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Stock Thread (18 Viewers)

Is anyone else keeping an eye on TDOC? the company has legs. Wish I would have invested a while ago (of course) but the concept is very sound - integrated telehealth, sharing of health information among providers. Clearly there's a big need for it and they need to maintain vigilant security, but the service is going to be even bigger in the future. 

It's apparently recession proof (almost) and has tripled this year. No eatings yet, it's losing money as it grows. But man, it can get huge. Only $14B market cap right now, should continue to grow.

 
Walking Boot said:
I don't think we can hold out for a vaccine. That doesn't seem reasonable. Corona viruses have been around for a long, long time and we've never developed a vaccine. We don't have one for colds. The one for the flu is only like 30% effective.

What we need is a treatment (lebroninade, I'm looking at you) that stops this from being fatal. Get symptoms, get a couple of shots, stay home a week and be miserable... and then go back about your life. The CDC will monitor outbreaks, governments will keep an eye on things... the virus might come back in a wave here and there... but if we can treat it in a way that turns it into a manageable disease that doesn't overwhelm hospitals, if we can move it into "a really bad flu" that doesn't kill people like it is now, we'll be back to something much closer than "normal". It just seems to me that that's the more likely scenario than assuming some vaccine is going to magically appear where one never has before.
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Once a viable treatment has been proven and tested, then we can start resuming. I think that's 6 months out at a minimum, and there will be a lot of deaths in the interim.

I kind of agree with your vaccine take, but hold out hope and try to remain optimistic. 

 
We don’t need a vaccine that is 100% fullproof. We just need something to quell the panic. For Pete’s sake, don’t publish the efficacy rate. 

 
General Malaise said:
I'm just settling in - late night last night.  What I'm gathering is that the US Gov said it will incentivize domestic miners of uranium and rare earths to increase production so we don't have to rely on foreign imports. It's a nice sentiment, but consumers of these materials aren't going to just buy more expensive material to be patriotic.  It's great that the US is thinking about stockpiling critical metals, but the reality is that anytime prices rise, the US sells its stockpile to raise cash.  I don't know how this will be any different.

I'll get my head around it a little more as my brain clears some of the fog out.  I'm still skeptical that uranium has entered a new bull market but that's a skepticism that's been sharpened and biased by years of ball kicking.  Fukushima really  Fuked this metal.
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Thanks for giving a different POV on U. I maybe have only been hearing one side. I’ve definitely not heard of Japan having a big supply. Everything I see talks about multi-baggers and the bull market is here. But no one really knows anything for sure in the stock market. 

 
I just opened my first Fidelity account for stocks. Put in 10,000, based on thread and research was thinking:

AMZN - 5000

DIS - 2500

BA - 2500

No immediate or short term need for money. Thoughts??

 
NREC34 said:
Thanks for giving a different POV on U. I maybe have only been hearing one side. I’ve definitely not heard of Japan having a big supply. Everything I see talks about multi-baggers and the bull market is here. But no one really knows anything for sure in the stock market. 
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It's one thing to disrupt supply because there was a flooding in a mine or some other act of god that shuts it down.  But this supply disruption isn't going to have a huge impact.  Japanese inventory is plentiful, but it's also held as collateral on their debt obligations so it won't just flood the market unless prices REALLY jump, but it's there.  It's still an overhang.  We could see some higher uranium prices, but we're not going to see $100/Lb like we did in 2007.  That was a perfect storm of producers who forward sold, flooding at Cigar Lake and plant operators who had grown complacent with prices at $19/Lb and hadn't stocked their own inventory.  They were forced to buy in the spot market which probably won't happen again.  These are almost always contracts to buy at a fixed price.  

I'm dubious about another big old bull in this one, but I've got my ears on the ground.

 
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pmedina said:
I just opened my first Fidelity account for stocks. Put in 10,000, based on thread and research was thinking:

AMZN - 5000

DIS - 2500

BA - 2500

No immediate or short term need for money. Thoughts??
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Or you could put it all on CYDY?

J/k, don't do that. Those are excellent choices. Just bought DIS and BA myself yesterday. I do like AMZN but it is pretty fairly valued right now and I prefer to buy undervalued. Of course, it may go the way of MSFT or APPL and always be fairly to over valued. 

 
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ConstruxBoy said:
Or you could put it all on CYDY?

J/k, don't do that. Those are excellent choices. Just bought DIS and BA myself yesterday. I do like AMZN but it is pretty fairly valued right now and I prefer to buy undervalued. Of course, it may go the way of MSFT or APPL and always be fairly to over valued. 
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I picked up DIS and AAPL on Tuesday.  Their streaming businesses are going to be a big driver going forward.

 
Slapdash said:
I picked up DIS and AAPL on Tuesday.  Their streaming businesses are going to be a big driver going forward.
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AAPL has been a service company who provides hardware to support their delivery system for a while now.  They'll take a hit for a bit, but while folks stick around on older devices, the demand will be ready and waiting when things pick back up for a surge in hardware upgrade purchases.  I've been a huge apple booster for a while, but haven't seen anything at all to diminish their long term position.

 
sporthenry said:
Yeah, think it's the contango trade reversing a bit. As differential between front month and outer months compress, the value of the tanker declines. Was wondering what was dragging my stuff down but I do look at it as a bit of a hedge on this market anyways. Should be money good but will go up more if market declines. 

I'm still up teens. Debating whether I chase the recent pull back. I just don't think contango has been figured out. What happens when they have to take possession of oil next month? Demand won't be back. Storage isn't unlimited. Supply is the big unknown.  
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I have resigned to hold this until September (I think). Feels like we are only in the second inning of the trade the more I read.

 
I gotta read more about the Remdesivir flop as I know other studies are coming next month, but I think Gilead could be a smooth ride to $65 from here. More reading on it and I'll come to a conclusion by tomorrow. 

ETA:

I mean we all saw the Chicago article, but I'm still foggy on the details, plus there was no placebo. Tough to put that much stock in China and WHO right now; https://www.ft.com/content/0a4872d1-4cac-4040-846f-ce32daa09d99

Supposedly no real improvements for 237 patients, IDK. If the drug is a flop, GILD is right back to $65.

 
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-OZ- said:
Is anyone else keeping an eye on TDOC? the company has legs. Wish I would have invested a while ago (of course) but the concept is very sound - integrated telehealth, sharing of health information among providers. Clearly there's a big need for it and they need to maintain vigilant security, but the service is going to be even bigger in the future. 

It's apparently recession proof (almost) and has tripled this year. No eatings yet, it's losing money as it grows. But man, it can get huge. Only $14B market cap right now, should continue to grow.
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So mad I didn’t buy that in October. Up on everything I bought then and TDOC was at 60 or 65. I bought ZM so hit on one but I can’t believe I didn’t just buy both. Plenty of cash. Even recall seeing it at 95 after it ran well up over 100 and didn’t pull the trigger. Definitely my most frustrating non move lately. Even not buying CYDY early early (bought at $1) wasn’t frustrating because it was a FBG Rex not something I wanted to buy and just picked other stuff and again had more than enough cash.

 
JerseyToughGuys said:
I have resigned to hold this until September (I think). Feels like we are only in the second inning of the trade the more I read.
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Yeah, I just nibbled on some more. Rather be in this than doing something with USO. TK/TNK CEO was just on CNBC, believe he said they'd be pushing $800mn in FCF per quarter at current rates. Market cap isn't even $800k, EV of ~$2bn. Pretty crazy.

 
I gambled a little on DECN after it fell back to 31 cents today.    

Market negative now?

DFS currently my biggest holding.

So I have decided that I am just never going to have a grasp on individual stocks.  I have the aptitude but not the time nor motivation.  Oh well.  Gonna index my way to retiring a millionare.

However, that might take a little longer now that my employer has cut 403b matches till at least january.

 
sporthenry said:
Yeah, I just nibbled on some more. Rather be in this than doing something with USO. TK/TNK CEO was just on CNBC, believe he said they'd be pushing $800mn in FCF per quarter at current rates. Market cap isn't even $800k, EV of ~$2bn. Pretty crazy.
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I bought an initial basket of 11 companies. It's been interesting to see them move asymmetrically. I would love to trim that back to 5 but I don't want to end up betting on the wrong horse when the entire industry is shady af.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
I gotta read more about the Remdesivir flop as I know other studies are coming next month, but I think Gilead could be a smooth ride to $65 from here. More reading on it and I'll come to a conclusion by tomorrow. 
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I mean this was just data from the China study that was already cancelled. Not a biotech analyst but had the pleasure/pain of trying to analyze pharma trials before. This seems particularly troubling "the Chinese trial showed remdesivir did not improve patients’ condition or reduce pathogen’s presence in the bloodstream."

Based off my understanding of this drug, it could really only help in early or in mild to moderate patients. So not sure how many patients were in that situation. But even if it's effective in those situations, I'm not sure how helpful that will be. Better than nothing but don't think that will be enough to just go back to normal.

 
sporthenry said:
Yeah, think it's the contango trade reversing a bit. As differential between front month and outer months compress, the value of the tanker declines. Was wondering what was dragging my stuff down but I do look at it as a bit of a hedge on this market anyways. Should be money good but will go up more if market declines. 

I'm still up teens. Debating whether I chase the recent pull back. I just don't think contango has been figured out. What happens when they have to take possession of oil next month? Demand won't be back. Storage isn't unlimited. Supply is the big unknown.  
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On the money. Tankers are inherently very volatile holdings throughout the trading day. Need an iron stomach especially as it trades.

From my vantage point, oil action is likely due to Trump's hawkish comments re: Iran which have pushed up oil prices, that reduced the contango trade a bit. However, when WTI physical barrels are due for pickup in a month, actual physical supply constraints will likely drive down the June WTI price unless supply meets demand.

Bearish case against tankers right now - conflict in the Middle East and/or counterparty risk where the refineries/oil traders are unable to pay our TANKERZ.

During the dip, I added to $STNG and $DSSI which are exposed to the clean tanker market. Huge boat constraints which is placing refineries in a bind.

Oil glut

 
commoncents said:
On the money. Tankers are inherently very volatile holdings throughout the trading day. Need an iron stomach especially as it trades.

From my vantage point, oil action is likely due to Trump's hawkish comments re: Iran which have pushed up oil prices, that reduced the contango trade a bit. However, when WTI physical barrels are due for pickup in a month, actual physical supply constraints will likely drive down the June WTI price unless supply meets demand.

Bearish case against tankers right now - conflict in the Middle East and/or counterparty risk where the refineries/oil traders are unable to pay our TANKERZ.

During the dip, I added to $STNG and $DSSI which are exposed to the clean tanker market. Huge boat constraints which is placing refineries in a bind.

Oil glut
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something like this would work to tighten up my basket a little. Good stuff. 

 
Capella said:
“By accident” lol
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No ####. Same site that pumped and dumped and now is shorting. Selfishly, hoping this opens the door for CYDY. Not selfishly I just want something to really work and selfishly again I want it to be LeBronLemonade.

 
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chet said:
It's coming.  Patience.
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Just want to give one more shout out to chet. I've been buying and selling CYDY (mostly holding, though) since October when it was sub-30 cents. Sitting on 7000 shares at a cost basis of zero. That's a cool (unrealized) gain of almost 20 grand. I thought it could never get any better than Mansion (that was either worth $1000 or $2000, I don't recall) and it more than makes up for the cobalt disaster. You're the man, chet.

 
I'm gonna take a flyer on a few GILD puts here. Especially as shorts from the high $80's cover. They were a $65 stock before CV19, and without any material benefit from it, they're still a $65 stock.

 
lakerstan said:
This is like watching the show "Billions" and Dollar Bill says, "I am not uncertain".
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Just so there's no misunderstanding.  I wrote my message based on the shareholder meeting last Friday where Dr. Lalezari told everyone that they're working on a paper that will change how the world understands COVID-19.  All public info.

 
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