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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (7 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
- Start date
ILUVBEER99
Footballguy
After Jacobs/harry/Montgomery/Sanders a random 2020 1st is a lot more valuable. Even if a team looks good things happen. I'd easily take 1.10 in 2020 over whoever is available at 1.05 this year. Anything better is pure gravy.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
I don't agree at all but you'll note I didn't suggest trading 2020 1st for a single pick this year. And this is a SF we are discussing, so Haskins ranks right about 1.03 here, and my suggestion was to offer it for Haskins+.
ffmail4me
Footballguy
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Snorkelson
Footballguy
I’m doing a dispersal right now and he went before Corey Davis, Allen Robinson, and rashad penny. I guess there are some people that really like his opportunity.
*also before pick 1.05
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Snorkelson
Footballguy
northern exposure
Footballguy
Price check on Darnold, Newton and Prescott in SuperFlex?
Zyphros
Footballguy
Darnold should command top10 QB prices, probably not top5 but high enough that it would require someone of note. My guess would be someone near the 30's-40's in startups. A top tiered rookie pick (there are none this year), or multiple rookie picks. Otherwise I think he's worth holding onto.
Newton scares me a bit more with his shoulder and the way he plays so I'm a bit lower on him. Wouldn't blame anyone for cashing out for what they can get, but his value is probably lower because of all that and doesn't fetch the high price he probably should. ADP wise I'd say someone in the 50's would possibly get me to sell him but again it might not be worth it. That's roughly a top5 rookie pick to me.
Prescott I like a lot but he's a QB2 in superflex and not a QB1. I'd pay someone in the 80's or later I think and I'd put him around early 2nd.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
DLF has superflex rankings and they have Darnold at 44, Newton at 21, and Prescott at 46.
joey
Footballguy
I don’t play superflex at all but how are starting QBs ranked so low below 32? Prescott is really worse that 14 backup QBs? I must be reading that wrong.
ETA: must be overall ranking I guess. Duh.
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Corey Davis is pretty overrated himself.SayWhat? said:
Zyphros
Footballguy
The only guys I can for sure rank ahead of Darnold are this list:
Pat Mahomes, Andrew Luck, Deshaun Watson, Baker Mayfield, Russell Wilson, and Carson Wentz.
Other possibles would include:
Aaron Rodgers, Jared Goff, Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, and then if you think their rushing is sustainable, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson
That's 6 for sure's ahead of him, 6 that are questionable, at least to me. There's a very real possibility that he settles in as a Stafford/Cousins/Dak kind of QB that sits in the middle of the road, but there's no point in selling him for that if you're the owner. Stafford had a few elite seasons, Cousins has some top10 finishes to his name as well. Darnold has age on his side and showed he belongs with god awful weapons last year. He should be viewed as a top10 QB in superflex.
This seems like something to discuss in the AC forum and not here. They are close enough in value that it could be a straight up swap trade
I prefer Evans to Adams myself but do see this as a "six of one, half dozen of the other" kind of situation.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
I don't disagree with your valuation, but wanted to chime in and say it's the perfect time to sell Darnold in a superflex because of the same reasons. I think the fact that QB are so hard to replace makes it very much apropos to swap him for a low QB1. Dak is exactly the type of QB you should sell in 1QB, and exactly the type of QB you should buy in Superflex. That is, because he is acquirable, gives reliable good to great production, and still has a long career ahead of him. Darnold is not guaranteed to be a long term NFL starter yet, and if you don't think his chance of being "perennial top 5" elite is high, i would move him for someone who can be depended on. The difference between Dak/Cousins/Stafford and Tannehill/Bortles is huge for your team's success. The only thing worse than not having 2 QB in Superflex is perennially blowing high draft picks on mediocre QB prospects.
Zow
Footballguy
I'd take Watkins over 1.5, or Penny. He's still only 26, and has the best QB, and situation of his career.
Why Evans beyond? He and Adams are roughly the same age, and Evans QB is unlikely to ever be better than Adams.
I prefer Adams either way.
Zyphros
Footballguy
I have them ranked back to back currently at QB9 and 10. Kyler gets the edge for me, but that might be a bold stance. I don't really do eval's of QB's so I defer to people who know what to look for and those people seem to be rather high on him. He's a better version of Lamar Jackson to me, in what seems to be a better offense with better weapons.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
I had Darnold as my only QB on one roster and jumped at the chance to take Kyler.
Zow
Footballguy
So here some value discussion on Darnold and Kyler. I had 1.2 in a 2qb rookie/FA draft. Jacobs went first so Kyler was obvious pick. After some back and forth the best offer I got was Darnold, Gesicki, and Lesean McCoy. Would up turning it down.
For comparison, was also offered:
1.3 and Marvin Jones
1.5 and 1.10
Kirk Cousins
Golladay and 1.5
For comparison, was also offered:
1.3 and Marvin Jones
1.5 and 1.10
Kirk Cousins
Golladay and 1.5
What are folks with rebuilding or non-contending teams doing with David Johnson? I just traded him away in a TE premium for OJ Howard (as part of a larger deal) on a team that I need to rebuild. I actually expect him to do well this season, mainly because I expect him to be involved in the passing game again. But he'll be 28 before the regular season ends and it feels like this year is a good chance to get some exit value.
skinfanjon
Footballguy
Personally I have Kyler >>> over Darnold. They are going to sling it a lot. He's super accurate, has intriguing weapons and running game support, and big rushing potential. Darnold seems super meh to me.
I find the love for Darnold perplexing. I get that he was a hyped prospect and draft high but he really didn't show much in his rookie season, in fantasy or reality. He wasn't even a QB2 last year. I guess plenty of people disagree with that because everyone seems to be back on the "Darnold is great" train (after a few jumped off his last year of college). I view his ceiling as somewhere on the Cousins/Dalton spectrum and I'm not even sure he'll get to that level.
From a fantasy perspective I just don't see why you'd bother with him, given that the league is now flooded with good starting QB options. Maybe he takes a leap this year, but I don't see any reason to have faith in that unless you thought he was a can't miss prospect to begin with (and I certainly didn't). I just don't see a scenario where he's a consistent QB1 for your fantasy team over the next few years.
As for Kyler vs Darnold, I don't even think that's a conversation.
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skinfanjon
Footballguy
Well said and I couldn't agree more. Even in dynasty I'd much rather have a boring old vet like Rivers, Ben, or Brees. I'd even take Garappolo over him.
Dalton ceiling sounds about right to me. Cousins as a bright side.
EBF
Footballguy
I don't plan to add any leagues in the coming years, but here are some startup values I like based on these free dynasty rankings. I'd list more rookies in general, but this site seems extremely conservative on prospects, to the point where their rankings of people like Jacobs and Sanders don't reflect the market reality.
RB31 Kenyan Drake - Top 15 PPR RB finish last year and even though he's not built to be the guy and his own coaches don't seem to trust him, he's the best offensive weapon on the Dolphins and a guy with standout big play skills and versatility. If you can get him at RB3 prices, you've done very well.
RB72 Alexander Mattison - Dalvin Cook is arguably one of the most overrated RBs in dynasty right now, and while I do think he has a chance to thrive, Mattison looms as a potential challenger if Cook isn't able to improve in his second year back from injury. Mattison doesn't project to be a special back, but is a 220+ pounder with three down ability. Decent upside at a very low entry price.
WR17 DJ Moore - It's hard to argue that he should be significantly higher than this since the WR depth is quite good and Moore's owners are likely to demand a steep price, but he flashed a high ceiling last year and this might be the last season when he's not untouchable. I wouldn't pay WR1 value for him because there's little upside at that cost, but if you can get him as your WR2 then I think he makes a lot of sense.
WR23 Allen Robinson - In the last calendar year he went from being overrated to underrated. His numbers really weren't that awful in 2018 despite a new team, a green QB, and limited opportunities. He's the best receiver on the Bears and if they dial up a few more passes next season then it's not tough to envision him as a 1000+ yard guy again. Don't put yourself in a position to depend on him because he's totally unreliable, but at a WR3 cost there's a solid risk/reward value.
WR36 Tyreek Hill - He's an idiot and a scumbag, but we know what he can do on the football field. If you don't have any ethical qualms about rooting for him then you might as well toss out some lowball offers because his PPG ceiling is something that's very rare and difficult to find.
WR49 Deebo Samuel - Probably the best WR on the Niners out of the box. He isn't an ELITE prospect, but he's pretty good and his play style means they can get the ball to him in a variety of ways. I've been taking him in a lot of rookie drafts and he's a player who would also be a sneaky option in best ball redraft leagues.
WR76 John Ross - I've always had my doubts about him and so far he looks like a bust, but this is just so cheap for a young player with a high ceiling who may yet figure it out. The risk at a WR76 value is so low that you've essentially lost nothing if he flops.
TE17 Mark Andrews & TE24 Hayden Hurst - I own both he and Andrews in numerous leagues and like both of them at their current ADP level. Despite Andrews having the better rookie year, I think Hurst is the better athlete. He was one of my favorite players in last year's draft and has a top 10 TE ceiling.
TE34 Tyler Eifert - He's never healthy, but the ceiling of a 100% Eifert is a top 3-4 receiving TE in the league, and that's well worth a shot.
2019 ROOKIE TE class - I like quite a few of them and most of them present solid value in drafts, especially the day 2 guys. When other people are throwing darts at JAG level rookie RBs and WRs, I'd consider stashing one or two of these guys and hoping that you hit a Cooley/Kelce/Ertz. Their talent level relative to their ADP represents a good value, even factoring in that TE is a devalued position is most leagues.
Mildly intrigued by: Rashaad Penny, Jaylen Samuels, Robert Foster, Michael Gallup, Quincy Enunwa, and Daniel Jones simply because he's getting dissed so hard on ADP for a top 10 overall pick
RB31 Kenyan Drake - Top 15 PPR RB finish last year and even though he's not built to be the guy and his own coaches don't seem to trust him, he's the best offensive weapon on the Dolphins and a guy with standout big play skills and versatility. If you can get him at RB3 prices, you've done very well.
RB72 Alexander Mattison - Dalvin Cook is arguably one of the most overrated RBs in dynasty right now, and while I do think he has a chance to thrive, Mattison looms as a potential challenger if Cook isn't able to improve in his second year back from injury. Mattison doesn't project to be a special back, but is a 220+ pounder with three down ability. Decent upside at a very low entry price.
WR17 DJ Moore - It's hard to argue that he should be significantly higher than this since the WR depth is quite good and Moore's owners are likely to demand a steep price, but he flashed a high ceiling last year and this might be the last season when he's not untouchable. I wouldn't pay WR1 value for him because there's little upside at that cost, but if you can get him as your WR2 then I think he makes a lot of sense.
WR23 Allen Robinson - In the last calendar year he went from being overrated to underrated. His numbers really weren't that awful in 2018 despite a new team, a green QB, and limited opportunities. He's the best receiver on the Bears and if they dial up a few more passes next season then it's not tough to envision him as a 1000+ yard guy again. Don't put yourself in a position to depend on him because he's totally unreliable, but at a WR3 cost there's a solid risk/reward value.
WR36 Tyreek Hill - He's an idiot and a scumbag, but we know what he can do on the football field. If you don't have any ethical qualms about rooting for him then you might as well toss out some lowball offers because his PPG ceiling is something that's very rare and difficult to find.
WR49 Deebo Samuel - Probably the best WR on the Niners out of the box. He isn't an ELITE prospect, but he's pretty good and his play style means they can get the ball to him in a variety of ways. I've been taking him in a lot of rookie drafts and he's a player who would also be a sneaky option in best ball redraft leagues.
WR76 John Ross - I've always had my doubts about him and so far he looks like a bust, but this is just so cheap for a young player with a high ceiling who may yet figure it out. The risk at a WR76 value is so low that you've essentially lost nothing if he flops.
TE17 Mark Andrews & TE24 Hayden Hurst - I own both he and Andrews in numerous leagues and like both of them at their current ADP level. Despite Andrews having the better rookie year, I think Hurst is the better athlete. He was one of my favorite players in last year's draft and has a top 10 TE ceiling.
TE34 Tyler Eifert - He's never healthy, but the ceiling of a 100% Eifert is a top 3-4 receiving TE in the league, and that's well worth a shot.
2019 ROOKIE TE class - I like quite a few of them and most of them present solid value in drafts, especially the day 2 guys. When other people are throwing darts at JAG level rookie RBs and WRs, I'd consider stashing one or two of these guys and hoping that you hit a Cooley/Kelce/Ertz. Their talent level relative to their ADP represents a good value, even factoring in that TE is a devalued position is most leagues.
Mildly intrigued by: Rashaad Penny, Jaylen Samuels, Robert Foster, Michael Gallup, Quincy Enunwa, and Daniel Jones simply because he's getting dissed so hard on ADP for a top 10 overall pick
Zyphros
Footballguy
Who specifically do you like out of that group? They all basically went to good/great landing spots. I listed them in order of their draft pedigree.
Irv Smith - Vikings
Drew Sample - Bengals (I think most of us realize he's a blocker only though so I don't expect someone to be high on him, I'm even more interested to learn why if he is the guy you're referring to though)
Josh Oliver - Jaguars
Jace Sternberger - Packers
Kahale Warring - Texans
Dawson Knox - Bills
I for one am a fan of Warring and Knox and their play, plus you can get them super cheap. Sternberger and Irv Smith cost more. Then that leaves Oliver who some people are big fans of as well. All these spots have giant'ish holes at TE and most of them are athletic freaks in some fashion.
EBF
Footballguy
I'm not necessarily a huge fan of the two first round guys at their ADP, but you can wait to the 3rd-4th round of rookie drafts and Knox/Oliver/Warring will usually be there. I consider all three good value at market price, but went with Warring when given a choice between all three. Oliver is considered the most limited blocker of the bunch, which could limit his field time because he's not Jordan Reed/Aaron Hernandez good as a receiver. Knox is a very good athlete, but wasn't heavily utilized as a receiver in college, so there's a little more mystery around what he can do.
Sample looks like a blocker and while I like Smith, I don't see a big gap between him to justify the ADP difference, as he often goes a full round above Warring/Knox/Oliver.
Dalvin has a career average of 4.7 YPC. Not sure how that is overrated or he needs to improve, he just needs to stay healthy. As such I find Mattison to be one of the most overrated players in dynasty drafts and frankly surprised this many people are spending late seconds on Dalvin's handcuff.
EBF
Footballguy
He was brutal in a lot of games last year, has had durability issues in the NFL, and is small with marginal power. I'm actually a Cook owner in one dynasty league, but it's worth considering why the Vikings felt compelled to spend one of their top 3 draft picks on a RB. Given that Mattison is more of a "thunder" type to Cook's lightning, there's a hint that maybe they don't see Cook as a 300 touch back or a complete foundational RB.
Sometimes teams just go with BPA on their board, so I'm not necessarily saying Mattison is a threat to Cook, but he might be. It's not like we are talking about Zeke or Bell here with multiple elite seasons to his credit. We still don't necessarily know what Cook is in the NFL because he hasn't put together an impressive complete season, let alone multiple elite seasons. His job security may not be what people think it is.
Mattison's ADP is around the ~30 range in rookie drafts IIRC and I've gotten him mid 3rd in multiple leagues, so it's a bit deceptive to suggest that a 2nd round pick is the going rate. It's not very often that you can get a day two RB in the mid 3rd of rookie drafts, so I'll stand by what I said: Good value, even if the upside and talent aren't necessarily awe-inspiring. Value-per-cost is what should drive most draft/trade decisions and Mattison is a cheap dart throw.
They're dynasty assets heading in opposite directions in my opinion, especially in TE premium. As I said I expect DJ to be good this year but his rushing numbers have regressed (could be due to a bad o line but he still has that bad line), 2016 was his last good season, and he's going to be 28 in December. Howard was PFF's second highest graded TE last season (including a receiving grade of 90 -- while we're talking hands), and number 1 on a per-touch basis. I think he finds a way to produce despite the 36 other receivers who TB will target.
He was trying to come back from an ACL while dealing with a hamstring injury running behind a porous OL and still put it together.
They basically fired the OC because he would not give him more carries. I feel good and secure about his role.
I feel like people are overvaluing Mattisons draft capital. It's almost like department store pricing, he was one pick from a 4th and it was a pick they got from trading down.
Speaking of Elliot the Cowboys used their third pick in the draft on a RB as well. Round 4 but not that much later then Mattison. Cook was a lot better his first 15 games then Bell was in his if you want to bring him up.
Cook's only fault is he can't stay healthy so they used the last pick of the third round, after trading down, on his backup because they had next to nothing after Cook.
I take issue with the bit deceptive comment. Mattison has gone round two of plenty of my drafts and so it's only natural for me to comment that if that is the case, which I keep seeing, he is one of the more overrrated players in this draft. That's not deceptive, just stating an actual fact that I'm surprised I keep seeing people do this.
Appreciate your posts and your stance, but think you are very wrong on this one.
EBF
Footballguy
I mean, you are squabbling about a guy who is rated as the dynasty RB76 and has a 12 team rookie draft ADP of 3.05 per DLF. It's hard to be "very wrong" when the entry cost is almost zero. Even if you buy that Cook is a legit franchise back, if Mattison is roughly a top 20 backup in the NFL then he should be a top 50 dynasty RB.
Much ado about nothing.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Jello_Biafra
Footballguy
The 10 other guys, of course.barackdhouse said:
Snorkelson
Footballguy
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I wouldn't sell him for less than a high 1st, and even then only if I had a legitimate TE1 in front of him. He has gotten better almost every year, is still young, and in a GREAT spot. 2018 may have been his high water mark, but in PPR his finish would have been good for WR20. I would never let him go for a 2nd. I think his value ought to be much higher. I know nobody is paying an early 1st, but I wouldn't sell for less than that. What I would be more inclined to do is package him with something else and really try to pump up his value. But so many people are down on him for some reason. I honestly don't get it. Jack Doyle is not in his way.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
False Narrative - that Doyle will block Ebron
2018 results
Ebron PPR with Doyle playing : 17.7 PPG (12.1 for Doyle)
Ebron PPR w/o Doyle playing : 13.6 PPG
With both playing, Ebron put up
15.1
11.6
12.7
27.9
21.5
With Ebron by himself, he put up:
8.3
15.0
31.5
17.0
6.1
18.1
16.5
1.8
5.8
16.0
Not sure we can say a lot about the difference here. Ebron actually did better with Doyle *in* the lineup, but had plenty of good games and a few clunkers in games without Doyle. I think the take home message is that Doyle sucks and that Ebron should be considered a main target in an Andrew Luck offense for the next several years.
For good measure, Doyle had:
13
4
22
8.1
10.3
13.6
2018 results
Ebron PPR with Doyle playing : 17.7 PPG (12.1 for Doyle)
Ebron PPR w/o Doyle playing : 13.6 PPG
With both playing, Ebron put up
15.1
11.6
12.7
27.9
21.5
With Ebron by himself, he put up:
8.3
15.0
31.5
17.0
6.1
18.1
16.5
1.8
5.8
16.0
Not sure we can say a lot about the difference here. Ebron actually did better with Doyle *in* the lineup, but had plenty of good games and a few clunkers in games without Doyle. I think the take home message is that Doyle sucks and that Ebron should be considered a main target in an Andrew Luck offense for the next several years.
For good measure, Doyle had:
13
4
22
8.1
10.3
13.6
