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Trying to time bottoms is very hard. If you believe in the company long term I feel this price is a very strong entry point long term. Set it and forget for a while. When it doubles....take your

I will make a wager. If this stock hits $420.69 before this earnings call on March 31st, I will pass out 100 FBG subscriptions to the gents in the stock thread.

sponks

 

3 hours ago, Walking Boot said:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-should-the-government-spend-to-save-a-life/

Government and people decide all the time what it's worth spending money on to prevent death, and what's not. You do, too, which is why you don't drive a tank and have a defibrillator in your house I bet. Cities decided what equipment is worth buying to put in ambulances, and which would be used too rarely to justify the cost... their money is better spent elsewhere than trying to save the one in a million person who needs some unusual treatment handy. 

Like those rare snake anti-venins that cost thousands of dollars a shot... No one walks around carrying those in case some rare snake bites them on their hike... It could happen to anyone at any time but most people just take the risk, knowing they'll die in a one in a hundred million chance vs spending ten thousand dollars to not have to worry. 

Anyway, the article linked lands at about $20 trillion as what the government should spend and take out of the economy to deal with corona virus. 

Excellent post, ty. :thumbup:

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I hope all of you keep this in mind when there is a mass shooting. Saving a few lives at the cost of gun sales, hunting licenses, and other economic factors is not worth it. 

A life is a life. 

BTW. Still sitting at 85% cash/bonds. My gut says we find a new bottom in the next year. Without a vaccine, we will just see number fluctuate. China is starting to see a pockets of outbreaks. Seeing that one region of 600k was put under lock down today. How anyone expects a place like NY to keep this under control without a vaccine is delusional. There is no alternative to subways and the vertical lifestyle there. And they are just 1 example. 

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3 hours ago, [icon] said:

Used mybookie to wager on a twitch streamed Xbox UFC Simulation fight last night. Had a $49 no risk bet.

Buddies and I all bet the same female fighter. She won as the dog. Now officially +$70 on betting on fake #### during a pandemic. 

It's bad out here folks. 

I got an e-mail from my local greyhound dog racing track that you can watch and bet on the races through something called "TVG".

No idea how it works or the legality of it.

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2 minutes ago, KCitons said:

I hope all of you keep this in mind when there is a mass shooting. Saving a few lives at the cost of gun sales, hunting licenses, and other economic factors is not worth it. 

A life is a life. 

BTW. Still sitting at 85% cash/bonds. My gut says we find a new bottom in the next year. Without a vaccine, we will just see number fluctuate. China is starting to see a pockets of outbreaks. Seeing that one region of 600k was put under lock down today. How anyone expects a place like NY to keep this under control without a vaccine is delusional. There is no alternative to subways and the vertical lifestyle there. And they are just 1 example. 

Can we get back to stocks.. this crap has a whole forum built for it.

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12 minutes ago, caustic said:

Two gambling opportunities I’ll be keeping an eye on this week: IMAX and EAT

I would expect the restaurants to see a quicker bounce than movie theatres.

Talking to family/friends/neighbors... everyone mentions how they can't wait to go to their favorite restaurant spots.

Haven't heard a soul say "wish I could go to the movies". 

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29 minutes ago, eoMMan said:

I got an e-mail from my local greyhound dog racing track that you can watch and bet on the races through something called "TVG".

No idea how it works or the legality of it.

TVG has been around for a long time for horse racing and I guess dog racing too.  Its a US company so just depends on your state law.

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Has anyone considered investing in vaping stocks?  They've had some hurdles to jump both in court and in the press.  But the science is clearly showing that vaping is significantly less harmful than smoking.  The vaping hospitalizations were completely due to black market vaping juice.  They did have to stop the production of flavored vape juice to appease the government because flavored vape was considered to be targeting minors.  It isn't possible to invest directly into market leader Juul.  But it is possible to invest in Altria which owns 35% of Juul.  But Juul is only a small part of Altria so it wouldn't be an effective way to invest in vaping.  Turning Point Brands is a more effective way to invest in vaping since it is the majority of their sales.  TPB also owns Zig Zag rolling papers.  TPB is trading at $20.83 with a 52 week high of $57.06.  Any thoughts?

Edited by Don Hutson
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Just to put it in writing again...

If there's a company you like, whose business shouldn't be overly impacted by the virus, though it is somewhat, the stock is selling at half the high but rose 10% for no real reason Friday, would you hesitate to buy it early this week? 

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14 minutes ago, -OZ- said:

Just to put it in writing again...

If there's a company you like, whose business shouldn't be overly impacted by the virus, though it is somewhat, the stock is selling at half the high but rose 10% for no real reason Friday, would you hesitate to buy it early this week? 

Friday was odd, was surprised in how much some of the stocks (banks, energy, and birck-and-motor businesses for example) were gaining on optimism.  Should be an interesting morning.  I cashed out a few things on Friday so looking into what to buy now...

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6 minutes ago, KCitons said:

Must have touched a nerve there. If you make everything about money and the economy, it's easy to justify deaths.

The reason you're even talking about stocks these days, is because of the risk of people dying. 

Maybe we could find a stock to take advantage of the run on of body bags?  Or coffins? 

We've been talking stocks here long before the virus.

Please take your agenda elsewhere.

 

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8 minutes ago, KCitons said:

Must have touched a nerve there. If you make everything about money and the economy, it's easy to justify deaths.

The reason you're even talking about stocks these days, is because of the risk of people dying. 

Maybe we could find a stock to take advantage of the run on of body bags?  Or coffins? 

Read the thread title again please.

You might even find your self awareness in the PSF.

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9 minutes ago, KCitons said:

Must have touched a nerve there. If you make everything about money and the economy, it's easy to justify deaths.

The reason you're even talking about stocks these days, is because of the risk of people dying. 

Maybe we could find a stock to take advantage of the run on of body bags?  Or coffins? 

You’re in a “stock thread” that is 481 pages long and you post this?  As others have said, there are plenty of other threads to discuss this issue.  No need to dilute this one (which has been very helpful to many of us).

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30 minutes ago, -OZ- said:

Just to put it in writing again...

If there's a company you like, whose business shouldn't be overly impacted by the virus, though it is somewhat, the stock is selling at half the high but rose 10% for no real reason Friday, would you hesitate to buy it early this week? 

I am no expert, but if you are buying and holding I don't see why not.

It might go lower short term, but if you feel good about it on the otherside... :shrug:

If you are trying to time it just right in the short term, I wish you luck.

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27 minutes ago, identikit said:

We've been talking stocks here long before the virus.

Please take your agenda elsewhere.

 

I think the fact that he’s 85% cash and bonds says a lot. Many people have posted in here about taking the high road yet subconsciously or consciously their motivation is the same. In this case he said he thinks (wants) the market will hit a new bottom to get back in lower. People say they don’t have an agenda but when you read between the lines they do.

It’s a stick thread that’s what we are discussing. Pretty sure I don’t think we want people to die. Heck a large percentage of this thread is about finding cures. It’s not wrong to hope for that and to hope to benefit from it.

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19 minutes ago, matuski said:

I am no expert, but if you are buying and holding I don't see why not.

It might go lower short term, but if you feel good about it on the otherside... :shrug:

If you are trying to time it just right in the short term, I wish you luck.

This would be buy and hold. Maker of my favorite shoes.

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1 hour ago, Don Hutson said:

Has anyone considered investing in vaping stocks?  They've had some hurdles to jump both in court and in the press.  But the science is clearly showing that vaping is significantly less harmful than smoking.  The vaping hospitalizations were completely due to black market vaping juice.  They did have to stop the production of flavored vape juice to appease the government because flavored vape was considered to be targeting minors.  It isn't possible to invest directly into market leader Juul.  But it is possible to invest in Altria which owns 35% of Juul.  But Juul is only a small part of Altria so it wouldn't be an effective way to invest in vaping.  Turning Point Brands is a more effective way to invest in vaping since it is the majority of their sales.  TPB also owns Zig Zag rolling papers.  TPB is trading at $20.83 with a 52 week high of $57.06.  Any thoughts?

Personally, I wouldn’t touch vaping stocks. It’s on it’s way to a father telling his teen “Id rather you smioke cigarettes than get into vaping”. 

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53 minutes ago, KCitons said:

Must have touched a nerve there. If you make everything about money and the economy, it's easy to justify deaths.

The reason you're even talking about stocks these days, is because of the risk of people dying. 

Maybe we could find a stock to take advantage of the run on of body bags?  Or coffins? 

Please troll less if you come back. 

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2 hours ago, matuski said:

I would expect the restaurants to see a quicker bounce than movie theatres.

Talking to family/friends/neighbors... everyone mentions how they can't wait to go to their favorite restaurant spots.

Haven't heard a soul say "wish I could go to the movies". 

Again with Restaurants it’s not just about getting open.  The entire food and beverage business (and it’s supporting vendors, and just like the auto industry there are entire billion dollar industries devoted to servicing restaurants) is built on volume.  Getting your restaurant open but having a severely repressed capacity, like say 50% which is even unlikely in the beginning, does nothing really to help your bottom line or keep your business afloat.  

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2 hours ago, caustic said:

Two gambling opportunities I’ll be keeping an eye on this week: IMAX and EAT

Thanks for sharing. I'm actually short both so will use those levels to hedge myself a bit. Will say, IMAX is only 25% off mid-February levels. They may have sold off a bit earlier due to their exposure in China. But at $15, you're looking at like 10% off those February levels. Know he is just charting and crazier things have happened bu IMAX 10% off seems crazy to me. 

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28 minutes ago, KCitons said:

Read my post again please. The first line may have been off topic. But, important to non the less. The last 3 lines were relevant to the topic of why the stock market is going to have issues recovering this year. Also points out the China (you know, the place where this all started) has locked down a rather large area due to a new outbreak. Seems to me you chose to focus on only one part of the post.

You didn't mention this to Todem or Moonlight? Good to see hypocrisy is still alive and well here.

Sorry I should have.  The last couple pages have been annoying to read and admittedly yours just set me off.  It wasn’t anything personal against you.

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16 minutes ago, matuski said:

Red Bottoms?

I'm not Chet ;)

Saucony. Plus Chacos. Wolverine worldwide. WWW. healthy PE below 14, 2% dividend. This is almost entirely just because I really like their products. 

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29 minutes ago, Jobber said:

Personally, I wouldn’t touch vaping stocks. It’s on it’s way to a father telling his teen “Id rather you smioke cigarettes than get into vaping”. 

I may have actually told my kids (they do neither) that I'd rather they smoke cigars or MJ (when legalized) than chemical crap. 

I do get why people like it, but I'll go natural generally. (I do none, but I'd smoke a cigar well before vaping)

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19 minutes ago, sporthenry said:

Thanks for sharing. I'm actually short both so will use those levels to hedge myself a bit. Will say, IMAX is only 25% off mid-February levels. They may have sold off a bit earlier due to their exposure in China. But at $15, you're looking at like 10% off those February levels. Know he is just charting and crazier things have happened bu IMAX 10% off seems crazy to me. 

Up 9% on Friday too.  Just don't see it.

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33 minutes ago, dkp993 said:

Again with Restaurants it’s not just about getting open.  The entire food and beverage business (and it’s supporting vendors, and just like the auto industry there are entire billion dollar industries devoted to servicing restaurants) is built on volume.  Getting your restaurant open but having a severely repressed capacity, like say 50% which is even unlikely in the beginning, does nothing really to help your bottom line or keep your business afloat.  

I get it.

I'm saying I think restaurants will see 50% long long before movie theatres.

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4 minutes ago, matuski said:

I get it.

I'm saying I think restaurants will see 50% long long before movie theatres.

Yeah I don’t know enough about the financial model of movie theaters to speak intelligently  on them. It would be just pure speculation on my part. But I do know the restaurant business inside and out and feel very comfortable speaking to that. 

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14 minutes ago, Slapdash said:

Up 9% on Friday too.  Just don't see it.

Yeah, think that was just the rally that things may open sooner due to GILD. Their revenue isn't as straightforward as theaters but AMC represents ~17% of revenue so think there was some concern over AMC filing. AMC was up 30% on Friday. Still think they're in trouble but given they have a Chinese billionaire behind them, they can probably limp along. But most of their business is derived from revenue from studios or theaters related to IMAX films so that will obviously get pushed. They do get some fixed fees from the leasing of their systems and maintenance. On the backend, I suppose you can make the argument that the IMAX experience can drive traffic and people will only go to theaters for high end experiences but theaters are likely to be cutting capex and not have money to spend. 

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2 hours ago, -OZ- said:

Just to put it in writing again...

If there's a company you like, whose business shouldn't be overly impacted by the virus, though it is somewhat, the stock is selling at half the high but rose 10% for no real reason Friday, would you hesitate to buy it early this week? 

Not a virus impacted company, but Russia/Saudi Arabia impacted is, Halliburton (HAL). A very unpopular company, but, they're not going away. 

Going in on 4/20/20 for a number of shares solely to take future dividends from. Also hold a decent amount of Marathon Oil (MRO) below $4 per share.

Been enjoying the weekend and have many more notes to add to the thread. :banned:

Going to spend the rest of the evening finding some penny stocks to burn some of my loot.

Best wishes to all 

:banned:

 

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1 hour ago, sporthenry said:

Thanks for sharing. I'm actually short both so will use those levels to hedge myself a bit. Will say, IMAX is only 25% off mid-February levels. They may have sold off a bit earlier due to their exposure in China. But at $15, you're looking at like 10% off those February levels. Know he is just charting and crazier things have happened bu IMAX 10% off seems crazy to me. 

Yeah, between the two I’m definitely more interested in EAT, which seems to offer way more upside. Keeping my eye on both just in case.

Another one I’ve seen discussed on twitter is WORK. I’m not a chart junkie at all but even I  can see the head and shoulders pattern developing here. It’s so textbook that there’s a good chance it doesn’t follow through, but we’ll see.

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6 minutes ago, caustic said:

 

Another one I’ve seen discussed on twitter is WORK. I’m not a chart junkie at all but even I  can see the head and shoulders pattern developing here. It’s so textbook that there’s a good chance it doesn’t follow through, but we’ll see.

There is a lot of buzz about Slack right now.  If you got it in the low 20s good for you, time to sell IMO.  When are they going to be profitable?

They have a huge competitor with much deeper pockets in Microsoft, I just don't see this one.

I even like the product, tech companies have embraced it, still not seeing buying all the upside.

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2 minutes ago, Jefferson the Caregiver said:

There is a lot of buzz about Slack right now.  If you got it in the low 20s good for you, time to sell IMO.  When are they going to be profitable?

They have a huge competitor with much deeper pockets in Microsoft, I just don't see this one.

I even like the product, tech companies have embraced it, still not seeing buying all the upside.

I agree, it’s certainly not something I’m interested in long term. Just keeping it on my watch list for a potential swing trade.

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25 minutes ago, JerseyToughGuys said:

WTI futures down again. Probably the only thing that is accurately tracking the real economy these days.

WTI down 20%, Brent down a bit, Louisiana Light up 30%.

Talk about freakin' loco.  :whoosh:

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20 minutes ago, sporthenry said:

Knew I should have shorted USO. Now I just have to hope the tankers shoot up sooner than later because don't really want to be in them too long. 

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4337417-uso-strongly-decline-due-to-roll-yield

I actually bought a bunch of it a few weeks back with a close stop (which hit).  I thought it would rebound up.  Which it did, now tanked.  

Not sure whether I should be happy or sad.  

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6 hours ago, eoMMan said:

I got an e-mail from my local greyhound dog racing track that you can watch and bet on the races through something called "TVG".

No idea how it works or the legality of it.

Television games network. Legit. Owned by Betfair I think. Depends on state law. As an example can’t wager in TX.   Many competitors, including DRF Bets, which is from Daily Racing Form/Xpressbets

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A Country fried steak with mashed potatoes and corn from Denny’s down the street is $14.99

A barrel (42 gallons) of crude oil Pumped out of the desert of Saudi Arabia & put on a boat and shipped to the USA and delivered to a holding facility by skilled labor with osha approved equipment and insured up the Wazzu for accidents to people and the environment...... traded for $14.47.

 

 

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6 minutes ago, The Lost One said:

Can't underestimate a pile of mashed taters and sweet corn pulling up along side dinner country fried steak!  Don't be so crude. 

No the oil is crude, not the steak.

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38 minutes ago, The Ref said:

A Country fried steak with mashed potatoes and corn from Denny’s down the street is $14.99

A barrel (42 gallons) of crude oil Pumped out of the desert of Saudi Arabia & put on a boat and shipped to the USA and delivered to a holding facility by skilled labor with osha approved equipment and insured up the Wazzu for accidents to people and the environment...... traded for $14.47.

 

 

https://www.thecarycompany.com/55-gallons-steel-drum-26wr57

The barrel without the lid costs more.

The good thing about investing in oil is that I'm saving more in monthly gas expenses than I'm losing on the investment.

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2 hours ago, sporthenry said:

Knew I should have shorted USO. Now I just have to hope the tankers shoot up sooner than later because don't really want to be in them too long. 

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4337417-uso-strongly-decline-due-to-roll-yield

I tagged along with you on the tankers and am plus +10%.  Thank you!  When are you looking to exit?

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43 minutes ago, The Ref said:
49 minutes ago, The Lost One said:

Can't underestimate a pile of mashed taters and sweet corn pulling up along side dinner country fried steak!  Don't be so crude. 

No the oil is crude, not the steak.

If it's from Denny's, is it really steak?

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