fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
What were the lows from August?
I think the S&P is now below IIRC, 1867?
DJIA was like 15600? Nasdaq?
I think the S&P is now below IIRC, 1867?
DJIA was like 15600? Nasdaq?
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Stock Thread (31 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Love to get a Siff update on charts/supports/etc... Months back he mentioned that he felt we were in a very early bear market IIRC, love to get an update on what he is seeing.
lod01
Footballguy
S&P ~ 1867
NAZ ~ 4500
DOW ~ 15600
Russell 2k in full bear market, Japan in bear market. The question is, do they all eventually enter bear market.
lod01
Footballguy
I've posted this S&P max chart before. Some guest chart guy on CNBC was dissecting it with lines and came to the conclusion that S&P bottoming at 1500 is not out of the question if we break thru like 1750 I think he said. That puts it at the 2000 & 2007 high. The chart itself looks like this run was ridiculously unsustainable.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I enjoy hearing all of the hedge fund managers and talking heads on CNBC talking about the rate hike being a mistake, more QE, etc...
Seriously, they can all go #### themselves... First off, .25%, cmon that doesn't do much, and if it does, then the QE and ZIRP have been a huge failure. Second, sorry you want some more free money from the government, play the game with the deck slightly less stacked in your favor. These people are such greedy worthless morons.
Seriously, they can all go #### themselves... First off, .25%, cmon that doesn't do much, and if it does, then the QE and ZIRP have been a huge failure. Second, sorry you want some more free money from the government, play the game with the deck slightly less stacked in your favor. These people are such greedy worthless morons.
lod01
Footballguy
Pretty much spot on analysis:
If this is a bear market, how will investors react in the months ahead?
There are four psychological stages that people go through during a bear market. Right now, investors know the market is struggling but most believe it will come back. In fact, many see this as a buying opportunity. Here are the four stages:
Stage 1: Denial
Right now, we’re in the denial stage. Anyone who is bullish is too stubborn to change his or her view. Many people have their head in the sand, and some may not even look at their January statements. Many believe the market will come back. Right now, many are still buying the dips, which does not work in a bear market. This is similar to what has happened to oil.
Stage 2: High Anxiety
In this stage, many investors are like a deer in the headlights. They are frozen and nervous but don’t do anything. They are told by brokers and financial experts to stay calm and don’t panic. We haven’t reached this stage yet.
Stage 3: Fear
In this stage, the rampant bulls finally realize they are in trouble. If they have bought stocks on margin, they might be getting calls from their broker to add money to losing positions. In this stage, they are watching in fear as their portfolio burns. They reluctantly start to take action as fear increases. Often they say to themselves, “When my stock gets back to even, I will sell.”
Stage 4: Panic
This is what I call the “uncle” stage. This is when panicked investors throw in the towel and take action. They want to get out of the market while they still have something left. At this stage, there is huge downside volume and double-digit declines on the indexes. At the end of Stage 4, many people vow to never buy stocks again. We are not even close to this stage yet. Typically, we hit bottom when investors capitulate after losses of 20% to 50% in their stock portfolios.
We are only in stage 2 I think. I hope I can hold out in bonds/money market until stage 4 'hatred of the stock market' before I switch back to stocks.
If this is a bear market, how will investors react in the months ahead?
There are four psychological stages that people go through during a bear market. Right now, investors know the market is struggling but most believe it will come back. In fact, many see this as a buying opportunity. Here are the four stages:
Stage 1: Denial
Right now, we’re in the denial stage. Anyone who is bullish is too stubborn to change his or her view. Many people have their head in the sand, and some may not even look at their January statements. Many believe the market will come back. Right now, many are still buying the dips, which does not work in a bear market. This is similar to what has happened to oil.
Stage 2: High Anxiety
In this stage, many investors are like a deer in the headlights. They are frozen and nervous but don’t do anything. They are told by brokers and financial experts to stay calm and don’t panic. We haven’t reached this stage yet.
Stage 3: Fear
In this stage, the rampant bulls finally realize they are in trouble. If they have bought stocks on margin, they might be getting calls from their broker to add money to losing positions. In this stage, they are watching in fear as their portfolio burns. They reluctantly start to take action as fear increases. Often they say to themselves, “When my stock gets back to even, I will sell.”
Stage 4: Panic
This is what I call the “uncle” stage. This is when panicked investors throw in the towel and take action. They want to get out of the market while they still have something left. At this stage, there is huge downside volume and double-digit declines on the indexes. At the end of Stage 4, many people vow to never buy stocks again. We are not even close to this stage yet. Typically, we hit bottom when investors capitulate after losses of 20% to 50% in their stock portfolios.
We are only in stage 2 I think. I hope I can hold out in bonds/money market until stage 4 'hatred of the stock market' before I switch back to stocks.
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lod01
Footballguy
Grace Under Pressure
Footballguy
So patience be damned for 401K investors with heavy equity stakes, convert to cash? What's the call for the retirement investor?
Politician Spock
Footballguy
Perhaps "failure" isn't the correct term. Let's just say they didn't produce the result they were intended to produce. Nothing has been fixed from 2008. It all just got pushed to the future. Welcome to the future.
skycriesmary
Climbing up the Walls
At the risk of getting yelled at by the 'don't time the market' crowd, I'm thinking about going 95% cash, and absorbing my losses from stocks bought in the last couple of weeks (F, FB, PYPL), and eating a major bullet with losses of about 60% (BTE), luckily a smaller position.
I just don't see this market turning around enough this year, and why not buy when they are another 10-20% cheaper?
I just don't see this market turning around enough this year, and why not buy when they are another 10-20% cheaper?
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Could we be seeing a "valuation bubble"?
SO many companies are valued at such enormous valuations, maybe we're at a time when these valuations will be coming back to reality?
SO many companies are valued at such enormous valuations, maybe we're at a time when these valuations will be coming back to reality?
lod01
Footballguy
I converted to cash on the 30th, dipped my toes in twice (losing 1-3% each time) and got burned. Ran screaming each time. Now 70% bonds and 30% cash. Jesus, If I had gone to my long term treasury on the 30th instead, I'd be up 5% so far this year. Instead, I'm down ~5%.
lod01
Footballguy
Ignore them. You can't time the bottom but you don't have to. Think of it this way. If you ride it down, you lose every day. If you step out even for a day or 2, you don't lose those days (so you have more $ than the buy & hold gang). Your issue is if you happen to sell at the bottom or get greedy and think it's going lower and it snaps back while you are standing on the sidelines.
If I could offer you a 1% savings on your $, you would take it. How about 2-3%. That is what it is like if you go to cash for 1 day. The idea is not to get greedy AND still be long term with a modified buy and hold. That is what I do. So far I have saved ~ 5% this year.
skycriesmary
Climbing up the Walls
Yeah, I hear you. I need to check out what bonds are offered through my IRA. Crazy eating 10% of a stock like F in two weeks. :X
Meatwad Reloaded
Footballguy
lod01
Footballguy
My dad called Sunday. Said the same thing. He predicted 11500 actually. I said DOW 13500.
The only bullet the fed has is 'we are not going to raise rates'. The problem is that bullet will be a dud so I doubt they even mention it until an actual fed meeting. They can't stop this slaughter. Good news gets met with selling. See NFLX. Bad news gets a stock destroyed.
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fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Everyone throws out numbers and predictions...
My question remains, why? I personally think the market has been overinflated by QE and ZIRP, a slowing global economy, and unrealistic valuations. I don't think this is the end, nor do I think we see anything close to 2009 lows, but def nothing screaming buy right now.
My question remains, why? I personally think the market has been overinflated by QE and ZIRP, a slowing global economy, and unrealistic valuations. I don't think this is the end, nor do I think we see anything close to 2009 lows, but def nothing screaming buy right now.
skycriesmary
Climbing up the Walls
Question is, how cute do you get with your timing? Hard to get out on a day where the market drops 500 points. You want to wait for a bear rally of 200-300, then get out. That is ####### market timing, though, to a tee. 
lod01
Footballguy
Read an article today. In a true bear market, rallies only last one day, not sustained for 2-3+ days. So far there have been 2 since 1-1-16 - Jan. 11th and 13th.Question is, how cute do you get with your timing? Hard to get out on a day where the market drops 500 points. You want to wait for a bear rally of 200-300, then get out. That is ####### market timing, though, to a tee.
I try not to get cute and A. watch the ^VIX and B. Tell myself that even if it goes down after I buy, I am beating every buy and hold guy.
mquinnjr
Footballguy
Down to ~$94 and P/E around 10 and change. Putting some serious consideration into putting my entire 2016 Roth IRA contribution on AAPL at these prices, and I am an uber-conservative index only investor.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
P/E is still around 18, something else to keep an eye on.
lod01
Footballguy
I know fc42 doesn't like MarketWatch but I read this Avi Gilbert's column about Elliott Waves.
As I said last week and all throughout this past week, until the market is able to move through 1952SPX impulsively, the pressure will remain to the downside. The potential path may still call for this being a (i)(ii) in an extended 5th wave down, which can still take us down to the 1750SPX lower end of our target zone on the 60-minute chart (linked below), or this bottom may even have been an expanded b-wave to wave 4. So, ultimately, as long as the market remains below 1952SPX, caution must still be maintained.
A breakdown very early in the coming week below the 1835SPX region would suggest this 5th wave down is going to extend down to the 1730-1750SPX region, as shown in the setup on the five-minute chart . Right now, this is the most bearish case I am seeing on the chart. The alternative potential is that we see a strong rise back toward the 1913-1935SPX region for a c-wave of wave 4, which would still provide us with another drop to a lower low.
As I said last week and all throughout this past week, until the market is able to move through 1952SPX impulsively, the pressure will remain to the downside. The potential path may still call for this being a (i)(ii) in an extended 5th wave down, which can still take us down to the 1750SPX lower end of our target zone on the 60-minute chart (linked below), or this bottom may even have been an expanded b-wave to wave 4. So, ultimately, as long as the market remains below 1952SPX, caution must still be maintained.
A breakdown very early in the coming week below the 1835SPX region would suggest this 5th wave down is going to extend down to the 1730-1750SPX region, as shown in the setup on the five-minute chart . Right now, this is the most bearish case I am seeing on the chart. The alternative potential is that we see a strong rise back toward the 1913-1935SPX region for a c-wave of wave 4, which would still provide us with another drop to a lower low.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Mark Hulbert might be the worst journalist ever. He must have some serious dirt on the CEO over there to still have a job.
I actually love reading the comments on MW, some hilarious stuff in there.
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Capella
Footballguy
I have a tsp account (govt employee) - I have most of my shares in C, S and I but can move them to a G fund and essentially pull them out of the market and keep the present rate. I'm like 23 years from retirement so no rush, but would you consider this short-term?
(I'm a novice)
(I'm a novice)
John Bender
Footballguy
Well I'd advise against putting the ENTIRE thing on it, but I just really want to bite the Apple at these prices. I've sent quite a bit into my trade account this past week and I'm now balls deep
TripItUp
Footballguy
agreed, not to mention housing prices have been at at unsustainable levels due to QE.
I don't think we see a real stabilization until housing prices normalize in major markets.
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cosjobs
Footballguy
skycriesmary
Climbing up the Walls
Sold about half my positions. That was a tasty #### sandwich. On the upside, maybe I'll be a bit more productive, not obsessing over stock prices.
Meatwad Reloaded
Footballguy
The market is a function of the society at large. I don't trust that our leaders are going to be able to handle the incredible pace of geo-political change that is occurring. Also, historically when the wealth gap between the rich and the poor gets too heavy, the system collapses. The wealth gap right now is getting way out of hand. I don't know, but I am seeing something way worse in the next couple years than we have seen in this lifetime.
cosjobs
Footballguy
Capella
Footballguy
Don't Noonan
Footballguy
That is a great question. Most people that sell out never get back in
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
lod01
Footballguy
I advise against it as well. look at IBM now, remember Enron, etc. If something bad happens, you are finished. All eggs in one basket is a HUGE mistake. Thy aren't going away but nothing says they can't stagnate for years like Walmart did for over a decade. How about, oops....accounting irregularity.
TripItUp
Footballguy
The vast majority of my 401K has been in bonds for the last two months...thinking about getting back into stocks here soon.
I think we've seen most of the losses here. Aside from oil supply, there isn't any systemic risk to support great recession type losses.
I say we bottom at 12-14K range at the worst and the upside is greater than the downside at this point.(1 year horizon)
I think we've seen most of the losses here. Aside from oil supply, there isn't any systemic risk to support great recession type losses.
I say we bottom at 12-14K range at the worst and the upside is greater than the downside at this point.(1 year horizon)
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cosjobs
Footballguy
They had similar numbers last week and have sold off. Word is phone sales for the quarter will be down significantly.
Everybody is skittish as hell now and seemingly everybody owns some apple. I'm looking to see 85-90
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I hear you, but from a pure numbers standpoint, I think they have to be the most solid company on the books. If the market as a whole tanks (everyone sinks), I'd personally look for some of these unicorn valuations to short as opposed to a rock solid Apple. Tesla and Netflix come to mind. Not being combative, and I'm far from an Apple fanboy, but this company won't feel the same sting as the high-flyers IMO... They'll also rebound nicely if they do sink.They had similar numbers last week and have sold off. Word is phone sales for the quarter will be down significantly.
Everybody is skittish as hell now and seemingly everybody owns some apple. I'm looking to see 85-90
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
John Bender
Footballguy
I tailed with 250 shares.
You're on fire this week cos - already a days work of day trading in 20 minutes made profitable.
cosjobs
Footballguy
I deliberated this side, as well. Actually I think PPL is a bit more solid and utilities are much more stable than phone sales. But I sold that off, too. Just seems like its not yet the time to buy anything right now for a portfolio. I'm basically daytrading now, trying to collect profit on the daily swings. Mostly buying bears, but this afternoon trying some FAS, since I think I can make a few hundred as financial bounce off their lows this afternoon.I hear you, but from a pure numbers standpoint, I think they have to be the most solid company on the books. If the market as a whole tanks (everyone sinks), I'd personally look for some of these unicorn valuations to short as opposed to a rock solid Apple. Tesla and Netflix come to mind. Not being combative, and I'm far from an Apple fanboy, but this company won't feel the same sting as the high-flyers IMO... They'll also rebound nicely if they do sink.They had similar numbers last week and have sold off. Word is phone sales for the quarter will be down significantly.
Everybody is skittish as hell now and seemingly everybody owns some apple. I'm looking to see 85-90
cosjobs
Footballguy
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I'm just sidelines... After years of trying and failing, I'm just not profitable daytrading. I'm looking for entry points for long buy and holds.I deliberated this side, as well. Actually I think PPL is a bit more solid and utilities are much more stable than phone sales. But I sold that off, too. Just seems like its not yet the time to buy anything right now for a portfolio. I'm basically daytrading now, trying to collect profit on the daily swings. Mostly buying bears, but this afternoon trying some FAS, since I think I can make a few hundred as financial bounce off their lows this afternoon.I hear you, but from a pure numbers standpoint, I think they have to be the most solid company on the books. If the market as a whole tanks (everyone sinks), I'd personally look for some of these unicorn valuations to short as opposed to a rock solid Apple. Tesla and Netflix come to mind. Not being combative, and I'm far from an Apple fanboy, but this company won't feel the same sting as the high-flyers IMO... They'll also rebound nicely if they do sink.They had similar numbers last week and have sold off. Word is phone sales for the quarter will be down significantly.
Everybody is skittish as hell now and seemingly everybody owns some apple. I'm looking to see 85-90
cosjobs
Footballguy
All of my retirement accounts, except for about a 5% holding in RAI. Will probably buy them some GDX, but stay 90% cash in my retirement for now.I'm just sidelines... After years of trying and failing, I'm just not profitable daytrading. I'm looking for entry points for long buy and holds.I deliberated this side, as well. Actually I think PPL is a bit more solid and utilities are much more stable than phone sales. But I sold that off, too. Just seems like its not yet the time to buy anything right now for a portfolio. I'm basically daytrading now, trying to collect profit on the daily swings. Mostly buying bears, but this afternoon trying some FAS, since I think I can make a few hundred as financial bounce off their lows this afternoon.I hear you, but from a pure numbers standpoint, I think they have to be the most solid company on the books. If the market as a whole tanks (everyone sinks), I'd personally look for some of these unicorn valuations to short as opposed to a rock solid Apple. Tesla and Netflix come to mind. Not being combative, and I'm far from an Apple fanboy, but this company won't feel the same sting as the high-flyers IMO... They'll also rebound nicely if they do sink.They had similar numbers last week and have sold off. Word is phone sales for the quarter will be down significantly.
Everybody is skittish as hell now and seemingly everybody owns some apple. I'm looking to see 85-90
Most all my trades posted here are from my non-retirement investment account- down 8% since last summer. Has been anywhere from down 30% to up 30% in that period.
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