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Stock Thread (8 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
Nick Vermeil
Footballguy
I meant to say SELL! SELL! (RIOT).Nick Vermeil said:
drunken slob
Footballguy
Desert_Power
Footballguy
WFC today 
McBokonon
Footballguy
Yeah, mine didn't trigger either. Oh well.Tried some COIN at 381.01 but didn't get filled. I think it was pretty close it bounced all around there. $414 now
Tried some COIN at 381.01 but didn't get filled. I think it was pretty close it bounced all around there. $414 now
Did you leave your orders in?
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
No I was just trying to grab some for the initial push to sell a few mins later, not buy into a long term position.
I did get a couple really small scalps in on the way back down.
McBokonon
Footballguy
urbanhack
Fight The Power!
Capella
Footballguy
urbanhack
Fight The Power!
I just bought some (80 shares) around $63 last week. Might add some more but it’s nice to see it pop a little. Was contemplating adding when it got around $60 on Monday. Might wait to see if it settles back down as there wasn’t really much new news. People paid up to $180 in the two weeks after the IPO. The price now is basically the IPO price ($62ish) but it opened over $90 so the past couple weeks is the cheapest it’s ever been.
Capella
Footballguy
Think I’m gonna wait to see if this hits 2 something. Interested but that seems high to me. Jmo.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I had a little from IPO day at $100. Sucks to see that back down here given how high the highs were that I held through, but oh well.
Bought 75 more shares earlier this week in the low 60's but sold out of the majority of those today in low 70's as, like you said, it seemed like too fast of a run-up on air.
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Yeah, I’m looking to add so I don’t mind it settling back down to $60 before I add more. Seems weird but it’s something I want to ride for awhile and it doesn’t seem like real news so I see a lower add.
The last few weeks have been nice to get me back positive on 2021, but I do have some more cash to use so don’t mind a day like this. I still have some SPACs and stuff like KALA hanging around. Might be a good time to finally dump those and reinvest elsewhere.
JB Breakfast Club
Footballguy
Green stonk days are fun.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
The pre-merger SPACs are interesting to me. So many of them are down sitting right on NAV now whereas a month ago it was impossible to find any, even brand new ones, near NAV.
SPACs have been "dead" before and come roaring back so seems like a solid no risk bet to start throwing some cash into those again if it's not cash that people are planning to spend elsewhere.
JB Breakfast Club
Footballguy
I'd really like to see VACQ do something since the merger with Rocket Labs is imminent. VGAC (23andme) at $10 screams value, but it isn't budging. I'm confused by SPACs.
That’s my thought. I haven’t finished all the positions I want to finish and at this point the chance that some of these SPACs merge with something I really want is negligible and honestly if they do you can still probably get in cheap enough if it’s long term.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
TripItUp
Footballguy
by "eventually" I meant this afternoon.
The way they publicize and pump these offerings is a crime...rookie retailers can get really burned.
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BassNBrew
Footballguy
I remember people last summer telling me I was foolish for buying in the low 20s. If only I’d had some conviction on a good stock and not gotten Bezeled into Anchozon I’d be retiring a year earlier.Everything else took a dive into the close, but WFC finished at $42.03
Desert_Power
Footballguy
I have some shares at 22.05 that finally hit long term in a month, but should have bought a lot more that day. Would have been a better buy than some of the things I bought last summer, but the exposure was just too big.
Will be interesting to see how BAC does tomorrow. I still think analysts have not truly priced in the reserve release/buy back frenzy that we will see later this year. JPM alone released $5B of reserves for loan loss last quarter. CECL was never understood by the street IMO.
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David Dodds
Administrator
I don't want to turn this into a big GME thread so I will be brief here.
And although I know it's impossible to time the market, I have a lot of reasons to believe GME is about to be squeezed. I am not going to go through any of my reasons (you can find them if you spend countless hours on the Reddit forums) and give everyone ammunition to ridicule me when I end up being wrong. And I very well could be wrong.
I will however summarize how I will be approaching the next few days.
1. I expect major catalysts tomorrow (perhaps after market close) that will trigger a buying frenzy on Friday.
2. Friday's buying frenzy will in turn lead to a gamma squeeze as this call options train is deadly if the stock gets above $250. GME is a powder keg at these levels and will have a fairly smooth run up to $800 should the $250 get triggered. The $800 calls are massive and if ignited will put downward pressure on the entire stock market (forcing many liquidated positions to cover their GME shorts).
3. If I am right, I suspect we will see craziness on Monday/Tuesday and am predicting GME peak squeeze to be on Tuesday 4/20 as short positions get margin called.
How I am approaching things:
A. I will be buyer only on Thursday. I have a huge position already, but am looking to add some shares if the market opens at a reasonable level.
B. I will be watching Friday closely. I likely won't buy or sell (unless somehow my hypothesis is way wrong and shares are being sold closer to max pain levels of $140/share) in which case I probably will add shares.
C. If my thesis is right, I will start selling Monday on in a complex scheme of selling and looking to replace those shares cheaper through the squeeze. My strategy is to try and ride the squeeze for as long as I possibly can. If my thesis is wrong, I am back to day trading this thing on Monday.
Good luck everyone.
And although I know it's impossible to time the market, I have a lot of reasons to believe GME is about to be squeezed. I am not going to go through any of my reasons (you can find them if you spend countless hours on the Reddit forums) and give everyone ammunition to ridicule me when I end up being wrong. And I very well could be wrong.
I will however summarize how I will be approaching the next few days.
1. I expect major catalysts tomorrow (perhaps after market close) that will trigger a buying frenzy on Friday.
2. Friday's buying frenzy will in turn lead to a gamma squeeze as this call options train is deadly if the stock gets above $250. GME is a powder keg at these levels and will have a fairly smooth run up to $800 should the $250 get triggered. The $800 calls are massive and if ignited will put downward pressure on the entire stock market (forcing many liquidated positions to cover their GME shorts).
3. If I am right, I suspect we will see craziness on Monday/Tuesday and am predicting GME peak squeeze to be on Tuesday 4/20 as short positions get margin called.
How I am approaching things:
A. I will be buyer only on Thursday. I have a huge position already, but am looking to add some shares if the market opens at a reasonable level.
B. I will be watching Friday closely. I likely won't buy or sell (unless somehow my hypothesis is way wrong and shares are being sold closer to max pain levels of $140/share) in which case I probably will add shares.
C. If my thesis is right, I will start selling Monday on in a complex scheme of selling and looking to replace those shares cheaper through the squeeze. My strategy is to try and ride the squeeze for as long as I possibly can. If my thesis is wrong, I am back to day trading this thing on Monday.
Good luck everyone.
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Capella
Footballguy
What catalysts do you expect tomorrow and why?
I think gme chat is cool in here again. It’s tapered off significantly.
Quick scan of WSB shows everybody excited for tomorrow and people saying they can’t sleep but there’s over 35,000 posts in that one thread alone. Far too much to read.
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Nick Vermeil
Footballguy
David Dodds
Administrator
Listed in no order, I think all of these and more could help launch GME:
1. Roaring Kitty/DFV will exercise his calls and post his YOLO position by Friday at the latest.
2. CEO Sherman is out and will be off the board as well - Someone will be announced as interim CEO (Could be Ryan Cohen)
3. Gamestop results logged and announcing of Share Recall for upcoming vote at annual meeting in June.
4. Blackrock/Vanguard and a few other Cohen allies call back their GME shares from shorts so they can vote.
5. Blackrock earnings announcement and guidance (an indirect benefit)
6. SEC closed door meeting on 4/15 that many suspect is about liquidity concerns should GME squeeze.
7. All of the DTCC rules that have published the last few weeks. These deal with liquidation issues of hedge funds and market makers.
8. Melvin Capital reported massive quarterly decline. They are likely hanging on by a thread from being margin-called.
9. GME paying off all of their 2023 debt frees them up to buy back shares, offer dividends, or be engaged in mergers/acquisition. They incurred a penalty to pay this debt off early. Why? What of the three things mentioned above are they looking to do?
10. There are numerous hints via GameStop Twitter/website, Roaring Kitty twitter, etc. that the squeeze is imminent.
I could go on and on. For me the biggest tell was how easy GME stock went up today. The usual shorting walls did not exist. Lots of buying via dark pools too. Whales have joined the party (I am guessing Blackrock, Vanguard and others are adding shares aqgressively and they mostly have been non-players the last 2 weeks. I read it as there is no one looking to defend against this upcoming gamma squeeze (the max pain Friday endings we have seen the last month). It's like everyone knows the inevitable short squeeze is happening with GME and the event was just delayed to get all the DTCC rules updated. But further delaying is just going to make the squeeze even bigger as retail and institutions are net-buyers of shares at these levels.
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Capella
Footballguy
Alrighty then. I have no opinion if any of this will happen but I’m along for the ride.
identikit
Footballguy
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Hopefully it's not a ride down like the last triple witching blue moon to infinity Cappy nut squeeze.
Capella
Footballguy
Dwayne Hoover
Footballguy
JP Morgan analyst sees KALA as a strong buy. Eysuvis just got launched in January so some patience is needed on this one but I also believe it's going to pay off big in the second half of the year.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jpmorgan-2-stocks-stellar-long-154218824.html
"The dry eye market, says Neyor, represents a significant opportunity, with roughly 17 million US diagnosed patients. The analyst’s “conservative” long-term peak sales forecast for Eysuvis stands at over $750 million and Neyor anticipates a strong sales push in the year’s latter half should “de-risk the company’s dry eye commercialization plans.”
Underpinned by Eysuvis, Neyor sees a “highly favorable risk/reward for Kala,” which is reflected in a bullish price target. At $17, the figure is set to reward investors with 12-month returns of 125%, should Neyor’s thesis play out accordingly. Unsurprisingly, Neyor has an Overweight (i.e. Buy) rating on the shares.
Looking at the consensus breakdown, the J.P. Morgan analyst’s forecast appears on the more conservative end of the spectrum. Going by the $26 average price target, the shares are expected to surge by ~262% in the year ahead. Kala’s Strong Buy consensus rating is based on a unanimous 4 Buys. "
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jpmorgan-2-stocks-stellar-long-154218824.html
"The dry eye market, says Neyor, represents a significant opportunity, with roughly 17 million US diagnosed patients. The analyst’s “conservative” long-term peak sales forecast for Eysuvis stands at over $750 million and Neyor anticipates a strong sales push in the year’s latter half should “de-risk the company’s dry eye commercialization plans.”
Underpinned by Eysuvis, Neyor sees a “highly favorable risk/reward for Kala,” which is reflected in a bullish price target. At $17, the figure is set to reward investors with 12-month returns of 125%, should Neyor’s thesis play out accordingly. Unsurprisingly, Neyor has an Overweight (i.e. Buy) rating on the shares.
Looking at the consensus breakdown, the J.P. Morgan analyst’s forecast appears on the more conservative end of the spectrum. Going by the $26 average price target, the shares are expected to surge by ~262% in the year ahead. Kala’s Strong Buy consensus rating is based on a unanimous 4 Buys. "
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David Dodds
Administrator
JB Breakfast Club
Footballguy
The 5D chess play if we think good guys are in charge is to set up a buy at 150 since that is where SSR would trigger for Friday, right?
David Dodds
Administrator
SSR triggers tomorrow at $149.88 and this could actually happen. I am not sure that is telling either way (the stock flies on Friday or it's brought to max pain near $145). Because even if the good guys want the stock to go crazy on Friday, having SSR in play would make it harder for shorts to counter.
In the end, lots of big whales playing this way above all of us. If the squeeze does not happen soon though, I suspect it may never squeeze as the next gamma train is mid-July and I suspect interest is going to wain on this play.
dkp993
Footballguy
my 4 shares are ride or die. LolI haven’t checked in a while but is 2mil per share still the floor?
David Dodds
Administrator
The million per share guys bust me up. I think the SEC / Congress will intervene and settle. But I don't see how they award less than $1,000 a share. Everyone with $800 calls has to get paid and someone testified in front of Congress that this was heading above $1,000 a share when the platforms halted buying.
I haven’t checked in a while but is 2mil per share still the floor?
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Desert_Power
Footballguy
I do agree there is some mechanism driving the inverse correlation between GME and the broader market that we've seen in prior spikes.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Typically buy TZA and UVXY to protected against backslides. May make sense to buy GME instead.
JAA
Footballguy
Im on board, but I don’t see how this squeeze is any more potent than the last one. Frankly, the last one was exciting. We rocketed to 300, then the stock was halted, then there were massive short attacks. Why won’t we see that exact scenario again? Point being, the HFs don’t care that they are passing the buck to the next cycle. They will keep doing that until they win. They have the resources and they don’t care about the consequences. And as you mentioned there is a lot to lose if their positions are liquidated to cover.
The only difference I see now is that the DTCC has instituted these new measures where through the day firms may be requested to show their ability to cover the shorts. Before it was like days later they could show, they just recently passed the ability to checkin multiple times a day. The reason for this is CYA such that if a true squeeze happens the clearing houses won’t be holding the bag.
I’m long on GME but I’m not sure I see a true squeeze happening. There is billions and billions of dollars in the line. That’s a lot of bribe money. Needless to say I look forward to being wrong
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McBokonon
Footballguy
We were talking about this one earlier in the thread and it’s one you’ve brought up a lot. Companies don’t recall shares - those who lent shares to short sellers recall shares. Is the theory that GME lent out their own shares to be shorted? Because that’s the only way this one makes sense and it really doesn’t even make sense then.
JAA
Footballguy
This I agree with.
I read a some
DD showing how the entire Russel 2000 index was being shorted to bring down the ETFs holding GME. Now, this is a little out there, but I do agree there has been a whole lot of correlation without causation of GME going up and the rest of the market (at least my portfolio) going down. 
