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He can score on any play from anywhere on the field, which is rare. His college career shows that he is a complete WR, not just a deep threat.

IMO he is the best WR on the team right now, and is a top 30 dynasty WR without having played a regular season snap.

:coffee:

Good call but one problem - SEA still spreads targets around a ton. Baldwin, Kearse, Lockett... And TDs are variable.

If Lockett and Baldwin can clearly separate themselves long term in this offense they could both be top 20 WRs. But a lot of the recent production for both is in conjunction with Lynch then Rawls going down and Graham out.

This is true because Lockett did not have more than 5 targets in any game prior to the bye when most of these players were still healthy.

Graham is still second on the team in targets behind Baldwin right now.

I do think part of that is just that Lockett is a rookie and coaches will work rookies into the game plan slowly. The last 3 weeks for Lockett have been outstanding.

Those players are not coming back this season however and long term hopefully Rawls will be healthy but the patella injury has to be a concern as far as Graham's ability to come back and play at a high level again. The Seahawks seem likely to move on from Lynch. So his prospects in 2016 look similar to what is happening now I think.

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It's weird when your human posts on your account. You should get a separate username. 

Let's look at this systematically. Per PFR, here are the total team targets since 2012, when Wilson took over at QB: 2012: 402 (405 pass attempts) 2013: 410 (420 PA) 2014: 432

I disagree with almost all of this.  Too excited by Lockett?  Maybe that part I agree with.  He's a good late round flier but anyone thinking he's a sure thing is overly optimistic.  Hasn't

^^^ I sure hope so. Man I really thought Baldwin was JAG, so much so that I dropped him in a dynasty league where I own Lockett :bag:

Maybe Baldwin is just a guy but I doubt it. And I'm not sure Wilson is going to be a 35+ TD pass guy long term but he sure looks like he can be.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Lockett's an interesting play this week. The Cardinals rarely put Peterson in the slot but if they don't do that this week Baldwin will probably kill them again since he lines up in the slot a lot. If Peterson stays outside then he'll shut down Lockett and Kearse when they're outside. If Peterson covers Baldwin in the slot that could give Lockett (and Kearse) some big opportunities outside. I would expect Wilson to be throwing it a lot this week so the question is do the Cardinals try to take away his dominant WR and force Lockett and Kearse to beat them or not?

Edited by packersfan
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  • 2 weeks later...

Dynasty value going forward? Anyone see any trade involving him as the centerpiece recently? WR is so young, talented, and deep right now that its hard to work him too far up the rankings but he's exciting as hell.

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The emergence of Baldwin has me tempering expectations somewhat. It is a good sign that Wilson continues getting better and is doing more in the passing game this season than previously. I would expect him to continue making incremental improvements as a passer over time. This should increase the opportunity for WR in the offense but now that Baldwin has emerged I don't feel as confident in Lockett becoming their primary WR as I was prior to this season.

Although I really liked Lockett among the 2015 rookie WR prospects, I think I ranked him too low, as I did not consider him a tier 1 prospect. His play as a rookie has had me thinking as much as I liked him, I still under estimated how good he could be for fantasy.

I feel good about Lockett as a WR 2 not sure if I am still under estimating him or not.

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I'm very interested in some others impressions after year 1. Post #36 in this thread was merged in here. I made it back in May and compared Lockett to TY Hilton and Antonio Brown. Lockett is nearly identical in size, and a better athlete than both.

I think it was an Evan Silva tweet last week that showed Patrick Peterson trying to hang on for dear life attempting to cover Lockett on what looked like a deep post. It would have been a TD with a good throw from Wilson.

That said, this is still a run first team, and Baldwin has asserted himself as a legitimate slot WR that is going to get targets. Baldwin got 103 this year, and Lockett 69.

This situation reminds me some of Pittsburgh a handful of years ago. Ben was a fantasy QB2. He just didn't get the attempts to be a QB1. The efficiency was there, but the year end totals weren't. Obviously that has changed now. I think its likely a similar thing happens for Wilson in Seattle. Eventually, they won't have the defense they do now. They'll likely be forced into becoming a passing offense at some point. It may take a year or three for Lockett, but I think the upside here is Antonio Brown. Lockett certainly has shown he's dynamic in a smaller role.

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As I said before the season, IMO Lockett is the best WR on the team, and I expect the Seahawks offense to continue its shift toward more passing, which has been ongoing since Wilson arrived:

2012: 405 team passing attempts

2013: 420

2014: 454

2015: 489

Lockett was a rookie, and the team probably did not initially appreciate what they have in him as a WR and also could afford to bring him along slowly. Consider his targets by breaking the season into quarters:

Games 1-4: 12 targets

Games 5-8: 16

Games 9-12: 16

Games 13-16: 25

He is a complete receiver with the best deep speed on the team. Wilson has proven he is capable of elite level passing, and he throws a great deep ball.

As for Baldwin, he played great this year, but IMO it had more to do with how great Wilson played than with how great Baldwin played. I expect Baldwin to come back down to Earth next season. If he does, Lockett should surpass him and become the top WR on the team. If Baldwin maintains his elite play next season, he could easily be gone after next season, since he will be a UFA who would stand to command a contract larger than Seattle may offer.

I had Lockett as a top 30 dynasty WR before the season started, and he has done nothing to lower his ranking.

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Kearse (15) and Baldwin (12) dominated the targets in today's game. But Lockett came up with some huge plays and showed off his big play ability.

3 catches 75 yards and 1 TD on only 4 targets.

I think targets are the only thing that could hold him back next year. I think he'll command more targets next year and be the sure-fire #1 or #2 target in that offense.

Edited by mikel2014
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I'm very interested in some others impressions after year 1. Post #36 in this thread was merged in here. I made it back in May and compared Lockett to TY Hilton and Antonio Brown. Lockett is nearly identical in size, and a better athlete than both.

You sound like his mom or sister or something. Is he better than Rice too?

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I'm very interested in some others impressions after year 1. Post #36 in this thread was merged in here. I made it back in May and compared Lockett to TY Hilton and Antonio Brown. Lockett is nearly identical in size, and a better athlete than both.

You sound like his mom or sister or something. Is he better than Rice too?

A better athlete? Yes.

Note that better athlete is not equal to better football player.

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I'm very interested in some others impressions after year 1. Post #36 in this thread was merged in here. I made it back in May and compared Lockett to TY Hilton and Antonio Brown. Lockett is nearly identical in size, and a better athlete than both.

You sound like his mom or sister or something. Is he better than Rice too?

A better athlete? Yes.

Note that better athlete is not equal to better football player.

TY was a basketball recruit. Lockette was 'just a guy' on a good team.

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I'm very interested in some others impressions after year 1. Post #36 in this thread was merged in here. I made it back in May and compared Lockett to TY Hilton and Antonio Brown. Lockett is nearly identical in size, and a better athlete than both.

You sound like his mom or sister or something. Is he better than Rice too?

A better athlete? Yes.

Note that better athlete is not equal to better football player.

just because he is really fast doesnt mean that he is a better athlete, i would say he could be better the TY because TY is more just speed where lockett is a little better at making guys miss but brown does everything lockett can do but most likely better especially considering running routes

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I'm very interested in some others impressions after year 1. Post #36 in this thread was merged in here. I made it back in May and compared Lockett to TY Hilton and Antonio Brown. Lockett is nearly identical in size, and a better athlete than both.

You sound like his mom or sister or something. Is he better than Rice too?

A better athlete? Yes.

Note that better athlete is not equal to better football player.

TY was a basketball recruit. Lockette was 'just a guy' on a good team.

Don't have a clue what that has to do with his point, even if it were true.

Edited by ConnSKINS26
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I'm very interested in some others impressions after year 1. Post #36 in this thread was merged in here. I made it back in May and compared Lockett to TY Hilton and Antonio Brown. Lockett is nearly identical in size, and a better athlete than both.

You sound like his mom or sister or something. Is he better than Rice too?
A better athlete? Yes.

Note that better athlete is not equal to better football player.

TY was a basketball recruit. Lockette was 'just a guy' on a good team.
What does their HS letter jacket have anything to do with this?

Lockett was .06 slower in the 40, identical to T.Y. in the vertical and better in the broad jump, shuttle and 3 cone.

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I'm very interested in some others impressions after year 1. Post #36 in this thread was merged in here. I made it back in May and compared Lockett to TY Hilton and Antonio Brown. Lockett is nearly identical in size, and a better athlete than both.

You sound like his mom or sister or something. Is he better than Rice too?
A better athlete? Yes.

Note that better athlete is not equal to better football player.

TY was a basketball recruit. Lockette was 'just a guy' on a good team.
What does their HS letter jacket have anything to do with this?

Lockett was .06 slower in the 40, identical to T.Y. in the vertical and better in the broad jump, shuttle and 3 cone.

Would you say a guy that played baseball, basketball, and soccer well is a better athlete than a guy that played soccer well?

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I doubt three people in this thread have ever watched Lockett play in an actual game of value. It's ludicrous to try and project stats for an unknown quantity.

Bottom line is he's a rookie, he looks good in camp, he's starting, and that's about all we know.

I've watched him plenty. See my post at the bottom of page 3. But realistically he's prob nothing more than a WR3 with WR2 upside this season, and that's being pretty optimistic.

In a league that rewards return yardage, I am all in... I really think Lockett is going to bust the myth that a Seahawks WR can't be relevant. He is my WR5 - I like the odds at that price.

Myth busted by Baldwin and Lockett as the Seahawks transition from life with Marshawn.

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Any chance he steals ROY from Gurley?

I doubt it. Even if I thought Lockett deserved ROY over Gurley/Cooper (which I don't), Lockett doesn't carry the name recognition to take the award. Like it or not, these awards are about name value, just as Pro Bowl nominations are.

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I'm very interested in some others impressions after year 1. Post #36 in this thread was merged in here. I made it back in May and compared Lockett to TY Hilton and Antonio Brown. Lockett is nearly identical in size, and a better athlete than both.

You sound like his mom or sister or something. Is he better than Rice too?
A better athlete? Yes.

Note that better athlete is not equal to better football player.

TY was a basketball recruit. Lockette was 'just a guy' on a good team.
What does their HS letter jacket have anything to do with this?

Lockett was .06 slower in the 40, identical to T.Y. in the vertical and better in the broad jump, shuttle and 3 cone.

Would you say a guy that played baseball, basketball, and soccer well is a better athlete than a guy that played soccer well?

Maybe? Usually 'athletic' refers to a set of physical skills useful for performance. In this case, football. What if the second person simply didn't start playing multiple sports as a young kid?

All I'm saying is judging an 'athlete' for football purposes has little to do with their participation in other sports.

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Where?

Are you referring to the College Dominator rating? Those are pretty similar.

No. Player Profile Efficiency (advanced). Lockett performed very well there.

I am very comfortable saying Lockett is at least as good of an athlete as T.Y. Probably better. Lockett was drafted to primarily serve as a returner his rookie season. Kids like that get drafted because they are fast, elusive and have good vision (and tough to hold onto the ball). Carroll himself stated how pleasantly surprised they were with his receiver skills when they got him into camp.

I hope he continues to develop his routes. Wilson looks like a 15 year foundational QB.

Edited by mr roboto
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  • 5 months later...

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/10408/tyler-lockett

 

If the Seahawks turn the offense over to Russell Wilson and morph into a more pass happy team Lockett could be huge.........right now I would say his numbers will be capped in that offense and I don't see him as more than a WR3. Still this is pretty significant.......

 

Is Baldwin in the last year of his deal?

Edited by Milkman
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Baldwin is in the last year of his deal, but an extension is expected before the season starts. However, I think Lockett will ultimately prove to be better than Baldwin, possibly as soon as this season. Reasons:

1. Per Pro Football Reference, Baldwin had the #1 catch rate of all wide receivers in 2015, Lockett was #6, and Kearse was #7. One thing this shows is that Wilson is extremely accurate throwing to his WRs. But it is quite impressive for Lockett to rank so high as a rookie, particularly since he runs a fair amount of deep routes. In fact, of all rookie wide receivers with at least 650 receiving yards, Tyler Lockett had the 2nd best catch percentage in NFL history.

2. Lockett averaged about 4 ppg in Seattle's first 6 games last season, then about 13 ppg in their last 10 games. He was a rookie, and IMO Seattle didn't quite know what they had at first.

3. Lockett's rookie season was on par with or better than all of Baldwin's first four seasons. (Last season was Baldwin's 5th season.) Baldwin has nothing over Lockett except experience. Lockett is faster, so he is a better deep threat, but he is also good in the short and medium range, just like Baldwin. He was known as an excellent route runner coming out of college, and it is evident from his catch percentage that he is a very polished WR already.

4. Last year seems likely to be an outlier for Baldwin because his TD production was so flukish. In 62 career games before last season, he had 15 TDs total; last season he had 14 in 16 games. Meanwhile, the team's rushing TDs dropped from an average of 17 per season in Wilson's first 3 seasons to 10 last season, presumably due to the injuries to Lynch and Rawls, plus expected red zone threat Graham didn't adjust early and later got hurt and missed 5 games. Who knows if Graham will return to prominence as a real red zone threat, but I expect more rushing TDs. I do think Wilson will continue to pass for 30+ TDs, I just don't think Baldwin is going to get 41% of them on a regular basis... and likely a lot less.

IMO Lockett is a clear buy, even if Baldwin is extended... and if he isn't for whatever reason, even moreso.

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Does anyone picture Lockett as more of a "gadget" player?

I can't compare him to A Brown but insert Lockett into the Cobb role in GB and he would produce similar numbers IMO.

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17 hours ago, Hooper31 said:

This Seattle homer wouldn't go so far as to  say "ape ####", but I tend to agree. I won't be drafting Baldwin in my league this year, but I certainly plan to target Lockett. 

Why baldwin is going to out point him in most scoring formats barring injury. 

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^^^ In 0.5 PPR with return yards scoring at 50% the rate of receiving yards,

Baldwin scored 230 points last year to Lockett's 201.

And that was with Baldwin scoring 14 TDs and Lockett being eased in as a rookie, whereas this year he's already been announced as the starter ahead of Kearse.

Meanwhile, Baldwin's current 10-team PPR ADP is 5.9, while Lockett's is 9.5.

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57 minutes ago, LawFitz said:

^^^ In 0.5 PPR with return yards scoring at 50% the rate of receiving yards,

Baldwin scored 230 points last year to Lockett's 201.

And that was with Baldwin scoring 14 TDs and Lockett being eased in as a rookie, whereas this year he's already been announced as the starter ahead of Kearse.

Meanwhile, Baldwin's current 10-team PPR ADP is 5.9, while Lockett's is 9.5.

Lockett was super solid in PPR/return leagues last year, and tried to hold him on my team through the year given his use in flex. This year, I think Baldwin has to regress, and can only see Lockett being more effective with a year under his belt. SEA's offensive style limits upside for any WR, but would much rather bank on Lockett outperforming ADP as late round draft pick than Baldwin not living up to his efficiency last year and the ADP he is currently carrying.

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1 hour ago, bicycle_seat_sniffer said:

Why baldwin is going to out point him in most scoring formats barring injury. 

 

Perhaps. I think Baldwin has had his career year. Lockett hasn't. I think Lockett has a much higher ceiling. 

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8 minutes ago, bicycle_seat_sniffer said:

Return yards leagues arent that common. I said most formats. Sheesh. 

All three of my leagues are return yard leagues.  Your personal experiences are not the rule.

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1 hour ago, Hankmoody said:

All three of my leagues are return yard leagues.  Your personal experiences are not the rule.

He didn't say it was a rule. He simply said return yard leagues aren't that common which is absolutely true. Just because all yours are return yard leagues doesn't make that format universally common. Your personal experiences are not the rule ;)

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3 hours ago, bicycle_seat_sniffer said:

Why baldwin is going to out point him in most scoring formats barring injury. 

Baldwin gets no love. His ADP is WR24 while Lockett is WR38. They could both outproduce their spots (and are both good players), but Baldwin is likely the better value. He's got Wilson's trust.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/fantasy-doug-baldwin-was-the-leagues-most-efficient-receiver-in-2015/

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It's tough because Seattle is a very low volume passing offense.  Even in the second half after Lynch got hurt and Wilson/Kearse started putting up video game numbers they still did not throw much (231 att in 8 games I think).  I don't see much reason to think they will throw a lot more this year.  So if Wilson is going to throw < 500 times it's going to be very tough, even at his efficiency, to feed two WRs.   So one owner will be disappointed, imo.

I'm with many I think-I feel Baldwin's crazy 7 game stretch (what was it 12 TDs in 7 games, 10 in 5?) screams fluke compared to the rest of his career.  Looking at ADP I'll take most of the WRs around him-Moncrief, Matthews, any Arizona WR, Decker, Sanders-over Baldwin.  Of course many of those guys have the same target volume questions as I described with Baldwin, so your mileage may vary.

I love Lockett but I have a feeling that his price might climb to be just a bit too high for me.  Will probably depend on who else I have drafted by the 6th round-if I want to swing for the fences a bit then yes, if I have already taken on some risk then no.  I'm more risk averse than many though.

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Yeah that's the problem with Lockett for "this" year. Even if he does push for the #1WR in 2016 (which is not a given)......what are we looking at as a ceiling if Seattle doesn't throw much. I don't see why Seattle wouldn't turn the offense over to Wilson at some point though. They have an elite QB. It would be in their best interests if they used him.......and with as good as Lockett is turning out.......

Like was said earlier itt I see Lockett as a strong buy as well but I'm not sure he's going to pop this year........It might be more of a second half and next year situation. However there is a path to FF WR1 for him if they turn the offense over to Wilson. It probably doesn't happen but I'd love to see Seattle let Baldwin walk because he wants to much money. It would make Lockett so much safer......

 

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13 minutes ago, Milkman said:

Yeah that's the problem with Lockett for "this" year. Even if he does push for the #1WR in 2016 (which is not a given)......what are we looking at as a ceiling if Seattle doesn't throw much. I don't see why Seattle wouldn't turn the offense over to Wilson at some point though. They have an elite QB. It would be in their best interests if they used him.......and with as good as Lockett is turning out.......

Like was said earlier itt I see Lockett as a strong buy as well but I'm not sure he's going to pop this year........It might be more of a second half and next year situation. However there is a path to FF WR1 for him if they turn the offense over to Wilson. It probably doesn't happen but I'd love to see Seattle let Baldwin walk because he wants to much money. It would make Lockett so much safer......

 

Question...doesn't having another good WR make things easier for Lockett...I like him a lot but I don't think he's ready to wear the bulls-eye from opposing defenses...and while Baldwin is good it's not like he's Antonio Brown or Beckham...

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