Yup, looking good for those that have Pollard and can count on a possible full workload
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RB Ezekiel Elliott, NE (6 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
whole-show
Footballguy
Elliott will play Sunday per Schefter
FairWarning
Footballguy
Excellent, hope he takes carries away from Pollard today.
popeye
Footballguy
Exactly!! That said, it’s tough to start Pollard because we don’t know if Zeke will be effective and how many touches Dallas will give him after last week’s great game
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The Frankman
Footballguy
jm192
Footballguy
How much of it is Zeke slowing down and how much is Dak being out, injuries to the O-line, Zeke being banged up?
I appreciate the get out while there's time sense in dynasty. What about redraft?
I think he can be more effective this coming season. I do worry/wonder how much Pollard eats into the workload.
I appreciate the get out while there's time sense in dynasty. What about redraft?
I think he can be more effective this coming season. I do worry/wonder how much Pollard eats into the workload.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
In viewing Amari or Zeke for this year in redraft, I mainly just look at their production in games 1-5 last year. But Lamb is a tremendous slot WR last year and I’m also liking Pollard this year bc he’s such an efficient back.
The demise of one Ezekiel Elliott has been greatly exaggerated. Outside of last year he's been a grade A bluechip player every season going back a decade to OSU. He was built to play RB. He's the most professional running back in the NFL - considering onfield only.
Remember early in his career going thru off field issues when Zeke couldn't practice all week inseason just to be cleared late in the week and go out produce 125 and 1.5 TDs?
The continued chatter of Tony Pollard eating into Zeke's touches because he looks more athletic is funny IMO.
Shortly after the season I offered the 1.08 and RoJo for Zeke and it got accepted, I was happily surprised.
Remember early in his career going thru off field issues when Zeke couldn't practice all week inseason just to be cleared late in the week and go out produce 125 and 1.5 TDs?
The continued chatter of Tony Pollard eating into Zeke's touches because he looks more athletic is funny IMO.
Shortly after the season I offered the 1.08 and RoJo for Zeke and it got accepted, I was happily surprised.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
That is a good get in my opinion.
Elliot will be 26 years old this season and I expect him to be his usual self and shut up all he folks saying he is washed up. At least for a few seasons until he is actually is washed up and then those folks will say see I told you so.
Win some championships while they are focused on exit strategy.
I have looked at this from a lot of different angles and not saying I have looked at them all, but everything I have seen points to Elliot having a bounce back season in 2021 and what he did in 2020 was still top 12. He just fell out of the top 3 last year.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
I don't care how well he speaks as long as he runs and catches well.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Man ran fine first 5 games. They all struggled after Dak was lost. Gonna be alright I’ll take him at the discount if I’m drafting in the back half.
The popular narrative at the moment is that Zeke should get a pass for last year because Dak got hurt, the offensive line suffered a lot of injuries and the defense was bad, etc. I get it and it's certainly possible that he regains his previous form this season but I also think there's a chance that we're seeing a running back in slow decline. He actually wasn't so amazing in the 4 games when Dak was in:
Week 1: 22/96/1, 3/31/1 @ LAR (granted, very strong performance against this defense)
Week 2: 22/89/1, 6/33/0 vs ATL
Week 3: 14/34/1, 6/24/0 @ SEA
Week 4: 12/54/0, 8/71/0 vs CLE
Total: 70/273/3, 3.90 YPC, 23/159/1
Not bad but not great - being in shootouts in weeks 2-4 padded the receiving numbers.
Here's a 3 year trend:
2018: 304 carries, 1434 yards, 4.7 YPC
2019: 301 carries, 1357 yards, 4.5 YPC
2020: 244 carries, 979 yards, 4.0 YPC
The other factor that can't be overlooked is Tony Pollard. No, he's not going to take the lead job by any stretch but could he take more carries? Yes. Zeke had 3 runs over 20 yards last year in 244 carries. Pollard had 4 in 101 carries. Pollard averaged 2.4 rushing yards after contact per attempt. Zeke averaged 2.1. They are distinctly different kinds of runners and a great pair for the Cowboys but I don't think Zeke is going back to 300 carry territory. The Cowboys should have around 470 carries as a team, give or take 20-30. I think you'll see a split along these lines (assuming everyone is healthy) --
Zeke: 255
Pollard: 125
Dak: 55
Other: 35
He can still be highly productive with that workload but I don't think we're going to see the Zeke of 2018-2019.
Week 1: 22/96/1, 3/31/1 @ LAR (granted, very strong performance against this defense)
Week 2: 22/89/1, 6/33/0 vs ATL
Week 3: 14/34/1, 6/24/0 @ SEA
Week 4: 12/54/0, 8/71/0 vs CLE
Total: 70/273/3, 3.90 YPC, 23/159/1
Not bad but not great - being in shootouts in weeks 2-4 padded the receiving numbers.
Here's a 3 year trend:
2018: 304 carries, 1434 yards, 4.7 YPC
2019: 301 carries, 1357 yards, 4.5 YPC
2020: 244 carries, 979 yards, 4.0 YPC
The other factor that can't be overlooked is Tony Pollard. No, he's not going to take the lead job by any stretch but could he take more carries? Yes. Zeke had 3 runs over 20 yards last year in 244 carries. Pollard had 4 in 101 carries. Pollard averaged 2.4 rushing yards after contact per attempt. Zeke averaged 2.1. They are distinctly different kinds of runners and a great pair for the Cowboys but I don't think Zeke is going back to 300 carry territory. The Cowboys should have around 470 carries as a team, give or take 20-30. I think you'll see a split along these lines (assuming everyone is healthy) --
Zeke: 255
Pollard: 125
Dak: 55
Other: 35
He can still be highly productive with that workload but I don't think we're going to see the Zeke of 2018-2019.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
If one pro rated the 4 game sample to 16 (oy vey this type of thing is going to harder to do for 17 games now) Elliot would have ended up with 280 rushing attempts 1092 rushing yards 12 TD 92 receptions 636 yards 4 TD
While the rushing yardage is lower than Elliots career average of 4.5 ypc it was still great and not only good in my opinion.
Unless you think the change in YPC is permanent for some reason, why do you think Elliot won't return to his career average of 4.5 YPC?
Pollard had 86 rushing attempts and 20 targets as a rookie in 2019 and Elliot had 301 rushing attempts and 71 targets that same season.
In 2020 Elliot missed one game and was hurt enough that he didnt start enough in another game, not sure which game that was right now. Pollard is listed as having two starts in 2020 by PFR.
In the game vs SF that Elliot Missed Pollard had 12 rushing attempts 9 targets 6 receptions. So 23% of Pollards 40 targets last season occured in this one game where Elliot was inactive.
I would say your prognostication is too bullish for Pollard and too Bearish for Elliot as far as distribution of rushing attempts goes.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Dak played exactly 2/3rds of Week 5.They were averaging 32.6 points and were 2-3, with 4 shootouts (insane pace.) Lost 6 of their next 7, scored a total of 105. The pace evaporated.
Snap counts for EE first 5 weeks:
88%, 25 touches
93%, 28 touches
98%, 20 touches
77%, 20 touches
82%, 20 touches
Finished the season 69% Snap Count; take out the game he missed, it’s still a career low 73%. His snap count percentage for his first 4 years had consistently been over 80% (87% the year he played 10G followed by 84% & 83%.)
Weird year. I’m bullish on Elliott and think he bounces back. If on the other hand you want to construct a narrative that supports the “he’s washed, get out while you can” theory, you can parse stats and pump up Pollard to help yourself believe that. I’m not saying that’s terrible, we write those narratives in our head all the time. It’s within the range of outcomes and none of us knows for sure.
You should be comfortable with the idea you are going to get some calls wrong. It happens every year, we’re human and have imperfect information. I try to look at data sets neutrally. Just as a for instance, I really like Trey Sermon this year. But Raheem Mostert still has the ability to run 23 mph with a football in his hands and Shanahan has had like one RB with 200 touches in the last decade.
Circling back to Dallas, I think there’s a lot of data and history which makes Zeke a safe bet to bet a top 8 back once again. But there is uncertainty and you just have to weigh whether you believe he’ll see positive regression in his age 26 year which mirrors his 21-24 production, or negative regression which his age 25 season foretold. Place your bets, gentlemen.
Snap counts for EE first 5 weeks:
88%, 25 touches
93%, 28 touches
98%, 20 touches
77%, 20 touches
82%, 20 touches
Finished the season 69% Snap Count; take out the game he missed, it’s still a career low 73%. His snap count percentage for his first 4 years had consistently been over 80% (87% the year he played 10G followed by 84% & 83%.)
Weird year. I’m bullish on Elliott and think he bounces back. If on the other hand you want to construct a narrative that supports the “he’s washed, get out while you can” theory, you can parse stats and pump up Pollard to help yourself believe that. I’m not saying that’s terrible, we write those narratives in our head all the time. It’s within the range of outcomes and none of us knows for sure.
You should be comfortable with the idea you are going to get some calls wrong. It happens every year, we’re human and have imperfect information. I try to look at data sets neutrally. Just as a for instance, I really like Trey Sermon this year. But Raheem Mostert still has the ability to run 23 mph with a football in his hands and Shanahan has had like one RB with 200 touches in the last decade.
Circling back to Dallas, I think there’s a lot of data and history which makes Zeke a safe bet to bet a top 8 back once again. But there is uncertainty and you just have to weigh whether you believe he’ll see positive regression in his age 26 year which mirrors his 21-24 production, or negative regression which his age 25 season foretold. Place your bets, gentlemen.
I agree 100% with this but would make a distinction.
He was amazing or typical Zeke for fantasy football purposes. I toss out partial games, his 4 full games with Dak put him on pace for 92 catches, 280 carries and 16 TD's and you won't find a RB with that kind of volume who is not good at fantasy.
Real life he looked sluggish. I recall the week before Dak got hurt discussing the top of the first round busts from last year(CMC, Barkley, Thomas) and we both concluded that Zeke was one of the few non-busts of the top 6 but he was not looking great doing it but mainly catching a bunch of balls and scoring TD's. I don't think Zeke would dispute any of this, I mean we got the guy he hired to train him this off-season saying his feet looked heavy. There is a reason we are all reading puff pieces about him being recommitted and in better shape.
Time and fantasy production has blurred people's memories. His fantasy production took a hit when Dak went down but he never looked like an elite RB last year.
But volume remains king when it comes to RB's in fantasy and while Pollard should get more work I still think it's comfortable to assume that Elliot will be a high volume RB. Still if not for the puff pieces about the work he's putting in this off-season I'd be avoiding him but to me those puff pieces are impactful. It's what I needed to hear to get back on board. He heard and commented on the talk that he's washed up, that Pollard is better, etc, etc. I like he did not sulk or pout about it, recognized a need to put in the work to show he's still one of the better RB's in the game, has pride in his craft.
He's older with a lot of wear and tear and I don't expect him to look like he did a few years ago either but I do think he'll look a lot better then he did last year, he's got better offensive coaching around him then the Garrett led teams and in general will be one of the more high volume three down RB's on potentially one of the better offenses in the league. That's worth a mid to late first round pick to me.
pantherclub
Footballguy
He is a late second to me. He ran lethargic and looked used up at the end of the season. Dak or no dak he looked like a lumbering old rb
pantherclub
Footballguy
He didn't go over 100 yards since week 6.
STEADYMOBBIN 22
Footballguy
For fantasy I agree with Panther but for different reasons. I’d be more worried about the touches. Elliot has plenty in the tank.
Non fantasy- One of the few 3 down backs in existence. He’s not Emmitt Smith but he’s close. Elliots best attribute is that he almost always gets positive yardage/falls forward. Probably a slightly better receiver but not as shifty and not even close to the stone cold blocker Emmitt was.
Non fantasy- One of the few 3 down backs in existence. He’s not Emmitt Smith but he’s close. Elliots best attribute is that he almost always gets positive yardage/falls forward. Probably a slightly better receiver but not as shifty and not even close to the stone cold blocker Emmitt was.
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BobbyLayne
Footballguy
He’s the Joey Chestnut of running backs
electric Ape
Footballguy
In my experience most fantasy players aren’t the best at evaluating RBs independent of context. Backs who get great blocking and lots of scoring opportunities are often described as explosive or having juice whereas backs with bad blocking and nowhere to run are often described as sluggish or lethargic.
In 2020 Zeke lost pretty much every member of his o-line and his QB and played on a team with no defense and disastrous game scripts week after week. The offense fell into nearly complete dysfunction and the results in the running game should not surprise anyone. Had Derrick Henry played on the Cowboys last season fans would be saying he’s washed and sluggish too.
I’m not trying to argue that Ezekiel Elliot is a special unicorn, certainly he is subject to the same wear and tear that grinds down every high volume RB over time. To my eye he isn’t as fast or explosive as he once was but he didn’t fall off a cliff either. I respect the boldness of the Zeke is a late 2nd rounder take but I think he’s far more likely to be a first round value
I'm in 100% agreement with the bolded.
As for the non-bolded I think part of his lethargy was related to related to his conditioning. I'm a firm believer in wear and tear for RB's and I also think RB's are aging worse then ever but better conditioning and his volume I expect him to have puts him a good round higher in redraft then you have him. Now in dynasty I'd be trying to hot potato him now or as soon he shows well.
pantherclub
Footballguy
He is in the 2nd tier for me for running backs, then I am going Kelce, top WR or Kittle over him therefor putting him on my board at the end of the 2nd. Now way I pass on a top WR/TE for him.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
So you think Elliot was lazy and not at peak conditioning?
Or was he playing through an injury?
I heard that he was and playing through an injury and that can make a guy not look as good as their normal self.
He was not in good shape. Period.
I'd add I won't call him lazy but as you get older and get more wear and tear you got to work harder to maintain. I don't think he did that. I think he is doing that now.
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nittanylion
Footballguy
I think it's a whole lot simpler than many here are making it. The Cowboys entered 2020 with very high expectations, both within, and outside of the organization. Once Dak went down, the 2020 Cowboys' Season was over, and he knew it. I'm sure it was something many felt at all levels. I know plenty of fans did. At that point, I think he just stopped giving a damn. Whether you want to say he 'lost heart', 'lacked motivation' 'didn't give maximum effort', 'stopped playing hard', 'packed it in'...that's what it looked like to me - it looked like he was 'playing out the string', waiting for the Season to be over. That can happen when something catastrophic occurs that takes the wind out of one's sails, which is exactly what happened in Dallas when Dak went down...IMHO.
JetMaxx
Footballguy
The point I have tried to make and I believe pantherclub as well is that he did not look good before Dak went down. Again, he was good for fantasy, not the same thing. That's my take, hard to sit on a fantasy message board and say a guy did not look good when he's putting up big fantasy stats and have a lot of support for what you are saying. But I though was heading for a Trent Richardson like rookie season even before Dak ever went down, which is to say fool proof for fantasy due mainly to the right kind of volume but as I learned the hard way back then not necessarily playing at a high level.
rockaction
Footballguy
The Cowboys have an out in his contract next year. If he wants it to get picked up or restructure for a decent amount, he'll have to hold up beyond then.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
couple Zeke thoughts today:
- Elliot has always been a Volume play. I was listening to a podcast today and they were talking about a thing called expected fantasy points. Now I don’t know where to find that data. Basically, based on where are you getting your touches, what type of touches, D&D, field position, based on situation the formula comes up with “expected fantasy football points.” Zeke has never been that good. Like in his glory years he was a top-five back and like 15th expected points.
- If you are in Dynasty and you’re looking for an opportunity to move Zeke, wait until the third week of August. The Cowboys are going to be on Hard Knocks for the third time. Guarantee you’re going to hear all kinds of talk about how much they’re going to use Zeke and what phenomenal shape he’s in. And there’s gonna be a huge bump. If you’re holding there aren’t going to be too many more windows to move him for a younger back + a pick.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I strike the Ogre with my broadsword.
The expected fantasy points would be based on what an average player does with a rushing attempt or target. If you are hearing that EE has never been good, what I think they mean is his EFP have been below that average.
Not sure about this but its possible I suppose.
As with any stat without context its somewhat meaningless. Who had better EFP than Elliot? Considering how well he has done so far in his career it would take some real pretzel logic for EE to end up below average at this or anything.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
starts at 9:52I strike the Ogre with my broadsword.
The expected fantasy points would be based on what an average player does with a rushing attempt or target. If you are hearing that EE has never been good, what I think they mean is his EFP have been below that average.
Not sure about this but its possible I suppose.
As with any stat without context its somewhat meaningless. Who had better EFP than Elliot? Considering how well he has done so far in his career it would take some real pretzel logic for EE to end up below average at this or anything.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Okay. I try to use a shield bash on the Ogre.
( I know you meant down and distance but I am quite amused by this at the moment )
Biabreakable
Footballguy
So what Mike is saying is that Elliot was very bad in FPE last season, but when he mentions this from previous seasons, he says Elliot was 14th in FPE in 2017 (thats good but Mikes tone downplays this fact) number 53 in 2018 number 23 in 2019 then 164 in 2020 (which was very bad).
Again though without seeing the full lists for each year its hard to put this into context. I am guessing they have a certain minimum number of opportunities for a player to qualify and that there are some players not getting the ball very much who do well with this stat. I mean all it takes is one big play and not too many other plays for a guy to have extremely high FPE.
While you could say that being 53 in FPE in 2018 is not very good Elliot had a 2k season that year, so I dont care.
I think we know that as volume goes up efficiency tends to go down, Mike even goes on to say that he does not think Pollard would be able to produce as well as Elliot over a longer time frame.
Picked up this tidbit from Rich Hribar (who's excellent) on Twitter:
Zeke was 5/12 converting carries from the one yard line in 2020. He was 12/14 over his first four years. he was 5/22 inside of the 5 (22.7%) last year after converting 53.7% of those carries prior to last season.
Is that solely because of the injuries to the line and Dalton vs Dak? Or solely because he was out of shape? In decline? Guessing a little of all of those things.
Edit to add:
Full article is here. Great stuff!
Zeke was 5/12 converting carries from the one yard line in 2020. He was 12/14 over his first four years. he was 5/22 inside of the 5 (22.7%) last year after converting 53.7% of those carries prior to last season.
Is that solely because of the injuries to the line and Dalton vs Dak? Or solely because he was out of shape? In decline? Guessing a little of all of those things.
Edit to add:
Full article is here. Great stuff!
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STEADYMOBBIN 22
Footballguy
QB - You already mentioned it.
LT - Tyrion Smith - this future gold jacket wearing LT was out for most of the year.
LG - Conner Williams - He's just good, not great. Tends to get pushed back by DTs.
C - Frederick retired before they could replace him. Joe Looney was the center. If you don't know who Joe Looney is, he's the guy you can see in the congo line holding the hips of the defensive player he was supposed to block.
RG - Zack Martin - This potential future HOFer was hobbled by a knee injury and a few other injuries for most of the year.
RT - Lael Collins - easily the meanest OLman the Cowboys have (who should be playing guard,) missed the entire year.
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BobbyLayne
Footballguy
34th (of 47 qualifying backs) on /carry YBC
he was def getting hit almost immediately often on carries & I think the offense was very predictable.
that said, we’ve seen this movie before, right? generational talent gets a massive amount of touches in his first 3-4 years and then falls off a cliff: Gurley the last couple years, Earl Campbell back in the day. he def looked average at times but sometimes it’s really hard to separate bad O-line play & a RB who has lost his edge.
OTOH, I’d love to see a Venn diagram of FF managers who think he’s toast and who drafted him with 3rd pick a year ago. probably looks a lot like the folks who took Sanders 9th or Mixon 11th and have them on their 2021 DND list.
one to think about here @TS Garp - if you believe Elliott is still a Kareem Hunt level talent (e.g., he’s no longer great but he should still be good), then he’s a really good candidate for positive regression. In 2019 he converted 10/18 inside the 5. Last year it was 5/26. If you look at historical data, of all the backs who have seen 20 RZ carries inside the 5, none had converted less than 6. The average was 9. Just from a mathematical standpoint he was a little unlucky. In addition, Dak scored 3 rush TDs in 4-2/3rds GP. It’s reasonable to expect Dak’s rush TD to decline and Zeke’s to increase to historical average. IOW, I’m not saying Elliott has always been amazing and he’s gonna be amazing again. I’m saying he’s still the man in D and if he has the same RZ chances and converts at an average rate in 202 then he’ll see positive regression
Great post, as usual. I agree with what you're saying - Zeke is in an excellent situation with lots of opportunity so he will produce. However, I don't expect a full rebound and don't think the ceiling is what it once was. I also think there's a bit more risk than some acknowledge. I see him as someone to target in the 7-12 range but not before.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Well we know that RB tend to have their best performances when they are young. 25 seems to be the main cut off age, where they do not have the same ceiling they once had younger than this. That is not to say that these RB cant have very productive seasons after age 25. Just that for the majority of RB historically have their best seasons when they are younger.
From an analytic historical perspective Elliot checks every box and he is in some rare company with guys like LT and Edge as far as age coming into the league, draft position and production that has me thinking he is one of the guys who will have a longer and more productive career than most RB will.
He might not be top 3 anymore but as bad as it was for Elliot last season he was still RB 11 or 12 depending on your scoring system and I expect him to be that in 2021.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
I think both these conclusions align with where I am landing. For the past 5 years - maybe not his rookie year and def not his suspension year - you drafted him with the expectation he’d perform at a top 3 level down the stretch. His ceiling is lower now - RB5/6 would not surprise me - but I feel like he still has a safe enough volume floor to warrant a first round pick.
Teams are def more focused on stopping Dak & his high level WRs then worrying about what to do to limit Zeke.
Maybe I’ve just been playing too long but I feel like I could find warts/fears about every single 1st round back. Injury risk (CMC, Cooks, Saquan, Eckler), QB uncertainty (Kamara, Jones), PPR usage (Henry, Chubb), inflated 2020 numbers v weak schedule (Taylor), mileage (Elliott, Henry again.) Balance that against these are also historical league winner guys who could def hit again.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Oh yeah. If I want to I can talk myself out of drafting anybody. They all have risks.
