What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (11 Viewers)

Just Win Baby said:
I had no idea there was such support for Minshew's dynasty prospects, so I took a look at some rankings:

FBG has him as consensus dynasty QB #31, with a high ranking of #27 out of 3 rankings.
DynastyPros has him as consensus dynasty QB #26, with a high ranking of #21 out of 20 rankings.

FBG has him as consensus redraft QB #24, with a high ranking of #15 out of 15 rankings.
DynastyPros has him as consensus redraft QB #23, with a high ranking of #12 out of 63 rankings.

Not really seeing him as a top 15 QB either short term or long term, but I have certainly been wrong before.

I will say that pro-rating his numbers and comparing him to Murray's rookie numbers doesn't move the needle on convincing me. YMMV.
Click to expand...
You should go check out some of his tape too. He's obviously not a lock but he certainly flashed. All those rankings mean nothing. It's an echo chamber basing Minshews ranking on his draft pedigree. With what he showed early in the season he'd be a day 2 pick or even a surprise day 1 pick in a redraft of last years rookies. 

 
JohnnyU said:
I wouldn’t be putting Swift > Jeudy or Lamb and probably not Akers either.
Click to expand...
We can agree to disagree on that. I see the 2021 class and see so few RBs I like and tons of WRs. To me this is the year to get an RB.

And I generally prefer drafting RBs and trading for WRs.

For Lamb in particular: as a mostly Big 10 and Big 12 watcher he and JT are the prospects I have watched most and there is something that really worries me about him

Has the highest ceiling in this class (Hopkins like) but: while I give him the benefit of the doubt because he produced there is a LOT about him that worries me. Most of his getting open is finding the soft spot in zones while his plays against press/man are bullying Big 12 corners without separation but with physicality he might not have the frame to sustain against NFL defenders,

He has a scarily low floor and high bust potential IMO

EDIT: To be honest I think I'd take Akers over Lamb/Jeudy as well for similar reasons as Swift (positional scarcity, 2021 class, etc)

 
Last edited by a moderator:
KChusker said:
We can agree to disagree on that. I see the 2021 class and see so few RBs I like and tons of WRs. To me this is the year to get an RB.

And I generally prefer drafting RBs and trading for WRs.

For Lamb in particular: as a mostly Big 10 and Big 12 watcher he and JT are the prospects I have watched most and there is something that really worries me about him

Has the highest ceiling in this class (Hopkins like) but: while I give him the benefit of the doubt because he produced there is a LOT about him that worries me. Most of his getting open is finding the soft spot in zones while his plays against press/man are bullying Big 12 corners without separation but with physicality he might not have the frame to sustain against NFL defenders,

He has a scarily low floor and high bust potential IMO
Click to expand...
Yep, Swift has high bust potential 

 
Dr. Octopus said:
He shouldn't play football then. It's a tough sport.
Click to expand...
You might be right.  On top of the groin issues he had before the 2018 season, Swift dealt with foot and ankle injuries two seasons ago and a shoulder problem that severely limited him to end 2019.

 
JohnnyU said:
You might be right.  On top of the groin issues he had before the 2018 season, Swift dealt with foot and ankle injuries two seasons ago and a shoulder problem that severely limited him to end 2019.
Click to expand...
Seems pretty normal for a football player. A bunch of minor nicks.

 
Just Win Baby said:
I will say that pro-rating his numbers and comparing him to Murray's rookie numbers doesn't move the needle on convincing me. YMMV.
Click to expand...
Cheap shot here. We are talking about 14 games to 16 games here. It's not like we are pro-rating out a 3 game stretch or something. And he was good enough to send a $50 million qb packing withiut a fair shake at great expense to the team. 

He was more efficient than kyler in every category in similar volume. 

Minshew and Daniel Jones may be the most underrated 2nd year qbs ever given what each did as rookies. Meanwhile guys like Baker and Kyler became untouchable headed into their 2nd year on similar or slightly worse qb play. 

 
KChusker said:
We can agree to disagree on that. I see the 2021 class and see so few RBs I like and tons of WRs. To me this is the year to get an RB.
Click to expand...
No love for Chubba Hubbard or Travis Etienne?

Before it became known that Etuenne would not declare for the 2020 he was being considered the top RB of the class by many. If he is selected before pick 31 in the 2021 draft it will back that up as well. While I do like the 2020 RB a lot draft position tells us that they valued the 2020 RB more similarly to 2013 and 2014 drafts, where there were no RB selected in the 1st round.

I totally don't get it with Taylor who I think is better than Fournette who was a top 5 pick.

Its an interesting angle though that we should explore some more. It is possible that the talent at WR caused the RB to drop down some in 2014 and 2020.

And I generally prefer drafting RBs and trading for WRs.
Click to expand...
A lot of people have success with this strategy.

However the careers of WR are longer than RB. So if you stockpile WR then you only have to wait for a guy like you to need a WR and then you get the RB you needed and you still have a lot of WR left.

Every team needs to replenish RB every year because they are so fungable.

For Lamb in particular: as a mostly Big 10 and Big 12 watcher he and JT are the prospects I have watched most and there is something that really worries me about him

Has the highest ceiling in this class (Hopkins like) but: while I give him the benefit of the doubt because he produced there is a LOT about him that worries me. Most of his getting open is finding the soft spot in zones while his plays against press/man are bullying Big 12 corners without separation but with physicality he might not have the frame to sustain against NFL defenders,

He has a scarily low floor and high bust potential IMO

EDIT: To be honest I think I'd take Akers over Lamb/Jeudy as well for similar reasons as Swift (positional scarcity, 2021 class, etc)
Click to expand...
I think eventually we will find something to agree on. It definitely isnt Lamb either though!!

 
Biabreakable said:
No love for Chubba Hubbard or Travis Etienne?

Before it became known that Etuenne would not declare for the 2020 he was being considered the top RB of the class by many. If he is selected before pick 31 in the 2021 draft it will back that up as well. While I do like the 2020 RB a lot draft position tells us that they valued the 2020 RB more similarly to 2013 and 2014 drafts, where there were no RB selected in the 1st round.

I totally don't get it with Taylor who I think is better than Fournette who was a top 5 pick.

Its an interesting angle though that we should explore some more. It is possible that the talent at WR caused the RB to drop down some in 2014 and 2020.

A lot of people have success with this strategy.

However the careers of WR are longer than RB. So if you stockpile WR then you only have to wait for a guy like you to need a WR and then you get the RB you needed and you still have a lot of WR left.

Every team needs to replenish RB every year because they are so fungable.

I think eventually we will find something to agree on. It definitely isnt Lamb either though!!
Click to expand...
I like Etienne. Don't love him though.

I have him at "like" only because he improved his pass catching last year.

I still don't love the vision and think he is very linear as a runner. His pass catching improvements were promising (though he still is prone to drops) but his pass pro is still a big question mark. That's the case for every RB prospect coming out besides Zeke and to some extent Barkley, but Etienne is a bit further behind the curve than most at this point.

I had him as RB4 pre draft behind JT, Dobbins and Swift (CEH would have gone ahead of him too if I knew he was going to KC), but it's understandable why many had him at 1.

No one has the same home run potential every time they touch the ball and he is 100% going to shred the combine, but linear runners (think Ronald Jones) with vision issues and questions on effectiveness in the passing game who ran through wide gaps (which is what most of his tape is) cleared by a Clemson team that is so far above the rest of the ACC are a bit of a red flag to me. My last issue is that he didn't come out last year. It might seem minor and I'm sure he would have been a 2nd round pick this past year but a senior RB<a junior declared all else being equal

To be clear he is still my 2021 RB1 but even weighing RBs over WRs I would put him 4-5 overall behind guys I view as stud WRs: JaMarr Chase, Rondale Moore, Rashod Bateman, Justyn Ross if his spinal issue gets resolved and maybe Devonta Smith if he can step into Jeudy's shoes and produce without missing a beat.

Hubbard on the other hand I am out on. Very fun player to watch but he is similarly linear, even more unproven as a pass catcher with downright awful pass protection. But more than that: I can stomach a linear runner if they have near elite contact balance like Etienne does--Hubbard does not. He will also come into the NFL having take a very heavy load, which normally isn't a huge issue to me, but for his frame could present a real problem. Tevin Coleman like without the receiving impact (though this could definitely be improved later). The group behind Etienne for RBs is a bit murky but there are guys I am "meh" on like Kylin Hill of Mississippi State or Journey Brown of Penn State that I might consider over Hubbard. And plenty more WRs beyond the ones I already listed: Jaylen Waddle, Tarmarrion Terry, Tylan Wallace--to name a few

I can't be certain but I think the Draft will agree with me on this: with his production being as off the charts as he is, I think he is a guy that the dynasty community rates higher than the NFL will. I think he will be a 3rd round pick in the real NFL Draft--not a killer for dynasty purposes by any means: David Montgomery was a round 3 pick and a top 3 rookie pick in dynasty drafts, Kareem Hunt and Kamara were late first rounders--but also not where a "top RB prospect" gets selected.

As for drafting RBs vs WRs, it just seems to me like everyone always needs RBs. I somehow scraped to a championship last year with Zeke, Tevin Coleman and Tarik Cohen as my RBs, but had a treasure trove of WR depth of prospects and proven guys in MT, OBJ, Kupp, AJB, Sutton, Gallup, Kirk, Diontae, Cooks, etc. Balanced it out in the offseason but I had to try so hard to find deals where I wasn't getting ripped off and even those I overpaid with. Just seemed like no one really needed a WR that desperately while also having a surplus of RBs.

In a rebuild I'd try to take WR over RB if possible because a WR will still be in his prime when I'm ready to compete but otherwise I think going RB is the way to maximize value--especially considering that you generally need to pick early (whether by being bad or trading up) to land high end RB prospects whereas I think's it's easier to find quality WRs in the 2nd rounds of rookie drafts. Additionally, rookie WRs tend to struggle early (especially next season in light of Covid's impacts on preseason/camps), and are more likely to have a buy window (unless they ball out of course). 

From your comment JT might be what we agree on! He was one of those guys that was a part of my balancing out. I really think he is the next Adrian Peterson. Overpaid big to go up and get 1.1 and took him over CEH despite being a Chiefs fan (though I paid up for 1.2 as well later to get both but still value Taylor higher)

 
Last edited by a moderator:
FreeBaGeL said:
Cheap shot here. We are talking about 14 games to 16 games here. It's not like we are pro-rating out a 3 game stretch or something. And he was good enough to send a $50 million qb packing withiut a fair shake at great expense to the team. 

He was more efficient than kyler in every category in similar volume. 

Minshew and Daniel Jones may be the most underrated 2nd year qbs ever given what each did as rookies. Meanwhile guys like Baker and Kyler became untouchable headed into their 2nd year on similar or slightly worse qb play. 
Click to expand...
How is it a cheap shot? Your post about it literally says you pro-rated his numbers for the comparison. I used the same term you did. 

Where do you rank Minshew and Murray as dynasty QBs?

 
acarey50 said:
I'd agree that Rodgers in a superflex is a much better buy as I also believe he will still have a decent shelf life, but I also do not think he is likely to be a regular top 10 QB (definitely not top 5 like he was), however, that still puts him in the low end starter range and very high on the superflex options.

I think he would be worth taking a sniff - try and gauge what the other owner is looking to get. I'm not sure you necessarily need to come out guns ablazing to get him - after all he is an aging asset in a dynasty league and as was noted in the OP about him, his PPG differential was not huge over Fitz, but he should be much more consistent over the next few years. If you'd prefer to deal picks for him, come in offering a 2nd rounder, maybe add in a lower level prospect with the pick as a sweetener. Or, if it seems like he'd prefer a younger player over the pick, offer up a mid level prospect with a 3rd rounder. At least with that you are not totally lowballing, but are leaving some wiggle room for negotiation. It may end up being worth it to deal your 1st for him, but that would probably be the max I would want to offer.
Click to expand...
Big gap between myself and the other owner in terms of value of these older QBs. I floated a trade offer and he sent an offer of my 2021 3rd, Jonnu Smith and Chase Claypool for Big Ben. Then revoked the offer less than an hour later.

Imo, not much chance of making a deal without overpaying. 

ETA- He revoked the original offer and then sent another offer of Rodgers, Big Ben and two roster cloggers for Tannehill, Claypool, Jonnu Smith and my 2021 1st and 3rd.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Matt's Eagles said:
I have seen him traded for 2.10 which I thought was kind of light
Click to expand...
Well go back and look at the draft he was drafted in. Where would he be taken if you had a redraft of that draft right now? 

If he was available in this draft I would draft him in the late 1st. So that's what he's worth to me. 

 
What are people's thoughts on Melvin Gordon? In a 14 team ppr dynasty league I have the 1.13 rookie pick and the owner has proposed a swap with me adding something to my 1.13 pick. Vaughn, Moss, Gibson and Dillon are still available. I have Carson and Singletary as my top 2 RBs, we start 2 RBs.

 
northern exposure said:
What are people's thoughts on Melvin Gordon? In a 14 team ppr dynasty league I have the 1.13 rookie pick and the owner has proposed a swap with me adding something to my 1.13 pick. Vaughn, Moss, Gibson and Dillon are still available. I have Carson and Singletary as my top 2 RBs, we start 2 RBs.
Click to expand...
Since this is dynasty, I almost like Moss better than Gordon. My problem is, you have Singletary so you aren’t really adding a RB. Otherwise, I would take the Gordon deal and try not to add something on your end.

 
northern exposure said:
What are people's thoughts on Melvin Gordon? In a 14 team ppr dynasty league I have the 1.13 rookie pick and the owner has proposed a swap with me adding something to my 1.13 pick. Vaughn, Moss, Gibson and Dillon are still available. I have Carson and Singletary as my top 2 RBs, we start 2 RBs.
Click to expand...
Gordon would be your best RB and I believe he has at least two strong seasons left in him. If you fancy yourself a contender I'd take him over all those fliers.

I am editing this as I might have misread the adding something. It appears you have to add something to the 1.13, at first I thought it was the other way. I'd do it for 13, would not add a lot to it.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
I was listening to Ray Garvin last night (https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCo60Bg9HbO4ThgVmBlhR3Jw), and while I really like his podcasts, the value he places on some guys stands out to me.  Two of which are D'Andre Swift and Rondale Moore.  First Swift.  In the past I've also disregarded situation when drafting players, believing the talent always trumps situation and that is what Garvin is doing with Swift.  He likes Swift more than Dobbins and I disagree with that.   I've been burnt too many times by talented RBs landing in what I perceive bad situations, whether that is the OL, bad coaching, competition, etc.  I'm not saying Swift will be a bust, but to value him over Dobbins isn't something I'm doing.  Not to mention he was always dinged up in college.  I know Dobbins has Ingram to deal with in 2020, but I believe it won't be too long before Dobbins is the man in Baltimore.    Second, Rondale Moore.  He was hurt last year and he was spectacular two years ago.  Garvin likes him over all the other WRs in 2021 and I just don't get it.  While Ja'Marr Chase is bound to regress some because of the absence of Burrow, CEH, Jefferson, and I believe a coach left, I would still take Chase over Moore in the draft because of what I know he can and will do in the NFL.  Garvin is high on Rashod Bateman but still ranks Moore over him.  I think that is a mistake.  I believe Bateman could be the best WR in the country this year (if there is a this year).  I know smaller WRs are more of a thing in today's NFL, but Moore at 5' 9" 180 and coming off a serious injury.  No way I would rank him over Chase or Bateman.  I would also throw in Jaylen Waddle over Moore, albeit closer. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
JohnnyU said:
I was listening to Ray Garvin last night (https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCo60Bg9HbO4ThgVmBlhR3Jw), and while I really like his podcasts, the value he places on some guys stands out to me.  Two of which are D'Andre Swift and Rondale Moore.  First Swift.  In the past I've also disregarded situation when drafting players, believing the talent always trumps situation and that is what Garvin is doing with Swift.  He likes Swift more than Dobbins and I disagree with that.   I've been burnt too many times by talented RBs landing in what I perceive bad situations, whether that is the OL, bad coaching, competition, etc.  I'm not saying Swift will be a bust, but to value him over Dobbins isn't something I'm doing.  Not to mention he was always dinged up in college.  I know Dobbins has Ingram to deal with in 2020, but I believe it won't be too long before Dobbins is the man in Baltimore.    Second, Rondale Moore.  He was hurt last year and he was spectacular two years ago.  Garvin likes him over all the other WRs in 2021 and I just don't get it.  While Ja'Marr Chase is bound to digress some because of the absence of Burrow, CEH, Jefferson, and I believe a coach left, I would still take Chase over Moore in the draft because of what I know he can and will do in the NFL.  Garvin is high on Rashod Bateman but still ranks Moore over him.  I think that is a mistake.  I believe Bateman could be the best WR in the country this year (if there is a this year).  I know smaller WRs are more of a thing in today's NFL, but Moore at 5' 9" 180 and coming off a serious injury.  No way I would rank him over Chase or Bateman.  I would also throw in Jaylen Waddle over Moore, albeit closer. 
Click to expand...
Good post. I like Garvin too.

I agree with you completely on Moore, however I liked Swift over Dobbins pre draft and post draft the needled didn’t move much for me

 
Last edited by a moderator:
-jb- said:
Has anyone traded for Dalvin or Kenyan Drake in recent weeks/months?
Click to expand...
I have Kenyan Drake in a dynasty league and pulled him off the trade block for now because I wasn't getting the offers I had hoped for. I will hold him for now. I wanted a first round + more. I got a few sniffs but people backed out last minute. Hopefully this is a little helpful for you.

 
-jb- said:
Has anyone traded for Dalvin or Kenyan Drake in recent weeks/months?
Click to expand...
I'd say he's worth a late first. I traded him for McLaurin. I think the market has changed since then and Drake's value is improving. Don't forget: He's at least twenty-six (as of my trade) and only on a one-year transition deal, so his status with the Cards isn't set in stone, though if he has a year like the end of his last year, he'll be a nice fit for them. 

 
-jb- said:
Has anyone traded for Dalvin or Kenyan Drake in recent weeks/months?
Click to expand...
I traded both away.  Dalvin/Drake/1st for Saquon.

I probably wouldn't trade away Drake on his own as I value him higher than the late 1st value most seem willing to send back for him in a trade.

I know startup ADP isn't the end-all/be-all in terms of determining trade value but the descrepancy in his startup ADP vs. trade value is one of the most enormous I've ever seen.  Most value him around a late 1st in trades yet his startup ADP is 3.4 while rookie #10 goes in the 8th round in startups.

 
Thx gents. I have the first pick this year In a SuperFlex and need RB more than QB. All the RBs will be gone by the beginning of the second and I’m pretty stacked at WR. Floundering a bit on giving up #1 overall. 

 
hispeedthinmint said:
Price check on Michael Thomas in PPR? I just acquired him & thinking of trying to trade him if I can get a haul lol
Click to expand...
I traded him away straight up for Godwin earlier in the summer.  I know I didn't get fair market value, but I needed to get younger on my team.  Sacrificed a little production probably but I'm ok with that as I believe Godwin is a top WR as well.  That's where in a startup there are 0 WR's I'd draft ahead of Godwin.  He's my dynasty WR1 for a startup and I'd treat him as such owning him.  

 
I made the following offers for MT in half PPR and was turned down despite him needing RB help: Godwin and Guice; DJ Moore and Conner; Jacobs, TY and Fuller.

 
Shrugs said:
I made the following offers for MT in half PPR and was turned down despite him needing RB help: Godwin and Guice; DJ Moore and Conner; Jacobs, TY and Fuller.
Click to expand...
Damn..... he turned this down????  I couldn’t have hit the accept button fast enough!

 
hispeedthinmint said:
Price check on Michael Thomas in PPR? I just acquired him for DJ Moore, 1.11 & 4.11 2020 rookie picks & thinking of trying to trade him if I can get a haul lol
Click to expand...
I think you're going to have a hard time flipping him for a profit so I would probably keep him, unless you want to basically undo the deal you made earlier.  IMO you paid pretty close to top of the market prices for MT.  I probably would have stuck with Moore and the picks.

 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

zamboni
Should There Be A League Trade Deadline (Keeper/Dynasty)?
Replies
33
Views
778
Mitchie
M
eighsse2
General Dynasty Strategy: "Evergreen"
Replies
9
Views
932
Tonycarpenter
Tonycarpenter
Hankmoody
NFL salary cap discussion
Replies
26
Views
654
Anarchy99
Anarchy99

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 12 (members: 0, guests: 12)
Top