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Still no panic, just slow and steady selling. What's going to stop the bleeding?

Janet striking a pretty dovish tone tomorrow would be a step.

It should help short term, but will it really make any difference longer term? If the economy is so dependent on Fed intervention, it clearly isn't doing very well, but the market is priced as if it is. There has been a disconnect for quite a while.

Edited by humpback
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Still no panic, just slow and steady selling. What's going to stop the bleeding?

Janet striking a pretty dovish tone tomorrow would be a step.
It should help short term, but will it really make any difference longer term? If the economy is so dependent on Fed intervention, it clearly isn't doing very well, but the market is priced as if it is. There has been a disconnect for quite a while.
No question Fed policy has helped fuel the market the past several years. I'm of the opinion that the economy is holding its own right now. The majority of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings so far and earnings per share are on pace to fall 2%. However, excluding energy they would rise 4%. Oil is clearly a drag on earnings. Disappointing jobs number last week but wage growth accelerating. Unemployment rate under 5%, I understand this is very misleading due to the number of people who stopped looking for work. Corporate buybacks are very high to start the year which is a positive sign for stocks. The key is going to be what the Fed does this year. Short term I expect continued volatility but once this fear over oil and China subsides I suspect the matket trends higher.
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Still no panic, just slow and steady selling. What's going to stop the bleeding?

Janet striking a pretty dovish tone tomorrow would be a step.
It should help short term, but will it really make any difference longer term? If the economy is so dependent on Fed intervention, it clearly isn't doing very well, but the market is priced as if it is. There has been a disconnect for quite a while.
No question Fed policy has helped fuel the market the past several years. I'm of the opinion that the economy is holding its own right now. The majority of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings so far and earnings per share are on pace to fall 2%. However, excluding energy they would rise 4%. Oil is clearly a drag on earnings. Disappointing jobs number last week but wage growth accelerating. Unemployment rate under 5%, I understand this is very misleading due to the number of people who stopped looking for work. Corporate buybacks are very high to start the year which is a positive sign for stocks. The key is going to be what the Fed does this year. Short term I expect continued volatility but once this fear over oil and China subsides I suspect the matket trends higher.

Things would always look better if you remove the weak spots, but obviously you can't do that.

Looking at earnings per share is a bit misleading IMO- the reason those numbers don't look quite as bad is because of the share buybacks, which has masked the true picture. Earnings and sales overall have been poor. This will be the first time we've had 3 consecutive declining quarters for earnings and 4 consecutive declining quarters for revenues since the great recession, and both are projected to decline for the next 2 quarters as well. So far 4 times as many companies have issued downside guidance over upside guidance. Meanwhile, P/E ratios are still above 5 and 10 year averages.

Again, why is what the Fed does so important if the economy is holding it's own? I agree that the Fed is going to be important to the markets, but that's because the economy isn't on firm ground right now IMO.

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Just got a panic call from a whackado partner who thinks oil will go to $8 a barrel as people start dumping oil into the seas in protest. :loco::loco::loco:

Tanker companies will start buying oil on speculation. It will be one step closer to my dream of buying 20 tons of pork bellies and having them delivered to my house.

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Maybe the tide is starting to turn...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-09/the-20-billion-manager-who-won-after-the-crisis-is-buying-again

David Samra, awarded for his stock-picking during and after the 2008 financial crisis, says he’s buying again.

Samra, who oversees about $20 billion for Artisan Partners, says now’s the time for a steady hand and no emotion as concern intensifies about the slowdown in China and the sliding price of oil. The winner of Morningstar Inc. international stock manager rankings in 2008 and 2013 says he’s sticking to his investment approach: finding undervalued shares with strong balance sheets.

“We welcome these types of markets,” Samra said in a phone interview from San Francisco on Monday. “We weren’t happy to see the potential social and economic disruption that happened during the financial crisis. It causes a lot of human misery. You’re not existentially happy about what’s going on. On the other hand, that turned out to be a market opportunity.”

Global equities erased $7.7 trillion in value this year through Monday as routs in commodities and Shanghai shares spread, taking global banks as the latest victim. Worldwide stocks neared a bear market on Tuesday as the yen surged and corporate bond risk jumped. The $10.7 billion Artisan International Value Fund, the largest Samra oversees, lost 8.3 percent in 2016 and is still beating about three-quarters of its peers.

Markets had become “very greedy” over the past few years, according to Samra, which he says was time to take advantage and sell shares. In today’s conditions, it’s time to “aggressively buy,” he said. His main fund had 12.7 percent of its holdings in cash as of Jan. 31.

UBS Bet

In UBS Group AG, which has plummeted 26 percent this year, Samra sees his preferred combination of cheapness and a safety buffer. The Swiss bank, the third-largest holding in Samra’s biggest fund, has strong capital levels, a less complex balance sheet and a wealth-management business that’s worth more than the lender’s market value, says Samra, while declining to specify which stocks he’s been buying amid the selloff. Chairman Axel Weber is taking the right approach by prioritizing wealth management over investment banking, he said.

Earlier this month, Credit Suisse Group AG reported its biggest quarterly loss in seven years as it wrote off goodwill and set aside provisions for litigation, sending shares to a 25-year low. A slump in earnings at UBS’s wealth-management and investment-banking divisions also sparked its biggest stock drop in more than a year.

UBS is “way ahead of their competitors, well ahead of Credit Suisse,” Samra said. Short-term headwinds such as declines in assets under management and tougher regulations “don’t undermine the franchise in the long term.”

The International Value Fund had 42 holdings at the end of January, with Compass Group Plc and Samsung Electronics Co. the two biggest holdings, according to information on Artisan Partners’ website.

Chinese Economy

One area where Samra’s not rushing to invest is China. He says the economy may have already stopped growing and valuations are “not even close” to enticing.

As for oil, the other obsession of global markets this year, Samra says it’s probably time to get bullish. Growth in production has stopped and the lower prices will make substitute energy sources less attractive, he said. West Texas Intermediate traded near $30 a barrel on Tuesday, and has fallen more than 50 percent since June.

Samra’s main fund, which he manages with Daniel O’Keefe, beat 92 percent of peers over the past five years and 74 percent in 2016, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Samra and O’Keefe ranked in the top percentile with a 31 percent gain when they won Morningstar’s U.S. manager of the year for international stocks in 2013, according to the fund-ranking firm. They took top honors in the same segment in 2008 when the Artisan International Value Fund lost 30 percent.

Creating Bubbles

Samra says he’s doubtful about central bank monetary policies after the financial crisis. Japan, already buying unprecedented amounts of bonds to stimulate its economy, said last month it would move to negative interest rates. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi says more easing could come as soon as March.

“The world is not right,” Samra said. “You always run this balance between creating social unrest and creating bubbles, and we’ve erred on the side of creating bubbles," he said. “We’ve had distortion after distortion after distortion. And we keep applying more aggressively the same remedies and causing more distortions.”

Still, the former Harris Associates fund manager says his stocks are trading at high discounts to what he sees as their value, and the turmoil means it’s time to make money.

“You need a personality that can take the emotion and noise out of the equation,” he said. “We’ve got the contrarian streak” of buying things others want to offload, he said. “And we’ve got the conservative nature that we want to make sure that if we don’t get the analysis correct, we don’t get slaughtered.”

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Still no panic, just slow and steady selling. What's going to stop the bleeding?

Janet striking a pretty dovish tone tomorrow would be a step.

It should help short term, but will it really make any difference longer term? If the economy is so dependent on Fed intervention, it clearly isn't doing very well, but the market is priced as if it is. There has been a disconnect for quite a while.

Yes. The Fed always intervenes in the economy at every rate level. It cannot persistently set the nominal short term rate too far above/below the natural equilibrium without other consequences. The natural rate has likely been negative for some time.

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Still no panic, just slow and steady selling. What's going to stop the bleeding?

Janet striking a pretty dovish tone tomorrow would be a step.

It should help short term, but will it really make any difference longer term? If the economy is so dependent on Fed intervention, it clearly isn't doing very well, but the market is priced as if it is. There has been a disconnect for quite a while.

Yes. The Fed always intervenes in the economy at every rate level. It cannot persistently set the nominal short term rate too far above/below the natural equilibrium without other consequences. The natural rate has likely been negative for some time.

Realistically, how can they be much more dovish, and how will it improve the economy long term? If 7 years of ZIRP and several rounds of QE didn't fix things, what will?

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Maybe the tide is starting to turn...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-09/the-20-billion-manager-who-won-after-the-crisis-is-buying-again

David Samra, awarded for his stock-picking during and after the 2008 financial crisis, says he’s buying again.

Samra, who oversees about $20 billion for Artisan Partners, says now’s the time for a steady hand and no emotion as concern intensifies about the slowdown in China and the sliding price of oil. The winner of Morningstar Inc. international stock manager rankings in 2008 and 2013 says he’s sticking to his investment approach: finding undervalued shares with strong balance sheets.

“We welcome these types of markets,” Samra said in a phone interview from San Francisco on Monday. “We weren’t happy to see the potential social and economic disruption that happened during the financial crisis. It causes a lot of human misery. You’re not existentially happy about what’s going on. On the other hand, that turned out to be a market opportunity.”

Global equities erased $7.7 trillion in value this year through Monday as routs in commodities and Shanghai shares spread, taking global banks as the latest victim. Worldwide stocks neared a bear market on Tuesday as the yen surged and corporate bond risk jumped. The $10.7 billion Artisan International Value Fund, the largest Samra oversees, lost 8.3 percent in 2016 and is still beating about three-quarters of its peers.

Markets had become “very greedy” over the past few years, according to Samra, which he says was time to take advantage and sell shares. In today’s conditions, it’s time to “aggressively buy,” he said. His main fund had 12.7 percent of its holdings in cash as of Jan. 31.

UBS Bet

In UBS Group AG, which has plummeted 26 percent this year, Samra sees his preferred combination of cheapness and a safety buffer. The Swiss bank, the third-largest holding in Samra’s biggest fund, has strong capital levels, a less complex balance sheet and a wealth-management business that’s worth more than the lender’s market value, says Samra, while declining to specify which stocks he’s been buying amid the selloff. Chairman Axel Weber is taking the right approach by prioritizing wealth management over investment banking, he said.

Earlier this month, Credit Suisse Group AG reported its biggest quarterly loss in seven years as it wrote off goodwill and set aside provisions for litigation, sending shares to a 25-year low. A slump in earnings at UBS’s wealth-management and investment-banking divisions also sparked its biggest stock drop in more than a year.

UBS is “way ahead of their competitors, well ahead of Credit Suisse,” Samra said. Short-term headwinds such as declines in assets under management and tougher regulations “don’t undermine the franchise in the long term.”

The International Value Fund had 42 holdings at the end of January, with Compass Group Plc and Samsung Electronics Co. the two biggest holdings, according to information on Artisan Partners’ website.

Chinese Economy

One area where Samra’s not rushing to invest is China. He says the economy may have already stopped growing and valuations are “not even close” to enticing.

As for oil, the other obsession of global markets this year, Samra says it’s probably time to get bullish. Growth in production has stopped and the lower prices will make substitute energy sources less attractive, he said. West Texas Intermediate traded near $30 a barrel on Tuesday, and has fallen more than 50 percent since June.

Samra’s main fund, which he manages with Daniel O’Keefe, beat 92 percent of peers over the past five years and 74 percent in 2016, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Samra and O’Keefe ranked in the top percentile with a 31 percent gain when they won Morningstar’s U.S. manager of the year for international stocks in 2013, according to the fund-ranking firm. They took top honors in the same segment in 2008 when the Artisan International Value Fund lost 30 percent.

Creating Bubbles

Samra says he’s doubtful about central bank monetary policies after the financial crisis. Japan, already buying unprecedented amounts of bonds to stimulate its economy, said last month it would move to negative interest rates. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi says more easing could come as soon as March.

“The world is not right,” Samra said. “You always run this balance between creating social unrest and creating bubbles, and we’ve erred on the side of creating bubbles," he said. “We’ve had distortion after distortion after distortion. And we keep applying more aggressively the same remedies and causing more distortions.”

Still, the former Harris Associates fund manager says his stocks are trading at high discounts to what he sees as their value, and the turmoil means it’s time to make money.

“You need a personality that can take the emotion and noise out of the equation,” he said. “We’ve got the contrarian streak” of buying things others want to offload, he said. “And we’ve got the conservative nature that we want to make sure that if we don’t get the analysis correct, we don’t get slaughtered.”

Oh sure

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Still no panic, just slow and steady selling. What's going to stop the bleeding?

Janet striking a pretty dovish tone tomorrow would be a step.

It should help short term, but will it really make any difference longer term? If the economy is so dependent on Fed intervention, it clearly isn't doing very well, but the market is priced as if it is. There has been a disconnect for quite a while.

Yes. The Fed always intervenes in the economy at every rate level. It cannot persistently set the nominal short term rate too far above/below the natural equilibrium without other consequences. The natural rate has likely been negative for some time.

Realistically, how can they be much more dovish, and how will it improve the economy long term? If 7 years of ZIRP and several rounds of QE didn't fix things, what will?

If money injections are expected to be temporary they have little impact. If the Fed says they will not allow inflation to go over 2% they are telling the market QE's impact is temporary.

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Still no panic, just slow and steady selling. What's going to stop the bleeding?

Janet striking a pretty dovish tone tomorrow would be a step.

It should help short term, but will it really make any difference longer term? If the economy is so dependent on Fed intervention, it clearly isn't doing very well, but the market is priced as if it is. There has been a disconnect for quite a while.

Yes. The Fed always intervenes in the economy at every rate level. It cannot persistently set the nominal short term rate too far above/below the natural equilibrium without other consequences. The natural rate has likely been negative for some time.

Realistically, how can they be much more dovish, and how will it improve the economy long term? If 7 years of ZIRP and several rounds of QE didn't fix things, what will?

If money injections are expected to be temporary they have little impact. If the Fed says they will not allow inflation to go over 2% they are telling the market QE's impact is temporary.

Money injections are always expected to be temporary. You can't expect her to change the mandate to 10% inflation and 2% unemployment or something, right? What should/can she say?

Edited by humpback
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Still no panic, just slow and steady selling. What's going to stop the bleeding?

Janet striking a pretty dovish tone tomorrow would be a step.
It should help short term, but will it really make any difference longer term? If the economy is so dependent on Fed intervention, it clearly isn't doing very well, but the market is priced as if it is. There has been a disconnect for quite a while.
Yes. The Fed always intervenes in the economy at every rate level. It cannot persistently set the nominal short term rate too far above/below the natural equilibrium without other consequences. The natural rate has likely been negative for some time.
Realistically, how can they be much more dovish, and how will it improve the economy long term? If 7 years of ZIRP and several rounds of QE didn't fix things, what will?

A war. Always a war. Humans have always advanced through wargare, death, and rebuilding better than it wa and learning from ever better ways to kill eachother.

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Still no panic, just slow and steady selling. What's going to stop the bleeding?

Janet striking a pretty dovish tone tomorrow would be a step.
It should help short term, but will it really make any difference longer term? If the economy is so dependent on Fed intervention, it clearly isn't doing very well, but the market is priced as if it is. There has been a disconnect for quite a while.
Yes. The Fed always intervenes in the economy at every rate level. It cannot persistently set the nominal short term rate too far above/below the natural equilibrium without other consequences. The natural rate has likely been negative for some time.
Realistically, how can they be much more dovish, and how will it improve the economy long term? If 7 years of ZIRP and several rounds of QE didn't fix things, what will?

A war. Always a war. Humans have always advanced through wargare, death, and rebuilding better than it wa and learning from ever better ways to kill eachother.

So buy Lockheed?

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Still no panic, just slow and steady selling. What's going to stop the bleeding?

Janet striking a pretty dovish tone tomorrow would be a step.

It should help short term, but will it really make any difference longer term? If the economy is so dependent on Fed intervention, it clearly isn't doing very well, but the market is priced as if it is. There has been a disconnect for quite a while.

No question Fed policy has helped fuel the market the past several years. I'm of the opinion that the economy is holding its own right now. The majority of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings so far and earnings per share are on pace to fall 2%. However, excluding energy they would rise 4%. Oil is clearly a drag on earnings. Disappointing jobs number last week but wage growth accelerating. Unemployment rate under 5%, I understand this is very misleading due to the number of people who stopped looking for work. Corporate buybacks are very high to start the year which is a positive sign for stocks. The key is going to be what the Fed does this year. Short term I expect continued volatility but once this fear over oil and China subsides I suspect the matket trends higher.

I think labor participation went down a lot when Baby Boomers enter retirement. Do you have comparative data on how much the retirees (voluntary or involuntary) are spending?

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While I really don't want to touch stocks right now, I'm looking at Ford, with a P/E of 9.5, and a divy of 5.25. Talk me out of taking a small position here. What am I missing? If I wasn't fearful of :roosting: I would have already taken a position.

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While I really don't want to touch stocks right now, I'm looking at Ford, with a P/E of 9.5, and a divy of 5.25. Talk me out of taking a small position here. What am I missing? If I wasn't fearful of :roosting: I would have already taken a position.

I'd rather buy a kilo of C.

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While I really don't want to touch stocks right now, I'm looking at Ford, with a P/E of 9.5, and a divy of 5.25. Talk me out of taking a small position here. What am I missing? If I wasn't fearful of :roosting: I would have already taken a position.

I'd rather buy a kilo of C.

Hey, just let me know when the party's starting...

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I feel like we need to see some significant oil companies either going out of business or being bought out by the bigees. If OPEC is dead set on glutting the market and driving some of the US pretenders out of the market then so be it. Once that capitulation happens I could see a big move in oil as people may feel that a corner has been turned. So, yes, we need some kid gloves from Janet but I also think we need something to indicate a change in the oil sector. Plus a positive report from China, true or not, could help.

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When looking for issues with the market, Tesla should be the poster child. I mean, they only lost $2.30 a share this year, absolutely crushing it. They should be profitable this year, lets rally 10%. They did sell a whopping 17k cars in Q4.

Why don't we compare to Ford, being that Tesla is worth roughly half of Ford, their comparison should be close, I'll let you decide who is who.

Company A:

$44B market cap

Q4 $40B revenue

Q4 $1.8B GAAP profit

Q4 1.8M units sold

2016 expecting lots of profit

Down since Q4 numbers

Company B:

$20B market cap

Q4 $1.75B revenue

Q4 $320M loss

Q4 17,000 units sold

2016 even inflating numbers will still be GAAP unprofitable

Up 10% after reporting

Can we guess who is who?

Edited by fantasycurse42
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Hey, but they're the future... ELECTRIC CARS!11!!! MUSK!!11!!! We should price them like they've already succeeded. Instead of a P/E of 10-15, lets give them a P/E of what 15 would be in 12 years if EVERYTHING goes perfect.

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I just can't think of one reason why TSLA is a buy. I understand their technology etc., but I'm referring to how they're currently valued. Musk hasn't put out accurate forecasts, ever, he basically lies during earnings calls with his predictions. Even if his forecasts were accurate, which they haven't been once, they're still priced wildly.

If we do see a real bear market, I think TSLA would get slaughtered (and still be overpriced). Luckily, I've never put any money on this opinion, even though I've felt like this for almost 3 years when they had their first pop to over $100. This stock is the definition of irrational exuberance IMO, even after a 40% fall to start the year.

Honestly, I'll prob never short them or NFLX, they just defy gravity and I don't want to be caught on the wrong side.

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I just can't think of one reason why TSLA is a buy. I understand their technology etc., but I'm referring to how they're currently valued. Musk hasn't put out accurate forecasts, ever, he basically lies during earnings calls with his predictions. Even if his forecasts were accurate, which they haven't been once, they're still priced wildly.

If we do see a real bear market, I think TSLA would get slaughtered (and still be overpriced). Luckily, I've never put any money on this opinion, even though I've felt like this for almost 3 years when they had their first pop to over $100. This stock is the definition of irrational exuberance IMO, even after a 40% fall to start the year.

Honestly, I'll prob never short them or NFLX, they just defy gravity and I don't want to be caught on the wrong side.

I look at the numbers on NFLX and just do not understand it. P/E 316?? WTF, PEG is over 10, no dividend. But I also dont have the balls to short it.

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I feel like tomorrow has the makings for a bloodbath.

Should've bought the TVIX :kicksrock:

After trying for years as a short term trader though, it just isn't for me. I lack discipline. I'm just looking for spots to make long term buy & holds, we aren't there yet IMO.

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