karmarooster
Footballguy
The upside down draft, as popularized on FBGs by Matt Waldman (but by no means strictly attributed to him), encourages drafters to eschew early selections of RBs after the first few studs are off the board. Instead, the strategy advocates targeting 3 top WRs, then getting a solid QB and a top TE (this used to be possible in the 5th... that was Gates/Witten territory), thus WR-WR-WR, QB, TE, and then pile on a bunch of lottery ticket RBs in the mid rounds hoping that some Benjarvis Green-Ellis or Cedric Benson or Fred Jackson type will pan out into a reliable, if not stud, RB and walk you straight to the championship.
In light of:(1) the changing NFL, (2) the scarcity of decent RBs, and (3) the abundance of Quality WRs, I thought it time to revise this strategy.
As a preliminary note, IMO there are ONLY the following non-QB studs in this year's draft: 3 RBs - Foster/McCoy/Rice, 1 WR - CJ, and 2 TEs - G&G. Outside of that, to me there isn't a whole lot of difference between, say, Forte & Lynch vs. Stewart, Redman, and McGahee several rounds later. I just don't see the value in RBs ranked 4 through about 15. Similarly, After Calvin, there are several qualty WRs (although none at his level), but they extend very deep. What's the difference between Andre or Julio (both borderline top 5), or way down the list the upside of someone like Percy Harvin, Jeremy Maclin, or Stevie Johnson?
For these reasons, I don't think it's necessary to go WR-WR-WR, because there are so many quality WRs available in the 4th through 7th round.
Illustrations: Assuming you DON'T have a top 4 pick, i.e. you can't get Foster/McCoy/Rice/Calvin, this is my proposed upside down draft:
[*]This strategy is principled on getting one of (IMO) the five stud QBs and one of the two stud TEs.
[*]Ideally you take either Rodgers or Brady in the first round, and as it snakes back to you in the second, either Gronk or Graham if they remain on the board.
[*]As an alternative, if you have a top 4 pick, you would simply take the RB/WR stud, and then aim for one of Gronk or Graham if available in the 2nd, and then one of the other top QBs (Brees/Cam/Stafford) in the 3rd.
[*]After round two, you look look for quality at WR, and quantity at RB.
[*]Here are two mocks from Mid-first (#5/12) and Late-first (#11/12)
[*]Team 1: Rodgers, Gronk, Doug Martin, Dem.Thomas, Harvin, B.Lloyd, J.Stew, Denarius Moore, Jaquiz Rodgers, Greg Little, Shane Vereen.
[*]Team 2: Brady, Gronk, Redman, Dez, Dem.Thomas, Jahvid Best, M.Bush, Ingram, Titus Young, DHB, Little, Vareen.
With this strategy, I'd say it's fairly easy to pile on a ton of quality WRs in the mid rounds and add a few late round upside guys like Denarius, Titus, and Little, but it's much harder to grab decent RBs. There just aren't that many. As a result, adding RBs during the season via waivers and trades is crucial, but it's also probably the easiest position to do so as guys go down and new RBs emerge.
Another advantage is that you can just keep the best available RBs and WRs from rounds 3 all the way past the 10th, at which point you'll need to look for a very cheap backup QB (Freeman, Palmer, Flacco, Locker, etc.) and a cheap TE if you carry one (Greshem, cook, Tamme, Rudolph).
As a result, with either of these teams, you end up with
QB: Rodgers/Brady
RB: 5-6 lotto tickets
WR: 6 'value' studs, IMO guys like Harvin, Britt, DT, Austin, Maclin, Smith, Colston, Stevie, Desean, A.Brown, Decker, and Lloyd, plus high upside guys like Greg Little and Denarius Moore who are around a bit later.
TE: Gronk or Graham.
OR if you have a top 4 pick:
QB: Stafford/Cam
RB: Rice, plus 4-5 lotto tickets
WR: 6 value studs as mentioned above
TE: Hopefully Gronk or Graham, but it's less likely that one of them makes it back to the end of the 2nd round.
Lotto ticket RBs include: Martin, Bradshaw, Beanie, BJGE, Best, Stewart, Ingram, Redman, McGahee, D.Brown, Ridley, Hunter, Rodgers, Vereen. I particularly like Redman, McGahee, and Brown because all three figure to be solid starters and not as much committee backs.
In light of:(1) the changing NFL, (2) the scarcity of decent RBs, and (3) the abundance of Quality WRs, I thought it time to revise this strategy.
As a preliminary note, IMO there are ONLY the following non-QB studs in this year's draft: 3 RBs - Foster/McCoy/Rice, 1 WR - CJ, and 2 TEs - G&G. Outside of that, to me there isn't a whole lot of difference between, say, Forte & Lynch vs. Stewart, Redman, and McGahee several rounds later. I just don't see the value in RBs ranked 4 through about 15. Similarly, After Calvin, there are several qualty WRs (although none at his level), but they extend very deep. What's the difference between Andre or Julio (both borderline top 5), or way down the list the upside of someone like Percy Harvin, Jeremy Maclin, or Stevie Johnson?
For these reasons, I don't think it's necessary to go WR-WR-WR, because there are so many quality WRs available in the 4th through 7th round.
Illustrations: Assuming you DON'T have a top 4 pick, i.e. you can't get Foster/McCoy/Rice/Calvin, this is my proposed upside down draft:
[*]This strategy is principled on getting one of (IMO) the five stud QBs and one of the two stud TEs.
[*]Ideally you take either Rodgers or Brady in the first round, and as it snakes back to you in the second, either Gronk or Graham if they remain on the board.
[*]As an alternative, if you have a top 4 pick, you would simply take the RB/WR stud, and then aim for one of Gronk or Graham if available in the 2nd, and then one of the other top QBs (Brees/Cam/Stafford) in the 3rd.
[*]After round two, you look look for quality at WR, and quantity at RB.
[*]Here are two mocks from Mid-first (#5/12) and Late-first (#11/12)
[*]Team 1: Rodgers, Gronk, Doug Martin, Dem.Thomas, Harvin, B.Lloyd, J.Stew, Denarius Moore, Jaquiz Rodgers, Greg Little, Shane Vereen.
[*]Team 2: Brady, Gronk, Redman, Dez, Dem.Thomas, Jahvid Best, M.Bush, Ingram, Titus Young, DHB, Little, Vareen.
With this strategy, I'd say it's fairly easy to pile on a ton of quality WRs in the mid rounds and add a few late round upside guys like Denarius, Titus, and Little, but it's much harder to grab decent RBs. There just aren't that many. As a result, adding RBs during the season via waivers and trades is crucial, but it's also probably the easiest position to do so as guys go down and new RBs emerge.
Another advantage is that you can just keep the best available RBs and WRs from rounds 3 all the way past the 10th, at which point you'll need to look for a very cheap backup QB (Freeman, Palmer, Flacco, Locker, etc.) and a cheap TE if you carry one (Greshem, cook, Tamme, Rudolph).
As a result, with either of these teams, you end up with
QB: Rodgers/Brady
RB: 5-6 lotto tickets
WR: 6 'value' studs, IMO guys like Harvin, Britt, DT, Austin, Maclin, Smith, Colston, Stevie, Desean, A.Brown, Decker, and Lloyd, plus high upside guys like Greg Little and Denarius Moore who are around a bit later.
TE: Gronk or Graham.
OR if you have a top 4 pick:
QB: Stafford/Cam
RB: Rice, plus 4-5 lotto tickets
WR: 6 value studs as mentioned above
TE: Hopefully Gronk or Graham, but it's less likely that one of them makes it back to the end of the 2nd round.
Lotto ticket RBs include: Martin, Bradshaw, Beanie, BJGE, Best, Stewart, Ingram, Redman, McGahee, D.Brown, Ridley, Hunter, Rodgers, Vereen. I particularly like Redman, McGahee, and Brown because all three figure to be solid starters and not as much committee backs.
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