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[DYNASTY] 2012 Top 24 Rookies


EBF

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These rankings are intended for PPR leagues with standard scoring. You'll notice that the tiers get bigger as you move further down the ladder. This is only natural because there are only a handful of "can't-miss" prospects in any given draft. The rest are mediocrities with various flaws whose value will hinge more heavily on opportunity and supporting cast. Without further ado...

TIER ONE

1. RB Trent Richardson, Browns - No surprises here. Richardson has been my #1 overall from wire to wire this year. Much has been said about him already, so there's little need to rehash it. He's a complete back with an ideal frame and skill set. Some critics who favor more explosive backs might be disappointed with his lack of elite top end speed, but he's hardly slow and you don't need great wheels to be an elite pro RB (see: Foster, McCoy, Rice). This position is about power, quick feet, vision, and elusiveness. Richardson has all of those things in droves and is the safest bet of any RB I've seen come into the league in the past decade. Injuries are really the only thing that can prevent him from being a consensus top 5 dynasty RB for the next 4-5 years.

TIER TWO

2. WR Justin Blackmon, Jaguars - In many draft classes, Blackmon would be a first tier prospect and a contender for the 1.01 rookie slot. He's not the slam-dunk elite lock that Richardson is, but he's a high quality prospect with a very good chance of becoming a perennial 1000+ yard guy in the NFL. I think he is a bit underappreciated because he lacks elite combine numbers that you can point to for reassurance, but there's no doubt that Blackmon is an elite player on gameday. He has dominated his opposition for two full years despite being the focal point of opposing defenses, who have had no answer for him. It's true that he doesn't have the raw physical gifts of Andre or Calvin Johnson, but who does? Blackmon has all the ability needed to become a Dwayne Bowe/Anquan Boldin type in the NFL. He has good playing strength, adequate speed, good quickness, and is very athletic on the field.

3. RB Doug Martin, Buccaneers - Martin is not as talented as players like Blackmon, Luck, and Griffin, but he benefits from playing a prestige position where instant impact is relatively common. Martin is a complete three-down back with no real weaknesses. He has good speed, power, quickness, hands, vision, and elusiveness. He should be able to step in and produce from day one. He's not the rare talent that Trent Richardson is, but it's entirely possible that he'll outscore him in redraft leagues. There is some risk that Blount could vulture some of his carries, but I think Martin is probably talented enough to win the job outright and I expect nice returns immediately, with top 10 PPG numbers a realistic possibility. The downside is that Martin is a bit old for a rookie, is not a truly elite talent, and plays a position with a short shelf life. He should be good for the immediate future, but in the long run his FF output might be lapped by players like Luck and Blackmon who can probably stick around the league longer.

4. QB Andrew Luck, Colts - It feels silly to rank Luck this low given his status as a consensus "once-per-decade" type of prospect. There's little doubting his credentials, but I'd argue that QB remains a luxury position in most FF leagues despite last year's inflated passing stats. With most FF leagues only having 10-14 teams and 1 starting QB, it simply isn't that difficult to acquire a capable starter at the QB position. This reduces the value of Luck and Griffin. Unless they become super elite players, they probably won't score enough points to justify passing on solid starters at the more difficult positions to address. This is the primary reason why I have them so low. Still, Luck is an appealing option if you're thinking long-term. He has first round physical ability paired with rare mental talent for the position. Add a blue collar work ethic to that equation and you have a likely 10+ year starter in the NFL. I think his floor is Matt Ryan and his ceiling is something like Peyton Manning.

5. WR Michael Floyd, Cardinals - Floyd has seemingly been around forever, remaining firmly in the draft prospect spotlight throughout all four of his years at Notre Dame. He's a tall jump ball WR with good speed and just enough quickness and route running ability to get by. Floyd will never be an ankle-breaker and I have some minor concerns about his route running, but overall he stands out as a solid first round NFL talent with #1 potential. His ability to win jump balls will prove valuable at the next level, where his height and speed will make him a dangerous target downfield and in the red zone. He's not a waterbug, but I think he runs pretty well for a tall receiver. There are a lot of ways to skin a corner, and Floyd's overall package of skills will make him a difficult assignment, especially with Fitzgerald commanding most of the attention for the next few seasons. Expect Floyd to instantly improve Arizona's offense.

6. QB Robert Griffin III, Redskins - Like Luck, Griffin's FF value suffers a bit because of the position he plays. Last year Cam Newton was a late first-early second round pick in most rookie drafts despite a similar resume. Griffin is getting a lot more hype and going a lot higher, but I would have a hard time taking him earlier than this in most formats because there are so many other appealing options in this draft. Griffin is an elite athlete who put up monster passing stats during the 2011 college season. People will automatically compare him to Cam Newton, but he is significantly smaller and not as agile. I don't think Griffin will be the dynamic red zone runner that Cam is. Nevertheless, his elite mobility is definitely a plus and he seems to have enough pure passing ability to thrive even without relying on his athleticism. He's not the safe pick that Luck is, but his ceiling is just as high. I would feel good about getting him as my developmental dynasty QB in the middle of the first round.

7. WR Kendall Wright, Titans - Wright is similar to Blackmon in that he is more of a football player than a workout warrior. His combine numbers don't reflect his performance on the field, where he shows instant quickness and frightening speed to easily outmatch the corners he faced. Wright is short, but he is heavy for his height and an excellent leaper. He was a Texas state champion in triple jump and long jump. He has also played for Baylor's basketball team. Even though showed up looking doughy at the combine and was generally unimpressive in drills, there's no doubt that he's a highly talented athlete. I have some concerns about his work ethic and I wonder if the locker room in Tennessee will be a bad influence, but he's a fair gamble at this stage of the draft. He can be something like a Steve Smith or Santonio Holmes hybrid if everything clicks for him.

8. RB David Wilson, Giants - From a pure measurables standpoint, Wilson is one of the most gifted athletes in the draft. His workout numbers reflect a rare level of explosiveness. Far from being a mere workout specimen, Wilson is a productive player who ranked among the nation's leaders in rushing yards last year. His combination of productivity, measurables, opportunity, and pedigree makes him a very promising option for FF purposes. He's one of those guys who could become a real dynamo if everything clicks. On the other hand, he's a bit undersized for a long term NFL featured back and I have some concerns about his vision. A lot of his runs came on sweeps or in other situations where he could just use his raw speed to blaze by everyone. He was less consistent through the middle and didn't always show good anticipation and elusiveness. Pair that with his somewhat diminutive frame and you could be looking at durability issues. Still, the dynamic talent and large upside keeps him firmly in this tier.

TIER THREE

9. WR Rueben Randle, Giants - Randle is a sneaky-good player whose lack of outstanding measurables likely hurt his draft stock. He doesn't have overwhelming strength or speed. In shorts and a t-shirt, he's just a normal guy by NFL standards, but when game time comes around he's a highly instinctive player who shows a diverse array of WR skills. Randle was voted a first team All-SEC selection last season after posting good receiving stats in a conservative offense with poor quarterbacks. He's tall, fluid, and quick with good hands. He's very, very smooth for a tall receiver. His speed is not elite, but he has shown the ability to beat corners downfield on many occasions. Overall, he's another player like Blackmon or Wright whose game is more than the sum of its parts. Randle actually compares pretty well with new teammate Hakeem Nicks. He's a low-risk player who looks destined for a long career in the NFL. The main risk is that his lack of elite traits relegates him to a complementary role. I'll take that chance at this stage of the draft, with all of the locks already off the board. He's only 20 years old, so he has a lot of time to mature physically and eventually stake his FF claim.

10. RB Lamar Miller, Dolphins - I had previously ranked Miller as the third best back in the draft, but he wouldn't have fallen all the way to the 4th round if NFL evaluators really felt that he was a borderline elite prospect. I have downgraded Miller, but I remain intrigued by his long-term upside. He's a productive back with decent size, good speed, and good quickness. People will question the short-term opportunity in Miami. However, Reggie Bush is starting to get old and Daniel Thomas was underwhelming as a rookie. Miller has a chance here. On the downside, he is a touch lighter than ideal and will probably never be a great power runner. I still like the risk/reward equation at this point of the rookie draft.

11. TE Coby Fleener, Colts - Fleener is a tall TE with very good vertical speed, range, and hands. He poses matchup problems due to his rare height/speed combination. Like the old cliche goes, he is too fast for most linebackers and too big for most defensive backs. I saw a lot of his games over the past few years and am reasonably high on his ability. However, I feel he has been slightly overrated due to the runaway success of TEs in the NFL last year. Fleener lacks the strength of guys like Gronkowski and Graham, and has only average agility for the position. Furthermore, he is light for his height and has struggled with numerous minor injuries. On talent alone, I think he compares pretty favorably to Todd Heap in his prime. However, expect Fleener to be somewhat inconsistent and to struggle with injuries. His main value is in leagues that give bonuses for TE receptions, and for teams who desperately need TE help. If I was already set at the position I might gamble on someone else here because TEs are not usually elite assets in FF and I don't think Fleener has the special something to reach the Gonzo-Graham range. I think he's more of a solid top 6-12 guy than a future superstar.

12. RB Bernard Pierce, Ravens - Pierce is a meat-and-potatoes runner who is unlikely to appeal to owners who are more impressed by flashy big play artists. His speed does not jump off the screen and most of his game highlights are comparatively unimpressive. He does not physically resemble Shonn Greene, but he reminds me of him in the sense that his best qualities are subtle. The more I watch him, the more I like his NFL potential. He was a massively productive college player who gradually added weight to his frame over the course of his amateur career. He's gotten all the way up to 220 pounds, with much of that weight concentrated in his lower body. Pierce is a smooth runner with a strong base and good vision and footwork. Not many 220 pound backs can make cuts like this. I think he represents an excellent value in rookie drafts because his landing spot has scared people away. If you have the patience and the roster room to take a gamble on him, I'd give it a shot in this range. Pierce is a bit one-dimensional (he's not a great receiver) and he'll probably never become a superstar, but he's a solid player with starter ability. Getting that in the 20-30 range of a rookie draft (where he has often been falling) is great value.

13. WR Brian Quick, Rams - I am not as high on Quick as some people are, but I think he has an edge over some of the alternatives in this range. He's not the workout warrior that Stephen Hill, but he's smoother and more agile on the football field. He moves better than Alshon Jeffery and is a lot bigger with a higher ceiling than Ryan Broyles. His workout numbers are pretty underwhelming and he doesn't really wow me in his highlights, but this approximately the point in the draft when the "probablies" become "maybes." Maybe Quick can become the true #1 WR Sam Bradford needs.

14. WR AJ Jenkins, 49ers - Jenkins has been on my radar for a while, but I was really surprised when San Francisco took him with the 30th pick in the draft. He always seemed like more of a 2nd-3rd round prospect. Now I've had to go back and reconsider his merits. There are definitely some intriguing qualities. Jenkins is very quick and fast. He is a smooth runner who had some monster games in college. He shows some potential as a deep threat and is also quick/fast/smooth enough to separate on shorter routes. On the other hand, he looks rail thin despite his listed weight of 190 and could struggle in today's physical NFL. He profiles as more of a #2 WR who was drafted to fill an NFL need, and not necessarily because he has first round talent in a vacuum. Still, I have a lot of respect for SF's front office. They deserve some benefit of the doubt, which is why I rank Jenkins slightly higher than I normally would.

15. RB Robert Turbin, Seahawks - Turbin reminds me a bit of Marion Barber. He was selected in the same round, and has a similar build, playing style, and (for a while) haircut. Turbin is a power runner with serviceable quickness and speed. When I watch his highlights, he physically resembles an NFL back in terms of build and playing style. However, he is more top-heavy than the usual RB and especially lacks thickness in his calves and ankles (reminds me of Beanie Wells in this regard). I suspect that his durability problems might be related to this, as it's tough for a RB to endure under the heavy workload unless he's built like a rock. Turbin has only average quickness and is a bit stiff when it comes to making difficult cuts. Despite the flaws that I've discussed, I still think Turbin can be relevant in FF. He will probably not be a long-term solution for Seattle or for your FF team, but he has enough ability to thrive as a plug-and-play option for a few years before his body breaks down and his skills erode.

16. RB LaMichael James, 49ers - James is a well-known player whose strengths and weaknesses should be familiar to any casual college football fan. He's extremely explosive and fast, but lacks bulk and was the product of a friendly offensive system that highlighted his strengths and glossed over his weaknesses. I think he is probably too small to ever be anything beyond a change of pace back. The same is true for the likes of Hillman and Pead, who were drafted in roughly the same range. I prefer James because he's more explosive and dynamic. He will get a chance to deliver big plays for SF. The risk is pretty simple: he might be too small to ever be anything more than a 100-150 carry per season guy.

17. RB Ronnie Hillman, Broncos - Hillman is a productive player who has drawn comparisons to names like Marshall Faulk and LeSean McCoy for various reasons. I see some resemblance between Hillman and McCoy. Both are waterbug scatback types who lack conventional weight. However, McCoy is built stronger than Hillman and is generally more impressive. Hillman strikes me as a poor man's McCoy. He's elusive, but not really in a "wow" sort of way. I like the opportunity for him in Denver because there is no clear young starter on the roster, but I am pretty lukewarm on his skill set. He's definitely one of the guys on this list who could obliterate my ranking and make me look silly, but I'm not personally that impressed with what he offers and I'm inclined to let other people roll the dice on this player.

18. QB Ryan Tannehill, Dolphins - I don't spend a lot of time watching QBs and I don't think you can glean much from highlights, so I'd be lying if I said I have a great read on Tannehill. However, the tea leaves aren't encouraging. He strikes me as the typical "looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane" type of QB prospect who is overrated because he resembles a franchise QB in shorts and a t-shirt. Tannehill's stats were not putrid in college (he's not Charlie Whitehurst), but they sure weren't great either. It's always a concern for me when a player who is touted as a top 10 NFL draft pick fails to distinguish himself against college competition. Tannehill was a mediocre performer and especially struggled against quality opposition, generally failing to deliver against good teams. I've read a lot about his "upside" and his "potential," but I'm not going to be the guy who takes a chance on him unless he falls to this range of my drafts. The one major plus apart from his draft position and physical skill set is the fact that Miami spent a high pick on him. After investing this heavily, they will undoubtedly give him a chance to succeed, but isn't that what people said about Blaine Gabbert and Kyle Boller?

19. WR Stephen Hill, Jets - This rating might be a bit harsh. Hill is intriguing, but I think he has been overrated in FF circles on the basis of his workout numbers. If sheer height and explosiveness were sufficient for NFL stardom then Jerome Simpson would be in the Pro Bowl every year, but there's a lot more to football than running in a straight line and jumping. Hill profiles as a potentially elite deep threat due to his rare combination of height, range, and straight line speed. On the other hand, he looks stiff and awkward when it comes to lateral movement. People compare him to the other Georgia Tech receivers of recent years, but Calvin was in another class and Demaryius Thomas is far more agile and fluid. Hill reminds me more of Roy Williams, another tall receiver whose on-paper measurables only occasionally translated to effective football. For that matter, Williams was more polished, well-rounded, and impressive entering the league, even if that seems hard to believe now. I acknowledge that Hill's raw gifts are compelling, but I don't have as much faith in his football talent as others do and will not be getting him in any of my drafts because he's always gone 5-10 picks before where I'd take him. Nevermind the fact that New York is an organization on the decline who reeks of desperation. Sanchez has not improved, Tebow is a joke, and their offense is conservative anyway. I'm not one to draft based on situation, but it's another negative against Hill for me.

20. WR Alshon Jeffery, Bears - The common thread among the WRs in this tier is that with most of them, there is at least one glaring flaw that you can point to with concern. Jeffery is no different. His production was excellent, especially during the 2010 season. He was an impact player and logged some big performances against talented cornerbacks. Jeffery is a big target with good playing strength who shows a lot of natural WR talent in terms of body control and hands. However, there is no getting around the fact that he is sub-par in terms of mobility. He had a good pro day workout, but on game day he looks a bit sluggish and plodding. I think he will have a lot of trouble separating from NFL corners. There are also some issues with his maturity, work ethic, and weight. He allegedly played at 230 pounds last season and may struggle to control his weight at the next level. Overall, I really like a lot of what he does on the football field, but I think there are some real questions about how it will translate to a higher level of competition.

21. RB Isaiah Pead, Rams - A lot of teams spent high picks on small backs this year. Like Hillman and James, Pead lacks the bulk of a conventional featured back. He has good quickness and has been a productive player for Cincinnati, but it's hard to imagine him as a full-time starter in the NFL and I don't think he can match the explosiveness of a comparable back like Reggie Bush or Darren Sproles. I think Pead will be a third-down specialist and change-of-pace back whose lack of elite ability in any given category will prevent him achieving significant NFL success. I think he was a reach by 2-3 rounds and I won't be taking him at his ADP in rookie drafts. Having said all that, the opportunity in St. Louis is compelling and he may have some value solely because of that.

TIER FOUR

22. QB Brandon Weeden, Browns - I think QB is the most important position in the NFL by a wide margin, but Cleveland's pick of Weeden at 22 overall reeks of desperation. Colt McCoy is not the answer, so the Browns will take a shot on the 28 year old former baseball player. Some onlookers have argued that Weeden is the best pure pocket passer in the draft when given adequate time. That might be the case, but he was literally a man amongst boys as a fully-developed 27-28 year old competing against kids. Oklahoma State's explosive offense and the presence of Justin Blackmon also probably played a role in inflated Weeden's apparent value. I have some reservations about this player and am not very excited about his FF prospects, but if an NFL team liked him enough to spend a first round pick on him then I have to consider the possibility that he can be successful. Weeden will almost certainly be handed the reins to this offense next season. I don't expect him to be very effective given the complete and utter lack of receiving talent on the roster, but he could have immediate value as a backup and he's still young enough to contribute for several years in the unlikely event that he ends up becoming a great pro.

23. WR Mohamed Sanu, Bengals - It might be a bit unfair to slot Sanu in a separate tier from players like Jeffery and Randle, but there does seem to be a bit of a gap. Sanu is slower than Jeffery, but probably the better and more mobile overall athlete. He was an impact player for Rutgers. He has good size, toughness, hands, and somewhat decent YAC skills. However, he has no downfield ability whatsoever and is merely a short-mid range possession WR who will help take pressure off AJ Green and the more dynamic components of Cincy's attack. In an absolute best case scenario, he could become the TJ Houshmandzadeh to Green's Ochocinco, but a more likely scenario is a low ceiling of 50 catches/800 yards that prevents Sanu from becoming a relevant FF contributor in most leagues. Still, I like what he did in college and I think he has clear starter potential. I would feel good about taking a cheap gamble on him here.

24. WR Chris Givens, Rams - It's not uncommon to see a team spend two early picks on receivers only to watch the second of the two become the better pro. We've seen that in recent years with Bryant Johnson/Anquan Boldin, Brian Robiskie/Mohamed Massaquoi, Juaquin Iglesias/Johnny Knox, and Arrelious Benn/Mike Williams. Brian Quick/Chris Givens isn't quite one of those situations, but it does have a bit of that feel to it. Whereas Quick is a big target whose height and range dictated his draft position, Givens is a smaller player with better speed and quickness. This late in the draft, I am just looking for someone with the upside to develop into something more than a backup. While Givens is undersized with questionable hands and toughness, he has the athletic ability of a starting NFL WR and goes to a team with an acute need for playmakers.

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:blackdot:EBF, thanks for doing this every year. Your threads are among the highlights of the Shark Pool offseason. :thumbup:

Thanks. It is fun and it helps me sort through my own drafts.
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Stephen Hill and Alshon Jeffery are about 9 spots too low in your rankings. I feel like you have them too low to make some type of point.Robert Turbin and Bernard Pierce won't have a chance to crack a FF lineup unless Ray Rice/Lynch get injured. Both Hill and Jeffery will be starting day 1.

Instant impact is generally less important to me than long term value in a dynasty league. I don't care if these players will be starting right away. I would rather wait two or three years for a good player than draft a bad one who's going to play immediately. I'm not saying Hill and Jeffery can't be successful, but I rank Pierce above those WRs because I like him more as a player. FWIW, Hill will be the second or third option in a run-first offense with Mark Sanchez at the helm and Jeffery will (at best) be the #2 option in Chicago. In neither case do I expect instant stardom. Things move quickly in the NFL. There are lots of players drafted into bad situations who eventually make an impact. Ray Rice. Deuce McAllister. Larry Johnson. Michael Turner. Aaron Rodgers. Not to say Pierce or Turbin will ever be on that level, but you have to keep an open mind with respect to situation. It is not set in stone. I think a worst case scenario with a guy like Pierce or Turbin is that they'll give you some Toby Gerhart/Ben Tate games where they play and score well because the starter is out. That does have value in FF, even if it's unstable and hard to predict.
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Stephen Hill and Alshon Jeffery are about 9 spots too low in your rankings. I feel like you have them too low to make some type of point.

Robert Turbin and Bernard Pierce won't have a chance to crack a FF lineup unless Ray Rice/Lynch get injured. Both Hill and Jeffery will be starting day 1.

Instant impact is generally less important to me than long term value in a dynasty league. I don't care if these players will be starting right away. I would rather wait two or three years for a good player than draft a bad one who's going to play immediately.

I'm not saying Hill and Jeffery can't be successful, but I rank Pierce above those WRs because I like him more as a player. FWIW, Hill will be the second or third option in a run-first offense with Mark Sanchez at the helm and Jeffery will (at best) be the #2 option in Chicago. In neither case do I expect instant stardom.

Things move quickly in the NFL. There are lots of players drafted into bad situations who eventually make an impact. Ray Rice. Deuce McAllister. Larry Johnson. Michael Turner. Aaron Rodgers. Not to say Pierce or Turbin will ever be on that level, but you have to keep an open mind with respect to situation. It is not set in stone.

I think a worst case scenario with a guy like Pierce or Turbin is that they'll give you some Toby Gerhart/Ben Tate games where they play and score well because the starter is out. That does have value in FF, even if it's unstable and hard to predict.

I agree with some of the things you said.

Ray Rice=2nd round

Duece McAllister=1st

LJ=1st

Turner=4th

Rodgers=1st

Bernard Pierce=3rd

Robert Turbin=4th

The only player that matches that profile is Michael Turner, who is one of the better late round RBs in recent memory(Arian Foster as well).

You don't care about situation because it's dynasty, valid point. However the RB position is a more NOW position than the others due to a short shelf life.

-Bernard Pierce will be 22 when the season starts and is sitting behind one of the best RBs in the NFL in Ray Rice who's only 25 years old. Rice catches many passes out of the backfield as well, so I find it difficult to find when Pierce will see the field for the next 3+ years. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if Bobby Rainey outplays Pierce for the backup job in Baltimore(Matt Waldman is high on Rainey as well)

-Robert Turbin is already 22 and is sitting behind a 26 year old Marshawn Lynch who is rejuvenated in Seattle and was rewarded with a contract extension. Turbin also has to wait for years behind Lynch. Turbin doesn't offer anything Lynch can't do and they have a better pass catching RB in Leon Washington on the roster.

vs

Stephen Hill granted i'm not high on him. However, i'm not going to ignore his athletic ability and his opportunity from the start from day 1. Yes, Mark Sanchez is a below average starting QB. However, he threw for almost 3500 yards and 26 TDs last year. NYJ don't have a #1 WR and those stats have to go somewhere...Hill could very quickly carve out a nice FF career instead of waiting for 3 years to maybe get a chance. Santonio Holmes is in the dog house and might not be with the team for much longer. Presenting Hill will not only the opportunity for more targets but to be that #1 guy.

Alshon Jeffery will start opposite Brandon Marshall. That means he will have single coverage most of the time in Chicago and matched up vs #2 CB's. How will they matchup with a 6'3 WR with good body control and great hands? Detroit's top 2 CBs Alphonso Smith 5'9 190 and Chris Houston 5'11 178 can be in his hip pocket all they want. Big WRs box out and use their size to their advantage. Attitude problems, only things i've heard is frustration this past year in South Carolina(QB issues/double teamed). His size at 230, I see that point(although Brandon Marshall is 6'4 230) he did slim down to 216 at his pro day. Think he's not motivated? He was the first rookie to sign his NFL contract. Meaning he won't miss any time. Can Cutler deliver stats to two WRs? The last time he had good WR's in 2008-Marshall 104/1265, Royal 91/980, Stockley 49/526. I can see that being Marshall/Jeffery/Bennett.

My last concern is with Kendall Wright

" 7. WR Kendall Wright, Titans - Wright is similar to Blackmon in that he is more of a football player than a workout warrior. His combine numbers don't reflect his performance on the field, where he shows instant quickness and frightening speed to easily outmatch the corners he faced. Wright is short, but he is heavy for his height and an excellent leaper. He was a Texas state champion in triple jump and long jump. He has also played for Baylor's basketball team. Even though showed up looking doughy at the combine and was generally unimpressive in drills, there's no doubt that he's a highly talented athlete. I have some concerns about his work ethic and I wonder if the locker room in Tennessee will be a bad influence, but he's a fair gamble at this stage of the draft. He can be something like a Steve Smith or Santonio Holmes hybrid if everything clicks for him. "

Really no doubt he's a highly gifted athlete? Jeffery and Wright are polar opposites this offseason. Jeffery lost weight and performed very well at his pro day. Wright didn't and lost steam. Yet one is ranked 7 and the other 20??? SEC vs BIG 12. Bad QB play vs RGIII. Seems a lot closer to me and i'd rather have Jeffery moving forward. He has a much better QB.

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Again, with the RB thing you have to use your imagination. Pierce could get on the field any number of ways. Rice could walk in free agency or be traded, Rice could get hurt, Pierce could be traded, Pierce could play out his rookie deal and sign elsewhere (as of this moment he's only 21 years old, though he's about to turn 22). Ray Rice is 25, which is not old, but not really that young for a RB either. He probably has 3-4 peak years left. Pierce will be the same age Rice is today when that dropoff hits, so there would still be time for him to claim the throne.

As for Seattle, Lynch is 26 with a history of knucklehead behavior and inconsistent performance. He just signed an extension, but that doesn't necessarily mean much. His money is only guaranteed through 2014, at which point he'll be a 28 year old RB with a lot of mileage and a high salary. There's some opportunity for Turbin there, especially if Lynch has durability issues (always a problem for RBs).

With the WRs, I think I have them rated pretty fairly. I'm not sold on Jeffery or Hill and I'm not going to elevate them just because they have an easy path to starting roles. Regarding Kendall Wright vs. Alshon Jeffery, the difference in mobility is apparent in the video. One of those players can easily run by his man and the other can't. The triple jump and long jump stuff just confirms that Wright has special athletic gifts, even if they weren't evident in gym shorts at the combine.

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What do you think about Greg childs?

I like him as a third round sleeper. If nothing else, he looks like a guy who will make a roster and fight for playing time. He's big with good speed, and he has some actual quickness and lateral movement, which is rare in the bigger guys. If he can get back to 100% then he could be a nice find. Of the Arkansas receivers, I think he is the most promising. Joe Adams has some potential too, but I am not high on Jairus Wright at all.
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Alshon Jeffery will start opposite Brandon Marshall. That means he will have single coverage most of the time in Chicago and matched up vs #2 CB's. How will they matchup with a 6'3 WR with good body control and great hands? Detroit's top 2 CBs Alphonso Smith 5'9 190 and Chris Houston 5'11 178 can be in his hip pocket all they want. Big WRs box out and use their size to their advantage. Attitude problems, only things i've heard is frustration this past year in South Carolina(QB issues/double teamed). His size at 230, I see that point(although Brandon Marshall is 6'4 230) he did slim down to 216 at his pro day. Think he's not motivated? He was the first rookie to sign his NFL contract. Meaning he won't miss any time. Can Cutler deliver stats to two WRs? The last time he had good WR's in 2008-Marshall 104/1265, Royal 91/980, Stockley 49/526. I can see that being Marshall/Jeffery/Bennett.

Just one note about Jeffery. For a variety of reasons he was almost the entire offense of SC for a good portion of last season. Opposing DCs entire game plan was pretty much just to shut him down. As such, I think what was seen by many as a failure to get separation was a failure to get open (easy to confuse the two, but they are not one and the same). We won't know until he sees some action in the NFL if my premise is correct, but that (along with QB issues) would seem to explain how a player who looked like one of the top prospects in 2010 so badly underperformed last season.

I also agree that he is rated way too low here. When I see highlight clips of Jeffery, I think of the old expression about a player having "A nose for the ball." At times it seems that Jeffery has almost an innate sense of positioning himself correctly once the ball is in the air. I think he has almost the ideal QB in the underrated Jay Cutler (who was like a fish out of water under Mike Martz) and expect the two to become simpatico.

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With the WRs, I think I have them rated pretty fairly. I'm not sold on Jeffery or Hill and I'm not going to elevate them just because they have an easy path to starting roles. Regarding Kendall Wright vs. Alshon Jeffery, the difference in mobility is apparent in the video. One of those players can easily run by his man and the other can't. The triple jump and long jump stuff just confirms that Wright has special athletic gifts, even if they weren't evident in gym shorts at the combine.

The only thing we can know for sure if how athletic they measure in each of the tests. How it applies is a different story.

Kendall Wright

5'10 1/4 height

196 weight

30 1/2 arms

8 5/8 hands

4.61 combine and 4.44/4.47 pro day

11 reps

38.0 vertical

4.03 short shuttle

6.93 3 cone

10'0 broad jump

Alshon Jeffery

6'2 7/8 height

213 weight

33 arms

10 1/4 hands

4.47/4.51 pro day

36.5 vertical

4.17 short shuttle

6.71 3 cone

10'2 broad jump

Height= Jeffery by 4 5/8 inches

Weight= Jeffery by 17 pounds

Arms= Jeffery by 2.5 inches

40= Wright by at least .03

Short Shuttle=Wright by .14

3 cone=Jeffery by .22

Vertical=Wright by 1.5 inches

Broad Jump=Jeffery by 2 inches

Other areas:

QB=Baylor and RGIII by a landslide. Stephen Garcia isn't horrible, but he played in only 5 games this past season(while having his worst season in college) before he was kicked off the team. Then a true sophomore, Conner Shaw, came in and it took awhile before he became consistent.

Other WR talent= South Carolina's second best target had 29 receptions for 383 yards. Baylor had 3 WRs, besides Kendall Wright, that topped that WR total. Terrance Williams(in my top 5 for WRs in 2012 for NCAA next year) finished with 59 receptions for 957 yards 11 TD, Tevin Reese 51 receptions 877 yards 7 TDs, Lanear Sampson 42 receptions for 572 yards 3 TDs. Pretty easy to see that Kendall Wright couldn't be doubled teamed or schemed against as much as Alshon Jeffery.

Pass completions/attempts= Baylor 307/424. South Carolina 191/317...less passes were available for Jeffery.

Career numbers:

Wright 50 games played, 302 receptions for 4,104 yards 13.6 YPR 30 TD

Jeffery 39 games played, 183 receptions for 3,042 yards 16.6 YPR 23 TD

For a big play WR, Jeffery sure does have his number in YPR.

I think Jeffery is a better player and will be a better Pro, but to have them 14 spots differently is wrong.

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23. WR Mohamed Sanu, Bengals - It might be a bit unfair to slot Sanu in a separate tier from players like Jeffery and Randle, but there does seem to be a bit of a gap. Sanu is slower than Jeffery, but probably the better and more mobile overall athlete. He was an impact player for Rutgers. He has good size, toughness, hands, and somewhat decent YAC skills. However, he has no downfield ability whatsoever and is merely a short-mid range possession WR who will help take pressure off AJ Green and the more dynamic components of Cincy's attack. In an absolute best case scenario, he could become the TJ Houshmandzadeh to Green's Ochocinco, but a more likely scenario is a low ceiling of 50 catches/800 yards that prevents Sanu from becoming a relevant FF contributor in most leagues. Still, I like what he did in college and I think he has clear starter potential. I would feel good about taking a cheap gamble on him here.

Love this thread, thanks for sharing. Where are you getting that Sanu is slower than Jeffery? Sanu's pro day times were 4.41 and 4.48, Jefferey's were around the same or higher from what I've seen. I know this is nitpicky but I'm just curious if this is the general consensus. Sanu is one of my picks for best rookie bargain, and I think he has a good shot to be a part of the offense right out of the gate.
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Where are you getting that Sanu is slower than Jeffery? Sanu's pro day times were 4.41 and 4.48, Jefferey's were around the same or higher from what I've seen.

Pro day times are mostly junk - at least the ones that get reported. I'm sure teams have figured out how to make good use of the info they get there, but IMO you shouldn't trust what comes out at all.Combine: Sanu ran a 4.67 and Jefferey didn't run. I think both of them are probably very slow.
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23. WR Mohamed Sanu, Bengals - It might be a bit unfair to slot Sanu in a separate tier from players like Jeffery and Randle, but there does seem to be a bit of a gap. Sanu is slower than Jeffery, but probably the better and more mobile overall athlete. He was an impact player for Rutgers. He has good size, toughness, hands, and somewhat decent YAC skills. However, he has no downfield ability whatsoever and is merely a short-mid range possession WR who will help take pressure off AJ Green and the more dynamic components of Cincy's attack. In an absolute best case scenario, he could become the TJ Houshmandzadeh to Green's Ochocinco, but a more likely scenario is a low ceiling of 50 catches/800 yards that prevents Sanu from becoming a relevant FF contributor in most leagues. Still, I like what he did in college and I think he has clear starter potential. I would feel good about taking a cheap gamble on him here.

Love this thread, thanks for sharing.

Where are you getting that Sanu is slower than Jeffery? Sanu's pro day times were 4.41 and 4.48, Jefferey's were around the same or higher from what I've seen. I know this is nitpicky but I'm just curious if this is the general consensus. Sanu is one of my picks for best rookie bargain, and I think he has a good shot to be a part of the offense right out of the gate.

Those were incorrect times - he actually ran 4.54 and 4.55:

NFL.com's Gil Brandt had Rutgers WR Mohamed Sanu at 4.54 and 4.55 in the forty at the Scarlet Knights' Pro Day.

A previous report had Sanu at 4.41, but that time was obviously agent-inflated. Sanu, who ran 4.67 "officially" at the Combine, lacks long speed to be a game breaker in the NFL. He'll have to make his money working inside the numbers.

He could end up a reliable possession receiver but I'm not excited by his career 10.8 YPC in college.
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My top 30

Richardson

---

Martin

RG3

Luck

Blackmon

---

Wright

Floyd

D Wilson

---

Lamar Miller

LaMichael

Pead

Hillman

AJ Jenkins

Fleener

Randle

---

Turbin

Pierce

Tannehill

Jeffrey

Quick

S Hill

Givens

---

Weeden

Criner

Sanu

Childs

Toon

Marvin Jones

Ballard

R Wilson

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Alshon Jeffery will start opposite Brandon Marshall. That means he will have single coverage most of the time in Chicago and matched up vs #2 CB's. How will they matchup with a 6'3 WR with good body control and great hands? Detroit's top 2 CBs Alphonso Smith 5'9 190 and Chris Houston 5'11 178 can be in his hip pocket all they want. Big WRs box out and use their size to their advantage. Attitude problems, only things i've heard is frustration this past year in South Carolina(QB issues/double teamed). His size at 230, I see that point(although Brandon Marshall is 6'4 230) he did slim down to 216 at his pro day. Think he's not motivated? He was the first rookie to sign his NFL contract. Meaning he won't miss any time. Can Cutler deliver stats to two WRs? The last time he had good WR's in 2008-Marshall 104/1265, Royal 91/980, Stockley 49/526. I can see that being Marshall/Jeffery/Bennett.

Just one note about Jeffery. For a variety of reasons he was almost the entire offense of SC for a good portion of last season. Opposing DCs entire game plan was pretty much just to shut him down. As such, I think what was seen by many as a failure to get separation was a failure to get open (easy to confuse the two, but they are not one and the same). We won't know until he sees some action in the NFL if my premise is correct, but that (along with QB issues) would seem to explain how a player who looked like one of the top prospects in 2010 so badly underperformed last season.

I also agree that he is rated way too low here. When I see highlight clips of Jeffery, I think of the old expression about a player having "A nose for the ball." At times it seems that Jeffery has almost an innate sense of positioning himself correctly once the ball is in the air. I think he has almost the ideal QB in the underrated Jay Cutler (who was like a fish out of water under Mike Martz) and expect the two to become simpatico.

There's a huge difference on tape when you watch him from 2010. He's not the lumbering guy he looked like in 2011. I'm about 50/50 on whether Jeffery will work out but I think his upside is worth the risk. I also believe Marshall will wear out his welcome within a couple years in Chicago.
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23. WR Mohamed Sanu, Bengals - It might be a bit unfair to slot Sanu in a separate tier from players like Jeffery and Randle, but there does seem to be a bit of a gap. Sanu is slower than Jeffery, but probably the better and more mobile overall athlete. He was an impact player for Rutgers. He has good size, toughness, hands, and somewhat decent YAC skills. However, he has no downfield ability whatsoever and is merely a short-mid range possession WR who will help take pressure off AJ Green and the more dynamic components of Cincy's attack. In an absolute best case scenario, he could become the TJ Houshmandzadeh to Green's Ochocinco, but a more likely scenario is a low ceiling of 50 catches/800 yards that prevents Sanu from becoming a relevant FF contributor in most leagues. Still, I like what he did in college and I think he has clear starter potential. I would feel good about taking a cheap gamble on him here.

Love this thread, thanks for sharing.

Where are you getting that Sanu is slower than Jeffery? Sanu's pro day times were 4.41 and 4.48, Jefferey's were around the same or higher from what I've seen. I know this is nitpicky but I'm just curious if this is the general consensus. Sanu is one of my picks for best rookie bargain, and I think he has a good shot to be a part of the offense right out of the gate.

Those were incorrect times - he actually ran 4.54 and 4.55:

NFL.com's Gil Brandt had Rutgers WR Mohamed Sanu at 4.54 and 4.55 in the forty at the Scarlet Knights' Pro Day.

A previous report had Sanu at 4.41, but that time was obviously agent-inflated. Sanu, who ran 4.67 "officially" at the Combine, lacks long speed to be a game breaker in the NFL. He'll have to make his money working inside the numbers.

He could end up a reliable possession receiver but I'm not excited by his career 10.8 YPC in college.
Cool, thx for the info. (still love Sanu though!)
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Alshon Jeffery will start opposite Brandon Marshall. That means he will have single coverage most of the time in Chicago and matched up vs #2 CB's. How will they matchup with a 6'3 WR with good body control and great hands? Detroit's top 2 CBs Alphonso Smith 5'9 190 and Chris Houston 5'11 178 can be in his hip pocket all they want. Big WRs box out and use their size to their advantage. Attitude problems, only things i've heard is frustration this past year in South Carolina(QB issues/double teamed). His size at 230, I see that point(although Brandon Marshall is 6'4 230) he did slim down to 216 at his pro day. Think he's not motivated? He was the first rookie to sign his NFL contract. Meaning he won't miss any time. Can Cutler deliver stats to two WRs? The last time he had good WR's in 2008-Marshall 104/1265, Royal 91/980, Stockley 49/526. I can see that being Marshall/Jeffery/Bennett.

Just one note about Jeffery. For a variety of reasons he was almost the entire offense of SC for a good portion of last season. Opposing DCs entire game plan was pretty much just to shut him down. As such, I think what was seen by many as a failure to get separation was a failure to get open (easy to confuse the two, but they are not one and the same). We won't know until he sees some action in the NFL if my premise is correct, but that (along with QB issues) would seem to explain how a player who looked like one of the top prospects in 2010 so badly underperformed last season.

I also agree that he is rated way too low here. When I see highlight clips of Jeffery, I think of the old expression about a player having "A nose for the ball." At times it seems that Jeffery has almost an innate sense of positioning himself correctly once the ball is in the air. I think he has almost the ideal QB in the underrated Jay Cutler (who was like a fish out of water under Mike Martz) and expect the two to become simpatico.

It's fairly safe to say that before he got injured Marcus Lattimore was the engine that ran that train not Jeffery.
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Love this thread, thanks for sharing. Where are you getting that Sanu is slower than Jeffery? Sanu's pro day times were 4.41 and 4.48, Jefferey's were around the same or higher from what I've seen. I know this is nitpicky but I'm just curious if this is the general consensus. Sanu is one of my picks for best rookie bargain, and I think he has a good shot to be a part of the offense right out of the gate.

As Rob said, it comes from the combine. However, it's not just about the combine numbers. Kendall Wright ran slow at the combine, but when you watch game clips he flies by people with ease. The combine numbers are relevant, but the most important thing is what happens on the field. Sanu shows no deep speed in games. His yard per catch reflects a lack of speed as well. I like him as a player and I think he can be a contributor for the Bengals, but he is strictly a possession guy.
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Alshon Jeffery will start opposite Brandon Marshall. That means he will have single coverage most of the time in Chicago and matched up vs #2 CB's. How will they matchup with a 6'3 WR with good body control and great hands? Detroit's top 2 CBs Alphonso Smith 5'9 190 and Chris Houston 5'11 178 can be in his hip pocket all they want. Big WRs box out and use their size to their advantage. Attitude problems, only things i've heard is frustration this past year in South Carolina(QB issues/double teamed). His size at 230, I see that point(although Brandon Marshall is 6'4 230) he did slim down to 216 at his pro day. Think he's not motivated? He was the first rookie to sign his NFL contract. Meaning he won't miss any time. Can Cutler deliver stats to two WRs? The last time he had good WR's in 2008-Marshall 104/1265, Royal 91/980, Stockley 49/526. I can see that being Marshall/Jeffery/Bennett.

Just one note about Jeffery. For a variety of reasons he was almost the entire offense of SC for a good portion of last season. Opposing DCs entire game plan was pretty much just to shut him down. As such, I think what was seen by many as a failure to get separation was a failure to get open (easy to confuse the two, but they are not one and the same). We won't know until he sees some action in the NFL if my premise is correct, but that (along with QB issues) would seem to explain how a player who looked like one of the top prospects in 2010 so badly underperformed last season.

I also agree that he is rated way too low here. When I see highlight clips of Jeffery, I think of the old expression about a player having "A nose for the ball." At times it seems that Jeffery has almost an innate sense of positioning himself correctly once the ball is in the air. I think he has almost the ideal QB in the underrated Jay Cutler (who was like a fish out of water under Mike Martz) and expect the two to become simpatico.

It's fairly safe to say that before he got injured Marcus Lattimore was the engine that ran that train not Jeffery.
Didn't say Jeffery ran the train, but he became the engine after Lattimore was injured IMO.
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There's a huge difference on tape when you watch him from 2010. He's not the lumbering guy he looked like in 2011. I'm about 50/50 on whether Jeffery will work out but I think his upside is worth the risk. I also believe Marshall will wear out his welcome within a couple years in Chicago.

FWIW, I've been saying some of this stuff about Jeffery for months. http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=608353&st=0&p=13488187entry13488187

On the topic of South Carolina, I'm also not as high on Alshon Jeffery as most. Big guy with good strength and great hands, but...he's not the smoothest runner. I could see him struggling with his route running and YAC. I'll try to watch more of his games this season. For now I clearly prefer Justin Blackmon. Blackmon is like 95% of Dez, and if you knew how much I liked Dez as a prospect, you'd take that as effusive praise. Big kid who looks much more nimble and fluid than Jeffery (though he's not as tall). I see him being kind of like a Dwayne Bowe/Anquan Boldin/Mike Williams TB type in the NFL. Not incredible speed, but good enough with a pretty big frame to be that possession/YAC kind of WR.

This is not an "I told you so" sort of thing. Just pointing out that I had some concerns about his mobility even before he fell out of favor. He isn't a great runner and looks like he's laboring a bit when he's trying to separate. Even "slow" NFL possession WRs like Boldin and Colston run fluidly. Jeffery is not quite there, though he's certainly not a complete stiff. I don't hate the guy's ability. I like production and he has certainly had his moments in the SEC. He also has some qualities that should translate well to the NFL (size + hands + jump ball skills). There are some missing pieces though, and it remains to be seen how they're going to affect his results at the next level. One thing I should mention is that the value difference within tiers is far lower than the value difference between tiers, so the fact that I have him at 20 as opposed to something like 13-15 isn't that significant. Beyond a couple guys like Randle and Pierce who really should be in a "TIER 2.5," most of the players in the third tier are crap shoots in my view.
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Being ppr rankings pead and james seem low. Pierce and turbin are average at best. Pead and james have at least some elite aspects.

Looking at the odds, it's pretty likely that at least one guy each out of Hillman/Pead/James and Quick/Hill/Jeffery will succeed. The reason I rank them relatively low is because I have little faith in their ability. I feel confident that Pierce and Turbin could step in and start for an NFL team tomorrow with decent results, but the smaller backs have natural size limitations that raise questions about their FF ceilings. I really don't see them as players who can handle a full workload in most systems. Analysts are quick to throw out the Darren Sproles comparison, but Sproles has ideal bulk for his height and is far more dynamic than this crew. The hope with Hillman/Pead/James is that you get a LeSean McCoy or Jamaal Charles. There is that potential, but it's really hard for me to look at those guys and feel confident about their chances of success. When that's the case with a player, I usually let someone else take a chance on him. As for Pierce, I wouldn't say he's average. He's just not flashy. Some people equate speed and quickness with upside. However, the ability to grind out yards has value too. That's the reason guys like Frank Gore, Shonn Greene, and Cedric Benson are employed. Pierce was the third 215+ pound back selected in the draft (behind Richardson and Martin) and is one of the only guys with obvious 300+ carry potential.
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There's a huge difference on tape when you watch him from 2010. He's not the lumbering guy he looked like in 2011. I'm about 50/50 on whether Jeffery will work out but I think his upside is worth the risk. I also believe Marshall will wear out his welcome within a couple years in Chicago.

FWIW, I've been saying some of this stuff about Jeffery for months. http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=608353&st=0&p=13488187entry13488187

On the topic of South Carolina, I'm also not as high on Alshon Jeffery as most. Big guy with good strength and great hands, but...he's not the smoothest runner. I could see him struggling with his route running and YAC. I'll try to watch more of his games this season. For now I clearly prefer Justin Blackmon. Blackmon is like 95% of Dez, and if you knew how much I liked Dez as a prospect, you'd take that as effusive praise. Big kid who looks much more nimble and fluid than Jeffery (though he's not as tall). I see him being kind of like a Dwayne Bowe/Anquan Boldin/Mike Williams TB type in the NFL. Not incredible speed, but good enough with a pretty big frame to be that possession/YAC kind of WR.

This is not an "I told you so" sort of thing. Just pointing out that I had some concerns about his mobility even before he fell out of favor. He isn't a great runner and looks like he's laboring a bit when he's trying to separate. Even "slow" NFL possession WRs like Boldin and Colston run fluidly. Jeffery is not quite there, though he's certainly not a complete stiff. I don't hate the guy's ability. I like production and he has certainly had his moments in the SEC. He also has some qualities that should translate well to the NFL (size + hands + jump ball skills). There are some missing pieces though, and it remains to be seen how they're going to affect his results at the next level. One thing I should mention is that the value difference within tiers is far lower than the value difference between tiers, so the fact that I have him at 20 as opposed to something like 13-15 isn't that significant. Beyond a couple guys like Randle and Pierce who really should be in a "TIER 2.5," most of the players in the third tier are crap shoots in my view.
I don't disagree with anything you've said. He was way down my draft board until he went to Chicago with Cutler throwing the ball. Fantasy-wise, I'm not a fan of the RB's in that tier except for Pead and at QB Tannehill does nothing for me, so I have Jeffery higher. I do understand having him after Quick and Jenkins and I had a hard time taking Jeffery before Quick myself.
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With the WRs, I think I have them rated pretty fairly. I'm not sold on Jeffery or Hill and I'm not going to elevate them just because they have an easy path to starting roles. Regarding Kendall Wright vs. Alshon Jeffery, the difference in mobility is apparent in the video. One of those players can easily run by his man and the other can't. The triple jump and long jump stuff just confirms that Wright has special athletic gifts, even if they weren't evident in gym shorts at the combine.

The only thing we can know for sure if how athletic they measure in each of the tests. How it applies is a different story.

Kendall Wright

5'10 1/4 height

196 weight

30 1/2 arms

8 5/8 hands

4.61 combine and 4.44/4.47 pro day

11 reps

38.0 vertical

4.03 short shuttle

6.93 3 cone

10'0 broad jump

Alshon Jeffery

6'2 7/8 height

213 weight

33 arms

10 1/4 hands

4.47/4.51 pro day

36.5 vertical

4.17 short shuttle

6.71 3 cone

10'2 broad jump

Height= Jeffery by 4 5/8 inches

Weight= Jeffery by 17 pounds

Arms= Jeffery by 2.5 inches

40= Wright by at least .03

Short Shuttle=Wright by .14

3 cone=Jeffery by .22

Vertical=Wright by 1.5 inches

Broad Jump=Jeffery by 2 inches

Other areas:

QB=Baylor and RGIII by a landslide. Stephen Garcia isn't horrible, but he played in only 5 games this past season(while having his worst season in college) before he was kicked off the team. Then a true sophomore, Conner Shaw, came in and it took awhile before he became consistent.

Other WR talent= South Carolina's second best target had 29 receptions for 383 yards. Baylor had 3 WRs, besides Kendall Wright, that topped that WR total. Terrance Williams(in my top 5 for WRs in 2012 for NCAA next year) finished with 59 receptions for 957 yards 11 TD, Tevin Reese 51 receptions 877 yards 7 TDs, Lanear Sampson 42 receptions for 572 yards 3 TDs. Pretty easy to see that Kendall Wright couldn't be doubled teamed or schemed against as much as Alshon Jeffery.

Pass completions/attempts= Baylor 307/424. South Carolina 191/317...less passes were available for Jeffery.

Career numbers:

Wright 50 games played, 302 receptions for 4,104 yards 13.6 YPR 30 TD

Jeffery 39 games played, 183 receptions for 3,042 yards 16.6 YPR 23 TD

For a big play WR, Jeffery sure does have his number in YPR.

I think Jeffery is a better player and will be a better Pro, but to have them 14 spots differently is wrong.

These statistical profiles only provide information. You like them as an indication of potential and performance but you can't rely upon it. It's Still what you do on the field, against an opponent. Would you draft Charles Barkely 6'4" as an NBA forward? Probably not. Running routes, getting open attacking the ball in the air...finding a way. Jerry Rice reportedly ran a 4.71 40yd dash at 6'2 200lbs+/-....from a D3 school. At the other end Ryan Leaf or Peyton Manning? that was the big question over a decade ago. Leaf was faster and more athletic. Manning has done OK for himself. An injury ended Leaf's career prematurely...but it wasn't going well. Tebow isn't a great QB in the classical sense but he is scrappy and finds a way to win games.

I think you gotta find a reason to like certain players. Go with that reason and hope it pans out.

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Alshon Jeffery will start opposite Brandon Marshall. That means he will have single coverage most of the time in Chicago and matched up vs #2 CB's. How will they matchup with a 6'3 WR with good body control and great hands? Detroit's top 2 CBs Alphonso Smith 5'9 190 and Chris Houston 5'11 178 can be in his hip pocket all they want. Big WRs box out and use their size to their advantage. Attitude problems, only things i've heard is frustration this past year in South Carolina(QB issues/double teamed). His size at 230, I see that point(although Brandon Marshall is 6'4 230) he did slim down to 216 at his pro day. Think he's not motivated? He was the first rookie to sign his NFL contract. Meaning he won't miss any time. Can Cutler deliver stats to two WRs? The last time he had good WR's in 2008-Marshall 104/1265, Royal 91/980, Stockley 49/526. I can see that being Marshall/Jeffery/Bennett.

Just one note about Jeffery. For a variety of reasons he was almost the entire offense of SC for a good portion of last season. Opposing DCs entire game plan was pretty much just to shut him down. As such, I think what was seen by many as a failure to get separation was a failure to get open (easy to confuse the two, but they are not one and the same). We won't know until he sees some action in the NFL if my premise is correct, but that (along with QB issues) would seem to explain how a player who looked like one of the top prospects in 2010 so badly underperformed last season.

I also agree that he is rated way too low here. When I see highlight clips of Jeffery, I think of the old expression about a player having "A nose for the ball." At times it seems that Jeffery has almost an innate sense of positioning himself correctly once the ball is in the air. I think he has almost the ideal QB in the underrated Jay Cutler (who was like a fish out of water under Mike Martz) and expect the two to become simpatico.

It's fairly safe to say that before he got injured Marcus Lattimore was the engine that ran that train not Jeffery.
Didn't say Jeffery ran the train, but he became the engine after Lattimore was injured IMO.
You said he was the entire offense, just pointing out that Lattimore was the entire offense. One could safely argue that Jefferey benefited from having a stud in the backfield.

ETA: Outstanding thread as usual EBF! Keep up the good work! :thumbup:

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Other WR talent= South Carolina's second best target had 29 receptions for 383 yards. Baylor had 3 WRs, besides Kendall Wright, that topped that WR total. Terrance Williams(in my top 5 for WRs in 2012 for NCAA next year) finished with 59 receptions for 957 yards 11 TD, Tevin Reese 51 receptions 877 yards 7 TDs, Lanear Sampson 42 receptions for 572 yards 3 TDs. Pretty easy to see that Kendall Wright couldn't be doubled teamed or schemed against as much as Alshon Jeffery.

I have major reservations about Wright due to him playing with RG3. Wright should be a good NFL receiver, but IMO RG3 caused so much trouble for defenses that it made those guys look incredible and better than they actually are.
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EBF... I'm in a Start 2QB 10-Team league.

Quality QBs are hard to come by.

I plan on taking LUCK with the #2 overall pick. I see the first 3 picks going T-RICH, LUCK, RG3.

Just wondering how you might shuffle your rankings if it were a 2-QB league.

Thanks for the work and the input.

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EBF... I'm in a Start 2QB 10-Team league. Quality QBs are hard to come by. I plan on taking LUCK with the #2 overall pick. I see the first 3 picks going T-RICH, LUCK, RG3. Just wondering how you might shuffle your rankings if it were a 2-QB league. Thanks for the work and the input.

Never played in one myself, but I do play in a league that gives equal value to passing/rushing/receiving yards and TDs.In a format that gives big value to QBs, Luck would be my top player. How do you pass on the best QB prospect of the past decade? I don't think you can. The tough part for me would be deciding between Richardson and Griffin. Richardson is a can't-miss prospect whereas Griffin has a bit more risk, but plays a more prestigious position (in those formats) with more longevity potential. Really tough call.Might just try to trade up to 1.01 to guarantee myself Luck. Lots of people love Richardson and many people prefer Griffin to Luck or have them ranked very closely, so you could probably make the jump for a modest cost.If that fails, hope Luck falls. If not, make a tough decision between RG3/Richardson. Richardson is the safer pick without a doubt, but I might be tempted to take RG3 knowing that the potential payoff is higher.
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Alshon Jeffery will start opposite Brandon Marshall. That means he will have single coverage most of the time in Chicago and matched up vs #2 CB's. How will they matchup with a 6'3 WR with good body control and great hands? Detroit's top 2 CBs Alphonso Smith 5'9 190 and Chris Houston 5'11 178 can be in his hip pocket all they want. Big WRs box out and use their size to their advantage. Attitude problems, only things i've heard is frustration this past year in South Carolina(QB issues/double teamed). His size at 230, I see that point(although Brandon Marshall is 6'4 230) he did slim down to 216 at his pro day. Think he's not motivated? He was the first rookie to sign his NFL contract. Meaning he won't miss any time. Can Cutler deliver stats to two WRs? The last time he had good WR's in 2008-Marshall 104/1265, Royal 91/980, Stockley 49/526. I can see that being Marshall/Jeffery/Bennett.

Just one note about Jeffery. For a variety of reasons he was almost the entire offense of SC for a good portion of last season. Opposing DCs entire game plan was pretty much just to shut him down. As such, I think what was seen by many as a failure to get separation was a failure to get open (easy to confuse the two, but they are not one and the same). We won't know until he sees some action in the NFL if my premise is correct, but that (along with QB issues) would seem to explain how a player who looked like one of the top prospects in 2010 so badly underperformed last season.

I also agree that he is rated way too low here. When I see highlight clips of Jeffery, I think of the old expression about a player having "A nose for the ball." At times it seems that Jeffery has almost an innate sense of positioning himself correctly once the ball is in the air. I think he has almost the ideal QB in the underrated Jay Cutler (who was like a fish out of water under Mike Martz) and expect the two to become simpatico.

It's fairly safe to say that before he got injured Marcus Lattimore was the engine that ran that train not Jeffery.
Didn't say Jeffery ran the train, but he became the engine after Lattimore was injured IMO.
You said he was the entire offense, just pointing out that Lattimore was the entire offense. One could safely argue that Jefferey benefited from having a stud in the backfield.

ETA: Outstanding thread as usual EBF! Keep up the good work! :thumbup:

No, I didn't - see above. My exact words were "he was almost the entire offense of SC for a good portion of last season," and I was referring to the time after Lattimore was injured, which I thought was stating the obvious, but apparently not.
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With the WRs, I think I have them rated pretty fairly. I'm not sold on Jeffery or Hill and I'm not going to elevate them just because they have an easy path to starting roles. Regarding Kendall Wright vs. Alshon Jeffery, the difference in mobility is apparent in the video. One of those players can easily run by his man and the other can't. The triple jump and long jump stuff just confirms that Wright has special athletic gifts, even if they weren't evident in gym shorts at the combine.

The only thing we can know for sure if how athletic they measure in each of the tests. How it applies is a different story.

Kendall Wright

5'10 1/4 height

196 weight

30 1/2 arms

8 5/8 hands

4.61 combine and 4.44/4.47 pro day

11 reps

38.0 vertical

4.03 short shuttle

6.93 3 cone

10'0 broad jump

Alshon Jeffery

6'2 7/8 height

213 weight

33 arms

10 1/4 hands

4.47/4.51 pro day

36.5 vertical

4.17 short shuttle

6.71 3 cone

10'2 broad jump

Height= Jeffery by 4 5/8 inches

Weight= Jeffery by 17 pounds

Arms= Jeffery by 2.5 inches

40= Wright by at least .03

Short Shuttle=Wright by .14

3 cone=Jeffery by .22

Vertical=Wright by 1.5 inches

Broad Jump=Jeffery by 2 inches

Other areas:

QB=Baylor and RGIII by a landslide. Stephen Garcia isn't horrible, but he played in only 5 games this past season(while having his worst season in college) before he was kicked off the team. Then a true sophomore, Conner Shaw, came in and it took awhile before he became consistent.

Other WR talent= South Carolina's second best target had 29 receptions for 383 yards. Baylor had 3 WRs, besides Kendall Wright, that topped that WR total. Terrance Williams(in my top 5 for WRs in 2012 for NCAA next year) finished with 59 receptions for 957 yards 11 TD, Tevin Reese 51 receptions 877 yards 7 TDs, Lanear Sampson 42 receptions for 572 yards 3 TDs. Pretty easy to see that Kendall Wright couldn't be doubled teamed or schemed against as much as Alshon Jeffery.

Pass completions/attempts= Baylor 307/424. South Carolina 191/317...less passes were available for Jeffery.

Career numbers:

Wright 50 games played, 302 receptions for 4,104 yards 13.6 YPR 30 TD

Jeffery 39 games played, 183 receptions for 3,042 yards 16.6 YPR 23 TD

For a big play WR, Jeffery sure does have his number in YPR.

I think Jeffery is a better player and will be a better Pro, but to have them 14 spots differently is wrong.

These statistical profiles only provide information. You like them as an indication of potential and performance but you can't rely upon it. It's Still what you do on the field, against an opponent. Would you draft Charles Barkely 6'4" as an NBA forward? Probably not. Running routes, getting open attacking the ball in the air...finding a way. Jerry Rice reportedly ran a 4.71 40yd dash at 6'2 200lbs+/-....from a D3 school. At the other end Ryan Leaf or Peyton Manning? that was the big question over a decade ago. Leaf was faster and more athletic. Manning has done OK for himself. An injury ended Leaf's career prematurely...but it wasn't going well. Tebow isn't a great QB in the classical sense but he is scrappy and finds a way to win games.

I think you gotta find a reason to like certain players. Go with that reason and hope it pans out.

Your post makes no sense.

Facts can't indicate future performance...so what do you base it on?

I listed every physical trait, lots of statistics...QB's, other skill players as comparisons between two players.

If you think nothing can be predicted, then put all the names in a hat and pick one out. Leave the analysis to the real sharks.

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I don't know fellas, I'm liking Alshon right now as the #3 guy behind Blackmon and Floyd, and the best VALUE overall at wideout. I think he's going to flourish with Cutler, Forte, and Marshall taking heat. He's not a similar player but will benefit much like Julio Jones did last season. Couple that with pourous secondaries in Green Bay, Minnesota, and Detroit and you are looking at a potentail 65 catch, 900yd, 5-7 td type of rookie season.

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Being ppr rankings pead and james seem low. Pierce and turbin are average at best. Pead and james have at least some elite aspects.

The reason I rank them relatively low is because I have little faith in their ability. I feel confident that Pierce and Turbin could step in and start for an NFL team tomorrow with decent results, but the smaller backs have natural size limitations that raise questions about their FF ceilings. I really don't see them as players who can handle a full workload in most systems. Analysts are quick to throw out the Darren Sproles comparison, but Sproles has ideal bulk for his height and is far more dynamic than this crew.
This is my argument with the Wright>>(14 spots)>>Jeffery/Hill. I don't get it and you've failed to list anything besides not being smooth/explosive on tape...but will discount any of the offseason(combine/pro day) results that prove they're more equal.

Robert Turbin/Bernard Pierce aren't even in Matt Waldman's RSP top 10 RBs.

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I don't know fellas, I'm liking Alshon right now as the #3 guy behind Blackmon and Floyd, and the best VALUE overall at wideout. I think he's going to flourish with Cutler, Forte, and Marshall taking heat. He's not a similar player but will benefit much like Julio Jones did last season. Couple that with pourous secondaries in Green Bay, Minnesota, and Detroit and you are looking at a potentail 65 catch, 900yd, 5-7 td type of rookie season.

Considering where he has been falling in drafts, I am prety much with you on that. Jeffery was on my target list in 3 leagues where I had a late 1st rounder (1.10 to 1.12) but he was gone in all 3 when I got to pick. The only league I got him was at 2.03 where suprisingly (at least to me) Broyles, Quick and Hill went before him at 1.11, 2.01 and 2.02 respectively (Blackmon, Flyod and Wright were long gone). Definitely a higher degree of risk with Jeffery but much higher upside IMO.
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I don't know fellas, I'm liking Alshon right now as the #3 guy behind Blackmon and Floyd, and the best VALUE overall at wideout. I think he's going to flourish with Cutler, Forte, and Marshall taking heat. He's not a similar player but will benefit much like Julio Jones did last season. Couple that with pourous secondaries in Green Bay, Minnesota, and Detroit and you are looking at a potential 65 catch, 900yd, 5-7 td type of rookie season.

Disclosure: I'm both a Gamecock and a Bears fan. But it's hard to exaggerate how bad the QB situation was last year in Columbia. Garcia was wildly inconsistent before being booted, and Connor Shaw really had no business starting for an SEC team. Throw in a stud at tailback in Lattimore, game planning for Jeffery by opposing DCs, and it's not hard to see why Spurrier went heavy with the run. People say that Jeffery is fat and slow, but he completely dominated the SEC (including now high NFL draftees Janoris Jenkins and Dre Fitzpatrick) with the same physique as a sophomore. And now they say he's down from 230 to 215. Had he come out a year earlier, how far would he been picked behind SEC peers AJ Green and Julio Jones? Instead, he was a good soldier as a junior, becoming a solid blocker and less frequent target for a team that won 11 games.Watch his games, and the guy is just money in the clutch, showing great hands and a real nose for the ball. Very doubtful he'll have any difficulty with the jam at the line or in any jump ball situations. With Cutler and the Bears, Jeffery is walking into a perfect situation, on a team with an aging defense and a need to score to keep up with high powered offenses in Green Bay and Detroit. I'm really struggling to understand why guys like Quick, Randle, and Hill are even in the same conversation with Jeffery. I'm even becoming more comfortable with the idea of taking him over Floyd in my 1/2 PPR rookie draft at 1.07.
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This is my argument with the Wright>>(14 spots)>>Jeffery/Hill. I don't get it and you've failed to list anything besides not being smooth/explosive on tape...but will discount any of the offseason(combine/pro day) results that prove they're more equal.

Imho, what happens before February is much more important than what happens February and later.Personally, Hill and Jeffrey were well down my draft board (outside the top 50, not in my top 7 WR's) before February and Wright was in my top 20 overall, #2 WR. Does February and beyond have an impact on rankings? Yea, it should, some. Wright was a slam dunk top 5 pick imho in January and now I wouldn't consider him until the 6-8 range. I still wouldn't take Hill or Jeffrey til the end of the 2nd/beginning of the 3rd, but that's earlier than I would have considered either of them in January. If you feel good about your pre February opinion there really is no reason to take the info gathered since then and adjust too much. Tweak, yea, but the reasons I wasn't a big fan of Jeffrey and Hill pre February were because of what I saw on the football field and that's what really matters. They have the raw tools to succeed and they also have warts to over come, they can do that on someone else's team. I feel better about other risks like LMJ and Jenkins in the 2nd, if either of them or Randle slip far enough then yea I'll take the shot but from what I'm seeing that's not happening.
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This is my argument with the Wright>>(14 spots)>>Jeffery/Hill. I don't get it and you've failed to list anything besides not being smooth/explosive on tape...but will discount any of the offseason(combine/pro day) results that prove they're more equal.

Pro day results don't necessarily prove anything. LeSean McCoy, Cedric Benson, and Frank Gore totally bombed their workouts. Brandon Jackson, Donald Brown, and Joseph Addai killed theirs. None of this says much about how they function on a football field, which is the most important consideration.It's not hard to justify ranking Wright well above Jeffery. For one thing, he went a lot higher in the NFL draft. Some teams make bad picks, but in general draft position is one of the best indicators of future value. So that right there is a big feather in Wright's cap. And then there's the eyeball test. Jeffery is a big play receiver who lacks speed and relies on his size, strength, and hands. Wright is a big play receiver who can run by coverage and take short throws a long distance. This is not something that is obvious in the numbers, but it's obvious in seeing them play and reading scouting reports about these players. I'm not really sure where you're going with this argument. If pro day results are all that matters to you then Stephen Hill and David Wilson should be your top 2 picks. Football is not that simple though.

Robert Turbin/Bernard Pierce aren't even in Matt Waldman's RSP top 10 RBs.

With all due respect to him, what does that matter? I know he has made some good calls in the past, but also some very bad ones. He has a tendency to hype up some really mediocre talents (Chad Spann, Bilal Powell, Xavier Omon, etc). Pierce was a top 100 pick by an organization that knows how to identify talent. I am not quite as high on Turbin, but I think he has a lot of the characteristics of an effective NFL RB and he was also a pretty high draft choice.
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This is my argument with the Wright>>(14 spots)>>Jeffery/Hill. I don't get it and you've failed to list anything besides not being smooth/explosive on tape...but will discount any of the offseason(combine/pro day) results that prove they're more equal.

None of this says much about how they function on a football field, which is the most important consideration.

It's not hard to justify ranking Wright well above Jeffery. For one thing, he went a lot higher in the NFL draft. Some teams make bad picks, but in general draft position is one of the best indicators of future value. So that right there is a big feather in Wright's cap. And then there's the eyeball test. Jeffery is a big play receiver who lacks speed and relies on his size, strength, and hands. Wright is a big play receiver who can run by coverage and take short throws a long distance. This is not something that is obvious in the numbers, but it's obvious in seeing them play and reading scouting reports about these players.

You can't have everything both ways:

If it's where they were drafted

-Then how do you have Bernard Pierce/Robert Turbin 3rd/4th round picks ahead of high second round picks Jeffery/Hill??

If how they function on the field is the most important factor

-Then why isn't YPC the most telling? Wrights a big play guy...yet Alshon isn't and his YPR is better by 3 yards.

Pro Days aren't everything I agree, but they do have some sort of use or else why are they even in place. I broke down every physical trait I could that was measured...Wright won in 40 yard dash by a little, 1.5 inches in vertical and in short shuttle. Jeffery is a much taller WR(with a smaller BMI), longer arms, bigger hands, better hands, better broad jump, better 3 cone drill, better YPR, played in a tougher conference with a worse QB and little WR support around himself.

Yet you still justify 14 spots by what you see. Well what did you see?

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This is my argument with the Wright>>(14 spots)>>Jeffery/Hill. I don't get it and you've failed to list anything besides not being smooth/explosive on tape...but will discount any of the offseason(combine/pro day) results that prove they're more equal.

None of this says much about how they function on a football field, which is the most important consideration.

It's not hard to justify ranking Wright well above Jeffery. For one thing, he went a lot higher in the NFL draft. Some teams make bad picks, but in general draft position is one of the best indicators of future value. So that right there is a big feather in Wright's cap. And then there's the eyeball test. Jeffery is a big play receiver who lacks speed and relies on his size, strength, and hands. Wright is a big play receiver who can run by coverage and take short throws a long distance. This is not something that is obvious in the numbers, but it's obvious in seeing them play and reading scouting reports about these players.

You can't have everything both ways:

If it's where they were drafted

-Then how do you have Bernard Pierce/Robert Turbin 3rd/4th round picks ahead of high second round picks Jeffery/Hill??

If how they function on the field is the most important factor

-Then why isn't YPC the most telling? Wrights a big play guy...yet Alshon isn't and his YPR is better by 3 yards.

Pro Days aren't everything I agree, but they do have some sort of use or else why are they even in place. I broke down every physical trait I could that was measured...Wright won in 40 yard dash by a little, 1.5 inches in vertical and in short shuttle. Jeffery is a much taller WR(with a smaller BMI), longer arms, bigger hands, better hands, better broad jump, better 3 cone drill, better YPR, played in a tougher conference with a worse QB and little WR support around himself.

Yet you still justify 14 spots by what you see. Well what did you see?

No one variable dominates. When I'm ranking these guys, I look at the draft position, the workouts, the statistics, the scouting reports, and then I watch whatever clips I can find. There is no hypocrisy in saying that draft position is an important consideration while also saying that it's not the ONLY consideration. The same goes for all of the other variables.

This is a thread where people offer opinions about players. No one is forcing you to agree. If you think Jeffery is equal in value to Wright then by all means act accordingly. The beauty of FF is that you get to put your money where your mouth is and see what happens. You asked my opinion. I provided it. And yet you're still arguing. I'm not sure what kind of resolution you're seeking.

Wright looks better to me than Jeffery. I don't need to say anything beyond that. Are there other variables? Sure, but that it is the gist of it for me.

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no vick ballard?

I had him overrated in the past. Decent player who can produce in a pinch, but strikes me as a pretty average NFL backup type. Good value for the low cost in rookie drafts. Just don't get your hopes up too high.
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These rankings are intended for PPR leagues with standard scoring. You'll notice that the tiers get bigger as you move further down the ladder. This is only natural because there are only a handful of "can't-miss" prospects in any given draft. The rest are mediocrities with various flaws whose value will hinge more heavily on opportunity and supporting cast. Without further ado...

TIER ONE

1. RB Trent Richardson, Browns - No surprises here. Richardson has been my #1 overall from wire to wire this year. Much has been said about him already, so there's little need to rehash it. He's a complete back with an ideal frame and skill set. Some critics who favor more explosive backs might be disappointed with his lack of elite top end speed, but he's hardly slow and you don't need great wheels to be an elite pro RB (see: Foster, McCoy, Rice). This position is about power, quick feet, vision, and elusiveness. Richardson has all of those things in droves and is the safest bet of any RB I've seen come into the league in the past decade. Injuries are really the only thing that can prevent him from being a consensus top 5 dynasty RB for the next 4-5 years.

TIER TWO

2. WR Justin Blackmon, Jaguars - In many draft classes, Blackmon would be a first tier prospect and a contender for the 1.01 rookie slot. He's not the slam-dunk elite lock that Richardson is, but he's a high quality prospect with a very good chance of becoming a perennial 1000+ yard guy in the NFL. I think he is a bit underappreciated because he lacks elite combine numbers that you can point to for reassurance, but there's no doubt that Blackmon is an elite player on gameday. He has dominated his opposition for two full years despite being the focal point of opposing defenses, who have had no answer for him. It's true that he doesn't have the raw physical gifts of Andre or Calvin Johnson, but who does? Blackmon has all the ability needed to become a Dwayne Bowe/Anquan Boldin type in the NFL. He has good playing strength, adequate speed, good quickness, and is very athletic on the field.

3. RB Doug Martin, Buccaneers - Martin is not as talented as players like Blackmon, Luck, and Griffin, but he benefits from playing a prestige position where instant impact is relatively common. Martin is a complete three-down back with no real weaknesses. He has good speed, power, quickness, hands, vision, and elusiveness. He should be able to step in and produce from day one. He's not the rare talent that Trent Richardson is, but it's entirely possible that he'll outscore him in redraft leagues. There is some risk that Blount could vulture some of his carries, but I think Martin is probably talented enough to win the job outright and I expect nice returns immediately, with top 10 PPG numbers a realistic possibility. The downside is that Martin is a bit old for a rookie, is not a truly elite talent, and plays a position with a short shelf life. He should be good for the immediate future, but in the long run his FF output might be lapped by players like Luck and Blackmon who can probably stick around the league longer.

4. QB Andrew Luck, Colts - It feels silly to rank Luck this low given his status as a consensus "once-per-decade" type of prospect. There's little doubting his credentials, but I'd argue that QB remains a luxury position in most FF leagues despite last year's inflated passing stats. With most FF leagues only having 10-14 teams and 1 starting QB, it simply isn't that difficult to acquire a capable starter at the QB position. This reduces the value of Luck and Griffin. Unless they become super elite players, they probably won't score enough points to justify passing on solid starters at the more difficult positions to address. This is the primary reason why I have them so low. Still, Luck is an appealing option if you're thinking long-term. He has first round physical ability paired with rare mental talent for the position. Add a blue collar work ethic to that equation and you have a likely 10+ year starter in the NFL. I think his floor is Matt Ryan and his ceiling is something like Peyton Manning.

5. WR Michael Floyd, Cardinals - Floyd has seemingly been around forever, remaining firmly in the draft prospect spotlight throughout all four of his years at Notre Dame. He's a tall jump ball WR with good speed and just enough quickness and route running ability to get by. Floyd will never be an ankle-breaker and I have some minor concerns about his route running, but overall he stands out as a solid first round NFL talent with #1 potential. His ability to win jump balls will prove valuable at the next level, where his height and speed will make him a dangerous target downfield and in the red zone. He's not a waterbug, but I think he runs pretty well for a tall receiver. There are a lot of ways to skin a corner, and Floyd's overall package of skills will make him a difficult assignment, especially with Fitzgerald commanding most of the attention for the next few seasons. Expect Floyd to instantly improve Arizona's offense.

6. QB Robert Griffin III, Redskins - Like Luck, Griffin's FF value suffers a bit because of the position he plays. Last year Cam Newton was a late first-early second round pick in most rookie drafts despite a similar resume. Griffin is getting a lot more hype and going a lot higher, but I would have a hard time taking him earlier than this in most formats because there are so many other appealing options in this draft. Griffin is an elite athlete who put up monster passing stats during the 2011 college season. People will automatically compare him to Cam Newton, but he is significantly smaller and not as agile. I don't think Griffin will be the dynamic red zone runner that Cam is. Nevertheless, his elite mobility is definitely a plus and he seems to have enough pure passing ability to thrive even without relying on his athleticism. He's not the safe pick that Luck is, but his ceiling is just as high. I would feel good about getting him as my developmental dynasty QB in the middle of the first round.

7. WR Kendall Wright, Titans - Wright is similar to Blackmon in that he is more of a football player than a workout warrior. His combine numbers don't reflect his performance on the field, where he shows instant quickness and frightening speed to easily outmatch the corners he faced. Wright is short, but he is heavy for his height and an excellent leaper. He was a Texas state champion in triple jump and long jump. He has also played for Baylor's basketball team. Even though showed up looking doughy at the combine and was generally unimpressive in drills, there's no doubt that he's a highly talented athlete. I have some concerns about his work ethic and I wonder if the locker room in Tennessee will be a bad influence, but he's a fair gamble at this stage of the draft. He can be something like a Steve Smith or Santonio Holmes hybrid if everything clicks for him.

8. RB David Wilson, Giants - From a pure measurables standpoint, Wilson is one of the most gifted athletes in the draft. His workout numbers reflect a rare level of explosiveness. Far from being a mere workout specimen, Wilson is a productive player who ranked among the nation's leaders in rushing yards last year. His combination of productivity, measurables, opportunity, and pedigree makes him a very promising option for FF purposes. He's one of those guys who could become a real dynamo if everything clicks. On the other hand, he's a bit undersized for a long term NFL featured back and I have some concerns about his vision. A lot of his runs came on sweeps or in other situations where he could just use his raw speed to blaze by everyone. He was less consistent through the middle and didn't always show good anticipation and elusiveness. Pair that with his somewhat diminutive frame and you could be looking at durability issues. Still, the dynamic talent and large upside keeps him firmly in this tier.

TIER THREE

9. WR Rueben Randle, Giants - Randle is a sneaky-good player whose lack of outstanding measurables likely hurt his draft stock. He doesn't have overwhelming strength or speed. In shorts and a t-shirt, he's just a normal guy by NFL standards, but when game time comes around he's a highly instinctive player who shows a diverse array of WR skills. Randle was voted a first team All-SEC selection last season after posting good receiving stats in a conservative offense with poor quarterbacks. He's tall, fluid, and quick with good hands. He's very, very smooth for a tall receiver. His speed is not elite, but he has shown the ability to beat corners downfield on many occasions. Overall, he's another player like Blackmon or Wright whose game is more than the sum of its parts. Randle actually compares pretty well with new teammate Hakeem Nicks. He's a low-risk player who looks destined for a long career in the NFL. The main risk is that his lack of elite traits relegates him to a complementary role. I'll take that chance at this stage of the draft, with all of the locks already off the board. He's only 20 years old, so he has a lot of time to mature physically and eventually stake his FF claim.

10. RB Lamar Miller, Dolphins - I had previously ranked Miller as the third best back in the draft, but he wouldn't have fallen all the way to the 4th round if NFL evaluators really felt that he was a borderline elite prospect. I have downgraded Miller, but I remain intrigued by his long-term upside. He's a productive back with decent size, good speed, and good quickness. People will question the short-term opportunity in Miami. However, Reggie Bush is starting to get old and Daniel Thomas was underwhelming as a rookie. Miller has a chance here. On the downside, he is a touch lighter than ideal and will probably never be a great power runner. I still like the risk/reward equation at this point of the rookie draft.

11. TE Coby Fleener, Colts - Fleener is a tall TE with very good vertical speed, range, and hands. He poses matchup problems due to his rare height/speed combination. Like the old cliche goes, he is too fast for most linebackers and too big for most defensive backs. I saw a lot of his games over the past few years and am reasonably high on his ability. However, I feel he has been slightly overrated due to the runaway success of TEs in the NFL last year. Fleener lacks the strength of guys like Gronkowski and Graham, and has only average agility for the position. Furthermore, he is light for his height and has struggled with numerous minor injuries. On talent alone, I think he compares pretty favorably to Todd Heap in his prime. However, expect Fleener to be somewhat inconsistent and to struggle with injuries. His main value is in leagues that give bonuses for TE receptions, and for teams who desperately need TE help. If I was already set at the position I might gamble on someone else here because TEs are not usually elite assets in FF and I don't think Fleener has the special something to reach the Gonzo-Graham range. I think he's more of a solid top 6-12 guy than a future superstar.

12. RB Bernard Pierce, Ravens - Pierce is a meat-and-potatoes runner who is unlikely to appeal to owners who are more impressed by flashy big play artists. His speed does not jump off the screen and most of his game highlights are comparatively unimpressive. He does not physically resemble Shonn Greene, but he reminds me of him in the sense that his best qualities are subtle. The more I watch him, the more I like his NFL potential. He was a massively productive college player who gradually added weight to his frame over the course of his amateur career. He's gotten all the way up to 220 pounds, with much of that weight concentrated in his lower body. Pierce is a smooth runner with a strong base and good vision and footwork. Not many 220 pound backs can make cuts like this. I think he represents an excellent value in rookie drafts because his landing spot has scared people away. If you have the patience and the roster room to take a gamble on him, I'd give it a shot in this range. Pierce is a bit one-dimensional (he's not a great receiver) and he'll probably never become a superstar, but he's a solid player with starter ability. Getting that in the 20-30 range of a rookie draft (where he has often been falling) is great value.

13. WR Brian Quick, Rams - I am not as high on Quick as some people are, but I think he has an edge over some of the alternatives in this range. He's not the workout warrior that Stephen Hill, but he's smoother and more agile on the football field. He moves better than Alshon Jeffery and is a lot bigger with a higher ceiling than Ryan Broyles. His workout numbers are pretty underwhelming and he doesn't really wow me in his highlights, but this approximately the point in the draft when the "probablies" become "maybes." Maybe Quick can become the true #1 WR Sam Bradford needs.

14. WR AJ Jenkins, 49ers - Jenkins has been on my radar for a while, but I was really surprised when San Francisco took him with the 30th pick in the draft. He always seemed like more of a 2nd-3rd round prospect. Now I've had to go back and reconsider his merits. There are definitely some intriguing qualities. Jenkins is very quick and fast. He is a smooth runner who had some monster games in college. He shows some potential as a deep threat and is also quick/fast/smooth enough to separate on shorter routes. On the other hand, he looks rail thin despite his listed weight of 190 and could struggle in today's physical NFL. He profiles as more of a #2 WR who was drafted to fill an NFL need, and not necessarily because he has first round talent in a vacuum. Still, I have a lot of respect for SF's front office. They deserve some benefit of the doubt, which is why I rank Jenkins slightly higher than I normally would.

15. RB Robert Turbin, Seahawks - Turbin reminds me a bit of Marion Barber. He was selected in the same round, and has a similar build, playing style, and (for a while) haircut. Turbin is a power runner with serviceable quickness and speed. When I watch his highlights, he physically resembles an NFL back in terms of build and playing style. However, he is more top-heavy than the usual RB and especially lacks thickness in his calves and ankles (reminds me of Beanie Wells in this regard). I suspect that his durability problems might be related to this, as it's tough for a RB to endure under the heavy workload unless he's built like a rock. Turbin has only average quickness and is a bit stiff when it comes to making difficult cuts. Despite the flaws that I've discussed, I still think Turbin can be relevant in FF. He will probably not be a long-term solution for Seattle or for your FF team, but he has enough ability to thrive as a plug-and-play option for a few years before his body breaks down and his skills erode.

16. RB LaMichael James, 49ers - James is a well-known player whose strengths and weaknesses should be familiar to any casual college football fan. He's extremely explosive and fast, but lacks bulk and was the product of a friendly offensive system that highlighted his strengths and glossed over his weaknesses. I think he is probably too small to ever be anything beyond a change of pace back. The same is true for the likes of Hillman and Pead, who were drafted in roughly the same range. I prefer James because he's more explosive and dynamic. He will get a chance to deliver big plays for SF. The risk is pretty simple: he might be too small to ever be anything more than a 100-150 carry per season guy.

17. RB Ronnie Hillman, Broncos - Hillman is a productive player who has drawn comparisons to names like Marshall Faulk and LeSean McCoy for various reasons. I see some resemblance between Hillman and McCoy. Both are waterbug scatback types who lack conventional weight. However, McCoy is built stronger than Hillman and is generally more impressive. Hillman strikes me as a poor man's McCoy. He's elusive, but not really in a "wow" sort of way. I like the opportunity for him in Denver because there is no clear young starter on the roster, but I am pretty lukewarm on his skill set. He's definitely one of the guys on this list who could obliterate my ranking and make me look silly, but I'm not personally that impressed with what he offers and I'm inclined to let other people roll the dice on this player.

18. QB Ryan Tannehill, Dolphins - I don't spend a lot of time watching QBs and I don't think you can glean much from highlights, so I'd be lying if I said I have a great read on Tannehill. However, the tea leaves aren't encouraging. He strikes me as the typical "looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane" type of QB prospect who is overrated because he resembles a franchise QB in shorts and a t-shirt. Tannehill's stats were not putrid in college (he's not Charlie Whitehurst), but they sure weren't great either. It's always a concern for me when a player who is touted as a top 10 NFL draft pick fails to distinguish himself against college competition. Tannehill was a mediocre performer and especially struggled against quality opposition, generally failing to deliver against good teams. I've read a lot about his "upside" and his "potential," but I'm not going to be the guy who takes a chance on him unless he falls to this range of my drafts. The one major plus apart from his draft position and physical skill set is the fact that Miami spent a high pick on him. After investing this heavily, they will undoubtedly give him a chance to succeed, but isn't that what people said about Blaine Gabbert and Kyle Boller?

19. WR Stephen Hill, Jets - This rating might be a bit harsh. Hill is intriguing, but I think he has been overrated in FF circles on the basis of his workout numbers. If sheer height and explosiveness were sufficient for NFL stardom then Jerome Simpson would be in the Pro Bowl every year, but there's a lot more to football than running in a straight line and jumping. Hill profiles as a potentially elite deep threat due to his rare combination of height, range, and straight line speed. On the other hand, he looks stiff and awkward when it comes to lateral movement. People compare him to the other Georgia Tech receivers of recent years, but Calvin was in another class and Demaryius Thomas is far more agile and fluid. Hill reminds me more of Roy Williams, another tall receiver whose on-paper measurables only occasionally translated to effective football. For that matter, Williams was more polished, well-rounded, and impressive entering the league, even if that seems hard to believe now. I acknowledge that Hill's raw gifts are compelling, but I don't have as much faith in his football talent as others do and will not be getting him in any of my drafts because he's always gone 5-10 picks before where I'd take him. Nevermind the fact that New York is an organization on the decline who reeks of desperation. Sanchez has not improved, Tebow is a joke, and their offense is conservative anyway. I'm not one to draft based on situation, but it's another negative against Hill for me.

20. WR Alshon Jeffery, Bears - The common thread among the WRs in this tier is that with most of them, there is at least one glaring flaw that you can point to with concern. Jeffery is no different. His production was excellent, especially during the 2010 season. He was an impact player and logged some big performances against talented cornerbacks. Jeffery is a big target with good playing strength who shows a lot of natural WR talent in terms of body control and hands. However, there is no getting around the fact that he is sub-par in terms of mobility. He had a good pro day workout, but on game day he looks a bit sluggish and plodding. I think he will have a lot of trouble separating from NFL corners. There are also some issues with his maturity, work ethic, and weight. He allegedly played at 230 pounds last season and may struggle to control his weight at the next level. Overall, I really like a lot of what he does on the football field, but I think there are some real questions about how it will translate to a higher level of competition.

21. RB Isaiah Pead, Rams - A lot of teams spent high picks on small backs this year. Like Hillman and James, Pead lacks the bulk of a conventional featured back. He has good quickness and has been a productive player for Cincinnati, but it's hard to imagine him as a full-time starter in the NFL and I don't think he can match the explosiveness of a comparable back like Reggie Bush or Darren Sproles. I think Pead will be a third-down specialist and change-of-pace back whose lack of elite ability in any given category will prevent him achieving significant NFL success. I think he was a reach by 2-3 rounds and I won't be taking him at his ADP in rookie drafts. Having said all that, the opportunity in St. Louis is compelling and he may have some value solely because of that.

TIER FOUR

22. QB Brandon Weeden, Browns - I think QB is the most important position in the NFL by a wide margin, but Cleveland's pick of Weeden at 22 overall reeks of desperation. Colt McCoy is not the answer, so the Browns will take a shot on the 28 year old former baseball player. Some onlookers have argued that Weeden is the best pure pocket passer in the draft when given adequate time. That might be the case, but he was literally a man amongst boys as a fully-developed 27-28 year old competing against kids. Oklahoma State's explosive offense and the presence of Justin Blackmon also probably played a role in inflated Weeden's apparent value. I have some reservations about this player and am not very excited about his FF prospects, but if an NFL team liked him enough to spend a first round pick on him then I have to consider the possibility that he can be successful. Weeden will almost certainly be handed the reins to this offense next season. I don't expect him to be very effective given the complete and utter lack of receiving talent on the roster, but he could have immediate value as a backup and he's still young enough to contribute for several years in the unlikely event that he ends up becoming a great pro.

23. WR Mohamed Sanu, Bengals - It might be a bit unfair to slot Sanu in a separate tier from players like Jeffery and Randle, but there does seem to be a bit of a gap. Sanu is slower than Jeffery, but probably the better and more mobile overall athlete. He was an impact player for Rutgers. He has good size, toughness, hands, and somewhat decent YAC skills. However, he has no downfield ability whatsoever and is merely a short-mid range possession WR who will help take pressure off AJ Green and the more dynamic components of Cincy's attack. In an absolute best case scenario, he could become the TJ Houshmandzadeh to Green's Ochocinco, but a more likely scenario is a low ceiling of 50 catches/800 yards that prevents Sanu from becoming a relevant FF contributor in most leagues. Still, I like what he did in college and I think he has clear starter potential. I would feel good about taking a cheap gamble on him here.

24. WR Chris Givens, Rams - It's not uncommon to see a team spend two early picks on receivers only to watch the second of the two become the better pro. We've seen that in recent years with Bryant Johnson/Anquan Boldin, Brian Robiskie/Mohamed Massaquoi, Juaquin Iglesias/Johnny Knox, and Arrelious Benn/Mike Williams. Brian Quick/Chris Givens isn't quite one of those situations, but it does have a bit of that feel to it. Whereas Quick is a big target whose height and range dictated his draft position, Givens is a smaller player with better speed and quickness. This late in the draft, I am just looking for someone with the upside to develop into something more than a backup. While Givens is undersized with questionable hands and toughness, he has the athletic ability of a starting NFL WR and goes to a team with an acute need for playmakers.

:goodposting: Wow, first time i took the time to look through this today... great Job EBF
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This is my argument with the Wright>>(14 spots)>>Jeffery/Hill. I don't get it and you've failed to list anything besides not being smooth/explosive on tape...but will discount any of the offseason(combine/pro day) results that prove they're more equal.

None of this says much about how they function on a football field, which is the most important consideration.

It's not hard to justify ranking Wright well above Jeffery. For one thing, he went a lot higher in the NFL draft. Some teams make bad picks, but in general draft position is one of the best indicators of future value. So that right there is a big feather in Wright's cap. And then there's the eyeball test. Jeffery is a big play receiver who lacks speed and relies on his size, strength, and hands. Wright is a big play receiver who can run by coverage and take short throws a long distance. This is not something that is obvious in the numbers, but it's obvious in seeing them play and reading scouting reports about these players.

You can't have everything both ways:

If it's where they were drafted

-Then how do you have Bernard Pierce/Robert Turbin 3rd/4th round picks ahead of high second round picks Jeffery/Hill??

If how they function on the field is the most important factor

-Then why isn't YPC the most telling? Wrights a big play guy...yet Alshon isn't and his YPR is better by 3 yards.

Pro Days aren't everything I agree, but they do have some sort of use or else why are they even in place. I broke down every physical trait I could that was measured...Wright won in 40 yard dash by a little, 1.5 inches in vertical and in short shuttle. Jeffery is a much taller WR(with a smaller BMI), longer arms, bigger hands, better hands, better broad jump, better 3 cone drill, better YPR, played in a tougher conference with a worse QB and little WR support around himself.

Yet you still justify 14 spots by what you see. Well what did you see?

No one variable dominates. When I'm ranking these guys, I look at the draft position, the workouts, the statistics, the scouting reports, and then I watch whatever clips I can find. There is no hypocrisy in saying that draft position is an important consideration while also saying that it's not the ONLY consideration. The same goes for all of the other variables.

This is a thread where people offer opinions about players. No one is forcing you to agree. If you think Jeffery is equal in value to Wright then by all means act accordingly. The beauty of FF is that you get to put your money where your mouth is and see what happens. You asked my opinion. I provided it. And yet you're still arguing. I'm not sure what kind of resolution you're seeking.

Wright looks better to me than Jeffery. I don't need to say anything beyond that. Are there other variables? Sure, but that it is the gist of it for me.

If you can't justify your opinion more than...well it's my opinion...then it isn't worth much. Given your record in the FF leagues i've played with you it seems consistent.
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