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Dion Lewis (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter ex-ghost
- Start date
Sabertooth
Footballguy
You expect Freeman to put up 2000 yards and score 20+ touchdowns this season? Give me the under.
Tau837
Footballguy
Boy, you'd really be going out on a limb there. Tell us this. Where do you expect Lewis to rank in RB total points at the end of the regular season, PPR and non-PPR? How about in ppg?
If you say top 5 PPR and top 10 non-PPR, why are you continuing to pick at other posts in this thread? If you don't say top 5/10, please explain your rationale, since surely it must amount to more than regression to the mean.
A lot of goal line love?I'll add his TD/game rate isn't exactly outlandish considering he's getting a lot of goal line love.
To maintain his .6 TD/game rate he would need to score 4.8TDs for the rest of the season.... If you really want to "bet against that" I'll be happy to give you action at even money. Just say the word
Do you know how many of his TDs have been GL TDs? ZERO.
Do you know how many GL carries/catches he has this year? ZERO.
That's a lot of goal line love.
And I never said anything about his TD/game rate, I said his TD/touch rate is high. He's on pace for 193 touches (if he plays all the rest of the games). His TD/touch rate is over 5%, that would have been the 2nd best rate among RBs last year. It's not "a lock," as you keep saying; in fact, it's much less likely to continue than it would be to drop off.
Tau837
Footballguy
Please give us your prediction for how many TDs Lewis scores the rest of the season.A lot of goal line love?I'll add his TD/game rate isn't exactly outlandish considering he's getting a lot of goal line love.
To maintain his .6 TD/game rate he would need to score 4.8TDs for the rest of the season.... If you really want to "bet against that" I'll be happy to give you action at even money. Just say the word
Do you know how many of his TDs have been GL TDs? ZERO.
Do you know how many GL carries/catches he has this year? ZERO.
That's a lot of goal line love.
And I never said anything about his TD/game rate, I said his TD/touch rate is high. He's on pace for 193 touches (if he plays all the rest of the games). His TD/touch rate is over 5%, that would have been the 2nd best rate among RBs last year. It's not "a lock," as you keep saying; in fact, it's much less likely to continue than it would be to drop off.
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Insoxicated
I love how people keep trying to shoehorn Lewis into traditional stereotypes. "He's no ADP" duh. "He's not getting goal line touches so he's not going to keep up this TD pace" 
He is getting the ball in the redzone and around the goal line... a lot. How many of his touchdowns are from the redzone? Who did NE go to last week when that Edelman TD got called back?
When they are near the end zone and trying to punch it in, Lewis is a part of that. You can hide behind semantics but you just look foolish. Knock it off.
I'm still waiting for you to "bet on the under" if keeping up his TD pace.... O/U 4.5 TDs rest of the year. I'll take over, you take under. What are the stakes? $50? $100? More?
He is getting the ball in the redzone and around the goal line... a lot. How many of his touchdowns are from the redzone? Who did NE go to last week when that Edelman TD got called back?
When they are near the end zone and trying to punch it in, Lewis is a part of that. You can hide behind semantics but you just look foolish. Knock it off.
I'm still waiting for you to "bet on the under" if keeping up his TD pace.... O/U 4.5 TDs rest of the year. I'll take over, you take under. What are the stakes? $50? $100? More?
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1-I don't need to justify what/why I post to you, just as you don't need to justify what/why you post to me.
2-When someone makes the outlandish claim that "it's a lock that Lewis is a top-5 RB" at the end of the year based on information that is misleading, or flat-out wrong, it deserves comment.
3-I'd expect (barring injury) Lewis to be a RB1 in PPR, and a RB2 in non-ppr at the end of the season. I'm expecting him to get about 75-80 receptions, maybe 100 carries, and finish with 6-8 TDs. That could sneak him into the top-5 in PPR, but it's not "a lock."
No, but I don't see Lewis continuing to put up the TDs/touch that he is either.Do you honestly thin Freeman is going to keep up his pace? I don't.Not picking nits, but saying he is a lock for top-5 is being optimistic. He would have to continue to produce a unrealistically high points/touch ration (as noted, his 1.46 average dwarfs last year's #1). If that happens, great for you, me, and anyone else who was lucky enough to draft/claim him. But to say he is a lock for top-5 is just wrong. Could he be top-5? Sure. Is it a lock? No.I didn't factor for Bell's 2 game suspension... Sorry just waking up, still in bed,and running all this on my phone.
Okay so he's dropped all the way from #2 to #3 PPG (feel free to roster Charles or foster and cross your fingers, if you wish).... I had no idea what I was thinking!! Nevermind, guy is a bum.
My rushing numbers were on the year, adjust for Blount and take 1 away. Okay.
My 7.5 passing was targets per game. If you want to go by actual touches that's fine.. His 1.4ish number looks even better then.
Bottom line, the kid is a MONSTER in PPR and, if healthy, is somewhat of a lock for top 5 RB going forward. Any detractors are simply picking nits...
You expect Lewis to maintain his TD rate and his 10+ ypr average? Give me the under.
But neither of us is going to lose, if Lewis declines (unless he falls off a cliff, which I doubt would happen), because he will still be a RB1 in PPR. If he doesn't decline, as you believe, then he's a top-5 RB. IF either one of us is right, we have a RB1 for a WW claim/late draft pick, I'd imagine.
I already did, please give us yours.Please give us your prediction for how many TDs Lewis scores the rest of the season.A lot of goal line love?I'll add his TD/game rate isn't exactly outlandish considering he's getting a lot of goal line love.
To maintain his .6 TD/game rate he would need to score 4.8TDs for the rest of the season.... If you really want to "bet against that" I'll be happy to give you action at even money. Just say the word
Do you know how many of his TDs have been GL TDs? ZERO.
Do you know how many GL carries/catches he has this year? ZERO.
That's a lot of goal line love.
And I never said anything about his TD/game rate, I said his TD/touch rate is high. He's on pace for 193 touches (if he plays all the rest of the games). His TD/touch rate is over 5%, that would have been the 2nd best rate among RBs last year. It's not "a lock," as you keep saying; in fact, it's much less likely to continue than it would be to drop off.
You like to move the goal posts a lot, huh?I love how people keep trying to shoehorn Lewis into traditional stereotypes. "He's no ADP" duh. "He's not getting goal line touches so he's not going to keep up this TD pace"
He is getting the ball in the redzone and around the goal line... a lot. How many of his touchdowns are from the redzone? Who did NE go to last week when that Edelman TD got called back?
When they are near the end zone and trying to punch it in, Lewis is a part of that. You can hide behind semantics but you just look foolish. Knock it off.
I'm still waiting for you to "bet on the under" if keeping up his TD pace.... O/U 4.5 TDs rest of the year. I'll take over, you take under. What are the stakes? $50? $100? More?
First you said he is "getting a lot of goal line love." Now, since that's totally wrong, you're shifting it to "red zone touches." Those aren't the same thing. As far as "near the end zone & Lewis is being a part of that," you're correct. He has 14 red zone opportunities, that places him 4th on the team, behind Gronk, Edelman, and Blount.
And again, I said his TD/touch rate is high, you tried to change it to TD/game rate, now you're saying his TD pace. Say what you mean, and discuss what I said, please. Don't change what you posted, and don't put words in my posts.
I don't know you, and you don't know me, & so betting money with a stranger is foolish. Lewis' current TD rate/touch is 5.2%. I'll bet that it isn't that high at the end of the season.
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You're right.
Getting back on track, what is/should be without dispute: barring injury, Lewis is a RB1 in PPR (some feel he's a top-5), and a RB2 in non-PPR.
Another salient point seems to be that he isn't returning that kind of value in trade offers/discussions (that I've seen). So, if you have him, you probably should hang on to him. If you have needs at other positions, and other RBs with more "name" value, your best bet might be to try to move one of them.
Tau837
Footballguy
OK, this is useful info.
In 6 games, Lewis has 45/220/2 rushing and 35/349/2 receiving on 45 targets. However, I know you like to discount game 1, since Blount was inactive. In the 5 games Blount was active, Lewis has 30/151/2 rushing and 28/298/2 receiving on 40 targets.
In one of my PPR leagues where I can easily sort for weeks 2 through 8, Lewis ranks #6 in ppg over that period, at 19.38 ppg. However, that ignores that he played at less than 100% in his only outlier game. Consider his scores for the season in that league: 16, 25.8, 17.7, bye, 23.3, 6.9, inj, 23.2. The 6.9 point game is an obvious outlier, and we know why. But even including that game and ignoring his week 1 game, he is #6. Two of the guys above him (Foster, Charles) are out for the season, meaning he is performing as a top 5 RB right now.
In my only non-PPR league, we count 0.5 points per first down rushing/receiving, so it will be a bit different than typical non-PPR leagues. Sorting for weeks 2 through 8, Lewis ranks #10 in ppg over that period, at 15.78 ppg. His scores for the season in that league: 14.5, 21.3, 14.2, bye, 17.8, 4.4, inj, 21.2. With Foster and Charles out for the season, he is performing as a top 8 RB right now.
OK, so how to project forward?
In his past 5 games, he is averaging 6 carries per game at 5 ypc. Is there any reason to think his average carries per game will drop? I don't think so. Is there any reason to think his 5 ypc will drop? I don't think so. His career ypc average before this season was 4.75, and that was playing for teams that did not have the kind of passing game threat that Brady, Gronk, Edelman, et al. pose. The eye test also suggests that his average has as much or more to do with his talent than scheme and supporting cast. So if he plays the remaining 9 games, it seems reasonable to project that he will get another 54/270 rushing, which would bring him to 99/490 rushing for the season.
In his past 5 games, he is averaging 5.6 receptions per game at 10.6 ypr on 8 targets per game. His catch rate of 70% seems sustainable; it is similar to or below other great pass catching RBs like Charles, Bell, Woodhead, and Sproles. Conservatively, suppose his targets drop to 7 per game. With a similar catch rate, that means 5 receptions per game. Conservatively, I could see his ypr dropping a bit to, say, 9.5 ypr. If he plays the remaining 9 games, it seems reasonable to project he will get another 45/427 receiving, which would bring him to 80/776 receiving on the season.
How about TDs? Well, he has 4 TDs in his past 5 games and 4 in his 6 total games. Even though you don't like to do it, I will include the first game with 0 TDs here, since it is the more conservative route. He has averaged 0.67 TDs per game. Projecting forward, this projects to 6 more TDs on the season, meaning he would finish with 10 total.
These projections total to 1266 YFS, 80 receptions, and 10 TDs. This all seems reasonable IMO. You seem to be aligned on catches and rushing attempts, so your only issue appears to be TDs.
As you have pointed out, Lewis has not required goal line touches to get 4 TDs in 6 games. So the fact that he doesn't get them doesn't really seem to be a problem for his TD scoring potential. This is an offense that has scored 28 TDs, and Lewis has scored 4 of them, which is 4th on the team behind Gronk, Edelman, and Blount. Is there any reason to think that will change going forward, i.e., that others on the roster will surpass Lewis as a TD threat the rest of the way? I don't think so. Is there any reason to believe the Pats offense will regress in TD scoring by a significant margin going forward? I don't see why that would happen barring injury to key players.
For you to project Lewis to score potentially as few as 2 more TDs in what you seem to agree will likely be about 100 more touches over 9 more games seems like a reach. You said 6-8 TDs here. If you instead settled on 8, that would seem conservative, but more reasonable.
So where would 1266, 80, 8 rank? In normal PPR, that would be 255 points = 17 ppg. In my PPR league mentioned above, that would have ranked as RB #8 last season, with Charles and Foster ranked higher. With 2 more TDs, it would have ranked as RB #7, with Foster ranked higher.
In standard, 1266/8 = 175 points = 11.7 ppg. Per FBG, last year that would have ranked as RB #13, with Charles and Foster ranked higher. With 2 more TDs, it would have ranked as RB #10, with Charles and Foster ranked higher, and about 1 point behind RB #9.
So it looks like projecting him as a RB1 in PPR, with a chance to sneak into the top 5 but not a lock to do so, is a very reasonable take, but it looks like projecting him as a RB2 in non-PPR is likely understating his expected performance.
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Tau837
Footballguy
And he is 4th on the team in TDs, behind the same players. So why are you so adamant that he cannot maintain that?
Adam Harstad
Moderator
I believe matching Grimes on Lewis was actually Miami's choice. Which is incredible to think about. How many running backs split out wide and find the defense assigning their top cover corner to them?
Tau837
Footballguy
This is a thread for discussion about Lewis, and that is what is happening in the thread.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
Thunderlips
Footballguy
In a .5ppr/6pt TD/1 pt per 20 yards.....he sits at 8th (71.2)
In game averages....he's 10th (adding Bell, Ivory and Gurley moving above him and Woodhead and Lamar Miller falling out)
That being said, in my league going forward......I think I'd take definitively Bell, Freeman and Gurley over him and probably Forte over him. Lewis' inability (either thru gameplanning, ability or other quality personnel in the backfield) to be a workhorse/bellcow/3 down back hurts him.
- with Charles slightly ahead of him
- 4 of the players having 7 games to his teams 6 (Freeman, Ingram, Woodhead and Lamar MIller)
- Only Forte and Doug Martin sit above him in doing it in 6 games played.
In game averages....he's 10th (adding Bell, Ivory and Gurley moving above him and Woodhead and Lamar Miller falling out)
That being said, in my league going forward......I think I'd take definitively Bell, Freeman and Gurley over him and probably Forte over him. Lewis' inability (either thru gameplanning, ability or other quality personnel in the backfield) to be a workhorse/bellcow/3 down back hurts him.
I think there is a nice combo of Jones and Freeman that both help each other. The Titans were the only team I saw play the Falcons straight up while everyone seems to overreact with 7-8 in the box or what looks like 5 on Julio. They could have run all day on the Titans and probably had 40-50 yards called back. Still that was some Lebeau magic holding them to so few points and them not being able to score alot with such success on the ground.Do you honestly thin Freeman is going to keep up his pace? I don't.Not picking nits, but saying he is a lock for top-5 is being optimistic. He would have to continue to produce a unrealistically high points/touch ration (as noted, his 1.46 average dwarfs last year's #1). If that happens, great for you, me, and anyone else who was lucky enough to draft/claim him. But to say he is a lock for top-5 is just wrong. Could he be top-5? Sure. Is it a lock? No.I didn't factor for Bell's 2 game suspension... Sorry just waking up, still in bed,and running all this on my phone.
Okay so he's dropped all the way from #2 to #3 PPG (feel free to roster Charles or foster and cross your fingers, if you wish).... I had no idea what I was thinking!! Nevermind, guy is a bum.
My rushing numbers were on the year, adjust for Blount and take 1 away. Okay.
My 7.5 passing was targets per game. If you want to go by actual touches that's fine.. His 1.4ish number looks even better then.
Bottom line, the kid is a MONSTER in PPR and, if healthy, is somewhat of a lock for top 5 RB going forward. Any detractors are simply picking nits...
It's pathetic but most teams don't have the personnel necessary and will continue to overreact. If this keeps up, yeah I do think Freeman can totally rock. A D simply can not stop him when they have 5 guys either on Jones or nearby ready to be.
Their O line is put together with last minute signings and some oft-injured guys. I don't know if they can withstand an injury and just put the next lineman up. Jones or Freeman can of course get hurt. I don't think if any of this happens that Freeman will sustain these gaudy numbers. There's some bad Ds that he can dominate regardless of Jones, I mean in general.
I don't think Hopkins gets the same respect as Jones. See Jones makes these catches that make ya think the defender "didn't have a prayer" while Hopkins makes a nice catch with a defender almost making a play. There's a dominance on individual play there that Jones totally has and Hopkins doesn't. So I didn't notice defenses throwing the kitchen sink at Hopkins. I bring this up here because I think Foster showed what I'm mentioning. Hopkins had so much more room and it just looked easier for him these past few weeks when Foster was rockin'. Without a run game, I have to re-think Hopkins and probably add garbage time stats and...it's different.
Today yeah I think Freeman can sustain this pace. An injury or two later, I reserve the right to totally change my opinion though
ETA One other thing. Freeman has the same thing CJ, Murray and other NFL leaders with gaudy stats have had- a ginormous hole to run through that brings up "my grandma could run thru that hole" phrases. Not watching you wouldn't see that in stats. Look at the highlights it's as impressive a hole as an OL can give
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This is exactly what I've been saying for a while now.
The only contention I had with the other poster was the "lock for top-5" comment.
He's not a lock for the top-5, but he could get there. I personally don't expect him to score enough TDs to get there, but I'd be very excited if he did. Just because I'd like him to get there (or because another poster would like him to get there) doesn't make it a lock.
As for the non-PPR side of things, I made it known many pages back that the league I own Lewis in is a non-PPR, but since most in this thread were discussing him from a PPR perspective, I've tended to post based on that type of scoring. In my league, Lewis is 11th thus far, at RB. Since I expect his TD rate to decline, I expect his "ranking" in non-PPR to decline as well. I think he'll be a top 15 RB in non-PPR, but not a RB1.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
When you are a threat to take it in from anywhere, they are all goal line carries.A lot of goal line love? Do you know how many of his TDs have been GL TDs? ZERO.I'll add his TD/game rate isn't exactly outlandish considering he's getting a lot of goal line love.
To maintain his .6 TD/game rate he would need to score 4.8TDs for the rest of the season.... If you really want to "bet against that" I'll be happy to give you action at even money. Just say the word
Do you know how many GL carries/catches he has this year? ZERO.
That's a lot of goal line love.
And I never said anything about his TD/game rate, I said his TD/touch rate is high. He's on pace for 193 touches (if he plays all the rest of the games). His TD/touch rate is over 5%, that would have been the 2nd best rate among RBs last year. It's not "a lock," as you keep saying; in fact, it's much less likely to continue than it would be to drop off.
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Insoxicated
Cute contrast/conflict between 1 and 2
My exact phrase was "somewhat of a lock". My words were chosen rather carefully to imply I felt it was a very high likelihood, not not quite a lock. Sorry you're having trouble picking up on that. Anyways.... It's been fun. It's funny to see you're so bent out of shape over my projections, then come back with numbers that put him within a slot or 3 of where I have him. Good times
Back on ignore... Anytime you care to back up your assertions with a wager on under 5 TD in the rest of the season, I'll be happy to take your money.
Happy Halloween
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
It appears pretty clear (at least to me) that Lewis should be in line for 5-10 carries and 5-6 receptions most games. So maybe 30-50 rushing yards and 60-80 receiving yards. Some weeks he might only get 30-40 receiving yards of the opposition can tackle him on the first try. I'd say 50-50 chance of a touchdown each week. I don't see him as a 20 touch a game guy. Probably 12-14.
You don't really seem to understand what words actually mean, then.Cute contrast/conflict between 1 and 2
Anyways.... It's been fun. It's funny to see you're so bent out of shape over my projections, then come back with numbers that put him within a slot or 3 of where I have him. Good times
Back on ignore... Anytime you care to back up your assertions with a wager on under 5 TD in the rest of the season, I'll be happy to take your money.
Happy Halloween
The word comment does not mean justification is needed.
Also, saying "somewhat of a lock" is an oxymoron. It can't be somewhat of a lock, it either IS a lock, or it ISN'T.
HTH.
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TheDirtyWord
Footballguy
Thing about Lewis is this:
Traded him a couple of weeks ago (for Edelman)...and I miss him. Not unhappy with the trade but let's just say I Tivo'ed Fantasy Live yesterday because they had the most Lewis highlights.
Traded him a couple of weeks ago (for Edelman)...and I miss him. Not unhappy with the trade but let's just say I Tivo'ed Fantasy Live yesterday because they had the most Lewis highlights.
Run It Up
Footballguy
I didn't wanna continue to drone on and on about my homerism, but really - since the beginning of the playoffs last year till now, the Pats are playing a whole different game.
The elite QB play and the mismatches are allowing for some of the silliest wrinkles I've seen, and its literally their gameplan every week. Just frustrate the other team and kill it with Brady.
Lewis adds a whole dimension to this team that I don't think any of their previous backs except for maybe Woodhead could have ever achieved.
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Insoxicated
duaneok66
Footballguy
I know, right? I mean why would I be posting on a fantasy football message board, about a late FF draft-pick/WW gem, from a team like the Patriots? When do they ever have any players relevant for fantasy football?It's the bayhawks way. Dude has most posts in pats threads than most pats fans
BTW-if I'm wrong about NE's offense, please enlighten me as to how it's drastically different than it has been in the recent past? Please provide something more substantial than "Lewis is better than Vereen, Woodhead, Faulk," etc.
Brady is still the focus, Gronk is still the #1 receiving threat, Edelman is the quick, hard to cover slot/underneath type WR, they are still utilizing a "big RB" and a "pass-catching" RB. They are throwing more this year than in the past (65% thus far, compared to in the mid to upper 50s the last few). Is that 7-8% increase in pass plays really such a significant change (assuming that doesn't come down over the rest of the season)?
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Green Bay is better than New England.
Chaka
Footballguy
I am a big proponent of pointing out the volatility of TDs and when I look at Dion's TDs they are from 6 yards, 8 yards, 10 yards and 16 yards and, frankly, that doesn't concern me so much when it comes to sustaining his TD/touch or TD/game numbers. If he was hitting them from 20, 30, 40+ yards I would be more worried but 3 of his 4 TDs have been from 10 yards or less, which means that he is getting opportunities from close to the end zone. I like that in my players. When I see guys scoring many, or most, of their TDs from 20+ yards I become concerned but when they are getting their touches from 10 yards or less I like that player even more and Lewis falls into the latter category for me. And honestly in this case it makes me a little more excited because I think he has the kind of suddenness that allows for breaking long TDs so I think it is possible (not probable but possible) that his TD rate actually increases with breaking a few long ones to go along with his opportunities inside the 10.
I'm not giving him up for Amari Cooper in my league (redraft, standard) which is an offer that has been coming to me for a couple weeks now.
I'm not giving him up for Amari Cooper in my league (redraft, standard) which is an offer that has been coming to me for a couple weeks now.
Run It Up
Footballguy
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Pick one. It's going to be an epic Super Bowl though and that's the only metric that counts. Last I checked, the Packers beat them last November. Looking forward to that 14th title.
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Jed
Footballguy
Run It Up
Footballguy
The Packers I believe are the only team with a winning record against the Pats. That being said, things change.
duaneok66
Footballguy
do we have to pollute the (overall good) thread with this (my team is better than yours) nonsense???
Please stop.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Every season. I love watching the Pats. I hate watching football like the Lions-Bears because after 20 years of watching Favre and Rodgers, most QBs suck by comparison. But I don't think anything is stopping Green Bay this season. That perfect storm of a loss to Seattle was the wake up call they needed. If Rodgers stays on the field, they are winning the Super Bowl.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
hardcoredx
Footballguy
If Lewis stays heatlhy, he is a surefire top 6 PPR RB. I will probably wager a good 3 digits on Carolina beating GB as defense and a solid running game rules the day. Denver will give NE fits too, I don't see a truly elite team out there.
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Sabertooth
Footballguy
The point for me isn't whether he finishes 4th or 7th. He's going to score points when he's out there. His floor is 10 points. He's starting for me every single week he plays. I don't play in any total points leagues so his finish is irrelevant as long as he continues with his consistently excellent play. I don't have anyone better despite owning Marshawn and Demarco Murray. He's in over those two fantasy stalwarts for sure. In another league he's in my lineup in pen. Eddie Lacy, Gio Bernard, and Lamar Miller can fight it out for the second spot.
Adam Harstad
Moderator
Dion Lewis' longest run of the season is just 13 yards, which makes his 4.9 ypc average that much more remarkable. There are 12 running backs with 30+ carries and a long gain of less than 20 yards, and Dion Lewis is one of just two of them with a ypc even over 4. (The other, oddly enough, is Bishop Sankey with 4.1 ypc.)
Just been a steady dose of 5, 6, 7 yard gains. The big one is in there, though. It's coming at some point.
mnmplayer
Footballguy
Good point. He hasn't even broken a long one yet. That will most certainly be paired with a score. We all see the potential for big runs. 1 or 2 long tds would mean he only need 2 or 3 of his normal type tds to come to get to 5 more tds. I can buy that as more than likely going to happen.
