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At least I just got to dump a position. Owned some SHSP and while it had a nice day today due to being acquired (all cash), I was down a bit on it. No real upside as I sold it two cents over the merger price. I guess they could possibly raise the price but deals like this for all cash go fast and are likely already agreed to so no need to hold.

 
stbugs said:
At least I just got to dump a position. Owned some SHSP and while it had a nice day today due to being acquired (all cash), I was down a bit on it. No real upside as I sold it two cents over the merger price. I guess they could possibly raise the price but deals like this for all cash go fast and are likely already agreed to so no need to hold.
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Damn...Just closed out my position down 22%.  FU sharp spring.

 
Capella said:
This guy had one take on it. Up to you whether it concerns you or not. I couldn’t care less. Old guys taking money when they can isn’t breaking news to me. 

https://stocktwits.com/VeryJerry/message/347070585
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One thing I believe he's wrong about in that string is the timeframe. He said he has until year-end to sell. I'm pretty sure form 144 sales usually need to be completed in 3 months or another form needs to be filed. I'd be SHOCKED if they don't sell the rest of those shares, though.

 
stbugs said:
18 hours ago, BassNBrew said:
Amazon contain article....

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435898-amazon-stock-10-years

Where Will Amazon Stock Be In 10 Years? Probably Lower Than You Think

Where Will Amazon Stock Be in 10 Years?

(here's a portion of the article)

We already know that AWS represents about 2/3rds of Amazon's profit (Amazon is expected to earn $55 EPS in 2021, so I'll assign $36 of that to AWS and $19 to everything else. Amazon doesn't disclose this in their financials so I'm making an educated guess). Let's do some handicapping. Let's say AWS income grows by 25 percent for the next 5 years (i.e. triples in 5 years) and grows 5 percent after, at which point the business is mature. For the rest of Amazon's business, we'll assume it grows at 10 percent for 5 years and 5 percent after.

Under my forecast, AWS income would grow from $36/share to $110/share in 5 years, while other income would grow to $31/share. In sum, I calculate that Amazon would earn $141/share in 2026, which puts my best-guess estimate above the lowest sell-side earnings estimate but below the median estimate (I previously had estimated EPS of $150 by 2025 the last time I covered Amazon, this update reflects my new modeling- I'm less sunny on AMZN's prospects the more I dig into its financials). In 2031, assuming 5 percent growth from maturity in 2026, my ballpark estimate for Amazon's earnings is $180 per share. As Amazon's growth slows to earth, I would expect the multiple to shrink a bit, to 28x by 2026, and to 25x by 2031. This gets me a new price target for Amazon of roughly $4000 by 2026 and $4500 by 2031. If you think the multiples will be higher on AMZN stock then add a few hundred dollars to both estimates.

This is indicative of low-to-mid single-digit expected annual returns for Amazon stock. I do indeed think that the law of large numbers will eventually apply to Amazon and that their revenue growth won't continue like this forever. After all, we just came out of a pandemic, which was one of the best possible macro events that could happen to Amazon. Extrapolating future growth for work-from-home stocks when their products were influenced by pandemic demand and government restrictions is not going to match future reality in many cases. When you model Amazon's earnings, the future price estimates are very sensitive to the growth rate, which cuts both ways. If Amazon grows earnings faster for several years, the stock will appreciate correspondingly, maybe to $5000 or higher, but if growth slows, the 48x multiple will slowly bleed away, as has happened to thousands of tech companies in the past, and as happened to Amazon itself from 2000 to 2008. Obviously, the stock returns are very sensitive to the growth rate, if Amazon grows earnings to $300 per share like the high analyst estimate suggests by 2026 and then grows from there, then AMZN is easily a $7000+ stock. However, in my view, this would require implausibly high growth rates.

I believe that when analysts hang these very high earnings numbers far out in the future that they're biased by what has happened in the past. Analysts underestimated AWS before, but now everyone is talking about AWS, which makes me think that they might be too excited about WFH plays just the same way people were overexcited about sections of tech in 2000. I would not, under any circumstances expect that companies that grew 30+ percent during COVID should continue to do so in the future unless proven otherwise. Amazon's valuation is high in part because it's one of the biggest holdings of the NASDAQ, which gets index money irrespective of whether the companies can continue to grow. Based on fundamentals, I expect several of the top NASDAQ holdings to see negative returns going forward, while others are likely to see low but positive returns. That is how tech investing works, by the way, your winners cover your losers. In Amazon's case, I see a lot of plausible ways it can go down and fewer ways it can go up. This is almost entirely due to the price change between the start of the pandemic and now.

Risks to Amazon Stock

Amazon is somewhat unusual for capping salaries at $160k and paying the rest in restricted stock, which made some of its employees very rich, but partially at the expense of others who quit or were fired before their stock vests. The salary figures are significantly lower than other tech companies, while the stock component is higher. The turnover at Amazon appears to be dramatically higher than competitors like Google, which is known for having a gentler culture than Amazon. The business risk here is that since so much compensation is in stock and Amazon's corporate culture is so cutthroat, a falling share price could create a vicious cycle where talent leaves, leading to worse business performance, which then reinforces the cycle. The rising stock price led many employees and executives to tolerate the brutal culture at Amazon in the past, but if the stock does not continue to rise then Amazon could quickly have problems attracting and retaining talent. I've seen this happen before to companies in tech and finance, and it's not pretty when the negative feedback loop gets rolling. It's not something that is guaranteed to happen, but it is a risk I would consider.

Antitrust could very possibly be an issue for Amazon. Amazon is facing an antitrust lawsuit in DC over the so-called most favored nation clause in its contract with third-party sellers. The Democratic House of Representatives antitrust subcommittee has Amazon in its crosshairs as well. Amazon is likely to argue that their business dominance is because they've reduced prices for consumers, but the real antitrust threat, in the long run, is that AWS will be broken up. When Amazon decided to block Parler from using AWS hosting, it made a decision that is likely to cause Republicans to take legal action against them in the future if they regain control of the White House. This is within the 10 year period that this article covers, and memories can be quite long in politics. Even without the Parler issue, Amazon's leadership is excessively involved in politics compared to competitors, which creates downside risk for shareholders. Politicians don't have to cause Amazon losses to cause pain for shareholders, because the valuation is so high, all they have to do is slow down the growth rate. The Federal government did not succeed in its bid to break up Microsoft in 2001, but Microsoft's share performance during the early 2000s was dismal.

Competition is another risk that comes to mind. Amazon currently has a dominant market position, but as you read this, people at Microsoft and Google are looking for ways to cut into Amazon's market share. Amazon is "king of the hill", but in tech, there are plenty of companies that had high valuations in 2000 and aren't kings anymore. This is Amazon's first time on top of the NASDAQ, and while Amazon's foresight got them to the top, I question whether they will necessarily be able to stay there. There are different skill sets required to get to the top and stay there, and the level of turnover at Amazon may make the next phase of their growth more challenging than it would be otherwise.
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Kind of a meh article. I get the risks, but he’s acting like A) there is only online retail and AWS and B) he’s using the lowest growth numbers I’ve ever seen. Sure, if their growth, which is currently accelerating in 2021, basically slows to a crawl, it will be worth less. Why not just say hey, if their growth turns negative in 2022, that’ll be bad for the stock? Doesn’t make it anything other than theoretical math. On the retail and AWS, he’s completely ignoring other segments like streaming and advertising and who knows what else. Advertising in 2020 was $21.5B with 75% margins, which he ignored completely.

Here’s another article from 1.5 months ago from the same site with completely different results: https://seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4422633-amazon-all-in

Of course, I like the results of the second article, but I felt like it was more thorough than I’ll guess 5% growth and didn’t forget whole business segments that add much higher margins in 5 years.
Click to expand...
Funny.

Im in AMZN not because its a growth stock, but I believe it to be the safest long term investment available outside of fixed.

 
Bob Sacamano said:
One thing I believe he's wrong about in that string is the timeframe. He said he has until year-end to sell. I'm pretty sure form 144 sales usually need to be completed in 3 months or another form needs to be filed. I'd be SHOCKED if they don't sell the rest of those shares, though.
Click to expand...
Yea they for sure are selling those. 

 
JAA said:
Funny.

Im in AMZN not because its a growth stock, but I believe it to be the safest long term investment available outside of fixed.
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I agree, it hasn’t run up as much as others although it’s still done really well in 2020-2021. It is my safety blanket so to speak.

That said, it’s funny because it’s growth has been crazy the past few years. That’s what’s incredible about that article, their cash on hand and cash flow in the next few years may be ridiculous and it may just slide into being a solid dividend stock/safe place if they decide to start paying out money. Apple is a great company and like Amazon, their stock has gone up a little over 4x. What’s interesting is that from the start of 2018 through 2020, Apple’s revenue has increased 20%. Amazon’s revenue in the same 3 years has increased 117%. That’s unbelievable growth for a company that big. That’s also why I take the other article with a grain of salt assuming 5% growth in a few years. 

 
BassNBrew said:
Damn...Just closed out my position down 22%.  FU sharp spring.
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Yeah, that deal isn’t really a good one for investors, especially since it’s all cash and you don’t have a chance for more growth with the other company. Also, 20% isn’t much of a premium considering that the stock was almost 50% more earlier this year.

 
JAA said:
TRUFF -47%
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I've been buying more TRUFF if it makes you feel any better.  That being said, its in the infant stage and its highly speculative.  I am definitely of the belief that legislation is going to change and psychadelics will ultimately be prescribed for some mental health issues like PTSD and depression but we are still years out.  On top of that, there is no predicting which companies are ultimately going to emerge as the winners in the space.

What I do know is that I like the leadership team that they have in place, especially with Bruce Linton (former CEO of Canopy Growth) being their top advisor and Chairmen and now they have brought another person from Canopy, Will Lay on board, as Chief Strategy Officer.  They also have a former health minister from Canada on the team which should help navigate some of the bureaucracy as they ultimately do want to be selling product in North America.  They have people in place that have already experienced bringing companies from the grass roots to the big stage and navigated legal processes to get there, I think this helps them in the long run.

I think the merger that they just announced which is also going to get them into a CBD/Cannabis play, is going to ultimately be a good thing.   One thing they already are doing is creating lines of revenue, even with what they currently sell in as psylocybin truffles in the Netherlands, they are ahead of a lot of companies in this regard.  Now they are bringing in more lines with the merger with Creso Labs and having a cannabis line of products.   They seem to always be trying to better position themselves and make strategic acquisitions to grow the company further, which at this point is all I can ask for.

So absolutely no guarantees here but I like what they are doing and as a purely speculative play, I think its undervalued. I've been adding and not selling.

 
Senator David Wells

@wellsdavid·

16m

The UPDATE you’ve been waiting for: Bill #C218 has officially passed in the Senate & will become law in the coming days. I’m honoured to have worked to make single-event sports betting legal in Canada. #cdnpoli #nlpoli

@KevinWaugh_CPC

@SenateCA

 
tuffnutt said:
Trch owners what are we doing? I couldn’t have been more wrong on the big squeeze today... bummed.
Click to expand...
Sold most of mine for a 15 percent profit. Gave back roughly 30 percent today, but I took a shot and missed. Seeing this dip today made me lose faith that  the dividend payout will be anything good. 

On to the next one. 

 
General Malaise said:
Senator David Wells

@wellsdavid·

16m

The UPDATE you’ve been waiting for: Bill #C218 has officially passed in the Senate & will become law in the coming days. I’m honoured to have worked to make single-event sports betting legal in Canada. #cdnpoli #nlpoli

@KevinWaugh_CPC

@SenateCA
Click to expand...
What are the plays here?

 
@KGB since you added RIOT I'm assuming you're holding for a long period?  

I'm looking for a short flip myself.  Right now 30kish seems to be the bottom for BTC and has been quickly bouncing back to 40k.

 
BassNBrew said:
I reading you still will get the dividend. Also reading if the dividend is over 25% the two day record date drops to one. 
Click to expand...
Do you have a link where you are reading this? I can only find info saying that you only get the dividend if you had bought them by the 22nd (today) and held them through the 24th. 

 
msudaisy26 said:
Do you have a link where you are reading this? I can only find info saying that you only get the dividend if you had bought them by the 22nd (today) and held them through the 24th. 
Click to expand...
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/recorddate.asp

Notably, different rules apply if the dividend is 25% or greater of the value of the security, which is quite rare. In this case, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) indicates that the ex-date is the first business day following the payable date.
Click to expand...

 
The Man With No Name said:
Mudrick Capital Acquisition Corp II - Ordinary Shares - Class A (MUDS) - :topps Company, Which is Merging With Mudrick Capital Acquisition Corporation Ii, Says Q1 Sales Rose 55.3% to $166.6 Million .

https://www.streetinsider.com/SEC+Filings/Form+DEFA14A+Mudrick+Capital+Acquisit/18586958.html
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Update on my my all in MUDS strategy. It’s been a rough month. Been buying small lots on the dips and now stand at 12,056 shares at dollar cost average of $12.62 (-2.93%). The whole AMC DEBACLE really set this stock back, stupid apes. 
 

Nice update on revenue today and I think we’ve finally turned the corner.  I’m long with a PT of at least $25. 

https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/there-s-a-nice-opportunity-here-with-mudrick-capital-15692013

#wishmeluck

#yolo

 
Last edited by a moderator:
pmedina said:
Update on my my all in MUDS strategy. It’s been a rough month. Been buying small lots on the dips and now stand at 12,056 shares at dollar cost average of $12.62 (-2.93%). The whole AMC DEBACLE really set this stock back, stupid apes. 
 

Nice update on revenue today and I think we’ve finally turned the corner.  I’m long with a PT of at least $25. 

https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/there-s-a-nice-opportunity-here-with-mudrick-capital-15692013

#wishmeluck

#yolo
Click to expand...
I'll take a $25 target

 
pmedina said:
Update on my my all in MUDS strategy. It’s been a rough month. Been buying small lots on the dips and now stand at 12,056 shares at dollar cost average of $12.62 (-2.93%). The whole AMC DEBACLE really set this stock back, stupid apes. 
 

Nice update on revenue today and I think we’ve finally turned the corner.  I’m long with a PT of at least $25. 

https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/there-s-a-nice-opportunity-here-with-mudrick-capital-15692013

#wishmeluck

#yolo
Click to expand...
Damn. That’s a chunk of shares. I think you’ll hit big. I only have 1000, but probably not done buying. Added 300 in the low 11’s. Total price disconnect right now IMO. 2021 revs + cash from merger almost equals total market cap.

 
pmedina said:
Update on my my all in MUDS strategy. It’s been a rough month. Been buying small lots on the dips and now stand at 12,056 shares at dollar cost average of $12.62 (-2.93%). The whole AMC DEBACLE really set this stock back, stupid apes. 
 

Nice update on revenue today and I think we’ve finally turned the corner.  I’m long with a PT of at least $25. 

https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/there-s-a-nice-opportunity-here-with-mudrick-capital-15692013

#wishmeluck

#yolo
Click to expand...
Wasn't me...I held and bought the dip. SPACs have been really wild, even post-conversion. Wouldn't mind a slow and steady climb here over the rest of the year. 

 
pmedina said:
Update on my my all in MUDS strategy. It’s been a rough month. Been buying small lots on the dips and now stand at 12,056 shares at dollar cost average of $12.62 (-2.93%). The whole AMC DEBACLE really set this stock back, stupid apes. 
 

Nice update on revenue today and I think we’ve finally turned the corner.  I’m long with a PT of at least $25. 

https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/there-s-a-nice-opportunity-here-with-mudrick-capital-15692013

#wishmeluck

#yolo
Click to expand...
Chet alias?

 
McBokonon said:
About a +3% week here and a pretty solid month or more overall. I’ll know exactly when I update my tracker.
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I can't even tell right now where I'm at.  House sale has caused all kinds of internal accounting fun.  Not quite this, but my cash percentage just went through the roof (not to mention, some of it is phantom cash as it really belongs to the IRS).

But, other than crypto and SOFI, things are looking decent these days.

 
pmedina said:
Update on my my all in MUDS strategy. It’s been a rough month. Been buying small lots on the dips and now stand at 12,056 shares at dollar cost average of $12.62 (-2.93%). The whole AMC DEBACLE really set this stock back, stupid apes. 
 

Nice update on revenue today and I think we’ve finally turned the corner.  I’m long with a PT of at least $25. 

https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/there-s-a-nice-opportunity-here-with-mudrick-capital-15692013

#wishmeluck

#yolo
Click to expand...
You guys make me look like a minnow sometimes.

That and I don't have the cajones to make bets like this.  (BTW, mods, we need a cajones smilie, dangit!)

 
  • Thanks
Reactions: JAA
2Squirrels1Nut said:
@KGB since you added RIOT I'm assuming you're holding for a long period?  

I'm looking for a short flip myself.  Right now 30kish seems to be the bottom for BTC and has been quickly bouncing back to 40k.
Click to expand...
I averaged down big big time.  So I am WAY overbought.  I will be selling chunks.  I agree with your 30-40K statement and plan to hold some long as I do think BTC hits 100K someday.

 
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