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Could've hit capitulation today if they didn't buy the open, just delaying a bottom, IMO. 

If we rally for the rest of the week, which is possible, especially since nobody expects it, I'd bet they sell it hard next week.

Edited by fantasycurse42
Unless something changes at the Fed or with tariffs
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3 minutes ago, ffldrew said:

LOL, I dont think Bitcoin should be worth anything. I believe more in the software/VISA like companies than something that is basically the thing in the middle of the transaction.

I love Amazon as a company and I think we are seeing them focus on their earnings more and blowing those numbers up rather than just reinvesting with no eye on profit. I should have known better that we were fighting a headwind for the short term and dumped for a nice profit when I had the chance. Oh well, I think in a year I'll probably be up, so no need to panic on retirement money which was up quite nicely the past few years.

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7 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

Could've hit capitulation today if they didn't buy the open, just delaying a bottom, IMO. 

If we rally for the rest of the week, which is possible, especially since nobody expects it, I'd bet they sell it hard next week.

Looking at your edit comments- I used to be in this camp as well, but lately I'm not seeing how those things would even make a big improvement. If the Fed backs off the tightening, it's only going to be due to the economy slowing, which isn't good for markets either. The trade stuff theoretically could give a boost, but it seems highly unlikely that China is just going to cave and we come out of it with some fantastic deal for us. Much more likely that it'll be give and take, which shouldn't move the needle much overall. Also, the longer it drags out the lower we go, so even if we do get some big boost out of it we still might end up lower than here after all is said and done.

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I wonder if we have any target fund people in here, I mean if you sell out down $3k in a 2060 fund and back down to a 2035 fund, it's kosher?  If you stay in the same provider they use most of the same internal funds.  

Honestly, I don't think the IRS is watching this stuff AT ALL.  In 2016 I did some selling in accounts that had stocks moving from one brokerage to another.  I self reported basis on all that, and they didn't even blink.  I imagine even thinking this stuff gets flagged is overly paranoid.  

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25 minutes ago, humpback said:

Looking at your edit comments- I used to be in this camp as well, but lately I'm not seeing how those things would even make a big improvement. If the Fed backs off the tightening, it's only going to be due to the economy slowing, which isn't good for markets either. The trade stuff theoretically could give a boost, but it seems highly unlikely that China is just going to cave and we come out of it with some fantastic deal for us. Much more likely that it'll be give and take, which shouldn't move the needle much overall. Also, the longer it drags out the lower we go, so even if we do get some big boost out of it we still might end up lower than here after all is said and done.

I've learned one major lesson in this bull market, the Fed is really the only thing that matters. I mean, sure everything else is important in bits and pieces, but when it is easy money policy from the Fed, you go all-in equities, when they pull liquidity and tighten, you look for shelter. It's obviously cliche, but it is prob the best investing advice you can give and it is only four words, don't fight the Fed. 
 

Powell does not give me the impression he is an easy money guy unless there is chaos, which right now there is not. Sure, we're slowing, but we're far from crisis mode. 

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58 minutes ago, pecorino said:

Up 3% since I said to buy. You're welcome.

I get that there is a point at which one would like to buy more at a specific level (I'd be a buyer at $1500) but if your portfolio is already loaded up with the number of shares you're happy with, then you've got to just hold. That's where I am, even with 20 measly shares. In fact, I wanted to sell at $1790 (figuring that these things tend to bump up against round numbers like 1800 and push back down--one of my many unproven theories) to get down to ten shares. So I would be a buyer but I'm in the same boat as you--saturated.

Amazon is a big part of my portfolio but nothing compared to my index funds. This is really the one thing I play around with constantly. That said, if this thing falls to 1100 or something I will just be so angry at myself for not finally pulling the trigger. That would be a noticeable shaving. 

I’m still sitting on it but GD it’s a lot of money to shed. 

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12 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

I've learned one major lesson in this bull market, the Fed is really the only thing that matters. I mean, sure everything else is important in bits and pieces, but when it is easy money policy from the Fed, you go all-in equities, when they pull liquidity and tighten, you look for shelter. It's obviously cliche, but it is prob the best investing advice you can give and it is only four words, don't fight the Fed. 
 

Powell does not give me the impression he is an easy money guy unless there is chaos, which right now there is not. Sure, we're slowing, but we're far from crisis mode. 

Just like "buy the dips", it works until it doesn't.

In any event, I agree with the last part, which is why it's hard for me to be optimistic- he's made it clear that he's focused far more on employment and the economy than he is the markets (as he should), so it seems highly unlikely that his course is going to change anytime soon unless there was far more carnage first, leaving us worse off overall.

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1 hour ago, proteus126 said:

High flyer shedding price rapidly during a broad correction that is specifically focused on tech.  Correction due to high valuations being hit due to slowing housing and rising rates.  Very normal.  The pain is enhanced on high beta stocks.

Give it a year.  Amazon is a great company.

I'd argue that what is happening to specific stocks such as AMZN isn't normal either, but I was specifically referring to bigger picture macro stuff. We are navigating through all sorts of things that we haven't experienced before.

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2 hours ago, culdeus said:

I wonder if we have any target fund people in here, I mean if you sell out down $3k in a 2060 fund and back down to a 2035 fund, it's kosher?  If you stay in the same provider they use most of the same internal funds.  

I've looked into stuff like this and (in my completely unprofessional, unbinding, legally non-culpable opinion) since in that one the stock/bond mixture should be quite different they're not equivalent, so it's fine.  

Personally I wouldn't flip out IVV and replace with SPY, but I just did sell IVV and replace it with DIA.  Different indices there, though they behave very similarly overall.  Also just flipped out some MTUM for QQQ - also different but largely the same.

 

1 hour ago, -OZ- said:

How much would I regret putting all of my Roth into Amazon? 

Fwiw, my Roth is around 10% of our retirement accounts.

I'm similarly concentrated into one stock at a similar level and I hate it.  That's my personal preference, though.  I keep wanting to get out of it and the markets keep pulling the rug out for that one, so just hold and collect dividends for now.

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Remove excess fat from turkey carcass

Submerge carcass in cold water, with the water covering about 2.5" above the carcass

Add 2-3 bay leafs per gallon of water

Quarter 1 onion and add that

add 3 pepper corns

Bring to boil on medium heat

simmer for at least 2 hours, ok to go longer

do not stir, but continue to skim the fat off the top

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7 minutes ago, Tiger Fan said:

Remove excess fat from turkey carcass

Submerge carcass in cold water, with the water covering about 2.5" above the carcass

Add 2-3 bay leafs per gallon of water

Quarter 1 onion and add that

add 3 pepper corns

Bring to boil on medium heat

simmer for at least 2 hours, ok to go longer

do not stir, but continue to skim the fat off the top

what's the ticker symbol here?

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On 10/10/2018 at 10:38 AM, St. Louis Bob said:

Sold more than half my portfolio 2-3 months ago. Pared down some stocks a couple of weeks ago and a little more today and done selling.  Now just looking to see where this ends up to start buying again.

Looking at a S&P about 100 points lower than it is now, 2540 or do, then doing some buying. 

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4 hours ago, stbugs said:

LOL, I dont think Bitcoin should be worth anything. I believe more in the software/VISA like companies than something that is basically the thing in the middle of the transaction.

I love Amazon as a company and I think we are seeing them focus on their earnings more and blowing those numbers up rather than just reinvesting with no eye on profit. I should have known better that we were fighting a headwind for the short term and dumped for a nice profit when I had the chance. Oh well, I think in a year I'll probably be up, so no need to panic on retirement money which was up quite nicely the past few years.

Amazon has REInvent next week in Vegas - I'd expect some news and announcements that will further cement their leadership in the cloud. Now the question becomes do you sell on the news?

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4 minutes ago, ffldrew said:

Amazon has REInvent next week in Vegas - I'd expect some news and announcements that will further cement their leadership in the cloud. Now the question becomes do you sell on the news?

Earnings were great for AMZN they are just getting slaughtered with everything else.  Buy more IMO.  I guess I should have waited a little longer but still got a 20% discount than a month or so ago.  Would love to buy more but overweight the way it is. 

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15 minutes ago, St. Louis Bob said:

Earnings were great for AMZN they are just getting slaughtered with everything else.  Buy more IMO.  I guess I should have waited a little longer but still got a 20% discount than a month or so ago.  Would love to buy more but overweight the way it is. 

I think an unspoken fear on Amazon is they're closing in on peak saturation in the retail space and the ecomm business is going to start to see slower growth. 

I'm taking a stab at it with that, as the selling has been heavy and you have to look for the reasons why.

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7 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

I think an unspoken fear on Amazon is they're closing in on peak saturation in the retail space and the ecomm business is going to start to see slower growth. 

I'm taking a stab at it with that, as the selling has been heavy and you have to look for the reasons why.

They only have 4% of the total retail sales market. 

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6 minutes ago, Ray Karpis said:

Noob question: I have money sitting in an account that is not yet invested....just rolled over. Should I go ahead and invest now with market down or should I wait for it to drop further?

 

I'm NOT a professional but most would suggest putting 1/3 in now.  Set two other price points based on the S&P,  5-10%+-,to make two more purchases with of a 1/3.  HTH

@General Malaise What say you? 

Edited by St. Louis Bob
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30 minutes ago, St. Louis Bob said:

Earnings were great for AMZN they are just getting slaughtered with everything else.  Buy more IMO.  I guess I should have waited a little longer but still got a 20% discount than a month or so ago.  Would love to buy more but overweight the way it is. 

Pretty much the opposite of this IMO. ;)

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Just now, St. Louis Bob said:

They only have 4% of the total retail sales market. 

I'm simply saying, they're getting dragged down with the market is a dangerous game that lulls an investor into a sense of security. The so called smart money sees something as they've been taken to the woodshed almost as bad as anyone in the last 6 weeks. 

Need to come up with a theory as to why they're getting beaten down so badly. 

Let me ask you this, if a consumer hasn't been buying on Amazon for the last few years, why are they going to start now? They've obviously avoided them for whatever reason, so where is that explosive growth we've seen over the last 5 years going to continue to come from? We've already priced that explosive growth into AWS and a chunk into advertising revenue. 

Look, I love Amazon as much as the next guy, I have no doubts about their business over 20 years, but for those that still like to pick individual stocks, you need to try and read the bear case as well and figure it out. Over the last few months I've posed the same question I just did to other Amazon bulls and the 4% number you quoted (a friend actually quoted 2% in their response to me, although I find that suspiciously low) has basically been the same response. That's great and all, but they aren't going to keep capturing marketshare if they don't grow their consumer base. If the market thinks their revenue is slowing again when they report Q4 numbers, I think there will be real pain here. It's a rich valuation, they need to justify it with massive continued growth. Coming up on the lower end of guidance with revenue pisses the market off, we've seen that since they reported. 

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9 minutes ago, Ray Karpis said:

Noob question: I have money sitting in an account that is not yet invested....just rolled over. Should I go ahead and invest now with market down or should I wait for it to drop further?

 

Depends on your time horizon - 20 years, buy SPY, DIA, QQQ and forget about it. 

I've been raising cash, I've got a lot to deploy. My plan is simple, I'm waiting to get in when we hit a bear market. When the indexes hit a peak to trough of 20%, at that point I start deploying it. 1/3 when that happens, then I intend on making scheduled emotionless monthly purchases for the following 18 months with the remaining 2/3. That's my plan.

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10 minutes ago, humpback said:

Pretty much the opposite of this IMO. ;)

I agree. If the earnings were excellent, they wouldn’t be at $1,500.

When they reported, there were constant whispers that they’re the next $1T company. I expect $5B in quarterly profit (a lot more tbh) from a company worth that much. I also expect to see continued massive growth, their YoY didn’t show it.

Market is spooked, was it a one off? Million dollar question right there.

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This is what I'm referencing:

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AMZN/amazon/revenue

Look at the green chart, see the deceleration in revenue growth Q1 (43% YoY) to Q2 (39% YoY) to Q3 (29%)

To me, this is why the market is spooked on Amazon, and it comes back to growing the consumer base. Those aren't trends for a company with a huge P/E. 

And the most damaging part of their earnings was their Q4 guidance; $66.5 - $72.5B. In Q4 of 2017 they did $60.5B - The low end of that range is 10% YoY revenue growth, the high end is 20%. You see the YoY trends taking shape:

Q1 - 43%

Q2 - 39%

Q3 - 29%

Q4 - 10 - 20%

That's the bear case in a nutshell. 

Bottom line IMO, they better hit at least the top end of that range when they report Q4. I think revenue is the most important thing here, and they need to show they can keep growing it at a solid pace. Their revenue starts growing at < 10% YoY, this becomes a $700-$800 stock.

Edited by fantasycurse42
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17 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

This is what I'm referencing:

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AMZN/amazon/revenue

Look at the green chart, see the deceleration in revenue growth Q1 (43% YoY) to Q2 (39% YoY) to Q3 (29%)

To me, this is why the market is spooked on Amazon, and it comes back to growing the consumer base. Those aren't trends for a company with a huge P/E. 

And the most damaging part of their earnings was their Q4 guidance; $66.5 - $72.5B. In Q4 of 2017 they did $60.5B - The low end of that range is 10% YoY revenue growth, the high end is 20%. You see the YoY trends taking shape:

Q1 - 43%

Q2 - 39%

Q3 - 29%

Q4 - 10 - 20%

That's the bear case in a nutshell. 

Bottom line IMO, they better hit at least the top end of that range when they report Q4. I think revenue is the most important thing here, and they need to show they can keep growing it at a solid pace. Their revenue starts growing at < 10% YoY, this becomes a $700-$800 stock.

$300 stock if that happens 

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if anyone is thinking of selling, it's too late. You will almost assuredly end up buying back in higher. The sell was at S&P 2880. Avi said sell if it breaks that and I did not. But I now see what they see. This can go to as low as S&P 2200 with violent rallies that are sold. Most ertailny can go to where FC42 said, ~2540.  

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1 hour ago, Ray Karpis said:

Noob question: I have money sitting in an account that is not yet invested....just rolled over. Should I go ahead and invest now with market down or should I wait for it to drop further?

 

You can't time the bottom so you should put some in now (say 25%)  but I'll tell you this, you will see 4-6% up days in the NAZ that will fool you into thinking you are missing the boat. Buy some on down days, not up days. I've looked back at the last beatdown in 2009 and that's what you get in up days and then more selling. You have already avoided 33% of the beatdown in the worst case scenario. Yes we are down 10% from highs (S&P) and can go down another 20%. You gotta look at it as saving 10%.

On 10/10/2008, there was a day the S&P went up over 9%. It was lower 12 days later. It rocketed 9.74% on the 27th, rallied for day up another 6.5% and lost it all by the 12th of November. Plummeted another 10 % from there after a 6% up day. Rocketed right back up the next day 10% but that wasn't the bottom. That was another 9% down 3.5 months later. Of course, that was the housing bubble.

Edited by lod001
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https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/20/trump-says-he-would-like-to-see-lower-fed-rates.html

You guys remember when Trump said that we were in a false economy propped up on low rates? Now we have a real economy with still historically low rates and he is getting angry!

Shocked the King of Debt wants lower interest rates. I made the same comment endlessly, you don't juice a late cycle economy, these politicians are such ####### morons! And these tax cuts really didn't help them at all. 

Should've gone with infrastructure first, and saved the tax cut bullets for when they were needed.

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1 hour ago, fantasycurse42 said:

 I made the same comment endlessly, you don't juice a late cycle economy

Not to comment on the politics as I want to keep this thread clean, but I did want to note that there is no definitive proof that we're late cycle.  There is no time frame bracket that demarcates a late cycle economy.  This touches on it.  There are earlier articles, but SA now blocks some of those with a paywall.

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On 11/20/2018 at 9:53 AM, culdeus said:

Tax loss harvesting is fun.  :unsure:

I do have to thank you for the timing of this note.  I harvested a good bit and, at least at present, that timing looks to have been very well chosen.   I owe you a :banned:.  

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6 hours ago, Sand said:

I do have to thank you for the timing of this note.  I harvested a good bit and, at least at present, that timing looks to have been very well chosen.   I owe you a :banned:.  

I mean at schwab you can go from a core ETF to a core mutual fund, and back again every 60 days.  When the market topped I trimmed off some equity, and was able to shave a bunch of short term gains this way.  I'm honestly not sure why I didn't fall in love with this earlier, just really the last 2-3 years I've been at it hardcore.  I royally ####ed up just doing a buy/hold on my kids college stuff too.  If their stuff flips red I'll be looking for a bread line.

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55 minutes ago, culdeus said:

I mean at schwab you can go from a core ETF to a core mutual fund, and back again every 60 days.  When the market topped I trimmed off some equity, and was able to shave a bunch of short term gains this way.  I'm honestly not sure why I didn't fall in love with this earlier, just really the last 2-3 years I've been at it hardcore.  I royally ####ed up just doing a buy/hold on my kids college stuff too.  If their stuff flips red I'll be looking for a bread line.

I use Fidelity and prefer to just stay with ETFs, so make sure to have "same but different" pair trades ready.  

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12 hours ago, culdeus said:

I mean at schwab you can go from a core ETF to a core mutual fund, and back again every 60 days.  When the market topped I trimmed off some equity, and was able to shave a bunch of short term gains this way.  I'm honestly not sure why I didn't fall in love with this earlier, just really the last 2-3 years I've been at it hardcore.  I royally ####ed up just doing a buy/hold on my kids college stuff too.  If their stuff flips red I'll be looking for a bread line.

I also use Schwab & have had $ in some of their ETFs over the years. Currently have cash just sitting & looking to get back in. May I ask which ETFs & Mutual Funds you like?

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42 minutes ago, NeverEnough said:

I also use Schwab & have had $ in some of their ETFs over the years. Currently have cash just sitting & looking to get back in. May I ask which ETFs & Mutual Funds you like?

The ones that charge like basically no fees.  SWPPX is slightly different than their Schwab 1000 index ETF, but not enough to lose sleep over.

I bounce between 

SCHX

VT

SCHB

SCHK

etc. etc.  

This time I cycled a lot more SCHV into my mix and SCHD.  That is a relatively new and more defensive structure for me.

In the past I bounce between vanguard and schwab funds, picking for all intents the same stock.  Lately I've just been staying in the Schwab ecosystem.

The one thing about harvesting that I really didn't get at first, is that you basically want to sell your whole portfolio monthly as long as the gains are there no matter what and cycle it. This way you are never building up such a large CapGain exposure that you can't deal with.  Schwab lets you sell, and cover so there isn't some gap.  Though it is fun for a short time to see some giant cash balance.  

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2 hours ago, culdeus said:

The ones that charge like basically no fees.  SWPPX is slightly different than their Schwab 1000 index ETF, but not enough to lose sleep over.

I bounce between 

SCHX

VT

SCHB

SCHK

etc. etc.  

This time I cycled a lot more SCHV into my mix and SCHD.  That is a relatively new and more defensive structure for me.

In the past I bounce between vanguard and schwab funds, picking for all intents the same stock.  Lately I've just been staying in the Schwab ecosystem.

The one thing about harvesting that I really didn't get at first, is that you basically want to sell your whole portfolio monthly as long as the gains are there no matter what and cycle it. This way you are never building up such a large CapGain exposure that you can't deal with.  Schwab lets you sell, and cover so there isn't some gap.  Though it is fun for a short time to see some giant cash balance.  

I’m confused by this especially with the difference in tax rates between short term gains (taxed as income, which is bad for me since we are dual income) and long term gains (taxed at lower rates) if held for a year.

If you don’t want to hold for a year, that’s one thing but selling the entire nut monthly means gains are always taxed as income. That’s around a 20% tax rate difference if you make a decent living. 

Edited by stbugs
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51 minutes ago, stbugs said:

I’m confused by this especially with the difference in tax rates between short term gains (taxed as income, which is bad for me since we are dual income) and long term gains (taxed at lower rates) if held for a year.

If you don’t want to hold for a year, that’s one thing but selling the entire nut monthly means gains are always taxed as income. That’s around a 20% tax rate difference if you make a decent living. 

Same here. Can you please explain? Seems like selling every month and re-buying something similar would be a horrible decision.

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22 minutes ago, Warrior said:

Same here. Can you please explain? Seems like selling every month and re-buying something similar would be a horrible decision.

I think I over complicated things.

Basically, I'm taking steps to match cap gains and cap losses in the short term.  Nothing fancy.  Just sell out of ETF and buy into like minded ETF.

I would prefer to take short term cap losses, to avoid long term gain taxes.  

Where gains do go long term I'll manage those as best I can, but there are worse problems to have.  In this world you will not take many long term capital losses.  I suppose it's possible, but not anticipated.  If that makes sense.

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52 minutes ago, culdeus said:

I think I over complicated things.

Basically, I'm taking steps to match cap gains and cap losses in the short term.  Nothing fancy.  Just sell out of ETF and buy into like minded ETF.

I would prefer to take short term cap losses, to avoid long term gain taxes.  

Where gains do go long term I'll manage those as best I can, but there are worse problems to have.  In this world you will not take many long term capital losses.  I suppose it's possible, but not anticipated.  If that makes sense.

I see. The selling monthly when you're down makes sense to me, since you're trying to offset your gains. However, the selling monthly when you're up is what doesn't make sense to me. You're just ensuring that you pay short-term income tax on the gains rather than waiting for long-term capital gains tax, which is much lower. Harvesting tax losses is nice, but the benefit is more than wiped out if you're realizing all of your gains as short-term to do it.

 

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1 hour ago, Warrior said:

I see. The selling monthly when you're down makes sense to me, since you're trying to offset your gains. However, the selling monthly when you're up is what doesn't make sense to me. You're just ensuring that you pay short-term income tax on the gains rather than waiting for long-term capital gains tax, which is much lower. Harvesting tax losses is nice, but the benefit is more than wiped out if you're realizing all of your gains as short-term to do it.

 

I'm avoiding short term gains at all cost except in a situation where there is a pretty catastrophic asset balance mix delta. As it turns out, most of the time a big equity/income mix comes with corresponding short term losses.  That's what makes this sort of magic.  

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