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Bump Finley (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Sabertooth
- Start date
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Insoxicated
Please stop saying brah. It makes otherwise decent posts sound foolish.
Lott's Fingertip
Footballguy
Jeremy
Footballguy
I haven't done any statistical analysis, but just using my eyes I can see that this is not the same player that overwhelmed defenses late in 2009. He's lost something physically. People tend to focus on the drops, but I'm more concerned that he rarely get separation from defenders anymore.
I recently heard someone compare him to Kellen Winslow Jr. I think that's probably about right.
And I was doing it as a jab for his jab about people not doing homework when his "homework" wasn't actually useful for the discussion. I am no flat brimmer. My use of "brah" will always be sarcastic.
Just what we need. One more eyeball analysis. When guys stop being targeted deep or start seeing less targets suddenly the shark pool starts to see a loss in physical prowess. See Andre Johnson last year after his slow start. Shark poolers were coming out of the woodwork claiming to see that AJ had lost a step. And magically, this tapered off as he went on his way to 1000+ yards in his last 7 games...
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
My homework wasn't useful to your agenda.
Finley wasn't the primary on many of his targets.
Rodgers may threw a highly accurate ball but when he's down to his second and third options he would obviously be under more durress thus his accuracy would logically be decreased.
So the 'targets' that Finley would receive would logically be less accurate if he wasn't the primary.
Also I pointed out correctly that both ESPN and Yahoo showed different target numbers which would significantly decrease your contribution which consisted of sharing one website whose drop stat can and should be questioned because its based on the number of targets which is open to personal interpretation thus the discrepency showing three different target numbers from three different web sites.
Agenda? Are you kidding me? How dense are you? I have already told you 2-3 times that I like Finley this year. I'm not trying to downplay him. I have no agenda. I was just trying to be objective by looking at both sides. Homeboy dropped a LOT of passes the last two years. His catch rate was still high because he's got one of the most accurate QBs in the game, thus all your jibber jabber about how high his catch rate was did absolutely nothing to refute that he's dropped a lot of catchable balls the last two years - which I hypothesized was why he has not seen the targets we all expected after ending 2009 with 59 targets in 8 games and beginning 2010 with 26 targets in 4 games.
You can make excuses for Finley's drops with this silly duress hypothesis, but given that Finley's ypr dropped to 10.9 from a career 13.3 tells me he was being targeted on shorter routes so the passes should've been more accurate than previously.
But no need to dwell on the past. I think it was PFF that said he had 6 drops in the first half of the season and only 3 in the second half after he and Rodgers started spending an extra hour of practice together. To me, this is a good sign and hopefully with the departure of Jennings, Finley will see a few more targets and he'll catch them. Should he approach 100 targets and catch 70% of them, he'll be top 5 next year. Personally, I think this talk of him losing a step or whatever is total hogwash. The only thing holding him back is his concentration/dedication. If he can play up to his potential and earn Rodgers' confidence, maybe we'll see fantasy production somewhere between the last two years and the silly hype of 2010.
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
The primary receiver would logically have a higher YPC over a check-down/dump-off option. A QB's accuracy is based off a number things, protection, rythmn and timing, etc., so the primary receiver would have a better more accurate ball thrown to him over a terciary reeciever where protection would be breaking down and the timing likely would be off and/or DBs would have time to converge on the secondary receiver.
You said that is a silly excuse.
No its not, when the primary is covered and the QB is going through his progressions, accuracy won't increase it will decrease.
PFF showed Finley's drops decreased at the mid-point of last year and that matchest with his production last year.
Ttheir was a clash between Finley and Rodgers. Finley made it public that he wasn't getting the ball and Rogers brushed it off but Finley wasn't getting targeted at the mid-point of last year and it seemed Rodgers wasn't seeking him out but would grudgenly dump off to him after scanning the field. The balls he got were not as accurate as the ones thrown to the primary receivers. Logically the accuracy would not be as good when Rodgers was under duress and checking down.
After the spat went public Finley's production went up and PFF noted his drops decreased.
Something changed.
The evidence points that Finley wasn't being targeted before he went public and then suddenly got an increase in targets after that spat and his drops went down.
Did anything change other than his concentration improved? I don't buy your theory that it was concentration and you have no evidence to support that theory.
His drops went up when he wasn't being targeted as often and his drops decreased when his targets increased. The evidence is the number and my theory is the quality of the passes thrown his way.
Additionally PFF's drop stat can and should be called into question because it is calculated using targets and targets are open to personal interpretation making them questionable. Its not suprising that a subjective statistic like targets are different at the top sites who had different target numbers all which are higher than PFFs target number. A higher target number severely diminishes their drop statistic. Severely? Yeah severely since adding three disputed targets decreases that stat by nearly 30% proving PFF's drop stat isn't very stable.
Green Bay paid Finley and I'm sure they plan on using him as the primary and hopefully they'll use him more often in the redzone.
You said that is a silly excuse.
No its not, when the primary is covered and the QB is going through his progressions, accuracy won't increase it will decrease.
PFF showed Finley's drops decreased at the mid-point of last year and that matchest with his production last year.
Ttheir was a clash between Finley and Rodgers. Finley made it public that he wasn't getting the ball and Rogers brushed it off but Finley wasn't getting targeted at the mid-point of last year and it seemed Rodgers wasn't seeking him out but would grudgenly dump off to him after scanning the field. The balls he got were not as accurate as the ones thrown to the primary receivers. Logically the accuracy would not be as good when Rodgers was under duress and checking down.
After the spat went public Finley's production went up and PFF noted his drops decreased.
Something changed.
The evidence points that Finley wasn't being targeted before he went public and then suddenly got an increase in targets after that spat and his drops went down.
Did anything change other than his concentration improved? I don't buy your theory that it was concentration and you have no evidence to support that theory.
His drops went up when he wasn't being targeted as often and his drops decreased when his targets increased. The evidence is the number and my theory is the quality of the passes thrown his way.
Additionally PFF's drop stat can and should be called into question because it is calculated using targets and targets are open to personal interpretation making them questionable. Its not suprising that a subjective statistic like targets are different at the top sites who had different target numbers all which are higher than PFFs target number. A higher target number severely diminishes their drop statistic. Severely? Yeah severely since adding three disputed targets decreases that stat by nearly 30% proving PFF's drop stat isn't very stable.
Green Bay paid Finley and I'm sure they plan on using him as the primary and hopefully they'll use him more often in the redzone.
Jeremy
Footballguy
Believe what you want to believe. People who watch the Packers every week will tell you, this is not the same player. Late in 2009, he looked like the next coming of Antonia Gates. The Packers built their 2010 offensive gameplan around him before his injury. Since that time he's just your run of the mill TE.
Do you really want to keep arguing about your dumb*** theory? Just because there is a possible trend in a small sample size and you have some harebrained theory doesn't mean that your theory is right. There are so many reasons why your theory is asinine that I don't even want to go into it.
And you keep b****ing and whining about PFF's 2012 stats, but I keep telling you it's been a two year problem. Here is a non-PFF site which states he had 11 drops in 2011.
I still don't see why you keep posting all this drivel when we actually both like Finley in 2013.
Lott's Fingertip
Footballguy
Or, sometimes, you know, there is a loss in physical prowess and people notice. "Shark poolers" come out of the woodwork on many players in regard to physical decline, some correctly and some incorrectly. Citing one time that "they" may have been wrong isn't very compelling.
Eyeball analysis on internet forums is less compelling than you may think, too.
The masses are prone to hysteria. You want another example? Marshawn Lynch. He was dead to everyone. Got smoked by an undrafted free agent, right? Not so fast. I got him for a song and a dance when he was on Buffalo. Bottom line, if a guy is producing, the "sharks" can see his talent. Doesn't matter if it takes him 38 carries a game, but if he puts up 100+ yards 3 games in a row, his talent is obvious (Jerome Harrison). If his targets slip, then he's lost a step (Andre Johnson).
Let's try to minimize the armchair scouting and stick to numbers.
Lott's Fingertip
Footballguy
I don't think eyeball analysis on internet forums is compelling. However, giving opinions of the fantasy value of players based on various factors, eyeball analysis being one of many factors, is kind of the point of fantasy football message boards. One can disagree and cite their own eyeball analysis, or show videos contradicting that opinion, or cite various statistics to support one's opinion. That is what we are here for. Citing previous players is fine and dandy to show anecdotal evidence that eyeball analysis can be wrong... but can we all agree that there are going to be an awful lot of examples that "prove" both possible outcomes? Not to mention that said anecdotal evidence isn't exactly sticking to the numbers, eh?FF Ninja said:
One can certainly disagree without condescension.
Good discussion is the point of FF message boards. But one of the most worthless aspects of this board has to be the eyeball tests. If it were possible to quantify, I think player opportunity and message board eyeball tests would have an extremely high correlation. I mean, look at how the perception of Schaub has changed as Houston's offensive philosophy has shifted from pass to run thanks to the defense. Or the perception of any running back who plays on an offense that doesn't run or score much. Talent/physical ability is often mistaken for opportunity. Some people can stay objective, but they aren't the ones who post their eyeball tests the most. It's the people who see AJ and Finley not living up to expectations (regardless if it is directly related to targets) that start screaming that the sky is falling. It's just silly. Does that mean they're never right? No. If you bet on red every time, you're going to hit sometimes. Does that mean you're clairvoyant? No, just consistent. Just like the message boards. Could it be that a player is targeted less because he's not running crisp routes or not catching the ball well? No, it's always that he's lost a step, can't get separation, etc.
And sure, I could point this out w/o condescension, but people hear what they want to hear. You've got to be blunt to get the point across.
And sure, I could point this out w/o condescension, but people hear what they want to hear. You've got to be blunt to get the point across.
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
People make up their own minds.
Being condensending or blunt doesn't force people into hearing an argument. They quickly are turned off by those tactics and tune out arguments where those tactics are used.
People aren't intimidated by tactics that harm the argument of the person who uses them.
The best tactics are those where your argumentative points are likely to be well received instead of tuned out.
Lott's Fingertip
Footballguy
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
Can we please get back to Finley??
sho nuff
Footballguy
Or are Packer fans that can watch what we see on the field seeing every game and give our opinions on what is a message board full of opinions.
Jeremy
Footballguy
Statorama
gangster
Amazing story about the women in Jermichael Finley's life
Five kids he isn't paying child support for, and the woman that took to Twitter to call him out....just an awesome read.
Five kids he isn't paying child support for, and the woman that took to Twitter to call him out....just an awesome read.
greggorymac
Footballguy
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
ShadyBrady
Footballguy
Sounds like we are only hearing one side of the story. I am reserving judgement until more facts come out.
CletiusMaximus
Footballguy
Does this really qualify as an "amazing story"? I see a series of tweets from someone named "@ChelsieLovely"
I'll never defend Finley though - have never been able to tolerate the guy, but this is nothing.
CletiusMaximus
Footballguy
ok - I'm following her now:
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Why is she taking this to twitter and not to a courthouse? If she wants anything for these kids, she's going to have to hit while he's still in the NFL.
loose circuits
Footballguy
Based on talent alone this guy seems like a great buy low. Can't even sell him for a late 2014 1st round pick to TE needy teams in a league where I already own Housler, Cameron, and Marty B among other long shots.
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cstu
Footballguy
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Hopefully he's grown up a bit and left his childishness behind.
sho nuff
Footballguy
Yeah...but in the end, unless he dominates (and even then)...I don't think he has a future here.
Especially if Quarless does anything.
Jeremy
Footballguy
Faust
MVP
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
This quote is hilarious, because it kind of conveys the real truth--especially the pause. Finley has never been what people made him out to be.
cstu
Footballguy
I know "bump Finley" has become amusing phrase, but I feel like people really should be bumping him a little up their redraft rankings. Feels like he's getting overlooked in favour of some pretty speculative fliers at TE. I don't know if the light will ever switch on with him, but there's still plenty of upside here.
sho nuff
Footballguy
61 receptions last year (read somewhere it was a team record for TEs).RushHour said:
His problem is his mouth is ahead of his game...and there are a lot of mouths to feed in GB.
Seems there are chances for a guy like him with the NE TE situation muddled up and Pitta hurt...to move up some rankings.
And he should come decently cheap this year.
Shutout
Footballguy
Agree that he "bumps" due to attrition but not on opportunity and situation or increased ability.
JFS171
Footballguy
Beyond all the fitness talk and mouthing off and chemistry issues, etc…. it seems to me like the biggest issue with Finley is that Cobb is such a mismatch in the slot and so effective working the underneath part of the field. While Jermichael can stretch and exploit the seam, he's basically lost his underneath role to Cobb.
Am I missing something? Wasn't that why there was all the buzz on the guy?
Maybe you say he put it together while Cobb was on the field during the last 8 games of the season, but it certainly seems like Finley will frustrate and be inconsistent at best.
Am I missing something? Wasn't that why there was all the buzz on the guy?
Maybe you say he put it together while Cobb was on the field during the last 8 games of the season, but it certainly seems like Finley will frustrate and be inconsistent at best.
This.... ^
I was one of those "Bump Finley" guys the past 2 years.. but I really believe this is his year with Jennings gone, and the physical condition hes showed up in.
Faust
MVP
sho nuff
Footballguy
Whether its him maturing...or someone in his ear saying he needs to play for that next contract, Finley seems to have grown up enough to shut his mouth and put in some work.
With the injuries to the WRs...he is in line to have a nice start to the year and can still be had pretty cheap.
With the injuries to the WRs...he is in line to have a nice start to the year and can still be had pretty cheap.
habsfan
Footballguy
Maturity is great but shutting his mouth and being in great shape doesn't automatically translate to catching more passes or being a trusted target. Suppressing his swagger is nice, earning it would be even better...
