Andrew, how can you say the loss of those scholarships isn't devastating? USC was one of a handful of programs that had elite prospects behind elite prospects. They could whiff (margin of error) WAY more on recruiting and still be highly competitive. Now they'll not only have to fight harder for the top guys, but do so in an expanded conference AND with half as many scholarship players so that every miss is going to hurt a TON more.
If Kiffin can keep USC as a perennial BCS contender now, then I've way underestimated his coaching abilities.
I say that 10 scholarships a year (according to the National Football Post) is bad but could be worse. I read somewhere they were already under their allotted cap from what understand and have the room. It's not 30 a year - it's 10-15 PER YEAR.
From NFP -
Well, the team received a two-year bowl ban and a reduction of scholarships by 10 for the next three academic years. That’s an enormous blow. Forget about the buzz from conference expansion — this is USC receiving a penalty harsher than most people ever thought was possible.
Your other points are concerns REGARDLESS of the sanctions (assuming Texas/OK arrives). I think SC was facing a rougher road anyway once Carroll left and after the defense proved itself unable to reload smoothly last year.As for the post season ban - at most a guy recruited in 2011 misses ONE BOWL GAME before they are Bowl eligible. 2012 recruits don't even have that.
Does the ban suck? Yes. Does it hurt? Sure.
But I really don't see these sanctions as the death knell for this school.
Where the post season ban could hurt is with current players who can leave without penalty. We'll see how many flee - THAT'S what would kill the school, at least short term.
Dude, this absolutely cripples USC for the next 4-5 years.1. The 2010 team will be unaffected by sanctions. But they can't go to a bowl. The recruiting class can only have 15 people in it. The no bowls and the negative recruiting surrounding it will give them a very small class.
2. The 2011 team won't be affected by sanctions very much either. There won't be a ton of incoming freshman, but most wouldn't play anyway. But they still can't go to a bowl.
So for two seasons, the two classes that aren't affected by this will be lost because there is no chance of any type of championships. Not to mention the fact that they have a new coach.
3. The 2012 team will finally be able to play in a bowl. However, they'll have 2 classes of kids (freshmen and sophomores) who will only make up 30 scholarships max. Plus they'll have a max limit of 75, which means that the redshirt senior, senior and junior classes better be less than 45 kids total, or else the second year of recruiting could be 8-10 kids. I'm sure the coaches won't let that happen though.
4. The 2013 team will be absolutely decimated. Zero depth. Freshman, sophomore and junior classes all composed of 15 kids a piece. MAX. They better hope and pray that the senior class of that year (this year's freshman class) is unbelievable AND that out of the 45 players they get in the next 3 years, that they hit home runs with every one.
5. The 2014 will probably be the worst team of all. All the seniors are gone, and you have 3 very small classes making up your sophomores, juniors and seniors. The bright side is that there will be 25 incoming freshman. This is the CRITICAL class to get them back on track quickly. If they can hit a homerun in this class, then they can possibly contend in 2015.
6. The 2015 class will have 2 straight full 25-scholarshipped classes. They will be very young. But the positive thing is that if they hit homeruns with the 2014 and 2015 classes, they will be loaded for the future, because so many of those freshman will have to play and gain a ton of experience.
Miami and Alabama are two case studies of probation. Both teams were destroyed and both teams came back and became powerhouses. Miami came back pretty quick, aided in large part by the fact that they had one of the most unbelievable recruiting classes of all time. Alabama got hit hard and really didn't do a great job of coming out of it. Nick Saban rescued that team, but the probation put them in a tail-spin that they wouldn't have come out of if they didn't get a bigtime coach.
USC will survive. But the next 5 years will be very, very painful.