identikit
Footballguy
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Stock Thread (21 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
McBokonon
Footballguy
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Melvin supposedly closed out of their GME short position in Q1.
There is no squeeze anymore. It’s just so much discussion and convincing people to buy. That’s it now. I think it was Oz that posted that both AMC and GME had 20% and under short positions which isn’t a lot considering how overvalued the stocks are on a “real” basis.
ericttspikes
Footballguy
Sofi's Q1 numbers if anyone is interested. Looks good to me. Nice uptick in member growth.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1818874/000110465921069505/tm2116935d1_425.htm
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1818874/000110465921069505/tm2116935d1_425.htm
JAA
Footballguy
I don’t think so. I think it’s like cryptos recent volatility. People want to invent some reason, whales buying and shorts squeezed, because it happened once but I think this is just pure you’ve got a lot of people interested in buying (or selling) because they believe every tweet. I mean it’s insane how a car company CEO and Snoop Dogg can drive markets with tweets. It’s really a funky time to be investing. It feels like you’ve gone from the best companies driving stock news to memes and tweets. Amazon and Apple crush, yawn. Hertz going bankrupt, pile in baby. SPAC sucky rap, all in #####es. Ryan Cohen tweets a duck pooping on a frog, woo hoo, moonshot! Elon Musk tweets he loves Doge, makes fun of Doge, Tesla loves Bitcoin, Tesla hates Bitcoin...
It’s amazing but honestly not surprising considering the attention span of all the stimulated folks flush with investable cash. There will be some fun stories in 5 years. Some will be about how cheap some purchases were and some will be wondering why people still own shares of some companies, but it’s going to be a bunch of Harvard Business School case studies.
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
JAA
Footballguy
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Charlie Harper
Footballguy
I'm holding until 6/9 when the votes are tallied. There's just too much out research from the guys at reddit that makes sense, especially after the hedge funds and Robinhood conspired to drive the price down.
The tweets from Cohen and now GME official Twitter are too coincidental to just ignore. What other company starts voting on 4/20 for a 6/9 board meeting?
Cohen is either playing the crowd as pawns or really signaling that something good can happen for the holders. However, if I was taking over a video game store. I wouldn't want to alienate my consumer base.
Do I think GME is worthless without the "squeeze"? Yes. Do I know for certain the squeeze will happen...again? No. However, I think there's a 50% chance of it happening and if it does squeeze like predicted than pot odds say I gotta stay in it.
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David Dodds
Administrator
Desert_Power
Footballguy
Charlie Harper
Footballguy
And which one is in the best interest of the company/ticker?
I'd like to think Cohen is smarter than stringing his consumer base along for short term capital infusion.
Capella
Footballguy
That’s a great question. GME isn’t a solid investment fundamentally and their last earnings wasn’t good and didn’t have any wow factor for the future. Is it in the best interest for the stock to do badly as they are trying to turn it around or is it better for it to crash now and then have the ability to go up while they turn it around.
I look at Best Buy as a great example for GME. They are worth $28B and GME is worth $12B. Problem is that BB has $47B in revenue and $1.8B in earnings. GME had $5B in revenue and negative earnings. GME hasn’t had positive earnings since 2018 and even then it was only $35 million. That’s why the price targets are $45 per share and that’s again assuming GME successfully turns things around and doesn’t just keep losing revenue.
I think for their long term success as a stock, it would be better if it crashed and they could build on that. If it just keeps losing 10-15% a year there won’t be anymore memes and interest and that could hurt their actual business. If it crashes, blame the hedge funds and start fresh and make it a positive story if it works.
Capella
Footballguy
The Man With No Name
Footballguy
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Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Is there a "normal"/expected relationship between Warrants and Commons?
There seems to me to be an arbitrage opportunity between IPOE and IPOEWS. Maybe I've been thinking about them wrong this whole time. Or maybe there's a typical shift in relationship closer to merger that I've missed?
It has seemed typical to me for most of the SPAC warrants to trade at a premium to commons when combined with the exercise price
IPOEWS currently $5.73 +$11.50 = $17.23 <<<<<IPOE $18.27
There seems to me to be an arbitrage opportunity between IPOE and IPOEWS. Maybe I've been thinking about them wrong this whole time. Or maybe there's a typical shift in relationship closer to merger that I've missed?
It has seemed typical to me for most of the SPAC warrants to trade at a premium to commons when combined with the exercise price
- HAACW = $1.63 + $11.50 exercise = $13.13 >>>> HAAC $10.01.
- STICWS = $2.25 + $11.50 exercise = $13.75 >>>>> STIC $9.96).
IPOEWS currently $5.73 +$11.50 = $17.23 <<<<<IPOE $18.27
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
GHVIW = $4.10 + $11.50 = $16.10 >>>>>> GHVI $12.18
McBokonon
Footballguy
I’m no expert at all, but in this case HAAC is $10.01 today. The warrants have a date in the future like options, so aren’t you paying $1.63 for the right to buy HAAC at $11.50 in 2025 or whenever the hell they expire?
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Mostly accurate statement, yes. But the price of those Warrants is added to the $11.50 to determine your basis in the Common when you exercise. And they're not really dated, other than the expiration. I believe you can convert any time post-merger.
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identikit
Footballguy
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Capella
Footballguy
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
unit's at $19.55. With the common at $18.23 and 1/4 warrant per unit, that's implied warrant price of $5.28? Which is even cheaper.
I'm missing something here, right?
I'm missing something here, right?
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
The warrants and commons will eventually adjust to the $11.50 difference once the warrants are redeemable, either via the commons coming down in price relative to warrants, warrants going up, or some combination of both.
If you're planning to hodl long term you may as well buy the warrants as like you said, they are cheaper and get you the same thing in the end. If you're planning to move out of the stock in the short term the arbitrage gap could be anywhere at the time you want to sell, possibly even larger than it is now. We played NKLA warrant arbitrage in this thread last year when the gap was massive (like $20 difference if I recall). Ultimately in that case they both lost so much value with the air coming out of the company that the lost stock price more than covered the arbitrage difference in the end, but SoFi seems much more stable.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
My summary of that:
Point in time, if you were going to buy into IPOE anyway, the WS or the U would seem to be the way to go right now. There shouldn't necessarily be an expectation that the relationship between the common and the warrant will return to "normal". And if it does, it's just as likely the common regresses rather than the WS appreciating.
Point in time, if you were going to buy into IPOE anyway, the WS or the U would seem to be the way to go right now. There shouldn't necessarily be an expectation that the relationship between the common and the warrant will return to "normal". And if it does, it's just as likely the common regresses rather than the WS appreciating.
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Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Earnings will ultimately decide it (and I'm sure smack them back down even with a beat), but CRM sure feels like it's dying to bust out.
Looks like the short positions have to be the main bulk of the gains, which makes sense. I looked at the top holdings and some have done well but nothing close to the gain YTD. Since the market peaked in February the short game absolutely would have helped.
Also, assuming it’s BIVRX you are talking about.
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identikit
Footballguy
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ericttspikes
Footballguy
So an unprofitable Oat Milk company that generated $420 million in sales IPOs at $12 B but SPACS are now garbage?
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JB Breakfast Club
Footballguy
I have 2k to throw at something highly speculative. I have enough AMC/GME. Anyone want to pitch something fun?
Desert_Power
Footballguy
The warrants have a time component to them. Both when they start and end being redeemable. As FreeBagel said, eventually they should converge. DNMR warrants were once off about $10 from where they should have been. Of course, both the warrant and the underlying are down big from peak...but they're now trading much more closely to the real value since I believe redemptions start next week.
There are Black-Scholes and other warrant valuation models you can try out to get a sense of fair value. I certainly think there are arbitrage opportunities out there since I have seen very little commentary about this space. You also have a fairly large piece of the SPAC community that seems to invest in only warrants, further creating dislocations (and potential opportunities).
I haven't bought a new SPAC since March or so just because issuance is dried up. Plenty of different SPAC units bought near NAV. We'll see if any of these acorns become an oak.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
identikit
Footballguy
Sand
Footballguy
JB Breakfast Club
Footballguy
ericttspikes
Footballguy
Not sure if it's fun, but I've been scaling into OPEN. Beaten down, has Chamath stink all over it. Still might go below 10 yet but is looking to have rev in the $8-$10 B range next year and creep toward profitability. Sitting at $8B now and I'm looking for a double in 6-12 months on a sentiment reversal. Also seems like at worst a neutral play if not better suited for inflationary environment IF those fears pan out.
-OZ-
Footballguy
I wish I had bigger
's :( ~15% gain in less than 2 days in a company I like
ericttspikes
Footballguy
My financial advisor said I had too much when I wanted to add in the low 200's. Might have to fire that guy. But I do have a lot, so probably the right call.I wish I had bigger
~15% gain in less than 2 days in a company I like
