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WR Keenan Allen, CHI (1 Viewer)

Stat line looks great but too often his value seems to be directly connected to the need to pass. Not sure he becomes option 1 in the offense next year.
Who would it be?
That's my question too. Do they go with Danario Alexander? Malcom Floyd? Vincent Brown? It's not like there's a ton of better options in SD. I don't think they'd bring in a top veteran FA either. Seems like Allen will be their WR1 going into next year.
and BTW , I hope that SD puts Ladarius Green on the field as much as possible next season. Even if Gates is back, I think Lgreen needs to be on the field at all times. No way Vincent Brown or Eddie Royal should be playing significant downs over him

 
I wouldn't be surprised if they brought in someone else with some speed on the other side. I'd expect Ladarius Green to take another step forward as Gates fades into the sunset. Allen is already a tremendously polished wr and I'd expect him to keep his #1 go to role. It seems like the team moved from a passing offense to more of a ball control offense to control the clock and keep their defense off the field. They really became time of possession hogs and were happy to grind away where early in the year they were more run and gun. I'd say it is a concern that they'll stick with the grind it out offense as it led them to the playoffs and a playoff win.

I guess long story short is that it looks like he'll be a good posession type wr and good red zone option. To me his ceiling is maybe a little higher than it is now but not much. He doesn't seem to have that game breaking Josh Gordon, AJ Green type of talent or explosiveness that I like to target and I don't think he'll have a ton of targets each week and be the focal point of the offense. I think he's a solid WR12-20 type guy which is great but don't know if he's got much upside beyond that. I own him in a keeper league and have been extremely happy with him but there's a good chance that I may look to package him up for an upgrade somewhere else.

 
and BTW , I hope that SD puts Ladarius Green on the field as much as possible next season. Even if Gates is back, I think Lgreen needs to be on the field at all times. No way Vincent Brown or Eddie Royal should be playing significant downs over him
Beyond his explosiveness as a pass-catcher, Green looked like a pretty willing and capable blocker out there yesterday. That also has to bode well for his playing time going forward.

 
What a fantastic rookie year for Keenan Allen. I think it's safe to say that he exceeded everyone's expectations. Whenever the Chargers passed the ball, he put up big numbers. When his numbers suffered, it was usually because they were running the ball.

 
What a fantastic rookie year for Keenan Allen. I think it's safe to say that he exceeded everyone's expectations. Whenever the Chargers passed the ball, he put up big numbers. When his numbers suffered, it was usually because they were running the ball.
agreed and his value is largely dependent upon that...so what type of team will they be going forward? I think it's the later....a running team.

 
What a fantastic rookie year for Keenan Allen. I think it's safe to say that he exceeded everyone's expectations. Whenever the Chargers passed the ball, he put up big numbers. When his numbers suffered, it was usually because they were running the ball.
agreed and his value is largely dependent upon that...so what type of team will they be going forward? I think it's the later....a running team.
With Whisenhunt likely leaving, who knows.

 
What a fantastic rookie year for Keenan Allen. I think it's safe to say that he exceeded everyone's expectations. Whenever the Chargers passed the ball, he put up big numbers. When his numbers suffered, it was usually because they were running the ball.
agreed and his value is largely dependent upon that...so what type of team will they be going forward? I think it's the later....a running team.
With Whisenhunt likely leaving, who knows.
but with the success they've had running the ball, controlling the clock with Rivers and keeping the defense off the field I would think that anyone coming in would look to replicate what was successful the prior year.

 
What a fantastic rookie year for Keenan Allen. I think it's safe to say that he exceeded everyone's expectations. Whenever the Chargers passed the ball, he put up big numbers. When his numbers suffered, it was usually because they were running the ball.
agreed and his value is largely dependent upon that...so what type of team will they be going forward? I think it's the later....a running team.
With Whisenhunt likely leaving, who knows.
but with the success they've had running the ball, controlling the clock with Rivers and keeping the defense off the field I would think that anyone coming in would look to replicate what was successful the prior year.
They're always going to tailor to their strengths. Mathews was good this year. Can he stay healthy again? Will the defense still need "protection" next year? It's still mostly a passing league, and Rivers is decent enough. Look at the numbers Allen put up this year with them running a lot, him being a rookie and not really starting right away. There will be plenty of opportunities.

 
Didn't like his "me" attitude after scoring while still considerably down (pointing at his name on his jersey and crossing his arms)......but he is only 21 years old. I do wonder why he is not more invovled throughout the game as he seems to go long stretches without getting any attention from Rivers.
Cam does his Superman thing, Sherman talks non stop, Graham dunks the ball, Green Bay runs to the crowd, Ray Lewis danced coming out of the tunnel for 5 minutes by himself, Cruz does a salsa dance --- So I am guessing celebrating a TD is a me thing for everyone who scores.
Yeah, and that's aside from the point that this game was not actually over during either TD. The Chargers may have gotten the ball back for a final drive had Denver been unable to sustain it's final drive. I'm not going to bemoan an offensive player for showing excitement when the team was without energy through 50 minutes.

 
I guess long story short is that it looks like he'll be a good posession type wr and good red zone option. To me his ceiling is maybe a little higher than it is now but not much. He doesn't seem to have that game breaking Josh Gordon, AJ Green type of talent or explosiveness that I like to target and I don't think he'll have a ton of targets each week and be the focal point of the offense. I think he's a solid WR12-20 type guy which is great but don't know if he's got much upside beyond that. I own him in a keeper league and have been extremely happy with him but there's a good chance that I may look to package him up for an upgrade somewhere else.
This is pretty much my assessment as well but it going to be very difficult to package a 21 yr old Allen and feel like you've come out ahead on the return.
 
What a fantastic rookie year for Keenan Allen. I think it's safe to say that he exceeded everyone's expectations. Whenever the Chargers passed the ball, he put up big numbers. When his numbers suffered, it was usually because they were running the ball.
agreed and his value is largely dependent upon that...so what type of team will they be going forward? I think it's the later....a running team.
As others have mentioned, depends on how effective the running game is and perhaps more importantly, how strong the defense is to keep the team in games.

 
I guess long story short is that it looks like he'll be a good posession type wr and good red zone option. To me his ceiling is maybe a little higher than it is now but not much. He doesn't seem to have that game breaking Josh Gordon, AJ Green type of talent or explosiveness that I like to target and I don't think he'll have a ton of targets each week and be the focal point of the offense. I think he's a solid WR12-20 type guy which is great but don't know if he's got much upside beyond that. I own him in a keeper league and have been extremely happy with him but there's a good chance that I may look to package him up for an upgrade somewhere else.
This is pretty much my assessment as well but it going to be very difficult to package a 21 yr old Allen and feel like you've come out ahead on the return.
agreed...certainly not looking to deal him just to deal him but I guess my point is I'd explore it and deal him if the right move came along for my overall roster. Despite the fact that he is a rookie and had such a good year doesn't make him untradeable to me. I had AJ Green a couple years ago in his rookie year and their stats are almost identical....71-1046-8 (Allen) vs. 65-1057-7 (Green) but there was no way you could pry Green from me while Allen for the right price definitely could be moved.

 
Personally, I think Allen will be overhyped/overvalued/overdrafted next year because this has a "Dwayne Bowe from a couple of years ago" kind of feel to it.

The Chargers played 11 games against opponents who were ranked in the bottom 10 in pass defense and, honestly, all teams who faced against heavy doses of the NFC East this year got skewed numbers.

I like allen but I don't see this being something the Chargers are (or become). I think it was situational and if they lose Whiz, they lose a lot. He is an extremely under rated presence there.

I'm not saying he won't be very good but I'm thinking more along the lines of "top 23-30 good but all the hype, I think, lends him to be drafted as a top 12 or so guy and I don't think it can be supported.

 
Personally, I think Allen will be overhyped/overvalued/overdrafted next year because this has a "Dwayne Bowe from a couple of years ago" kind of feel to it.

The Chargers played 11 games against opponents who were ranked in the bottom 10 in pass defense and, honestly, all teams who faced against heavy doses of the NFC East this year got skewed numbers.

I like allen but I don't see this being something the Chargers are (or become). I think it was situational and if they lose Whiz, they lose a lot. He is an extremely under rated presence there.

I'm not saying he won't be very good but I'm thinking more along the lines of "top 23-30 good but all the hype, I think, lends him to be drafted as a top 12 or so guy and I don't think it can be supported.
good point about the strength of schedule.

 
It seems like Rivers doesn't lean on Allen until he absolutely needs to. He was money in the crunch today (again).
He started going wild once Chris Harris went out for the Broncos - at that point the Broncos brought in their last man standing Quentin Jammer and Rivers went wild picking out Allen vs Jammer.

 
I wouldn't be surprised if they brought in someone else with some speed on the other side. I'd expect Ladarius Green to take another step forward as Gates fades into the sunset. Allen is already a tremendously polished wr and I'd expect him to keep his #1 go to role. It seems like the team moved from a passing offense to more of a ball control offense to control the clock and keep their defense off the field. They really became time of possession hogs and were happy to grind away where early in the year they were more run and gun. I'd say it is a concern that they'll stick with the grind it out offense as it led them to the playoffs and a playoff win.

I guess long story short is that it looks like he'll be a good posession type wr and good red zone option. To me his ceiling is maybe a little higher than it is now but not much. He doesn't seem to have that game breaking Josh Gordon, AJ Green type of talent or explosiveness that I like to target and I don't think he'll have a ton of targets each week and be the focal point of the offense. I think he's a solid WR12-20 type guy which is great but don't know if he's got much upside beyond that. I own him in a keeper league and have been extremely happy with him but there's a good chance that I may look to package him up for an upgrade somewhere else.
My expectations:

1. Malcom Floyd is under contract for two more seasons, $2.75M next season and $3M in 2015. I expect he will be back and start across from Allen.

2. Gates will be back. He is far less effective than in the past, yet he still finished in the top 3 in TE receptions and receiving yards this season. I don't think they will take the cap and PR hits to cut him.

3. I agree that we should see more snaps for Green.

4. Royal is under contract for one more season for $4.5M. I think he will be back, but that seems a bit expensive for what he brings. Could he be restructured/extended to lower that figure?

5. Vincent Brown was a major disappointment, and I think the Chargers should cut him. If not, his snaps should be substantially reduced in favor of Floyd and Green.

 
Personally, I think Allen will be overhyped/overvalued/overdrafted next year because this has a "Dwayne Bowe from a couple of years ago" kind of feel to it.

The Chargers played 11 games against opponents who were ranked in the bottom 10 in pass defense and, honestly, all teams who faced against heavy doses of the NFC East this year got skewed numbers.

I like allen but I don't see this being something the Chargers are (or become). I think it was situational and if they lose Whiz, they lose a lot. He is an extremely under rated presence there.

I'm not saying he won't be very good but I'm thinking more along the lines of "top 23-30 good but all the hype, I think, lends him to be drafted as a top 12 or so guy and I don't think it can be supported.
good point about the strength of schedule.
Not really. One of those top pass defenses was against Philly before Allen was starting. 7 of the remaining 10 were in division (KC & Oak two times each, Den 3 times), so if you assume these things won't change, a large percentage of those "easy" games will still be on their schedule.

 
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Personally, I think Allen will be overhyped/overvalued/overdrafted next year because this has a "Dwayne Bowe from a couple of years ago" kind of feel to it.

The Chargers played 11 games against opponents who were ranked in the bottom 10 in pass defense and, honestly, all teams who faced against heavy doses of the NFC East this year got skewed numbers.

I like allen but I don't see this being something the Chargers are (or become). I think it was situational and if they lose Whiz, they lose a lot. He is an extremely under rated presence there.

I'm not saying he won't be very good but I'm thinking more along the lines of "top 23-30 good but all the hype, I think, lends him to be drafted as a top 12 or so guy and I don't think it can be supported.
good point about the strength of schedule.
Not really. One of those top pass defenses was against Philly before Allen was starting. 7 of the remaining 10 were in division (KC & Oak two times each, Den 3 times), so if you assume these things won't change, a large percentage of those "easy" games will still be on their schedule.
but teams change year to year and you see it every year that teams that sucked last year are good the next and vice versa. Point being you should take the actual SOS into account as it actually happened as opposed to projecting things that might happen or they might not.

 
It seems like Rivers doesn't lean on Allen until he absolutely needs to. He was money in the crunch today (again).
He started going wild once Chris Harris went out for the Broncos - at that point the Broncos brought in their last man standing Quentin Jammer and Rivers went wild picking out Allen vs Jammer.
That's a good point. He was busting all that on Jammer.

 
My biggest concern with Allen is Rivers. How much is left in his tank. He had a great year, but his throwing motion looked brutal.

 
Didn't like his "me" attitude after scoring
Yeah that never happens.
It is just a pet peeve...understand it happens. Being down 17-7 in the 4th is no time to start pointing to the back of your jersey and crossing your arms trying to tell the world you are the ****. I am stating the obvious and I know it happens but it annoying to see.
everybody cant be an emotionless barry sanders, especially WRs

dont draft him though because he pointed to his name on the back of his shirt..............

 
I guess long story short is that it looks like he'll be a good posession type wr and good red zone option. To me his ceiling is maybe a little higher than it is now but not much. He doesn't seem to have that game breaking Josh Gordon, AJ Green type of talent or explosiveness that I like to target and I don't think he'll have a ton of targets each week and be the focal point of the offense. I think he's a solid WR12-20 type guy which is great but don't know if he's got much upside beyond that. I own him in a keeper league and have been extremely happy with him but there's a good chance that I may look to package him up for an upgrade somewhere else.
This is pretty much my assessment as well but it going to be very difficult to package a 21 yr old Allen and feel like you've come out ahead on the return.
Same boat. If I can get something good for him, I'm trading out, as well. But I likely won't and will keep him, and hope to eat my words. But I get a TB Mike Williams feeling from him. I don't mean he'll flop as a sophomore, necessarily. I just don't see Allen as everything people hype him to be.

(Prove me wrong, Keenan. Prove me wrong.)

 
Didn't like his "me" attitude after scoring
Yeah that never happens.
It is just a pet peeve...understand it happens. Being down 17-7 in the 4th is no time to start pointing to the back of your jersey and crossing your arms trying to tell the world you are the ****. I am stating the obvious and I know it happens but it annoying to see.
everybody cant be an emotionless barry sanders, especially WRs

dont draft him though because he pointed to his name on the back of his shirt..............
I don't recall mentioning anything about not drafting him.

 
Personally, I think Allen will be overhyped/overvalued/overdrafted next year because this has a "Dwayne Bowe from a couple of years ago" kind of feel to it.

The Chargers played 11 games against opponents who were ranked in the bottom 10 in pass defense and, honestly, all teams who faced against heavy doses of the NFC East this year got skewed numbers.

I like allen but I don't see this being something the Chargers are (or become). I think it was situational and if they lose Whiz, they lose a lot. He is an extremely under rated presence there.

I'm not saying he won't be very good but I'm thinking more along the lines of "top 23-30 good but all the hype, I think, lends him to be drafted as a top 12 or so guy and I don't think it can be supported.
good point about the strength of schedule.
Not really. One of those top pass defenses was against Philly before Allen was starting. 7 of the remaining 10 were in division (KC & Oak two times each, Den 3 times), so if you assume these things won't change, a large percentage of those "easy" games will still be on their schedule.
but teams change year to year and you see it every year that teams that sucked last year are good the next and vice versa. Point being you should take the actual SOS into account as it actually happened as opposed to projecting things that might happen or they might not.
So you're saying "teams change year to year" and "teams that sucked last year are good the next," as a reason for looking at last years SOS as being important? That makes no sense.

I agree with you that you can't really take last year's SOS ranking and project them forward, but I don't follow how you can look at last year's SOS rankings, say "Allen had an easy SOS last year, so next year's numbers will be down."

ETA-Besides, if you actually look at Allen's production versus those "easy" pass D's, compared to his production against the teams who weren't so "easy" against the pass, you'd see he fared better against the tough pass D's:

11 games against bottom-10 pass Defenses-45 rec, 747 yards, 6 TD (4 catches, 68 yards, .55 TD per game)

6 games against other pass Defenses-34 rec, 462 yards, 4 TD (6 catches, 77 yards, .67 TD per game)

The "easy" defense numbers would extrapolate to 64 rec, 1088 yards, and 9 TD over 16 games.

The "non-easy" defense numbers would extrapolate to 96 catches, 1232 yards, and 11 TD over 16 games.

The SOS argument doesn't seem to hold much water.

 
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He is what he is and might be better with seasoning. If this year is his floor I'm keeping his value for his rise. He needs to get better play calling and become more trustworthy but he has a knack for getting open, as a rookie. His TD presence will keep his floor higher than most young wrs. My biggest worry is Gates losing steam. I like Allen but any WR is hurt when he is the only option so I hope they go after someone to keep the balance. Alexander could be that help if he stays healthy.

 
Just with the eye test, Allen is far beyond what Mike Williams was. Allen hasn't just produced, he has looked really good doing it. He is strong, tough to get down in the open field and gets open with good route running. I think he looks like a guy that can put up around 1200 7 pretty consistently.

 
He is what he is and might be better with seasoning. If this year is his floor I'm keeping his value for his rise. He needs to get better play calling and become more trustworthy but he has a knack for getting open, as a rookie. His TD presence will keep his floor higher than most young wrs. My biggest worry is Gates losing steam. I like Allen but any WR is hurt when he is the only option so I hope they go after someone to keep the balance. Alexander could be that help if he stays healthy.
Don't forget about Green in this equation.

 
Just with the eye test, Allen is far beyond what Mike Williams was. Allen hasn't just produced, he has looked really good doing it. He is strong, tough to get down in the open field and gets open with good route running. I think he looks like a guy that can put up around 1200 7 pretty consistently.
:goodposting:

 
Personally, I think Allen will be overhyped/overvalued/overdrafted next year because this has a "Dwayne Bowe from a couple of years ago" kind of feel to it.

The Chargers played 11 games against opponents who were ranked in the bottom 10 in pass defense and, honestly, all teams who faced against heavy doses of the NFC East this year got skewed numbers.

I like allen but I don't see this being something the Chargers are (or become). I think it was situational and if they lose Whiz, they lose a lot. He is an extremely under rated presence there.

I'm not saying he won't be very good but I'm thinking more along the lines of "top 23-30 good but all the hype, I think, lends him to be drafted as a top 12 or so guy and I don't think it can be supported.
good point about the strength of schedule.
Not really. One of those top pass defenses was against Philly before Allen was starting. 7 of the remaining 10 were in division (KC & Oak two times each, Den 3 times), so if you assume these things won't change, a large percentage of those "easy" games will still be on their schedule.
Yeah, cause things always stay the same in the NFL.

You know these guys spend every second of the off-season cahnging anything and everything that doesn't work.

But the point isn't "let's look at their schedule" in terms of what it will be. The point is "let's look at their schedule" to see what they did and, against whom, and, honestly, every year or two, you just see these quirky scenarios align where a player or team's porduction is just crazy-skewed due to how it lined up. It's like that year a couple of years ago where all these DEs had 10+ sacks and then you looked and saw that 8 out of the 10 Des had a common denominator: They played both the alwful Raiders and the God-awful Cardinals that year and had multiple sacks in those games.

Situation is worth noting.

 
But the point isn't "let's look at their schedule" in terms of what it will be. The point is "let's look at their schedule" to see what they did and, against whom, and, honestly, every year or two, you just see these quirky scenarios align where a player or team's porduction is just crazy-skewed due to how it lined up. It's like that year a couple of years ago where all these DEs had 10+ sacks and then you looked and saw that 8 out of the 10 Des had a common denominator: They played both the alwful Raiders and the God-awful Cardinals that year and had multiple sacks in those games.

Situation is worth noting.
Use your eyeballs, man. The guy can get open, he can make catches in traffic, he has great body control, and a nose for the end zone. He's the #1 WR of a solid NFL QB, with enough other weapons to keep defenses honest. He'll be productive no matter what happens.

The defenses he faces may change; so may the fact that San Diego was 22nd in pass attempts in 2013. Who are you going to pick over him, Dwayne Bowe?

He finished 17th amongst WRs this year in basically 12 games. Here are some of the guys ahead of him who he's likely to outscore next year:

Eric Decker

Pierre Garcon

Alshon Jeffrey (or Brandon Marshall)--will the Bears #2 WR be better than the Chargers #1 WR? [No.]

I'd also rather have Allen than Desean (Go Bears) or Vincent Jackson. Add in older guys like Andre Johnson and Anquan Boldin that he may pass and you're loking at a top WR2, low WR1 ranking, which is probably where he'll be drafted.

There aren't many guys behind him who could plausibly perform better in 2014. Here's a list of a few possibilities there:

TY Hilton

Torrey Smith (?)

Victor Cruz

Julio Jones

Someone in Minnesota if they get a QB?

Someone in Oakland if they get a QB?

That's it, and I think Hilton, Cruz, and Jones are the only real threats back there.

 
Shutout said:
Bayhawks said:
Personally, I think Allen will be overhyped/overvalued/overdrafted next year because this has a "Dwayne Bowe from a couple of years ago" kind of feel to it.

The Chargers played 11 games against opponents who were ranked in the bottom 10 in pass defense and, honestly, all teams who faced against heavy doses of the NFC East this year got skewed numbers.

I like allen but I don't see this being something the Chargers are (or become). I think it was situational and if they lose Whiz, they lose a lot. He is an extremely under rated presence there.

I'm not saying he won't be very good but I'm thinking more along the lines of "top 23-30 good but all the hype, I think, lends him to be drafted as a top 12 or so guy and I don't think it can be supported.
good point about the strength of schedule.
Not really. One of those top pass defenses was against Philly before Allen was starting. 7 of the remaining 10 were in division (KC & Oak two times each, Den 3 times), so if you assume these things won't change, a large percentage of those "easy" games will still be on their schedule.
Yeah, cause things always stay the same in the NFL.

You know these guys spend every second of the off-season cahnging anything and everything that doesn't work.

But the point isn't "let's look at their schedule" in terms of what it will be. The point is "let's look at their schedule" to see what they did and, against whom, and, honestly, every year or two, you just see these quirky scenarios align where a player or team's porduction is just crazy-skewed due to how it lined up. It's like that year a couple of years ago where all these DEs had 10+ sacks and then you looked and saw that 8 out of the 10 Des had a common denominator: They played both the alwful Raiders and the God-awful Cardinals that year and had multiple sacks in those games.

Situation is worth noting.
I'm not sure what you are getting at.

You say" Let's look at their schedule to see what they did and against whom." Are you suggesting that Allen compiled his stats against week D's?

Because as I posted earlier, that's not accurate.

The person who originally posted about SOS said (paraphrasing here) "Allen faced 11 weak pass D's this year, that's not likely to stay the same." He ignored the fact that 7 of those 11 games against week pass D's were in the same division, and those teams will be on the Charger's 2014 schedule again. Then, there's also the fact that Allen did better in his games against the tougher pass D's the Chargers faced. So:

1-Many of the weak D's SD faced will be on their schedule again.

2-Allen did even better against the tougher pass D's.

Trying to use Allen's SOS as a "con" when analyzing his situation doesn't work. If those weak D's stay weak, he gets to play them again. If they get better, he has shown that he can fare well against tough D's as well.

 
CalBear said:
Shutout said:
But the point isn't "let's look at their schedule" in terms of what it will be. The point is "let's look at their schedule" to see what they did and, against whom, and, honestly, every year or two, you just see these quirky scenarios align where a player or team's porduction is just crazy-skewed due to how it lined up. It's like that year a couple of years ago where all these DEs had 10+ sacks and then you looked and saw that 8 out of the 10 Des had a common denominator: They played both the alwful Raiders and the God-awful Cardinals that year and had multiple sacks in those games.

Situation is worth noting.
Use your eyeballs, man. The guy can get open, he can make catches in traffic, he has great body control, and a nose for the end zone. He's the #1 WR of a solid NFL QB, with enough other weapons to keep defenses honest. He'll be productive no matter what happens.

The defenses he faces may change; so may the fact that San Diego was 22nd in pass attempts in 2013. Who are you going to pick over him, Dwayne Bowe?

He finished 17th amongst WRs this year in basically 12 games. Here are some of the guys ahead of him who he's likely to outscore next year:

Eric Decker

Pierre Garcon

Alshon Jeffrey (or Brandon Marshall)--will the Bears #2 WR be better than the Chargers #1 WR? [No.]

I'd also rather have Allen than Desean (Go Bears) or Vincent Jackson. Add in older guys like Andre Johnson and Anquan Boldin that he may pass and you're loking at a top WR2, low WR1 ranking, which is probably where he'll be drafted.

There aren't many guys behind him who could plausibly perform better in 2014. Here's a list of a few possibilities there:

TY Hilton

Torrey Smith (?)

Victor Cruz

Julio Jones

Someone in Minnesota if they get a QB?

Someone in Oakland if they get a QB?

That's it, and I think Hilton, Cruz, and Jones are the only real threats back there.
I don't think Jones should be considered "behind" Allen. Jones is a clear FF WR1. Allen is, IMO, a WR2 who COULD play at WR1 levels if he improves in his sophomore year. If Eli hadn't just had the worst season of his career, I'd probably have Cruz ahead of him, as well. As is, I wouldn't be suprised if I end up with Cruz projected slightly ahead of Allen, or at worst, in the same tier.

 
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CalBear said:
Shutout said:
But the point isn't "let's look at their schedule" in terms of what it will be. The point is "let's look at their schedule" to see what they did and, against whom, and, honestly, every year or two, you just see these quirky scenarios align where a player or team's porduction is just crazy-skewed due to how it lined up. It's like that year a couple of years ago where all these DEs had 10+ sacks and then you looked and saw that 8 out of the 10 Des had a common denominator: They played both the alwful Raiders and the God-awful Cardinals that year and had multiple sacks in those games.

Situation is worth noting.
Use your eyeballs, man. The guy can get open, he can make catches in traffic, he has great body control, and a nose for the end zone. He's the #1 WR of a solid NFL QB, with enough other weapons to keep defenses honest. He'll be productive no matter what happens.

The defenses he faces may change; so may the fact that San Diego was 22nd in pass attempts in 2013. Who are you going to pick over him, Dwayne Bowe?

He finished 17th amongst WRs this year in basically 12 games. Here are some of the guys ahead of him who he's likely to outscore next year:

Eric Decker

Pierre Garcon

Alshon Jeffrey (or Brandon Marshall)--will the Bears #2 WR be better than the Chargers #1 WR? [No.]

I'd also rather have Allen than Desean (Go Bears) or Vincent Jackson. Add in older guys like Andre Johnson and Anquan Boldin that he may pass and you're loking at a top WR2, low WR1 ranking, which is probably where he'll be drafted.

There aren't many guys behind him who could plausibly perform better in 2014. Here's a list of a few possibilities there:

TY Hilton

Torrey Smith (?)

Victor Cruz

Julio Jones

Someone in Minnesota if they get a QB?

Someone in Oakland if they get a QB?

That's it, and I think Hilton, Cruz, and Jones are the only real threats back there.
I don't think Jones should be considered "behind" Allen. Jones is a clear FF WR1. Allen is, IMO, a WR2 who COULD play at WR1 levels if he improves in his sophomore year. If Eli hadn't just had the worst season of his career, I'd probably have Cruz ahead of him, as well. As is, I wouldn't be suprised if I end up with Cruz projected slightly ahead of Allen, or at worst, in the same tier.
I'm just talking about how many fantasy points they scored this year. I definitely would rank Julio ahead of Allen for 2014 as long as Julio looks healthy coming back. But I would rank Allen ahead of a number of the guys he finished behind this year, as noted.

 
Allen played in 17 games this season -- regular season games 2-16 and both playoff games. He didn't play in week 1, then Floyd got hurt in the first half of game 2, and Allen got in for the rest of the game in his place (Floyd played 36 of 84 snaps, and Allen played 49 in that game).

From there forward (regular season games 3-16 and the 2 playoff games), Allen played 93.2% of the Chargers' offensive snaps. CalBear said he played "basically" 12 games, which is inaccurate. If you want to focus only on the regular season, IMO it makes sense to focus on the last 14 games. But I see no reason not to also include his 2 playoff games in any assessment of his performance, which brings us to 16 games. Very convenient.

In those 16 games, he had 77/1175/10 receiving on 110 targets with 4 drops and 1 fumble. (Note that ESPN and PFF both show 1 fumble, but Rotoworld and PFR both show 2 fumbles; not sure of the reason for the discrepancy.)

Rivers was intercepted 3 times targeting him, and I recall that Allen was specifically responsible on one of them, not sure about the other two. He will get in better sync with Rivers with another offseason to build upon this year, so I don't think the interceptions are a problem for Allen. I don't think 4 drops out of 81 catchable balls is bad at all for a rookie WR, and the fumble isn't a big deal.

(Note: all data from PFF.)

77/1175/10 equates to 177.5 points and 11.1 ppg in standard non-PPR format (not penalizing the fumble). For 2013, that would have ranked him as the #12 WR in total points and the #15 WR in ppg in that format.

That stat line equates to 254.5 points and 15.9 ppg in standard PPR format (1 PPR) (not penalizing the fumble). For 2013, that would have ranked him as the #14 WR in total points and the #18 WR in ppg in that format.

Beyond those numbers, consider the following:

Per PFF:

- Allen was the #10 overall WR.

- Allen was the #8 WR when considering only his receiving (i.e., ignoring rushing, blocking, etc.).

- Rivers had a 118.1 passer rating when targeting Allen, which is #8 among all WRs with more than 25 targets on the season.

- Allen was the #17 WR in Yards per Pass Route Run among all WRs with more than 25 targets on the season.

Per Football Outsiders:

- Allen was the #8 WR in Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement (DYAR).

- Allen was the #5 WR in Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).

Per Advanced NFL Stats:

- Allen was the #8 WR in Win Probability Added (WPA).

- Allen was the #9 WR in Expected Points Added (EPA).

- Allen was the #7 WR in Success Rate among all WRs with more than 25 targets on the season.

- Allen was the #11 WR in Catch Rate among all WRs with more than 25 targets on the season.

- Allen was the #5 WR in Yards per Target (YPT) among all WRs with more than 25 targets on the season.

All of this seems to bode well for Allen's future. It seems reasonable to think he will improve going forward, and it also seems reasonable to think the Chargers offense could also improve around him (e.g., continuing offensive line improvement). IMO all of this suggests Allen will be a safe WR2 and potential low end WR1 for fantasy purposes over the next few years at least.

 
Allen played in 17 games this season -- regular season games 2-16 and both playoff games. He didn't play in week 1, then Floyd got hurt in the first half of game 2, and Allen got in for the rest of the game in his place (Floyd played 36 of 84 snaps, and Allen played 49 in that game).

From there forward (regular season games 3-16 and the 2 playoff games), Allen played 93.2% of the Chargers' offensive snaps. CalBear said he played "basically" 12 games, which is inaccurate. If you want to focus only on the regular season, IMO it makes sense to focus on the last 14 games. But I see no reason not to also include his 2 playoff games in any assessment of his performance, which brings us to 16 games. Very convenient.

In those 16 games, he had 77/1175/10 receiving on 110 targets with 4 drops and 1 fumble. (Note that ESPN and PFF both show 1 fumble, but Rotoworld and PFR both show 2 fumbles; not sure of the reason for the discrepancy.)

Rivers was intercepted 3 times targeting him, and I recall that Allen was specifically responsible on one of them, not sure about the other two. He will get in better sync with Rivers with another offseason to build upon this year, so I don't think the interceptions are a problem for Allen. I don't think 4 drops out of 81 catchable balls is bad at all for a rookie WR, and the fumble isn't a big deal.

(Note: all data from PFF.)

77/1175/10 equates to 177.5 points and 11.1 ppg in standard non-PPR format (not penalizing the fumble). For 2013, that would have ranked him as the #12 WR in total points and the #15 WR in ppg in that format.

That stat line equates to 254.5 points and 15.9 ppg in standard PPR format (1 PPR) (not penalizing the fumble). For 2013, that would have ranked him as the #14 WR in total points and the #18 WR in ppg in that format.

Beyond those numbers, consider the following:

Per PFF:

- Allen was the #10 overall WR.

- Allen was the #8 WR when considering only his receiving (i.e., ignoring rushing, blocking, etc.).

- Rivers had a 118.1 passer rating when targeting Allen, which is #8 among all WRs with more than 25 targets on the season.

- Allen was the #17 WR in Yards per Pass Route Run among all WRs with more than 25 targets on the season.

Per Football Outsiders:

- Allen was the #8 WR in Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement (DYAR).

- Allen was the #5 WR in Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).

Per Advanced NFL Stats:

- Allen was the #8 WR in Win Probability Added (WPA).

- Allen was the #9 WR in Expected Points Added (EPA).

- Allen was the #7 WR in Success Rate among all WRs with more than 25 targets on the season.

- Allen was the #11 WR in Catch Rate among all WRs with more than 25 targets on the season.

- Allen was the #5 WR in Yards per Target (YPT) among all WRs with more than 25 targets on the season.

All of this seems to bode well for Allen's future. It seems reasonable to think he will improve going forward, and it also seems reasonable to think the Chargers offense could also improve around him (e.g., continuing offensive line improvement). IMO all of this suggests Allen will be a safe WR2 and potential low end WR1 for fantasy purposes over the next few years at least.
Good info. And I agree... WR2 with WR1 upside seems about right.

 
Rotoworld:

Keenan Allen has focused on improving his speed this offseason.

One of the main reasons Allen fell to the third round of last year's draft was a dog-legged 4.71 forty at his Pro Day. But he was coming off a PCL tear and has now been able to put some effort into gaining long speed. Allen, who posted one of the best rookie years by a wideout in NFL history, will need that extra juice as he adjusts to being the focal point of defenses. We're confident he'll be able to make the adjustment while getting peppered with targets as Philip Rivers' go-to guy.

Source: ESPN.com

Jun 4 - 11:18 AM
 
Where does this guy fall in keeper leagues? PPR of course. Somewhere between Julio and Marshal?

 
Where does this guy fall in keeper leagues? PPR of course. Somewhere between Julio and Marshal?
what do you mean in like start ups? or if you have a limited number of keepers and you are deciding between the 3 and can only keep 2?

For me Id still take Brandon Marshall over Keneen right now in redraft and a small keeper format . In true dynasty its alittle closer

 
Where does this guy fall in keeper leagues? PPR of course. Somewhere between Julio and Marshal?
what do you mean in like start ups? or if you have a limited number of keepers and you are deciding between the 3 and can only keep 2?For me Id still take Brandon Marshall over Keneen right now in redraft and a small keeper format . In true dynasty its alittle closer
Ahh sorry I didn't elaborate on the league. Not a startup but can keep 3 players.
 
Let's talk Allen 2014.

I've seen him come off the board between WR11 and WR16. I think he will be a very solid pick as your second receiver, but is anyone worried much about Malcom Floyd coming back and stealing targets? Allen passed the eye test for me last year, I'm quite confident in his talent. But is Rivers able to support two fantasy WR starters?

 
Let's talk Allen 2014.

I've seen him come off the board between WR11 and WR16. I think he will be a very solid pick as your second receiver, but is anyone worried much about Malcom Floyd coming back and stealing targets? Allen passed the eye test for me last year, I'm quite confident in his talent. But is Rivers able to support two fantasy WR starters?
malcolm floyd gets hurt puttin on his pants. I wouldnt worry about him much.

 
He's not generating the hype of the likes of Patterson, Evans, and Watkins, but he should be. If you are somehow able to snag him as your WR2, you should be ecstatic.

 
He's not generating the hype of the likes of Patterson, Evans, and Watkins, but he should be. If you are somehow able to snag him as your WR2, you should be ecstatic.
Maybe nobody is talking about him but he's going earlier in drafts than those guys. In redraft, he's going right after Alshon Jeffery and Randall Cobb. Dynasty isn't much different.

I'm in a redraft league that lets you keep 1 guy and I think it will be Keenan Allen because I can keep him for an 8th rounder, but I don't like it. I'm tempted to keep Joique for an 8th instead even though he's being drafted over 2 rounds later.

I like Allen and he's by far the most talented on his team, but he's going in the late 3rd round. That means he's a WR2 on a WR heavy team. IMO, there's a major drop off between Jeffery/Cobb and Allen which is the next guy. I'd probably take him in the 5th if he was there, but even then you'd be passing on Crabtree, Harvin, Desean, Floyd. I feel like that's the tier he belongs in.

Most of his points late in the year came in a 3 game span where he caught 8 passes in those games...just 5 of those were for TDs. He didn't catch more than 3 passes in those games. If Floyd can stay healthy and Green emerges and they rely on the run game like they did late last year (they won games because of it) I just don't see how Allen can be a reliable, high end WR2 (or WR1 on a RB heavy team) like he is being drafted as.

 
I like Allen and he's by far the most talented on his team, but he's going in the late 3rd round. That means he's a WR2 on a WR heavy team. IMO, there's a major drop off between Jeffery/Cobb and Allen which is the next guy. I'd probably take him in the 5th if he was there, but even then you'd be passing on Crabtree, Harvin, Desean, Floyd. I feel like that's the tier he belongs in.

Most of his points late in the year came in a 3 game span where he caught 8 passes in those games...just 5 of those were for TDs. He didn't catch more than 3 passes in those games. If Floyd can stay healthy and Green emerges and they rely on the run game like they did late last year (they won games because of it) I just don't see how Allen can be a reliable, high end WR2 (or WR1 on a RB heavy team) like he is being drafted as.
You are severely cherry-picking here; you're saying "most of his points" came in the three games he scored TDs in...well, guess what, that's because he scored TDs in them. The two games before and the game after that three-game stretch, he went for 9/124, 8/106, and 5/89. So for the last six games of the season, which includes the three games you mentioned, he had 30/430/5, or an average of 5/71/.83, which is solid WR1 territory.

"But what if he hadn't scored two TDs in week 12?" Well, what if he had scored a TD in week 11 instead? The distribution doesn't matter; he was extremely productive at the end of the season.

And I just don't see how you can put him a tier with Harvin, who has less than 1000 yards and 4 TDs over the past two seasons combined, and has never had 1000 receiving yards, and Floyd, who's clearly not the best WR on his own team, and Desean who's switching teams, and Crabtree, who has exactly the same number of 1000-yards seasons as Allen (1) in five years in the league. And why is he below Cobb who's never had a 1000-yard season?

 
My point is that from Week 4 - 13 he got all his points from being the main/only target in the passing game, but he only put up 3 TD's in that span.

The last 4 games of the season he was used in the opposite way. He didn't have more than 5 catches in any game and just had a boat load of TDs.

While I like that he looks like he can do it all, I'm just not sure he'll be asked to do that with Floyd and Green there and after they saw how they were winning games while riding the run game. He was basically ONLY a redzone target in those last few weeks. And do you think if Green emerges this year that will continue?

Green didn't catch any passes in weeks 14-16, which are the weeks Allen scored 5 TDs. Was he injured or just not used? Because if you look at Weeks 12, 13, and 17, Green scored a TD and Allen didn't. Doesn't that make you think that maybe Green will be the bigger redzone passing threat than Allen? If so, then you're relying on his volume of catches for his value and I personally think Rivers and Floyd have always had a good connection.

I'm not doubting Allen's talents. I'm just doubting his situation. Those guys that I listed, Harvin, Crabtree, DJax and Floyd are probably the WR1's on their team this year, just like Allen is. So what makes Allen more valuable than him? Throw out Floyd if you're going to nitpick on that one with Fitz and focus on the others.

 

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