Crazy right? At some point it will end. Oil will stabilize and so will the market.
Crazy start to the year though.
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Stock Thread (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
Crazy start to the year though.
Binky The Doormat
Footballguy
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cosjobs
Footballguy
Oh you don't think? How about it did and also the dollar today.
Market has been moving lock step with oil for 7 months and counting.
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Sand
Footballguy
I know it didn't, since the market was down more than 1% earlier when oil was up 7%- did people just not realize oil was higher until ~2 p.m.?
Oil is down ~40% over the last 7 months while the S&P is down ~8%. They have been correlated, but no where near lockstep and correlation<>causation.
Mario Kart
Footballguy
Taylor Swift and GLU, maybe a short term gamble for some of you.
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/gluu?mod=MW_story_hoverquote
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/gluu?mod=MW_story_hoverquote
The industrial sector, materials sector, minors sector, energy sectors and transportation sectors have been slaughtered. Bio Pharma has sold off briskly and now many large tech names have had it handed to them as well. At one point last year Walmart....freaking Walmart was down 30 plus percent.humpback said:
Look under the hood and stop looking at just an index. There is a lot more destruction in the market and Oil is major culprit. Not the only one but one of the biggest.
4 stocks accounted for most of the index's paltry gains last year.
I manage well over 2000MM in assets. I think I have a pulse on things.
sporthenry
Footballguy
You are starting to conflate things here. Part of the reason oil went down is b/c of China which is also part of the reason for some stocks selling off. So China would actually be the culprit, it just hits oil and stocks in the same way.
Now the correlation for the year has been high between oil and stocks (~0.9) but it isn't all just oil impacting stocks. While oil remains mostly a supply story, demand has started to creep into the price as well which has been reflected in global growth concerns and subsequently stocks
Now the rally today does lend credence that it is all about oil since oil rallied b/c of a weak $ due to US growth concerns. It'll be interesting if stocks give back some of their gains b/c of that.
dschuler
Footballguy
People keep saying the market has been doing so well over the last couple years but it seems like only for the biggest of corporations. A lot of the tech start ups or small or mid caps have been getting slaughtered from what I've seen. Then they slap an excuse like the dollar is strong so earnings are down and everyone just goes with it. Also I'm a rookie so I might not know what I'm talking about. But I would really appreciate oil to skyrocket and the dollar to continue to fall. I think?Oil, China, Global slowdown, election year
We can talk about a lot of headwinds every year.....every year.
But Oil and China are the largest culprits. And when oil rallies hard and stabilizes I think you will see the market do the same. The perception and short term phycology is if oil is dropping then demand is slowing then we are in a global slowdown. China is not the biggest reason oil is going down and that is being over stated. China's economy is still growing but at the pace we all saw the last 20 plus years. That was bound to happen at some point. But the china consumer is getting stronger and stronger. The industrial side is another story. But the market is over sold on China worries IMO. Clearly over sold now.
In the meantime demand is still there, but we have an over supply issue which is not a long term problem as the industry will re-balance. It will have pain in the process.
COP just cut their dividend 2/3 today. But this will not be long term. Once the price recovers to a 50-60 level they will raise it again. CVX, XOM are pretty safe with their dividends IMO. COP is far more into the drilling (upstream) side than the down stream which is CVX, XOM.
Anyway. I am just trying to point out the heavy volatility your seeing is being driven in large part to oil. China is a big deal too.
Again a short term and healthy correction IMO. I am getting more and more bullish on stocks for this year and next if this keeps up. And like I have always said....I am a long term bull. It's worked for me my entire investing life. I try not to time the market...but you have to determine when you buy stocks with new money. So there is always some sort of timing element involved. Hard to avoid. So I look at valuation's based on 3,5 and 10 year anticipated earnings appreciation and even more importantly to me personally, dividend growth.
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Do you ever stay on topic? WTH does Walmart being down 30% last year have to do with oil being the reason for the rally yesterday or it trading in lockstep with the market? Again, the market was down for most of the day yesterday at the same time as oil was up huge. On Monday, oil was down big and the market was flat. Right now, oil is up and the market (futures) are down. Over the 7 month period that you picked, oil is down ~5X as much as the market. On what planet is that lock-step?
Your MO seems to be throwing out generic platitudes like "we've seen this rodeo before, earnings are good, balance sheets are fantastic, oil and the market are in lockstep", etc. Then when I reply with actual evidence/data to the contrary, you yell squirrel! and start talking about something else entirely.
Again, if you have any actual data to support your opinions, I'd love to see and talk about it. I'm really not interested in this game of cat and mouse though.
Now down around $730. Maybe they should have had a bad report...No kidding. My biggest position and way up but may have to push all in should it keep going down.Went above $840 in the after hours when they announced, now down below $760. Sick.
Been on the train since $510-ish, looks like $815 in after-hours.
On the plus side, Bit Gold has been on a nice run.
Don't Noonan
Footballguy
If you can't see that the stock market has clearly been affected by oil then that is your problem. I happen to agree with Todem here. Just because oil is up 5% one day and the market is up 1% does not mean they aren't correlated.
The Big Guy
Fear the Blitz
NREC34
Footballguy
GILD up 1%
It will be OK.
@Humpback - we can end this now. Good luck to you and your investments. We have nothing to talk about anymore. My MO is I am a SR Portfolio Manager for a major US firm and manage over 200MM in assets (and growing). My clients have done nothing but have a solid positive return with me through 3 of the worst corrections in the their lifetimes. In fact they have a lot more money today than before 2008 despite the great recession. Believe it or don't believe it I really don't care.
I do this for a living. I am sharing real insight, life experience and advice here. What I am not going to do is debate the merits of this with anyone here. You either like my idea's, advice and approach or you don't. If your going to continue to attack me (which I am still trying to figure out) just stop already.
Go read your data and whatever information your gathering and continue to do whatever it is you do with your $$$.
My experience comes from actually investing since 1987. My results for my clients and the fact that my clients (as well as myself obviously) have survived quite nicely is what is important to me. This is despite all the doom, gloom and naysayers noise I have been hearing for 2 decades as well getting through 3 major corrections/downturns in the last 15 years. Not every year is going to be a positive year in the market. Not every stock I carefully select in my portfolio will be a winner. Not every mutual fund does great every year. No one ever bat's 1.000. But if can bat .650 - .700 I am doing a fantastic job. If you can asses a clients risk and do the right thing for them your doing your job. I am a risk manager. Asset allocation, goal planning and downside risk is where I put the most emphasis in the overall mix of ones portfolio. For my most aggressive equity investor I am never more than 10% in any one sector...15% is really pushing it and is for the most risk tolerant client. Risk averse clients? Equities are merely 30% max of their entire asset mix.
I clearly stated I was early on oil, but I have been in many of these names for a very long time (and realized profits several times before buying back again at lower prices). When I see sell off's I am just accumulating more shares at lower prices in good, sound companies. Most turn out to be winners,very few losers, some sideways for a while. But the bottom line (and that is what my clients look at) is a good positive return over the long term with almost half the volatility in the overall index on the downside (S&P 500) in a growth and income portfolio (which is the portfolio of choice for 80% of my practice). For new money I was 15% on average early in the energy portion of the overall portfolio, but the yield on the energy sleeve is north of 5% and most of the yield is pretty safe (only in majors and one world class MLP mid stream) and once oil turns (and it will no doubt it will) it will be a nice trade long term. I will even average down on the sleeve once I finally see stability in oil prices take hold.
That's the only data I need. What is my clients bottom line. What is my own personal bottom line.....and how do I do it which I explained a while ago (posting my stock portfolio built over the last 20 years) in several posts through out the last several pages and I am done explaining or trying to prove anything. The equity portfolio numbers are there in the very long winded post I had lol.
I am not trying to prove a thing in here. I am merely giving opinions based on 29 years of my own personal investment experience. You are hell bent on some kind of well "prove it" mission. Prove what? I make one call on oil and all of a sudden I know nothing....LOL. Ok man. Look you invest the way you want. You obviously know it all and don't need guidance and professional advice. Good for you. But a ton of people in this country have no clue how to invest for the long term, no idea how to create a legacy plan, no idea how to harvest their savings in a tax efficient manner for income in retirement, no idea how to do anything but actually make the money used to save. The average return for a retail self directed investor is less than 3% on an average annual return basis. They buy at the wrong time and sell at the wrong time. Hence why I have a career. I am not here to get into any pissing match with anyone in this thread. If your right and we are heading to another recession and a massive crash because of no QE and rising interest rates Great! Good for you. I will stick to what has always worked for me for 29 years. You do your thing. Bears are right...once or twice a decade from my experience. What happens when they are right?
I buy more, rebalance and profit.
And some are not going to agree with me. Fine. I really don't care. We are all sharing idea's and opinions. That's all. I think I will just stay out of the way going forward. It seems more like a day trading type of thread for the most part. Something I don't partake in at all. My opinions are strictly on investing for 3, 5,10 year and longer time periods. Not this year or next. Not getting wrapped up with all the noise 24/7 on CNBC. A great way to assure you lose your money is to watch that channel every day and make emotional decisions based on all the chaos they scream about every single trading day.
I hope I was able to add some value to others and some insight. That is my one and only intention by posting here. What I am not going to get caught up in (and shame on me for continuing to reply to it) is a pissing match. If you don't agree....fine.
Good luck Humpback. No need to reply to this post either.
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fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
LNKD, still seems overpriced.
oldmanhawkins
Footballguy
I'm hoping that doesn't spell doom and gloom for TWTR. I believe they announce next week.
DATA was crushed too, feels like an overreaction. It is really unbelievable what has happened to these growth stocks. They are dropping like flies.
NajehHejan
Footballguy
Any thoughts on DNKN? Been watching it for a week, thinking about an entry point, goes up every day. Good market day, bad market day, no matter. Recent sales and earnings were not that hot either. Trying to wrap my head around. Maybe folks think it's a good value play.
That's the danger with these companies- you're obviously not paying for their current earnings (mostly losses) or non-existent dividends, you're paying for huge growth in the future. When those projections get cut, they get crushed. It's very difficult to value these companies using traditional methods- tech is so dynamic.
heropretend
Footballguy
Pretty sound advice again, but I feel some of your posts seem like you are suggesting that everyone needs to go ALL IN on energy stocks. Sure you can average down and look good in 10 years, but you're managing millions.
Individual investors can't afford to average down stocks until they're long term investments without going significantly overweight. If the energy market goes lower or just stays low for longer than anyone anticipates than the guy with 10k in a rothira buys XOM and is just a few bad months before they sell XOM at a 30% haircut to buy up some USO cause they didn't like that the oil price increases didn't correlate with XOM share price. And then they find this thread.
Sand
Footballguy
Funny thing about TWTR I saw the other day. They have something like 500 years to fix themselves. Their money burn rate is obscenely low, about 10 million, on 2.5 billion sitting in the bank.
I realize that this has not much to do with their stock price, just thought it interesting.
SIDA!
Footballguy
Is it possible you have him confused with me, GB?
To my knowledge and understanding, Todem has been adamant about not going all in a few times recently. Here is one example.
I on the other hand have expressed that I am flirting with the idea of going all in on the oil complex as a buy and hold long term play.
Yeah I hear you. I need to in the future really be careful about that. The moves I make are for people with 1MM minimum. I never suggest individual stocks for anyone who has under 500K So that eliminates a lot of people.
I never would suggest everyone needs to go all in on anything though so my apologies if it seemed the way.
When I see people post "I have 10K or 25K"......mutual funds. Even clients that are introduced to me with 300-400K I put them is a well diversified mutual fund portfolio. Stocks are too volatile for most.
I have had several posters message me and tell me they had 25, 50, 100K and always pointed them to the low cost no load mutual fund route (if they are self directed). Never stocks.
So thank you for pointing that out.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
LNKD almost sliced in half. Other high growth companies getting crushed.
I'd love me some FB in the 90's.
I'd love me some FB in the 90's.
Card Trader
Footballguy
:X
lod01
Footballguy
Cramu actually has something right. It's a bear market and it's rotating thru every sector taking it's time destroying it. Small caps got their turn, of course, energy, as well. Biotech got a turn, financials and now big cap tech and more biotech.
FB at 50 looks good.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Could the LNKD thing be an aha moment? Everyone starts fleeing these extremely high valued companies?
I honestly hope so, I'll be all in on the googs and Facefriend if the industry can drag them down.
Amazon, WTMF?
I honestly hope so, I'll be all in on the googs and Facefriend if the industry can drag them down.
Amazon, WTMF?
John Bender
Footballguy
Anyone shuffling anything around today?
Oil not really getting killed like the banks...
SLB and XOM are close to holding even in comparison to the others.
Not a fun day.
Oil not really getting killed like the banks...
SLB and XOM are close to holding even in comparison to the others.
Not a fun day.
cosjobs
Footballguy
Made a few hundred on UVXY Friday and sold at end of day.
Back intoday at 49.29
Also added to RUSS at 36.50, and SMDD (3x inverse midcap) at 45.22
cosjobs
Footballguy
cosjobs
Footballguy
I hate Keurig.
Could not believe it doubled last Dec.
I just put 500 shares at $45 on Feb. 19 for $10 (worth $22,500 if it hits)
I tried to get 3000 shares, but it only partially filled and price went up from .02 to 1.61 mid-order.
It was as low as $40 in Dec.
Things are freaky/crazy
Could not believe it doubled last Dec.
I just put 500 shares at $45 on Feb. 19 for $10 (worth $22,500 if it hits)
I tried to get 3000 shares, but it only partially filled and price went up from .02 to 1.61 mid-order.
It was as low as $40 in Dec.
Things are freaky/crazy
Johnnymac
Footballguy
John Bender
Footballguy
Neat market.
John Bender
Footballguy
Amazon down to 475.
Thinking of making an entry unless someone wants to slap my hand.
Thinking of making an entry unless someone wants to slap my hand.
Rohn Jambo
Footballguy
What is the PE now?John Bender said:
