Doug B
Footballguy
Exactly right. Bell only wins if he gets a contract like Gurley's or David Johnson's, only with way more Year One guaranteed money. Preferably up-front signing bonus.
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RB Le'Veon Bell, FA - 9.6.21 Workout For Baltimore (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Eminence
- Start date
Exactly. Not only did he cost himself major bucks on his upcoming contract, he only has possibly 5 years left to be paid starter RB money, and he forfeited one this year. The boy doesn't understand shelf life and making money when the earnings window is open.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
A couple of things. In Bell's mind, his worst case scenario was playing this year for $14.5 million, getting severely hurt, and never getting another contract. Granted, if he took the deals offered him last year or this year, he probably would have fared better than only the $14.5 million (but that's water under the bridge).
Some team with a ton of cap room will give him a boatload of money still. If he gets what Gurley got (that may or may not be realistic), then he would get a $21 million signing bonus, another $24 million in guarantees, with a total contract of 4 years for $57.5 million.
Bell apparently doesn't look at things as never being able to recoup $14.5 million (if he doesn't play at all this season). He looks at is as ensuring he gets $45 million next year instead. We don't know what ultimately he will see in guaranteed money, but there should still be teams interested in him (NYJ, OAK, IND, BAL, MIA, CLE, GB, BUF, HOU, etc.).
So we Average Joe's will say he lost out on $14.5 million that he will never see, but he will look at it as gaining way more than the $14.5 million. And neither side would be able to prove they were right or wrong.
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
this....he would be stupid to play for PIT this year....no way his agent let's him play...
I would be absolutely shocked if he gets anywhere near what Gurley got. He was banking on Pittsburgh struggling and, hence, his value going up. The exact opposite happened. Not only didn't they struggle, Connor accomplished things that Bell hadn't even accomplished. He may still get a decent contract, but that $14.5 million dollars for this year was thrown into the wind. He messed up.
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
which would you choose....
1. $14.5 mil for one year with risk of career ending injury and no guaranteed future money
2. pass on $14.5 for one year knowing you can get let's say $45 to $50 mil, with much of it guaranteed (at least more than $14.5) for say 4 years
pretty easy really...
msommer
Footballguy
According to NFL.com if the Steelers franchise tag him again next year it would be for QB money
Le'Veon Bell would be at QB number if tagged again
Le'Veon Bell would be at QB number if tagged again
msommer
Footballguy
at the end of two please add "with risk of career ending injury and thus losing all non guaranteed money in the contract"
The risk of career ending injury exists in both scenarios
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Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
the signing bonus and guaranteed money will be well north of 14.5....so it still makes it a no brainer....
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msommer
Footballguy
Being a professional athlete, I'd want to prove things like dedication, loyalty to my teammates, my ability to stay off the weed, and not get injured. Bell has baggage and question marks to teams thinking of making a huge investment in him. He failed to answer those questions and Connor's performance lessened his bargaining power as a difference maker. Maybe it's just my nature, but I'd always choose to show my worth rather than disregard my teammates and prove what I bring to the table.
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
if he doesn't play a snap this year and signs with a new team....what do you think the numbers would look like...?....
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
you might want all those things, but that doesn't make it a good business decision..lol...
.and there is a good chance if you really were in this situation you would be whistling a different tune
Bell does not need to prove all those things....he has enough street cred built up.....somebody WILL pay him....in fact they will probably line up to do so....many of the things you mentioned are really Hallmark card type stuff when it comes to the business side of the NFL....GM's of all 32 of the teams understand WHY he is doing what he is doing....while yeah, his "value" may not be worth as much as it once was, it is still worth more than 14.5....
I missed your opinion on how you think he'll recoup the $14 million he gave away this year.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
The league definitely has a problem. The NFL looks bad that one of their marquee players is potentially going to sit out an entire season because of the franchise tag rules. I know it's hard to feel all that bad for players that make millions of dollars, but things really go against the best players in the league, especially at RB.
For argument's sake, let's say a RB gets out of college and will be 22 years old as a rookie and gets drafted in the late first round. A team signs him to a 4 year standard deal. That eats up his age 22, 23, 24, and 25 year seasons. Then they invoke the 5th year rookie contract option. There goes his age 26 season. Then they can franchise him twice. There goes his age 27 and 28 seasons.
So now that RB has played 7 years and could already have accumulated 2,500 career touches (more on a playoff team) and finally reaches free agency at age 29 when the whole league considers RBs poison at age 30. Who knows what nagging injuries he's stockpiled along the way.
Let's use Sony Michel as an example (only because of his draft position). He will make $9.6 million over 4 years. NE could keep him for a 5th year (probably at $9 million). Using the 20% multiplier (we don't know what the Top 5 salaries will be for RBs in 5 years), he'd get $10.8 million for franchise tag 1 and $13 million for franchise tag 2.
My numbers might be a little low for years 5-7, but the quick math adds up to $42.4 million for 7 years of work. If Michel turned out to be a bell cow RB, he would have burned up his prime years for basically an average of $6 million a year. IMO, it's not right that a team gets a premium player for low dollars and can get 85% of his career production at a deep discount and essentially prevent a player from getting a huge payday.
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Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
I don't have one....he won't....that is not the point, he obviously doesn't care about that....that doesn't make what he is doing a bad business decision....
but actually if he reports....I think he starts making like 850,000 a week about 4.25 mil....even if they deactivate him or he doesn't actually "play" in a game....I could be wrong
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
It falls in the cost of doing business category by getting a huge contract next year. The argument works the other way, too. There's no guarantee that Bell would make even $1 past this season by playing all of 2018 + the playoffs for $14.5 million and take on 450-475 carries (if healthy) across that time if he ended up suffering a career ending injury.
The fact that he gave away that 14.5 million plus has made his value drop because of the combination of Connor being every bit as good plus his desire/selfishness issues means a huge net loss and a decision that backfired. If your only argument is that he didn't get hurt, then I guess I'll give you that one.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Bell stands to make whatever he and the team agree to. The most he can make across the season is the $14.5 million franchise tag number. We all assume they will just agree on a prorated $850K per week. There is nothing in the rules that says he can't make $1.5 million a week (although we all know that won't happen).
The player and team are supposed to negotiate what Bell's pay will be if the team elects to keep him inactive the first two weeks. There is no specified number in the CBA. Bell will likely want and expect full pay for those weeks. Who knows what the Steelers will offer. Past the first two weeks, Bell should make $850K for however many weeks he is there (active or inactive, playing or not playing).
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
Connor playing well doesn't really have anything to do with 31 other teams looking to sign him next year.....and you are probably overestimating how much teams care about players being selfish........they don't really care if you can help them win....
Anarchy99
Footballguy
His value TO THE STEELERS has dropped. I don't think his value to 31 other teams has dropped that much. All it takes is one team to have a crush on him to make him dirty rotten filthy stinking rich next year. I agree his value SHOULD drop, but there are some not so smart teams, owners, and GM's out there.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
The reason why I brought this up is that there was talk on tv that Bell might demand more money as compensation for playoff games or he could threaten not to play them. Players get a set amount based on how far their team advances in the post season, and that amount won't be close to Bell's $850K per game pro rata regular season game share.
So while doubtful, I don't think it is out of the question that he asks for extra pay for playoff games (since he didn't play most of the season). Again, I do not believe there is anything in the CBA that covers this or prevents this. It just hasn't come up before (nor has a player made it an issue).
And the 800 pound gorilla in the room that hasn't come up recently is if Bell opts to come up with minor injuries that his camp says would prevent him from playing. Things could still get even uglier.
Godsbrother
Footballguy
Had Bell signed the long term contract offer from the Steelers he would already have $21 million regardless of what happened this season or next. I would have taken that $21 million back in July
brewer
Footballguy
They offered him a 5 year, 60M contract in 2017. He would have made 30M over the first two years. Instead he made 12 last year and skipped out so far on 9 this year.
Exactly. Anyone claiming he didn't bungle this entire thing simply doesn't understand economics.
msommer
Footballguy
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
msommer
Footballguy
Worm
slimy ninja
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
both his signing bonus and his guaranteed money will probably be north of the 14.5.....which at this point....makes not playing a snap this year for PIT really the best decision....
should he have maybe signed some previous offers or whatever and maybe that wasn't the best decision.....sure....but with where it is at right now.....there is no reason to not just show up and try not to actually have to play....whether thats through an "understanding" with the team or not being in shape....or having a tight hammy....
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I don't think many people know exactly what was offered and when, nor what the full terms and conditions would have been. It has been reported that the Steelers contract offers in 2017 and 2018 were light on guaranteed money and basically only guaranteed each season's salary from year to year. So it was essentially similar to Bell playing on 5 more franchise tags. Essentially, Bell would have had a year-to-year contract that only PIT had the option of opting out of.
This essentially is what all NFL contracts over in terms of the salary portion of a contract. ALL players on the Week 1 roster have their salaries guaranteed for that season. No matter what, they will be paid the entire amount of their contract even if they are released after one game.
So in many ways, guaranteeing the year that Bell was about to play in wasn't really a guarantee at all. It would have afforded him the same job security as every other player in the league. However, given the nature of the game, it wouldn't have given him a big chunk of change as a signing bonus, or any long-term security or protection if he got hurt.
Sure, after the fact, looking at it in hindsight, we could say that he would have made X amount after two years . . . if he stayed healthy and the Steelers still wanted him. By definition that is not guaranteed money.
msommer
Footballguy
At this point I'm not prepared to speculate to which extent Bell has hurt his next contract on the basis of his behaviour this year
steelers1080
Footballguy
Le'veon has already played his best season. No matter what team he signs with next year, I don't see him as a top 5 RB anymore. He's behind Gurley, Gordon, Kamara, Hunt, and Conner. Those teams also have great offensive lines and great passing offenses. No other team offers that, that seems to be in the market for a RB, Colts, GB, Browns, Jets, etc.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
The funny thing about football is teams do stupid things all the time. I don't think Brandin Cooks is worth $16.2 million a season and many other receivers behind him (Sammy Watkins $16M, Jarvis Landry $15.1M, Allen Robinson $14M, etc.) At this point, Tyrod Taylor ($15.25) and Josh McCown ($10 million) are getting paid big money not to play.
Teams sign players to big contracts all the time, usually based on past performance. I suspect there will be teams that want Bell for any number of reasons. If he is a free agent, not having to trade picks or assets. If it is a small market team, to sell tickets or attract sponsors. If it's the Raiders, to sell personal seat licenses. If it's a marginal team, it could jump start the road to respectability. If it's GB or IND, they could solve there rushing game and enhance their passing game with one signing.
Will a team be smart to give Bell a big contract? Probably not, but that doesn't mean there won't be teams looking to bring him in.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
You are obviously of the opinion Bell would play in the playoffs.Dizzy said:
I am not. He wont even suit up.
apalmer
Footballguy
3. Play for $14.5 mil, with a high probability of getting a contract next year for let's say $45 to $50 mil
ghostguy123
Footballguy
It was always a bad financial decision to not sign the tag. Even if he did tear an ACL or something he still would have gotten a nice contract next year.
I said before. When you win the lottery, don't use all those winnings to try and win a bigger lottery. Silly.
I said before. When you win the lottery, don't use all those winnings to try and win a bigger lottery. Silly.
Dizzy
Footballguy
Again. Would not be a good look for a free agent seeking work and max $$$.
This thing may have blown up in his face, but Bell's a football player... he'll play.
Obviously you (and others) don't believe a shot at a Super Bowl ring is the least bit interesting to a guy that's probably played football more than half his life, and probably dreamed about exactly that for most of it.
bryhamm
Footballguy
Theoretically, this makes sense. But would a RB like Michel really be franchise tagged? Seems you would only want to do that to those RBs you thought were top 5, or close to it.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
If we change the player to someone drafted higher, the same concepts hold true but the rookie salary and team option costs would go up some (but not a ton). I would have to recalculate the numbers for guys like Barkley. There are other top producing backs that weren't first round picks. Kamara, Hunt, and Conner come to mind. They have it worse. Their starting pay is much lower. But at least teams don't get a fifth year option.
tmoney300zx
Footballguy
Someone got frustrated and desperate last week and decided to drop Bell.
How mych of a FAAB bid would make sense to pick him up? Not sure what his value is and if it’s worth blowing my budget on this.
How mych of a FAAB bid would make sense to pick him up? Not sure what his value is and if it’s worth blowing my budget on this.
gianmarco
Footballguy
Steelers4Life
Footballguy
He was/is never going to get a contract for $45M with much of it guaranteed.
Todd Gurley, who's younger without any drug suspensions in his background, got a total of $22M fully guaranteed at signing with the rest of his "guarantees" only vesting in subsequent years. Bell has already said that rolling guarantees don't matter to him.
Bell would've had that already in his bank account if he had signed the Steelers' offer from last year or this year.
DropKick
Footballguy
His objective should be to not play at all if all that matters is the next contract. Why would Bell play at this juncture? He can get hurt; perform poorly (is he in "football" shape?), pretty much only things that can drive down his value.
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Agree. Think it's far more likely he doesn't play a down this season vs. make a meaningful impact.
Let's say he does report next week. Understanding the Steelers current record, Conner's outstanding performance, a solidified locker room, and any kind of friction that exists between Bell and the Steelers organization, this is what I see as best case scenario:
* Weeks 11 -12: Put on exempt list for two weeks. Even if not on exempt list, he basically gets in shape and doesn't see the field for at least 2 weeks. So unless you're locked into the playoffs why bother?
* Weeks 13 & 14: Could see them sprinkling him in. Maybe starts by lining up out wide. Gets a few carries to give Conner a breather.
* Weeks 15-16: Bell has now had "four weeks of training camp." Probably in decent shape. Assuming he's proved himself to be in shape and isn't a locker room cancer, I could see a 60/40 split of Conner / Bell at best.
* Fantasy Season over / Real NFL Playoffs: If I'm the Steelers this is what I'm building for if Bell is game. The playoffs. At this point, I could see a 50/50 split. Both Conner and Bell used. Game plan specific usage.
All that said, I see the above as the best case scenario. Far more likely it's uglier, more drama, and Bell is worthless in 2018.
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ghostguy123
Footballguy
You think he is worried about it not being a good look? Pretty sure we are past the point of no return on that front.
Of course he wants a super bowl, but that is not his number one priority here.
ffweasel
Weasel Power
Why Come Back If True?
“My understanding is the NFL management council and the NFL Players' Association, the parties that negotiated the collective bargaining agreement, are on the same page that if Bell were tagged a third time, whether he shows up this season, whether he sits out the entire year, that tag would be at the higher quarterback number, not the lower number similar to what he would be due under the franchise tag this year," Pelissero said on NFL Up To the Minute on Tuesday. "It would be extremely unlikely for the Steelers to put that higher third franchise tag on Le'Veon Bell. That would set up a scenario where they'd tag him a third time, the number is upwards of $25 million and Bell, if he wanted to, could walk in the day he's tagged, sign it and be owed $25 million for one season."
In addition, the Steelers and the NFL don't plan to argue that his 2018 tag should carry over next year.
"I've been told by both league and team sources that neither the NFL nor the Steelers have any plan to argue that the second tag should carry over, should Le'Veon Bell not play this year," NFL Network's Aditi Kinkhabwala reported. "They are all in agreement that any potential tag would be the third (or the transition)."
“My understanding is the NFL management council and the NFL Players' Association, the parties that negotiated the collective bargaining agreement, are on the same page that if Bell were tagged a third time, whether he shows up this season, whether he sits out the entire year, that tag would be at the higher quarterback number, not the lower number similar to what he would be due under the franchise tag this year," Pelissero said on NFL Up To the Minute on Tuesday. "It would be extremely unlikely for the Steelers to put that higher third franchise tag on Le'Veon Bell. That would set up a scenario where they'd tag him a third time, the number is upwards of $25 million and Bell, if he wanted to, could walk in the day he's tagged, sign it and be owed $25 million for one season."
In addition, the Steelers and the NFL don't plan to argue that his 2018 tag should carry over next year.
"I've been told by both league and team sources that neither the NFL nor the Steelers have any plan to argue that the second tag should carry over, should Le'Veon Bell not play this year," NFL Network's Aditi Kinkhabwala reported. "They are all in agreement that any potential tag would be the third (or the transition)."
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