EBF
Footballguy
These rankings are intended for PPR leagues with standard scoring. You'll notice that the tiers get bigger as you move further down the ladder. This is only natural because there are only a handful of "can't-miss" prospects in any given draft. The rest are mediocrities with various flaws whose value will hinge more heavily on opportunity and supporting cast. Without further ado...
TIER ONE
1. RB Trent Richardson, Browns - No surprises here. Richardson has been my #1 overall from wire to wire this year. Much has been said about him already, so there's little need to rehash it. He's a complete back with an ideal frame and skill set. Some critics who favor more explosive backs might be disappointed with his lack of elite top end speed, but he's hardly slow and you don't need great wheels to be an elite pro RB (see: Foster, McCoy, Rice). This position is about power, quick feet, vision, and elusiveness. Richardson has all of those things in droves and is the safest bet of any RB I've seen come into the league in the past decade. Injuries are really the only thing that can prevent him from being a consensus top 5 dynasty RB for the next 4-5 years.
TIER TWO
2. WR Justin Blackmon, Jaguars - In many draft classes, Blackmon would be a first tier prospect and a contender for the 1.01 rookie slot. He's not the slam-dunk elite lock that Richardson is, but he's a high quality prospect with a very good chance of becoming a perennial 1000+ yard guy in the NFL. I think he is a bit underappreciated because he lacks elite combine numbers that you can point to for reassurance, but there's no doubt that Blackmon is an elite player on gameday. He has dominated his opposition for two full years despite being the focal point of opposing defenses, who have had no answer for him. It's true that he doesn't have the raw physical gifts of Andre or Calvin Johnson, but who does? Blackmon has all the ability needed to become a Dwayne Bowe/Anquan Boldin type in the NFL. He has good playing strength, adequate speed, good quickness, and is very athletic on the field.
3. RB Doug Martin, Buccaneers - Martin is not as talented as players like Blackmon, Luck, and Griffin, but he benefits from playing a prestige position where instant impact is relatively common. Martin is a complete three-down back with no real weaknesses. He has good speed, power, quickness, hands, vision, and elusiveness. He should be able to step in and produce from day one. He's not the rare talent that Trent Richardson is, but it's entirely possible that he'll outscore him in redraft leagues. There is some risk that Blount could vulture some of his carries, but I think Martin is probably talented enough to win the job outright and I expect nice returns immediately, with top 10 PPG numbers a realistic possibility. The downside is that Martin is a bit old for a rookie, is not a truly elite talent, and plays a position with a short shelf life. He should be good for the immediate future, but in the long run his FF output might be lapped by players like Luck and Blackmon who can probably stick around the league longer.
4. QB Andrew Luck, Colts - It feels silly to rank Luck this low given his status as a consensus "once-per-decade" type of prospect. There's little doubting his credentials, but I'd argue that QB remains a luxury position in most FF leagues despite last year's inflated passing stats. With most FF leagues only having 10-14 teams and 1 starting QB, it simply isn't that difficult to acquire a capable starter at the QB position. This reduces the value of Luck and Griffin. Unless they become super elite players, they probably won't score enough points to justify passing on solid starters at the more difficult positions to address. This is the primary reason why I have them so low. Still, Luck is an appealing option if you're thinking long-term. He has first round physical ability paired with rare mental talent for the position. Add a blue collar work ethic to that equation and you have a likely 10+ year starter in the NFL. I think his floor is Matt Ryan and his ceiling is something like Peyton Manning.
5. WR Michael Floyd, Cardinals - Floyd has seemingly been around forever, remaining firmly in the draft prospect spotlight throughout all four of his years at Notre Dame. He's a tall jump ball WR with good speed and just enough quickness and route running ability to get by. Floyd will never be an ankle-breaker and I have some minor concerns about his route running, but overall he stands out as a solid first round NFL talent with #1 potential. His ability to win jump balls will prove valuable at the next level, where his height and speed will make him a dangerous target downfield and in the red zone. He's not a waterbug, but I think he runs pretty well for a tall receiver. There are a lot of ways to skin a corner, and Floyd's overall package of skills will make him a difficult assignment, especially with Fitzgerald commanding most of the attention for the next few seasons. Expect Floyd to instantly improve Arizona's offense.
6. QB Robert Griffin III, Redskins - Like Luck, Griffin's FF value suffers a bit because of the position he plays. Last year Cam Newton was a late first-early second round pick in most rookie drafts despite a similar resume. Griffin is getting a lot more hype and going a lot higher, but I would have a hard time taking him earlier than this in most formats because there are so many other appealing options in this draft. Griffin is an elite athlete who put up monster passing stats during the 2011 college season. People will automatically compare him to Cam Newton, but he is significantly smaller and not as agile. I don't think Griffin will be the dynamic red zone runner that Cam is. Nevertheless, his elite mobility is definitely a plus and he seems to have enough pure passing ability to thrive even without relying on his athleticism. He's not the safe pick that Luck is, but his ceiling is just as high. I would feel good about getting him as my developmental dynasty QB in the middle of the first round.
7. WR Kendall Wright, Titans - Wright is similar to Blackmon in that he is more of a football player than a workout warrior. His combine numbers don't reflect his performance on the field, where he shows instant quickness and frightening speed to easily outmatch the corners he faced. Wright is short, but he is heavy for his height and an excellent leaper. He was a Texas state champion in triple jump and long jump. He has also played for Baylor's basketball team. Even though showed up looking doughy at the combine and was generally unimpressive in drills, there's no doubt that he's a highly talented athlete. I have some concerns about his work ethic and I wonder if the locker room in Tennessee will be a bad influence, but he's a fair gamble at this stage of the draft. He can be something like a Steve Smith or Santonio Holmes hybrid if everything clicks for him.
8. RB David Wilson, Giants - From a pure measurables standpoint, Wilson is one of the most gifted athletes in the draft. His workout numbers reflect a rare level of explosiveness. Far from being a mere workout specimen, Wilson is a productive player who ranked among the nation's leaders in rushing yards last year. His combination of productivity, measurables, opportunity, and pedigree makes him a very promising option for FF purposes. He's one of those guys who could become a real dynamo if everything clicks. On the other hand, he's a bit undersized for a long term NFL featured back and I have some concerns about his vision. A lot of his runs came on sweeps or in other situations where he could just use his raw speed to blaze by everyone. He was less consistent through the middle and didn't always show good anticipation and elusiveness. Pair that with his somewhat diminutive frame and you could be looking at durability issues. Still, the dynamic talent and large upside keeps him firmly in this tier.
TIER THREE
9. WR Rueben Randle, Giants - Randle is a sneaky-good player whose lack of outstanding measurables likely hurt his draft stock. He doesn't have overwhelming strength or speed. In shorts and a t-shirt, he's just a normal guy by NFL standards, but when game time comes around he's a highly instinctive player who shows a diverse array of WR skills. Randle was voted a first team All-SEC selection last season after posting good receiving stats in a conservative offense with poor quarterbacks. He's tall, fluid, and quick with good hands. He's very, very smooth for a tall receiver. His speed is not elite, but he has shown the ability to beat corners downfield on many occasions. Overall, he's another player like Blackmon or Wright whose game is more than the sum of its parts. Randle actually compares pretty well with new teammate Hakeem Nicks. He's a low-risk player who looks destined for a long career in the NFL. The main risk is that his lack of elite traits relegates him to a complementary role. I'll take that chance at this stage of the draft, with all of the locks already off the board. He's only 20 years old, so he has a lot of time to mature physically and eventually stake his FF claim.
10. RB Lamar Miller, Dolphins - I had previously ranked Miller as the third best back in the draft, but he wouldn't have fallen all the way to the 4th round if NFL evaluators really felt that he was a borderline elite prospect. I have downgraded Miller, but I remain intrigued by his long-term upside. He's a productive back with decent size, good speed, and good quickness. People will question the short-term opportunity in Miami. However, Reggie Bush is starting to get old and Daniel Thomas was underwhelming as a rookie. Miller has a chance here. On the downside, he is a touch lighter than ideal and will probably never be a great power runner. I still like the risk/reward equation at this point of the rookie draft.
11. TE Coby Fleener, Colts - Fleener is a tall TE with very good vertical speed, range, and hands. He poses matchup problems due to his rare height/speed combination. Like the old cliche goes, he is too fast for most linebackers and too big for most defensive backs. I saw a lot of his games over the past few years and am reasonably high on his ability. However, I feel he has been slightly overrated due to the runaway success of TEs in the NFL last year. Fleener lacks the strength of guys like Gronkowski and Graham, and has only average agility for the position. Furthermore, he is light for his height and has struggled with numerous minor injuries. On talent alone, I think he compares pretty favorably to Todd Heap in his prime. However, expect Fleener to be somewhat inconsistent and to struggle with injuries. His main value is in leagues that give bonuses for TE receptions, and for teams who desperately need TE help. If I was already set at the position I might gamble on someone else here because TEs are not usually elite assets in FF and I don't think Fleener has the special something to reach the Gonzo-Graham range. I think he's more of a solid top 6-12 guy than a future superstar.
12. RB Bernard Pierce, Ravens - Pierce is a meat-and-potatoes runner who is unlikely to appeal to owners who are more impressed by flashy big play artists. His speed does not jump off the screen and most of his game highlights are comparatively unimpressive. He does not physically resemble Shonn Greene, but he reminds me of him in the sense that his best qualities are subtle. The more I watch him, the more I like his NFL potential. He was a massively productive college player who gradually added weight to his frame over the course of his amateur career. He's gotten all the way up to 220 pounds, with much of that weight concentrated in his lower body. Pierce is a smooth runner with a strong base and good vision and footwork. Not many 220 pound backs can make cuts like this. I think he represents an excellent value in rookie drafts because his landing spot has scared people away. If you have the patience and the roster room to take a gamble on him, I'd give it a shot in this range. Pierce is a bit one-dimensional (he's not a great receiver) and he'll probably never become a superstar, but he's a solid player with starter ability. Getting that in the 20-30 range of a rookie draft (where he has often been falling) is great value.
13. WR Brian Quick, Rams - I am not as high on Quick as some people are, but I think he has an edge over some of the alternatives in this range. He's not the workout warrior that Stephen Hill, but he's smoother and more agile on the football field. He moves better than Alshon Jeffery and is a lot bigger with a higher ceiling than Ryan Broyles. His workout numbers are pretty underwhelming and he doesn't really wow me in his highlights, but this approximately the point in the draft when the "probablies" become "maybes." Maybe Quick can become the true #1 WR Sam Bradford needs.
14. WR AJ Jenkins, 49ers - Jenkins has been on my radar for a while, but I was really surprised when San Francisco took him with the 30th pick in the draft. He always seemed like more of a 2nd-3rd round prospect. Now I've had to go back and reconsider his merits. There are definitely some intriguing qualities. Jenkins is very quick and fast. He is a smooth runner who had some monster games in college. He shows some potential as a deep threat and is also quick/fast/smooth enough to separate on shorter routes. On the other hand, he looks rail thin despite his listed weight of 190 and could struggle in today's physical NFL. He profiles as more of a #2 WR who was drafted to fill an NFL need, and not necessarily because he has first round talent in a vacuum. Still, I have a lot of respect for SF's front office. They deserve some benefit of the doubt, which is why I rank Jenkins slightly higher than I normally would.
15. RB Robert Turbin, Seahawks - Turbin reminds me a bit of Marion Barber. He was selected in the same round, and has a similar build, playing style, and (for a while) haircut. Turbin is a power runner with serviceable quickness and speed. When I watch his highlights, he physically resembles an NFL back in terms of build and playing style. However, he is more top-heavy than the usual RB and especially lacks thickness in his calves and ankles (reminds me of Beanie Wells in this regard). I suspect that his durability problems might be related to this, as it's tough for a RB to endure under the heavy workload unless he's built like a rock. Turbin has only average quickness and is a bit stiff when it comes to making difficult cuts. Despite the flaws that I've discussed, I still think Turbin can be relevant in FF. He will probably not be a long-term solution for Seattle or for your FF team, but he has enough ability to thrive as a plug-and-play option for a few years before his body breaks down and his skills erode.
16. RB LaMichael James, 49ers - James is a well-known player whose strengths and weaknesses should be familiar to any casual college football fan. He's extremely explosive and fast, but lacks bulk and was the product of a friendly offensive system that highlighted his strengths and glossed over his weaknesses. I think he is probably too small to ever be anything beyond a change of pace back. The same is true for the likes of Hillman and Pead, who were drafted in roughly the same range. I prefer James because he's more explosive and dynamic. He will get a chance to deliver big plays for SF. The risk is pretty simple: he might be too small to ever be anything more than a 100-150 carry per season guy.
17. RB Ronnie Hillman, Broncos - Hillman is a productive player who has drawn comparisons to names like Marshall Faulk and LeSean McCoy for various reasons. I see some resemblance between Hillman and McCoy. Both are waterbug scatback types who lack conventional weight. However, McCoy is built stronger than Hillman and is generally more impressive. Hillman strikes me as a poor man's McCoy. He's elusive, but not really in a "wow" sort of way. I like the opportunity for him in Denver because there is no clear young starter on the roster, but I am pretty lukewarm on his skill set. He's definitely one of the guys on this list who could obliterate my ranking and make me look silly, but I'm not personally that impressed with what he offers and I'm inclined to let other people roll the dice on this player.
18. QB Ryan Tannehill, Dolphins - I don't spend a lot of time watching QBs and I don't think you can glean much from highlights, so I'd be lying if I said I have a great read on Tannehill. However, the tea leaves aren't encouraging. He strikes me as the typical "looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane" type of QB prospect who is overrated because he resembles a franchise QB in shorts and a t-shirt. Tannehill's stats were not putrid in college (he's not Charlie Whitehurst), but they sure weren't great either. It's always a concern for me when a player who is touted as a top 10 NFL draft pick fails to distinguish himself against college competition. Tannehill was a mediocre performer and especially struggled against quality opposition, generally failing to deliver against good teams. I've read a lot about his "upside" and his "potential," but I'm not going to be the guy who takes a chance on him unless he falls to this range of my drafts. The one major plus apart from his draft position and physical skill set is the fact that Miami spent a high pick on him. After investing this heavily, they will undoubtedly give him a chance to succeed, but isn't that what people said about Blaine Gabbert and Kyle Boller?
19. WR Stephen Hill, Jets - This rating might be a bit harsh. Hill is intriguing, but I think he has been overrated in FF circles on the basis of his workout numbers. If sheer height and explosiveness were sufficient for NFL stardom then Jerome Simpson would be in the Pro Bowl every year, but there's a lot more to football than running in a straight line and jumping. Hill profiles as a potentially elite deep threat due to his rare combination of height, range, and straight line speed. On the other hand, he looks stiff and awkward when it comes to lateral movement. People compare him to the other Georgia Tech receivers of recent years, but Calvin was in another class and Demaryius Thomas is far more agile and fluid. Hill reminds me more of Roy Williams, another tall receiver whose on-paper measurables only occasionally translated to effective football. For that matter, Williams was more polished, well-rounded, and impressive entering the league, even if that seems hard to believe now. I acknowledge that Hill's raw gifts are compelling, but I don't have as much faith in his football talent as others do and will not be getting him in any of my drafts because he's always gone 5-10 picks before where I'd take him. Nevermind the fact that New York is an organization on the decline who reeks of desperation. Sanchez has not improved, Tebow is a joke, and their offense is conservative anyway. I'm not one to draft based on situation, but it's another negative against Hill for me.
20. WR Alshon Jeffery, Bears - The common thread among the WRs in this tier is that with most of them, there is at least one glaring flaw that you can point to with concern. Jeffery is no different. His production was excellent, especially during the 2010 season. He was an impact player and logged some big performances against talented cornerbacks. Jeffery is a big target with good playing strength who shows a lot of natural WR talent in terms of body control and hands. However, there is no getting around the fact that he is sub-par in terms of mobility. He had a good pro day workout, but on game day he looks a bit sluggish and plodding. I think he will have a lot of trouble separating from NFL corners. There are also some issues with his maturity, work ethic, and weight. He allegedly played at 230 pounds last season and may struggle to control his weight at the next level. Overall, I really like a lot of what he does on the football field, but I think there are some real questions about how it will translate to a higher level of competition.
21. RB Isaiah Pead, Rams - A lot of teams spent high picks on small backs this year. Like Hillman and James, Pead lacks the bulk of a conventional featured back. He has good quickness and has been a productive player for Cincinnati, but it's hard to imagine him as a full-time starter in the NFL and I don't think he can match the explosiveness of a comparable back like Reggie Bush or Darren Sproles. I think Pead will be a third-down specialist and change-of-pace back whose lack of elite ability in any given category will prevent him achieving significant NFL success. I think he was a reach by 2-3 rounds and I won't be taking him at his ADP in rookie drafts. Having said all that, the opportunity in St. Louis is compelling and he may have some value solely because of that.
TIER FOUR
22. QB Brandon Weeden, Browns - I think QB is the most important position in the NFL by a wide margin, but Cleveland's pick of Weeden at 22 overall reeks of desperation. Colt McCoy is not the answer, so the Browns will take a shot on the 28 year old former baseball player. Some onlookers have argued that Weeden is the best pure pocket passer in the draft when given adequate time. That might be the case, but he was literally a man amongst boys as a fully-developed 27-28 year old competing against kids. Oklahoma State's explosive offense and the presence of Justin Blackmon also probably played a role in inflated Weeden's apparent value. I have some reservations about this player and am not very excited about his FF prospects, but if an NFL team liked him enough to spend a first round pick on him then I have to consider the possibility that he can be successful. Weeden will almost certainly be handed the reins to this offense next season. I don't expect him to be very effective given the complete and utter lack of receiving talent on the roster, but he could have immediate value as a backup and he's still young enough to contribute for several years in the unlikely event that he ends up becoming a great pro.
23. WR Mohamed Sanu, Bengals - It might be a bit unfair to slot Sanu in a separate tier from players like Jeffery and Randle, but there does seem to be a bit of a gap. Sanu is slower than Jeffery, but probably the better and more mobile overall athlete. He was an impact player for Rutgers. He has good size, toughness, hands, and somewhat decent YAC skills. However, he has no downfield ability whatsoever and is merely a short-mid range possession WR who will help take pressure off AJ Green and the more dynamic components of Cincy's attack. In an absolute best case scenario, he could become the TJ Houshmandzadeh to Green's Ochocinco, but a more likely scenario is a low ceiling of 50 catches/800 yards that prevents Sanu from becoming a relevant FF contributor in most leagues. Still, I like what he did in college and I think he has clear starter potential. I would feel good about taking a cheap gamble on him here.
24. WR Chris Givens, Rams - It's not uncommon to see a team spend two early picks on receivers only to watch the second of the two become the better pro. We've seen that in recent years with Bryant Johnson/Anquan Boldin, Brian Robiskie/Mohamed Massaquoi, Juaquin Iglesias/Johnny Knox, and Arrelious Benn/Mike Williams. Brian Quick/Chris Givens isn't quite one of those situations, but it does have a bit of that feel to it. Whereas Quick is a big target whose height and range dictated his draft position, Givens is a smaller player with better speed and quickness. This late in the draft, I am just looking for someone with the upside to develop into something more than a backup. While Givens is undersized with questionable hands and toughness, he has the athletic ability of a starting NFL WR and goes to a team with an acute need for playmakers.
TIER ONE
1. RB Trent Richardson, Browns - No surprises here. Richardson has been my #1 overall from wire to wire this year. Much has been said about him already, so there's little need to rehash it. He's a complete back with an ideal frame and skill set. Some critics who favor more explosive backs might be disappointed with his lack of elite top end speed, but he's hardly slow and you don't need great wheels to be an elite pro RB (see: Foster, McCoy, Rice). This position is about power, quick feet, vision, and elusiveness. Richardson has all of those things in droves and is the safest bet of any RB I've seen come into the league in the past decade. Injuries are really the only thing that can prevent him from being a consensus top 5 dynasty RB for the next 4-5 years.
TIER TWO
2. WR Justin Blackmon, Jaguars - In many draft classes, Blackmon would be a first tier prospect and a contender for the 1.01 rookie slot. He's not the slam-dunk elite lock that Richardson is, but he's a high quality prospect with a very good chance of becoming a perennial 1000+ yard guy in the NFL. I think he is a bit underappreciated because he lacks elite combine numbers that you can point to for reassurance, but there's no doubt that Blackmon is an elite player on gameday. He has dominated his opposition for two full years despite being the focal point of opposing defenses, who have had no answer for him. It's true that he doesn't have the raw physical gifts of Andre or Calvin Johnson, but who does? Blackmon has all the ability needed to become a Dwayne Bowe/Anquan Boldin type in the NFL. He has good playing strength, adequate speed, good quickness, and is very athletic on the field.
3. RB Doug Martin, Buccaneers - Martin is not as talented as players like Blackmon, Luck, and Griffin, but he benefits from playing a prestige position where instant impact is relatively common. Martin is a complete three-down back with no real weaknesses. He has good speed, power, quickness, hands, vision, and elusiveness. He should be able to step in and produce from day one. He's not the rare talent that Trent Richardson is, but it's entirely possible that he'll outscore him in redraft leagues. There is some risk that Blount could vulture some of his carries, but I think Martin is probably talented enough to win the job outright and I expect nice returns immediately, with top 10 PPG numbers a realistic possibility. The downside is that Martin is a bit old for a rookie, is not a truly elite talent, and plays a position with a short shelf life. He should be good for the immediate future, but in the long run his FF output might be lapped by players like Luck and Blackmon who can probably stick around the league longer.
4. QB Andrew Luck, Colts - It feels silly to rank Luck this low given his status as a consensus "once-per-decade" type of prospect. There's little doubting his credentials, but I'd argue that QB remains a luxury position in most FF leagues despite last year's inflated passing stats. With most FF leagues only having 10-14 teams and 1 starting QB, it simply isn't that difficult to acquire a capable starter at the QB position. This reduces the value of Luck and Griffin. Unless they become super elite players, they probably won't score enough points to justify passing on solid starters at the more difficult positions to address. This is the primary reason why I have them so low. Still, Luck is an appealing option if you're thinking long-term. He has first round physical ability paired with rare mental talent for the position. Add a blue collar work ethic to that equation and you have a likely 10+ year starter in the NFL. I think his floor is Matt Ryan and his ceiling is something like Peyton Manning.
5. WR Michael Floyd, Cardinals - Floyd has seemingly been around forever, remaining firmly in the draft prospect spotlight throughout all four of his years at Notre Dame. He's a tall jump ball WR with good speed and just enough quickness and route running ability to get by. Floyd will never be an ankle-breaker and I have some minor concerns about his route running, but overall he stands out as a solid first round NFL talent with #1 potential. His ability to win jump balls will prove valuable at the next level, where his height and speed will make him a dangerous target downfield and in the red zone. He's not a waterbug, but I think he runs pretty well for a tall receiver. There are a lot of ways to skin a corner, and Floyd's overall package of skills will make him a difficult assignment, especially with Fitzgerald commanding most of the attention for the next few seasons. Expect Floyd to instantly improve Arizona's offense.
6. QB Robert Griffin III, Redskins - Like Luck, Griffin's FF value suffers a bit because of the position he plays. Last year Cam Newton was a late first-early second round pick in most rookie drafts despite a similar resume. Griffin is getting a lot more hype and going a lot higher, but I would have a hard time taking him earlier than this in most formats because there are so many other appealing options in this draft. Griffin is an elite athlete who put up monster passing stats during the 2011 college season. People will automatically compare him to Cam Newton, but he is significantly smaller and not as agile. I don't think Griffin will be the dynamic red zone runner that Cam is. Nevertheless, his elite mobility is definitely a plus and he seems to have enough pure passing ability to thrive even without relying on his athleticism. He's not the safe pick that Luck is, but his ceiling is just as high. I would feel good about getting him as my developmental dynasty QB in the middle of the first round.
7. WR Kendall Wright, Titans - Wright is similar to Blackmon in that he is more of a football player than a workout warrior. His combine numbers don't reflect his performance on the field, where he shows instant quickness and frightening speed to easily outmatch the corners he faced. Wright is short, but he is heavy for his height and an excellent leaper. He was a Texas state champion in triple jump and long jump. He has also played for Baylor's basketball team. Even though showed up looking doughy at the combine and was generally unimpressive in drills, there's no doubt that he's a highly talented athlete. I have some concerns about his work ethic and I wonder if the locker room in Tennessee will be a bad influence, but he's a fair gamble at this stage of the draft. He can be something like a Steve Smith or Santonio Holmes hybrid if everything clicks for him.
8. RB David Wilson, Giants - From a pure measurables standpoint, Wilson is one of the most gifted athletes in the draft. His workout numbers reflect a rare level of explosiveness. Far from being a mere workout specimen, Wilson is a productive player who ranked among the nation's leaders in rushing yards last year. His combination of productivity, measurables, opportunity, and pedigree makes him a very promising option for FF purposes. He's one of those guys who could become a real dynamo if everything clicks. On the other hand, he's a bit undersized for a long term NFL featured back and I have some concerns about his vision. A lot of his runs came on sweeps or in other situations where he could just use his raw speed to blaze by everyone. He was less consistent through the middle and didn't always show good anticipation and elusiveness. Pair that with his somewhat diminutive frame and you could be looking at durability issues. Still, the dynamic talent and large upside keeps him firmly in this tier.
TIER THREE
9. WR Rueben Randle, Giants - Randle is a sneaky-good player whose lack of outstanding measurables likely hurt his draft stock. He doesn't have overwhelming strength or speed. In shorts and a t-shirt, he's just a normal guy by NFL standards, but when game time comes around he's a highly instinctive player who shows a diverse array of WR skills. Randle was voted a first team All-SEC selection last season after posting good receiving stats in a conservative offense with poor quarterbacks. He's tall, fluid, and quick with good hands. He's very, very smooth for a tall receiver. His speed is not elite, but he has shown the ability to beat corners downfield on many occasions. Overall, he's another player like Blackmon or Wright whose game is more than the sum of its parts. Randle actually compares pretty well with new teammate Hakeem Nicks. He's a low-risk player who looks destined for a long career in the NFL. The main risk is that his lack of elite traits relegates him to a complementary role. I'll take that chance at this stage of the draft, with all of the locks already off the board. He's only 20 years old, so he has a lot of time to mature physically and eventually stake his FF claim.
10. RB Lamar Miller, Dolphins - I had previously ranked Miller as the third best back in the draft, but he wouldn't have fallen all the way to the 4th round if NFL evaluators really felt that he was a borderline elite prospect. I have downgraded Miller, but I remain intrigued by his long-term upside. He's a productive back with decent size, good speed, and good quickness. People will question the short-term opportunity in Miami. However, Reggie Bush is starting to get old and Daniel Thomas was underwhelming as a rookie. Miller has a chance here. On the downside, he is a touch lighter than ideal and will probably never be a great power runner. I still like the risk/reward equation at this point of the rookie draft.
11. TE Coby Fleener, Colts - Fleener is a tall TE with very good vertical speed, range, and hands. He poses matchup problems due to his rare height/speed combination. Like the old cliche goes, he is too fast for most linebackers and too big for most defensive backs. I saw a lot of his games over the past few years and am reasonably high on his ability. However, I feel he has been slightly overrated due to the runaway success of TEs in the NFL last year. Fleener lacks the strength of guys like Gronkowski and Graham, and has only average agility for the position. Furthermore, he is light for his height and has struggled with numerous minor injuries. On talent alone, I think he compares pretty favorably to Todd Heap in his prime. However, expect Fleener to be somewhat inconsistent and to struggle with injuries. His main value is in leagues that give bonuses for TE receptions, and for teams who desperately need TE help. If I was already set at the position I might gamble on someone else here because TEs are not usually elite assets in FF and I don't think Fleener has the special something to reach the Gonzo-Graham range. I think he's more of a solid top 6-12 guy than a future superstar.
12. RB Bernard Pierce, Ravens - Pierce is a meat-and-potatoes runner who is unlikely to appeal to owners who are more impressed by flashy big play artists. His speed does not jump off the screen and most of his game highlights are comparatively unimpressive. He does not physically resemble Shonn Greene, but he reminds me of him in the sense that his best qualities are subtle. The more I watch him, the more I like his NFL potential. He was a massively productive college player who gradually added weight to his frame over the course of his amateur career. He's gotten all the way up to 220 pounds, with much of that weight concentrated in his lower body. Pierce is a smooth runner with a strong base and good vision and footwork. Not many 220 pound backs can make cuts like this. I think he represents an excellent value in rookie drafts because his landing spot has scared people away. If you have the patience and the roster room to take a gamble on him, I'd give it a shot in this range. Pierce is a bit one-dimensional (he's not a great receiver) and he'll probably never become a superstar, but he's a solid player with starter ability. Getting that in the 20-30 range of a rookie draft (where he has often been falling) is great value.
13. WR Brian Quick, Rams - I am not as high on Quick as some people are, but I think he has an edge over some of the alternatives in this range. He's not the workout warrior that Stephen Hill, but he's smoother and more agile on the football field. He moves better than Alshon Jeffery and is a lot bigger with a higher ceiling than Ryan Broyles. His workout numbers are pretty underwhelming and he doesn't really wow me in his highlights, but this approximately the point in the draft when the "probablies" become "maybes." Maybe Quick can become the true #1 WR Sam Bradford needs.
14. WR AJ Jenkins, 49ers - Jenkins has been on my radar for a while, but I was really surprised when San Francisco took him with the 30th pick in the draft. He always seemed like more of a 2nd-3rd round prospect. Now I've had to go back and reconsider his merits. There are definitely some intriguing qualities. Jenkins is very quick and fast. He is a smooth runner who had some monster games in college. He shows some potential as a deep threat and is also quick/fast/smooth enough to separate on shorter routes. On the other hand, he looks rail thin despite his listed weight of 190 and could struggle in today's physical NFL. He profiles as more of a #2 WR who was drafted to fill an NFL need, and not necessarily because he has first round talent in a vacuum. Still, I have a lot of respect for SF's front office. They deserve some benefit of the doubt, which is why I rank Jenkins slightly higher than I normally would.
15. RB Robert Turbin, Seahawks - Turbin reminds me a bit of Marion Barber. He was selected in the same round, and has a similar build, playing style, and (for a while) haircut. Turbin is a power runner with serviceable quickness and speed. When I watch his highlights, he physically resembles an NFL back in terms of build and playing style. However, he is more top-heavy than the usual RB and especially lacks thickness in his calves and ankles (reminds me of Beanie Wells in this regard). I suspect that his durability problems might be related to this, as it's tough for a RB to endure under the heavy workload unless he's built like a rock. Turbin has only average quickness and is a bit stiff when it comes to making difficult cuts. Despite the flaws that I've discussed, I still think Turbin can be relevant in FF. He will probably not be a long-term solution for Seattle or for your FF team, but he has enough ability to thrive as a plug-and-play option for a few years before his body breaks down and his skills erode.
16. RB LaMichael James, 49ers - James is a well-known player whose strengths and weaknesses should be familiar to any casual college football fan. He's extremely explosive and fast, but lacks bulk and was the product of a friendly offensive system that highlighted his strengths and glossed over his weaknesses. I think he is probably too small to ever be anything beyond a change of pace back. The same is true for the likes of Hillman and Pead, who were drafted in roughly the same range. I prefer James because he's more explosive and dynamic. He will get a chance to deliver big plays for SF. The risk is pretty simple: he might be too small to ever be anything more than a 100-150 carry per season guy.
17. RB Ronnie Hillman, Broncos - Hillman is a productive player who has drawn comparisons to names like Marshall Faulk and LeSean McCoy for various reasons. I see some resemblance between Hillman and McCoy. Both are waterbug scatback types who lack conventional weight. However, McCoy is built stronger than Hillman and is generally more impressive. Hillman strikes me as a poor man's McCoy. He's elusive, but not really in a "wow" sort of way. I like the opportunity for him in Denver because there is no clear young starter on the roster, but I am pretty lukewarm on his skill set. He's definitely one of the guys on this list who could obliterate my ranking and make me look silly, but I'm not personally that impressed with what he offers and I'm inclined to let other people roll the dice on this player.
18. QB Ryan Tannehill, Dolphins - I don't spend a lot of time watching QBs and I don't think you can glean much from highlights, so I'd be lying if I said I have a great read on Tannehill. However, the tea leaves aren't encouraging. He strikes me as the typical "looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane" type of QB prospect who is overrated because he resembles a franchise QB in shorts and a t-shirt. Tannehill's stats were not putrid in college (he's not Charlie Whitehurst), but they sure weren't great either. It's always a concern for me when a player who is touted as a top 10 NFL draft pick fails to distinguish himself against college competition. Tannehill was a mediocre performer and especially struggled against quality opposition, generally failing to deliver against good teams. I've read a lot about his "upside" and his "potential," but I'm not going to be the guy who takes a chance on him unless he falls to this range of my drafts. The one major plus apart from his draft position and physical skill set is the fact that Miami spent a high pick on him. After investing this heavily, they will undoubtedly give him a chance to succeed, but isn't that what people said about Blaine Gabbert and Kyle Boller?
19. WR Stephen Hill, Jets - This rating might be a bit harsh. Hill is intriguing, but I think he has been overrated in FF circles on the basis of his workout numbers. If sheer height and explosiveness were sufficient for NFL stardom then Jerome Simpson would be in the Pro Bowl every year, but there's a lot more to football than running in a straight line and jumping. Hill profiles as a potentially elite deep threat due to his rare combination of height, range, and straight line speed. On the other hand, he looks stiff and awkward when it comes to lateral movement. People compare him to the other Georgia Tech receivers of recent years, but Calvin was in another class and Demaryius Thomas is far more agile and fluid. Hill reminds me more of Roy Williams, another tall receiver whose on-paper measurables only occasionally translated to effective football. For that matter, Williams was more polished, well-rounded, and impressive entering the league, even if that seems hard to believe now. I acknowledge that Hill's raw gifts are compelling, but I don't have as much faith in his football talent as others do and will not be getting him in any of my drafts because he's always gone 5-10 picks before where I'd take him. Nevermind the fact that New York is an organization on the decline who reeks of desperation. Sanchez has not improved, Tebow is a joke, and their offense is conservative anyway. I'm not one to draft based on situation, but it's another negative against Hill for me.
20. WR Alshon Jeffery, Bears - The common thread among the WRs in this tier is that with most of them, there is at least one glaring flaw that you can point to with concern. Jeffery is no different. His production was excellent, especially during the 2010 season. He was an impact player and logged some big performances against talented cornerbacks. Jeffery is a big target with good playing strength who shows a lot of natural WR talent in terms of body control and hands. However, there is no getting around the fact that he is sub-par in terms of mobility. He had a good pro day workout, but on game day he looks a bit sluggish and plodding. I think he will have a lot of trouble separating from NFL corners. There are also some issues with his maturity, work ethic, and weight. He allegedly played at 230 pounds last season and may struggle to control his weight at the next level. Overall, I really like a lot of what he does on the football field, but I think there are some real questions about how it will translate to a higher level of competition.
21. RB Isaiah Pead, Rams - A lot of teams spent high picks on small backs this year. Like Hillman and James, Pead lacks the bulk of a conventional featured back. He has good quickness and has been a productive player for Cincinnati, but it's hard to imagine him as a full-time starter in the NFL and I don't think he can match the explosiveness of a comparable back like Reggie Bush or Darren Sproles. I think Pead will be a third-down specialist and change-of-pace back whose lack of elite ability in any given category will prevent him achieving significant NFL success. I think he was a reach by 2-3 rounds and I won't be taking him at his ADP in rookie drafts. Having said all that, the opportunity in St. Louis is compelling and he may have some value solely because of that.
TIER FOUR
22. QB Brandon Weeden, Browns - I think QB is the most important position in the NFL by a wide margin, but Cleveland's pick of Weeden at 22 overall reeks of desperation. Colt McCoy is not the answer, so the Browns will take a shot on the 28 year old former baseball player. Some onlookers have argued that Weeden is the best pure pocket passer in the draft when given adequate time. That might be the case, but he was literally a man amongst boys as a fully-developed 27-28 year old competing against kids. Oklahoma State's explosive offense and the presence of Justin Blackmon also probably played a role in inflated Weeden's apparent value. I have some reservations about this player and am not very excited about his FF prospects, but if an NFL team liked him enough to spend a first round pick on him then I have to consider the possibility that he can be successful. Weeden will almost certainly be handed the reins to this offense next season. I don't expect him to be very effective given the complete and utter lack of receiving talent on the roster, but he could have immediate value as a backup and he's still young enough to contribute for several years in the unlikely event that he ends up becoming a great pro.
23. WR Mohamed Sanu, Bengals - It might be a bit unfair to slot Sanu in a separate tier from players like Jeffery and Randle, but there does seem to be a bit of a gap. Sanu is slower than Jeffery, but probably the better and more mobile overall athlete. He was an impact player for Rutgers. He has good size, toughness, hands, and somewhat decent YAC skills. However, he has no downfield ability whatsoever and is merely a short-mid range possession WR who will help take pressure off AJ Green and the more dynamic components of Cincy's attack. In an absolute best case scenario, he could become the TJ Houshmandzadeh to Green's Ochocinco, but a more likely scenario is a low ceiling of 50 catches/800 yards that prevents Sanu from becoming a relevant FF contributor in most leagues. Still, I like what he did in college and I think he has clear starter potential. I would feel good about taking a cheap gamble on him here.
24. WR Chris Givens, Rams - It's not uncommon to see a team spend two early picks on receivers only to watch the second of the two become the better pro. We've seen that in recent years with Bryant Johnson/Anquan Boldin, Brian Robiskie/Mohamed Massaquoi, Juaquin Iglesias/Johnny Knox, and Arrelious Benn/Mike Williams. Brian Quick/Chris Givens isn't quite one of those situations, but it does have a bit of that feel to it. Whereas Quick is a big target whose height and range dictated his draft position, Givens is a smaller player with better speed and quickness. This late in the draft, I am just looking for someone with the upside to develop into something more than a backup. While Givens is undersized with questionable hands and toughness, he has the athletic ability of a starting NFL WR and goes to a team with an acute need for playmakers.