Almost worst when you look at the chart as 3 of the other 4 are very risky stocks just happen to have prices over $1. Outside of Nio, these are all very speculative stocks. Seems like a bat signal for rough seas ahead.
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
Stock Thread (9 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
cosjobs
Footballguy
cosjobs
Footballguy
No idea. Look at the MU action before and after announcing earnings. No rhyme or reason.
tonysmiles
Footballguy
I am thinking of tailing this based on the 90 million shares traded. What was your decision to jump in on this stock.Big League Chew said:
I jumped into CTRM (Castor Maritime) for a 1K shares at .30 thinking of bringint it to 5K shares in the morning.
I also jumped into NAKD (Naked Brand Group) at .52 for 1K shares.
Those are my pennies I jumped in this week. Also still holding 100K shares of BLPG
Risky and frothy, heck yes, speculative with no revenue, waiting on approval or hoping not to be delisted, no. They’ve got real revenue, real product and growth. Nio is more of a Snowflake, is the stock too high to make a good return versus is this company going to be gone in a few years.
tonysmiles
Footballguy
Speaking of NIO would like some FBG guru's advice. Thinking of buying 5K worth of BUSXF (Grande West Transportation Group) on the premise it could be a flyer since it is an alternative fuel Bus company thinking it rip like NIO did in 2020.
Also thining of taking a 1K share in GEVO wondering if at 6.50 if I am late to the party with GEVO
Also thining of taking a 1K share in GEVO wondering if at 6.50 if I am late to the party with GEVO
Desert_Power
Footballguy
We have some XPEV and my father in law has a ton of NIO cheap. Chinese EVs are going to be a very big market I want a part of. You might get any of the names much cheaper.
Hmm, checked out GEVO and I wouldn’t touch it. Don’t listen to me as I’ve been wrong about speculative stocks before. There revenue has been flat for years until 2020:
Q4 2019: $7M
Q1 2020: $4M
Q2 2020: <$1M
Q3 2020: Close to $0
Renewable energy doesn’t seem like something that would be that affected by CV-19 since it hasn’t done that to other alternative energy stocks.
Then you get this info in an article today that caused a nice pop:
This morning, the company announced a new "Net-Zero Projects" concept for producing "energy dense liquid hydrocarbons using renewable energy." Under the concept, Gevo says it will take renewable energy produced from solar, wind, or other power sources and use it to transform crops into transportable liquid fuel, with the by-product being only "high protein feed products for use in the food chain."
Gevo says it will need to invest $700 million to create Net-Zero 1. The company, which currently has about $80 million in the bank and is raising $150 million more from a stock offering, says it is "working ... with Citigroup to get [the rest of Net-Zero 1] financed."
I sure don’t get warm and fuzzy feels from that. Reeks of desperation and an idea they drew up on the back of a napkin. Dilute the stock 20%, use up all the cash and saddle the company with debt about 75% of the market cap on a hope since revenues are somehow down to squadoosh. Again, just my opinion but I wouldn’t touch it.
ETA: Remember this is my opinion of the company/long term prospects versus short term timing it while it runs up whether real or not.
Last edited by a moderator:
The General
Footballguy
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Anyone left in here with Albertson's? It's not real sexy but it is performing. Probably just me as I'm the only one foolish enough to be hanging onto to Amazon.
Smashed earnings and raised guidance. Based on that guidance the 2021 PE is 5.5. 2.3% dividend. It's only 0.4% of my portfolio but I basically have been in as a "cash" position. The 18.5% return in the last two months has been a nice return on cash. I'd like to add a few more of these. If the market tanks I suspect they will drop substantially less and it would be easy to pivot elsewhere.
Smashed earnings and raised guidance. Based on that guidance the 2021 PE is 5.5. 2.3% dividend. It's only 0.4% of my portfolio but I basically have been in as a "cash" position. The 18.5% return in the last two months has been a nice return on cash. I'd like to add a few more of these. If the market tanks I suspect they will drop substantially less and it would be easy to pivot elsewhere.
Sideshow Bob
Footballguy
I have a tough time with WFC. Just don't want to own out of principle. But I believe they're trading below book value still. I'd have a tough time selling that right now with the prospect of a new CEO leading them out of regulatory hell.
Nick Vermeil
Footballguy
Big League Chew
Footballguy
WiMi announced it obtained patent for new 3d holographic pulse laser for autonomous driving
McBokonon
Footballguy
CR69
Footballguy
I feel like I've been careful since May and it hasn't gone so well. What's your advice? I still have about 5% cash between various accounts but of course have a ton of stuff that's run up over the last couple of months. Most stocks I buy are companies I like and want to hold long term.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
From the files of boring stocks Bass owns, Target is crushing....https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/13/target-tgt-holiday-sales-2020-comparable-sales-jump-17percent.html
Bezos should take some notes on how it's done.
Bezos should take some notes on how it's done.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Our target cash balance is 25-30%. I don’t get too crazy because I am a long term investor. But I also tactically raise cash to take advantage of corrections when all my flags start raising. We are currently sitting at about 15% (that was after year end rebalancing an tax harvesting). For my IRA’s I will stay at 15%. But my taxable accounts I am raising more cash this week.
My 401K, I never touch in that regard. I stay fully invested. rebalance two times a year and keep plowing money into it every month. It is a natural dollar cost averaging account anyway.
90% of my stocks are solid, fundamentally sound positions. I have about 10% in what I would consider highly speculative positions. But oddly enough my most speculative position (BLDP), is earmarked as a long term hold (minimum 5 years). I truly believe in the space (Hydrogen Power Cell Tech) and the long term viability of that company. When that stock does pull back (because it will) I will add more with the cash I build. I am also depositing extra cash I have at the end of each month into my taxable account.
We will get some real volatility this year. Nothing that will surprise me. And we will be buyers as always.
Rinse and repeat.
randall146
Footballguy
Market about to open, Todem in italics below.
F5 F5 F5 F5
F5 F5 F5 F5
Honestly, if it’s money you won’t need soon and you want to legit hold them for years, you could sit through it. My portfolio was up over 100% for 2020. I didn’t really sell anything (not counting selling one and buying another) in March, rode it out and even added some where I had cash. The returns of everything from the March bottom was 200%. If I had sold in February but didn’t feel comfortable to jump back in at the exact right point, I could have missed out on the biggest gains. Some people timed it right but others probably sat there and waited too long.
This isn’t easy. I think about trimming because I can look at my long term stocks and 22 of them have doubled or more. 3 of those I bought in May 2019, the other 19 were October 2019 or in 2020, even as little as a couple months ago. That’s awesome but it sure does worry you that there will be a pause or correction soon. I’ll likely not do much trimming at all as more than half is in an IRA that I won’t touch for 10 years at a minimum. I’d also have to pay taxes on anything sold in my taxable account even if long term so who knows.
The valuations I am seeing of course are an indicator.
But here some others:
1. Margin balances on a % basis have not been this high since the 2000 tech bubble. A huge warning sign.
2. I am hearing far too much chatter from people who truly amateurs telling me what stocks to buy. I am talking in my local circles. I coach baseball. I have players parents all talking to me now about their portfolios. Another warning sign. Too many are stock experts again. People that I know that simply have no business giving me stock advice.
3. Too much bitcoin chatter....just getting out of hand. We are talking about a paperless and completely unregulated currency that can be gone like a fart in the wind tomorrow. If you have a bitcoin account.....it can be hacked. This is an artificial currency used on the dark web and by scammers. That alone should give you a ton of pause and apprehension about getting involved in this. That is another bubble waiting to implode. It smells. It feels off. Too good to be true territory.
And some will completely disagree with me. That is ok. I won’t argue. I will simply do what I do and advise how I advise. I have my methodology. I only invest in what I fully understand. I don’t like cocktail napkin stock tips (whisper stocks) and I don’t take stock advice from my hairdresser.
All those common sense elements are emanating all around me. We are headed for a correction. When the selling starts.....the margins are called and then you get outright selling of everything to cover. That is why the margin balances are a huge tell tale sign we are on that cusp. All it takes is a 7-10% correction and that snowballs into 15 to 20% due to margin calls.
I am not trying to be an alarmist. And hey.....if I am wrong. Awesome. We will continue to participate in this great market. But I know better. Been doing this since 1987.
NajehHejan
Footballguy
I’m in total agreement. I like your target cash numbers, may put together a trim list to see how I get there.
urbanhack
Fight The Power!
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Out of RIDE - Hit 50% return on this round
10% reduction in SE this morning - It's exceeded my price target. Will continue to trim if it goes up and will buy on any pullback.
50% reduction in Corsair gaming - 5% pop today, 30% return in the last month. Thanks to whoever suggested this.
Looks like my AIRI order tripped yesterday for a 10% gain. This was a shot at a ABNB bump that didn't work out as planned. Nice to make money on a screw up.
10% reduction in SE this morning - It's exceeded my price target. Will continue to trim if it goes up and will buy on any pullback.
50% reduction in Corsair gaming - 5% pop today, 30% return in the last month. Thanks to whoever suggested this.
Looks like my AIRI order tripped yesterday for a 10% gain. This was a shot at a ABNB bump that didn't work out as planned. Nice to make money on a screw up.
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
I get greedy when people are afraid. And I get afraid when people are greedy.
We are in that "people are getting greedy point".
I really cannot give broad based statements on a persons individual situation. I am sorry. I have no clue what you portfolio looks like, what your returns have been, what the goals are.
That is hard and not fair to you.
A pull back is likely in the name. But I am really digging in for the long haul on this one. And also why no more than 5% of my account is in the name. It is a speculative stock and it will swing. If your time horizon is short.....you take your money, pat yourself on the back for a great trade and do not look back.
ChiefD
Footballguy
That was me, but I never added to my 50 shares. If it dips back to mid 30s I’ll add some more. This is one of those too many stocks where I didn’t think about adding more until I saw it jump into the $40s. I think longer term could be a nice 15-20% a year gainer.
-OZ-
Footballguy
-OZ-
Footballguy
Al Czervik
Not wearing pants
ZOM taking a beating.
Last edited by a moderator:
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
Great points here as always. Disagree on BTC, but certainly understand your POV. Went ahead and got out of some things that had run up that I didn't truly believe in, other than 3 SPACs: PSTH, IPOD and FUSE.
Yep, I’m up almost 30% with no merger. The one thing to remember on PSTH is that it started at $20, not $10. They raised a lot more money than most SPACs. It would be nice to get a merger and see if this is a long term hold or not. Most SPACs that have merged that I bought have actually been things I’m happy to hold. OPEN, CLOV (not exciting, but should be good), RIDE (sold at $28.5), LAZR (sold at $29.5), TTCF and GHIV (might sell after switchover). I think when they get over $25 to $30, definitely good time to think about unloading although some have flown much further. Still have a bunch that haven’t merged but IPOD and PSTH are the only ones at a large premium, others are 10-20% up. I definitely wasn’t wrong when I said SPACs might be a great place to park cash. Probably should have parked all of my cash there as that was before the big EV popping. Definitely missed out on some doozies.
Those are the type of stocks that will get crushed if there’s any type of large correction.
I will throw out one thing to folks in the really speculative stuff. Check the volumes as I’d strongly avoid things with thin volume.
One of the last IPOs that Fidelity deemed me worthy of a pittance was LSF. Did great on it sold it above $50, but it took like 10 minutes to sell my 100 shares. That’s right only 100 and it took a while. It was split into 3 different sales.
That was a stock that had more than doubled and was doing well but had a thin volume. If you are trying to exit a large position from a thinly traded stock while others are doing the same, you could lose a chunk just waiting for a sale. Anyway, just a PSA on that because I experienced it and that wasn’t a fire sale/big drop just a stock without volume during a good time.
Sideshow Bob
Footballguy
NGA popping. Is this just because of the Mad Money rumor or are they still getting mileage out of the AMZN agreement? What happens to an electric bus carrying an anchor?
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
SouthJersey
Footballguy
Does any one have strategies on selling/trimming? I see stuff like this from the pros like Todem. It makes sense. Every f'in stock I pick right now is a winner and I don't know anything. My mom is texting me $BTC prices. Etc etc.
But I also see dudes posting charts of twitter showing "my biggest losses were the stocks i sold too early" which also makes sense and has been true for me.
If you guys are selling off a little, what % and how are you approaching it?
ChiefD
Footballguy
I don't think their acquisition of PKG is done yet. So it may have some room to run yet.
I sold some already and banked some profits, so free rolling the rest.
bshell27
Footballguy
I am struggling with how much to sell. Do you just sell back your original investment and let it ride, or take the profits and let the original investment ride?
ChiefD
Footballguy
I basically sold enough to cover my initial investment + 100% profit. So I basically sold enough to double my original investment.
Holding onto the rest to see what happens. Up 1100% at the moment.
