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Stock Thread (13 Viewers)

Man what’s with Mondays lately. 
Who knows. Man, it’s hard not to watch the day to day carnage but it’s a little depressing seeing great results ignored. Luckily most of my recent carnage is all IRAs so I can’t even touch that for a decade+ anyway but it sucks.

 
UWMC is my largest holding now. I can't stop buying as it keeps falling.  
One of my few good moves this year, selling this in February when it jumped back over $11. They have earnings tonight and as far as I know it seems like there’s nothing you can report lately that won’t knock a few % off the price.

 
Feel like I've never been wrong on anything in my life than crypto.  I had no idea that something could be fueled by pure hype and memes to this extent.

I mean I thought, hey it's going to zero once people realize you can't spend it to buy anything, turned out that was it's very best feature.  Once decoupled from the fact that it actually has to be useful it went to the moon.

 
Feel like I've never been wrong on anything in my life than crypto.  I had no idea that something could be fueled by pure hype and memes to this extent.

I mean I thought, hey it's going to zero once people realize you can't spend it to buy anything, turned out that was it's very best feature.  Once decoupled from the fact that it actually has to be useful it went to the moon.
I was wrong on it but then tossed a bunch of racks into it in December and let me tell you, it’s way outperformed any of my other holdings. By miles. 

 
Feel like I've never been wrong on anything in my life than crypto.  I had no idea that something could be fueled by pure hype and memes to this extent.

I mean I thought, hey it's going to zero once people realize you can't spend it to buy anything, turned out that was it's very best feature.  Once decoupled from the fact that it actually has to be useful it went to the moon.
I know what you are saying. It almost feels like people are investing in beanie babies or the local arcade tokens. I get BTC/ETH (maybe not the full price), but some of the ones people are investing are no different than the ones in that buy crypto thread in here that was down what 90 something % at one point? If there’s no use to it, who’s going to keep buying it. People aren’t buying it because they believe in it they are just looking for the next new thing.

I wish I bought more than just BTC but man I don’t believe in stuff like DOGE and Safemoon. Same way I don’t believe in GME. I do think they will crash much harder because GME only reports every quarter and they’ve raised enough cash to be around for a long cap leak.

 
I know what you are saying. It almost feels like people are investing in beanie babies or the local arcade tokens. I get BTC/ETH (maybe not the full price), but some of the ones people are investing are no different than the ones in that buy crypto thread in here that was down what 90 something % at one point? If there’s no use to it, who’s going to keep buying it. People aren’t buying it because they believe in it they are just looking for the next new thing.
It is also being very aggressively advertised by those holders because they need new people buying to keep price high (early entrants seldom sell). Really classic ponzi scheme behavior...but can still go much higher.

 
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I know what you are saying. It almost feels like people are investing in beanie babies or the local arcade tokens. I get BTC/ETH (maybe not the full price), but some of the ones people are investing are no different than the ones in that buy crypto thread in here that was down what 90 something % at one point? If there’s no use to it, who’s going to keep buying it. People aren’t buying it because they believe in it they are just looking for the next new thing.

I wish I bought more than just BTC but man I don’t believe in stuff like DOGE and Safemoon. Same way I don’t believe in GME. I do think they will crash much harder because GME only reports every quarter and they’ve raised enough cash to be around for a long cap leak.
No this is 100% a beanie baby thing, and everyone knows it.  At some point the music stops, but for now it's wild.

 
Who knows. Man, it’s hard not to watch the day to day carnage but it’s a little depressing seeing great results ignored. Luckily most of my recent carnage is all IRAs so I can’t even touch that for a decade+ anyway but it sucks.
Yea stuff you’re holding for a decade like an IRA that you can’t trade I wouldn’t even think about. 

 
Feel like I've never been wrong on anything in my life than crypto.  I had no idea that something could be fueled by pure hype and memes to this extent.

I mean I thought, hey it's going to zero once people realize you can't spend it to buy anything, turned out that was it's very best feature.  Once decoupled from the fact that it actually has to be useful it went to the moon.
Don’t do that.  Everyone is wrong on Crypto until they aren’t.  A few bitcoiner platitudes....

”Not taking a position in BTC is taking a position on BTC”

”Everyone buys BTC eventually at the price they deserve”

And just make sure you are clear on some of the underpinnings of “Crypto”.  Doge is NOT Bitcoin.  They are not anywhere close to the same.  There is a huge amount of froth in the market as a whole but in my opinion it’s not in BTC or even ETH, it’s everything else.

 
Yea stuff you’re holding for a decade like an IRA that you can’t trade I wouldn’t even think about. 
I hear you. It’s hard to watch though when they continue to perform and get whacked and you see stuff that no one should be in blowing up. At least my taxable account isn’t getting crushed as much because it’s mainly AMZN and cash.

 
I hear you. It’s hard to watch though when they continue to perform and get whacked and you see stuff that no one should be in blowing up. At least my taxable account isn’t getting crushed as much because it’s mainly AMZN and cash.
I actually moved a small amount of amazon into a few other things. Considering doing it with draft kings too. Trying to diversify a little tiny bit. 

 
It is also being very aggressively advertised by those holders because they need new people buying to keep price high (early entrants seldom sell). Really classic ponzi scheme behavior...but can still go much higher.
Yeah, that Safemoon one seems completely setup that way and not even hiding it.

 
Well, it looks like I’m in it for the long haul. Even though I love sold off most of my TTD, it’s still one of my larger stocks. Here’s what happened this morning:

1. Beat revenue estimates

2. Beat earnings estimates

3. Raised Q2 guidance

4. Announced stock split

Down 13% premarket. I feel like I’ll be fine in a few years but dear lord this is a gut punch. Still growing 50-60% but it just doesn’t matter.
This is one that ran away from me last year while I waited for the dip that never came.  Awfully tempted to pull the trigger on it on this 20% drop, even though it's still up 74% in the last year.

 
Buying more PLTR as it drops. Hope I'm right about it. 
I reloaded my trading shares I sold in Jan. Added 2x the amount of shares I sold. This is another one I'll sell bonds for if it gets down 10-12 range. PLTR is growing about the same rate as CRWD with similar rev projections. Maybe CRWD is still overvalued, but I like PLTR here.

 
Yeah, that Safemoon one seems completely setup that way and not even hiding it.
I mean, the root of all of this was created by someone who is unknown and holds ~5% of the BTC that will ever be created  :shrug:  

I'm sure there are people trying to turn this technology into cool useful applications, but right now I just see a lot it as grifting. Grifting that is confusing way too much energy because the older protocols are deeply inefficient. 

Always like to see other FBGs making money though. Not hating on the people here making loot on it.

 
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I actually moved a small amount of amazon into a few other things. Considering doing it with draft kings too. Trying to diversify a little tiny bit. 
Oh, I’m way too diversified to be honest it’s just that most of that had done well so it’s all lumped in that growth stocks suck momentum. Even some of my more financial or retail or food industry based ones all seem to be stuck in a rut not just WFH stocks. I am keeping the rest of my Amazon, I did sell some before but I’m good with it.

I told myself I’d go through my stocks over the weekend to see what I don’t really want to be in anymore but now I’ve got more incentive. There are some companies that look absolutely ripe for buy and hold. For instance, I mentioned how crazy FLGT looks based on the fact that this year they should have 50% of their market cap in cash on their balance sheets (amazing that making too much money is bad) and their non-CV testing was growing at 174% and that alone gave them a P/S of 10 for the other half of the market cap. That’s ignoring the fact that they are still doing a ton of CV testing and landed a big contract. Now today, I see UPST down 8% which puts their 2021 P/S at about 12. They are lower than they were before last quarter when they announced that oops, sorry we way underestimated our 2021 revenue and we’ll grow at 115% and we acquired a company that fits great and expands our market instantly. At $165 it was expensive although not crazy. At $87, it looks like it could be a huge runner in 5 years. They report earnings tomorrow after close so do you wait to see if they’ll continue down pre-earnings or wait till after the “news” because even solid results in any growth or tech or whatever stock gets hammered. Maybe I’ll dip my toes in again this afternoon and a little more tomorrow. Not planning on adding any other stocks yet but I still have some SPAC money and those aren’t fun plays anymore.

 
This is one that ran away from me last year while I waited for the dip that never came.  Awfully tempted to pull the trigger on it on this 20% drop, even though it's still up 74% in the last year.
It’s a great day to do it. Just depends on if you are looking long term or near term. The drop today based on earnings is ridiculous but it could continue to go down if the rut continues. Maybe open a 1/3 position now and keep adding. If it goes up then you made money, down you average down.

 
I reloaded my trading shares I sold in Jan. Added 2x the amount of shares I sold. This is another one I'll sell bonds for if it gets down 10-12 range. PLTR is growing about the same rate as CRWD with similar rev projections. Maybe CRWD is still overvalued, but I like PLTR here.
It’s growing slower. CRWD 2019 to 2020 was about 80% and PLTR was almost 50%. They are similarly valued I think as PLTR is worth a little less but has a little more in revenue. I think CRWD may be a little cheaper based on future growth rates. That said I like them both in 5 years. I think PLTR has a bit of a bigger risk in that it’s government revenues are driving more of their growth.

 
It’s growing slower. CRWD 2019 to 2020 was about 80% and PLTR was almost 50%. They are similarly valued I think as PLTR is worth a little less but has a little more in revenue. I think CRWD may be a little cheaper based on future growth rates. That said I like them both in 5 years. I think PLTR has a bit of a bigger risk in that it’s government revenues are driving more of their growth.
Both are projected to be around 30% rev growth next year. We'll see what PLTR guides at.

 
Both are projected to be around 30% rev growth next year. We'll see what PLTR guides at.
That’s not right for CRWD. In their last earnings call in March they estimated 2022 revenue (2021 calendar year, FY starts in February 2021) at over $1.3B. Last year’s revenue was $874M, so that’s a little over 50% growth.

 
I mean, the root of all of this was created by someone who is unknown and holds ~5% of the BTC that will ever be created  :shrug:  

I'm sure there are people trying to turn this technology into cool useful applications, but right now I just see a lot it as grifting. Grifting that is confusing way too much energy because the older protocols are deeply inefficient. 

Always like to see other FBGs making money though. Not hating on the people here making loot on it.
So would you recommend that I don't invest in Carole Baskin's Big Cat Coin? 

 
That’s not right for CRWD. In their last earnings call in March they estimated 2022 revenue (2021 calendar year, FY starts in February 2021) at over $1.3B. Last year’s revenue was $874M, so that’s a little over 50% growth.
Sorry, was talking 2023 which are just analyst projections that can be beaten I suppose. PLTR doesn't have projections for 2023 it looks like. 

 
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