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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (11 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
- Start date
He is a definite candidate for a cut, restructure or trade in 2021. My guess is restructure because they have nothing else at WR but we’ll see depending on what Prof Chaos and General Disarray are thinking.
2022 Texans can easily get out of their cap mess (finding good players to replace the dead weight will be the hard part.) They have about 6 guys in their top 12 salaries that should all be cut next year that they can’t cut this year because of guaranteed money BOB handed out. Guys they won’t miss like Cobb, Mercilus, McKinney, etc. Another handful not worth their salaries like Fairbairn, Brandon Dunn, or Nick Martin for example. If they end up trading Watson it frees up over $40MM off their cap too (hollow victory.)
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Helaire-ious
Footballguy
Who has more value in PPR both now & future: Hunt or Aiyuk?
I lean Aiyuk
I lean Aiyuk
That is a tough one because of the position aspect. Hunt has such a high upside if Chubb were to get injured (even though it didn't really show for the few games Chubb missed this year it was still solid).
I just don't have confidence in the offense to provide consistent usage for Aiyuk even though he has shown he is worth it. I guess my answer depends on what position I need more on who would be more valuable to me.
I think he is a guy that is near impossible to move in a trade (both ways) because of your exact statement. Guys trying to buy are wanting a discount to take him on and guys looking to sell want an upside built into the price.
Helaire-ious
Footballguy
Definitely tough due to the positions. I suppose Aiyuk's value goes down with Deebo back full time, but does it go down enough? I don't know. I must be in the minority & believe Hunt is overrated. Like you mentioned, he didn't really do anything when Chubb was out...
Hunt still had 23 (3 rec), 15 (2), 21 (3), and 16 (2) touches in those four games with two TD's. He was fine but didn't have the ceiling some would expect. I still think he becomes a top 12 ish RB if Chubb is gone which probably has more value than Aiyuk would ever have. The problem is Chubb is there so the discussion happens. I just think SF uses such an inconsistent game plan for touches (good for the NFL not good for fantasy) that it makes it hard for me to trust their players.
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joey
Footballguy
Exactly. I own him and I might not even sell for anything less than a mid-1st. He flashed last year. He has a (theoretically) stud rookie QB throwing to him shortly. Why would I trade that away for anything less than a top 3 or 4WR prospect/dart throw? (But I know nothing about the rookies beyond the rankings I’m seeing)
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Helaire-ious
Footballguy
ffmail4me
Footballguy
Now, Aiyuk (only because of Hunt's curtain situation) but both are very talented pieces in a PPR league
Aiyuk
I just left a fairly pro-Hunt post. If my Aiyuk answer seems contradictory to that post I would understand thinking that but while I view Hunt as a big time talent he's in a crap situation for what looks to be next few years and then age starts to matter. I still put a solid value on Hunt but Aiyuk looked freaking great, like at times stunning athleticism. Some concern over QB, target load especially if defense gets back on track and they throw less but I'd still take him.
Boston
Footballguy
Generic statement here but I think that those who did not see him last year can not fully appreciate what you referred to as his "stunning athleticism".
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MAC_32
Footballguy
FWIW Hunt was battling a couple injuries while Chubb was out. Plus one of those games was being boat raced by Pittsburgh.
In a vacuum I'd go Aiyuk, but since I'm heavily invested in Deebo I specifically would not.
MAC_32
Footballguy
I know but I don't even think for a second he won't get extended. Just combo of how highly they regard the person and what he means to the way the team's offense runs.MAC_32 said:
What I've thought over a few times is how will Hunt react when Chubb signs for like $15M a year. A true backup talent or COP back would be more then fine with Hunts pay and secondary role but I really can't help but wonder if the extremely team friendly deal and secondary role won't start to eat at him when Chubb is not on his rookie contract. That's just human nature but maybe he just loves playing for the Browns so much he just won't care.
MAC_32
Footballguy
If any RB will get this group to offer an extension it'll be Chubb, but given the other priorities coming up someone(s) are going to get the short end of the stick. When presented with not extending one of Mayfield, Ward, Teller, and Chubb I think the latter is the most expendable. I think Berry will make an offer, but I also think Chubb will get more than that number on the open market.
Hunt also was given a second chance by the Browns after what could have been the end of his career. He may just feel obligated/lucky that he was given that chance and enjoy playing there under these circumstances. This situation has many facets to it that may not be involved in your typical RB situation.
I think Chubb gets extended this off-season, he won't see the open market. I wish I could remember who it was I heard on an interview last year, can't even recall if it was a ex-coach or front office person on Browns, but this person could not stop raving about Chubb the person. Talking about unsolicited raving. His life expectancy at the position is short, but he's more integral to that offense then Baker. That offense runs through the RB's.
Anyway we will agree to disagree, I'd put odds Chubb is not resigned in like 1% range. I think it's more likely Baker is not resigned.
For sure he was damaged goods and enjoys playing for the Browns but what you are saying implies the Browns were the only team to throw him a lifeline. I'm not ready to make that assumption.
Maybe not but they were the lifeline he grabbed and probably feels gratitude for it.
MAC_32
Footballguy
I agree that if a Chubb extension happens it's most likely to happen in the next few months. I also agree about the assessment of Chubb the person, that combined with his skills as a runner is why I think he could be the exception to the don't extend RB's rule (if he accepts the Browns price). But I strongly disagree about his importance to the offense v Baker - the offense runs through the RB is a false narrative that bore itself out in the latter part of the season.
IIRC, Hunt is originally from Cleveland which factored greatly into his decision to resign with them after they gave him a chance. I recall some of us worrying in his thread about how being around his friends and family circle may end up being a bad thing given his bad behavior and character issues.
At this point I am hoping Hunt gets traded. His contract is pretty attractive, I am just not sure Cleveland wouldn’t rather just hold him as Chubb injury insurance and 1-2 punch at RB though. Good for nfl football, bad for fantasy.
At this point I am hoping Hunt gets traded. His contract is pretty attractive, I am just not sure Cleveland wouldn’t rather just hold him as Chubb injury insurance and 1-2 punch at RB though. Good for nfl football, bad for fantasy.
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MAC_32
Footballguy
He's a great signing by the Browns and I view him and Chubb as the best RB duo I've ever seen. There may be better complements, but it's the two most talented RB's on same team IMO.
Hunt taking that team friendly deal was likely a combo of loyalty to Browns, love of playing for his hometown team but also I think he'd made around $2M total before he signed that deal which on the spot netted him over $5M guaranteed. Security when you don't come from much is huge.
Hope he made the right choice for himself. I remember that day he got pulled over and he sounded so damn sad and down. I do own him in dynasty but if I did not that's just the kind of person I tend to pull for both on the field and off. People probably think I'm a jerk because I tend to be vocal in my support for people like Vick, Ray Rice, Antonio Brown. I just hate seeing someone make a mistake and throw it all away especially when they did not grow up with much. Unless what they did was just horrendously awful I find myself usually hardcore pulling for these people more then I did before their transgression. The line I hear people say all the time is "so and so does not deserve to be in the NFL". What do they deserve to do, flip your hamburger? I just don't like throwing people away over a mistake or two.
rockaction
Footballguy
I think when it comes to violent mistakes against another person or sexual assault/battery claims, they might get one more chance, and it really depends. Ray Rice? Nope. No second chance after watching that. Brown? Not with his lack of penitence. Hunt? I don't know...
I think most people fall on the second/third chance of the aisle when it comes to addiction and/or maturity issues. Violence is less of a go for most of us.
But this is a little far afield.
I'm going Aiyuk over Hunt, because Aiyuk just looked every bit the part last year, and I got to see most of his games that he started. His athleticism against the Eagles that prime time night and that leap. Hoo boy. You can't coach that. And he seemed to vibe with Mullens. We'll see about Jimmy G and him, but he was an absolute stud for a bunch of games this year.
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Vick, along with Hunt, I'll give you. While what Vick did was despicable, he seemed genuinely apologetic and sincere from the beginning about what he had allowed to happen. I'm glad he was able to overcome and I think he's transformed into a great analyst.
I never really thought what Hunt did was overly egregious, personally. Should he have done it? Certainly not. You have to use better judgement than that. He was a bit of a knucklehead early on in his career but he seems to have put all that behind him.
But Rice and Brown? Not a bit of sympathy for either from me. Rice's incident was extremely hard to watch, and I don't care to see it again. And Brown has just had too many flareups and stupid moments for me to gloss over. He seems to be on his best behavior right now in Tampa, so maybe Tom and Bruce have finally straightened him out.
MAC_32
Footballguy
I think it's important to decision make based on one's own strengths and weaknesses. I think there are some areas of the game in which I am generally better than my competition, but weekly starting decisions ain't one of them. If a decision is not obvious my success rate is poor, so I build my teams with an objective to minimize these potential issues. Two good (but not great) WR's from the same team runs counter to that objective. It'd be one thing if Aiyuk were discounted right now (buy with intentions on moving one or the other), but I don't think he is.
Boone22
Footballguy
In my opinion it’s because...
1) we know SF likes to run the ball
2) Kittle is WR#1 there so Deebo and Aiyuk are fighting for WR2 and WR3 spots
3) some offenses are just NOT designed to support more than 2 pass catchers and SF appears to be one of those offenses.
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MAC_32
Footballguy
I'm not convinced that's true...yet anyway. I think Shanahan is confident in his ability to manufacture an effective running game, but if he has a better passing game then he would adjust. Plus Deebo isn't a traditional WR anyway.
I've heard people who used to work in the league say Kyle is the best in the NFL at knowing how to scheme people open so I've no doubt he can adjust. The concern I have is when their defense is healthy again how much do they need to throw if the running game and defense are working.
It is a valid point however you raise about Deebo being a non-traditional WR. He could almost be viewed as more of an extension of the running game then passing game at times.
MAC_32
Footballguy
I don't think we are going to see anything like the 2019 SF defense again anytime soon. They already lost Buckner. Now Saleh's out. They have to replace their entire cornerback depth chart, their best run defender (DJ Jones), and oft injured Tartt at safety (they have a rookie). They also have an expiring Warner that will need extended sometime in the next 12 months - and aren't in a great cap situation. As is their core is really just him, Bosa, and Ward with Greenlaw, Armstead, Kinlaw, and (maybe) Ford to compliment and they don't have many resources to rebuild around them unless they ignore the offense.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Normally I would agree but I think having someone like Kittle changes it. With that in mind I'd rather have Aiyuk.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Probably one of those dead zone guys (there are a lot actually) where nobody will pay what his owner wants and the owner would rather hold than sell too cheap. Late 1st. Nobody is paying that and nobody will take an early 2nd.
Maybe.
I turned down one counter offer that was part of a bigger deal that had OBJ coming to me but I swapped him for Corey Davis and an extra current 3rd instead. I just don't have a lot of faith in either what his role with the Browns will be, whether he comes back healthy, whether he isn't completely cuckoo anyway, and for the price I'm just not a buyer. Not that I'm a Davis truther but I just liked it better.
FFPC centric take is that people are up against cuts right now and as that constraint tightens over March, he might be had for a mid 2nd or cheaper as part of a package. In other words, if buying OBJ helps your partner get to their cutdown mark, he could probably be had for cheaper.
If he is one of those dead zone guys then in my experience packages are where the most value can be obtained, rather than a straight draft pick. But yeah late 1st early 2nd.
ffmail4me
Footballguy
He has barely been moved in my dozen dynasty leagues. Although I did move him last year when I had some injuries and was trying to 3peat (didn't unfortunately) and made this trade:
Gave: Barkley, Beckham, Harry
Got: Chubbs, Cooper, Mike Davis
In hindsight I made more a redraft trade in a dynasty league, never a great idea, but I had CMC and Barkley both out and wanted to try and 3peat. Luckily I made a few other trades that did pan out well (gave up Parker and Hamler for Claypool and traded Thielen for what became the 1.5 pick this year for example)
Boston
Footballguy
Great deal for the new Herbert Owner...locks down his QB position with a potential top 5 QB for at least a decade without giving up too much.
How would you guys value Cooper Kupp in 0.5 PPR?
On the one hand, he's going on 28, with an injury history, and on a team that sometimes neglects him in the passing game for stretches. On the other hand, he's got a new QB who loves to sling the ball, put up 92 rec for 974 yds and 3 TD last season while playing injured, and doesn't have too much competition for targets.
Would he be valued around a late first? What would you give for him?
On the one hand, he's going on 28, with an injury history, and on a team that sometimes neglects him in the passing game for stretches. On the other hand, he's got a new QB who loves to sling the ball, put up 92 rec for 974 yds and 3 TD last season while playing injured, and doesn't have too much competition for targets.
Would he be valued around a late first? What would you give for him?
kutta
Footballguy
I’ve been a Kupp fan since day one, so I may overvalue him a bit, but I wouldn’t accept a late first for him. I have three late firsts this year and would gladly give one for him.
I most likely would give him up for a top 6 pick this year, but it wouldn’t be a snap accept. Stafford brings enough intrigue for me to want to hold him and see what happens out there in LA.
jtd13
Footballguy
late 2nd round value and young is kind of no man's land at RB. To buy a guy like that now, it has to be someone expected to be replaced or gain competition, or already have competition that isn't expected to leave. Tony Pollard and Chase Edmonds* are the only 2 guys that come to mind in that description, but Pollard you have to wait for the payoff on, and Edmonds has a chance of losing most of his value by the time the NFL draft is finished.
I'd also say Damien Harris, but he's probably more of an early 2nd. If the Packers tag Jones, I'll be sending out some 2nd rounder for AJ Dillon offers.
Then there are a few guys that I'd speculatively buy, but probably not for a 2nd: Myles Gaskin (with all the reports of Miami wanting a new feature back, I'd still buy for a 3rd in case they either strike out, or they get a guy who's not very good in the passing game), Gus Edwards**, K 'Shawn Vaughn (definitely would not give a 2nd for Vaughn, but worth a stab in case it's just him vs. Jones, and Brady/Arians decide they hate Jones again during the season).
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Born to Run
Footballguy
Some good picks by jtd. Mattison may fit your criteria. I don't recall his contract situation.
Agreed in 0.5 PPR. Full PPR I could see a late 1st.
In one of my leagues Gaskin+Kupp were traded for the 1.09 a few weeks ago, would rather have the 1.09.
