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Stock Thread (15 Viewers)

stbugs said:
Based on this article, it seems like the folks that sell on this run up are likely to be way happier than the people who held for the dividend. It looks like it’ll be a fun watch. It is amazing to me people thinking $20 when this company before the merger was worth 1/100th of that. It’s also interesting that the 25% of the new company is worth more than the 75% of the new company. This is just another of the zany game of hot potato stock market. I am 100% on board in watching this show.
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Yeah this feels kind of fake right now, but the ride up will be fun. I am still planning an exit. If this gets crazy I am going to have to sell before the 25th. I don't want to though. 

 
msudaisy26 said:
Yeah this feels kind of fake right now, but the ride up will be fun. I am still planning an exit. If this gets crazy I am going to have to sell before the 25th. I don't want to though. 
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I would highly recommend selling before the news. This absolutely feels like the normal buy the rumor, sell the news cycle. I can’t imagine that there’s anyway that the dividend is high enough to make the current price per-market or wherever it ends up worth paying. Good luck.

 
stbugs said:
I would highly recommend selling before the news. This absolutely feels like the normal buy the rumor, sell the news cycle. I can’t imagine that there’s anyway that the dividend is high enough to make the current price per-market or wherever it ends up worth paying. Good luck.
Click to expand...
Based on that theory.... when is the time to sell? The 24th? Assuming it hasn't had some major news or swing in price downward before that?

 
identikit said:
TRCH up 70+%

Sheesh
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Easiest money I've made in a while....this board is awesome.  Glad I sold some Amazon to buy this.  I agree with stbahumbug and sold 80%, with 60% of that at $10.31.  I hope the rest of you get your $20 a share and make my sale look foolish.

 
Sold 1/3 of my TRCH shares @  $10

Holding the rest for I don't know what price or when...

 
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Held my TRCH position all day. $10 obviously the key psychological level, so I want to give it a chance to break through in premarket and see if it has another run. If not, I won't be surprised if it drops to $8-9, but I'll risk $1-2 downside for $5+ potential upside. 

 
JB Breakfast Club said:
Held my TRCH position all day. $10 obviously the key psychological level, so I want to give it a chance to break through in premarket and see if it has another run. If not, I won't be surprised if it drops to $8-9, but I'll risk $1-2 downside for $5+ potential upside. 
Click to expand...
Same here.  Paying to see at least one more day.

 
JB Breakfast Club said:
Held my TRCH position all day. $10 obviously the key psychological level, so I want to give it a chance to break through in premarket and see if it has another run. If not, I won't be surprised if it drops to $8-9, but I'll risk $1-2 downside for $5+ potential upside. 
Click to expand...
Held my shares too... I’m up 335% but the possibility of a squeeze tomorrow is too much to pass up. Holding for $20.

 
JB Breakfast Club said:
Held my TRCH position all day. $10 obviously the key psychological level, so I want to give it a chance to break through in premarket and see if it has another run. If not, I won't be surprised if it drops to $8-9, but I'll risk $1-2 downside for $5+ potential upside. 
Click to expand...


Al Czervik said:
Same here.  Paying to see at least one more day.
Click to expand...


tuffnutt said:
Held my shares too... I’m up 335% but the possibility of a squeeze tomorrow is too much to pass up. Holding for $20.
Click to expand...
This is where I am at. I haven't decided exactly when yet, but going to sell half of my shares in the 18 to 25 range and then free roll the rest until I decide on a new exit point. 

 
Amazon contain article....

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435898-amazon-stock-10-years

Where Will Amazon Stock Be In 10 Years? Probably Lower Than You Think

Where Will Amazon Stock Be in 10 Years?

(here's a portion of the article)

We already know that AWS represents about 2/3rds of Amazon's profit (Amazon is expected to earn $55 EPS in 2021, so I'll assign $36 of that to AWS and $19 to everything else. Amazon doesn't disclose this in their financials so I'm making an educated guess). Let's do some handicapping. Let's say AWS income grows by 25 percent for the next 5 years (i.e. triples in 5 years) and grows 5 percent after, at which point the business is mature. For the rest of Amazon's business, we'll assume it grows at 10 percent for 5 years and 5 percent after.

Under my forecast, AWS income would grow from $36/share to $110/share in 5 years, while other income would grow to $31/share. In sum, I calculate that Amazon would earn $141/share in 2026, which puts my best-guess estimate above the lowest sell-side earnings estimate but below the median estimate (I previously had estimated EPS of $150 by 2025 the last time I covered Amazon, this update reflects my new modeling- I'm less sunny on AMZN's prospects the more I dig into its financials). In 2031, assuming 5 percent growth from maturity in 2026, my ballpark estimate for Amazon's earnings is $180 per share. As Amazon's growth slows to earth, I would expect the multiple to shrink a bit, to 28x by 2026, and to 25x by 2031. This gets me a new price target for Amazon of roughly $4000 by 2026 and $4500 by 2031. If you think the multiples will be higher on AMZN stock then add a few hundred dollars to both estimates.

This is indicative of low-to-mid single-digit expected annual returns for Amazon stock. I do indeed think that the law of large numbers will eventually apply to Amazon and that their revenue growth won't continue like this forever. After all, we just came out of a pandemic, which was one of the best possible macro events that could happen to Amazon. Extrapolating future growth for work-from-home stocks when their products were influenced by pandemic demand and government restrictions is not going to match future reality in many cases. When you model Amazon's earnings, the future price estimates are very sensitive to the growth rate, which cuts both ways. If Amazon grows earnings faster for several years, the stock will appreciate correspondingly, maybe to $5000 or higher, but if growth slows, the 48x multiple will slowly bleed away, as has happened to thousands of tech companies in the past, and as happened to Amazon itself from 2000 to 2008. Obviously, the stock returns are very sensitive to the growth rate, if Amazon grows earnings to $300 per share like the high analyst estimate suggests by 2026 and then grows from there, then AMZN is easily a $7000+ stock. However, in my view, this would require implausibly high growth rates.

I believe that when analysts hang these very high earnings numbers far out in the future that they're biased by what has happened in the past. Analysts underestimated AWS before, but now everyone is talking about AWS, which makes me think that they might be too excited about WFH plays just the same way people were overexcited about sections of tech in 2000. I would not, under any circumstances expect that companies that grew 30+ percent during COVID should continue to do so in the future unless proven otherwise. Amazon's valuation is high in part because it's one of the biggest holdings of the NASDAQ, which gets index money irrespective of whether the companies can continue to grow. Based on fundamentals, I expect several of the top NASDAQ holdings to see negative returns going forward, while others are likely to see low but positive returns. That is how tech investing works, by the way, your winners cover your losers. In Amazon's case, I see a lot of plausible ways it can go down and fewer ways it can go up. This is almost entirely due to the price change between the start of the pandemic and now.

Risks to Amazon Stock

Amazon is somewhat unusual for capping salaries at $160k and paying the rest in restricted stock, which made some of its employees very rich, but partially at the expense of others who quit or were fired before their stock vests. The salary figures are significantly lower than other tech companies, while the stock component is higher. The turnover at Amazon appears to be dramatically higher than competitors like Google, which is known for having a gentler culture than Amazon. The business risk here is that since so much compensation is in stock and Amazon's corporate culture is so cutthroat, a falling share price could create a vicious cycle where talent leaves, leading to worse business performance, which then reinforces the cycle. The rising stock price led many employees and executives to tolerate the brutal culture at Amazon in the past, but if the stock does not continue to rise then Amazon could quickly have problems attracting and retaining talent. I've seen this happen before to companies in tech and finance, and it's not pretty when the negative feedback loop gets rolling. It's not something that is guaranteed to happen, but it is a risk I would consider.

Antitrust could very possibly be an issue for Amazon. Amazon is facing an antitrust lawsuit in DC over the so-called most favored nation clause in its contract with third-party sellers. The Democratic House of Representatives antitrust subcommittee has Amazon in its crosshairs as well. Amazon is likely to argue that their business dominance is because they've reduced prices for consumers, but the real antitrust threat, in the long run, is that AWS will be broken up. When Amazon decided to block Parler from using AWS hosting, it made a decision that is likely to cause Republicans to take legal action against them in the future if they regain control of the White House. This is within the 10 year period that this article covers, and memories can be quite long in politics. Even without the Parler issue, Amazon's leadership is excessively involved in politics compared to competitors, which creates downside risk for shareholders. Politicians don't have to cause Amazon losses to cause pain for shareholders, because the valuation is so high, all they have to do is slow down the growth rate. The Federal government did not succeed in its bid to break up Microsoft in 2001, but Microsoft's share performance during the early 2000s was dismal.

Competition is another risk that comes to mind. Amazon currently has a dominant market position, but as you read this, people at Microsoft and Google are looking for ways to cut into Amazon's market share. Amazon is "king of the hill", but in tech, there are plenty of companies that had high valuations in 2000 and aren't kings anymore. This is Amazon's first time on top of the NASDAQ, and while Amazon's foresight got them to the top, I question whether they will necessarily be able to stay there. There are different skill sets required to get to the top and stay there, and the level of turnover at Amazon may make the next phase of their growth more challenging than it would be otherwise.

 
BassNBrew said:
Amazon contain article....

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435898-amazon-stock-10-years

Where Will Amazon Stock Be In 10 Years? Probably Lower Than You Think

Where Will Amazon Stock Be in 10 Years?

(here's a portion of the article)

We already know that AWS represents about 2/3rds of Amazon's profit (Amazon is expected to earn $55 EPS in 2021, so I'll assign $36 of that to AWS and $19 to everything else. Amazon doesn't disclose this in their financials so I'm making an educated guess). Let's do some handicapping. Let's say AWS income grows by 25 percent for the next 5 years (i.e. triples in 5 years) and grows 5 percent after, at which point the business is mature. For the rest of Amazon's business, we'll assume it grows at 10 percent for 5 years and 5 percent after.

Under my forecast, AWS income would grow from $36/share to $110/share in 5 years, while other income would grow to $31/share. In sum, I calculate that Amazon would earn $141/share in 2026, which puts my best-guess estimate above the lowest sell-side earnings estimate but below the median estimate (I previously had estimated EPS of $150 by 2025 the last time I covered Amazon, this update reflects my new modeling- I'm less sunny on AMZN's prospects the more I dig into its financials). In 2031, assuming 5 percent growth from maturity in 2026, my ballpark estimate for Amazon's earnings is $180 per share. As Amazon's growth slows to earth, I would expect the multiple to shrink a bit, to 28x by 2026, and to 25x by 2031. This gets me a new price target for Amazon of roughly $4000 by 2026 and $4500 by 2031. If you think the multiples will be higher on AMZN stock then add a few hundred dollars to both estimates.

This is indicative of low-to-mid single-digit expected annual returns for Amazon stock. I do indeed think that the law of large numbers will eventually apply to Amazon and that their revenue growth won't continue like this forever. After all, we just came out of a pandemic, which was one of the best possible macro events that could happen to Amazon. Extrapolating future growth for work-from-home stocks when their products were influenced by pandemic demand and government restrictions is not going to match future reality in many cases. When you model Amazon's earnings, the future price estimates are very sensitive to the growth rate, which cuts both ways. If Amazon grows earnings faster for several years, the stock will appreciate correspondingly, maybe to $5000 or higher, but if growth slows, the 48x multiple will slowly bleed away, as has happened to thousands of tech companies in the past, and as happened to Amazon itself from 2000 to 2008. Obviously, the stock returns are very sensitive to the growth rate, if Amazon grows earnings to $300 per share like the high analyst estimate suggests by 2026 and then grows from there, then AMZN is easily a $7000+ stock. However, in my view, this would require implausibly high growth rates.

I believe that when analysts hang these very high earnings numbers far out in the future that they're biased by what has happened in the past. Analysts underestimated AWS before, but now everyone is talking about AWS, which makes me think that they might be too excited about WFH plays just the same way people were overexcited about sections of tech in 2000. I would not, under any circumstances expect that companies that grew 30+ percent during COVID should continue to do so in the future unless proven otherwise. Amazon's valuation is high in part because it's one of the biggest holdings of the NASDAQ, which gets index money irrespective of whether the companies can continue to grow. Based on fundamentals, I expect several of the top NASDAQ holdings to see negative returns going forward, while others are likely to see low but positive returns. That is how tech investing works, by the way, your winners cover your losers. In Amazon's case, I see a lot of plausible ways it can go down and fewer ways it can go up. This is almost entirely due to the price change between the start of the pandemic and now.

Risks to Amazon Stock

Amazon is somewhat unusual for capping salaries at $160k and paying the rest in restricted stock, which made some of its employees very rich, but partially at the expense of others who quit or were fired before their stock vests. The salary figures are significantly lower than other tech companies, while the stock component is higher. The turnover at Amazon appears to be dramatically higher than competitors like Google, which is known for having a gentler culture than Amazon. The business risk here is that since so much compensation is in stock and Amazon's corporate culture is so cutthroat, a falling share price could create a vicious cycle where talent leaves, leading to worse business performance, which then reinforces the cycle. The rising stock price led many employees and executives to tolerate the brutal culture at Amazon in the past, but if the stock does not continue to rise then Amazon could quickly have problems attracting and retaining talent. I've seen this happen before to companies in tech and finance, and it's not pretty when the negative feedback loop gets rolling. It's not something that is guaranteed to happen, but it is a risk I would consider.

Antitrust could very possibly be an issue for Amazon. Amazon is facing an antitrust lawsuit in DC over the so-called most favored nation clause in its contract with third-party sellers. The Democratic House of Representatives antitrust subcommittee has Amazon in its crosshairs as well. Amazon is likely to argue that their business dominance is because they've reduced prices for consumers, but the real antitrust threat, in the long run, is that AWS will be broken up. When Amazon decided to block Parler from using AWS hosting, it made a decision that is likely to cause Republicans to take legal action against them in the future if they regain control of the White House. This is within the 10 year period that this article covers, and memories can be quite long in politics. Even without the Parler issue, Amazon's leadership is excessively involved in politics compared to competitors, which creates downside risk for shareholders. Politicians don't have to cause Amazon losses to cause pain for shareholders, because the valuation is so high, all they have to do is slow down the growth rate. The Federal government did not succeed in its bid to break up Microsoft in 2001, but Microsoft's share performance during the early 2000s was dismal.

Competition is another risk that comes to mind. Amazon currently has a dominant market position, but as you read this, people at Microsoft and Google are looking for ways to cut into Amazon's market share. Amazon is "king of the hill", but in tech, there are plenty of companies that had high valuations in 2000 and aren't kings anymore. This is Amazon's first time on top of the NASDAQ, and while Amazon's foresight got them to the top, I question whether they will necessarily be able to stay there. There are different skill sets required to get to the top and stay there, and the level of turnover at Amazon may make the next phase of their growth more challenging than it would be otherwise.
Click to expand...
Kind of a meh article. I get the risks, but he’s acting like A) there is only online retail and AWS and B) he’s using the lowest growth numbers I’ve ever seen. Sure, if their growth, which is currently accelerating in 2021, basically slows to a crawl, it will be worth less. Why not just say hey, if their growth turns negative in 2022, that’ll be bad for the stock? Doesn’t make it anything other than theoretical math. On the retail and AWS, he’s completely ignoring other segments like streaming and advertising and who knows what else. Advertising in 2020 was $21.5B with 75% margins, which he ignored completely.

Here’s another article from 1.5 months ago from the same site with completely different results: https://seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4422633-amazon-all-in

Of course, I like the results of the second article, but I felt like it was more thorough than I’ll guess 5% growth and didn’t forget whole business segments that add much higher margins in 5 years.

 
msudaisy26 said:
Is this a word to the wise about waiting to long before we get out or are you recommending this because there is a trend and you see another spike?
Click to expand...
The former. If you are investing in a bad/not good company, you are day trading. Like the chart he posted or AMC at $30B+ market cap, TRCH will fall and fall hard. The question is when so it’s a timing thing. How much is an acceptable gain. If you wait to sell at $18-25 for a SS, you may never sell.

Again, good luck and don’t take my post as advice. I’m not a market timer but I would bet on TRCH being way lower (hard to quantify with the merger) by the end of the year. Hard to even know because if interest hangs around the price won’t bottom right away. Problem is that this is not GME or even AMC. No one is rooting for TRCH, it is purely a how do we profit stock so it can get dumped way more quickly.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
msudaisy26 said:
Is this a word to the wise about waiting to long before we get out or are you recommending this because there is a trend and you see another spike?
Click to expand...
More a reminder that things can turn south in a hurry

Looking to cash in on the blistering rally that has doubled the stock price in the past week, Torchlight Energy (NASDAQ:TRCH) discloses it upsized its stock offering to $250M from the $100M it planned previously.
Click to expand...
So they are going to raise cash selling what the market cap was worth 3 months ago and use that money to fund a special dividend?  Smells like a pump and dump to me.

 
stbugs said:
The former. If you are investing in a bad/not good company, you are day trading. Like the chart he posted or AMC at $30B+ market cap, TRCH will fall and fall hard. The question is when so it’s a timing thing. How much is an acceptable gain. If you wait to sell at $18-25 for a SS, you may never sell.
Click to expand...
Where is all this meme money coming from?  Billions of dollars just flooding the market.

 
BassNBrew said:
Where is all this meme money coming from?  Billions of dollars just flooding the market.
Click to expand...
Honestly, that’s a helluva question and might be a movie one day. If you have millions of followers is it really that hard to set your own price? If enough people by st market or bid higher and people keep asking more is it really billions of shares sold or is it the same people circling the shares around? The stimulus was a big ### chunk of change and crypto assets created a lot of wealth from nowhere. Maybe from there? We saw this type of action a long time before GME. Remember all those #### Chinese companies that went up a ton in a day. The only difference is that the “big money insiders” (could be redditors or Twitter folks or even hedge funds) were able to pull in retail investors to get ridiculous volume starting with GME. 

 
stbugs said:
The former. If you are investing in a bad/not good company, you are day trading. Like the chart he posted or AMC at $30B+ market cap, TRCH will fall and fall hard. The question is when so it’s a timing thing. How much is an acceptable gain. If you wait to sell at $18-25 for a SS, you may never sell.

Again, good luck and don’t take my post as advice. I’m not a market timer but I would bet on TRCH being way lower (hard to quantify with the merger) by the end of the year. Hard to even know because if interest hangs around the price won’t bottom right away. Problem is that this is not GME or even AMC. No one is rooting for TRCH, it is purely a how do we profit stock so it can get dumped way more quickly.
Click to expand...
People involved in these kind of run ups have stronger stomachs than previous examples. GME is still a $200 stock because retail refuses to eject. I'm counting on multiple runs and longer tops with so many hodlers involved. 

 
A much bigger insider sale this time.

$HGEN $13,999,660.31 of shares sold by Chappell Dale (Chief Scientific Officer), reported in a new form 4 filed with the SEC newsfilter.io/a/0aafc09850f...

 
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Reactions: JAA
JB Breakfast Club said:
People involved in these kind of run ups have stronger stomachs than previous examples. GME is still a $200 stock because retail refuses to eject. I'm counting on multiple runs and longer tops with so many hodlers involved. 
Click to expand...
But that’s what I’m saying about TRCH. Do you really think it has the same retail backing? I don’t. I think it’s more like that CBBT example where it’s a meme stock but would get dropped violently if the dividend comes out to be way lower than expected. I don’t think it has the same diamond hands. I see GME and AMC leaking slower than something like TRCH.

 
Bought RSLS pre-market. Purely a gambling/momo trade. Price targets are way higher, large seller finished selling so that pressure is gone. Maker of lap-bands and other weight loss stuff. I don’t plan on being in it for very long.

 
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