Dynasty Value Discussion Thread

[ffmail4me 926]

4 minutes ago, Run It Up said:

Yeah im relatively strong at rb, KJ was half my depth though lol.

Have CMC, David Johnson, Aaron Jones. Must start 1, can start 3.

Now have the 1.02, 1.09, 1.10, 1.11, 2.02

I have the 1.8, 1.10, 1.11, and 2.2 picks in one of my drafts. Just curious who you think you'll target/land there? 

[Run It Up 916]

1 minute ago, ffmail4me said:

I have the 1.8, 1.10, 1.11, and 2.2 picks in one of my drafts. Just curious who you think you'll target/land there? 

A lot can change with the draft but there are a handful of WRs id like to have a couple of, and being TE premium I'm interested in Hockenson, Fant and Sternberger.

New found scarcity at RB might push me towards Damien Harris or Bryce Love.

[ffmail4me 926]

1 minute ago, Run It Up said:

A lot can change with the draft but there are a handful of WRs id like to have a couple of, and being TE premium I'm interested in Hockenson, Fant and Sternberger.

New found scarcity at RB might push me towards Damien Harris or Bryce Love.

I'm guessing regardless of roster needs either Hockenson or Fant has to go in that area, and I'm liking more WRs than RBs in that spot. I'd have to see where Love or Harris gets drafted/situation to consider either there though. 

[Hankmoody 3,823]

What about ASJ in NE?  Is this the typical over-hyped "anything NE touches turn to gold, except that it's really only been Julian Edelman and a one-flash Randy Moss" situation?  Or is this a 27 year old beast that might be able to reach somewhere near 80% of his potential finally?

[ffmail4me 926]

1 minute ago, Hankmoody said:

What about ASJ in NE?  Is this the typical over-hyped "anything NE touches turn to gold, except that it's really only been Julian Edelman and a one-flash Randy Moss" situation?  Or is this a 27 year old beast that might be able to reach somewhere near 80% of his potential finally?

I'm probably wrong but I think he's just a camp body. I think everyone on the planet expects NE to draft Hock, Fant, or Smith 

[Hankmoody 3,823]

5 minutes ago, ffmail4me said:

I'm probably wrong but I think he's just a camp body. I think everyone on the planet expects NE to draft Hock, Fant, or Smith 

That doesn't preclude anything with ASJ though.  NEP are the one place I would trust to put the guy to use if he has the chops.  I'd love to have Aaron Hernandez at ASJ's current price.

Besides that, mocks are absolute garbage and anyone pretending to know what any NFL team is "likely" to do outside of a few QB situations is laughable.  No one has any clue if any of those TE's will even be there, let alone if NE believes they'd be the best option at the moment.  It's pure speculation and a total dart throw.

[travdogg 3,074]

3 hours ago, Hankmoody said:

What about ASJ in NE?  Is this the typical over-hyped "anything NE touches turn to gold, except that it's really only been Julian Edelman and a one-flash Randy Moss" situation?  Or is this a 27 year old beast that might be able to reach somewhere near 80% of his potential finally?

Wes Welker had a lot of success, certainly more than Edelman, and arguably more than Moss in NE. 

I think ASJ is fool's gold. Its been 5 years, he's likely already played his best ball, and it wasn't all that good. Sure if he's free to pick up on waivers, go for it, but he's not a guy to be targeted in my opinion. Chances are New England brings in at least 2-3 pass catchers in the draft, and its possible Philip Dorsett plays a bigger role this year, and we can't truly rule out Josh Gordon either. 

If I owned him, I'd be trying to sell right now.

[Run It Up 916]

4 hours ago, ffmail4me said:

I'm probably wrong but I think he's just a camp body. I think everyone on the planet expects NE to draft Hock, Fant, or Smith 

This is close to my position. I dont think he will be their te1 under any circumstance - he needs to be able to block to earn that position. Which makes him a rotational at best player. Likely camp body.

[Run It Up 916]

1 hour ago, travdogg said:

Wes Welker had a lot of success, certainly more than Edelman.

I used to think Wes was the second best WR in the Brady/Belichick era and the best slot receiver in that time span.

I don't think Welker is better than Edelman, the argument used to be that Welker was a compiler in a system which i think is a joke, but its clear as day that Edelman is capable of what Welker was while at the same time playing at a top 10 level on the outside.

Steve Smith Sr. Saying that Edelman is a top 10 WR in skill isnt hyperbole.

[FF Ninja 2,842]

6 hours ago, Denver724 said:

Interested to hear what others have to say. Personally, I would rather have a 21 year old KJ. 

I agree with this, but I can understand some concern for KJ's 2019 season. There's a possibility that CJ Anderson Tolberts KJ's TDs and Riddick pulls a Woodhead on his targets. If that happens, KJ's value could decrease as the season progresses. Also, after ending last season injured, another injury could earn him the dreaded injury-prone label. So holding him does carry some risk.

[travdogg 3,074]

6 minutes ago, Run It Up said:

I used to think Wes was the second best WR in the Brady/Belichick era and the best slot receiver in that time span.

I don't think Welker is better than Edelman, the argument used to be that Welker was a compiler in a system which i think is a joke, but its clear as day that Edelman is capable of what Welker was while at the same time playing at a top 10 level on the outside.

Steve Smith Sr. Saying that Edelman is a top 10 WR in skill isnt hyperbole.

I would disagree with all of this. Edelman isn't a top-10 overall WR while playing inside, if he played outside full time, he'd be even lower. 

Welker was a great WR, better route runner,and better after the catch than Edelman. Equal hands I'd say, they both drop more passes than one would expect. 

Edelman's best season wouldn't crack Welker's top-5. The Patriots built the passing game around Welker for years. Edelman has been a key cog, but that is it. 

Frankly, Amendola was closer to Edelman, than Edelman is to Welker in my opinion.

[FF Ninja 2,842]

4 hours ago, Hankmoody said:

What about ASJ in NE?  Is this the typical over-hyped "anything NE touches turn to gold, except that it's really only been Julian Edelman and a one-flash Randy Moss" situation?  Or is this a 27 year old beast that might be able to reach somewhere near 80% of his potential finally?

It'll be interesting to see where he goes in real drafts. He was going undrafted in redrafts I've seen with 300 players rostered. But until I see his new pricing or some dynasty trades, I'm guessing he's not in the over-hyped group yet. If any top 10 passing offense had a massive void at TE, I'd think ASJ signing there would've bumped his value. Given the Pats' previous history of rehabbing value in "lost cause" types, I think ASJ is likely worth a flyer. Brady is no longer a deep passer, so a big body like ASJ has potential for volume. He seemed to be getting his career on track, but then picked a bad location in free agency. Did anybody expect big things in JAX? So as far as I'm concerned, the guy still has his act together and is now in a TE friendly situation. He'll be 27 when the season starts. That's the age Kyle Rudolph was when he had his first season over 500 yards. Depending on the league and settings, I'd pay at least a 3rd for him if I needed TE help. If he makes it through camp and is poised to be a starter, I wouldn't fault anyone for paying a 2nd. 

2 hours ago, Hankmoody said:

mocks are absolute garbage 

So true. They really are nothing but clickbait. There is nothing to be gleaned from them*.

*with the caveat that I saw a composite of like 60 mocks on reddit and all that was good for was giving you an idea of what round each prospect might go in. Actual landing spots are anyone's guess.

[Hankmoody 3,823]

6 hours ago, travdogg said:

Wes Welker had a lot of success, certainly more than Edelman, and arguably more than Moss in NE. 

I think ASJ is fool's gold. Its been 5 years, he's likely already played his best ball, and it wasn't all that good. Sure if he's free to pick up on waivers, go for it, but he's not a guy to be targeted in my opinion. Chances are New England brings in at least 2-3 pass catchers in the draft, and its possible Philip Dorsett plays a bigger role this year, and we can't truly rule out Josh Gordon either. 

If I owned him, I'd be trying to sell right now.

Bleh I meant Welker.  Edelman wasn't a reclamation, he was drafted by them.

[DreamTheater 48]

found this offer in mailbox today....

Giving Shepard and I Thomas for Gallup, 2019 2.1 and 2020 2nd (likely top)

[Run It Up 916]

14 minutes ago, hispeedthinmint said:

Any Fournette deals going down lately? I want to cash out

I traded Tyreek for Fournette and the 1.10 before Fournette got arrested.

[menobrown 4,332]

21 minutes ago, hispeedthinmint said:

Any Fournette deals going down lately? I want to cash out

I traded Tevin Coleman and the 1.10 for him a few weeks ago and would happily again.

Seems like a bad time to cash out if you ask me. Personally I'm trying to buy.

[travdogg 3,074]

37 minutes ago, DreamTheater said:

found this offer in mailbox today....

Giving Shepard and I Thomas for Gallup, 2019 2.1 and 2020 2nd (likely top)

Feels like an easy accept to me. 

[FF Ninja 2,842]

3 hours ago, travdogg said:

Feels like an easy accept to me. 

I'd rather keep Shepard and Thomas. I know as we approach the draft, we talk ourselves into a lot of 2nd round picks, but statistically they are pretty much dart throws. Shepard and Ian Thomas may not be superstars, but they are both better than can be expected from 2nd round picks. I think, at least for this season without OBJ, that Shepard will be pretty close to WR24 and when Olsen retires, Ian Thomas looks like a potential top 10 TE. He came on strong last year as a rookie (25/246/2 in last 5 games). 

[Rockchild 124]

4 hours ago, hispeedthinmint said:

Any Fournette deals going down lately? I want to cash out

Saw him go for the 1.02 in one of my leagues the day before the latest trouble.

[jtd13 679]

I recently sent Corey Davis, Ito Smith, and a 5 pick bump in the early 3rd for Fournette. It was maybe 3 days before his recent arrest, but I'd still probably do it.

[Concept Coop 1,764]

I recently traded Fournette for Guice. I don't feel great about it - and I'd probably take it back if I could, honestly - but in the moment, I wanted off the bus. 

Edit: I also tried to trade him for Kerryon and Amari (individually), without luck. 

Edited April 16, 2019 by Concept Coop

[Arodin 3,083]

How about a rookie pick price check on Corey Davis?  How do you see him stacking up against the top prospects from this year’s (or next year’s) draft?

[travdogg 3,074]

1 hour ago, FF Ninja said:

I'd rather keep Shepard and Thomas. I know as we approach the draft, we talk ourselves into a lot of 2nd round picks, but statistically they are pretty much dart throws. Shepard and Ian Thomas may not be superstars, but they are both better than can be expected from 2nd round picks. I think, at least for this season without OBJ, that Shepard will be pretty close to WR24 and when Olsen retires, Ian Thomas looks like a potential top 10 TE. He came on strong last year as a rookie (25/246/2 in last 5 games). 

I'm not as high on Thomas or Shepard, and might be higher on Gallup. I don't think Shepard is any lock to be ahead of Golden Tate or even Evan Engram in NY. I view Shepard and the 2.1 as about equal. 

Thomas had a nice finish to last season, but I think he's worth less than Gallup for me, add in basically getting a free 2020 2nd rounder, that is thought to be on the higher side, and I think its a good trade.

[King of the Jungle 1,447]

12 minutes ago, Arodin said:

How about a rookie pick price check on Corey Davis?  How do you see him stacking up against the top prospects from this year’s (or next year’s) draft?

I think he was a much better receiver prospect coming out of school than any of the wideouts in this class. With that being said his situation is about as bad as it can be. An injury riddled QB and an old school run first mentality don’t spell FF success. I would probably pay a top 5 pick for him but I am not real high on this class. I am sure some of these guys will go on to be successful but trying to identify those is difficult this year (especially before the draft). I also have hopes that Corey keeps developing and at some point TEN turns into a marginal passing offense.

[Biabreakable 5,202]

On 4/16/2019 at 10:19 AM, DreamTheater said:

found this offer in mailbox today....

Giving Shepard and I Thomas for Gallup, 2019 2.1 and 2020 2nd (likely top)

I would take this trade, I think it is slightly in your favor because of the 2020 pick.

Shephard is the best player in this deal so I also understand his side of the deal.

I think Shephard has been over valued for his career so far. I can see the appeal of more volume for Shephard due to his new contract following OBJ trade. I just dont think he is good enough to get the targets. Too many other good options on that offense.

It's a deal that is likely a win for him in the 2019 season, but will be a win for you after that.

As far as Ninjas claim that you can't find good players like this with those 2nd round picks.. well Ian Thomas was a 3rd round pick in rookie drafts, Gallup 2nd rounder and Shephard was a 1st rounder but imo overdrafted.

Edited April 17, 2019 by Biabreakable

[Interseptopus 5,722]

On 4/16/2019 at 10:19 AM, DreamTheater said:

found this offer in mailbox today....

Giving Shepard and I Thomas for Gallup, 2019 2.1 and 2020 2nd (likely top)

I think I'd take that trade without the 2020 2nd... seems like an instant accept to me. several wrs at 2.1 I'd like better than Shepard, and Gallup is very under valued. did great with cooper and has less competition at wr. 2020 2nd is a bonus

[barackdhouse 2,599]

1 hour ago, Biabreakable said:

 

As far as Ninjas claim that you can't find good players like this with those 2nd round picks.. well Ian Thomas was a 3rd round pick in rookie drafts, Gallup 2nd rounder and Shephard was a 1st rounder but imo overdrafted.

This is obviously an extreme exception to the rule, but I got Kittle in the 6th round of a couple rookie drafts in FFPC (included cut FAs but still). I suppose Lindsay is another example, too. I'd have to check where he went but it was super late.

[Biabreakable 5,202]

21 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

This is obviously an extreme exception to the rule, but I got Kittle in the 6th round of a couple rookie drafts in FFPC (included cut FAs but still). I suppose Lindsay is another example, too. I'd have to check where he went but it was super late.

Huh. Kittle should have been on the radar in TE premium format. I think you got lucky there. Linday was likely undrafted in a lot leagues.

I like the depth at WR of this draft class enough that I think there is going to be good value in the 2nd round. Even though the RB are not as good as they have been recently, I think it makes for a stronger overall group of prospects to draft for fantasy. I think this WR class is the best I have seen since 2014. 

So that 13th pick is pretty valuable imo. Perhaps close to Shephard  itself.

[skinfanjon 237]

I don't get the fascination a couple of posters have with Gallup.  Bad QB, offense runs through RB, 2nd receiving option...I'd still probably make this trade (depending on my roster) but he'd be the third reason why.

Edited April 17, 2019 by skinfanjon

[menobrown 4,332]

1 hour ago, barackdhouse said:

This is obviously an extreme exception to the rule, but I got Kittle in the 6th round of a couple rookie drafts in FFPC (included cut FAs but still).

In just last two years of FFPC leagues I've drafted Kittle, Ian Thomas, and Herndon in 6th round or later along with Golladay and Cohen.

So yes you can find a lot of players later in drafts, some years anyway, but key is not just drafting them but drafting them and having foresight to not cut them. For me drafting those TE's did me zero good, I cut them all.

[skinfanjon 237]

49 minutes ago, menobrown said:

In just last two years of FFPC leagues I've drafted Kittle, Ian Thomas, and Herndon in 6th round or later along with Golladay and Cohen.

So yes you can find a lot of players later in drafts, some years anyway, but key is not just drafting them but drafting them and having foresight to not cut them. For me drafting those TE's did me zero good, I cut them all.

Yeah with 16 man cutdowns, roster spots are premium.  Rarely do you have time to wait a season for a 6th round pick.

[barackdhouse 2,599]

2 hours ago, menobrown said:

In just last two years of FFPC leagues I've drafted Kittle, Ian Thomas, and Herndon in 6th round or later along with Golladay and Cohen.

So yes you can find a lot of players later in drafts, some years anyway, but key is not just drafting them but drafting them and having foresight to not cut them. For me drafting those TE's did me zero good, I cut them all.

I know what you mean, but I was able to keep Kittle in the spots I drafted him. He looked good out of a pro style offense at Iowa, stud athletically, looked like he was going to be the starter. But I missed on a bunch of others. I had Herndon and cut him prematurely as well. 

[FreeBaGeL 9,534]

Cutting Kittle in FFPC still haunts me to this day. 

It's comforting to at least know I'm not alone on that one. 

[Zyphros 2,032]

3 hours ago, skinfanjon said:

I don't get the fascination a couple of posters have with Gallup.  Bad QB, offense runs through RB, 2nd receiving option...I'd still probably make this trade (depending on my roster) but he'd be the third reason why.

Can't speak for others but he was one of my favorites of last years class of WR's.  Solid all across the board and I expect that offense to continue its leap forward since the Amari deal.  Once he came aboard, Gallup could play his role rather comfortably, and he did well.  No reason not to expect a 2nd year jump from a guy that came into the league at 22 and showed well.  I get the reasons of concerns about Dak or feeding Zeke, but he was miscast as a #1 going into the year after they drafted him, solved that issue by trading for Amari, and then he started improving.  If he were 24-25 coming into the league sure I would think he was capped as that, but he recently turned 23 with room to grow.  

[menobrown 4,332]

58 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Cutting Kittle in FFPC still haunts me to this day. 

It's comforting to at least know I'm not alone on that one. 

Not only have  I cut Kittle but I also cut Kelce in an FFPC league. I'd had him on IR after using a third round pick on him and ran out of IR spots so cut him figuring if I drafted him in round 3 coming out of college then surely coming off a microfacture surgery I could redraft him in round 3 if not 4 but I never had a chance. These are hard things to get over for sure, I think of stuff like all the work on trades, value of first round picks and the such and that's basically just giving away multiple 1's. 

[skinfanjon 237]

30 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

Can't speak for others but he was one of my favorites of last years class of WR's.  Solid all across the board and I expect that offense to continue its leap forward since the Amari deal.  Once he came aboard, Gallup could play his role rather comfortably, and he did well.  No reason not to expect a 2nd year jump from a guy that came into the league at 22 and showed well.  I get the reasons of concerns about Dak or feeding Zeke, but he was miscast as a #1 going into the year after they drafted him, solved that issue by trading for Amari, and then he started improving.  If he were 24-25 coming into the league sure I would think he was capped as that, but he recently turned 23 with room to grow.  

No way that offense can support two startable wide receivers.  Personally I think he's a compentant TE away from being rendered irrelevant completely.  Dallas opened up a little bit last year and I think that's the direction they're headed, but they'll primarily be a between the hashmarks team as long as Dak is running things. 

I saw somewhere you called him a top 60ish player, not counting rookies, which is half of his current adp according to Mizelle.  You can like him but going way over market value for that situation (WR2 on Dallas) regardless of his ability (which was not all that prolific coming out besides the point) seems nuts to me.

[FF Ninja 2,842]

15 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

As far as Ninjas claim that you can't find good players like this with those 2nd round picks.. well Ian Thomas was a 3rd round pick in rookie drafts, Gallup 2nd rounder and Shephard was a 1st rounder but imo overdrafted.

You're twisting my words. I said 2nd round picks are dart throws. I didn't say you can't hit with them. People have gone back and studied years of rookie drafts. If memory serves, second round picks have a 25% or lower hit rate. Early 1st round picks were close to 50%.

[Dr. Octopus 17,521]

16 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

As far as Ninjas claim that you can't find good players like this with those 2nd round picks..

That clearly was not his claim.

[tangfoot 2,133]

11 hours ago, skinfanjon said:

Personally I think he's a compentant TE away from being rendered irrelevant completely.

That's a pretty strong take for a player entering his 2nd season with a young QB, stud WR1 and ultra-stud RB.  Yes, the offense rolls through Zeke, but they can (and probably will) be far more balanced than they have been the past two seasons.

Also, I'm not certain that Witten qualifies as a competent TE these days.

[Concept Coop 1,764]

11 hours ago, skinfanjon said:

No way that offense can support two startable wide receivers.  Personally I think he's a compentant TE away from being rendered irrelevant completely.  Dallas opened up a little bit last year and I think that's the direction they're headed, but they'll primarily be a between the hashmarks team as long as Dak is running things. 

I saw somewhere you called him a top 60ish player, not counting rookies, which is half of his current adp according to Mizelle.  You can like him but going way over market value for that situation (WR2 on Dallas) regardless of his ability (which was not all that prolific coming out besides the point) seems nuts to me.

I think you’re being a bit harsh on his situation. Who’d have thought Dalton’s Bengals could support two top 20 guys? If Gallup is the real deal - if he’s getting open regularly - he’ll score points. 

I’m not a big Gallup guy, but his situation wouldn’t scare me off if I was.

[SayWhat? 4,207]

8 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

Also, I'm not certain that Witten qualifies as a competent TE these days.

I don’t think he does, which is why I believe skinfan was saying that he’s a competent TE away from being nonrelevant.  I don’t think he’ll be nonrelevant, but if they add a better TE it’ll be all the more mouths to feed in an offense that doesn’t feed many mouths.

[Andy Dufresne 13,365]

To me, Gallup is the kind of guy whose end of year stats look pretty decent but you frustratingly chase that production on a weekly basis.

[Concept Coop 1,764]

19 minutes ago, SayWhat? said:

I don’t think he does, which is why I believe skinfan was saying that he’s a competent TE away from being nonrelevant.  I don’t think he’ll be nonrelevant, but if they add a better TE it’ll be all the more mouths to feed in an offense that doesn’t feed many mouths.

They had a couple competent TEs last year, in terms of receiving ability. They need better blocking from the position. And I think they’d love to cut Elliott’s targets by at least 25.

“Cowboys tight ends in 2018: 68 catches, 710 yards, 4 TDs
Cowboys tight ends in 2017: 69 catches, 673 yards, 6 TDs”

Edited April 18, 2019 by Concept Coop

[SayWhat? 4,207]

6 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

They had a couple competent TEs last year, in terms of receiving ability. They need better blocking from the position. And I think they’d love to cut Elliott’s targets by at least 25.

“Cowboys tight ends in 2018: 68 catches, 710 yards, 4 TDs
Cowboys tight ends in 2017: 69 catches, 673 yards, 6 TDs”

Jarwin, Schultz, and Swaim may be “competent” in the truest definition of the word, sure.  I would say this, that trio is very easily replaceable by a TE that’s more of a threat for targets than guys of their caliber have been.  And when (not if) that happens, that upgraded TE will be more of a threat for targets than they have collectively been.

[Zyphros 2,032]

11 hours ago, skinfanjon said:

No way that offense can support two startable wide receivers.  Personally I think he's a compentant TE away from being rendered irrelevant completely.  Dallas opened up a little bit last year and I think that's the direction they're headed, but they'll primarily be a between the hashmarks team as long as Dak is running things. 

I saw somewhere you called him a top 60ish player, not counting rookies, which is half of his current adp according to Mizelle.  You can like him but going way over market value for that situation (WR2 on Dallas) regardless of his ability (which was not all that prolific coming out besides the point) seems nuts to me.

Competent TE away, but they're likely not to address that issue.  All of Jarwin, Swaim, and Shultz showed something last year and they re-signed Witten for his "leadership" not his pass catching skills.  So I don't see that as a priority at all.  Just saying if you don't think a 500 yard season on limited targets isn't a good start, then I think you're mistaken.  If you expect offensive improvement, you're almost obligated to say Gallup will improve as well.  There isn't anyone else.  Beasley is gone and Witten should of stayed retired.  

[Concept Coop 1,764]

6 minutes ago, SayWhat? said:

Jarwin, Schultz, and Swaim may be “competent” in the truest definition of the word, sure.  I would say this, that trio is very easily replaceable by a TE that’s more of a threat for targets than guys of their caliber have been.  And when (not if) that happens, that upgraded TE will be more of a threat for targets than they have collectively been.

If Jarwin could block like Swaim, he’d be a very promising prospect and the Cowboys would be set. I agree that the TE group is a mess, but only because they don’t have one complete guy who can get open, catch, and block. So yes, it will be easily for Dallas to drastically improve the position, but it won’t be so easy to drastically improve the receiving aspect of the position.

I hope I’m making sense. I’m sure there’s a better way to put it.

[Concept Coop 1,764]

Quick rant. 

PFF is using Yards Before Contact as a measure of offensive line performance. On the surface, that sounds reasonable. Except that they're using it to suggest that Philip Lindsay received more help from his offensive line than Royce Freeman did. The same offensive line...against the same defenses...on the same downs.

Yards before Contact
Lindsay: 3.2
Freeman: 0.8

It's baffling to me that they're going with this - and it's not just one analyst either. How in the world do you take these data to be a comment on offensive line performance, rather than running back performance (edit: when using it to compare Lindsay and Freeman)?! This is something I'd expect to see a guest writer on one of the small fantasy sites push. Not PFF. (Especially when their player grade loved Lindsay and not Freeman.) 

The more likely answer is that Lindsay was better at getting those yards. He was more patient, displayed better vision, was harder for defenders to identify (smaller), and much quicker through the hole. 

Anyway, this will likely cause me to be more careful about using metrics like this. I let YAC play a big role in my targeting Ajayi and Drake recently, and was burned in both cases. 

Edit: I still like PFF's player grade. I just think we can get in trouble trying to treat football like we do baseball, in terms of analytics. 
 

Edited April 18, 2019 by Concept Coop

[FF Ninja 2,842]

15 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

Quick rant. 

PFF is using Yards Before Contact as a measure of offensive line performance. On the surface, that sounds reasonable. Except that they're using it to suggest that Philip Lindsay received more help from his offensive line than Royce Freeman did. The same offensive line...against the same defenses...on the same downs.

Yards before Contact
Lindsay: 3.2
Freeman: 0.8

It's baffling to me that they're going with this - and it's not just one analyst either. How in the world do you take these data to be a comment on offensive line performance, rather than running back performance?! This is something I'd expect to see a guest writer on one of the small fantasy sites push. Not PFF. (Especially when their player grade loved Lindsay and not Freeman.)

The obvious answer is that Lindsay was better at getting those yards. He was more patient, displayed better vision, was harder for defenders to identify (smaller), and much quicker through the hole. 

Anyway, this will likely cause me to be more careful about using metrics like this. I let YAC play a big role in my targeting Ajayi and Drake recently, and was burned in both cases. 

It would be interesting to see if they were really running out of the same formations and against the same sized boxes. Also keep in mind that Freeman was dealing with a HAS. As a loose rule of thumb, I always buy players coming off a high ankle sprain. They always perform poorly when they return from injury in-season and people always attribute it to a lack of skill.

P.S. *Meaningless conjecture disclaimer* I get a strong Andre Ellington vibe from Lindsay. Maybe it's just a lazy comp because they were both small, old rookies. But Ellington looked like the real deal his rookie year, got one crack at the starting gig, got injured, never got another shot. Such is the plight of small UDFA/late round RBs. They don't have 9 lives like bigger backs with more pedigree.

[Concept Coop 1,764]

25 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

It would be interesting to see if they were really running out of the same formations and against the same sized boxes. Also keep in mind that Freeman was dealing with a HAS. As a loose rule of thumb, I always buy players coming off a high ankle sprain. They always perform poorly when they return from injury in-season and people always attribute it to a lack of skill.

P.S. *Meaningless conjecture disclaimer* I get a strong Andre Ellington vibe from Lindsay. Maybe it's just a lazy comp because they were both small, old rookies. But Ellington looked like the real deal his rookie year, got one crack at the starting gig, got injured, never got another shot. Such is the plight of small UDFA/late round RBs. They don't have 9 lives like bigger backs with more pedigree.

The stacked box rate was about the same for both guys - and both guys got most of their work on 1st and 2nd down. From what I remember watching, they were used similarly.

If their situations - same line, same games, same downs, same defenses - aren't comparable enough, then no two situations are and the stat is worthless. How do you even start to compare Zeke to Gurley, then? (And that's kind of my point: maybe we shouldn't use these kind of metrics to do so.)

I don't mean to use this as an argument for or against either guy moving forward, necessarily. Just pointing out how silly their conclusion was. 

Edit: And Freeman had a better YAC, FTR. 

Edited April 18, 2019 by Concept Coop

[Andy Dufresne 13,365]

What don't people get about replacement value?

In an IDP Zealots league, a guy sends on offer of the 4.09 for Danielle Hunter.

Of course I reject saying he's arguably a top 5 d-lineman.

He replies with "Very true....but he's still a DL. Not a lot of value there."

Me: But the odds of replacing his value with a fourth round pick are nearly zero.

Him: 1st DL in last year's rookie draft went 3.10, and Hunter wasn't even drafted in the 2015 rookie draft, so the odds are WAY better than zero.

 

I stopped there but, isn't it obvious that has nothing to do with it? D-linemen go late because of both position and difficulty predicting protection. That just means that when a guy's an actual producer that his value has appreciated. He basically wanted me to trade him a known asset for the chance at getting lucky. 

This is the reason I'm just about done with dynasty leagues. Trading is necessary but almost always ends up stupid.