Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Chubb. Doubtful Hunt is there beyond this year.
And I just can't understand comparing Ruggs to DHB.
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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
- Start date
And I just can't understand comparing Ruggs to DHB.
Country Boy
Footballguy
(1) Ran a 4.30 40 (2) Drafted #7 overall, (3) By the RaidersChubb. Doubtful Hunt is there beyond this year.
And I just can't understand comparing Ruggs to DHB.
Country Boy
Footballguy
My comment about Ruggs and DHB was more hyperbole than anything. I do have some doubt that he is well rounded enough to be elite so like I stated I will let someone else pull the trigger on him. Now, I may spend the next few months talking him up to the other league GMs!
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
was at my market - brain fart.
yeah - dudes like, “I wouldn’t trade one of my top 5 WRs”
so...probably gonna hold.
He does have 1.10 but I doubt I get replacement value there. Better to hold for a year & see if Carr’s stock improves - it’s a gamble.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
I wouldn't trade him, the dude is a playoff winner, and like tangfoot said, people just don't pay for QBs, so Id keep him
az_prof
Footballguy
I would offer the 1.03 for him. I don't value the other RBs as much as Taylor and CEH. I value Mahones more than all the WRs. In terms of players I have, I wouldn't give Barkley or Dalvin Cook or Cooper, but I would offer Derrick Henry or Tyler Lockett.
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Personally, I have it
CEH
small gap
Taylor/Dobbins
Huge Gap
Everybody else through about pick 18
small gap
Leftovers
Put Akers and Swift at the front of that 3rd Tier since the RBs after them are a big step down. The WRs are very deep and I don’t put the earlier drafted guys that much far ahead of guys you can get in the mid-2nd rookie round. The 1st rounders this year aren’t appreciably better chances of hitting than many other mid-late NFL 1st rounders that have busted at about a 60% clip the last 10 years. IMO, if sitting at 6 or 7, get someone to pay extra for Lamb or Jeudy and move down, that’s what I did in one league getting Pittman at 13 and an extra 1st next year.
RC94
Footballguy
I would definitely hold for that price. In a superflex or start 2QB league, I would have to get a player who will regularly start for me at another position if I'm going to trade a NFL starting QB without getting one in return. Maybe other teams will be interested if you want to shop him around now because this guy may have inquired about him, but he isn't really interested. He has to know that he isn't offering close to market value and is just trying to steal him away.
was at my market - brain fart.
yeah - dudes like, “I wouldn’t trade one of my top 5 WRs”
so...probably gonna hold.
He does have 1.10 but I doubt I get replacement value there. Better to hold for a year & see if Carr’s stock improves - it’s a gamble.
One of the reasons why QB is so important in superflex is because of the scarcity of decent NFL starters. Once there's some injuries you will be able to get market value for him if you still want to shop him. Personally, I really prefer to keep at least 3 NFL starting QBs on my roster in my superflex league so I would probably just keep him unless I get an offer that clearly improves my starting lineup without getting older. With regards to Carr specifically, I think he improves this year anyway. He's a better QB than many people give him credit for, especially considering his supporting cast. Now he has improved weapons around him so I do expect an improvement to what has already been a solid and underrated player.
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robb
Footballguy
Owner wants to get rid of Kirk and has offered me the following:
I get: Kirk, WR Arizona (I have Moore& Sutton)
I give up: 2021 first round (probably middle 1st)
Good deal?? Or, what if I offered a 2021 2nd and a mid-round pick this year?
(I am new to Dynasty and future year draft picks "values" are difficult to determine by me!)
I get: Kirk, WR Arizona (I have Moore& Sutton)
I give up: 2021 first round (probably middle 1st)
Good deal?? Or, what if I offered a 2021 2nd and a mid-round pick this year?
(I am new to Dynasty and future year draft picks "values" are difficult to determine by me!)
I continue to be dumbfounded at the value people are assigning to Kirk after his first two years in the league. So I guess to answer your question, 0% chance I pay a future 1st for Kirk. Future 2nd and change seems far more reasonable.
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King of the Jungle
Footballguy
az_prof
Footballguy
Agree--do not deal a mid-first for Kirk. He is at best second fiddle there now. I would rather get one of the top rookie WRs who have more upside.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
I'm quite thrilled to see Russel Wilson has fallen into the old-so-cheap category. I've made a killing grabbing up Rivers/Ben/Brees/Rodgers cheap for the last few years and was wondering what my tactic was going to become once these guys age out as Matt Ryan can't prop that category up himself forever
robb
Footballguy
So, I have 1.04 which I plan to take a RB.
I also have 1.07 which I am thinking of taking a second RB........or would you consider trading this down and getting extra picks since the RBs at this point won't be worth much??
robb
Footballguy
Thanks to all the feedback, I did NOT make this trade! This is why this Forum is so valuable.
Thanks everyone.
How does one value 2021 picks?
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
If you can get Akers or Swift at 7, I'd do that. Otherwise I wouldn't reach for Dillon, Vaughn, or Moss there.
Look at your league rosters.
Do you realistically expect to compete for the championship? If so, value your future 1st near the end of the round.
Do you realistically expect to make the playoffs? If so, value your first right around the cutoff for the worst playoff team (typically this is pick 7 in a 12-team league)
Do you think you're in a complete rebuild? Value your pick from 1.01-1.03 and don't let anyone convince you otherwise.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Just off the top of my head I see a preliminary value 8 deep. Similar to 2020, with Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields being had late 1st early 2nd in start 1 QB dynasty drafts.....Ja'Marr Chase, Travis Etienne, Chubba Hubbard, Rashod Bateman, Jaylen Waddle, Justyn Ross, Rondale Moore, and Najee Harris. I don't think the WRs will have as much depth as 2020 for 2nd round value.
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King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Everyone values future picks differently. Every time I have personally traded a future pick away I seem disappointed by the time the draft rolls around for that year. So from that perspective I rarely trade future 1st round picks away unless I have multiple. I usually am working on obtaining future picks as drafting is one of the more enjoyable parts of dynasty for me.
2021 specifically looks like a loaded TE class, 6 WR's went in round one of Dane Bruglers mock(his early 2020 mock he did after 2019 draft was pretty good so I'm putting some stock in this) so WR should be every bit as top heavy as this year. As for RB's no one had CEH on their radar this time last year so you never know who emerges but right now the top RB's all look like a group that was eligible to come out this year but elected to stay-not a great sign to me for the RB class.
In a more general sense I tend to value of a random future #1's around value of a 6th round startup. This opinion is not universally shared and I believe the value should be altered based on your perceived ranking of the next years class and while it's hard to know this sometimes in a startup were that pick is projected to land. I'll also add I tend to look at this from angle of FFPC league.
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Nothing is universal but in my experience doing quite a few startups over the last few years this is about as close to a consensus as you can get. It's to the point where in most startups since startup trade calculators often don't include future 1sts people are actually plugging in the value of pick 6.06 into the calculator as a placeholder for the future 1st in the calculation.
Flying Elvis
Footballguy
Definitely not an exact science, as others have mentioned.
A great start. 6th round seems fair as a blanket, but you have to realize that a guy like CEH this year would likely never make it to the 6th round even in a startup. When possible, check ADP for startup drafts and look for the rookies. There are often charts kicked out on various sites that can give you some perspective, as well. Back in Feb I cam across one from a CBS writer that seemed like a decent starting point. https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/news/fantasy-football-dynasty-trade-chart-values-for-the-top-150-players-2020-rookie-draft-picks/
I had no idea that was the case but I've not done startups in a few years, last FFPC startup I did was back in 2015.
In that draft I had traded away a late 5th round startup pick for a teams 2016 first and second. I got ripped by a few people for making a horrible trade.
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
robb
Footballguy
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Depends on the owner and who is on the clock. Usually that is the type of trade I love to do though. If I can turn a 2nd into a future 1st, I do that 99% of the time.
Depends on who is available. Mims and Pittman were available at that pick in a couple of my drafts and I would consider them worth a late 2021 1st. I'd have to feel pretty confident its fairly late, like 8-12 range, but if I have roster space and want a WR, I'd do it.
EBF
Footballguy
I think you're printing money in the long run if you can trade a 2nd for a future 1st.
There used to be an argument in the FF community that pick in X round this year is worth a pick in X-1 round next year, but nobody makes that argument anymore because it's terrible long-term strategy to give away the higher pick. The thing about trading any 2nd for any 1st is that all it usually takes is a little bit of bad luck for that 1st to end up in the top 3, then you're the guy who gave up Christian McCaffrey or Joe Mixon for Leonte Carroo.
There used to be an argument in the FF community that pick in X round this year is worth a pick in X-1 round next year, but nobody makes that argument anymore because it's terrible long-term strategy to give away the higher pick. The thing about trading any 2nd for any 1st is that all it usually takes is a little bit of bad luck for that 1st to end up in the top 3, then you're the guy who gave up Christian McCaffrey or Joe Mixon for Leonte Carroo.
EBF
Footballguy
No, that's exactly what I meant.
There are usually some decent prospects on the board in the 2nd round of rookie drafts and inevitably some guys picked in that range will pan out, but if they were bulletproof elite prospects then they wouldn't still be on the board. The 2nd round rookie pick level of prospect is basically dime-a-dozen. If you want a Shenault or a Claypool, you can go out and get him at any time. On the other hand, even though they don't always pan out, the value of the elite RB/WR prospects cannot be overstated and anything you do that takes you out of range to land those Fitz/Andre/Calvin/Crabtree/Green/Julio/Blackmon type of prospects is a massive flub in dynasty.
I'm very reluctant to give up my future 1st in dynasty, even when my roster looks like a playoff team. That's how you miss out on Zeke/Saquon/Luck/etc, and once those guys are taken, they will usually be locked away on another owner's roster for years.
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Depends what is left but also depends a lot on who much you value the chance to draft an upper echelon RB.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
barackdhouse
Footballguy
barackdhouse
Footballguy
No no. You wouldn't be able to get Boyd. But you would be getting similar production from player X, Y or Z on the wire or thru trade.
In my experience playing mostly FFPC where rosters are more shallow than most.
I like Boyd and I've won with him in my lineup. But I absolutely think we've seen his ceiling and it has value. But there are at least 7 rookie WRs I would rather roll the dice with right now.
foxco
Footballguy
If he won't trade any WR then he's not being serious about an offer or he doesn't understand the value of QBs in SF. I usually back away politely from these types as it's almost always a waste of time.
was at my market - brain fart.
yeah - dudes like, “I wouldn’t trade one of my top 5 WRs”
so...probably gonna hold.
He does have 1.10 but I doubt I get replacement value there. Better to hold for a year & see if Carr’s stock improves - it’s a gamble.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I typically find and play at least two emerging WRs midseason every year. I got Boyd that way FFS. I got Hill that way. Woods. I could dig but I mean guys get dropped.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
To each their own but I'll say again, this notion that Boyd has no upside is bewildering to me.
Right off the bat, Joe Burrow's likely #1 target going forward having no upside baffles me. Beyond that, the guy just put up 90-1065-5 in an abysmally awful offense, and now that offense looks like it's headed in the opposite direction.
Beyond that, I see no reason why we should assume that a guy entering his age 25 season has already had his best season. Entering his age 25 season Antonio Brown's best year was 69-1108-2. Robert Woods was 65-699-5. Davante Adams was 75-995-12. Amari Cooper was 83-1153-5. Cooper Kupp 62-869-5. Wes Welker, Julian Edelman, Adam Thielen, etc etc.
Would it be THAT shocking if 2 years from now the guy that just put up the best college football season of all-time (that made Trevor Lawrence look like a day 3 chump) is throwing for 4500-5000 yards per season, 1400-1500 of which is going to Boyd? It certainly wouldn't be more surprising to me than Brandon Aiyuk or Denzel Mims putting up those kind of numbers, and that's not to mention the likelihood of those guys being Dante Pettis and Quincy Enunway by then.
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barackdhouse
Footballguy
You could absolutely be right but I'm not convinced he is going to be one of those guys. I'm not convinced he *isn't* either. But if I'm forced to avoid being neutral, then I take the late 1st. I just don't see Boyd as keystone piece of my roster but I might find one. I really don't think you're off base or anything. For me it's a marginal call and if someone added the right piece to it I probably take Boyd over that late 1st.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Perriman, Slayton, Unicorn (not realized yet but did pick off waivers), Greg Ward even helped me win a title last year. Bigger rosters and best ball but still.
Boone22
Footballguy
I think the difference here is in roster size. You mentioned shallow rosters... in those leagues I absolutely agree with you but if you’re in a league like I am, 12 teams, 24 deep, you can pick up waiver guys to help you limp along but your extremely lucky if you get a 1K WR off waivers or for a 3rd round rookie pick.
Country Boy
Footballguy
If the top 5 RBs are gone then don't reach for a RB. If your roster needs 2 RBs, then trade back and take a RB late 1st or early 2nd.
The only question I have is would your rather have Akers over whichever is there between Jeudy and Lamb? In a PPR I say no.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Boyd wasn't a 900 yard WR last year. He also wasn't a typical 1045 yard WR either, with his 90 receptions plus an inexplicable shutout vs. the Raiders. Those 90 points up fast in PPR. Guys like Emmanuel Sanders, Jamison Crower, and Randall Cobb were in that range during trading season though and I'd be shocked if some pretender weren't begging you to take them for a 3rd.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
You should, and the above is exactly why. If a guy is in love with Pittman he doesn't feel like he's trading for 2.04 he feels like he's trading for the 1.10. I have done dozens of these deals and a week ago I traded 2.08 in a 16 man league for a 2021 1st - IDP with 6 IDP off the board so the equivalent of what, 18 overall? I'm not well positioned with early 2's in my next draft but I got one more I should be able to add at last two 2021 1sts to either via this or trading mid 1sts for 2nd + future 1.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
That's fair. To be clear I'm not really talking about getting a 1k guy. I'm talking about getting someone that can do the same thing *that* week.
But yes the roster size thing is crucial. Perriman, Slayton and Ward were all waiver pickups in my 25 man league last year (bestball makes a difference too) and they all contributed about that 1k rate on a PPG basis.
Anyway I've probably said enough on this.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
On the early 2nd for future 1st discussion, one of my favorite things to do the last few years has been moving early 2nd + sweetener player for a future 1st. Not negotiating that in or anything, just including the sweetener right away on the initial offer.
I find that if you try it without the player first with the idea of adding the player later, they've usually talked themselves out of the idea entirely by the time they decide to decline the first offer in this scenario. So I really want them to take that first offer and with so many considering an early 2nd to be near the value of a future 1st right off the bat the sweetener is often enough to get them to feel like they are winning on value.
For instance a few years back after Jimmy G was moved to SF and had some hype (1qb league) I moved 2.04 + Jimmy G for a future 1st. I also moved 2.01 + some player I can't even remember at this point for a future 1st in that same league. Those picks ended up being 1.01 and 1.03 the next year (somewhat surprisingly) and really set my franchise up in that league.
I find that if you try it without the player first with the idea of adding the player later, they've usually talked themselves out of the idea entirely by the time they decide to decline the first offer in this scenario. So I really want them to take that first offer and with so many considering an early 2nd to be near the value of a future 1st right off the bat the sweetener is often enough to get them to feel like they are winning on value.
For instance a few years back after Jimmy G was moved to SF and had some hype (1qb league) I moved 2.04 + Jimmy G for a future 1st. I also moved 2.01 + some player I can't even remember at this point for a future 1st in that same league. Those picks ended up being 1.01 and 1.03 the next year (somewhat surprisingly) and really set my franchise up in that league.
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Dez
Footballguy
Someone insulted themselves in 1 of my FFPC this year then he traded his future 1st straight up for a 2.03 (took Pittman)Concept Coop said:
In another it was less of an insult he traded his future 1st for 2.01 (Then took Mims who I have seen fall as low as like 2.09) so maybe he double insulted himself.
Last year I had a chance to trade the guy who I just took at 1.12 for a future 1st and 2nd of a 2018 highly ranked playoff team but couldn't pull the trigger because JJAW was so sweet in the preseason.......oops also that guy's picks turned into 1.02 and 2.02 after he sold his team to a new owner.
Of course there are times when in 2017 you had a shot to get Kamara or Hunt in the 2nd round and would have hated dealing those guys for a future 1st. Hunt not so much now but at the time you kick yourself. In 1 of my leagues I got Hunt at 2.05.
Most times agree you rather have the future 1 but sometimes your kicking yourself when you pass up that 2nd round player who becomes a stud. I mean those 1st round picks can become busts plenty.
