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***Official Buffalo Bills Thread 2021 Version: The Quest to Sustain Success***


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1 minute ago, Grigs Allmoon said:

They are an 8 point home-dog for a reason... This one shouldn't be close.

I know and a 48 point total.

28-20. 

I'll be surprised if they keep it under 2 scores.

This has 31-13 all over it to me.  Of course Sal thinks it'll be close and everything is great because they have injuries defensively.  He's sometimes worse than Murph.

 

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53 minutes ago, Gottabesweet said:

I know and a 48 point total.

28-20. 

I'll be surprised if they keep it under 2 scores.

This has 31-13 all over it to me.  Of course Sal thinks it'll be close and everything is great because they have injuries defensively.  He's sometimes worse than Murph.

 

I actually think they have a shot. I think they'll do a good job shutting down the running game, and with Atlanta's RT out again, Lawson/Yarbrough should make Ryan really uncomfortable. My biggest worry on that side of the ball is actually Coleman matched up against the LBers.

On offense, the Bills SHOULD be able to run quite effectively, and I anticipate Tyrod having a decent game too. (I could see Clay conceivably having a big game. Like 80 yards and 2 TDs).

Honestly, I think this game comes down to sacks+turnovers. If the Bills can be +2 in sacks+turnovers, I think they have a really good chance to win the game.

All that being said, they'll probably lose by 30.

Edited by GroveDiesel
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On 9/26/2017 at 10:24 AM, ScottNorwood said:

Not only 2-1 now, but the rest of the schedule doesn't look so scary anymore.  Atlanta, KC, New England and maybe Oakland are the only games that look like longshots.

I think you can easily suffocate the Raiders offense, and (it pains me to say) control the clock against New England.

 

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3 hours ago, GroveDiesel said:

I actually think they have a shot. I think they'll do a good job shutting down the running game, and with Atlanta's RT out again, Lawson/Yarbrough should make Ryan really uncomfortable. My biggest worry on that side of the ball is actually Coleman matched up against the LBers.

On offense, the Bills SHOULD be able to run quite effectively, and I anticipate Tyrod having a decent game too. (I could see Clay conceivably having a big game. Like 80 yards and 2 TDs).

Honestly, I think this game comes down to sacks+turnovers. If the Bills can be +2 in sacks+turnovers, I think they have a really good chance to win the game.

All that being said, they'll probably lose by 30.

I agree with one of your points.

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As I said in the Miami game thread, I'm really tiring of the NFL. I'll continue watching the Bills this year (for awhile), but I can see me checking out of the NFL next season.

I'm going to need to fill the void. How's the Sabres doing? I loved hockey when I was kid but lost touch after I moved to the states. 

 

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48 minutes ago, flysack said:

As I said in the Miami game thread, I'm really tiring of the NFL. I'll continue watching the Bills this year (for awhile), but I can see me checking out of the NFL next season.

I'm going to need to fill the void. How's the Sabres doing? I loved hockey when I was kid but lost touch after I moved to the states. 

 

:oldunsure:

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I'm sure the Bills will end up falling apart and punching us in the stomach after teasing us early like they always do, but man, if there ever was a year to grab at least a wild card, this is it. 

The Jets and Dolphins are both terrible and SHOULD be 4 wins. Brady is Brady, but that defense is not good right now. Not a whole lot of other great teams in the AFC either outside of KC, and the Bills have a win (and nice conference win tiebreaker) against the Broncos. 

And the schedule is looking softer and softer. If the defense doesn't lose anyone for an extended period, there really is no good reason that they can't win a WC.

Which of course all means bad news for the long term. If they make the playoffs, with how good KC looks, there is no way they have enough firepower to draft a top QB next year. 

That would be so Buffalo. Eek into the playoffs on a down year, lose in the first round, and miss out on a potentially great QB draft.

Oh, and that 2016 draft looks terrible. Lawson looks like he's a stud, but can't stay on the field. Washington is the only guy even left on the roster and he is a healthy scratch today. Definitely another notch in the column for why Whaley was fired.

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On 9/29/2017 at 3:52 PM, GroveDiesel said:

I actually think they have a shot. I think they'll do a good job shutting down the running game, and with Atlanta's RT out again, Lawson/Yarbrough should make Ryan really uncomfortable. My biggest worry on that side of the ball is actually Coleman matched up against the LBers.

On offense, the Bills SHOULD be able to run quite effectively, and I anticipate Tyrod having a decent game too. (I could see Clay conceivably having a big game. Like 80 yards and 2 TDs).

Honestly, I think this game comes down to sacks+turnovers. If the Bills can be +2 in sacks+turnovers, I think they have a really good chance to win the game.

All that being said, they'll probably lose by 30.

:goodposting:

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The NE defense is downright terrible. Bills in sole possession of 1st place with wins over Denver and Atlanta. No losses in the AFC yet. Balls bouncing their way. Refs leaning their way overall. 

Bengals on tap next week before the bye. 

Can't wait to see how the Bills blow this season in the end.

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And just how bad of a coach is Rex Ryan? This team looks LIGHT years better than under Rex. It's not even close.

The O-line is still not very good, the LBers aren't very good in coverage, and the WRs are non-existent, but the stupid penalties have pretty much disappeared, the team has been clutch, and the defense looks fantastic.

And, in other AFCE news, the Jets are doing a terrible job of tanking, lol.

Edited by GroveDiesel
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13 minutes ago, GroveDiesel said:

But also addition by subtraction with Gilmore going to NE. :excited:

https://twitter.com/DuffyOnWCMF/status/914601715302793216

White, a rookie 4 weeks into the season, is already better than Gilmore. 

Officially put me on the Sean McDermott wagon. I love what's he's done here.

BTW, have you guys been keeping up with Watkins' stats in LA? That offense is exploding and he's had one good week and been outplayed by a third round draft pick on the others. We all know he has the talent, but there's something about him, something he lacks that OBJ and Evans have. 

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I'm not sure this team is for real - though it looks like the defense is - but it's kinda impressive that they've been so competitive considering they have nothing at WR, their highest-paid player is absolutely worthless, and they have 6 picks in the first 3 rounds next year.  The picks might not be good picks, but it's still a ton of draft capital to fill in the holes.

The Bills are 3-1, and their opponents are 3-1 / 3-1 / 3-1 / 2-2.  I think the Jets are pretty terrible, but this team is beating good teams.

Maybe, just maybe, McDermott is the real deal.  I don't know, something just feels different.  In those occasional past years when the team had a hot start, you always had the inkling that the wheels were about to fall off.  They'd beat bad teams but they'd never get those wins against teams that they "shouldn't" beat.  Well, they just beat perennial contender Denver and then went to Atlanta and beat the defending NFC champions.

I think we'll find out in the next few weeks whether they're for real.  Kansas City and New England x2 in the back half of the season should account for at least 2, if not 3 losses.  These upcoming 4 weeks will show what they're made of.  Two up-and-coming darlings at home in Tampa and Oakland, a probably-better-than-their-record Cincinnati on the road, and a Thursday night road game at a division opponent.  We'll see.

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I'm seeing a lot of griping from Falcons fans about that fumble-six for Tre White.  I can't say I blame em, I was pretty stunned when the call wasn't overturned.

That said, what is the actual rule?  I'm usually spot-on with my football rules, but I'm not sure the actual correct call on this.  Ryan has the ball in his hand, Hughes hits him, the ball is clearly moving but still in Ryan's hand.  Ryan has enough control to push the ball forward in his throwing motion.  He is in the process of losing control of the ball before his throwing motion starts, but the ball is clearly still in his hand and he has enough control to move it forward.  Is that a fumble or an incomplete pass?  

ETA: I guess it's not a question of the rule, moreso the interpretation.  If he has lost control before the arm is coming forward, fumble, obviously.  But what determines loss of control?

Edited by Steve Tasker
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8 hours ago, GroveDiesel said:

The Bills are 3 point underdogs to the Bengals right now. Seems dumb. Although I'd like them to continue to be underdogs and carry that chip on the shoulder.

If any of you are betting men, jump all over that.

The Bengals primary weakness is their o-line. That's why they can't run. That's why Dalton gets harassed. Cleveland didn't even make them look good. Yea, Dalton had his day passing, but they still couldn't run. 

What do you think they're going to do vs. the Bills D line? The Bengals hang 14 points max on the Bills. 

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29 minutes ago, irishidiot said:

and your WR's are basically who is that?

This was probably my biggest gripe about the offense going into this season.  They lost their 2 best deep-threats - Watkins and Goodwin - and replaced them with intermediate possession WRs in Matthews and Jones.  I have no problems with Matthews or Jones in theory, but Tyrod's best asset is the deep throw.

I am concerned that this will doom the offense in the long-term.  The Bills have completed 21 passes to WRs in 4 games.  Only 21.  That's 1.3 per quarter.  Zay Jones has caught only 4 of 17 targets - some of which are his fault, some Tyrod's fault.  Kaelin Clay is fast, but the Bills are deluding themselves if they think he's a consistent viable deep threat.  And without that threat to stretch the field, the run game has suffered: McCoy, Tolbert, and Tyrod are all averaging less than 4.0 ypc.

This is the point in the season where there's enough film for opposing coaches to really exploit weaknesses.  The Bills offense has done just enough in the 3 wins to scrape together enough points and ride the defense to victory.  I don't think the defense is going to fall off, but there are going to be games that the offense is going to have to go out and win.

Edited by Steve Tasker
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14 hours ago, Steve Tasker said:

I'm seeing a lot of griping from Falcons fans about that fumble-six for Tre White.  I can't say I blame em, I was pretty stunned when the call wasn't overturned.

That said, what is the actual rule?  I'm usually spot-on with my football rules, but I'm not sure the actual correct call on this.  Ryan has the ball in his hand, Hughes hits him, the ball is clearly moving but still in Ryan's hand.  Ryan has enough control to push the ball forward in his throwing motion.  He is in the process of losing control of the ball before his throwing motion starts, but the ball is clearly still in his hand and he has enough control to move it forward.  Is that a fumble or an incomplete pass?  

ETA: I guess it's not a question of the rule, moreso the interpretation.  If he has lost control before the arm is coming forward, fumble, obviously.  But what determines loss of control?

My take is that if Ryan were a WR and we were talking about making a catch, there is no way he would have been ruled to have control of the ball.  So why should the standard be different when it comes a QB and fumbling?  Just my two cents though.

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10 minutes ago, IvanKaramazov said:

My take is that if Ryan were a WR and we were talking about making a catch, there is no way he would have been ruled to have control of the ball.  So why should the standard be different when it comes a QB and fumbling?  Just my two cents though.

Well, the catch rule is a debacle itself, but throwing a football is different from catching it.

Here's an explanation of the rule and a replay, definitely looks to me that the Bills got lucky there. I actually don't think that part of the rule really applies here, I don't think he lost control until his hand was moving forward.

Edited by humpback
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5 hours ago, irishidiot said:

been a lot of bashing in here & maybe justified but T. Taylor throws a nice deep ball IMO.

Fixed. Watch some of his middle passes. He's fine dumping it off, and shocking accurate on anything over 30 yards. But a 10 yard slant? Forget it. 

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2 hours ago, GroveDiesel said:

Two interesting stats:

Bills have played the 3rd hardest schedule in the league so far

And

Bills are only team in the league to never be down more than 6 points so far this season.

One more interesting stat to add to this list...

The Bills have not played the Patriots, yet.

 

:P

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18 hours ago, GroveDiesel said:

The Bills are 3 point underdogs to the Bengals right now. Seems dumb. Although I'd like them to continue to be underdogs and carry that chip on the shoulder.

I know it was only the Browns but they got that spark they needed from a new OC that's targeting Green a lot more.  It's a 50/50 game.  I think the line is set fine.

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11 minutes ago, Gottabesweet said:

I know it was only the Browns but they got that spark they needed from a new OC that's targeting Green a lot more.  It's a 50/50 game.  I think the line is set fine.

Also a Vegas uses the public perception to set lines to get people to bet as well.

General public isn't ready to think of the Bills as a road favorite, and I'm not sure i am ready either.

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20 minutes ago, flysack said:

Looks like Derek Carr is out for 2-6 weeks. 

I'm having a real hard time thinking EJ Manuel is a better option than Colin Kaepernick. 

That means there's a decent chance the Bills could be matched up against an EJ Manuel lead Raiders team in 4 weeks.

Lotta balls bouncing Buffalo's way this year so far...

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2 hours ago, Jon F. said:

Also a Vegas uses the public perception to set lines to get people to bet as well.

General public isn't ready to think of the Bills as a road favorite, and I'm not sure i am ready either.

YardsPerPass tweeted that casinos often use power rankings that are largely based on yardage figures to set their lines. Buffalo bottom 5 offense yardage wise, Bengals top 5 defense yardage wise.

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2 minutes ago, GroveDiesel said:

That means there's a decent chance the Bills could be matched up against an EJ Manuel lead Raiders team in 4 weeks.

Lotta balls bouncing Buffalo's way this year so far...

lawl. That would be awesome. But they're saying it's a good chance Carr will be back by then. 6 weeks is a conservative, outside number.

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On 10/1/2017 at 10:22 PM, GroveDiesel said:

The Bills are 3 point underdogs to the Bengals right now. Seems dumb. Although I'd like them to continue to be underdogs and carry that chip on the shoulder.

Generally the home team is given +3 points. So they're essentially saying that they view the Bengals and Bills even, with the Bengals having home field advantage. It's still early, and the Bills don't have a lot of offensive weapons. It's basically Tyrod, LeSean and Clay.

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  • GroveDiesel changed the title to ***Official Buffalo Bills Thread 2021 Version: The Quest to Sustain Success***

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