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Official Dynasty & Redraft: RB Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys


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You should be banned for six weeks!!!                         I’M NOT KIDDING!!!!!!!!   TEX

Just enough time for Judge Crotty to pull a monster trade in his 14 team IDP keeper league.

2 hours ago, ffmail4me said:

The world is full of delusional Cowboy fans...hoping there is one in my league and I can get an early 1st for him. Or maybe a solid #2 RB and #2 WR....if people still believe in him. 

 

 

Hmmm I don’t think you’ll get an early one but guess you never know. If your best offer was a 1 in the 9-10 range would you pass on that and hold? 

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3 minutes ago, Cobbler1 said:

Hmmm I don’t think you’ll get an early one but guess you never know. If your best offer was a 1 in the 9-10 range would you pass on that and hold? 

Yes I'd probably hold out for a 1st and a solid player if the pick was later. 

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7 minutes ago, Bayhawks said:

GRRRRRRR.   Trying to decide between Zeke and Hunt as my RB3.  If Zeke is out, is Pollard the better play?  This is not a problem I thought I'd behaving at the beginning of this season.

Just because the Cowboys took the "equitable" position of paying him didn't mean you had to follow suit and draft him, no whut I mean?

:)

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3 hours ago, Bayhawks said:

GRRRRRRR.   Trying to decide between Zeke and Hunt as my RB3.  If Zeke is out, is Pollard the better play?  This is not a problem I thought I'd behaving at the beginning of this season.

Pollard would be the better play as he's not splitting carries.  I'm hoping Zeke plays.

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The Dallas Morning News reports the Cowboys expect Ezekiel Elliott (calf) to play Sunday against the 49ers.

Elliott is expected to play through his calf injury despite not practicing all week. His workload may be scaled back, leaving a few more touches for Tony Pollard. Injured and facing a top-10 run defense, Elliott is best viewed as a low-floor RB2 for Week 15.

SOURCE: Dallas Morning News

Dec 19, 2020, 1:36 PM ET

 

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1 minute ago, GROOT said:

Would you start him over Mostert?

I have Mostert in as my RB2 and Pollard as my Flex.   If I had to choose one I think I would go with Mostert cause he's not going up against the SF run defense.  But you're going to get more touches with Pollard I am guessing.   A really tough decision.

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I've had Zeke and Pollard in PPR redraft all year and I acknowledge how hard it is to pull the trigger on Pollard over Zeke but more or less since Week 6 it has been the better play. As the season winds down it would seem to be getting easier to make that call.

Edited by habsfan
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1 hour ago, Godsbrother said:

Picked up Pollard.  Starting him over Wilson...

Did the same over Wilson, Gus, and Landry.  Just think the probability of more touches is what is best.  It may not be right be seems safer.

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4 minutes ago, Banger said:

any update on his injury?

He’s limited in practice today, which is ahead of where he was last week. That said, calf strains are tricky, and although I expect him to try and play, there is a high risk of him being ineffective and or not finishing the game. Even if he plays, I’m going to start Pollard over him with confidence. Besides, Zeke has been abysmal when fully healthy. 

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Ezekiel Elliott (calf) said he's on track to play in Week 16 against the Eagles. 

ESPN's Todd Archer said Elliott, who missed Week 15 with the lingering calf issue, "went through some team drills Wednesday after spending the early portion of practice doing resistance training off to the side." Elliott told reporters he felt "better today than I have in the last three weeks on a Wednesday." It looks likely Elliott will return to the starting role despite Tony Pollard being the superior back for much of this season. Elliott would be a touchdown-dependent RB2 against the Eagles. 

RELATED: 

Tony Pollard

SOURCE: ESPN

Dec 23, 2020, 2:25 PM ET

 

 

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Zeke is riding the pine for me. i considered him as a flex, but he is nothing more than a low-floor, low-ceiling ppr option at this point.  I would rank him alongside players like Frank Gore.  I am not sure we can even rely on volume this week.  

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3 hours ago, Helaire-ious said:

Have Pollard & Zeke in 1 redraft. Rolling them both out as of now & benching Jeff Wilson. I may change my mind...again...

Tough to bench Wilson over those two when he’s getting all the work. In terms of picking between Zeke and Pollard, I imagine they split carries, but Pollard is more productive 

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Ezekiel Elliott (calf) remained "limited" on Thursday. 

All signs have pointed toward Elliott returning after missing Week 15. With the Cowboys' season drain-circled and Elliott at less than 100 percent health, we would expect his snaps to be rationed. It's an unpredictable situation, but we would prefer Tony Pollard as a low-end, volatile RB2, with Elliott checking in as a low-upside FLEX against the Eagles. 

RELATED: 

Tony Pollard

SOURCE: Michael Gehlken on Twitter 

Dec 24, 2020, 4:39 PM ET

 

 

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So I was looking around for any articles that may have been written about Elliot and his decline due to workload.

I haven't found much. If any of you have please share that here.

I did come across this article talking about Elliots workload in 2018 which brings up the 400 touches in a season threshold as a possible sign of a player getting the ball too much.

Quote

Zeke's 381 touches in 2018 was a career high, and he has topped 1,000 career touches through his first three seasons.

Zeke averaged 25.6 touches per game in 2018. He played in 15 games, but sat out the regular-season finale in order to rest for the playoffs. If Zeke had played in the 16th and final game of the 2018 regular season and taken his normal workload, he would have topped 400 touches.

In NFL history, a player has reached 400 or more touches in a single season 43 times. Three different Cowboys have reached 400-plus touches in a season: Murray in 2014; Emmitt Smith four times (1991, 1992, 1994, 1995); and Herschel Walker (414 touches in 1988).

While there is no question that Zeke has carried more than his fair share of the load through his first three NFL seasons, the numbers show that Zeke's load has not been as heavy as those carried by running backs of previous NFL generations.

Here's the NFL's top-10 list - most touches (single season):

1. James Wilder, Tampa Bay: 492 (1984)

2. Larry Johnson, Kansas City: 457 (2006)3. Eddie George, Tennessee: 453 (2000)4. LaDainian Tomlinson, San Diego: 451 (2002)5. Edgerrin James, Indianapolis: 450 (2000)6. DeMarco Murray, Dallas: 449 (2014)7. Marcus Allen, Oakland 447: (1985)8. Ricky Williams, Miami 442: (2003)9. Eric Dickerson, Los Angeles Rams: 441 (1983)10. Emmitt Smith, Dallas 439: (1995)

This caused me to wonder what happened to the players following the 400 touch season. First we need a sample size. I figured lets look at the 43 times a RB has had 400 or more touches and what the careers for those players was like, since Elliot was on pace for that many in 2018.

James Wilder  had a 2nd 400 touch season after his record setting 492 touches in 1984. He never played 16 games again after those two seasons. But he also was 28 years old by then. He didnt touch the ball nearly that much in his first 3 seasons in the league. So it wasn't a large total workload in his career causing him to wear down.

Larry Johnson is kind of weird because he had to play 2nd fiddle to Priest Holmes his first couple years in the league. Similar to Wilder he had two very high touch seasons then didn't see that volume again in his career, but he was also 28 years old by then.

Eddie George had 352 touches or more every season. His yards per touch declines after his high touch season in 2000 but he continues having high volume until he is 30 before falling off.

LaDainian Tomlinson starts his career with 398 touches and continues to have near 400 every season until he is age 29 where performance drops and then opportunity drops at age 30.

Edgerrin James starts his career with 431 touches then 450 touches his 2nd season. He has a knee injury and only plays 6 games his 3rd season  He has 6 more seasons with over 300 touches including a 400 touch season at age 27 and two more good seasons after that. His performance falls off his age 30 season.

DeMarco Murray split time his first two seasons before a 270 touch then 449 touches at age 26. He goes to the Eagles as a free agent and only has 237 touches at age 27. He goes to the Titans and has 346 touches at age 28  Then 223 touches splitting with Henry at age 29 before he retires.

Marcus Allen Allens career is kind of weird because he splits carries with Bo Jackson and others along the way. We see the age curve afffecting his performance after he turns 28 but he is able to revive his career at age 33 and does similarly well to his earlier seasons until age 36.

Ricky Williams he had 3 high volume seasons from age 24 to 26 before taking a year long vacation to avoid suspension. He comes back for a year but then does get suspended for the 2006 season. Revives his career at age 31 and has a 276 touch season at age 32. Maybe those seasons off helped Williams play well later on in his career? He does do it past the usual age threshold.

Eric Dickerson starts his career with a 441 touch season. He has 3 more 400 touch seasons in his career and he does not decline in performance until his age 30 season.

Emmitt Smith the energizer bunny RB. You do see decline in Smiths performance from age starting at 31 years old but he keeps on chooglin until he is 35.

Jamal Anderson Anderson only has one 400 touch season and he had a serious injury following that year. His career is one of the example people would point to as far as the 400 touch threshold being a risk.  He still has a good year following the injury at age 28.

Steven Jackson only had one season over 400 touches. Is a steady performer for most of his career though before performance declining at age 30.

Gerald Riggs has 3 high volume seasons age 24 to 26  Opportunities decline after that point.

Barry Foster has one 400 touch season. He splits time with other RBs the next two years and does not play after age 26.

Walter Payton  has his first 400 touch season at age 25 has another one at age 30. Performance declines at age 33 but they were also splitting carries between him and Neal Anderson his last season in the league.

Duece McCallister has a 400 touch season at age 25 (I am seeing this a lot)  Has a decent season following that but gets injured at age 27 but comes back for a decent year at age 28. Gets injured again and fades out after that.

Terrell Davis Similar to Riggs he has 3 high volume seasons in a row age 24 to 26. Gets injured following that at age  27 and tries to come back but is just never the same again.

Hershel Walker He only had 400 touches once at age 26. He started his career with the USFL and does not enter the NFL until age 24.

Jamal Lewis only has one 400 touch season but he is high volume his whole career before declining at age 30.

Curtis Martin  First 400 touch season at age 25 then another one at age 31 before we see a decline in his performance at age 32. He has 412 touches 3 different times.

Tiki Barber Has his first 400 touch season at age 30. He has 3 seasons in a row of 2k total yards from scrimmage before retiring.

Marshall Faulk  He only has one 400 touch season at age 25. He misses games later on in his career but peformance doesn't really decline until his age 32 season.

Chris Johnson Only has one 400 touch season at age 24. Has a 380 touch season following that. We see decline in his opportunity at age 29 and he is pretty much done by age 31.

LeVeon Bell has a 400 touch season at age 25. Misses the following year with contract dispute. Then sent to the Jets where he was not as good.

Ahman Green has a 400 touch season at age 26  Has a good season following this then an injured year then another good year at age 29 before he declines.

Ricky Watters has one 400 touch season at age 27 but he had 399 the year before at age 26. He has a strong career up until his age 32 season.

Christian McCaffrey  has one 400 touch season at age 23. He got injured this year and so adds weight to the decline in performance after a 400 touch season idea.

Thurman Thomas  has one 400 touch season. Many good years we start to see decline at age 31.

 

Thats all of them I think. Of course some guys who are close but not quite hitting 400. There are only 28 RB to ever have 400 touches. The other 15 times it has happened was because these players were able to do that multiple times.

i am going to look at this further but the main thing I see happening here is a RB earns huge workload early on in their careers. So focusing on younger RB is a good way to try to put yourself in position for such a monster season.

Almost every player on this list has had good long careers and they far exceed the 1800 rushing attempts that has been talked about as a point where these players decline. I will look at that for this sample later on. Maybe I find some other number where the players decline in performance. I don't know.

For the most part these RB are having long careers as well though if it doesn't get shortened by an injury as I think is the case for TD Jamal Anderson.

When Elliot was on pace for 400 touches it was his age 23 season. He will be 26 next July. 

 

I was just looking at total yards from scrimmage and there are 42 times that a RB has had 2k combined yards in the sample.

Elliot has one of them in 2018. The other RB who had a 2k season at age 23 were Christian McCaffrey, Steven Jackson, Eric Dickerson, LaDainian Tomlinson, Emmitt Smith.

Edge did it at 21 and 22 years old.

Edited by Biabreakable
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Just now, Razors Edge said:

The "I wish you were in my league" nonsense, eh? I'll address that in a moment.

I wish guys who rely on DLF rankings as fact were in my league. 

Imagine thinking a guy who was a stud until Dak went down isnt a stud RB anymore. Variables matter to every player. WRs not being valuable cuz their stud QB is hurt. It all matters.

Zeke RB2 thru week 6 until Dak went down and there were 9 in the box. 

Since you called me out, Im going for a perfect 15-0 in my dyno league this week with Zeke on my team riding pine behind Kamara and AJones. You want no part of me in any of your leagues.

Hostility. I was being light-hearted but since you came heavy, I'll tell that you have three aging running backs so enjoy it now. Their teams know it already in Jones and Elliott and one will cut bait this year and the other in 2021 or 2022. 

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Just now, Razors Edge said:

:lol:

The guy saying "wish you were in my league" is talking hostility. Heavy is the only way I know to "come." 😉

Merry Christmas dude. lol

"I wish I was in your league" was meant so that I might trade with you. If you read my original post, it makes sense. Nobody will give me value for Zeke (I've been shopping him) and I'm not nearly as sanguine as you seem to be about him. He'll be 26 by this time next year, coming off a dreadful year.

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1 hour ago, Gottabesweet said:

What stinks is that it’s a 4:25 start on Sunday. Many of the options I’m contemplating over Pollard are Saturday games or 1pm Sunday.  
 

Zeke status likely unknown till 1.5 hours before kickoff?

I bet we get some info around kickoff for the 1:00 games...I’m fully expecting him to be active and try to give it a go 

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9 minutes ago, FGITLOTR said:

I bet we get some info around kickoff for the 1:00 games...I’m fully expecting him to be active and try to give it a go 

I figured and Pollard still likely a decent play.  I can’t see Zeke getting passing down work.  

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10 hours ago, Double said:

I am absolutely paralyzed by starting Cooks, AB, JD, or Pollard (even if Zeke plays). This is brutal. I wish he just sat. How effective is he even gonna be having not logged a full practice all week?

Cooks is prob the safest of that group. 

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https://twitter.com/GehlkenNFL/status/1342919553370697730

 

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Cowboys have signed FB Sewo Olonilua from practice squad. Last week, Olonilua's elevation from practice squad was a harbinger of RB Ezekiel Elliott (calf) missing game. Elliott has said he expects to play Sunday vs. Eagles. But enough doubt for Olonilua to be added now again.

Quote

This is third time Cowboys have elevated or signed FB Sewo Olonilua on day before a game. Week 9: RB Ezekiel Elliott (hamstring) a game-day decision. Worked out hours before kickoff and played. Week 15: Elliott (calf) missed game. Week 16: Status for Elliott (calf) in question

 

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