the hardest QBs in the NFL to sack this season... so why on earth would you predict them to EXCEED their six-game average?Plummer is sackable, but I'd say 2 is reasonable, 3 at the absolute most. Let's put the expected range at between 1 and 3, with my guess at 2.

Second, how on earth can you predict that Plummer will throw 3 INTs this game? He only threw 7 all season! One of those came on 4th down, too, which shouldn't even count (Miami would have gotten the ball back with better field position if the DB had just knocked the pass down than it did with the interception).

Prediction ranges- 0-2 INTs, 1-3 sacks. Color me shocked if Pitt exceeds either of those maximums... or even REACHES those maximums. I see a 2-sack, 1-int day for Plummer, to go with 250 yards passing and a 60+% completion percentage. Meanwhile, I see a pair of sacks and a pair of picks for Rooflesburger.

Just for the sake of having pointless, meaningless, super-precise predictions, I also predict that Plummer ends up with a higher passer rating, although Rooflesburger gets more yards per attempt.

Cookiemonster · Jan 21, 2006

Oh, and Pittsburgh leads the league in blitzes, calling a blitz nearly 20 times a game.

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Just wondering who was counting 'cause I'd be surprised if Pitt called 20 blitzes (5 or more pass rushers) in ANY game this season other than yesterday. I understand its an "NFL.com" site, but that doesn't mean I trust them to know what they're talking about. Hell, the guy counting could have been a backup TE on his H.S. team that has never faced a 3-4 and thinks every time a LB is coming its a blitz.

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It has been verified. The blitz numbers presented in that article are ONLY on plays when five Pittsburgh Steelers crossed the line of scrimmage. So if Pitt just rushes 1 LB, that didn't count as a blitz. If they rushed 2 LBs and dropped a DE into coverage, that also wasn't a blitz. Only if FIVE PLAYERS rushed the QB was it counted as a blitz... and Pitt still averaged about 20 a game.

Majority of the hits I remember seeing on Manning were only 4 man rushes. They just came from different places and were unaccounted for. Just 'cause you trust someone else to count your stats, then use those stats in an argument involving other stats...

I'll watch 'em play and decide for myself. Plummer HAS improved. He is now good. He is not great, or even very good. He will avoid more sacks than Manning. He will also miss picking up a few more rushers than manning. I predicted 5 sacks against Manning. I see 4 on the low side for Plummer. Steelers also had their hands on 3 picks, only holding one, getting credit for none. I see three being caught this time. What do your stats tell you will happen. Just for ***** and giggles, you post you predictions, and we'll revisit this topic after the weekend. What to you say SSOG?

Click to expand...

Sure thing. First off, no way is 4 the "low side" for Plummer. Pitt isn't even averaging 4 sacks a game over their last 6 games, and Plummer's one of the hardest QBs in the NFL to sack this season... so why on earth would you predict them to EXCEED their six-game average?Plummer is sackable, but I'd say 2 is reasonable, 3 at the absolute most. Let's put the expected range at between 1 and 3, with my guess at 2.

Second, how on earth can you predict that Plummer will throw 3 INTs this game? He only threw 7 all season! One of those came on 4th down, too, which shouldn't even count (Miami would have gotten the ball back with better field position if the DB had just knocked the pass down than it did with the interception).

Prediction ranges- 0-2 INTs, 1-3 sacks. Color me shocked if Pitt exceeds either of those maximums... or even REACHES those maximums. I see a 2-sack, 1-int day for Plummer, to go with 250 yards passing and a 60+% completion percentage. Meanwhile, I see a pair of sacks and a pair of picks for Rooflesburger.

Just for the sake of having pointless, meaningless, super-precise predictions, I also predict that Plummer ends up with a higher passer rating, although Rooflesburger gets more yards per attempt.

Sack projection: Peyton had 17 sacks in the regular season. He was sacked 5 times in the last game. That's almost 30% of the sacks he took all season. By that standard, if Pitt sacked Plummer 5 times, that would only be 23% of his season total. I don't find that unreasonable.Pick projection: Peyton threw 10 picks, Plummer threw 7. When Denver falls behind, because they can't run, Plummer will be forced to throw. Pitt had their hands on 2 sure picks and almost a 3rd. No reason they can't get their hands on 3 or 4 balls Sunday.

Since you only seem to understand arguments w/ #s, I thought I'd throw those out there to support my thoughts, though I came up w/ my predictions on my own and spoke them in my own words. Short and to the point so that the readers stay awake through the entire post.

Traders2001 · Jan 21, 2006

One thing you seem to be forgetting here is that this is playoff time so everything is different .You can see that Manning is nt the same Qb when comes the playoffs , he loses is cool and cant read blitzes . He simply chokes.Let see if Plumer will keep is cool , if so Denver wins .Plummer is the key , if he does nt pull a Manning ( choking )then the Broncos are going to the super bowl.

greenroom · Jan 21, 2006

One thing you seem to be forgetting here is that this is playoff time so everything is different .

You can see that Manning is nt the same Qb when comes the playoffs , he loses is cool and cant read blitzes . He simply chokes.

Let see if Plumer will keep is cool , if so Denver wins .

Plummer is the key , if he does nt pull a Manning ( choking )

then the Broncos are going to the super bowl.

Plummer's problem in the playoffs has been the lack of talent around him in Arizona and in Denver when they faced a better Indy Team. Denver either did nto show up or was just to far behind and everything snow balled. To me he does not choke, he tries to hard to make things happen. Which causes problems and mistakes. That said I don't think Pittsburgh is "better" than Denver. To me this is a very even game as far as on paper.

But I think the Steelers and "The Bus" run out of gas and end up losing the game by 10 or more points. I think them coming off a Win at Indy will take a lot out of them as far as emotion and energy would not suprise me to see them come out flat and then make it a game in the second half.

And as far as Denver side I really think they thought they would beat NE and are very lucky to not to have to face INDY so I think they will come out on fire to set the tone to the game.

Both teams will open up the running game by passing and it will come down to A Lelie or Randel El who has the better game of not dropping passes. ANd to me I would rather have Lelie

Mik789fl · Jan 21, 2006

One thing you seem to be forgetting here is that this is playoff time so everything is different .

You can see that Manning is nt the same Qb when comes the playoffs , he loses is cool and cant read blitzes . He simply chokes.

Let see if Plumer will keep is cool , if so Denver wins .

Plummer is the key , if he does nt pull a Manning ( choking )

then the Broncos are going to the super bowl.

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Plummer's problem in the playoffs has been the lack of talent around him in Arizona and in Denver when they faced a better Indy Team. Denver either did nto show up or was just to far behind and everything snow balled. To me he does not choke, he tries to hard to make things happen. Which causes problems and mistakes. That said I don't think Pittsburgh is "better" than Denver. To me this is a very even game as far as on paper.

But I think the Steelers and "The Bus" run out of gas and end up losing the game by 10 or more points. I think them coming off a Win at Indy will take a lot out of them as far as emotion and energy would not suprise me to see them come out flat and then make it a game in the second half.

And as far as Denver side I really think they thought they would beat NE and are very lucky to not to have to face INDY so I think they will come out on fire to set the tone to the game.

Both teams will open up the running game by passing and it will come down to A Lelie or Randel El who has the better game of not dropping passes. ANd to me I would rather have Lelie

I beg to differ that Plummer had no talent around him when he came to Denver. He had a younger Rod Smith,Clinton Portis at the top of his game and an O-line that was second to none. Plummer has not made mistakes this year because the Broncos have game planned very well not exposing Jake as the guy who has to carry the team or make the big play,similiar to what the Steelers do with Ben,run the ball well,play solid defense and use a safe passing game. If both teams keep this up Sunday the game will come down to which QB can make plays at the end of the game,it should be very interesting.

Cookiemonster · Jan 21, 2006

One thing you seem to be forgetting here is that this is playoff time so everything is different .

You can see that Manning is nt the same Qb when comes the playoffs , he loses is cool and cant read blitzes . He simply chokes.

Let see if Plumer will keep is cool , if so Denver wins .

Plummer is the key , if he does nt pull a Manning ( choking )

then the Broncos are going to the super bowl.

Click to expand...

Plummer's problem in the playoffs has been the lack of talent around him in Arizona and in Denver when they faced a better Indy Team. Denver either did nto show up or was just to far behind and everything snow balled. To me he does not choke, he tries to hard to make things happen. Which causes problems and mistakes. That said I don't think Pittsburgh is "better" than Denver. To me this is a very even game as far as on paper.

But I think the Steelers and "The Bus" run out of gas and end up losing the game by 10 or more points. I think them coming off a Win at Indy will take a lot out of them as far as emotion and energy would not suprise me to see them come out flat and then make it a game in the second half.

And as far as Denver side I really think they thought they would beat NE and are very lucky to not to have to face INDY so I think they will come out on fire to set the tone to the game.

Both teams will open up the running game by passing and it will come down to A Lelie or Randel El who has the better game of not dropping passes. ANd to me I would rather have Lelie

A) Hasn't everybody been saying that since Pitt had to win several straight just to MAKE the playoffs? Haven't seen a letdown yet. I will give you points for the altitude.B) Don't you think its possible for Denver to be the team w/ the letdown? Here, they were getting all geared up for their nemisis Colts, and then they're gone. "Whew, now it should be easy."

C) You would rather have Lelie than what? A sinus infection? Root canal?

greenroom · Jan 21, 2006

[

A) Hasn't everybody been saying that since Pitt had to win several straight just to MAKE the playoffs? Haven't seen a letdown yet. I will give you points for the altitude.

B) Don't you think its possible for Denver to be the team w/ the letdown? Here, they were getting all geared up for their nemisis Colts, and then they're gone. "Whew, now it should be easy."

C) You would rather have Lelie than what? A sinus infection? Root canal?

Cookiemonster

Good points

A. But Pittsburgh was favored in most of the games down the stretch so No I don't think that has much to do with anything. And also because they have had to win so many games down the stretch as you say that does take a toll on the body. Can they get up of course but with out any time off I think it does make it harder.

B. Yea I have concerns about the let down, but I am hoping the other way. Plus being at home I think will avoid the let down. IF it had been at Pitt then I think it would of been a bigger Issue.,

C.Well I was talking about which WR2 would you perfer and who will not drop as many balls this game Lelie or Randel El

Cookiemonster · Jan 21, 2006

C.Well I was talking about which WR2 would you perfer and who will not drop as many balls this game Lelie or Randel El

They're BOTH slot WRs, but I think El runs better routes and has much better hands. Lelie has better deep ball speed and better hops. I fully expect Baily to severly limit Wards receptions and Ward to limit Champ's run support. I expect Lelie to hit the Steelers on at least one pass play of 30+ and for El to dice up the 2nd CB (injured Williams probably) for 7/110, 1 TD.

Mik789fl · Jan 21, 2006

Just an opinion here,it seems to me that teams that have not had to win games late in the year and "rested" their stars are the ones who have struggled recently. And here's a little ditty just to add to the mix. The Pythagorean Theorem that has been in vogue recently has the Steelers/Broncos as dead even and The Seaturkey's by 3.

SSOG · Jan 21, 2006

Sack projection: Peyton had 17 sacks in the regular season. He was sacked 5 times in the last game. That's almost 30% of the sacks he took all season. By that standard, if Pitt sacked Plummer 5 times, that would only be 23% of his season total. I don't find that unreasonable.

Pick projection: Peyton threw 10 picks, Plummer threw 7. When Denver falls behind, because they can't run, Plummer will be forced to throw. Pitt had their hands on 2 sure picks and almost a 3rd. No reason they can't get their hands on 3 or 4 balls Sunday.

Since you only seem to understand arguments w/ #s, I thought I'd throw those out there to support my thoughts, though I came up w/ my predictions on my own and spoke them in my own words. Short and to the point so that the readers stay awake through the entire post.

So because Pittsburgh's defense had the best game of the entire season last week, it's reasonable to project that they'll play even BETTER this Sunday?Over their 6 game winning-streak, Pitt has averaged 3.8 sacks a game. You're now projecting that they'll OUTPERFORM their average against a QB who is one of the hardest to sack in the entire NFL? Again, yes they did it last week, but statistically, it's SERIOUSLY not likely. Especially since Plummer won't be as obliging as Manning, who steadfastly REFUSED to keep a back in to block. Denver has perhaps the best blocking RB in the entire NFL in Mike Anderson, a guy who has made a living doing nothing but blocking before, and Denver routinely utilizes more TEs and more FBs than Indy.

I beg to differ that Plummer had no talent around him when he came to Denver. He had a younger Rod Smith,Clinton Portis at the top of his game and an O-line that was second to none. Plummer has not made mistakes this year because the Broncos have game planned very well not exposing Jake as the guy who has to carry the team or make the big play,similiar to what the Steelers do with Ben,run the ball well,play solid defense and use a safe passing game. If both teams keep this up Sunday the game will come down to which QB can make plays at the end of the game,it should be very interesting.

Denver's O-Line was second to a whole lot when Plummer first game to town. Remember, Ephraim Salaam was Denver's starting LT Plummer's first season. This same Ephraim Salaam can't even crack the starting lineup in Jacksonville. Last season, both Foster and Lepsis were playing a position they'd never played before in the NFL, so Denver had a lot of questions at tackle. Denver's line has been very good, but it certainly hasn't been one of the best in the league. This year, though, it certainly has been.Also, Denver's OL is overrated at pass protection. They're undersized, which means they get pushed around a lot. They can't hold the pocket for as long as the other elite OLs (Seattle, Kansas, Indy).

And while Rod Smith was younger, so was Ashley Lelie- which isn't a point in his favor. And I could count off all the injuries in the secondary (Denver was missing 2 starting DBs both seasons), or on the DLine. But all of this is besides the point. The arguement was never that Plummer didn't have talent around him. It was that Plummer's team had less talent than the Indy teams he ran into. And I don't think many people are going to argue that point.

Borat · Jan 21, 2006

This was posted before last weeks games on nfl.com, but I feel like now is a good time to bring it back up, since it's so relevant to this week's games. I've seen several people comment on being excited about facing Plummer... but if you're a Steelers fan, he's your worst nightmare in the playoffs.

The link.

The upshoot- Plummer was one of three playoff QBs to throw for double-digit TDs against the blitz this season (Manning and Brady). Plummer was sacked fewer times per blitz than any other postseason QB this season. Jake Plummer was the only QB in the playoffs that didn't throw a single INT against the blitz... ALL SEASON LONG.

Oh, and Pittsburgh leads the league in blitzes, calling a blitz nearly 20 times a game.

Just something to think about before declaring how excited you are to be facing Plummer. Personally, I'd be more excited about facing a running game that regularly shuts down when facing the 3-4 (well, except for Ron Dayne, that is).

This is solid analysis. :thumbup:

cracKer · Jan 22, 2006

Does Joey Porter rushing unblocked from the edge count as a blitz?

TwinTurbo · Jan 22, 2006

Code:
The statistical difference between Indy and Denver's success at stopping the blitz is insignificant. If your argument was correct, then the Steelers would not have consistently gotten to Manning today.

Code:

Team Blitzes called against Sacks Intercepted RatioDenver 174 10 0 1:17.4Indianapolis 162 10 1 1:14.7

**** Lebeau's inventive blitzes toppled the #2 team, with less than one blitz against per game and one INT over the course of the season separating Plummer and Manning. Lebeau will once again come up with blitzes that the OC hasn't seen before for next week's game. If the #2 team vs. the blitz couldnt adjust protection to stop them, the #1 team is certainly at risk.

I don't think it's possible for Lebeau to come up with a blitz that's never been seen before. There is no such thing. The NFL has been around for several decades now and since there are only 11 guys on defense, I think all of the possible blitz combinations have already been tried. So unless Lebeau can figure out how to get an extra guy on the field, I'm sure the Denver OC has seen the blitz before.

SSOG · Jan 22, 2006

Does Joey Porter rushing unblocked from the edge count as a blitz?

Only if four other gentlemen rush.If five or more defenders cross the line of scrimmage, it's a blitz. If four or fewer defenders cross the line of scrimmage, it's not.

I don't think it's possible for Lebeau to come up with a blitz that's never been seen before. There is no such thing. The NFL has been around for several decades now and since there are only 11 guys on defense, I think all of the possible blitz combinations have already been tried. So unless Lebeau can figure out how to get an extra guy on the field, I'm sure the Denver OC has seen the blitz before.

Denver ran a 9-man blitz on back-to-back plays earlier this season (against the Eagles, and both plays wound up incompletions). I can honestly say that it was the first time I have EVER seen nine defenders cross the line of scrimmage. I suppose Pittsburgh could play a 10-man blitz to try to catch Denver by surprised.Also, I know that the very first play that the Washington Redskins ran in their very first scrimmage after Gibbs came back, Greg Williams called an 11-man blitz. That said, I'm pretty sure no NFL team has EVER called an 11-man blitz in an actual NFL game.

I also suppose Pittsburgh could call their defense off the field and line up their offense, and then blitz Roethlisburger. I'm pretty certain that that would be the first quarterback blitz in the history of the NFL, too.

All hyper-technicality aside, I agree with your main point. There aren't many EFFECTIVE blitzes that haven't already been run in one form or another.

Irish · Jan 22, 2006

One thing you seem to be forgetting here is that this is playoff time so everything is different .

You can see that Manning is nt the same Qb when comes the playoffs , he loses is cool and cant read blitzes . He simply chokes.

Let see if Plumer will keep is cool , if so Denver wins .

Plummer is the key , if he does nt pull a Manning ( choking )

then the Broncos are going to the super bowl.

Click to expand...

Plummer's problem in the playoffs has been the lack of talent around him in Arizona and in Denver when they faced a better Indy Team. Denver either did nto show up or was just to far behind and everything snow balled. To me he does not choke, he tries to hard to make things happen. Which causes problems and mistakes. That said I don't think Pittsburgh is "better" than Denver. To me this is a very even game as far as on paper.

But I think the Steelers and "The Bus" run out of gas and end up losing the game by 10 or more points. I think them coming off a Win at Indy will take a lot out of them as far as emotion and energy would not suprise me to see them come out flat and then make it a game in the second half.

And as far as Denver side I really think they thought they would beat NE and are very lucky to not to have to face INDY so I think they will come out on fire to set the tone to the game.

Both teams will open up the running game by passing and it will come down to A Lelie or Randel El who has the better game of not dropping passes. ANd to me I would rather have Lelie

Or do the Broncos run out of gas after their emotional win over the Superbowl champs? It goes both ways and IMO you can throw out what happened last week cause both teams will be fired up and ready to play. This game is gonna come down to turnovers and which qb can play mistake free ball. My money is on Big Ben coming thru with another big game as the Legend builds. :towelwave:

Bri · Jan 22, 2006

Personally, I'd be more excited about facing a running game that regularly shuts down when facing the 3-4 (well, except for Ron Dayne, that is).

As is usually the case in the playoffs, that'll be the key IMO. If they can shut down the running game. We don't really know if the Pats did, it didn't seem like the Broncos had to run at all against them so the low stats don't mean much of anything there. Any QB, not just Plummer, is a sitting duck without a running game.

cracKer · Jan 22, 2006

Does Joey Porter rushing unblocked from the edge count as a blitz?

Click to expand...

Only if four other gentlemen rush.If five or more defenders cross the line of scrimmage, it's a blitz. If four or fewer defenders cross the line of scrimmage, it's not.

I don't agree with this definition.

Mik789fl · Jan 22, 2006

Code:
The statistical difference between Indy and Denver's success at stopping the blitz is insignificant. If your argument was correct, then the Steelers would not have consistently gotten to Manning today.

Code:

Team Blitzes called against Sacks Intercepted RatioDenver 174 10 0 1:17.4Indianapolis 162 10 1 1:14.7

**** Lebeau's inventive blitzes toppled the #2 team, with less than one blitz against per game and one INT over the course of the season separating Plummer and Manning. Lebeau will once again come up with blitzes that the OC hasn't seen before for next week's game. If the #2 team vs. the blitz couldnt adjust protection to stop them, the #1 team is certainly at risk.

Click to expand...

I don't think it's possible for Lebeau to come up with a blitz that's never been seen before. There is no such thing. The NFL has been around for several decades now and since there are only 11 guys on defense, I think all of the possible blitz combinations have already been tried. So unless Lebeau can figure out how to get an extra guy on the field, I'm sure the Denver OC has seen the blitz before.

True,however WHEN a certain blitz is called has as much to do with confusing an offense as the TYPE of blitz it is.

jeff_eaglz · Jan 22, 2006

I'll throw my 2 cents in for sacks.I'm looking at this in a different direction. Everyone is saying that the sacks of Plummer will come due to a blitz. I think that Plummer is smart enough (now) and Shanahan has beat "don't lose the game for us" into his head enough such that Plummer may just take a sack so that he can live to fight another play. A coverage sack or two is not unreasonable, so attribute 1-2 to coverage and another 2-3 due to pressure, and I can see Pittsburgh with 3-5 sacks in this game. Food for thought.And by all means - enjoy the game. I love/hate this time of year, as around 10PM I'll begin to realize that there's just only one game left.... :( :cry:

RoarinSonoran · Jan 22, 2006

Plummer is a "former Cardinal".Several former Cardinals have gone on to Super Bowl titles.

jurb26 · Jan 22, 2006

Cookiemonster · Jan 25, 2006

Oh, and Pittsburgh leads the league in blitzes, calling a blitz nearly 20 times a game.

Click to expand...

Just wondering who was counting 'cause I'd be surprised if Pitt called 20 blitzes (5 or more pass rushers) in ANY game this season other than yesterday. I understand its an "NFL.com" site, but that doesn't mean I trust them to know what they're talking about. Hell, the guy counting could have been a backup TE on his H.S. team that has never faced a 3-4 and thinks every time a LB is coming its a blitz.

Click to expand...

It has been verified. The blitz numbers presented in that article are ONLY on plays when five Pittsburgh Steelers crossed the line of scrimmage. So if Pitt just rushes 1 LB, that didn't count as a blitz. If they rushed 2 LBs and dropped a DE into coverage, that also wasn't a blitz. Only if FIVE PLAYERS rushed the QB was it counted as a blitz... and Pitt still averaged about 20 a game.

Majority of the hits I remember seeing on Manning were only 4 man rushes. They just came from different places and were unaccounted for. Just 'cause you trust someone else to count your stats, then use those stats in an argument involving other stats...

I'll watch 'em play and decide for myself. Plummer HAS improved. He is now good. He is not great, or even very good. He will avoid more sacks than Manning. He will also miss picking up a few more rushers than manning. I predicted 5 sacks against Manning. I see 4 on the low side for Plummer. Steelers also had their hands on 3 picks, only holding one, getting credit for none. I see three being caught this time. What do your stats tell you will happen. Just for ***** and giggles, you post you predictions, and we'll revisit this topic after the weekend. What to you say SSOG?

Click to expand...

Sure thing. First off, no way is 4 the "low side" for Plummer. Pitt isn't even averaging 4 sacks a game over their last 6 games, and Plummer's one of the hardest QBs in the NFL to sack this season... so why on earth would you predict them to EXCEED their six-game average?Plummer is sackable, but I'd say 2 is reasonable, 3 at the absolute most. Let's put the expected range at between 1 and 3, with my guess at 2.

Second, how on earth can you predict that Plummer will throw 3 INTs this game? He only threw 7 all season! One of those came on 4th down, too, which shouldn't even count (Miami would have gotten the ball back with better field position if the DB had just knocked the pass down than it did with the interception).

Prediction ranges- 0-2 INTs, 1-3 sacks. Color me shocked if Pitt exceeds either of those maximums... or even REACHES those maximums. I see a 2-sack, 1-int day for Plummer, to go with 250 yards passing and a 60+% completion percentage. Meanwhile, I see a pair of sacks and a pair of picks for Rooflesburger.

Just for the sake of having pointless, meaningless, super-precise predictions, I also predict that Plummer ends up with a higher passer rating, although Rooflesburger gets more yards per attempt.

O.K., I'll come out and admit I underestimated Plummer's escapability, but not his talent as a QB. I expected 4-5 sacks and 3 picks. I'll take the 4 turnovers (2/2) as a victory, while Plummer was very 'Snake' avoiding the rush.Now, can we expect an 18 page report on all your misleadings from last week?

And having "pointless, meaningless, super-precise predictions" is for fun. How many FF sites do you check out that lists how many catches for how many yards and how many TDs for EVERY QB, RB, WR and TE in the NFL? I was throwing out my impression of how the game would go and used projections to ballpark my visions of the outcome. Just smile.

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