I agree it would be stupid. It's sort of what LeVeon Bell did except it was difficult for Pittsburgh to make him stay. Opting out would be a huge gamble for Cook, banking on Minnesota doing terrible without him thus gaining some leverage for next year. Only if he's really intent it gives him a way to avoid the fines.
But it's not what Bell did for a couple of reasons:
- Bell was not under contract. He never signed his franchise tag tender for the 2018 season.
- Bell had already played 5 seasons, so there was no issue about accruing enough seasons to reach unrestricted free agency.
- Bell had already earned more than $16M prior to the 2018 season.
Despite all that, what Bell did was foolish IMO. He didn't retire, so it wasn't about preserving his health/body. He skipped out on $14.5M that he will never get back; he would have been the highest paid RB in football that season had he played under the tag, and then he still would have reached free agency in 2019.
Back to Cook. If he opts out for the entire season and Minnesota's running game suffers, I don't think it gives him any additional leverage. He still has to accrue a season to get to UFA, so he still cannot hold out. He is still subject to heavy fines if he does. And he would be coming to the negotiating table having just left the team for a season, which cannot help the team's view of him (assuming they would view it as a workaround holdout, not over true concern over COVID). Meanwhile, he will have earned nothing in 2020 and delayed himself by 1 year from his next payday, which is when he stands to get bigger money, whether via tag, extension from Minnesota, or signed a UFA contract. It just doesn't make sense.
The only thing that could change anything would be if the final terms negotiated on opting out provides an opportunity to opt back in later in the season. But even that is a risky move for Cook.
Look what happened to Gordon. He held out 4 games and Ekeler had 492 YFS and 6 TDs in those games. Gordon ended his holdout and averaged 2.5 ypc and 3.4 ypr with just 1 TD in his first 4 games back. That stretch included the game at TEN when he ran twice from the 1 yard line at the end of the game where a TD would win and a FG would tie... and he fumbled on the second carry and TEN recovered. Gordon was better in the last 8 games, but there is no question in my mind that he lost money overall.
The Vikings have Mattison; Cook would be taking a risk to assume that the Minnesota running game would flop without him. Even if Mattison isn't as good as Cook, he could be good enough to show that Cook isn't worth a lot more money to the Vikings.