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Stock Thread (22 Viewers)

General Malaise said:
Capella said:
They would significantly have to downsize their building space. What you just described is a mega-expensive food truck. 
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No question and I think the owners of these leased building spaces have to be nervous.
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Ghost kitchens are already a thing in San Francisco, and I'm assuming in other big cities as well, that are solely for food delivery.  They look like a restaurant online or in Yelp, but there's no actual restaurant to visit.

The concept of ghost kitchens is not original to Reef. Also known as cloud, virtual and dark kitchens, they are restaurants without dining rooms, designed to serve delivery orders. Travis Kalanick, the co-founder and former CEO of Uber, has backed CloudKitchens, a Los Angeles startup, which is building commissary kitchens to serve such restaurants; at least one of his kitchens already operates on Morris Street, a South of Market alley.
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PennState-JD said:
That is not how it works everywhere.  Our company was given a target number to reduce labor.  The choices were difficult and there is every intent to bring people back once revenue returns.  For publicly traded companies, there is pressure to show investors that steps are being  taken.  And on top of that, people who weren’t furloughed are putting in unsustainable levels of work making up for a short staff.  I think lots of companies are in a similar situation. 
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I don't want to turn this into an anecdotal thing. But how many of those jobs come back? Even if we get a V-shaped recovery, all these jobs aren't coming back. Obviously depends on the industry but this is what happens. People learn to run things more efficiently. How many people did you wonder what they really did? No need to fire them but when you furlough them and nothing changes, no reason to bring them back. Yes, will cause existing folks to work more. The capitalism paradigm. Do more with less. Or you cut out processes and departments and realize you can make do without them. 

Again, can't speak to your specific situation and each one is different. Not saying everyone has nefarious intentions but some of those jobs won't come back. And that's assuming we're not in a depression. 

 
Walking Boot said:
You would have to pay me one hell of a premium to get me to move out of my shelter-in-place house right now, then double it to make me go on home tours looking for somewhere else to live. Housing will be tight for a while. 
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It would have to be tight in the first place to be tight for a while.

 
-OZ- said:
That's super surprising given our apparent love of debt. 
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Many lenders have stopped doing cash or refinances or have increased the points drastically after recent guidance from the GSEs on the cost to the originator if they go into forbearance. 

Many companies have gotten drastically stricter on guidelines, especially for government loans and low credit scores, due to the risk of forbearance. 

In "normal" recessions, home prices remain relatively stable due to the drop in interest rates which makes buying more appealing for those still working, but this doesn't appear to be a "normal" recession.

I'm not predicting a collapse but I think we'll certainly see a decrease in the first time home buyer market over the next year or so.

 
CR69 said:
Many lenders have stopped doing cash or refinances or have increased the points drastically after recent guidance from the GSEs on the cost to the originator if they go into forbearance. 

Many companies have gotten drastically stricter on guidelines, especially for government loans and low credit scores, due to the risk of forbearance. 

In "normal" recessions, home prices remain relatively stable due to the drop in interest rates which makes buying more appealing for those still working, but this doesn't appear to be a "normal" recession.

I'm not predicting a collapse but I think we'll certainly see a decrease in the first time home buyer market over the next year or so.
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:goodposting:

This is where I'm at, especially the bolded. 

 
Bob Sacamano said:
You planning to go to Vegas this year?
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I had a flight for tomorrow. I canceled it this morning.  :kicksrock:

The plan was to enter the Circa Millions football contest, but we can't be sure of a season, so I don't know. The new place downtown, Circa, is still being built for a December opening date, which I have been planning around for two years. Hoarding airline miles, staying and playing at the sister properties...all quite possibly for naught. I'm ridiculous.

 
BYND crushing it today. Up almost 25%. I got in around 100 a week or so ago, so it was relatively flat until now. I still think there is ample upside to go. They beat revenues and EPS in a big way yesterday. They're lowering prices in the attempt to increase sales to grocery stores and club warehouses, looking to take a permanent bite out of the beef industry market share, due to all of their supply chain issues. I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of non-vegan, normal meat eaters make the switch and don't go back - if the price is the same or lower, and it tastes almost as good, and there is the appearance of healthier (even though we still don't know a lot of what is in this plant based stuff.

 
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BassNBrew said:
Brutal day.  Down 1.5% to the S&P.
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I'm going to have to dig in to DHT a little more. At these levels, we're supported by the NAV. It doesn't seem to budge a lot on near-term earnings so I'm thinking we get those dividends while NAV doesn't change. DHT should be paying out ~$1+ over next two quarters and if the NAV is at $6, that is 10% upside just to $7. They don't seem rational so will be interesting to see what the June oil contract settles at. I have to think the people putting oil in these tankers know the long-term inventory outlook and the day to day changes don't impact their thinking that much but that is me speculating. Based on my view of the rest of the market, I don't have a ton of other places to put money to work so I'm staying. Hopefully this is the last of us dumb retail investors getting out.

 
CR69 said:
.

I'm not predicting a collapse but I think we'll certainly see a decrease in the first time home buyer market over the next year or so.
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Could definitely happen. 

I'm not concerned, but then I'm not moving. Your point is also a reason HD and LOW are doing well. 

 
NajehHejan said:
BYND crushing it today. Up almost 25%. I got in around 100 a week or so ago, so it was relatively flat until now. I still think there is ample upside to go. They beat revenues and EPS in a big way yesterday. They're lowering prices in the attempt to increase sales to grocery stores and club warehouses, looking to take a permanent bite out of the beef industry market share, due to all of their supply chain issues. I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of non-vegan, normal meat eaters make the switch and don't go back - if the price is the same or lower, and it tastes almost as good, and there is the appearance of healthier (even though we still don't know a lot of what is in this plant based stuff.
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Isn't the sodium content in these alarmingly high or am I wrong?  

 
NajehHejan said:
The Beyond Burger has 380 mg of sodium, 16% of the total recommended daily limit.

Not too shabby 
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Yeah, that's not bad, but wow, check this out:

One particular concern about faux beef is the sodium content, as pointed out by Dr. Andrew Weil, an integrative medicine doctor and creator of the praised Anti-Inflammatory Diet. One version of the Impossible Burger -- the Impossible Whopper at Burger King -- contains 1,240 milligrams of sodium, which is even more than what's in a regular Whopper. 
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That's not very good.  One thing I've read is that you want to avoid inflammation as much as possible with the thread of Covid19.  I doubt that fear is in the market place for people who buy these, but it's something worth noting.  

 
What are folks investing in with a 6-7 year time horizon for college tuition starting up? I of course want to grow the money, but am most concerned with capital preservation. Would a lazy man's portfolio of 50% VTI and 50% BND do the trick? I definitely don't want to pick individual stocks for college investing. 

ETA - currently in cash

 
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kevzilla said:
I had a flight for tomorrow. I canceled it this morning.  :kicksrock:

The plan was to enter the Circa Millions football contest, but we can't be sure of a season, so I don't know. The new place downtown, Circa, is still being built for a December opening date, which I have been planning around for two years. Hoarding airline miles, staying and playing at the sister properties...all quite possibly for naught. I'm ridiculous.
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Living in Vegas, I've driven down the strip a couple times.  It is a ghost town and such a surreal site.

 
kevzilla said:
I had a flight for tomorrow. I canceled it this morning.  :kicksrock:

The plan was to enter the Circa Millions football contest, but we can't be sure of a season, so I don't know. The new place downtown, Circa, is still being built for a December opening date, which I have been planning around for two years. Hoarding airline miles, staying and playing at the sister properties...all quite possibly for naught. I'm ridiculous.
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Wow, hadn't heard about Circa. Looks cool, especially the pool with the giant screen.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
Disagree wholeheartedly. Unlike our previous recession, housing is a defensive position right now, imo. At most, 5% peak to trough, 2006 to 2012 was 27%. 

Obviously some regions will be worse than others, but we aren't remotely close to a real estate collapse, imo. 
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Yeah, people seem to think housing is through the roof and it’s not true. I sold my house in VA near the peak (2006) and bought my house in NC about the peak as well. My house is now worth about what it was, probably a little bit more. I’ve been looking at Hilton Head for retirement say 5-10 years down the road and most houses that haven’t been gutted are in the same boat. Most houses aren’t worth much more than what they were near the start of the bull run. The financial crisis hammered housing and in the 2010-2012 years most houses lost a ton of value. While there has been run up recently we are still basically flat for the entire bull market. Stocks, however are way higher in the part 10 years or at least the leadership is. 

 
stbugs said:
Yeah, people seem to think housing is through the roof and it’s not true. I sold my house in VA near the peak (2006) and bought my house in NC about the peak as well. My house is now worth about what it was, probably a little bit more. I’ve been looking at Hilton Head for retirement say 5-10 years down the road and most houses that haven’t been gutted are in the same boat. Most houses aren’t worth much more than what they were near the start of the bull run. The financial crisis hammered housing and in the 2010-2012 years most houses lost a ton of value. While there has been run up recently we are still basically flat for the entire bull market. Stocks, however are way higher in the part 10 years or at least the leadership is. 
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It's quite a bit different out west.  My house has nearly doubled since we bought it in 2015 (using the appraisal for our refi).  

 
The housing market will be a mixed bag in my opinion.   I see a lot of companies transitioning to more work from home models--as it protects them from the liability of future business interruptions--and it allows them to abandon the costs of having giant headquarters (some of which are in amazingly expensive areas).  Because of this--people are not restricted by being forced to live in these really expensive markets--and I think a lot of them will trade off living in a tiny place in  a premium location for a larger home in an area where the costs of living are lower.  Because of this--I think you'll see moderate drops in certain areas-- but you'll probalby see some moderate gains in areas where the weather is not super extreme, the cost of living is low to moderate--and you can get a house with a decent size lot for a price that is reasonable.  

The higher unemployment rate should make for more renters--so you should have some investment buyers coming in as well.  I own properties in Vegas--which is really struggling now--but I have to say--if the housing market takes a big hit out there--I'd be looking to acquire and not sell.  

 
NajehHejan said:
The Beyond Burger has 380 mg of sodium, 16% of the total recommended daily limit.

Not too shabby 
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That's not including fries, so higher than I'd like. 

NajehHejan said:
What are folks investing in with a 6-7 year time horizon for college tuition starting up? I of course want to grow the money, but am most concerned with capital preservation. Would a lazy man's portfolio of 50% VTI and 50% BND do the trick? I definitely don't want to pick individual stocks for college investing. 

ETA - currently in cash
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It would work. 

My soon to be 7th grader is 40% VTI, 30% BND, 30% OHI (a REIT, could replace with VNQ if you prefer).

4th grader is 100% Disney.  🏳️

 
Was thinking about BLMN and DKNG yesterday and, as per typical, chose the wrong one.  DKNG is a freaking rocket ship.  Dagnabit.

 
Getzlaf15 said:
I'm getting twice the normal leads and had a FTHB fill out an app today     :shrug:

Increasing prices are making ot harder for them though.
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I haven't noticed a drop in activity on our end, yet. We have a ton of people applying that are furloughed and are expected to go back to work but if those furloughs become layoffs...

I just don't see how (in some markets) there won't be a drop in FTHB activity if the service, restaurant and hospitality industries take a while to recover. 

 
General Malaise said:
It's quite a bit different out west.  My house has nearly doubled since we bought it in 2015 (using the appraisal for our refi).  
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What was the price before the financial crisis? I’m talking about more than 10 years, back to 2005/2006. 2015 to 2020 was during the recovery from the bottom which was a couple years after the financial crisis. 2005/2006 was the peak in many places because it was a bit of a bubble and that was also when all the funny stuff was going on. My house has appreciated a bunch since 2012 or 2013ish, but that was also after it lost a chunk of value from when I bought it. Looking back it’s back to a bit above where we bought it. I’d be shocked if your purchase price in 2015 wasn’t a decent chunk below the bubble prices pre-Financial Crisis. Some locals may be crazy but even NYC and DC (where I was) went through the same peak to trough to current peak.

 
stbugs said:
What was the price before the financial crisis? I’m talking about more than 10 years, back to 2005/2006. 2015 to 2020 was during the recovery from the bottom which was a couple years after the financial crisis. 2005/2006 was the peak in many places because it was a bit of a bubble and that was also when all the funny stuff was going on. My house has appreciated a bunch since 2012 or 2013ish, but that was also after it lost a chunk of value from when I bought it. Looking back it’s back to a bit above where we bought it. I’d be shocked if your purchase price in 2015 wasn’t a decent chunk below the bubble prices pre-Financial Crisis. Some locals may be crazy but even NYC and DC (where I was) went through the same peak to trough to current peak.
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I'd have to go back and look.  Probably valued at right around where I purchased it, maybe a little less.  Now, keep in mind we put $150K worth of work into it, so that's definitely helped move the valuation.  

 
Lyft.

- reported losses of $398.1 million, and revenue of $955.7 million for Q1 2020.

- Heading into Q2, Lyft is facing a new lawsuit in the state of California

- Loss per share: $1.31, street expected loss of .62 per share

UP 17% afterhours!   Naturally!   :shrug:

 
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Sputnikv8 said:
Lyft.

- reported losses of $398.1 million, and revenue of $955.7 million for Q1 2020.

- Heading into Q2, Lyft is facing a new lawsuit in the state of California

- Loss per share: $1.31, street expected loss of .62 per share

UP 17% afterhours!   Naturally!   :shrug:
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Who would buy this stock now as biggest users of these services are people in cities which will open a lot slower.  

 
Looks like SQ may get pummeled on earnings and this one should stick.  Expecting another downturn for them.  Such a streaky stock and when the streak ends it tends to get ugly for a while.

 
Being a tanker holder is frustrating. I can understand why people would cut bait. That being said, I am holding (and may become a bag holder).

After the $STNG call, I am bullish product tanker companies and $STNG in particular. They guided very well for Q2 and provided visibility into Q3. Prior to earnings, my position weights favored product vs. crude. Depending on how the $EURN and $FRO earnings go, I may continue that trend.

 
General Malaise said:
I'd have to go back and look.  Probably valued at right around where I purchased it, maybe a little less.  Now, keep in mind we put $150K worth of work into it, so that's definitely helped move the valuation.  
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Gotcha. FC posted the overall housing numbers. Point was that even though it seems like housing prices have gone up a lot the past 5/6/7 years, it hasn't if you look back to the peak almost 15 years ago. If you compare the stock market (even with the Financial Crisis and the CV crisis) and the peak of the housing bubble (2005/2006) to now, house prices are sort of stagnant taking inflation into account whereas the stock market is close to triple. Thinking that there is a housing bubble now isn't true long term, it only looks inflated if you only go back to the bottom. If you go back to the bottom of the stock market, it's quadrupled.

 
commoncents said:
Being a tanker holder is frustrating. I can understand why people would cut bait. That being said, I am holding (and may become a bag holder).

After the $STNG call, I am bullish product tanker companies and $STNG in particular. They guided very well for Q2 and provided visibility into Q3. Prior to earnings, my position weights favored product vs. crude. Depending on how the $EURN and $FRO earnings go, I may continue that trend.
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literally going down with the ship...

🚢

 
Jefferson the Caregiver said:
Looks like SQ may get pummeled on earnings and this one should stick.  Expecting another downturn for them.  Such a streaky stock and when the streak ends it tends to get ugly for a while.
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I owned SQ in early 2018, when I first dabbled in the stock market. It wasn't the right stock to buy. I think I sold it after it came back and broke even but didn't seem like it would go anywhere. I believe it's right about where i sold it. I wouldn't buy it again.

That said TWLO had a damn good earnings report. Up over 20%, so might be another decent day for me tomorrow. I wish I hadn't sold some stuff to build up some more cash. I was up nicely today, would have been up even more. Still worried, but the stocks I own are mostly all up over their February highs and have been doing well revenue/earnings wise.

I can’t find AYX’s earnings but they are down 10%+ so opposite TWLO. Oh well, all over the place.

 
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sporthenry said:
I do think the demand side of that isn't sustainable. People will want to eat out when it's safe enough and takeouts won't last forever. But between fear of servers and what not, could accelerate the automation side of stuff. I don't need a server to screw up my order or forget to take it. Order it in an ipad. Heck, I'll even go to the counter and pick it up. 
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I am trying to wrap my head around a "eat out" restaurant business model that accounts for 50% capacity reduction. Going to see lots of restaurants close as they attempt to reopen and find out that they can't pay the bills when their margin is obliterated by social distancing restrictions. 

Also trying to decide if I am willing to pay a premium for a dine in experience when I have to wear a mask and essentially sit in some weird form of isolation. 

And bars? How the heck are they going to work. 

 
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