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Alex Collins - RB - Ravens


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26 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

Absolutely if he is able to have a good game against the Vikings it would prove how good he is.

However the Vikings defense is playing the run very good and just very good defense overall, so I really don't see that happening. The Vikings defensive line is too good and the Ravens offensive line isn't. The Vikings defense matches up really good against the Ravens receivers as well so they are not going to put extra attention there. Watson, Wallace Maclin and Collins are the Ravens biggest threats in my opinion but they do not seem good enough to overcome the way the Vikings match up against them.

I think its possible that the Ravens defense forces turnovers and presents some short fields, so a TD could be more likely than 100 yard game.

I do think Collins is capable of putting up those numbers at some point if given the opportunity, but unlikely it is going to happen this Sunday.

Look at what Aaron Jones and Montgomery did in most recent game against the Vikings. It would be very impressive if Collins could do better than this against them, I just dont consider that to be very likely.

Agree with this...like I said, would like to see some tangible fantasy production so we can start to figure out what we have with him because the clock is starting to tick as far as 2017 is concerned...

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1 hour ago, SaintsInDome2006 said:

I mean it's hilarious. Collins has ZERO red zone touches or even targets all season. This guy had 20 TDs in his final season at Arkansas. 

I think its a trust thing---no HC (especially one as conservative as Harbaugh) wants to finally get into the RZ only to have a rookie fumble it away when there are 3-7 points there for the taking. 

If he ever earns that trust, who knows...he could be a dynamo down there as he was in college. Right now I'm viewing it as an opportunity thing rather than a perceived skill-set thing.

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3 hours ago, SaintsInDome2006 said:

I mean it's hilarious. Collins has ZERO red zone touches or even targets all season. This guy had 20 TDs in his final season at Arkansas. 

well he needs to stop fumbling. If I was a HC I would be a bit hesitant to give him the ball in the RZ from what I have seen. However, when the game is out of hand and you are going to lose anyway, give him the damn ball cos its your only chance. No difference losing by 1 point or 30.

Edited by mnmplayer
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3 hours ago, SaintsInDome2006 said:

I mean it's hilarious. Collins has ZERO red zone touches or even targets all season. This guy had 20 TDs in his final season at Arkansas. 

I fear it’s gonna take a Buck Allen injury for anyone to be able to trust Collins as a FFB starter. 

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy
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Also going to be interesting to see what happens when Woodhead gets back in a few weeks. The consensus (that I agree with) is that Woodhead's skill set affects Allen and West more than Collins, but the fact of the matter is that it will be one additional back sloughing carries and snaps.

Totally understand and even appreciate Harbaugh not wanting to risk putting the ball on the carpet. Ravens also are not in a dire enough position record-wise with one game back of PIT to make wholesale changes to their approach to the backfield.

Sucks, but it's the way it is.

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Collins needs to hang on to the ball and earn the coaches trust that he will.

For all the talk of the Vikings possibly turning the ball over and how that might help the Ravens with a short field, the Ravens have turned the ball over 3 times a game over the last four weeks. The only game they didn't was against the Raiders, which was also the only game they have won.

Joe Flacco has had two interceptions per games aside from the game against the Raiders. The fumbles lost were by Maxx Williams last week, Alex Collins against the Steelers, and Terrance West against the Jaguars. There have been 3 other fumbles by Ravens players that were not recovered by the opposition.

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One other advantage Smallwood has over Collins: with Smallwood you’re not risking a 0 or negative point game if he goes out and puts one on the carpet. Collins could get 1 carry for 2 yards, cough it up and get benched for a -1.8 point game. 

Smallwood has earned benefit of the doubt. If he fumbles his next reception will make up for it. And he is THE receiving back, so there’s zero chance of a fumble-related benching. 

Food for thought....

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy
Math
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1 hour ago, ffweasel said:

I may actually start Collins this week for the first time. Other options would be Powell or Breida. Leaning Powell. 

I think I’d start collins over them.  Hyde is healthy.  And doesn’t Powell also have forte and Elija Wood to share with?  

@ least with collins you know his involvement has been growing and it’s only Buck Allen he shares carries with.  The matchup is tough but the raven’s o line has actually been playing well.  

Edited by rickyg
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16 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

One other advantage Smallwood has over Collins: with Smallwood you’re not risking a 0 or negative point game if he goes out and puts one on the carpet. Collins could get 1 carry for 2 yards, cough it up and get benched for a -1.8 point game. 

Smallwood has earned benefit of the doubt. If he fumbles his next reception will make up for it. And he is THE receiving back, so there’s zero chance of a fumble-related benching. 

Food for thought....

Just facilitated two more trades that should allow me to add Smallwood if they are approved before kickoff.

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16 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

One other advantage Smallwood has over Collins: with Smallwood you’re not risking a 0 or negative point game if he goes out and puts one on the carpet. Collins could get 1 carry for 2 yards, cough it up and get benched for a -1.8 point game. 

Smallwood has earned benefit of the doubt. If he fumbles his next reception will make up for it. And he is THE receiving back, so there’s zero chance of a fumble-related benching. 

Food for thought....

I don't see this as realistic. this isn't Bellichick.  Collins has fumbled the ball and has never scored negative fantasy points... in fact if he had 1 or 2 tds we would he talking about him as a weekly flex option tbh... 

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5 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

I don't see this as realistic. this isn't Bellichick.  Collins has fumbled the ball and has never scored negative fantasy points... in fact if he had 1 or 2 tds we would he talking about him as a weekly flex option tbh... 

I said it’s possible, not likely. Any time you have a runner in jeopardy of losing a job due to fumbles, the possibility remains that they lose one and get benched. I’ve had it happen - it sucked. Ingram last year  in a game I lost by <4 points. 

Smallwood is in no such jeopardy. 

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14 minutes ago, SameSongNDance said:

I'll probably hold through TNF before dropping him in the Yahoo leagues I own him in.

That’s not a bad idea. Miami just lost cutler for a wile so they definitely won’t be able to move the ball that well. Close game most likely......

I can’t quit you

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I saw the game... when your team has no WRs, it's hard to put out a RB who you don't throw to. Vikings absolutely picked up on the it and started stacking the box when Collins was in. This led to Collins then staying in on passing downs and actually running routes, which he looked good. However, they never targeted him on his routes. Unless this team gets one of their WRs back Collins will have trouble.

 

The snap counts will look deceptive because Collins got alot of play early in the 1st half, but once they got behind you saw more Allen in the 2nd half. When Bvaltimore is behind a lot, unless they actaully use Collins on passing routes (like today) and throw to him (still waiting on that), a 10/30 can happen. He needs neutral or positive game script to be successful, or to rip off a 15+ yard run.

Edited by The Frankman
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2 hours ago, ahartig said:

I dunno fellas. I may need to get off this train. Didn’t se the game at all. Any insight?

Collins actually had a couple good runs where he showed decent power and running behind his pads.

The Ravens had no real threat in the passing game after losing Wallace to a concussion early on in the game. There just wasn't much room for any RB to do well against the Vikings defense without forcing their attention to the pass more than they were able to.

It wasn't a good match up and I don't know why anyone thought Collins could have a good game this week. He did about as well as Aaron Jones did against the Vikings which is pretty much all one could expect (not much). The Packers at least have good receivers for the Vikings defense to worry about. The Ravens did not.

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On 9/30/2017 at 0:18 PM, humpback said:

 

On 9/30/2017 at 10:24 AM, SaintsInDome2006 said:

West needs to get out the way. Baltimore leads the league in rushes (99) and run ratio (~56%). The value would be terrific if it weren't a 3-way committee.

I would caution against reading too much into this. The Ravens have had a very positive game flow for running the ball so far- they jumped ahead early against bad teams the 1st two weeks and got throttled early last week, plus they were likely easing Flacco back into things after his injury. They were dead last in the NFL in run % last year, so while I know they want to be more committed to running the ball, I'd expect them to be more middle of the pack going forward. The O-line is pretty dreadful as well.

Update: The Ravens ran the ball ~56% of the time over those first 3 games. In the 4 games since, they've only run it ~39% of the time.

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Based on my league settings, I don't think a significant fantasy situation is going to materialize for Collins this year. Players putting up 5-10 fantasy points a week aren't really in short supply. I'm moving on to more speculative adds...

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9 minutes ago, foxco said:

If I keep Collins, I will need many pints!

Can we PLEASE be serious about this in the thread?

 

...

 

The amount of pints you need won't be set in stone. Sometimes you will need alot of pints... maybe share them with friends and stuff. Sometimes you will need only a few pints and that's good. You need to remember that your pints may vary.

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Curious,

At this stage of the game, who would people be dropping Collins for? 

I have a very short bench 12 team league. The top RBs are Ellington, Richard, Riddick, Forte, Benard and Vereen. I don't see any of those with more upside than Collins. So really, I'd be dropping Collins jus tbecause I'm tired of watching his stats every week. Even though we knew this was a tough matchup and expectations should have been tempered. His ceiling is still quite high. 

I know short bench leagues are rare, so I can only imagine the WW is even more bare in many of your leagues. So are you all really dropping him for Tolbert? D. Washington? Quiz Rodgers?

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13 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

Curious,

At this stage of the game, who would people be dropping Collins for? 

I have a very short bench 12 team league. The top RBs are Ellington, Richard, Riddick, Forte, Benard and Vereen. I don't see any of those with more upside than Collins. So really, I'd be dropping Collins jus tbecause I'm tired of watching his stats every week. Even though we knew this was a tough matchup and expectations should have been tempered. His ceiling is still quite high. 

I know short bench leagues are rare, so I can only imagine the WW is even more bare in many of your leagues. So are you all really dropping him for Tolbert? D. Washington? Quiz Rodgers?

Dropping him to cover byes, honestly.

I'm in a unique situation where I'm already carrying two tight ends (something I rarely endorse), Engram and Olsen. With Engram on bye this upcoming week, and with how hot he is in general, I'm attempting to move Olsen for pennies on the dollar just so I don't have to pick up a third tight end. If not, then I'm going to go into Week 8 with 3 tight ends on my roster. With how ravaged the TE position has been this year, I don't want to flat out drop him and give one of my league mates the potential of a healthy Olsen in their starting line-ups come playoffs, without getting something in return.

I also own the Jacksonville D, and plan on carrying them through the bye (another big no-no for me, generally) because their ROS schedule is really sweet, and the waiver wire is totally bare, so that'll mean two defenses on my roster during JAX bye week this weekend.

I figure I can drop Collins this week, and the likelihood of him getting picked up before the weekend (based on his performance so far) is basically nil. I'm literally the only owner in my league that has added/dropped him this season (multiple times, honestly), and no one else has shown any interest. I'm rolling the dice that I can get through this weekend without an explosion, and then I can pick him up to sit back on the end of my bench as my end of season lottery ticket.

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Just now, Moonshine said:

Dropping him to cover byes, honestly.

I'm in a unique situation where I'm already carrying two tight ends (something I rarely endorse), Engram and Olsen. With Engram on bye this upcoming week, and with how hot he is in general, I'm attempting to move Olsen for pennies on the dollar just so I don't have to pick up a third tight end. If not, then I'm going to go into Week 8 with 3 tight ends on my roster. With how ravaged the TE position has been this year, I don't want to flat out drop him and give one of my league mates the potential of a healthy Olsen in their starting line-ups come playoffs, without getting something in return.

I also own the Jacksonville D, and plan on carrying them through the bye (another big no-no for me, generally) because their ROS schedule is really sweet, and the waiver wire is totally bare, so that'll mean two defenses on my roster during JAX bye week this weekend.

I figure I can drop Collins this week, and the likelihood of him getting picked up before the weekend (based on his performance so far) is basically nil. I'm literally the only owner in my league that has added/dropped him this season (multiple times, honestly), and no one else has shown any interest. I'm rolling the dice that I can get through this weekend without an explosion, and then I can pick him up to sit back on the end of my bench as my end of season lottery ticket.

Yes, I can see this scenario. I would likely do the same.

I am keeping 2 TEs as well, Brate seems to be too good to drop right now. I also have Graham. Who keeps dropping balls. So one may flame out and I don't want to be caught with my pants down. 

In your situation I would likely do the same. I guess I'm more curious who people are dropping him for when they want off the train completely and are giving up on this guy 

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1 hour ago, habsfan said:

Based on my league settings, I don't think a significant fantasy situation is going to materialize for Collins this year. Players putting up 5-10 fantasy points a week aren't really in short supply. I'm moving on to more speculative adds...

He doesn't catch the ball.

Needs a 100 yards or a TD to help.

For the Ravens. ?

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I have been holding him for a couple weeks now, but I'm thinking its time to cut bait. No opportunity in the passing game and the anemic offense Baltimore is putting on the field is resulting in no touchdown opportunities. He has shown flashes of being usable, but in this offense, I am at the point where I have to let him go.

In general, I want as little to do with this offense as possible.

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4 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

Curious,

At this stage of the game, who would people be dropping Collins for? 

I have a very short bench 12 team league. The top RBs are Ellington, Richard, Riddick, Forte, Benard and Vereen. I don't see any of those with more upside than Collins. So really, I'd be dropping Collins jus tbecause I'm tired of watching his stats every week. Even though we knew this was a tough matchup and expectations should have been tempered. His ceiling is still quite high. 

I know short bench leagues are rare, so I can only imagine the WW is even more bare in many of your leagues. So are you all really dropping him for Tolbert? D. Washington? Quiz Rodgers?

Maybe Ellington.  The situation in AZ is much different than it was a few days ago when ADP was rushing for 100 yards/TD and Palmer was the QB.  Now, AZ may be playing from behind a lot and looking for a RB like Ellington to be that outlet receiving RB.  Just throwing it out there. 

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