JohnnyU
Footballguy
I have a tendency to be skeptical of players turning 28 and came out of nowhere. If that doesn't scream sell I don't know what does. Especially with all the offensive weapons they added during the draft.
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TE Darren Waller, NYG (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter Snorkelson
- Start date
Milkman
Footballguy
They are wrong all the time. Hopefully the owner who owns him sees that article too and you can trade for him. Barring injury theres zero chance Waller falls out of the top 10 this year and there's a greater than zero chance he is the #1 TE in FF this year. Ask yourself and count who else in the top 10 TE you can say that about and you'll have Wallers true ranking.
tombonneau
Footballguy
In my .5ppr he was the TE2. And that's with 3 TDs. Any negative regression in yards should be made up for in a positive regression in the RZ.
In his defense, there is at least a story behind how and why. He has all the physical attributes, beat a long history of substance abuse, and was finally focused on football. I'm not saying he will repeat, but the coming out of nowhere at least has some data and reason to back up why.
I expect a slight dip in volume, I think that's fair, but I just don't see why he shouldn't be drafted in the top 6. As has been mentioned, there is a lot of room for positive regression in his TD's, he was incredibly unlucky in that regard last year. He is currently going TE 5, somewhere in the 50 to 60 overall range it looks like. That sounds fair to me. Looking at who the next TE's are (Gronk, Engram, Henry, Hooper, Higbee), they all have question marks themselves.
As far as the added weapons, Waller only had 117 targets last year. Certainly a generous number for a TE, but even knocking 15-20% off of that leaves him with plenty for a very productive season.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
JohnnyU
Footballguy
......but...but...but he will be 28 in Sept and one year of productivity. Call me skeptical, especially with the weapons added during the draft.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Yeah that's fine, I don't think it's a bad take that he'll regress, I just don't think age has anything to do with it. At all.
I don't know if anyone said he would fall out of the top 10. Looking at the rankings only Parsons has him that low and he is clearly an outlier.
I like Waller, but looking at his adp he is an avoid for me as well. In his range around the late 5th/ early 6th there are some WR with good break out potential I would rather take. Engram goes pretty soon afterwards and he will have way less competition for targets. Or a full round later Henry will likely get a lot of check downs from Taylor. I would rather take those guys in the 6th or 7th.
Actually I probably won't be in that position anyway. I like to get one of the top guys.
I like Waller, but looking at his adp he is an avoid for me as well. In his range around the late 5th/ early 6th there are some WR with good break out potential I would rather take. Engram goes pretty soon afterwards and he will have way less competition for targets. Or a full round later Henry will likely get a lot of check downs from Taylor. I would rather take those guys in the 6th or 7th.
Actually I probably won't be in that position anyway. I like to get one of the top guys.
DocHolliday
Footballguy
Before everyone keeps repeating that Oakland added all these weapons, remember that the cupboard was bare. The Raiders best WR was a rookie slot WR last season. And, all these new weapons are rookies. As a Raider fan, I hope the rooks are great but the reality is that Oakland will be lucky if one is a starter. Riggs is already on crutches. Bowden is needed at RB and was in handcuffs a few days ago.
If it were just Ruggs and Bowden that would be fine. IMO Edwards is the biggest threat to take away targets from Waller
Edit: good point though. Maybe he doesn't lose that many. For me there'sjust other options I'd prefer at his adp
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The biggest PITA is Witten. They already had Moreau stealing redzone looks, now they've added the most annoying player in the history of football too.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Agreed, but hes still going to steal some targets. Hes been running the same damn 10 yard button hook at molasses speed for like 7 years now and somehow it still works. You know Gruden just loves that guy. Not saying he'll be good but certainly a nuisance.
Milkman
Footballguy
So I can see it now.
Allegiant Stadium
Gruden "Let's assess last year"
Gruden "What did we do right on offense?"
Olsen " Waller was amazing and Jacob's was solid when he was healthy"
Gruden "ok so let's stop throwing to Waller" "It was working to good"
Olsen "Yeah I didn't like using him either even know it was killing teams and they had no answer for Him"
Gruden "Right!" "I loved him last year and he made me look like a genius but I want him to be a decoy this year and let's focus on the receivers more"
Gruden "David!"
Carr "yeah coach?"
Gruden "You like going deep?"
Carr "No coach" "I much prefer to dink and dunk it to big WR with huge catch radius's "
Gruden "Great!" "We don't have any of those so we're going to say" "Screw it! Let's go deep!"
Carr "Yeah man I want to throw to guys I've never thrown too before" "Waller was elite last year but let's move in another direction" "Go deep to Ruggs a bunch"
Gruden "That's my boy!" "Let's make you do what you're horrible at!"
Carr
https://youtu.be/XFLQBUDa0uw
Allegiant Stadium
Gruden "Let's assess last year"
Gruden "What did we do right on offense?"
Olsen " Waller was amazing and Jacob's was solid when he was healthy"
Gruden "ok so let's stop throwing to Waller" "It was working to good"
Olsen "Yeah I didn't like using him either even know it was killing teams and they had no answer for Him"
Gruden "Right!" "I loved him last year and he made me look like a genius but I want him to be a decoy this year and let's focus on the receivers more"
Gruden "David!"
Carr "yeah coach?"
Gruden "You like going deep?"
Carr "No coach" "I much prefer to dink and dunk it to big WR with huge catch radius's "
Gruden "Great!" "We don't have any of those so we're going to say" "Screw it! Let's go deep!"
Carr "Yeah man I want to throw to guys I've never thrown too before" "Waller was elite last year but let's move in another direction" "Go deep to Ruggs a bunch"
Gruden "That's my boy!" "Let's make you do what you're horrible at!"
Carr
https://youtu.be/XFLQBUDa0uw
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Oakland was almost top 10 in total yards, but bottom 10 in points. So whatever they were doing wasn't working when it mattered the most. If they don't make changes they won't improve. Having more weapons to diversify your approach can help. Being predictable and throwing to Waller all the time didn't get them enough points.
Breezy H2O
Footballguy
I feel like he was over targeted by necessity last year. Raiders added a ton of weapons.
But he should be able to get wide open on some play action. If the offense moves better this year, could see more RZ opportunities as a team.
If team regresses on offense, his floor crumbles a bit. Need to do some research on Raiders o-line prior to that so I can make a hasty decision on where to draft him.
But he should be able to get wide open on some play action. If the offense moves better this year, could see more RZ opportunities as a team.
If team regresses on offense, his floor crumbles a bit. Need to do some research on Raiders o-line prior to that so I can make a hasty decision on where to draft him.
It's not Witten to worry about. I don't even know why that guy is still playing
It's the rookie WRs (Ruggs mainly and to a lesser extent Edwards)--who regardless of whether they turn into stars or not--clearly look to be a part of the Raiders' future plans
It's Foster Moreau--a sophomore TE who showed promise and high end age adjusted efficiency to go along with a similarly (to Waller) elite athletic profile
And it's the guy at QB who for some reason is expected to feed all these guys.
And if Jacobs gets receiving work that throws another wrench
Waller is a good player but I am not one to trust 27 year old breakouts and I never really saw anything to say elite talent--just an elite situation that got a bit worse last year when Renfrow returned (and Waller's numbers dipped) and a lot worse this offseason
I liked him a lot last year on a team I expected would have favorable game scripts and a lack of WRs--landed him as a stash on all my redrafts and as TE
But now is the time to sell--not as good as before the draft, but at mid TE1 value I'd still do it. Wouldn't surprise me to see him slip from the top 12 completely and for Moreau to emerge as an equal
It's the rookie WRs (Ruggs mainly and to a lesser extent Edwards)--who regardless of whether they turn into stars or not--clearly look to be a part of the Raiders' future plans
It's Foster Moreau--a sophomore TE who showed promise and high end age adjusted efficiency to go along with a similarly (to Waller) elite athletic profile
And it's the guy at QB who for some reason is expected to feed all these guys.
And if Jacobs gets receiving work that throws another wrench
Waller is a good player but I am not one to trust 27 year old breakouts and I never really saw anything to say elite talent--just an elite situation that got a bit worse last year when Renfrow returned (and Waller's numbers dipped) and a lot worse this offseason
I liked him a lot last year on a team I expected would have favorable game scripts and a lack of WRs--landed him as a stash on all my redrafts and as TE
But now is the time to sell--not as good as before the draft, but at mid TE1 value I'd still do it. Wouldn't surprise me to see him slip from the top 12 completely and for Moreau to emerge as an equal
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Milkman
Footballguy
Hope you don't think I'm picking on you @KChusker I am certainly not.
Ruggs doesn't worry me at all. He's not the type of receiver that's going to be heavily targeted in this offense. Edwards could easy get more targets this year than Ruggs. Agree Witten is nothing.
Love what I saw from Waller last year. He fits this offense perfectly. The west coast offense is a dink and dunk offense. Carr is a dink and dunk QB. Waller has established himself as Carr's safety valve. Gruden loves Waller. He is his type of player and Gruden saved him. The 27 year old breakout doesn't concern me as much because we all know why it was a late breakout. If it wasn't for the drug problem he would likely have broken out sooner. Waller is a stud.
I predict that will continue this year and I predict Ruggs won't lead the rookie WR in targets barring an injury. Good chance Waller has some positive regression in the TD department too.
If anything the offense will get better this year and there will be more room for someone else to emerge as well. Depends on Carr.
Ruggs doesn't worry me at all. He's not the type of receiver that's going to be heavily targeted in this offense. Edwards could easy get more targets this year than Ruggs. Agree Witten is nothing.
Love what I saw from Waller last year. He fits this offense perfectly. The west coast offense is a dink and dunk offense. Carr is a dink and dunk QB. Waller has established himself as Carr's safety valve. Gruden loves Waller. He is his type of player and Gruden saved him. The 27 year old breakout doesn't concern me as much because we all know why it was a late breakout. If it wasn't for the drug problem he would likely have broken out sooner. Waller is a stud.
I predict that will continue this year and I predict Ruggs won't lead the rookie WR in targets barring an injury. Good chance Waller has some positive regression in the TD department too.
If anything the offense will get better this year and there will be more room for someone else to emerge as well. Depends on Carr.
Have you watched Ruggs? I am not very high on him at all, and laughed when the Raiders took him over Jeudy until I realized that meant the Broncos were getting Jeudy. Actually I was really low on him and had him right near Edwards until I saw some more of him and bumped him up a bit--still at the consensus or even slightly below it, but this is what I saw
He is not what you expect from speed WRs like Reagor, Ross or Hollywood
He is not a complete WR at all and there's a reason he didn't produce much at Alabama
BUT a ton of his work comes after the catch underneath on slants and crosses and on screens--not the run downfield and chuck it type WR
If Hunter Renfrow coming back was enough to slow down Waller's production, then superior talents like Ruggs and Edwards definitely can cut into it further
I don't think he sucks at all--just that he had a near elite season and is not an elite talent
I am probably higher on Foster Moreau that most people--even Raider fans--are.
Btw I don't think Carr should or will be the Raiders QB in 2021 unless he convincingly finishes 2nd in the division (cuz 1st is off the table) and looks at least competent in a playoff game
Gruden may be from the WCO school but he has never been one for safe QBs who chuck it away on 4th down and check down repeatedly rather than throw into tight windows
tombonneau
Footballguy
One of the reasons I love Waller so much in dynasty is the Moreau has looked good as well. Cheap young quality handcuff. He should produce if Waller goes down and when Waller walks could step right into the role.
rockaction
Footballguy
You should watch harder. Ruggs has soft hands, attacks the ball at its high point, and does other things that make differences in the NFL. He certainly can beat guys deep, it just seemed like Tua had a Jeudy blanket that he knew was always open, therefore, why risk Ruggs? There's even film of both Ruggs and Jeudy wipe open (I think I'm thinking of Matt Waldman's film room) and Tua throws the safer route to Jeudy. I'm biased because I picked Ruggs first in my rookie draft, but that's what I saw on game highlights and some film breakdowns.
The making fun of the Raiders is something I would have done regardless of the pick. In case you missed the "KC" part, I hate the Raiders
That aside: my laughing at the Ruggs pick was before I had seen him. I still like Jeudy more even after watching Ruggs but seeing him did raise my ranking of him from mid to late 2nd to early 2nd/late 1st. Still like Jeudy, Jefferson, Lamb and Mims more and Pittman just as much and can't ignore how big of an outlier Ruggs would be to "hit" with how little he produced in college
Sure but again I don't think you are considering that Ruggs isn't John Ross. He can make an impact off YAC on short routes just as easy as he can go deep
Again I keep going back to Renfrow cutting into Waller's numbers. Now there are two guys significantly better than Renfrow entering
Waller will have his role but the target share is definitely coming down now that his competition isn't Keelan Doss, Zay Jones and Jalen Richard
Milkman
Footballguy
So you don't see a path for Waller where the underneath stuff is more open and defenses stop using their #1 CB on him freeing him up more? That's not possible imo?
He will have his role without a doubt. I see it capped out at low TE1.
In redraft: Way rather gamble on Goedert or Gesicki a few rounds later and the limited target competition they have (Ertz, no one) and (Parker, no one) or at similar ADP: Hunter Henry (who I just think is a better player and also only has KA to deal with) or Hurst (who has more passing volume and a better QB despite more competition)
In dynasty I imagine that role progressively shrinking as Ruggs and Edwards get better and command more targets, as Foster Moreau develops in the way I imagine he will and possibly even Bowden stealing some of the underneath stuff
Thus I don't see a better opportunity to sell opening up than now or him ever reaching last year's production
That doesn't mean he will suck
Milkman
Footballguy
Fair enough. The only thing I see as a significant risk to Waller's target share is a drug relapse. I think it's a significant risk too so that's why I have him as my TE7 in dynasty. If it wasn't for that I'd have him as TE3 behind Kittle and Kelce.
I actually think he is fine on the drug front. I guess though with drug problems you never know
With or without that though I see zero case to have Waller at TE3 ahead of a player who was a better prospect, was more productive last year, is on a better offense, the unchallenged number 1 passing option on that offense, tied to a 23 year old reigning MVP at QB and is flat out better while also being younger
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Milkman
Footballguy
Yeah it's close with those two for me for sure. I prefer Waller but wouldn't fault anybody for taking Andrews in front of him.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Milkman
Footballguy
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Milkman
Footballguy
Oh I thought you meant there was no interest.
He does have significant off the field risk that needs to be priced in. Nobody including myself prices that right.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Milkman
Footballguy
If you mean a couples years ago yes but the odds are stacked against him.
If he relapses he'll be worth nothing in a blink of an eye.
If you're trying to get a top 2-3 TE haul for him it's not likely going to happen.
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JohnnyU
Footballguy
What do you think he's worth? I figure he's worth around a mid-2nd because of his production. He turns 28 in a month, so that keeps his value down. Owners trying to trade for him want to give a 3rd and he's worth more than a 3rd IMO.
Milkman
Footballguy
Yeah I'd trade a mid 2nd for him in a heartbeat.
I offered Goedert + 3rd for him and was snapped rejected.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Same
I don't get the sense from the rejections I've gotten that people are concerned about his past. They're worried about Ruggs, Renfrow, etc, mouths to feed and all that. Mostly it has been me shopping him rather than the one receiving offers. Most people think he is a 1 year wonder. Could be right. I think he is better than that.
Not to be underestimated here is the undercurrent, which is "TEs are just hard to move".
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Wow. I'm close to as big of a Waller truther as you'll find here and I have always avoided Goedert because of Ertz, but I think I would run to accept this.
